The Durant Sweepstakes

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amfox1

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With LAC and GSW seemingly out due to cap issues, and MIA a long shot due to roster uncertainty, it looks to me that it's down to three - OKC, SA and BOS.
 

nighthob

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Easy, on the Fourth of July Kevin Durant will step up on stage at the Hatch Shell in the middle of the 1812 Overture and announce that he's taking his talents to Revere Beach.
 

Devizier

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I'd be interested to see the career PER (prior to signing with a new team) of the top 3 free agents per team since FA began.

I'd do it, but I'm too lazy.
Revisiting this post, but you could argue that the Celtics' recent signing of Horford ranks as one of the ten biggest free agency signings of all time. That's not as major an accomplishment as you'd think, since unrestricted free agency came into being less than thirty years ago (1988).

But, given their accomplishments at the time of signings, it's pretty clear that you could put James (twice), Shaq, Grant Hill, Chris Bosh, and Tom Chambers ahead of him. I'm not even sure about the last two. Guys like Steve Nash and Tracy McGrady had huge impact on their teams but their value hadn't been firmly established at sign time. In any event, I'd put the Horford signing ahead of other big signings like Boozer, Arenas, Odom, etc.

Most big ticket guys just don't change teams unless they're traded.
 

Ed Hillel

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It appears to be down to OKC, Spurs, and Celtics. My guess is Horford's spurning OKC hasn't helped OKC's prospects, and Pop/Stevens have impressed him a hell of a lot more than Billy Donovan. I'm almost starting to talk myself into the Celtics being the favorites here, but that's probably adrenaline talking...
 

amfox1

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With LAC and GSW seemingly out due to cap issues, and MIA a long shot due to roster uncertainty, it looks to me that it's down to three - OKC, SA and BOS.
I should point out that SA has cap issues also, with Diaw and Duncan's salaries now guaranteed. They would need to trade off approx $14mm in salary (Danny Green and Boris Diaw, most likely) and renounce Manu Ginobili.

Personally, I think if KD leaves OKC this year, he's coming to BOS. Of course, I don't think he's leaving OKC this year.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think the Celtics are going to land him. We're all reading tea leaves at this point but all the pieces are in place. Horford legitimized what Ainge and Stevens are trying to sell. And there is still plenty of flexibility to find that 3rd veteran piece if the opportunity arises.
 

Ed Hillel

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I mean, if that report about him flying to Boston last night is true, how can that not be seen as a pretty big deal?
 

tbrep

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Regardless of whether he gets KD or not, Ainge has done one of the all-time great rebuilding jobs. He maximised the KG-Allen-Pierce era such that the Cs were title contenders as recently as 2011-2012 and still a playoff team a year later.

Then, with only one lottery season, has the team back in the playoffs for two years with clever assortment of cost-controlled assets and one of the best head coaching hires. And now the team has a chance to be either a top-3 seed (no KD) or the Eastern Conference favourite (with KD).

Oh, and there's the ability to develop 2-3 franchise players with the 2016-18 BKN picks, trade them for another All-Star or do a bit of both. Yikes
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yeah the Crawford rumor was bullshit. The Warriors aren't doing anything until Durant decides. But him being on the move seems to be real...

 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think the Celtics are going to land him. We're all reading tea leaves at this point but all the pieces are in place. Horford legitimized what Ainge and Stevens are trying to sell. And there is still plenty of flexibility to find that 3rd veteran piece if the opportunity arises.
If Durant comes to Boston, he would be the best player of a team that has a realistic chance of winning multiple titles over the next seven or eight years. What other team is set up for the long-run like the Cs (thanks Danny!).

Were that to happen, he would be in the conversation as one of the best players ever. Plus, he's going to be the guy with the ball in his hand with the game on the line.

If he goes to GSW, he's just another piece.

To me, it's a no-brainer. Too bad it's not up to me.

Will KD give me a wedding present?
Maybe he'll show up to announce he's coming to Boston? Congrats on your nuptials.
 

SoxFanInPdx

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I think the Celtics are going to land him. We're all reading tea leaves at this point but all the pieces are in place. Horford legitimized what Ainge and Stevens are trying to sell. And there is still plenty of flexibility to find that 3rd veteran piece if the opportunity arises.

IF they do land Durant, I wouldn't be shocked if they made another run at Butler.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Revisiting this post, but you could argue that the Celtics' recent signing of Horford ranks as one of the ten biggest free agency signings of all time. That's not as major an accomplishment as you'd think, since unrestricted free agency came into being less than thirty years ago (1988).

But, given their accomplishments at the time of signings, it's pretty clear that you could put James (twice), Shaq, Grant Hill, Chris Bosh, and Tom Chambers ahead of him. I'm not even sure about the last two. Guys like Steve Nash and Tracy McGrady had huge impact on their teams but their value hadn't been firmly established at sign time. In any event, I'd put the Horford signing ahead of other big signings like Boozer, Arenas, Odom, etc.

Most big ticket guys just don't change teams unless they're traded.

This is the kinda stuff that scares the living bejesus out of me. If these are the expectations for Horford some are setting themselves up for a major disappointment. Horford is a nice piece, a defensive presence and pick-n-pop offensive player........but he isn't an impact guy. He's not a game changer as we saw in our playoff series. I only hope expectations temper some......there is a reason why Atlanta choose Dwight Howard over him and our only real competition for his services were the Wizards.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Or Hayward since they would no longer have the space to sign him outright next season if I'm looking at the numbers right.
This is where expiring contracts and our flood of our non-Nets draft picks carry tremendous value. I'd look for Ainge to structure the backend of our roster in a fashion to utilize this flexibility in bringing in someone like a Haywood at the deadline. If Durant does sign, I can see Sullinger/Zeller return on a 1-year high dollar deal if they don't have a FA offer they like for this purpose along with Amir's option.
 

Devizier

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Horford is a nice piece, a defensive presence and pick-n-pop offensive player........but he isn't an impact guy.
Re-read my post; all of those attributes, however you want to tabulate them, still gets you one of the top ten free agent signings of all time.

That says more about free agency and unrealistic expectations of that process than anything else.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Re-read my post; all of those attributes, however you want to tabulate them, still gets you one of the top ten free agent signings of all time.

That says more about free agency and unrealistic expectations of that process than anything else.
Oh I see now. Yes, I agree and the way the CBA has been structured it has never been a good strategy to be under the cap to spend on FA when you can't offer nearly as great a package as their current team. The way Stern had built this brand globally by incentivizing stars to remain with one team over the years always played against these teams looking to lure players away. Generally speaking the only star players changing teams via FA had some pretty severe flaws to their game or reputation. I don't know to what degree Horford falls in this category but he certainly does.......his team choose Dwight Howard over him. That isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.
 

Devizier

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Oh I see now. Yes, I agree and the way the CBA has been structured it has never been a good strategy to be under the cap to spend on FA when you can't offer nearly as great a package as their current team. The way Stern had built this brand globally by incentivizing stars to remain with one team over the years always played against these teams looking to lure players away. Generally speaking the only star players changing teams via FA had some pretty severe flaws to their game or reputation. I don't know to what degree Horford falls in this category but he certainly does.......his team choose Dwight Howard over him. That isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.
I'm not going to read too much into the Howard signing. The big red flag is the pectoral injuries (a long term concern?) but Horford and Millsap have fairly similar games and Howard comes a whole lot cheaper. I'm assuming Atlanta will use that extra dough to squeeze Millsap under the tax when he exercises his ETO next year.
 

PedroKsBambino

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there is a reason why Atlanta choose Dwight Howard over him and our only real competition for his services were the Wizards.
HRB, you keep repeating this and I'm puzzled why...do you have specific reasons to discard all the reports about interest from others ,including OKC and Atlanta up to the end?
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB, you keep repeating this and I'm puzzled why...do you have specific reasons to discard all the reports about interest from others ,including OKC and Atlanta up to the end?
I think Horford knows OKC is going to lose both Westbrook and Durant by next summer so I wouldn't view them as a desirable location being in OKC and with their uncertain future. Atlanta is the one who didn't prioritize him because they knew the market was thin. They underestimated Ainge's desire but he definitely wasn't there guy or he'd have already been signed rather than be dicked around with the past couple weeks.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Horford's father said it was between Atlanta and Boston at the end(which counters Aldrige's report late last night that it went down to the wire with the Boston/Wizards). Reports were out that Atlanta had a trade lined up for Millsap to bring Horford back.

I would be surprised if Atlanta values Horford over Millsap but I'm sure the 5 years of Horford over 1 of Millsap plus the return from trading Millsap in draft picks/depth is how Atlanta looks at it.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think Horford knows OKC is going to lose both Westbrook and Durant by next summer so I wouldn't view them as a desirable location being in OKC and with their uncertain future. Atlanta is the one who didn't prioritize him because they knew the market was thin. They underestimated Ainge's desire but he definitely wasn't there guy or he'd have already been signed rather than be dicked around with the past couple weeks.
Yes, but you keep saying he didn't have other options. Your own post above makes clear OKC would have wanted him, but he didn't want to go there---that is still an option for him.

I even agree wtih you that Horford is being overrated in these posts, but you don't help your credibility by misstating his FA situation so consistently. And you have been, blatantly and repeatedly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes, but you keep saying he didn't have other options. Your own post above makes clear OKC would have wanted him, but he didn't want to go there---that is still an option for him.

I even agree wtih you that Horford is being overrated in these posts, but you don't help your credibility by misstating his FA situation so consistently. And you have been, blatantly and repeatedly.
I disagree with you. Horford didn't have many serious suitors. The one you state as the primary one dicked him around over a few million. If he was their target he would have been signed sealed and delivered on July 1st.......he wasn't, Howard was. They choose Howard over him I don't understand how this can even be debated.
 

nighthob

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Yes, but you keep saying he didn't have other options. Your own post above makes clear OKC would have wanted him, but he didn't want to go there---that is still an option for him.

I even agree wtih you that Horford is being overrated in these posts, but you don't help your credibility by misstating his FA situation so consistently. And you have been, blatantly and repeatedly.
I think you may be misreading it, as Devizier pointed out with his list, and others of us have been saying forever, the NBA system is designed to keep players in place.

In reality it was only the last couple of CBAs that made free agent movement more likely (by narrowing the differences in annual salary), and now Boston has landed an all star and, arguably, one of the top ten free agent signings ever. But it's not due to Horford being a top ten player so much as that that real free agency in the NBA is 28 years old, and for 20+ of those years leaving your current team carried a significant financial penalty.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think you may be misreading it, as Devizier pointed out with his list, and others of us have been saying forever, the NBA system is designed to keep players in place.

In reality it was only the last couple of CBAs that made free agent movement more likely (by narrowing the differences in annual salary), and now Boston has landed an all star and, arguably, one of the top ten free agent signings ever. But it's not due to Horford being a top ten player so much as that that real free agency in the NBA is 28 years old, and for 20+ of those years leaving your current team carried a significant financial penalty.
I think there's two points being made, and I doubt you and I disagree on either.

First, I was noting that HRB's claim there was no competition for Horford is silly and counterfactual.

Second, on Horford's value, I agree with you and Dev (and with HRB) on him being a good get but not a superstar. Plus that, given the history of FA, he still may be among the bigger team-changers through pure (non-sign and trade) FA ever.
 

Cellar-Door

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I disagree with you. Horford didn't have many serious suitors. The one you state as the primary one dicked him around over a few million. If he was their target he would have been signed sealed and delivered on July 1st.......he wasn't, Howard was. They choose Howard over him I don't understand how this can even be debated.
OKC wanted him but he said no once he couldn't get guarantees KD and Westbrook would be there, Washington offered him a full max, Detroit supposedly made him a big offer (maybe the max) ATL may have dicked him around on a 5 year max, but they still offered him 5/136 and looked for trades for Millsap to clear space.
Horford had a very good market, and that's just the few teams he'd agree to talk to.
 

E5 Yaz

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Heat meeting is over and he's meeting with OKC again. Bad sign or is he giving them a chance keep him?
Always been in the plans. After meeting with them first, they agreed to meet again when all was meetings had been held
 

PedroKsBambino

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I don't think it's much of a sign in any direction---he wants to be fair to OKC and manage perceptions there if he's going to leave, and if he's going to stay it's the meeting where he has the most leverage to ask for whatever it is he might want.
 

BigSoxFan

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Heat meeting is over and he's meeting with OKC again. Bad sign or is he giving them a chance keep him?
He wants to tell them in person that he's going to the Celtics. Nothing would surprise me at this point but all the corresponding moves do seem to indicate that he may be down to OKC, Boston, and GS. I would put Boston in the 2nd pole position at this point but that obviously means very little.
 

axx

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GS makes the most sense to me if he leaves. Best chance of winning a title and it seems to me he'd fit pretty nicely there.

Westbrook has one more year on his deal so maybe Durant goes back to OKC but only for one year. And then he gets to do this again!
 

JakeRae

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GS makes the most sense to me if he leaves. Best chance of winning a title and it seems to me he'd fit pretty nicely there.

Westbrook has one more year on his deal so maybe Durant goes back to OKC but only for one year. And then he gets to do this again!
If he wants to go to the Warriors, he has to go now. They won't have the cap space in a year. If he re-ups in OKC on a 1&1 and then he and Westbrook decide to part ways, Boston is probably the presumptive favorite to sign him next offseason. Incidentally, staying in OKC for one more year and then leaving for Boston is probably the non-Warriors option he has that maximizes his title winning odds.
 

mikeot

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If he wants to go to the Warriors, he has to go now. They won't have the cap space in a year. If he re-ups in OKC on a 1&1 and then he and Westbrook decide to part ways, Boston is probably the presumptive favorite to sign him next offseason. Incidentally, staying in OKC for one more year and then leaving for Boston is probably the non-Warriors option he has that maximizes his title winning odds.
Then there's the alpha dog factor, how much he wants to be The Man, one more factor C's have over the Curry Dubs. .
 
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