The Game Goat Thread: Wk 12 @ Broncos

Stitch01

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Agreed we need clearer data---reviewing the plays and the all-22.

That said, I do not think the flow was that they had success in the middle and then switched to the outside. I think their primary 'read' all game was outside (Gronk's initial TD was that way, for example), and my comment is that they perhaps should have looked to more inside routes (and/or had those higher in the route tree) a little more than they did. So I don't think occam's razor applies here, the point was a lot more subtle than switching out of something that worked to something which didn't---I agree that is un-Pats like and unlikely to be the case.

On the running game, I don't think they showed a lot of success there and the question was more whether they should have accepted a couple more low expected value runs to manage the clock in the 4th quarter. Pats are obviously very sophisticated in making these decisions---as noted initially, it's as much that I didn't really fully understand the flow they selected and I often can.
Not sure there were great places to do so in the 4th quarter, they ended up never having the ball up two possessions. Maybe a 2nd down run the play after the Gronk injury or a high completion percentage screen call, but I think the Pats felt better about trying to pick up a 1st down on an early down there where the Broncos couldn't just sell out and play pass and picking up a 1st down was going to be more valuable than clock there since they could only really run it down to about 1:50. Goes without saying, but the Harper muff really fucked them on that front. They were set up where they could run clock and play field position (punting again from their own 40 on the Harper muff drive with 12 minutes left wouldn't have been the end of the world, I think youd have seen runs on that possession) and were on the wrong side of field position the rest of the way
 

twothousandone

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more credit than to think they went away from what worked on the first drive and just started bombing up the sideline to Chandler because they just felt like it.
Did they connect on any of those sideline passes to Chandler? I can't remember one. Something just seemed off on those -- Chandler running slower than Brady thought? Due to the snow? Brady having trouble with the weather? Chandler simply not cut out to play that wide? I liked the explanation, but it seemed to be poor execution.
 

Super Nomario

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So if the refs made some BS penalty call that wiped out Butler's INT in the Super Bowl, would you have made this same argument? I realize that change of possession is different from 3rd and goal at the 20, but the logical conclusion one can draw from the bolded part of your quote is that if the defense lets the offense get to the 10 yard line, then all bets are off.
Sure. I mean, the defense didn't play great in the Super Bowl. Some bad luck with the Kearse catch, but they also gave up 24 points and a bunch of big plays. They made the one big pick at the end to save the game, but when you let it come down to one play you're kind of at the mercy of randomness (including ticky-tack reffing).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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And I'm not quite sure what you mean by the bolded. That's just not true.
I was going to say the same. We've known about points of emphasis for many many years. The league makes them public, don't they?
Apologies, I used the term too loosely. Yes, points of emphasis have been around for a while. I was responding to the crews getting specific instructions to look out for certain things on a game by game basis. I certainly was not aware of that until we heard about the Colts citing ball inflation prior to the AFCCG, when it was made known that eery team does it every week.
 

Stitch01

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I thought the defense, overall, played very well. The tackling fell off notably in the 2nd half and getting beat on the two deep balls was bad (Brock should have tried some of them earlier IMO, I think its the best way to attack the Pats defense.), but Im willing to cut the defense a lot of slack in this one given the spot they were in and given they lost Hightower mid game. I come out of that game thinking the Pats defense can make up for a down game from the offense in the playoffs, which has been a rarity in recent years
 

SumnerH

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I don't think they "let" them get to 10-0. I think they let it play out for awhile, and made adjustments. Just my personal opinion. We can agree to disagree
We could, but that would be stupid because your opinion doesn't appear to be valid, and should be argued against to encourage you to provide some evidence or consider reevaluating. You are entitled to your opinion, but if it's dumb others are entitled to mock you for it.

And if you're making an unusual claim, the burden of proof falls on you--otherwise all you have is insinuation and a clever violation of Occam's Razor (which is what all good conspiracy theories are at their heart).
 

McDrew

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Down:
Blount: 9 rushes that were straight into the offensive line, save one 9 yard dash that accounted for a third of his yards. Brought nothing to the table and forced Brady to throw in awful.

Anyone else running the ball: Seriously, 39 yards of rushing?

LaFell: 3rd or 4th HUGE drop since coming back from injury.

Harper: Special teams turnovers are the easiest way to give your opponent 40 yards in one play. Bad Harper.

Up:
Gostkowski: 47 yarder with 0 time left in Regulation. Solid again.

Ryan Allen: 10 punts, 5 inside the 20, 40.6 yard average. On a day when the offense was not clicking, the fact that he outplayed Colquitt (8 punts, 0 starts inside the 20).

Everyone involved in the coverage of Demaryius Thomas. 11 targets, leading to 1 (admittedly clutch) catch for 36 yards. He could have been a much bigger weapon.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Not sure there were great places to do so in the 4th quarter, they ended up never having the ball up two possessions. Maybe a 2nd down run the play after the Gronk injury or a high completion percentage screen call, but I think the Pats felt better about trying to pick up a 1st down on an early down there where the Broncos couldn't just sell out and play pass and picking up a 1st down was going to be more valuable than clock there since they could only really run it down to about 1:50. Goes without saying, but the Harper muff really fucked them on that front. They were set up where they could run clock and play field position (punting again from their own 40 on the Harper muff drive with 12 minutes left wouldn't have been the end of the world, I think youd have seen runs on that possession) and were on the wrong side of field position the rest of the way
As everything stood, I think they made the right, aggressive call trying to pick up the first down.

The annoying thing on that series was that, right before the Gronk injury play, they were about 5-10 seconds of game clock away from being able to get to the 2:00 warning on second down. Brady snapped the ball at 2:53 (on the first down Gronk injury play) so if they run there, the Broncos can probably call their last timeout and then second down starts at 2:48 or something and if you run again, you still need to take the 3rd down snap before the 2:00 warning and you give Osweiler about 1:50 or so to come down the field after a punt. If Brady was snapping first down at 2:45, you can basically guarantee getting to snap 3rd down after the 2:00 warning and punt from the 40 at around the 1:15 mark, making an inexperienced QB go about 80-90 yards in 65-70 seconds or so for a TD with no timeouts in the snow. Pats win probability in that situation is super fucking high. Its a game of inches but also a game of seconds.
 
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dynomite

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Its a game of inches but also a game of seconds.
Good way to put it.

The call was a little ticky-tack, but the refs didn't give up 75 yards in the first three plays of that drive to set up the first-and-goal. The one thing they couldn't do there was get beaten deep and they got burned immediately twice. It was unfortunate timing that the flag wiped out what was just about the defensive line's only good play in the last 20 minutes of game action, but it was also a problem that they made so few plays late in the game.
That's a fair point of view. I might be too easy on the defense, but it just felt like the perfect storm of bad circumstances, bad calls, bad luck, and bad execution (edit: and to be fair good execution by the other team). I mean, especially in light of the Hightower injury that 4th quarter was just a disaster:

1) The Harper muff gave the Broncos moribund offense incredible field position -- bad to let up a TD there, but a tough spot.

2) On back-to-back series, the Patriots offense converts a huge 3rd down that is nullified by penalties, forcing them to go 3 & out and put the defense right back on the field.

3) On the Broncos go-ahead drive, Osweiler makes two of his best throws of the game to Thomas and Sanders.

4) Chung penalty nullifies the game-saving sack.

Obviously they played poorly and failed to execute. That's on them. But I'm not sure it deeply concerns me long-term, particularly if Collins and/or Hightower are playing.
 
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Norm Siebern

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Edit: and finally, Brady on WEEI this am is a must listen interview. http://www.patriots.com/audio/2015/11/30/tom-brady-weei-1130-it-was-very-hard-loss
1) He was as upset after this loss as any in his career, and was too angry to watch Phladelphia film on the plane home as usual.
2) He has no idea what OPI is or how Gronk can avoid it.
3) He did not expect the clock to wind at the end of regulation and was not prepared for that.
4) He remains somewhat furious that the team had massive 3rd downs wiped out by penalty and that LaFell was "hooked" on the 1st play of OT and no flag was thrown.
This makes me happy.One thing I have learned in fifteen years of watching the greatest QB ever in the NFL is that a pissed off ToM Brady is a superlative Tom Brady. The Broncos DO NOT want to play the Patriots again this year. Especially on the road.

In 2001 I watched a very good Maryland Men's BBall team lose to Duke in the ACC tournament, blowing a big lead as Maryland's hated opponent came storming back and beat them. It was a crushing loss to Maryland, who had every reason to think they would win the ACC Tourney that year. Four weeks later, Steve Blake and Maryland won the NCAA Championship, a run that included a victory over Duke, I believe, in the Final Four. To a man, everyone on that team said the best thing to happen to them was losing the ACC Tourney. It re-energized them as a team.

I think similar results for a Championship await the Patriots.

A pissed off Brady is the best possible Brady. We haven't seen anything yet.
 

54thMA

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Do you think Brady played poorly last night? I thought he played a fantastic game and was 100% doing his part. What can he do better the next time?
Agreed, he was fantastic last night, especially on the drive he led them on that ended with the game tying field goal with no Gronkowski, just a stellar effort.

He deserved better.
 

Norm Siebern

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Do you think Brady played poorly last night? I thought he played a fantastic game and was 100% doing his part. What can he do better the next time?
I thought he was fantastic last night. The drive to tie the game is so easily overlooked amidst the anger. That was remarkable. I thought he was off on a number of deep throws, but overall he was fantastic.

I think when he is pissed off and focused like we have seen countless times, he raises the entire team to levels of championship caliber. I think his leadership qualities tend to rise, and he misses fewer passes like the one he threw behind Gronk at around 5:00 in the 4th quarter. We have all seen it countless times in the last fifteen years. I am confident we see it again for the next two plus months. And this game will be highlighted in next year's "America's Game" as that final momentum push that was needed.


edit b/c I can't type.
 

loshjott

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This makes me happy.One thing I have learned in fifteen years of watching the greatest QB ever in the NFL is that a pissed off ToM Brady is a superlative Tom Brady. The Broncos DO NOT want to play the Patriots again this year. Especially on the road.

In 2001 I watched a very good Maryland Men's BBall team lose to Duke in the ACC tournament, blowing a big lead as Maryland's hated opponent came storming back and beat them. It was a crushing loss to Maryland, who had every reason to think they would win the ACC Tourney that year. Four weeks later, Steve Blake and Maryland won the NCAA Championship, a run that included a victory over Duke, I believe, in the Final Four. To a man, everyone on that team said the best thing to happen to them was losing the ACC Tourney. It re-energized them as a team.

I think similar results for a Championship await the Patriots.

A pissed off Brady is the best possible Brady. We haven't seen anything yet.
Better check that 2001 memory.

In 2001 Duke did indeed beat Maryland in the ACC tournament, but then beat them again in the Final Four after the Terps blew a huge lead.

In 2002 Maryland won the national championship but did not face Duke in either the ACC or NCAA tournament.
 

dbn

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I get what you're saying, Norm, but a pissed off Brady throwing the ball to Michael Williams and Matthew Slater doesn't inspire confidence. (Oh wait - Slater is hurt, too.)
 

Stitch01

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Nothing is more tedious than the old "


As everything stood, I think they made the right, aggressive call trying to pick up the first down.

The annoying thing on that series was that, right before the Gronk injury play, they were about 5-10 seconds of game clock away from being able to get to the 2:00 warning on second down. Brady snapped the ball at 2:53 (on the first down Gronk injury play) so if they run there, the Broncos can probably call their last timeout and then second down starts at 2:48 or something and if you run again, you still need to take the 3rd down snap before the 2:00 warning and you give Osweiler about 1:50 or so to come down the field after a punt. If Brady was snapping first down at 2:45, you can basically guarantee getting to snap 3rd down after the 2:00 warning and punt from the 40 at around the 1:15 mark, making an inexperienced QB go about 80-90 yards in 65-70 seconds or so for a TD with no timeouts in the snow. Pats win probability in that situation is super fucking high. Its a game of inches but also a game of seconds.
Im fine with how they played it and definitely wanted to go for the 1st down. Not doing so gave the Broncos two extra plays they didn't need with the way it played out and process wise I think going for the first down was certainly worth the risk of giving the ball back at 2:38 vs. 1:50. A first down even on the 1st play means the Broncos get it back deep in their own territory with like just over a minute left best case. They could have run on 2nd down to set up a more manageable third down with the benefit that Broncos either have to eat 40 seconds or the timeout so a third down incompletion doesn't hurt as much, but passing was fine too.
 

Devizier

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In 2001 I watched a very good Maryland Men's BBall team lose to Duke in the ACC tournament, blowing a big lead as Maryland's hated opponent came storming back and beat them. It was a crushing loss to Maryland, who had every reason to think they would win the ACC Tourney that year. Four weeks later, Steve Blake and Maryland won the NCAA Championship, a run that included a victory over Duke, I believe, in the Final Four. To a man, everyone on that team said the best thing to happen to them was losing the ACC Tourney. It re-energized them as a team.
Maryland's blown lead was in the 2001 NCAA tournament, right? They won the title in 2002.
 

Norm Siebern

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Better check that 2001 memory.

In 2001 Duke did indeed beat Maryland in the ACC tournament, but then beat them again in the Final Four after the Terps blew a huge lead.

In 2002 Maryland won the national championship but did not face Duke in either the ACC or NCAA tournament.
I'm not surprised my memory isn't perfect re. 2001. A lot of shit happened to me in 2001.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I'm surprised no one mentioned Alan Branch on the positive side. He made a number of big plays.
I did, at Post #5!

Branch was really great last night, and if not for the ridiculous holding call on Chung everybody would've been including him in their Top 3.
 

dynomite

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I did, at Post #5!

Branch was really great last night, and if not for the ridiculous holding call on Chung everybody would've been including him in their Top 3.
I also think this is one of the fallacies of the binary win/lose in sports.

Today Brock Osweiler is being hailed as a new franchise QB for the Broncos and the stories are all about his clutch comeback and performance.

But if not for that Chung call he has to get into the end zone on two plays from the 19, which he probably doesn't, and the Broncos lose 21-17, and everyone os wondering when he'll learn to be clutch and not take a sack there.

A fickle mistress, this sports thing is.
 

McBride11

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I'm gonna give a shout out to Bolden. He continues some strong special teams play and augments with some nice offensive work, including some nice catches and runs.

Re: 'Pissed of Brady' - he had a very good game, especially with what he was working with. The last FG drive was fantastic. But there were a number of missed throws long. I also vividly remember a missed crossing route to Gronk where he may still be running if the pass was on target. He was only 23/42 (54%). While 90% of QBs would call this an exceptional game, Brady can and will play better.

The refs have been discussed ad nauseum. Id rather them let them play and be consistent then what happened last night. I, like many others, had a small meltdown in the gamethread. A lot of the Broncos holding happen all the time in the NFL. Happens. BUT when crappy ticky tack stuff is called the other way it sucks. Let em both play. I understand the 'rules are the rules' but maybe sometimes interpreting the 'spirit of the rule' would be better. For example, thinking of all these 'what's a catch' questions these days. People who watch football generally know what a catch is when they see it, unless you're judging like a toe tap or if the ball actually slipped through someone's hands to hit the ground. Dez's playoff catch or Bryant's overturned catch yesterday for the Steelers yesterday. Both things at first glance everyone would say are catches. But they are looking too literally at the rules and it takes away from the general idea of the game.
 

Harry Hooper

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I think it was said above, but the OL gets the goat horns on this one. Very poor work in run blocking.

LaFell should have provided more.

The coaches for tanking the last possession of the first half. That was so weird (and stunning) to see. It was almost like they thought there was no way Ostweiler could put 20 points on the board for the Broncos, so just get it to halftime.
 

Tony C

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The OL stuff is what sticks with me. Harper is bench fodder and now a cut. A few other guys who made bad plays here and there, but overall the team played great. And the refs....yep, they sucked, but what can you do. And the injuries, well the Broncos had some, too.

But... the OL really sucked as a unit, particularly after the Broncos lost their NT. At the start of the game I saw those guys lined up as healthy as they've been (no Solder, of course) and thought it would be fun to see their key role in what looked to be a defensive battle. But they were manhandled pretty consistently in the trenches, which is the only worrying thing about that game. Not to downplay the Broncos defense, which is great, but still disappointing.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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The "day after", and I am fairly over the game. 10-1 with a game in hand and a ~.480 schedule is an enviable position to be in for pretty much all other teams minus Panthers.

The D did shut down the Denver offensive stars for pretty much 3 quarters and the rise of Ryan Logan (whom followed Revis like a puppy last year & worked out in Arizona two springs running) is a huge, huge development.

Other secondary pick ups like King, Bostic, and especially King continue to contribute, and Branch looks as comfortable as his heydays in Seattle.

Collins should be back, so is Amendola, and Chandler finally is (forced to) stepping up.

All in all, another opportunity to get focused and make sure a muffed punt does not cost you the game even if it happens again.
 

GeorgeCostanza

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Honestly, if you believe this, you are naive or in denial.

If you don't think a billion dollar company has the ability to sway things their way, I don't know what to tell you.

Edit: A labor strike from 2012 doesn't have a damn thing to do with last night. Nothing even has to be said to the refs. They know which side of their bread is buttered on. A Patriot loss, coupled with propping up Osweiler as the next big thing, is good for (national) ratings. Also, refs are regular guys. Not full-time, as we all know. You think, if approached, a cool extra hundred grand in your bank account (which is pennies to the NFL) is not enough to call an extra holding or PI call in a game?
You had me at you are naive or in denial, and then you edited.

A shitty nights sleep actually did wonders for this game. Also felt good to hear TBs frustrations because it's everything I felt. If anything (and especially given gronk and HT are ok) the game makes me feel even better that this team can go all the way. As others have said, look at everything that needed to happen to beat the guys, and even with all that it took overtime. Fingers crossed on health, this is going to be a fun ride in January.
 

GeorgeCostanza

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Did they connect on any of those sideline passes to Chandler? I can't remember one. Something just seemed off on those -- Chandler running slower than Brady thought? Due to the snow? Brady having trouble with the weather? Chandler simply not cut out to play that wide? I liked the explanation, but it seemed to be poor execution.
Only the touchdown but that wasn't very far.
 

j-man

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i do not want to play NE again even in denver as crazy as this sounds KC could be your worst nightmare Houston is almost as good as miller their front 3 can stop the run ball hawking DB'S A Smith does not turn the ball over Kelce can stench the field if the NFL wants no NE in super bowl 50 then KC couild the NFL only opinion to keep u out

but CBS is in your corner do u think cbs wants a CINY/ZONA SB or KC/Car NOOOO or denver with no manning no way
 

Peak Oil Can Boyd

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Butler had an otherwise great game, but I'm still confused as to how he was so far off Sanders on the bomb before Denver's go-ahead TD. Given the situation, I would have expected him to be conceding the come-back/out to protect against the deep ball at all costs but he had no chance on that ball.
 

Super Nomario

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Butler had an otherwise great game, but I'm still confused as to how he was so far off Sanders on the bomb before Denver's go-ahead TD. Given the situation, I would have expected him to be conceding the come-back/out to protect against the deep ball at all costs but he had no chance on that ball.
In hindsight, I wonder if the Pats should have played more of a prevent style. Denver had zero time outs and needed a touchdown. Let them throw a couple short routes to the TE and see if the clock running forces the young QB into a mistake. Instead they stayed aggressive with blitzing and press and it burned them.

(And then Denver probably should have stayed aggressive on the Pats' FG drive and instead they went soft and it burned them)
 

McBride11

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In hindsight, I wonder if the Pats should have played more of a prevent style. Denver had zero time outs and needed a touchdown. Let them throw a couple short routes to the TE and see if the clock running forces the young QB into a mistake. Instead they stayed aggressive with blitzing and press and it burned them.

(And then Denver probably should have stayed aggressive on the Pats' FG drive and instead they went soft and it burned them)

BB was probably reading SoSH and how we always bash his prevent at the end of halves / games and adjusted to meet our wishes.

But it is curious why he stayed aggressive. Concern that Mayo / Freeny more likely than Donta / Collins to be a liability in coverage? That underneath TE / RB pass goes from the 10-15 yd tackle in the middle of the field to a 30yd play where the Den guy gets oob.
 

RedOctober3829

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In hindsight, I wonder if the Pats should have played more of a prevent style. Denver had zero time outs and needed a touchdown. Let them throw a couple short routes to the TE and see if the clock running forces the young QB into a mistake. Instead they stayed aggressive with blitzing and press and it burned them.

(And then Denver probably should have stayed aggressive on the Pats' FG drive and instead they went soft and it burned them)
If they ran the ball with 2:53 left to make Denver use their last timeout and get it under the 2 minute warning before they got the ball back, I believe that with Denver having to go 80 yards with no timeouts and less than 2 minutes they would have played it differently.
 

Marciano490

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I love that they chose a picture where one of our D-linemen is being literally choked by a Denver player. I'd like to think a Pats fan picked that picture as a subtle protest.
 

dbn

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The photo looks bad, and there were certainly some missed holds against the Patriots D, but you can't really tell from the still alone on that one. Maybe Easley was doing a swim move. I mean, it was probably a blatant penalty but you'd need the video to know for sure.

That said, it's absolutely great that they chose that picture.
 

BernieRicoBoomer

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The photo looks bad, and there were certainly some missed holds against the Patriots D, but you can't really tell from the still alone on that one. Maybe Easley was doing a swim move. I mean, it was probably a blatant penalty but you'd need the video to know for sure.

That said, it's absolutely great that they chose that picture.
Here's a better look at it.
 

amarshal2

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I thought the cover was likely an exaggeration but it's actually much worse on video. That's the type of egregious hold that should be called every time.
 

GeorgeCostanza

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I thought the cover was likely an exaggeration but it's actually much worse on video. That's the type of egregious hold that should be called every time.
Yet I think that's the kind of move I recall seeing called the least. It may be selective memory or confirmation bias but I remember seeing Jones get that choke move pulled on him all the time.
 

mwonow

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So - is there a way to check officials' game grades? I'd be interested to know what Park Ave thinks of this crew's performance. Thumbs down because incompetence, or thumbs up because Pats?