The First Base Dilemma

[FanSinceBoggs]

Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer

Hanley Ramirez entered the night with a .383 slugging percentage, which ranked 72nd among 88 players who qualify for the AL batting title. He's 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and has left five men on base.

How long do the Red Sox put up with this? If Ramirez doesn't improve by the trade deadline, are we looking for a replacement? Let's say the Red Sox stick with him for the entire season and he shows no improvement. Can they bring him back in 2017 after two years of offensive futility (91 OPS+ in 2015 and about the same OPS+ for 2016, along with negative WAR for both years according to Fangraphs).

Ramirez has had a weird career as an offensive player. His best years came in his early 20s, he then declined when he entered his prime. Yet, his last two seasons with the Dodgers were very good.

They will probably let Ramirez play out the year as the starter at first base; trading for a first baseman with Ramirez on the roster is kind of complicated. But if I'm Dave Dombrowski, I'm not bringing Ramirez back in 2017 if I get another 90 OPS+ and negative WAR from him. At some point, the Red Sox may need to accept the contract as a sunk cost and find a better player who will help the team win games.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

Problem with this approach is it's the same one we're taking with Pablo. We have 2 unmovable, high-priced contracts.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Hanley may well be headed for shoulder surgery before 2016 ends.

 

[Rasputin]

Problem with this approach is it's the same one we're taking with Pablo. We have 2 unmovable, high-priced contracts.

Management has demonstrated that they are willing to eat contracts if necessary.

I think that means the answer to the question is "Until some combination of Travis Shaw, Sam Travis, Rafael Devers, and Yoan Moncada make Ramirez the worst option."

That basically means they have play third, first, and DH better.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

The last thing they should be spending any resources on is a new 1B. Hanley has been kind of streaky this year, starting nicely, going cold, strong good chunk of May and then cold again. He's running the bases well, playing good D and is seemingly a positive influence on the team. He could have another nagging injury or he could be in decline but let's worry about that, IMO, later. Hanley isn't the problem with the team right now or forecasting the rest of the season.

 

[Pilgrim]

Hanley actually has a 1.000 OPS against lefties this year. Maybe at some point he fits the team as a platoon 1b/DH. You could probably make a great platoon out of him and Shaw this year, but you would have to find a full time 3b, and thats pretty far down on the shopping list.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

He needs to be hidden down to 7th for the time being.

JBJ Young/LF Hanley Shaw catcher 5-9

 

[reggiecleveland]

Shows how hard it is to be a GM. My son buys all those preseason baseball magazines. All of them point to Hanley as most likley being a terrible 1b in the field but are confident he will hit well enough to be Ortiz replacement.

He looks lost. He is two years or more away from elite hitter Hanley. In that time he beefed up to try and be 40 homer Hanley, then slimmed down and pushed the ball to right as single hitter Hanley. It is possible he has made so many changes it will be hard for him to recover his stroke.I was hoping that he would remind me of Manny in more ways than having too many dreads for his helmet to fit.

 

[Devizier]

The offense has been scuffling for the past couple of weeks, and so I can see how replacing Ramirez would be attractive. But this is one of those weird seasons where first basemen across the league have been fairly unproductive. Unless the Red Sox are willing to absorb even the subsidized contracts of a player like Votto or Mauer, I don't see any surefire upgrades available. And even then, we're talking about pretty marginal upgrades in exchange for a substantial cash outlay. Given how rapidly Pujols has aged, I would be extremely leery of going that route.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Ho looks lost.

He may be sucking at the plate for a good amount of money, but that's just rude.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Hanley actually has a 1.000 OPS against lefties this year. Maybe at some point he fits the team as a platoon 1b/DH. You could probably make a great platoon out of him and Shaw this year, but you would have to find a full time 3b, and thats pretty far down on the shopping list.

This is an excellent idea, all around, except for the DH part.

Platooning Shaw/Hanley at 1B seems a great way to get max value out of Hanley over the next 2 years. He's still raking (mostly) against (some) LHP, and that should allow the Sox to recoup a little value without having to watch him wave feebly at sliders fading down and away.

Plus, as the short-side 1B platoon, it would keep that $22M vesting option for 2019 from triggering with 1050 PA in 2017-18, regardless whether Hanley gets injured or has shoulder surgery.

Platooning probably wouldn't make Hanley a happy camper, but as a veteran he has to understand his performance will dictate his playing time.

It works really well, so long as Moncada doesn't get traded for pitching and proves able to play 3B credibly.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Hanley actually has a 1.000 OPS against lefties this year. Maybe at some point he fits the team as a platoon 1b/DH. You could probably make a great platoon out of him and Shaw this year, but you would have to find a full time 3b, and thats pretty far down on the shopping list.

I think you addressed one of the issues. I agree that the Red Sox are locked into Hanley for the rest of this season as the starter at first base. But let's say the status quo is maintained throughout the season, meaning that Hanley finishes the season with a 90 OPS+ and negative WAR (and thus duplicates his pathetic 2015 season). In that scenario, I think the Red Sox bring back Hanley Ramirez next year as a part time player, using him exclusively against LHP, and platooning him with either Sandoval or Shaw.

Maybe Hanley is nothing more than a platoon player at this point of his career. Sure, that would represent a steep decline but we have seen that kind of decline in other players: Carl Crawford, for example.

It would be embarrassing to use a 39 million dollar platoon next year at DH or first base (Sandoval at 17 million and Hanley at 22 million) but the Red Sox may be headed in that direction. Fortunately, the Red Sox can take solace in the fact that the GM who signed these bums is no longer here. And, as Buzzkill pointed out, platooning Hanley would keep the 2019 option from vesting, a savings of 22 million.

 

[reggiecleveland]

He may be sucking at the plate for a good amount of money, but that's just rude.

Haha
Sorry Hanley.

 

[Natick 2 wake forest]

Hanley will be better batting in the 7 hole and he's played 1b way better than anyone projected ...stick with him this year and see how it goes down .I think he's dealing with a rib strain .