The Game Ball Thread: AFCCG at the Chiefs

heavyde050

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Yeah, that was terrible analysis by him. Seemed genuine too, instead of just trying to take the other side. The punt muff was pretty clearly overturned correctly. And by the way there was an INT right away, so it didn't matter. You can't acknowledge the roughing the passer and ignore the Chiefs calls (pick play). These people come off so dumb and salty.

It's fantastic.
I get the roughing call was bad, but the no call for DPI on that very play was just as bad.
I mean give me a break.
It should have been first and 10 with 5-10 yards (depending on holding vs DPI) or so instead of 15 from roughing.
 

Oppo

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Not sure if it came up in the game thread, but if you were KC would you have tried one pass to the end zone with 11 seconds left in the 4th from the 21 yard line? I was surprised Romo/Nance didn’t at least discuss the possibility. I’m sure the way KC was rolling on offense they figured they’d get it done in OT.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Not sure if it came up in the game thread, but if you were KC would you have tried one pass to the end zone with 11 seconds left in the 4th from the 21 yard line? I was surprised Romo/Nance didn’t at least discuss the possibility. I’m sure the way KC was rolling on offense they figured they’d get it done in OT.
They did try one pass, but the Pats had everyone protecting the end zone. If KC catches a ball in bounds in that situation they are toast, and another 10 or so yards doesn’t really make a FG any easier. It had to be a TD and the Pats had everyone dropped into the end zone. I thought it was a smart play to kick it in that situation.
 

Adrian's Dome

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They did try one pass, but the Pats had everyone protecting the end zone. If KC catches a ball in bounds in that situation they are toast, and another 10 or so yards doesn’t really make a FG any easier. It had to be a TD and the Pats had everyone dropped into the end zone. I thought it was a smart play to kick it in that situation.
Yup. Any catch in bounds or a sack and the game's over there. No reason to risk it.
 

cshea

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I’m not sure I would’ve tried it. A lot can go wrong. The Pats were going to sell out to defend the end zone, so Mahomes was either going to have to fit into a tight window (got picked in the end zone in the regular season matchup in a similar spot) or throw it out of the back of the end zone quickly. A lot of things could’ve gone wrong, and it was 21 yards not 5 or 10. Any hesitation by Mahomes brings a sack into play, or a bad decision to throw it short of the end zone in the middle of the field which obviously ends the game.
 

j44thor

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Also most offensive penalties at that point would come with a 10 second run off ending the game.
 

DJnVa

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I am a little surprised the Patriots appear to have had near a 50 percent WP when it was 3d and 9 on the second series in overtime. Converting a third and nine is not a great percentage and if they had to punt there I think it’s pretty close to game over.

I guess WP doesn’t really take into account the wind or the Chiefs’ ability to move the ball but that felt like the ballgame to me and I thought the Chiefs had a pretty big advantage just then.

Here's the calculator: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi

A team starting at their own 20, 1st down, needing about 50 yards for a FG has about a 48% shot of winning.

I get what you're saying about the Chiefs versus an average NFL team, but there's only so many ways to parse the data--otherwise the sample becomes too small to be meaningful.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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The pass to the endzone with 16 seconds left was a huge miss. Mahomes had Williams WIDE open in the flat at like the 14. He could have waltzed to the 8 and easily gotten out of bounds. The risk is that Williams fails to get OOB and tried to score himself.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Yeah, that was terrible analysis by him. Seemed genuine too, instead of just trying to take the other side. The punt muff was pretty clearly overturned correctly. And by the way there was an INT right away, so it didn't matter. You can't acknowledge the roughing the passer and ignore the Chiefs calls (pick play). These people come off so dumb and salty.

It's fantastic.
Yeah. I thought the breaks in this one broke pretty evenly. Both teams lost a likely game-clinching turnover due to a penalty. Bad calls (or missed calls) went each way. This game was what it was.
 

alydar

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And correct me if I’m wrong, but the only reason they had any time was because of a dumb offsides by us (Hightower maybe?) such that the clock stopped after they completed the pass down to the 20. Had it just been a completion and the clock kept running they would have only had time to spike it and kick.

The pass to the endzone with 16 seconds left was a huge miss. Mahomes had Williams WIDE open in the flat at like the 14. He could have waltzed to the 8 and easily gotten out of bounds. The risk is that Williams fails to get OOB and tried to score himself.
 

normstalls

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And correct me if I’m wrong, but the only reason they had any time was because of a dumb offsides by us (Hightower maybe?) such that the clock stopped after they completed the pass down to the 20. Had it just been a completion and the clock kept running they would have only had time to spike it and kick.
on that play I swear I see the Pats player lurch, but he’s still behind the blue line...ref just sees movement and throws the flag. Inconsequential I suppose... but I think it’s another example of less than stellar officiating
 

Cabin Mirror

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on that play I swear I see the Pats player lurch, but he’s still behind the blue line...ref just sees movement and throws the flag. Inconsequential I suppose... but I think it’s another example of less than stellar officiating
I saw it the same way.

Those early runs on 3 and 4 for first downs were insane. That had to be so disheartening for the Chiefs and their home crowd.
 

jablo1312

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All I heard all week was how good the Chiefs defense was at home this year (#2 DVOA at home, best pressure rate at home) and how bad the Pats were on the road. They gave up like 3 pressures and 1 hit in 46 dropbacks. Thats fucking insane. 1 more game like that from all 5 guys up front please.
 

BigSoxFan

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Still can’t get over the job Flores’ D did in Kelce/Hill. I mean, 4 catches for 65 yards is just flat out nuts. If I’m not mistaken, the second lowest total this year was 107 when they lost to the Chargers. Most other games were 150+.
 

ernieshore

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I was so stressed during that 4th quarter and OT. Right after the winning TD, I just put my head down and let out a sigh like Admiral Ackbar after the Death Star was blown up. (Then I celebrated).
 

Oppo

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I was so stressed during that 4th quarter and OT. Right after the winning TD, I just put my head down and let out a sigh like Admiral Ackbar after the Death Star was blown up. (Then I celebrated).
What a travesty the last Jedi made in handling Ackbar like a background character
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Here's the calculator: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi

A team starting at their own 20, 1st down, needing about 50 yards for a FG has about a 48% shot of winning.

I get what you're saying about the Chiefs versus an average NFL team, but there's only so many ways to parse the data--otherwise the sample becomes too small to be meaningful.
Seems low to me but I guess that’s the data. At that point the team with the ball is up one possession and so should be much better than a 50 percent chance to win. The other team does not get a chance to respond. So, they have whatever the chance is of getting a field goal plus even if they punt they still can win. Admittedly at that point the balance shifts to the other team but in a true next score wins scenario it is hard to believe the team with the ball is a 52/48 underdog. I could see if maybe they had only a 48 percent chance to score and win on that drive, but they still should have other scenarios to win.
 

DJnVa

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Well, I had a typo---team with ball in that situation is a 52-48 favorite. I reversed the teams.
 

Joe Sixpack

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That data is based on game logs from 1994-2016. The odds should be higher for the team with the ball based on improvements in FG kicking over that time period.

Edit: not to mention rules changes to increase offense made during that time also
 

lexrageorge

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The pass to the endzone with 16 seconds left was a huge miss. Mahomes had Williams WIDE open in the flat at like the 14. He could have waltzed to the 8 and easily gotten out of bounds. The risk is that Williams fails to get OOB and tried to score himself.
I’m certain it was an end zone or throw away play. The extra yards were not worth the risk of Williams failing to get out of bounds, or an offensive holding call ending the game.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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One thing that stood out to me from the game on Sunday was the number of times that Brady was calling audibles ahead of the snap. Brady is one of the best if not the best at reading defenses pre-snap in NFL history, but I think it's also massive the continuity with many of his receivers(using this term in reference to all his ball catchers) that allows this to occur. Edelman's been here for 10 seasons (played 9), Gronk for 9, Develin for 6, White for 5, Hogan 3, Burkett and Dorsett for 2. I don't even want to call it chemistry because it's a function of being able to make the reads, last minute play changes and confidence in exactly where his receivers would be.

One thing that was massively missing in this game for me was the Brady 1 yard sneak. Going back to the Bledsoe days, we've seen a 1 yard play as virtually guaranteed. There were three clear opportunities in the game and New England didn't attempt it once. Goal line play that resulted in the interception. First half switchout from offense to punt team that resulted in delay of game. Rex Burkhead failed conversion. Each time I was expecting Brady to jam it in between Andrews and either Mason or Thuney.
 

BlackJack

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One thing that was massively missing in this game for me was the Brady 1 yard sneak. Going back to the Bledsoe days, we've seen a 1 yard play as virtually guaranteed. There were three clear opportunities in the game and New England didn't attempt it once. Goal line play that resulted in the interception. First half switchout from offense to punt team that resulted in delay of game. Rex Burkhead failed conversion. Each time I was expecting Brady to jam it in between Andrews and either Mason or Thuney.
If Brady's knee is iffy, I could see not wanting to risk re-injuring it with a sneak. Or it could be that it just wasn't there. A big part of the success rate for Brady's sneaks is that he only goes for it if he's got an opening.
 

Saints Rest

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If Brady's knee is iffy, I could see not wanting to risk re-injuring it with a sneak. Or it could be that it just wasn't there. A big part of the success rate for Brady's sneaks is that he only goes for it if he's got an opening.
And the flip side is that well-coached teams know that that is Brady’s MO so they fill the interior with beef. It’s why they try to run OT as all the beef is inside. One of the early TD’s showed this especially with Michel having a huge hole to Cannon’s right.
 

DJnVa

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That data is based on game logs from 1994-2016. The odds should be higher for the team with the ball based on improvements in FG kicking over that time period.

Edit: not to mention rules changes to increase offense made during that time also
Sure---but that becomes a small sample size. No one is really disagreeing, I was just pointing out where they get the numbers from.
 

Super Nomario

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It's kind of crazy after a 37-point outburst, but the Pats really came close to scoring more points. By drive:
1) TD
2) INT at the goal line
3) stuffed on 3rd-and-1 on KC's side of the field, punted (ugh)
4) TD
5) stopped on 3rd-and-6, punt
6) FG (set back by OPI call)
7) stuffed on 3rd-and-2 and 4th-and-1 at KC's 25
8) INT off Edelman's hands
9) TD
10) TD
11) Kneeldown
12) TD

So of their non-TD drives, one was a kneeldown, three times they came within a yard of converting (once for a TD), one was a deflected INT, and one was stymied by an OPI call. Only once were they stopped without really getting close.
 

Marbleheader

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Fan reaction videos are kind of lame, with the exception of Super Bowl XLIX where a completely unexpected event changes almost certain defeat into victory.
 

CFB_Rules

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that Edelman headshot, the refs probably did not see it at all focusing on the INT return. would have been 15 yards back after the INT, I doubt we stop them anyways.

I understand NFL reffing is very hard, but we should expect more.
I wouldn’t have called a foul on the Edelman hit even with the benefit of replay. What exactly is the foul? Edelman isn’t defenseless. He sees the block coming and gets steamrolled.
 

CFB_Rules

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Also most offensive penalties at that point would come with a 10 second run off ending the game.
Eh, a runoff isn't really a concern. The only live-ball foul that can create a runoff is ING / illegal forward pass. Dead ball fouls can create runoffs, but only if the clock is running, and it wasn't because the previous play was an incomplete pass.
 

bakahump

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Man Gronk gets mugged.
I will have to rewatch (if you have already please confirm or deny) but (i think) there was 2 series back to back. Gronk got mauled on 2 consecutive routes. Then KC gets the ball, JCJ plays similarly aggressive D (I wont say it wasnt pass interference....) and gets flagged (...I am just saying if it was PI on the Pats, it should have be PI on KC.)

And I know its been beaten to death but there is total BS that "Calls need to go both ways on Replay." The perception seems to be that the Pats get way more Replay calls then other teams (like Edelmans non touch as an example). Romo even said something insane like "the ball knows" after the almost pick.
Each play is in a vacuum. It doesnt and shouldnt matter if the pats have won every replay/close play previous. Its only that play that matters. For Medidiots and Haters (gonna hate) to say or suggest other wise is a new level of stupid.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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I wouldn’t have called a foul on the Edelman hit even with the benefit of replay. What exactly is the foul? Edelman isn’t defenseless. He sees the block coming and gets steamrolled.
I believe that type of hit was subject to a rule change a few years back.
 

CFB_Rules

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I believe that type of hit was subject to a rule change a few years back.
There are two potential fouls, both added in the last few years:

12-2-7-b-1:

forcibly hitting the defenseless player’s head or neck area with the helmet, facemask, forearm, or shoulder, even if the initial contact is lower than the player’s neck, and regardless of whether the defensive player also uses his arms to tackle the defenseless player by encircling or grasping him.

This does not apply because Edelman is not defenseless. He recovers from attempting to catch the ball and turns to look for contact. The hit is not from the blindside.

12-2-8:

It is a foul if a player lowers his head to initiate and make contact with his helmet against an opponent.

The contact is not with the KC player's helmet, it's primarily with the arms and shoulder. This hit is a "BUN", Big Ugly Nothing.
 

DJnVa

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There are two potential fouls, both added in the last few years:

12-2-7-b-1:

forcibly hitting the defenseless player’s head or neck area with the helmet, facemask, forearm, or shoulder, even if the initial contact is lower than the player’s neck, and regardless of whether the defensive player also uses his arms to tackle the defenseless player by encircling or grasping him.

This does not apply because Edelman is not defenseless. He recovers from attempting to catch the ball and turns to look for contact. The hit is not from the blindside..
I'm not taking a stand on whether this was or was not a penalty, but the rule doesn't say that the hit has to come from the blindside. It says the intended receiver on an interception is considered defenseless if he cannot avoid or ward off the hit.

The intended receiver of a pass in the action during and immediately following an interception or potential interception. If the player is capable of avoiding or warding off the impending contact of an opponent, he is no longer a defenseless player.
and then the part you quoted: "forcibly hitting the defenseless player’s head or neck area with the helmet, facemask, forearm, or shoulder".

That said, I don't know what the standard is for how long after the interception that call is made and I can't tell from the clip posted here, so it may not apply to Edelman either way.
 

BaseballJones

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I wouldn’t have called a foul on the Edelman hit even with the benefit of replay. What exactly is the foul? Edelman isn’t defenseless. He sees the block coming and gets steamrolled.
He doesn't just get steamrolled. The guy blasts Edelman with two forearms to what sure appears to be the head.
 

CFB_Rules

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I'm not taking a stand on whether this was or was not a penalty, but the rule doesn't say that the hit has to come from the blindside. It says the intended receiver on an interception is considered defenseless if he cannot avoid or ward off the hit.
I was just using blindside as an example. There are a lot of categories that could make a player defenseless. Edelman is defenseless on this play while the pass is in the air and even after the interception I'd argue until he regathers his feet. But then his protection ends, after which he gets hit.
 

Deathofthebambino

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They did try one pass, but the Pats had everyone protecting the end zone. If KC catches a ball in bounds in that situation they are toast, and another 10 or so yards doesn’t really make a FG any easier. It had to be a TD and the Pats had everyone dropped into the end zone. I thought it was a smart play to kick it in that situation.
I’m not sure I would’ve tried it. A lot can go wrong. The Pats were going to sell out to defend the end zone, so Mahomes was either going to have to fit into a tight window (got picked in the end zone in the regular season matchup in a similar spot) or throw it out of the back of the end zone quickly. A lot of things could’ve gone wrong, and it was 21 yards not 5 or 10. Any hesitation by Mahomes brings a sack into play, or a bad decision to throw it short of the end zone in the middle of the field which obviously ends the game.
It's basically the exact same situation that Tom Brady faced at the end of the Steelers game. The Pats had what was essentially a 2nd and goal from the exact same 21 yard line, the Steelers were dropping everyone into the end zone, and folks around here, and around the nation said that because Brady didn't come through in that situation and throw a touchdown pass, it was more evidence that he was falling off the cliff. I said it over and over again at the time, but those 3 passes that Brady threw in that situation, and the one Mahomes threw Sunday, are basically Hail Mary's. The entire defense knows where you're going, they have your receivers outnumbered 2 to 1, you can't throw it short and run the risk of having someone tackled, you can't throw it to someone where it might get tipped and picked off, etc. The only difference was Tom had 3 shots because the Pats were losing so they had to keep trying, and Mahomes only got one, but the fact that Reid didn't even try a second time with 11 seconds left is all the evidence folks should need that it's really fucking hard to score in that situation.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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After change of possession why can't it be illegal use of hands by an offensive player in a block? Blockers downfield can be called for illegal use of hands, even if it is most commonly called at the line, so long as it's a forceable use of the hands or forearm and contact is made above the shoulder pads in the act of the block by an offensive team.