The Future of Alex Cora in Boston

marcoscutaro

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Duran was a lot less consistent last year and his September looks an awful lot like his cold streaks last season. What seems to be affecting him disproportionately is that his legs seem to be tired - they haven’t been sending him (though I think he has the green light so he hasn’t been running) and he’s been getting tagged out more. This is probably something that I would look to if I was deciding to sell high on him, because his early thirties are going to look a lot like this. He hit a career high in home runs but I really think that’s an outlier.

i don’t know that you can or could blame the lack of hitting on Cora but it’s the lack of energy from the team during ABs that he should be dealing with. Like we all know they’ve been dogshit at the plate as a whole for quite a while now. Carlson had a 10 pitch AB from Bello which Bello was able to get out of but I thought about that Valdez AB where he forced the pitcher into throwing a slider to Rafaela who hit it out right after. The Stats tweet quoted upthread is what I’m talking about, even if they’re ice cold they should be making life difficult for the pitcher instead of handing them single digit and 10 pitch innings for three outs.

How much of that is on Cora, I couldn’t tell you, but they all look miserable out there and while they’ve been playing badly, it’s not like they’re the White Sox. They’re a game under .500!
 

ShaneTrot

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As of September 20th, Cora’s winning percentage in the last two Septembers is 0.289. 14 wins and 31 losses. 2024 White Sox have a .235 winning percentage.
 

8slim

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As of September 20th, Cora’s winning percentage in the last two Septembers is 0.289. 14 wins and 31 losses. 2024 White Sox have a .235 winning percentage.
Cora hasn’t had a particularly good September since 2018. I guess we’ll just try again next season. 6th times a charm and all.
 

streeter88

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Cora hasn’t had a particularly good September since 2018. I guess we’ll just try again next season. 6th times a charm and all.
Agreed. I really think Cora is not a good manager and mostly fails to get the best out of his team. However, I actually respected his tirade in the afternoon game today - might have lit a fire for the team as they swept the doubleheader, and hit and pitched well as a team maybe for the first time in September. Too little too late, but at least he did something.
 

Van Everyman

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I really think Cora is not a good manager and mostly fails to get the best out of his team.
I really don’t know how you can say that when his teams have played at a very high-level for long stretches of almost all of the last four seasons. What isn’t clear is whether Cora has the ability to sustain it, either because of the depth of his roster (which is not his fault) or because he burns guys out midseason (which would be his fault).
 

streeter88

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I really don’t know how you can say that when his teams have played at a very high-level for long stretches of almost all of the last four seasons. What isn’t clear is whether Cora has the ability to sustain it, either because of the depth of his roster (which is not his fault) or because he burns guys out midseason (which would be his fault).
No, I can't say it definitively. But the main point of my post was that I respected what he did in the first game of the doubleheader. Edit: by the way, what would consitute a "long stretch" of playing at a very high level?
 

simplicio

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AJ Hinch seems to be able to get more out of a roster that doesn't seem all that great.
He's had fantastic pitching to work with in the second half, deployed unusually with 25% more bullpen innings in the second half than anyone else (cause they sold their starters and have a 2 man rotation of Skubal and Montero).

It's going to get them into the postseason, but I'm guessing the current wear on the pen combined with the familiarity of 5 or 7 game series in October is going to get them crushed in a hurry.

But yeah, innings since the ASB from pitchers with 2nd half ERA over 5:
Detroit: 26
Boston: 201
 

8slim

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I'm not saying it's all Cora's fault... however, the last time a Sox manager had three consecutive losing seasons was Butch Hobson (1992-94). Prior to that: Joe Cronin from 1943-45 (I'm assuming managing through WWII gets one some grace). Cora's a few losses away from joining a pretty lousy club.

Cora really has received unprecedented rope. The Sox have fired title-winning managers who had better on-field performance than Cora in just the past two decades (Farrell, Francona).

Yes, the offense went into a deep funk late in the season. Yet we still have the 3rd most runs scored in the AL. The starting rotation is going to end up being remarkably healthy. We'll have 3 starters with 30+ starts (which tends to be a benchmark for a playoff team) and another with 26. And those 4 will have a collective ERA+ better than league average. The back end of the pen was generally good.

I'm not clamoring for Cora's removal. I do think he's escaping more poor performance-based vitriol than any Sox manager of my lifetime.
 

8slim

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It's because fewer people care. Honest truth. Fans have checked out.
I actually considered that. For three years running most people stopped watching as the team began their second half swoon and didn't see first-hand the epically awful Septembers. Makes sense.
 

joe dokes

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I'm not saying it's all Cora's fault... however, the last time a Sox manager had three consecutive losing seasons was Butch Hobson (1992-94). Prior to that: Joe Cronin from 1943-45 (I'm assuming managing through WWII gets one some grace). Cora's a few losses away from joining a pretty lousy club.

Cora really has received unprecedented rope. The Sox have fired title-winning managers who had better on-field performance than Cora in just the past two decades (Farrell, Francona).

Yes, the offense went into a deep funk late in the season. Yet we still have the 3rd most runs scored in the AL. The starting rotation is going to end up being remarkably healthy. We'll have 3 starters with 30+ starts (which tends to be a benchmark for a playoff team) and another with 26. And those 4 will have a collective ERA+ better than league average. The back end of the pen was generally good.

I'm not clamoring for Cora's removal. I do think he's escaping more poor performance-based vitriol than any Sox manager of my lifetime.
First of all, every year is different. I think saying "3 (or 4) straight losing seasons" without looking at the "why's" of each season is bad team-running. I don't think it's terribly productive to run through all of it again, but if someone can't see the differences, that's on them.

Francona's firing was sui generis. Farrell *probably* got the gate due to his inability to connect with younger players. (No, there was nothing specific. But he was definitely a "communicate through the lineup card" kind of guy, an approach which can reasonably be seen as no longer optimal.) As for Cora, I suspect management sees it as having saddled him with limited players.

They just swept a doubleheader from a team fighting for a playoff spot in the game after the probable final nail was driven into their coffin. I suspect that whatever goes into that happening is one of the main attractions to him.
 

8slim

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First of all, every year is different. I think saying "3 (or 4) straight losing seasons" without looking at the "why's" of each season is bad team-running. I don't think it's terribly productive to run through all of it again, but if someone can't see the differences, that's on them.

Francona's firing was sui generis. Farrell *probably* got the gate due to his inability to connect with younger players. (No, there was nothing specific. But he was definitely a "communicate through the lineup card" kind of guy, an approach which can reasonably be seen as no longer optimal.) As for Cora, I suspect management sees it as having saddled him with limited players.

They just swept a doubleheader from a team fighting for a playoff spot in the game after the probable final nail was driven into their coffin. I suspect that whatever goes into that happening is one of the main attractions to him.
Of course every year is different. And we all know the whys, hence me saying that it's not all his fault, nor am I clamoring for his removal.

But the trend is that his teams have largely been mediocre-to-terrible down the stretch in 5 of his 6 seasons here.
 

joe dokes

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Of course every year is different. And we all know the whys, hence me saying that it's not all his fault, nor am I clamoring for his removal.

But the trend is that his teams have largely been mediocre-to-terrible down the stretch in 5 of his 6 seasons here.
Got it. I think that trend would make his firing a defensible move (though one I disagree with); just like Sale's previous 5 seasons made trading him defensible.
 
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lexrageorge

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Of course every year is different. And we all know the whys, hence me saying that it's not all his fault, nor am I clamoring for his removal.

But the trend is that his teams have largely been mediocre-to-terrible down the stretch in 5 of his 6 seasons here.
Cora wasn't the manager in 2020. The Sox were good down the stretch the 2 seasons they made the playoffs, and have been awful in the 4 they did not.

From all accounts, Breslow was given the necessary latitude to make a decision on Cora. It's notable that he decided to go with extend. It's a decision that has obvious visibility with the fan base, so it's not a minor one by any means, no matter what one thinks of a manager's influence on winning and losing games (which I think is fairly minor, but can make a couple of games difference in the standings over the course of 162, which is not nothing). There's a lot of stuff that goes on that we never see (see Francona's book for some examples), so my best guess it that Breslow trusts Cora to do whatever is necessary to manage the team in 2025.
 

8slim

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Cora wasn't the manager in 2020. The Sox were good down the stretch the 2 seasons they made the playoffs, and have been awful in the 4 they did not.

From all accounts, Breslow was given the necessary latitude to make a decision on Cora. It's notable that he decided to go with extend. It's a decision that has obvious visibility with the fan base, so it's not a minor one by any means, no matter what one thinks of a manager's influence on winning and losing games (which I think is fairly minor, but can make a couple of games difference in the standings over the course of 162, which is not nothing). There's a lot of stuff that goes on that we never see (see Francona's book for some examples), so my best guess it that Breslow trusts Cora to do whatever is necessary to manage the team in 2025.
Sox were 29-27 in regular season August/September/October 2021, which is... meh. Hence my comment about 5 of 6 seasons. Many rosters, different levels of health, similar mediocre-to-lousy results since 2018.

Obviously, Breslow believes Cora can do well in 2025. Fingers crossed.
 

ShaneTrot

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The Boston media loves Cora for some reason. They gave Mayo more shit this summer before he even coached a game. I don't think he has been given great rosters but his teams have been poor defensively, and collapse in the second half. I think he does not manage his bullpen well. I am mystified that Garcia and Sims were awful after Cora and Bailey got a hold of them at the deadline. He also seems to love Wong who is a decent hitter but an awful catcher.
 

joe dokes

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The Boston media loves Cora for some reason. They gave Mayo more shit this summer before he even coached a game. I don't think he has been given great rosters but his teams have been poor defensively, and collapse in the second half. I think he does not manage his bullpen well. I am mystified that Garcia and Sims were awful after Cora and Bailey got a hold of them at the deadline. He also seems to love Wong who is a decent hitter but an awful catcher.
Isn't "Poor defensively" a pretty big part of "not given great rosters"? (As is having to play not-Trevor Story at SS and god-knows-who at 2B for long stretches.)
No argument about Wong's defense, but 5th highest OPS among MLB catchers who have played more than half a season (81 games) seems better than "decent."
 

lexrageorge

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The Boston media loves Cora for some reason. They gave Mayo more shit this summer before he even coached a game. I don't think he has been given great rosters but his teams have been poor defensively, and collapse in the second half. I think he does not manage his bullpen well. I am mystified that Garcia and Sims were awful after Cora and Bailey got a hold of them at the deadline. He also seems to love Wong who is a decent hitter but an awful catcher.
Garcia pitched all of 11 innings prior to going on the IL, and has actually been much better his last 4 innings than his prior 8.

Sims is a bit of a WTF case, but he may be perhaps overrated. He was at best league average for the Reds, which may not translate all that well in Fenway. But the Sox got him for nothing, so who cares?

Wong is who they have on the roster. Danny Jansen is a black hole at the plate, which is a problem for a team that went cold at the plate.
 

simplicio

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Isn't "Poor defensively" a pretty big part of "not given great rosters"? (As is having to play not-Trevor Story at SS and god-knows-who at 2B for long stretches.)
No argument about Wong's defense, but 5th highest OPS among MLB catchers who have played more than half a season (81 games) seems better than "decent."
It may be hard to overstate how much Wong's defense has cost us. Umpire Scorecards has a 47 run gap in missed calls between us and the MFY, and most of that is down to them having two excellent defensive catchers and us having the worst catcher.
 

TomRicardo

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It may be hard to overstate how much Wong's defense has cost us. Umpire Scorecards has a 47 run gap in missed calls between us and the MFY, and most of that is down to them having two excellent defensive catchers and us having the worst catcher.
Wong is not a good catcher. He has a good arm and his decent at the plate but the rest of catching skills are very very poor. Teel is probably the most important of the top prospects in the system because Wong kills your pitching especially when your top pitchers are pitching.
 

lexrageorge

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It may be hard to overstate how much Wong's defense has cost us. Umpire Scorecards has a 47 run gap in missed calls between us and the MFY, and most of that is down to them having two excellent defensive catchers and us having the worst catcher.
I'm curious how that is determined. The Yankees have allowed 636 runs with a run differential of 147. The Red Sox have allowed 725 runs with an RD of 9. The 47 runs would be almost a 3rd of the run differential gap, and an unlikely 53% of the difference in runs allowed this season. Just curious what this gap means. If it was all due to the catcher, then Breslow is committing malpractice by having him on the roster. But historically there has been almost zero signal of catcher defense in the noise of pitcher performance variance.
 

simplicio

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I'm curious how that is determined. The Yankees have allowed 636 runs with a run differential of 147. The Red Sox have allowed 725 runs with an RD of 9. The 47 runs would be almost a 3rd of the run differential gap, and an unlikely 53% of the difference in runs allowed this season. Just curious what this gap means. If it was all due to the catcher, then Breslow is committing malpractice by having him on the roster. But historically there has been almost zero signal of catcher defense in the noise of pitcher performance variance.
There's a very strong correlation between Statcast catcher framing and the Umpire Scorecards metrics, as you'd expect.

I guess you could say they missed by not going after Victor Caratini last winter, but if there really was a hard budget cap it might have been hard to justify beating 2/12 for a backup C when we already had Wong and McGuire. Plus Wong also got a lot worse defensively this year, not sure if that was to be expected.

Looking at names, I'd like them to take a swing at Carson Kelly this offseason. His defense is consistently good and his offense is bad to adequate without being unplayable like a Hedges or Maldonado.
 

Fishy1

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I'm curious how that is determined. The Yankees have allowed 636 runs with a run differential of 147. The Red Sox have allowed 725 runs with an RD of 9. The 47 runs would be almost a 3rd of the run differential gap, and an unlikely 53% of the difference in runs allowed this season. Just curious what this gap means. If it was all due to the catcher, then Breslow is committing malpractice by having him on the roster. But historically there has been almost zero signal of catcher defense in the noise of pitcher performance variance.
I find it hard to believe, too, but then I see Wong frequently failing to frame pitches, catching a lot of them almost as if he were playing catch with the pitcher. He's in the 4th percentile there. And then there's the passed balls--he's in the 3rd percentile for passed balls. That's horrible. And he's average at catching basestealers. So while I don't know about the RD numbers, I do believe that he's cost them a lot of runs with his sloppiness.

He needs to go, IMO. He's 28, and had plenty of time to improve at the basics, and he's killing our pitchers, who already have to pitch in Fenway.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Season on the line… 2 outs, bases loaded and you can’t find a better hitter than Nick Sogard???
Grissom? Wong? Both available to PH.

nevermind…. I’m completely wrong.
 
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streeter88

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Ugh. I agree with @8slim that Cora escapes blame better than any Red Sox manager in my memory - which spans back to 1978.

Great last minute effort with the 4 game win streak - it was fun to watch their last ditch effort to get the final WC. In fact this team was fun for large parts of the season, though incredibly frustrating after reaching 61-52 on the 7th of August. Their record since then is 19-27 - including that 4 game win streak. Now they need 1 of the last 3 to finish with a 500 record.

I am sure that many - perhaps including me - could attack Cora's performance this offseason. Whatever, but I wish we didn't have to have the same damn conversation every winter.
 

Mike473

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Ugh. I agree with @8slim that Cora escapes blame better than any Red Sox manager in my memory - which spans back to 1978.

Great last minute effort with the 4 game win streak - it was fun to watch their last ditch effort to get the final WC. In fact this team was fun for large parts of the season, though incredibly frustrating after reaching 61-52 on the 7th of August. Their record since then is 19-27 - including that 4 game win streak. Now they need 1 of the last 3 to finish with a 500 record.

I am sure that many - perhaps including me - could attack Cora's performance this offseason. Whatever, but I wish we didn't have to have the same damn conversation every winter.
I agree, but I also feel a lot better about 2025 then I did about 2024 at the end of last season. Clearly, we need to improve in a lot of areas. But, with the kids knocking at the door, I do feel we are close to getting back on a good run over the next few years. This is a big off season to set the table going forward. This was a fun team to watch at times this year. But, there is no reason a franchise like the Red Sox should struggle just to stay in the race for last WC spot year after year and I expect that will change going forward. They are poorly constructed for a team playing at Fenway, and that is a good place to start.
 

Trapaholic

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Now that they are officially eliminated from the playoffs, I have been thinking big-picture.

The big questions I came up with as it pertains to Cora: What conversations about the future happened when he was negotiating his new deal? Was there a promise of a more aggressive spending approach to get better players?

AC seems like a super competitive guy who hates to lose. I understand that Boston is home for him now, but I have to imagine there was an ask to ensure that the team would be not just competitive, but in the mix for a pennant every year. Even with all the losing and frustration over the past couple of years, he has a chance to be one of the winningest managers in team history if things break right. I wish I had been a fly on the wall of those conversations with Breslow, et all.
 

Green Monster

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I find it hard to believe, too, but then I see Wong frequently failing to frame pitches, catching a lot of them almost as if he were playing catch with the pitcher. He's in the 4th percentile there. And then there's the passed balls--he's in the 3rd percentile for passed balls. That's horrible. And he's average at catching basestealers. So while I don't know about the RD numbers, I do believe that he's cost them a lot of runs with his sloppiness.

He needs to go, IMO. He's 28, and had plenty of time to improve at the basics, and he's killing our pitchers, who already have to pitch in Fenway.
Just to add to this ....what is Jason Varitek doing, does he not see what Wong is behind the plate? Is he encouraging the catcher to sit on his butt and eliminate any chance of blocking something in the dirt when runners are on third base??
 

RedOctober3829

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Now that they are officially eliminated from the playoffs, I have been thinking big-picture.

The big questions I came up with as it pertains to Cora: What conversations about the future happened when he was negotiating his new deal? Was there a promise of a more aggressive spending approach to get better players?

AC seems like a super competitive guy who hates to lose. I understand that Boston is home for him now, but I have to imagine there was an ask to ensure that the team would be not just competitive, but in the mix for a pennant every year. Even with all the losing and frustration over the past couple of years, he has a chance to be one of the winningest managers in team history if things break right. I wish I had been a fly on the wall of those conversations with Breslow, et all.
They can promise stuff until the cows come home but it comes down to actions. Their actions recently don’t support them throwing promises around to spend. Let’s hope the ownership group lives up to whatever they told Cora they’d do.
 

Mike473

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They can promise stuff until the cows come home but it comes down to actions. Their actions recently don’t support them throwing promises around to spend. Let’s hope the ownership group lives up to whatever they told Cora they’d do.
We have to believe they made Cora some promises. Otherwise, I am pretty sure he could have gotten a similar offer somewhere else and not have to deal with the drama in Boston. In addition, even though I am sure Henry didn't want to deal with the fall out of a bait and swich scenaro with Cora complaining and Henry on the hook to pay him. Finally, I am sure there are only so many 2nd half collapses that Cora is willing to take on his watch. And why should he? Like him or hate him, it would be better for him and the team to have him move on if the ownership isn't planning to step it up. I think they will.
 

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What an insane conversation. There's no way that Cora signs the extension if he isn't 100% on board with whatever the plan may be for this winter and beyond. And there's nothing for the front office or ownership to gain by trying to deceive him or double-crossing him immediately when the extension goes into effect.
 

joe dokes

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In the last 12 months, Casas and Duran have emerged as credible cornerstones at the MLB level, which was, at best, a hope at the end of last season. Similarly, Houck, Crawford and Bello are major league starters, something was also uncertain 12 months ago. And there are several minor leaguers who seem on the cusp of being solid major league contributors -- also an unknown 12 months ago. I think those changes in circumstances -- which are obvious to Cora and ownership -- will also change how the FO proceeds.
 

Cassvt2023

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All signs are pointing in the direction of the Red Sox being willing to spend money again. Coming out of the GM meetings, it is coming from every corner: Agents, reporters, Breslow himself. I'd like to believe that Cora was giving some solid reassurances that this would be the case starting this offseason or he would not have agreed to sign on for 3 more years.
 

JimD

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In retrospect, Cora was wise to take advantage of the opportunity to leverage a new contract with the Sox. What plum jobs are out there if he had been a free agent? I think the Yankees still would have stayed with Boone, and Dave Roberts has his job as long as he wants it now in LA (to use two teams that had been talked about having potential vacancies if they fell short).
 

Cassvt2023

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In retrospect, Cora was wise to take advantage of the opportunity to leverage a new contract with the Sox. What plum jobs are out there if he had been a free agent? I think the Yankees still would have stayed with Boone, and Dave Roberts has his job as long as he wants it now in LA (to use two teams that had been talked about having potential vacancies if they fell short).
True, but he also has young kids. He could've easily taken a year off, maybe done some TV work, etc.... my point is that i doubt he was going to continue managing in Boston if they were going to continue to operate as a mid-level team spending wise.