The Game Goat Thread: WCG @ Buffalo

Cotillion

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The number of times the D had someone lined up for a tackle for a loss or short gain, and the Bills player just bounced off it or the D just whiffed on the tackle was atrocious. The tackling in this game was atrocious for the few times they got close enough to tackle someone.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Agree with the whole second paragraph, but let's not pretend the Pats just lost to the '85 Bears or some historic juggernaut. They got absolutely embarrassed by a pretty good, 6-loss, playoff team. It is certainly fair cause for fan angs
The Bills are a better football team than the Patriots. Its pretty indisputable at this point. If someone referred to them as historically great or used some other macro context to discuss them, I may have missed it. But my post did not so its not clear why you took issue with it.
 
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SMU_Sox

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Again, the Bills are not juggernauts but they had they played all year at the level they did in 6-8 games they would have been a historically great team. I know that is a super flawed argument. I know. But when you are capable of being that good in 1/3 to almost half your games you aren’t just some 6 loss team. Their issue all year has been consistency on offense. When they play well it’s not just good it’s borderline unbeatable. Unfortunately they had 2 of their best games all year vs the Pats. At least last game the Pats were getting some pressure and the coverage was a lot better minus McKenzie. This game I don’t think there was a single defensive player without a major mistake. Allen had 9.64 seconds to throw that “throwaway” to Knox. That’s just how the night went. I read somewhere today (maybe Super Nomario?) that the Pats were -40 EPA on defense. Holy shit that’s close to an entire season of EPA in one game for a middle of the pack defense in one freaking game. That’s how bad they were.
 

SMU_Sox

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It also really bugged me that they never went hurry up. Down 21-0, you need points quickly.
I think the answer to this is that the defense needed a breather so they wanted to try and have a longer drive. If they had caught the Bills in some bad mismatched personnel then maybe they would have gone with it but they did not indeed catch the Bills in a mismatch... like all night.

You don't always use tempo and hurry-up for mismatch situations but most? much? of the time you do. Tempo as a tactic in and of itself has really not been a thing in the NFL for 5-6 years now. It's just not that useful especially if you don't have a reason for it like a mismatch.

Quick edit: obviously 2 minute drill is a different situation - of course you use a quicker offense then. But that's a situation that requires it.
 

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They threw a TD to a fat guy. The Pats have done the same thing in the past—both out of deception (Vrabel) and domination (Solder). You kind of have to respect it.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Feels silly to point out since it is inconsequential in the over all game, but this play on the 2nd Bills drive pissed me off. This looks like a blatant hold to me, and would have actually put them in 3rd and long (only opportunity all game it turns out), possibly out of FG range.

In a game where nothing was going right, a stop here may have made some kind of difference. Probably not, but at the time I still had some glimmer of hope.

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Definitely wasn’t the deciding factor but in the last two full games the Bills were called for offensive holding once… The Bills had only one offensive penalty the entire game Saturday night (OPI against Knox) Maybe they actually played a close to perfect game but I have a hard time believing that. Again, that probably didn’t factor in too much as far as the outcome goes but it’s still something I found noticeable.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jonnu tipping a pass not intended for him is pretty much Jonny’s season in a nutshell. He’s unfortunately a guy who can’t take on edges as an in-line guy and he’s more a schemed touches guy vs an actual route runner. Jonnu didn’t get enough reps to qualify as a goat but he’s been a season long goat and seems like a colossal waste of cap space when they need it.

Some of McDaniel’s comments about him seemed to indicate he was mentally struggling to adjust to life in their system. Phil Perry thinks he might have been nursing an injury all year. Either way or both he fucking sucks.
 

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They threw a TD to a fat guy. The Pats have done the same thing in the past—both out of deception (Vrabel) and domination (Solder). You kind of have to respect it.
The Solder TD was in the first half, wasn’t it? The game wasn’t a blowout yet.

The Bills threw a fat guy TD to make it a 37 point game. Which is fine, these are pros, but these situations are hardly analogous.
 

jezza1918

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Jonnu tipping a pass not intended for him is pretty much Jonny’s season in a nutshell. He’s unfortunately a guy who can’t take on edges as an in-line guy and he’s more a schemed touches guy vs an actual route runner. Jonnu didn’t get enough reps to qualify as a goat but he’s been a season long goat and seems like a colossal waste of cap space when they need it.

Some of McDaniel’s comments about him seemed to indicate he was mentally struggling to adjust to life in their system. Phil Perry thinks he might have been nursing an injury all year. Either way or both he fucking sucks.
Regarding that tipped pass - wasn't that more of an indictment on the play design itself and/or the throw by Mac? Obviously not trying to use that as a defense for how disappointing Jonnu was this season, but I got in an argument during the game about that specific play not being on him at all?
 

BaseballJones

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Jonnu's YAC/reception stats compared to some others...

Jonnu: 8.3
Henry: 2.9
Kelce: 6.1
Waller: 4.4
Knox: 5.7
Andrews: 4.3
Schultz: 4.5
Gesicki: 3.0
Pitts: 4.6

So he blows all the top TEs away in average YAC per reception. So he's very dangerous *when he gets the ball*. The problem is that he didn't get the ball very much.

Catch % of these TEs...

Jonnu: 62.2%
Henry: 66.7%
Kelce: 68.7%
Waller: 59.1%
Knox: 69.0%
Andrews: 69.9%
Schultz: 75.0%
Gesicki: 62.6%
Pitts: 61.8%

So he was a little better than Pitts and Waller in terms of catch percentage, two guys who I think most agree are, or who will soon be, among the best TEs in the game. But much worse than the other guys on the list.

But it's not like he doesn't present problems for the defense. Teams do NOT want Jonnu to catch the ball in space against them, because he'll kill them with YAC. None of the others is as good as him in that regard. He's barely targeted compared to these other guys, and I don't know if that's because he didn't play as much, or didn't run great routes (like it seemed to be his fault that he was in the same area as Meyers and tipped the pass), or was kept in to block more, or what. But while he certainly seemed to have his problems, one thing he excelled at was getting yards after the catch. So it seems like they could work to find more ways to get the ball to him.
 

Mystic Merlin

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The Solder TD was in the first half, wasn’t it? The game wasn’t a blowout yet.

The Bills threw a fat guy TD to make it a 37 point game. Which is fine, these are pros, but these situations are hardly analogous.
Yes, Solder’s TD came with the score 17-7 Pats on the opening drive of the third quarter.

The Bills tackle eligible TD was the equivalent of the Fridge getting a handoff in the SB.
 

Harry Hooper

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They threw a TD to a fat guy. The Pats have done the same thing in the past—both out of deception (Vrabel) and domination (Solder). You kind of have to respect it.
IIRC, there was also a fake punt TD pass to Troy Brown in a game that was not in doubt for the Pats.
 

Mystic Merlin

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IIRC, there was also a fake punt TD pass to Troy Brown in a game that was not in doubt for the Pats.
I recall in ‘04 v the Rams a fake FG TD on a pass from Vinatieri to Troy on a ‘sleeper’ concept where he declared to the refs after sneaking onto the field but the Rams never saw him. Going back (I couldn’t recall when in the game it occurred or what the score was), it happened in the mid third quarter with the score at 19-14 Pats.

I don’t remember a fake punt TD to Troy.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Those Jonnu stats are interesting, I guess, but as you said- he only had 28 receptions all yearz He had less than 300 yards, ranking outside the top 30 among TE’s. We’d be better off comparing his stats to Jack Doyle and Anthony Firkser than Kelce and Waller.
 

Harry Hooper

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I recall in ‘04 v the Rams a fake FG TD on a pass from Vinatieri to Troy on a ‘sleeper’ concept where he declared to the refs after sneaking onto the field but the Rams never saw him. Going back (I couldn’t recall when in the game it occurred or what the score was), it happened in the mid third quarter with the score at 19-14 Pats.

I don’t remember a fake punt TD to Troy.
That could be it, though lined up as a flanker he wouldn't have to declare to the refs, right? Was it a case of him coming on the field and never joining the huddle, so the opponent did not notice him lined up out wide?


I have no issue with the play, but certain media members at the time thought it was humiliating an opponent.
 
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Mystic Merlin

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That could be it, though lined up as a flanker he wouldn't have to declare to the refs, right? I have no issue with the play, but certain media members at the time thought it was humiliating an opponent.
He had to come inside the numbers and declare, he walked off the sideline.

I don’t recall the fallout from that play at all, but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that people blew a gasket. That was right in the middle of the Pats 03-04 run of methodical, ruthless efficiency, where they really were separated from the pack in terms of strategy/game mgmt, and the backlash was starting. It arguably culminated in the RUNNING UP THE SCOAR craze of ‘06.
 

Jimbodandy

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Regarding that tipped pass - wasn't that more of an indictment on the play design itself and/or the throw by Mac? Obviously not trying to use that as a defense for how disappointing Jonnu was this season, but I got in an argument during the game about that specific play not being on him at all?
Not likely. Chances are very high that either Jonnu or Myers read the play incorrectly and ran the wrong route. And given their target rates and production this year, my money is on Jonnu being in the wrong place.

I hope that they figure out how to use him next year. He's a playmaker, and we need more playmakers. He just hasn't done it here yet.
 

tims4wins

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No one flipped out over that Troy Brown play. That was a competitive game against a pretty good team, and the Pats were down multiple corner backs early in that game. It was the game immediately after the Pittsburgh loss and the Pats were vulnerable. There was zero humiliation or running up the score discussion until 2007. Let's keep our history correct.
 

jezza1918

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Not likely. Chances are very high that either Jonnu or Myers read the play incorrectly and ran the wrong route. And given their target rates and production this year, my money is on Jonnu being in the wrong place.

I hope that they figure out how to use him next year. He's a playmaker, and we need more playmakers. He just hasn't done it here yet.
Ok that explanation makes complete sense. And in retrospect one I completely agree with. Though if I'm being honest I will not admit defeat WRT to the in game argument!
 

Jimbodandy

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Ok that explanation makes complete sense. And in retrospect one I completely agree with. Though if I'm being honest I will not admit defeat WRT to the in game argument!
Someone else here might know that play better than I do. Much of this offense is about reading leverage and seams and optionality on the routes. If one guy just can't read the defense the same as the QB, he just won't be where the QB expects him to be. And we've had plenty of talented guys over the years who don't get it.

It could be that Myers read it wrong or Mac. But it almost certainly was not drawn up that way.
 

slamminsammya

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Jonnu's YAC/reception stats compared to some others...

Jonnu: 8.3
Henry: 2.9
Kelce: 6.1
Waller: 4.4
Knox: 5.7
Andrews: 4.3
Schultz: 4.5
Gesicki: 3.0
Pitts: 4.6

So he blows all the top TEs away in average YAC per reception. So he's very dangerous *when he gets the ball*. The problem is that he didn't get the ball very much.

Catch % of these TEs...

Jonnu: 62.2%
Henry: 66.7%
Kelce: 68.7%
Waller: 59.1%
Knox: 69.0%
Andrews: 69.9%
Schultz: 75.0%
Gesicki: 62.6%
Pitts: 61.8%

So he was a little better than Pitts and Waller in terms of catch percentage, two guys who I think most agree are, or who will soon be, among the best TEs in the game. But much worse than the other guys on the list.

But it's not like he doesn't present problems for the defense. Teams do NOT want Jonnu to catch the ball in space against them, because he'll kill them with YAC. None of the others is as good as him in that regard. He's barely targeted compared to these other guys, and I don't know if that's because he didn't play as much, or didn't run great routes (like it seemed to be his fault that he was in the same area as Meyers and tipped the pass), or was kept in to block more, or what. But while he certainly seemed to have his problems, one thing he excelled at was getting yards after the catch. So it seems like they could work to find more ways to get the ball to him.
YAC per catch is not telling you much about a player's skill since the most dominant factor in YAC is how open someone is when they catch the ball. Being open is partly skill itself, but a lot of that is contextual depending on a lot of factors not related to someone's ability to rip big runs after the catch. See for example https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-expected-yards-after-catch-0ap3000000983644
 

Harry Hooper

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No one flipped out over that Troy Brown play. That was a competitive game against a pretty good team, and the Pats were down multiple corner backs early in that game. It was the game immediately after the Pittsburgh loss and the Pats were vulnerable. There was zero humiliation or running up the score discussion until 2007. Let's keep our history correct.


No one alive at least. It was Clark Booth. You are right that it wasn't a running-up-the-score complaint. Courtesy of BostonSportsMedia:

If you want to know why a lot of NFL insiders will be happy when Bill Belichick gets his comeuppance some day, ponder that cheesy stunt he pulled in St. Louis that resulted in a ‘touchdown pass’ from Adam Vinatieri to Troy Brown on a fake field goal. The play was technically legal but laden with a deceit bordering on un-sportsmanlike conduct. That’s sandlot stuff hardly worthy of this league, in the minds of true-blue football sorts who would also argue that humiliating a foe is to be avoided at all costs.
 

rodderick

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YAC per catch is not telling you much about a player's skill since the most dominant factor in YAC is how open someone is when they catch the ball. Being open is partly skill itself, but a lot of that is contextual depending on a lot of factors not related to someone's ability to rip big runs after the catch. See for example https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-expected-yards-after-catch-0ap3000000983644
Seemed to me like most of Jonnu's targets were on plays designed to go his way and get him in space, instead of traditional passing plays in which he ends up getting the ball based on matchup and progression. That would explain the high YAC numbers.
 

Bowhemian

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Someone else here might know that play better than I do. Much of this offense is about reading leverage and seams and optionality on the routes. If one guy just can't read the defense the same as the QB, he just won't be where the QB expects him to be. And we've had plenty of talented guys over the years who don't get it.

It could be that Myers read it wrong or Mac. But it almost certainly was not drawn up that way.
No passing routes are designed for the receivers to be that close together. One of them ran the wrong route. I take that back-they both could have ran the right route, by it is possible that the one was too shallow and/or the bottom route was too deep, putting them within a few yards of each other.
 

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No passing routes are designed for the receivers to be that close together. One of them ran the wrong route. I take that back-they both could have ran the right route, by it is possible that the one was too shallow and/or the bottom route was too deep, putting them within a few yards of each other.
Agreed completely. I just don't know what the reads were and, therefore, who fucked up. Someone did.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Is anyone else having a bit of a delayed reaction?

After the game I wasn't even really bummed. I just sort of shook my head and went to sleep wondering what the team will be like next year. Yesterday, I watched some football and didn't even think about it.

But today I'm in total WTF mode. I'm not bummed. It's closer to bemused really. But seriously. Hey guys. We gave up a touchdown on every single possession. In the playoffs. Every single possession.

What is that? Is that even a thing?
 

ShaneTrot

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Great job Harry Hooper. Clark was never fun who cares what he thought about sports.
As a Pats fan, I cannot get angry at the Bills pouring it on. It's pro football, stop the other team. It is amazing that we had 3 blowouts this weekend, some teams ride the wave of good play after play and some teams come apart under the pressure sometimes or their lack of playmakers shows through.
 

ShaneTrot

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Is anyone else having a bit of a delayed reaction?

After the game I wasn't even really bummed. I just sort of shook my head and went to sleep wondering what the team will be like next year. Yesterday, I watched some football and didn't even think about it.

But today I'm in total WTF mode. I'm not bummed. It's closer to bemused really. But seriously. Hey guys. We gave up a touchdown on every single possession. In the playoffs. Every single possession.

What is that? Is that even a thing?
I am just puzzled that Allen looked like a god against NE and was very mortal against Atlanta and the Jets. Why did this solid defense disintegrate down the stretch? Injuries, poor preparation? Or do they really suck?
 

BaseballJones

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I am just puzzled that Allen looked like a god against NE and was very mortal against Atlanta and the Jets. Why did this solid defense disintegrate down the stretch? Injuries, poor preparation? Or do they really suck?
They might suck. None of the metrics from a 17 game sample size support the idea that they suck, but it’s still possible they do.

But they don’t suck THAT bad. No defense ever sucks THAT bad. So it was a confluence of things coming together - guys missing, bad plays, a quality opponent doing everything right, all a perfect storm that is unlikely to be repeated....ever.
 

Justthetippett

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Is anyone else having a bit of a delayed reaction?

After the game I wasn't even really bummed. I just sort of shook my head and went to sleep wondering what the team will be like next year. Yesterday, I watched some football and didn't even think about it.

But today I'm in total WTF mode. I'm not bummed. It's closer to bemused really. But seriously. Hey guys. We gave up a touchdown on every single possession. In the playoffs. Every single possession.

What is that? Is that even a thing?
As a fan, I just want to erase the memory, or tell myself that’s the worst it can get against Buff and it only gets better in future years (as Allen adjusts to not having Daboll or whatever, Mac improves, etc.). Has to be the worst playoff game we’ve ever had or will ever have. Belichick has seemed pretty sanguine in his interviews over the past few days, which also gives me hope that it wasn’t as awful or irreperibile as it seemed in real time.
 

tims4wins

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They might suck. None of the metrics from a 17 game sample size support the idea that they suck, but it’s still possible they do.

But they don’t suck THAT bad. No defense ever sucks THAT bad. So it was a confluence of things coming together - guys missing, bad plays, a quality opponent doing everything right, all a perfect storm that is unlikely to be repeated....ever.
But they sucked that bad twice vs Buffalo. Maybe it’s just the worst possible matchup for them.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Regarding that tipped pass - wasn't that more of an indictment on the play design itself and/or the throw by Mac? Obviously not trying to use that as a defense for how disappointing Jonnu was this season, but I got in an argument during the game about that specific play not being on him at all?
My interpertation of that play, just based on how the season went, is that Jonnu ran a poor route or the wrong route, which left him in a place where he could reach for and tip the pass away from intended receiver Meyers. But that's just a guess. Could be Meyers was in the wrong place and Mac's pass intended for Jonnu sailed high.
 

Euclis20

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They might suck. None of the metrics from a 17 game sample size support the idea that they suck, but it’s still possible they do.

But they don’t suck THAT bad. No defense ever sucks THAT bad. So it was a confluence of things coming together - guys missing, bad plays, a quality opponent doing everything right, all a perfect storm that is unlikely to be repeated....ever.
It's funny because it seemed they really couldn't have done any worse than the last game against Buffalo. That was their worst defensive game of the year. Then they went and did far worse this weekend. Someone on this board wrote that it was like playing Madden on easy mode, and that's what it looked like. Obviously there will be some changes next year but we're 1-4 against the Bills since the start of last year, with the D getting destroyed in 3/4 losses. Really not looking forward to trying to stop Allen for the rest of the decade (and then some).
 

Silverdude2167

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It's funny because it seemed they really couldn't have done any worse than the last game against Buffalo. That was their worst defensive game of the year. Then they went and did far worse this weekend. Someone on this board wrote that it was like playing Madden on easy mode, and that's what it looked like. Obviously there will be some changes next year but we're 1-4 against the Bills since the start of last year, with the D getting destroyed in 3/4 losses. Really not looking forward to trying to stop Allen for the rest of the decade (and then some).
The only silver lining is that the Bills are coming to the end of cheap Josh Allen. His hit this year is 10, next year 16 and then like 39. Now they will just push things out at that point but him taking up 5% of the cap ends soon and then we see how he does as the team around him thins.
 

Harry Hooper

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I can't believe you remembered this. I also can't believe Booth actually typed it.

There's a trenchant comment in that BSMW link:

people were wishing ill will and comeuppance on Bill Belichick 3 years prior to the contrived hysteria of Spygate?!? Before he had even won his 3rd Super Bowl in 4 years? Goodness gracious. That speaks volumes.
 

CaptainBergy

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Josh Allen wore metal cleats as well as Singletary. No wonder why every pats defender looked like a high schooler tackling Derrick Henry.
 

CapeCodYaz

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After the Miami game, Bedard said they looked like a team that can’t wait for the season to end. Last night’s performance proved Bedard correct. Hopefully, someone in the media will get the full story about what happened to this team during the bye week.
something is up I think. yes we have some older players on D and Buffalo is really good and fast but under Belicheck Pats players (esp. D) show up and try hard. Unless he pissed them off somehow
 

BigJimEd

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something is up I think. yes we have some older players on D and Buffalo is really good and fast but under Belicheck Pats players (esp. D) show up and try hard. Unless he pissed them off somehow
Is there any evidence of this or is just more silly speculation?
 

BaseballJones

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They obviously played poorly but to say they weren't trying their best because their coach pissed them off seems like a huge stretch.
Yeah let’s lose a playoff game because we aren’t happy with BB. Not a chance.

(I mean not a chance this scenario happened; they easily could have been pissed off at BB for some reason.)
 

CapeCodYaz

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Yeah let’s lose a playoff game because we aren’t happy with BB. Not a chance.

(I mean not a chance this scenario happened; they easily could have been pissed off at BB for some reason.)
it's just fun speculation but I know we all watched the game and did it look like our D was trying? Not to my eyes