The Game Goat Thread: Wk. 16 vs Buffalo

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
They are not going to beat Jacksonville next week. Today was a pathetic performance all the way around. I guess Folk had a decent game making all his kicks. All of you predicting that the Pats will win next week are sadly mistaken. I'm with @Smiling Joe Hesketh. I don't think the way the Pats played today they could have beaten the 0 and 16 Lions or 0 and 16 Browns. The Pats from the coaching staff on down ought to refund the fans money for a lackluster effort.
If they were playing in Jacksonville, and they let Myles Bryant get on the plane, I'd agree with you.

Instead, they are playing in Foxboro, and I think Bill is going to blow up Myles Bryant's house, so I think the Pats win.
 

Ralphwiggum

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2012
9,837
Needham, MA
They are not going to beat Jacksonville next week. Today was a pathetic performance all the way around. I guess Folk had a decent game making all his kicks. All of you predicting that the Pats will win next week are sadly mistaken. I'm with @Smiling Joe Hesketh. I don't think the way the Pats played today they could have beaten the 0 and 16 Lions or 0 and 16 Browns. The Pats from the coaching staff on down ought to refund the fans money for a lackluster effort.
They played poorly but it was a one score game in the fourth quarter. It’s the NFL and any given Sunday and all of that but declaring now that they are going to lose next week to an awful team is true hottest of hot take garbage. Get some calls in to Felger and Mazz this week.
 

Ralphwiggum

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2012
9,837
Needham, MA
Do people not watch other NFL games? The Steelers had a game in KC they needed today and got absolutely gutted. The Pats were not good today but even when they aren’t good they manage to be in the game late into the game more often than not. Jax could win next week but it would be a fairly large upset, and if you are absolutely positive it will happen there’s a lot of money you can make at the sports book.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
If the refs had let Pat the Patriot run on the field at random times when the Bills had the ball, it would have been better than giving Myles Bryant a helmet.

I'm so glad I went, there is no way my television would not have been destroyed (for the first time mind you) and I would have sent the fucking bill to Myles Bryant.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
I just want to keep saying Miles Bryant over and over again, so I remember his name.

If I ever end up in the same nursing home with him, I'm smothering him with a pillow.

Sorry, I'll stop the digression. Back to you guys talking about people not named Miles Bryant, with a little Miles Bryant sprinkled in.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,227
Imaginationland
They are not going to beat Jacksonville next week. Today was a pathetic performance all the way around. I guess Folk had a decent game making all his kicks. All of you predicting that the Pats will win next week are sadly mistaken. I'm with @Smiling Joe Hesketh. I don't think the way the Pats played today they could have beaten the 0 and 16 Lions or 0 and 16 Browns. The Pats from the coaching staff on down ought to refund the fans money for a lackluster effort.
The Pats were two 3rd and long stops (and a 4th and short stop) away from having the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead. They lost to a team with a very high ceiling and a top 3 QB playing at his best. Meanwhile, the Jaguars lost to the Jets.
 

Helmet Head

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
4,626
Central Mass
They are not going to beat Jacksonville next week. Today was a pathetic performance all the way around. I guess Folk had a decent game making all his kicks. All of you predicting that the Pats will win next week are sadly mistaken. I'm with @Smiling Joe Hesketh. I don't think the way the Pats played today they could have beaten the 0 and 16 Lions or 0 and 16 Browns. The Pats from the coaching staff on down ought to refund the fans money for a lackluster effort.
I mean, Jacksonville stinks. They just lost to Houston and the Jets back to back. Lawerence can’t do what Allen did today. Not even a little bit. Allen had an incredible day today. I admit I wasn’t really sold on Allen but today won me over. Can they lose to Jacksonville next week? Yes but really think it’s highly unlikely
 

Jungleland

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2009
2,371
Are people kidding with this season over shit? Yeah, this team probably isn't good enough to win 4 games in a row on the road against playoff teams. And mathematically they still might not even get there. But this was, however briefly, a 1 score game in the 4th quarter of their worst performance of the year (which yes, it took a bit of luck). They should still beat Jacksonville and then we'll see what happens.

And Mac sucked out loud today but let's hold off on throwing dirt over him. He was missing throws he could have made blindfolded in November. I'm about 10,000% more confident that the rookie wall, the weather, or some other physical breakdown are to blame than that he's as bad as he looked for 6.5 of the last 8 quarters. Maybe it's no longer looking as absolutely definitive that he's the answer, but please.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,900
Deep inside Muppet Labs
I mean, Jacksonville stinks. They just lost to Houston and the Jets back to back. Lawerence can’t do what Allen did today. Not even a little bit. Allen had an incredible day today. I admit I wasn’t really sold on Allen but today won me over. Can they lose to Jacksonville next week? Yes but really think it’s highly unlikely
If the Pats play Jax the way they played today they will 100% lose that game. No doubt about that at all. If they play this poorly Jacksonville will smoke them. Their effort today was not NFL-level play.

Two lousy games in a row coming off the bye week. Speaks to bad coaching and preparing.

Will they play that poorly? Probably not. But they’ve got it in them. Today was a complete embarrassment. Not a single punt forced. Allowing the Bills to get into the red zone on every one of their drives. Inexcusable drops, penalties, and mental mistakes. We’ve been saying for 14 weeks they need to clean this shit up and they never do it.
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
22,104
A Scud Away from Hell
I just want to keep saying Miles Bryant over and over again, so I remember his name.

If I ever end up in the same nursing home with him, I'm smothering him with a pillow.

Sorry, I'll stop the digression. Back to you guys talking about people not named Miles Bryant, with a little Miles Bryant sprinkled in.
A game ball to these rant posts @Deathofthebambino.

Hopefully we won't get a chance to see another series before the playoffs.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
24,944
Unreal America
If the Pats play Jax the way they played today they will 100% lose that game. No doubt about that at all. If they play this poorly Jacksonville will smoke them. Their effort today was not NFL-level play.

Two lousy games in a row coming off the bye week. Speaks to bad coaching and preparing.

Will they play that poorly? Probably not. But they’ve got it in them. Today was a complete embarrassment.
This doesn’t make sense to me. They played terribly but were down 6 to a team that’s light years better than the Jags. But they’ll get smoked by the Jags? I mean even if the Pats played exactly the same next Sunday they’d probably still beat the Jags, since Lawrence can’t take advantage of the D like Allen did. A loss to Jax likely means we have several more turnovers and blocked kicks.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
14,124
Boulder, CO
They are not going to beat Jacksonville next week. Today was a pathetic performance all the way around. I guess Folk had a decent game making all his kicks. All of you predicting that the Pats will win next week are sadly mistaken. I'm with @Smiling Joe Hesketh. I don't think the way the Pats played today they could have beaten the 0 and 16 Lions or 0 and 16 Browns. The Pats from the coaching staff on down ought to refund the fans money for a lackluster effort.
You’re never as good as you look when you win and you’re never as bad as you look when you lose. They should beat Jax handily.

If PFF doesn't grade Bryant a zero tomorrow (0r whatever the fucking lowest grade is), their entire operation should be blown up.

I'm only half kidding.
The numbers have to go negative. They have to. Bryant today should be Absolute Zero on their scale.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Every time someone says "Is the store open?" or "Your garage door is open"

I will respond with "Yes, if Miles Bryant is guarding it."

If someone says "are you guys closed"

I'm going to say "do you fucking see Miles Bryant around?"

We need a Miles Bryant SoSH Filter.

Ok, stopping now.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,900
Deep inside Muppet Labs
This doesn’t make sense to me. They played terribly but were down 6 to a team that’s light years better than the Jags. But they’ll get smoked by the Jags? I mean even if the Pats played exactly the same next Sunday they’d probably still beat the Jags, since Lawrence can’t take advantage of the D like Allen did. A loss to Jax likely means we have several more turnovers and blocked kicks.
It’s pretty simple: If they play as poorly next week as they did today they will lose the game. Period.

They didn’t make a SINGLE defensive stop on their own volition, Sanders dropped a wide open TD pass on 4th down unforced. You will never win an NFL game doing that. Never.
 

Ralphwiggum

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2012
9,837
Needham, MA
If the Pats play Jax the way they played today they will 100% lose that game. No doubt about that at all. If they play this poorly Jacksonville will smoke them. Their effort today was not NFL-level play.

Two lousy games in a row coming off the bye week. Speaks to bad coaching and preparing.

Will they play that poorly? Probably not. But they’ve got it in them. Today was a complete embarrassment. Not a single punt forced. Allowing the Bills to get into the red zone on every one of their drives. Inexcusable drops, penalties, and mental mistakes. We’ve been saying for 14 weeks they need to clean this shit up and they never do it.
There is no universe where the Pats get smoked by Jacksonville.

I know today sucked but come on. This forum gets shit on (undeservingly IMO) for low content posts but the reactionary bullshit when they lose is way worse than the fanboy stuff when they win.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
24,944
Unreal America
It’s pretty simple: If they play as poorly next week as they did today they will lose the game. Period.

They didn’t make a SINGLE defensive stop on their own volition, Sanders dropped a wide open TD pass on 4th down unforced. You will never win an NFL game doing that. Never.
I disagree. I think they could play as poorly next week and still possibly win, because Jax won’t go an entire game without punting the way the Bills did. I think we’ll need to play even worse to lose to the Jags.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,900
Deep inside Muppet Labs
There is no universe where the Pats get smoked by Jacksonville.

I know today sucked but come on. This forum gets shit on (undeservingly IMO) for low content posts but the reactionary bullshit when they lose is way worse than the fanboy stuff when they win.
There was no way Buffalo could ever lose to Jacksonville until they did.

This was more of a statement of how non competitive the Pats played today. Unless the Pats SIGNIFICANTLY improve the level of their play they won’t beat anyone at all. That was how bad they were today. This was Rod Rust-era level.
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Moderator
SoSH Member
Mar 19, 2004
15,201
Missoula, MT
Yep, and the Jags have no skill players close to Diggs, no O-line, a horrible defense, an interim coach, no RB, and a rookie QB.

We should roll over the Jags with ease. My guess is we win by 10+.
 

jezza1918

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,685
South Dartmouth, MA
There was no way Buffalo could ever lose to Jacksonville until they did.

This was more of a statement of how non competitive the Pats played today. Unless the Pats SIGNIFICANTLY improve the level of their play they won’t beat anyone at all. That was how bad they were today. This was Rod Rust-era level.
The patriots played terrible today, but Josh Allen is a large reason why. If you subbed in about 10 starting qbs in the league today for Allen, the pats probably win. That’s not to say they did anything at a level that says they are ready to make an actual playoff run, because the bills roster today with a bottom ten qb isn’t very good. But Allen played like an mvp today...hell I’d say even if you subbed in a bottom 10 qb on their clinching drive the pats would’ve gotten the ball back down 5 with a chance to win.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,900
Deep inside Muppet Labs
The patriots played terrible today, but Josh Allen is a large reason why. If you subbed in about 10 starting qbs in the league today for Allen, the pats probably win. That’s not to say they did anything at a level that says they are ready to make an actual playoff run, because the bills roster today with a bottom ten qb isn’t very good. But Allen played like an mvp today...hell I’d say even if you subbed in a bottom 10 qb on their clinching drive the pats would’ve gotten the ball back down 5 with a chance to win.
He made 1/2 throws across his body across the field that were just BEGGING to be picked off and at no point was any defender anywhere near them.

He was there for the taking and the Pats declined to do so. And that’s before talking about JC Jackson’s drop, which in a better world would get him to STFU forever but instead will accelerate his progress down the Asante Samuel “does nothing in big moments” path.
 

jezza1918

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,685
South Dartmouth, MA
He made 1/2 throws across his body across the field that were just BEGGING to be picked off and at no point was any defender anywhere near them.

He was there for the taking and the Pats declined to do so. And that’s before talking about JC Jackson’s drop, which in a better world would get him to STFU forever but instead will accelerate his progress down the Asante Samuel “does nothing in big moments” path.
Not defending pats defense at all, ymmv and all that but in my eyes I saw more an elite qb taking advantages of the pats holes. I think there are a fair amount of starting qbs in this league that wouldn’t have been able to take the same advantage...Trevor Lawrence being one of them (Mac Jones being another)
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,900
Deep inside Muppet Labs
Not defending pats defense at all, ymmv and all that but in my eyes I saw more an elite qb taking advantages of the pats holes. I think there are a fair amount of starting qbs in this league that wouldn’t have been able to take the same advantage...Trevor Lawrence being one of them (Mac Jones being another)
Yeah I don’t see it that way at all. Allen put up his numbers on crossing patterns on Bryant’s guy. He was good but he was hardly unstoppable. The Pats defense was never within 5 yards of anyone underneath all game. They stunk.

I don’t know who came up with that scheme but they should be fired even if it’s Nepotism Belichick and that defensive plan should never be used again.
 

jezza1918

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,685
South Dartmouth, MA
Yeah I don’t see it that way at all. Allen put up his numbers on crossing patterns on Bryant’s guy. He was good but he was hardly unstoppable. The Pats defense was never within 5 yards of anyone underneath all game. They stunk.

I don’t know who came up with that scheme but they should be fired even if it’s Nepotism Belichick and that defensive plan should never be used again.
That’s fair. Honest question - what do you think outcome is if you swapped Allen and Jones? I’ve been debating this one on my family chat today...
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,900
Deep inside Muppet Labs
That’s fair. Honest question - what do you think outcome is if you swapped Allen and Jones? I’ve been debating this one on my family chat today...
Jones was terrible today, so if you swap them the Pats likely win. I don’t know if it’s the rookie wall or what but he was horrible and I’m officially undecided about his future as an NFL franchise QB.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
That’s fair. Honest question - what do you think outcome is if you swapped Allen and Jones? I’ve been debating this one on my family chat today...
Pats win. No doubt about it.

Miles Bryant sucks, he sucks at everything. Oh my God, If I put on a helmet, tear a muscle doing so, run down to the field, pull a hammy in the process, jump on the field, get cuffed by the police and then played defense with no hammy, a pulled neck, an extra 40 pounds than I need, lungs that won't allow me to run longer than 15 or so yards at a time at "top speed," while in fucking handcuffs,

I WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER. At one point, we spent a while yelling at the refs to eject Bryant, for being an embarrassment to the sport.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Jones was terrible today, so if you swap them the Pats likely win. I don’t know if it’s the rookie wall or what but he was horrible and I’m officially undecided about his future as an NFL franchise QB.
Think he was talking about Jonathon Jones. But yeah, Mac would have played better defense than Bryant too. Just like me.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,900
Deep inside Muppet Labs
Pats win. No doubt about it.

Miles Bryant sucks, he sucks at everything. Oh my God, If I put on a helmet, tear a muscle doing so, run down to the field, pull a hammy in the process, jump on the field, get cuffed by the police and then played defense with no hammy, a pulled neck, an extra 40 pounds than I need, lungs that won't allow me to run longer than 15 or so yards at a time at "top speed."

I WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER. At one point, we spent a while yelling at the refs to eject Bryant, for being an embarrassment to the sport.
I love these rants, keep ‘em coming.
 

Jungleland

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2009
2,371
Allen was really good today, like actually the top 5 QB he came into the season anointed as good. If we want to knock him for one or two really dumb throws, we should credit him for 1 or 2 touchdowns his receivers completely botched. Hell, the game could have swung on 4th and 1 and he made a great cut to get upfield. I've been up and down on him as anyone, but he was absolutely nasty today.

Which is to say if the Patriots go into next week and an RB scores 3 touchdowns, they're winning fucking easily.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
24,944
Unreal America
There was no way Buffalo could ever lose to Jacksonville until they did.

This was more of a statement of how non competitive the Pats played today. Unless the Pats SIGNIFICANTLY improve the level of their play they won’t beat anyone at all. That was how bad they were today. This was Rod Rust-era level.
I watched just about every Pats game from 1989 to 1992, and this is too much. As awful as we played, we were a dropped pick/one stop against a QB having the game of his life from having a chance to take a lead late in the 4th. The Rod Rust Pats scored more than 21 points ONE time, in their first game of the season.
 

macal

New Member
Jul 31, 2005
74
Not in any particular order

1. Harry. His dropped pass was nothing more than an incompletion in the score sheet, however, the effect that can have on a rookie QB with not many offensive weapons can be huge. If you can’t trust your WR to catch an easy ball, when can you trust him? I also thought his effort on the interception was minimal. The ball was tipped before it got to him but it seems that he gave a half hearted attempt to at least knock the ball down. I’ll need to rewatch that to see if my eyes were deceived though.

2. Anyone that commited a bad penalty. Barmore and Brown! Even Andrews, but his didn’t have any effect on the outcome of the drive. My definition of a bad penalty is one that would not have given you any advantage, even if it wasn’t called.

3. Defensive coordinator, whoever that is. Whatever the defense was doing, it wasn’t working, yet to my eye, they didn’t seem to make any adjustments. There was practically no pressure on Allen for the whole game. He will shred you to pieces if given a chance. It’s like when other teams used to play Brady. Unless he was having an off day, the only way to stop him was with pressure. Some teams got it, most other teams didn’t.

4. And of course, Bryant

Apart from Harry, I didn’t think the offense had a terrible game. They still managed to score 3 touchdowns in a lopsided time of possession game, due to their defense. They were moving the ball well at times. I could see them easily getting a couple of more scores if the defense had made some stops. Shit, even 1 stop could have been the difference.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,024
Mansfield MA
It's incredible that Isaiah McKenzie torched the Pats' secondary.

12 targets
11 receptions (91.7% catch rate)
125 yards (11.4 ypc)
1 td

Just as a reminder, McKenzie is a guy who came into the game never having caught more than 30 passes in a season, and having been *TARGETED* just 11 times all year long before today.

Previous 9 games: 11 targets, 7 receptions (63.6% catch rate), 38 yards (5.4 ypc), 0 TD
Today vs the Pats: 12 targets, 11 receptions (91.7% catch rate), 125 yards (11.4 ypc), 1 TD

I mean...holy smokes.

New England's offense, by the way...

First game vs. Buf: 240 yds, 4.9 yds per play, 14 points, 1.6 points per possession
Today vs. Buf: 288 yds, 4.8 yds per play, 21 points, 2.6 points per possession

As frustrating as the offense was today, they weren't the problem. They were dealt a crappy hand all game long and still did okay. It was the defense that was godawful.
The D was also dealt a crappy hand because the O didn't move the ball very well so the Bills had great field position all day. The pick didn't help, either. That said, I agree: the D was much, much worse, embarrassingly bad. One of the worst performances under Belichick. Bryant stood out negatively, but 47 dropbacks and zero sacks is going to expose holes in the secondary on any team.

The offense was weird today; we've seen a few games where they moved the ball and then things petered out and they had to settle for field goals or whatever. Today they went 3/3 in the red zone but the offense did nada on the other drives. Is that progress? I dunno. Mac looked terrible. The offense was 1 of 10 on 3rd down (though, weirdly, 5 of 6 on 4th).
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,222
It’s pretty simple: If they play as poorly next week as they did today they will lose the game. Period.

They didn’t make a SINGLE defensive stop on their own volition, Sanders dropped a wide open TD pass on 4th down unforced. You will never win an NFL game doing that. Never.
I am mostly on team @Smiling Joe Hesketh on the bolded. The last 2 weeks have witnessed multiple missed tackles, bad blocking, turnovers, and poor play from the QB. If they do the same against Jax, there is a decent chance they will lose. Unless, of course, the Jaguars play worse, which they could do, as they are not very good. Still, with Meyer gone, the players on that team would love nothing better than to rally and knock off the team that has caused so many dreams to die on the turf of Gillette over the years.

I'm sure Belichick the Coach is saying the same thing to the players in the locker room and on the practice field all week. BB the Coach has had success getting the team to play hard when needed. No coach in the NFL can do so 100% of the time; witness the successive playoff eggs laid against the Ravens and the Jets.

The Bills have more talent on the roster, with a huge gap in the most important position on the field (unfortunately, that gap seems to be getting wider, but that's a different topic). 3 weeks ago, Belichick was able to take advantage of the weather and a hugely inspired performance by the team's defense to earn a victory against a better team on the road. Today we saw what happens when the regression to the mean occurs. The Pats linebackers got exposed; Mac got exposed; the Pats WR corps got exposed; that DB whose name I forgot got exposed.

The expected ceiling is a 11-6 wild card team that advances to the 2nd round. A not insignificant improvement over last year's 7-9 squad. The problem is that now they need to win in Miami to get there, and that is not at all guaranteed. At 10-7, they are likely going to be getting Gillette ready for the Hard Knocks film crew to arrive in July; look at the standings if you disagree.
 

patinorange

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 27, 2006
31,040
6 miles from Angel Stadium
Yep, and the Jags have no skill players close to Diggs, no O-line, a horrible defense, an interim coach, no RB, and a rookie QB.

We should roll over the Jags with ease. My guess is we win by 10+.
I tend to agree with you, but if the interim coach is looking at film of our ancient linebackers and the number one QB prospect in the last five years can throw a 5–10-yard pass, it's conceivable they could lose.
Bill has work to do this week.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
24,944
Unreal America
Still, with Meyer gone, the players on that team would love nothing better than to rally and knock off the team that has caused so many dreams to die on the turf of Gillette over the years.
Is there anyone on the Jags roster that was even there in 2017, let alone prior to that? Not sure that’ll be much motivation. They’ll play hard because a lot of the team is playing for being signed by someone else in 2022, but I doubt avenging Doug Marrone moves the needle.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
47,006
Hartford, CT
I am mostly on team @Smiling Joe Hesketh on the bolded. The last 2 weeks have witnessed multiple missed tackles, bad blocking, turnovers, and poor play from the QB. If they do the same against Jax, there is a decent chance they will lose. Unless, of course, the Jaguars play worse, which they could do, as they are not very good. Still, with Meyer gone, the players on that team would love nothing better than to rally and knock off the team that has caused so many dreams to die on the turf of Gillette over the years.

I'm sure Belichick the Coach is saying the same thing to the players in the locker room and on the practice field all week. BB the Coach has had success getting the team to play hard when needed. No coach in the NFL can do so 100% of the time; witness the successive playoff eggs laid against the Ravens and the Jets.

The Bills have more talent on the roster, with a huge gap in the most important position on the field (unfortunately, that gap seems to be getting wider, but that's a different topic). 3 weeks ago, Belichick was able to take advantage of the weather and a hugely inspired performance by the team's defense to earn a victory against a better team on the road. Today we saw what happens when the regression to the mean occurs. The Pats linebackers got exposed; Mac got exposed; the Pats WR corps got exposed; that DB whose name I forgot got exposed.

The expected ceiling is a 11-6 wild card team that advances to the 2nd round. A not insignificant improvement over last year's 7-9 squad. The problem is that now they need to win in Miami to get there, and that is not at all guaranteed. At 10-7, they are likely going to be getting Gillette ready for the Hard Knocks film crew to arrive in July; look at the standings if you disagree.
At 10-7 (with a win over JAX and loss to MIA) they are a heavy favorite to get in as a wild card team.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,821
Guys, the Jags lost to the Jets and we had ~20 guys out with Covid and also the Head Coach. Things would have to go very very wrong for this game to be close. You lost to the Colts and the Bills, those teams are good. That doesn’t mean the Jags have a legitimate chance.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
I am mostly on team @Smiling Joe Hesketh on the bolded. The last 2 weeks have witnessed multiple missed tackles, bad blocking, turnovers, and poor play from the QB. If they do the same against Jax, there is a decent chance they will lose. Unless, of course, the Jaguars play worse, which they could do, as they are not very good. Still, with Meyer gone, the players on that team would love nothing better than to rally and knock off the team that has caused so many dreams to die on the turf of Gillette over the years.

I'm sure Belichick the Coach is saying the same thing to the players in the locker room and on the practice field all week. BB the Coach has had success getting the team to play hard when needed. No coach in the NFL can do so 100% of the time; witness the successive playoff eggs laid against the Ravens and the Jets.

The Bills have more talent on the roster, with a huge gap in the most important position on the field (unfortunately, that gap seems to be getting wider, but that's a different topic). 3 weeks ago, Belichick was able to take advantage of the weather and a hugely inspired performance by the team's defense to earn a victory against a better team on the road. Today we saw what happens when the regression to the mean occurs. The Pats linebackers got exposed; Mac got exposed; the Pats WR corps got exposed; that DB whose name I forgot got exposed.

The expected ceiling is a 11-6 wild card team that advances to the 2nd round. A not insignificant improvement over last year's 7-9 squad. The problem is that now they need to win in Miami to get there, and that is not at all guaranteed. At 10-7, they are likely going to be getting Gillette ready for the Hard Knocks film crew to arrive in July; look at the standings if you disagree.
I think at 10-7, the Pats are in without question. Those teams sitting at 7 losses and 8 losses are almost all playing each other in the next 2 weeks. Ravens/Steelers, Raiders/Chargers (Raiders also play the Colts). There will be a bunch of losses for the teams behind the Pats, and I think the Pats have a bunch of them beat on conference tiebreakers (which is crazy with the Pats going 2-4 in the division if the loss is to Miami).
 

jezza1918

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,685
South Dartmouth, MA
I think at 10-7, the Pats are in without question. Those teams sitting at 7 losses and 8 losses are almost all playing each other in the next 2 weeks. Ravens/Steelers, Raiders/Chargers (Raiders also play the Colts). There will be a bunch of losses for the teams behind the Pats, and I think the Pats have a bunch of them beat on conference tiebreakers (which is crazy with the Pats going 2-4 in the division if the loss is to Miami).
3-3. Two wins vs the jets and one vs buff. Bryant is bad, but not so bad he changed the standings...

add on - believe it was discussed on another thread or maybe I saw it on Twitter, but pats are in with a win vs Jax unless both Miami and raiders win out.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Pats are 3-3 in the division if they lose 2 to Miami
That's right. I thought they lost twice to the Bills today, because of Miles Bryant.

Still amazing to own conference tiebreakers at 3-3 in the division.

And yeah, I fucking know it's Myles. But motherfucker doesn't even deserve to have his named spelled right after that.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
47,006
Hartford, CT
I think at 10-7, the Pats are in without question. Those teams sitting at 7 losses and 8 losses are almost all playing each other in the next 2 weeks. Ravens/Steelers, Raiders/Chargers (Raiders also play the Colts). There will be a bunch of losses for the teams behind the Pats, and I think the Pats have a bunch of them beat on conference tiebreakers (which is crazy with the Pats going 2-4 in the division if the loss is to Miami).
The only problematic tiebreakers they have with the bubble teams are the Dolphins if they lose in Week 18 (0-2 head to head, which always sinks them even in a three or four team tie scenario because division tiebreakers are applied first) and LV if LV improbably runs the table v IND and LAC (tied in conf record and lose common games). Everyone else in this convo - LAC, CLE, BAL - they have in either head to head or conference record
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,821
That's right. I thought they lost twice to the Bills today, because of Miles Bryant.

Still amazing to own conference tiebreakers at 3-3 in the division.

And yeah, I fucking know it's Myles. But motherfucker doesn't even deserve to have his named spelled right after that.
I feel like there is a Stopping by the Woods on a Snowy Evening parody in the works.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
The only problematic tiebreakers they have with the bubble teams are the Dolphins if they lose in Week 18 (0-2 head to head, which always sinks them even in a three or four team tie scenario because division tiebreakers are applied first) and LV if LV improbably runs the table v IND and LAC (tied in conf record and lose common games). Everyone else in this convo - LAC, CLE, BAL - they have in either head to head or conference record
I'm officially going on record then, thanks for this breakdown:

Las Vegas ain't running the table, and the Pats are in with a win next week. I could be mistaken, but I think there is a possibility the Pats win next week, it could lock them into the 6 seed no matter what, and week 17 becomes a get healthy/bye week game.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,222
The only problematic tiebreakers they have with the bubble teams are the Dolphins if they lose in Week 18 (0-2 head to head, which always sinks them even in a three or four team tie scenario because division tiebreakers are applied first) and LV if LV improbably runs the table v IND and LAC (tied in conf record and lose common games). Everyone else in this convo - LAC, CLE, BAL - they have in either head to head or conference record
Thanks for the note. I should have checked the other thread and remaining schedules.

Still, the Jax game really matters.
 

McBride11

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
22,175
Durham, NC
Everything is between the hashes. And other teams are figuring this out (and mostly 15 yards within the LOS). I'd rather have him throw a couple of balls deep down the sidelines with 1on1, than any deep ball over the middle with a safety.

If you're spitting out Jonnu Smith wide ( and I mean wide), presumably it's because you're getting a mismatch on a smaller corner. Otherwise, he's literally just a waste of space out there. If you get 1on1 with a guy 4 inches smaller, 75 pounds lighter, and a big athletic freak, you throw it once in a while. Same with Harry, he's out there, getting 1on1 all day, and maybe he isn't going to outrun a defender, but you know what, its half a defender when you have Harry's size and the sideline on the other side. All Mac has to do is not be short with the throw and give these guys a chance. He doesn't even look their way.. They aren't even decoys on deep routes. It's making me insane at every game. No idea if that's Mac or coaching, but I would be hard pressed to believe Josh is out there in practice saying "if you see Jonnu or N'Keal one on one, no safety on the outside, don't even look at them."

I can't even blame Jonnu for the big fucking penalty. If you want Jonnu, who had zero fucking targets to stay in and block, or run a route that nobody will ever throw to, we shouldn't be surprised if he holds now and again. They are treating him like he's a 6th OL or a guy they need to be way over there somewhere. O Lineman get holding penalties, it's part of it. The "Go stand over there, if the ball comes to you, catch it" when he's not blocking is getting old. Dude is an athlete. On a team lacking athletes. Henry averages 3.0 yards after catch per catch. Smith averages 7.7. But it's so fucking weird how they are using these guys. Henry is losing 4.7 yards per reception to Smith after the catch, but still averaging more yards per catch like 11.5ypc to 10.1 for Smith. They are getting Henry down the middle of the field to catch the ball, but throwing the ball on 2-3 yard routes (or swing passes, screens, etc.) to Smith. Henry is a great weapon in his own right. But Smith is really good too, and it makes no sense to me.
i am in complete agreement. They (mac) need to try more options. If they want him to pass, make use of the mismatches. Why pay money for smith and henry to not use them
More. If you dont want him to be aggressive, dont abandon the run game in q1

What we cannot decipher - is this a mac issue or coaching. But it needs to be addressed as we are not fully utilizing their assets.

my ‘not afraid down the middle’ was tongue in cheek.
 

DukeSox

absence hasn't made the heart grow fonder
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2005
11,756

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
22,104
A Scud Away from Hell
Yep, and the Jags have no skill players close to Diggs, no O-line, a horrible defense, an interim coach, no RB, and a rookie QB.

We should roll over the Jags with ease. My guess is we win by 10+.
The early line is -15.5.

Come on, folks. The last two losses were terrible but it's the Jags.

The real gut check is in Miami.