The Durant Sweepstakes

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HomeRunBaker

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If he wants to go to the Warriors, he has to go now. They won't have the cap space in a year. If he re-ups in OKC on a 1&1 and then he and Westbrook decide to part ways, Boston is probably the presumptive favorite to sign him next offseason. Incidentally, staying in OKC for one more year and then leaving for Boston is probably the non-Warriors option he has that maximizes his title winning odds.
This^^^^

I've got OKC as the heavy favorite on a 1+1 with the Celtics and Warriors the others in the mix. As you say, the 1+1 is not a death knell to us as we are in prime position next year while also having another season to see how Durant's foot holds up which nobody is talking about but to me is a pretty decent sized concern. Multiple surgeries plus a minor reinjury of a foot for a 7-foot or close to 7-foot player is something to take seriously.
 

E5 Yaz

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With the cap going up again, will teams not in the hunt this year become possible Durant suitors next off-season?
 

PedroKsBambino

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How many games will GS with Durant win next year? 75? Wow...that would just be a devastating team.
 

mauf

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Haralabos voulgaris heavily hinting he's been told Durant is going to GSW.
The guy is famous for betting on NBA games. If clubs or players have relationships with him, such that he has inside information on a major free-agent signing, that's a real problem for the league.

My guess is he doesn't know anything. Of course, he does know the league and its players well; perhaps he's right that KD will sign with the Warriors, then test the market again next summer, probably after having crossed "win a championship" off his bucket list.
 

DJnVa

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I was about to ask who this guy is. He bets on games? That's his thing?
 

tbrep

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He's been on the BS Report a few times - Bill really likes him (not sure if that adds to his credibility or not).
 

PedroKsBambino

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He's a pro gambler made tons betting NBA. If he has a source it's probably in PR, client relations or Nike.
Yes, I would imagine he has a pretty good network of sources who know that he will never, ever sell them out. I just hope he's wrong on this one!
 

MillarTime

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It's amazing how quickly I went from thinking the Celts has no chance at Durant to thinking they had a great chance. I will actually be genuinely disappointed if @Haralabob is right (he probably is).
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
What makes you think he hasn't already?
IANAG: This early, wouldnt any serious money cause some movement on the lines? Would think that someone would have picked up on that? (I realize, you'd spread the bets around town/interwebs, but someone would talk to someone......)

EDIT: or what E5Y just said, much more succinctly than I ever could.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Just to be clear: the Warriors are not remotely capped out next summer. The 2017 cap is estimated at $110M. Right now they have exactly *two vet players* under contract for next season: Draymond and Klay at a combined $33.2M. Throw in about $1M each for their three kids (Looney, McCaw, Damian Jones), $16M for Curry's cap hold, and $3M for unused roster spots, and that's like $57M to play with if they sign only one-year contracts this offseason.

They could potentially sign Ezeli to a $12-15M multi year deal, and still fit Durant at his projected $37.8M max contract (and then max out Steph with his Bird rights).
 

Cellar-Door

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Well this news would ruin the fun. Is it good for business to have a super team the likes of which we've never seen?
Probably, this year's Warriors was good for business.
Also decent chance somebody gets hurt and they come down to merely the best team in the league.
 

Clears Cleaver

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if true, you basically have a two team league. interest in the other 28 teams would be negligible
 

JakeRae

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Just to be clear: the Warriors are not remotely capped out next summer. The 2017 cap is estimated at $110M. Right now they have exactly *two vet players* under contract for next season: Draymond and Klay at a combined $33.2M. Throw in about $1M each for their three kids (Looney, McCaw, Damian Jones), $16M for Curry's cap hold, and $3M for unused roster spots, and that's like $57M to play with if they sign only one-year contracts this offseason.

They could potentially sign Ezeli to a $12-15M multi year deal, and still fit Durant at his projected $37.8M max contract (and then max out Steph with his Bird rights).
The Warriors have, probably, the best roster in the game. They are competing for a title next year. If they do not land Durant, they will do everything they can right now to maximize their chances of winning a title next year. That means matching Barnes. It means signing the deal they seem to have in place with Crawford. It means keeping/matching Ezeli. It probably means keeping Speights and Barbosa. When all is said and done, that cap space they project to have now will have vanished.

Or, the shorter version: the Warriors are too good to play the don't commit money and pray for a superstar next year game.
 

bowiac

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You can't get any serious action on those "where will Durant go" bets being spread. They all have very low limits, more or less for this reason. Someone is always going to know an hour or two (or more) in advance.
 

amfox1

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Just to be clear: the Warriors are not remotely capped out next summer.
But they are capped out now. In order to sign KD now, they would need to trade Bogut for a draft pick, plus renounce Barnes, Speights, Ezeli, Barbosa, Varejao, Rush, Kuzmic and O'Neil. After signing KD, they would have the Room Mid-Level exception and minimum salaries to fill out roster spots 10-15.
 

mauf

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if true, you basically have a two team league. interest in the other 28 teams would be negligible
Meh, there's never more than half a dozen teams that start the season with a realistic chance at winning the championship. Cutting that down to three or four, or even to two, wouldn't radically alter the NBA's business model.
 

The Big Red Kahuna

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If Haralabob is correct.... When can teams officially sign the FA's and do we know how good IT and KO's emoticon skills are??
 

Nick Kaufman

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I hope that if Durant goes to GS, the league learns their lesson and lifts cap contracts so we don't get have super teams like that again.
 

Clears Cleaver

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ehhhh, I disagree. The Bulls were a different superteam, much more organic. This feels collusiatory. and not interesting at all. The NBA regular season already is impossible to care about. now the only games of note will be the Warriors v the Cavs. and neither of those teams has to ever really try for 82 games becasue they will cakewalk through the playoffs no matter what seed they are. We saw it this past year with only the finals and the OKC_GSW playoff series even remotely interesting and well played.

And why would a team who now knows they cannot compete ever ever pay these marginal FAs? Just go under the cap materially and pay the existing players the tax, thus not be locked into long-term deals on crappy players. Just accumulate draft picks, hope you get lucky, etc.

what a terrible model
 

Laser Show

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Beaten. But yea, that's no good. Best to temper expectations I think.

Man would the NBA suck if that happened.
 

Van Everyman

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If I'm Durant and I'm leaning GS, I def. pause a bit before I pull the trigger. It's one thing to collude with other players to build a super team a la the Heat. It's another thing to bolt to a franchise that is already a super team – esp. one that's conference rival that just set a regular season record for wins.

I'm not saying that would stop Durant from joining the Warriors. But if he does there will be no shortage of heat coming his way.
 

RoyHobbs

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I'd love for the guy to be on the team I root for, guys can go wherever they want for whatever reasons float their boats, etc. etc., but it's gonna be sad to see a pretty likeable/benign guy get depised by pretty much every hoops fan outside of the Bay Area.
 

Laser Show

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NBA source: Kevin Durant had a phone conversation with Warriors exec Jerry West yesterday.
 

In my lifetime

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Sorry meant capped max contracts.
I made the same point several weeks ago. The NBA free agent system is a very poor one. Since unattractive teams (for whatever reason - location, noncompetitive, etc) can't outbid attractive teams, the NBA has a system where the only way for an unattractive team to substantially improve is to tank or get very lucky or be smart enough to draft a sleeper who turns into a stud or fleece another team (see - Nets) via trade. Players colluding to form "super teams" destroys competitive balance. Durant on GS would turn the NBA season into a "how many games can 1 team win", followed by a let's hope a couple GSW get hurt so the playoffs are interesting. I am not interested in that type of a NBA season. So it is time to do away with the max contract and use a more firm cap instead. Of course, this can only get done with a long negotiation. However, I am not sure who wouldn't want it ----- both parties will have something to like and hate. Players would love to do away with max contracts and owners would love to have more of a fixed cap.
 
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