The Game Goat Thread: Wk.4 vs The GOAT

joe dokes

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In real time I was surprised they didn't go for it in the 1st half. As to the end, I think it's pretty de riguer for coaches to know *exactly* how far the kicker can go in each direction each game, so I was confident on that part of the 56-yarder. I thought kick vs. go at the end was a coin flip. Obviously, BB was pretty confident in the defense.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The universal game goat OL was barely giving Mac any time on the last drive and it would have been an absolute gamble asking them to hold up for one more play + any other plays had they converted the 4th down. They were playing like shit and absolutely gassed.
They marched down from their own 25 to Tampa's 37 in under a minute, how is that "playing like shit"? It was an also an "absolute gamble" to ask Folk to try to exceed his career long FG kicking in pouring rain - a gamble that didn't work out.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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The Bucs had scored the last three times they had the ball, so the most baffling part of the decision at the end of the game is that the Pats could possibly stop Brady from getting into FG range (essentially getting 40+ yards in 50 seconds with 2 time outs and an injured Jon Jones trying to cover AB). Actually, the Pats never should have been in the position to make the decision but for poor decisions by Brady / Bucs to go for the TD rather than just try to bleed the clock and get a first down which would have ended the game. With flag happy refs, the Bucs having their entire secondary going down (including Winfield in the final minutes), the weather conditions, Folk going for a career long with supposedly a bum plant foot, and over a minute left and two time outs for the Bucs...I'm sure the Bucs were happy by the decision (if the situation was reversed the Pats (and their fans) would have been ecstatic that the Bucs tried the kick, even with Mac as their QB...imagine if we still had Brady). The decision to kick is simply incorrect (and was proven so). Next Gen stats backs this up and it wasn't all that close.
 

Jimbodandy

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around the way
He's not infallible.
People are still talking about him fucking up by going for it on 4th and 2 against the Colts like 15 years ago. Because it didn't work. Yet, he's a genius for giving Peyton the ball first (different game) in overtime going into the wind...because it did work.

He's not infallible, but we are. Because we have hindsight.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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They marched down from their own 25 to Tampa's 37 in under a minute, how is that "playing like shit"? It was an also an "absolute gamble" to ask Folk to try to exceed his career long FG kicking in pouring rain - a gamble that didn't work out.
20 of that was a gift PI. They got another gift in the missed false start on Wynn and Mac was hurried on every throw, but besides that, they definitely marched behind the stellar play of the OL. The decision was a coin-flip, but completely defensible. Sucks it didn't work out.
 

RIrooter09

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People are still talking about him fucking up by going for it on 4th and 2 against the Colts like 15 years ago. Because it didn't work. Yet, he's a genius for giving Payton the ball first (different game) in overtime going into the wind...because it did work.

He's not infallible, but we are. Because we have hindsight.
People on this board are still criticizing 4th and 2?
 

OurF'ingCity

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People are still talking about him fucking up by going for it on 4th and 2 against the Colts like 15 years ago. Because it didn't work. Yet, he's a genius for giving Peyton the ball first (different game) in overtime going into the wind...because it did work.

He's not infallible, but we are. Because we have hindsight.
I thought the decision to kick was stupid well before the ball doinked off the upright.
 

moretsyndrome

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People on this board are still criticizing 4th and 2?
No. As I recall at the time, most supported going for it, as the numbers slightly supported it. Just as the numbers slightly supported going for it last night. Neither instance is a glaring "one way is correct, the other is glaringly wrong" scenario, but neither was it a coin flip. It was probably closer to 55-45% chance of the more favorable outcome if you go for it.

Worth mentioning and asking why. Or I guess we could just close up shop, since he's a genius and all.
 

lexrageorge

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20 of that was a gift PI. They got another gift in the missed false start on Wynn and Mac was hurried on every throw, but besides that, they definitely marched behind the stellar play of the OL. The decision was a coin-flip, but completely defensible. Sucks it didn't work out.
Another consideration is that the Tampa secondary was defending most of the field during the earlier parts of the drive. On the 4th-and-3, they would be defending a 5 yard window around the sticks without any threat of a running play. Much easier ask of the Tampa defense. And another false start or a hold by the OL would knock them out of FG range completely. Mac made some throws, but this one would be by far the most difficult for him to make.

The Pats defense had played much better the entire game than the offense, so that is another consideration when it comes to the "why hand it back to Brady" question.

In any event, to paraphrase another post I saw on one of these threads, be thankful the result wasn't a pass to Bolden or Gunner 1 yard short of sticks, followed by the line judge blowing the spot on the resulting tackle. The SoSH IT folks would have a sleepless week just keeping the servers running.
 

lexrageorge

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No. As I recall at the time, most supported going for it, as the numbers slightly supported it. Just as the numbers slightly supported going for it last night. Neither instance is a glaring "one way is correct, the other is glaringly wrong" scenario, but neither was it a coin flip. It was probably closer to 55-45% chance of the more favorable outcome if you go for it.

Worth mentioning and asking why. Or I guess we could just close up shop, since he's a genius and all.
And the stats do not take into account some of the key context.

In Indy, the fact that the Pats defense was totally gassed after playing a furious game in a hot dome is a context that is not found in the numbers. Last night, the weather and the relative play of the offense (OL in particular) and the defense was a consideration. I agree that it was a close call; either call is defensible, IMO. The FG try was hardly the fireable offense some here are making it out to be.
 

Cotillion

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1. The offensive line as a unit.
2. JJT for his disastrous fumble.
T3. Isaiah Wynn, who hasn't been good this year, had his worst game of the season.
T3. Justin Herron, who was his usual kind of bad.
T3. Mike Onwenu, supposed to be their best talent on the OL, got but got himself benched.
4T. Matt Slater. How the fuck does a 10+ year career special teamer who does nothing else but special teams not know the rules about getting forced out of bounds?

The run defense was not good, but wasn't think partly due to scheme with the Pats playing a lot of DBs?

It was stupid to run a zero blitz at a key point in the game and let Brady pick it apart, which he did.

But lots of good things tonight, unlike last week.
  • Mac was in rhythm for parts of the game, really for the first time since parts of the second half in the Miami game, and despite the terrible offensive line play. Mac threw one pick today, but that was partly because a blitzer came free up the middle and he had no time.
  • Saw more out of Guy, Godchaux than they have shown in prevous games thus year.
  • Matt Judon has been the best part FA signing right out of the gate in a while.
we’ll even the refs don’t know the rules as the other team has to let the guy come back in and more than once on separate plays the Bucs players blocked Slater when he was outside the lines (beyond the initial block that took him out).
 

axx

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Just as the numbers slightly supported going for it last night.
Frankly I'm impressed that Folk came that close to actually making it. I do think the Patriots win the game if he makes it so it's at least somewhat defensible but no way was it 50-50.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The FG try was hardly the fireable offense some here are making it out to be.
Literally no one is saying that Belichick should be fired. Belichick is a great coach but not above criticism, and criticizing him - even harshly - is not anywhere close to saying he should be fired.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Literally no one is saying that Belichick should be fired. Belichick is a great coach but not above criticism, and criticizing him - even harshly - is not anywhere close to saying he should be fired.
I think there were a few saying it last night. Definitely a small minority though.
 

speedracer

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Actual probabilities matter a lot, as everyone knows.

But so do the models/methods we use to estimate these probabilities. I think there were two models thrown out there that calculated WP deltas of 10% (which is a lot, what most of us would consider a major blunder) — in opposite directions!

Leaving aside the probability of a Bucs comeback for now, if we think the 4th-and-3 is successful about 50% of the time, then the expected outcome of that play would have to double Folk’s chances to be correct. If you estimate Folk to be 40% to hit from 56, then going for it looks awful, but if you estimate him to be say 15%, it looks a lot better.

And of course if you think the Pats are really 1-in-3 to convert, then going for it would have to triple the chances of a FG to be worth it.

My priors on Folk hitting from 56 were pretty low — he’s been a consistent kicker for a long time in less-than-optimal weather, but he’s also 36 and his lone prior hit from 56 was in Denver, so I’m thinking that over his career, there’s a reason he’s not been asked to push that limit.

I’m not inclined to put a lot of weight on warmup kicks, and the actual attempt that he got off in anger didn’t look super reproducible to me, but my evaluation of this evidence could be way off here. And kicking instruction/technique has improved a lot in the last 15 years, the balls are easier to hit, etc, so maybe priors based on the last 15 years need to be adjusted upward.

No real overarching point here, just a brain dump that folks hopefully find interesting.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Did the last 20 years not happen? The percentage of responses that are seemingly comfortable with turning the ball over to Tom Freakin' Brady under those end-of-game circumstances with a one point lead is higher than I would have expected, I have to say.
I'd rather give Brady a last chance down by one than give it to him with the lead to do kneel downs.
we’ll even the refs don’t know the rules as the other team has to let the guy come back in and more than once on separate plays the Bucs players blocked Slater when he was outside the lines (beyond the initial block that took him out).
Slater made no obvious effort to get back in bounds, though.
 

Bleedred

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On the FG, for what it's worth, the entire team on Mike Greenberg's show on ESPN (includes Rex Ryan and Dan Orlovsky, didn't know who the third guy was) all said that the decision to kick the FG was the right one. They all said it emphatically and without a doubt.
 

Cellar-Door

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Agreed. I'm hardly the biggest football fanatic on here but I've been watching the NFL for a long time and that was as obvious an application of that penalty as I've seen.
yeah people pointing to the shove when he finally tries to come back are missing that he ran half his run before that, and the flag was likely already on the field by then. You have about 10 yards tops to make a strong effort to get back in, before the ref is reaching for the flag he went at least twice that and then didn't make much of an effort off the bump and ran another 15-20 before coming in again.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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How would it not be off-setting penalties? Does it become legal to initiate a block out of bounds if the other player hasn't made enough effort to get back in? Because that seems dubious. Feels like the refs gave TB 15 free yards of field position. (I'm going off of Collinsworth's assertion that it's illegal to initiate a block out of bounds. I can't actually find the rule after quick googling.)
 

Mystic Merlin

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How would it not be off-setting penalties? Does it become legal to initiate a block out of bounds if the other player hasn't made enough effort to get back in? Because that seems dubious. Feels like the refs gave TB 15 free yards of field position. (I'm going off of Collinsworth's assertion that it's illegal to initiate a block out of bounds. I can't actually find the rule after quick googling.)
I do not think it a penalty to block a gunner out of bounds and/or try to keep him pinned against the boundary. It IS illegal for the gunner to not attempt to get back in bounds as soon as he is able, even if he is being re engaged while doing so. You can’t run along the boundary for twenty yards without re engaging, in other words.

In theory a player tracking the gunner could get an unnecessary roughness penalty but that’s true of any play, and I don’t see anything remotely reaching that standard on this play.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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That's the thing though, the second man IMO clearly engaged him while he (the blocker) was out of bounds as well, which is what CC was saying was a penalty. I'm not trying to absolve Slater. I'm wondering if the refs missed a second penalty.
 

lexrageorge

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That's the thing though, the second man IMO clearly engaged him while he (the blocker) was out of bounds as well, which is what CC was saying was a penalty. I'm not trying to absolve Slater. I'm wondering if the refs missed a second penalty.
If both players were indeed out of bounds, then the block should have been a penalty. But I can see why such a call gets missed when Slater keeps running down the field and then turns inbounds.
 

ShaneTrot

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I was listening to the Ringer football podcast last week, they said that the Pats have been in more 3 man fronts on defense than the next closest team by a large margin. They also have been very conservative on offense, as well, unless the game situation dictated that they had to air the ball out. Are they being so conservative because of so many new players? The rookie QB? Maybe the defensive front thing is them zigging while everyone else zags.

I am guessing BB is trying to figure what this team is good at.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Holy shit we are still talking about the running out of bounds play? I've seen that called the same way dozens of times, I'm not sure why there is any controversy here. If you do that it gets called like 90 percent of the time. If you do that and get involved with the tackle it gets called 100 percent of the time.
 

joe dokes

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That's the thing though, the second man IMO clearly engaged him while he (the blocker) was out of bounds as well, which is what CC was saying was a penalty. I'm not trying to absolve Slater. I'm wondering if the refs missed a second penalty.
I didnt' see that happen. The TB players, smartly, IMO, ran right along the sideline (but inbounds), parallel to Slater's 30-yard out-of-bounds sprint. Slater would have gotten blasted the minute he stepped back inbounds. I suspect Slater was surprised that they were keeping up with him, knew he was screwed, and hoped he could get away with it.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think the sideline call was 100% correct but I still want to applaud Slater’s effort there. Dude was a heat seeking missile for the football the moment he got back on the field. He really is amazing at this.
 

patinorange

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Holy shit we are still talking about the running out of bounds play? I've seen that called the same way dozens of times, I'm not sure why there is any controversy here. If you do that it gets called like 90 percent of the time. If you do that and get involved with the tackle it gets called 100 percent of the time.
I think the only controversy (at least in the game thread) is that Slater made a great hit and caused a turnover. He also made a rookie mistake to nullify it.
If there was no fumble, no one would have had an issue with the call. Easiest flag they threw all night.
 

Cellar-Door

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If we're really going to re-litigate it here's the replay:
View: https://twitter.com/ByChrisMason/status/1445045539402305542


Slater goes out at the 12, at the 38 he makes some attempt to angle in bounds. The defender shoves him, but does so from in-bounds, which is legal. Slater then runs all the way to the TB 48 before he gets into the field of play. So he ran 26 yards untouched out of bounds, then another 14 after the touch before coming in. That's as open an shut a penalty as there is, and the shove at the 38 was by a player in-bounds when he initiated contact, so it is not a foul.
 

heavyde050

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I understood the pessimism last night in the heat of the moment, but after a night to reflect...come on, people. This is essentially a brand new team, with new guys in new roles all over the place. We're four games in, and just went punch for punch with the defending champs all the way down to the last minute. The defense looked very good last night against a juggernaut offense. The team was a horrible fumble and a missed FG (both in pouring rain) from winning and being at 2-2 right now.

Belichick won 6 Super Bowls for us, the franchise QB left on the day a worldwide pandemic shut the whole league down and killed the offseason...can the guy get, I don't know, a year and a half to get it going again?

Game goat was JJ Taylor. That fumble cost them the game, IMO. I, for one, will never complain about Bolden being on the field again.

On a final note, it was great to see 2019 Brady in the house...it would have sucked to see him come in and play better in Foxboro than he has in 5 years. That didn't happen. The guy we saw last night was the one we were ready to move on from.

Offensive line was bad, BUT pulled it together down the stretch a bit. You can see light at the end of this tunnel. On to next week.
Not a 100% sold on the "2019 Brady" unless you meant earlier in the year. I mean he threw an absolute dime (probably better than any pass he threw the last half of his year in New England) to Brown that was caught and called back on a penalty. He also threw a really good pass to win the game with a TD that Brown probably should have caught. I am just saying it wasn't vintage Brady or even his "A" game, but it was way better than what he did against the Titans.

Edit - having said all that, I am super happy the Pats have seemingly found their next QB. Mac looked great.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Nobody is asking to re-litigate the Slater penalty. It was clear as day.

What's not clear as day is whether or not the TB player contacted him while inbounds. Saying he definitively that he did is ridiculous. Feel free to scrub through the frames yourself. A down the sideline angle is the only way to tell for sure, but the first frame here looks like his foot surely could be on the line. Then in the frame where it's clear he's made contact his left foot is above the ground OB, and when it hits turf again it's 5 inches out of bounds.

44876
44877
 

Ed Hillel

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Forget the second shove, there was a clear as day block in the back in the middle of the field. Can’t get more obvious.
 

Cellar-Door

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Nobody is asking to re-litigate the Slater penalty. It was clear as day.

What's not clear as day is whether or not the TB player contacted him while inbounds. Saying he definitively that he did is ridiculous. Feel free to scrub through the frames yourself. A down the sideline angle is the only way to tell for sure, but the first frame here looks like his foot surely could be on the line. Then in the frame where it's clear he's made contact his left foot is above the ground OB, and when it hits turf again it's 5 inches out of bounds.
I mean, even in the MOST generous interpretation you're asking a ref to notice that one of his feet MAY have been like 6 inches on the line when he made contact, to call a bailout penalty.
Nobody calls that, nobody should call that. It's a clear penalty on Slater, there is little to no evidence that the TB player committed one.

Any time you are scrubbing single frames to determine if something happened...

Both by the letter and spirit of the law there is no way that should be called.
Honestly, this is all just wild straw grasping because our player committed an obvious penalty and we are looking desperately for something anything to excuse it. The play was called correctly. Sure Slater forced a fumble, but the only reason he was in position to do it is he got basically 50 yards of free run out of bounds, which is why the rule is there.

If we really want to get into semantics I should have said: "there is not clear evidence the TB player was out of bounds at the time of contact" but really... this is so stupid. It's a clear penalty on Slater and clearly shouldn't be a penalty on TB.
 

lexrageorge

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Forget the second shove, there was a clear as day block in the back in the middle of the field. Can’t get more obvious.
Honestly do not see any block in the back. The initial block to push Slater out of bonds by Delaney (#30) was perfectly legal. Then Delaney gives him an extra push while both are out of bounds, which could be flagged, IMO. But I can see how that was easy to miss. Then Adams (#26) shoves Slater, but by then Slater had essentially committed to the penalty, and if Adams was out of bounds it was just barely.

Slater's running multiple yards while out of bounds, however, was obvious and nearly always gets called.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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I mean, even in the MOST generous interpretation you're asking a ref to notice that one of his feet MAY have been like 6 inches on the line when he made contact, to call a bailout penalty.
Nobody calls that, nobody should call that. It's a clear penalty on Slater, there is little to no evidence that the TB player committed one.

Any time you are scrubbing single frames to determine if something happened...

Both by the letter and spirit of the law there is no way that should be called.
Honestly, this is all just wild straw grasping because our player committed an obvious penalty and we are looking desperately for something anything to excuse it. The play was called correctly. Sure Slater forced a fumble, but the only reason he was in position to do it is he got basically 50 yards of free run out of bounds, which is why the rule is there.

If we really want to get into semantics I should have said: "there is not clear evidence the TB player was out of bounds at the time of contact" but really... this is so stupid. It's a clear penalty on Slater and clearly shouldn't be a penalty on TB.

This is a league where if someone taps another person's chin they get called for hands to the face penalty even if it happens on the other side of the field away from the play, so the idea that there's spirit of the law calls in the NFL is honestly pretty funny. And it's not semantics you said in no uncertain terms he shoved him from in-bounds. If Nick Folk could have moved the goalposts like this last night we'd be talking about the 2-2 New England Patriots.
 

Ed Hillel

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Honestly do not see any block in the back. The initial block to push Slater out of bonds by Delaney (#30) was perfectly legal. Then Delaney gives him an extra push while both are out of bounds, which could be flagged, IMO. But I can see how that was easy to miss. Then Adams (#26) shoves Slater, but by then Slater had essentially committed to the penalty, and if Adams was out of bounds it was just barely.

Slater's running multiple yards while out of bounds, however, was obvious and nearly always gets called.
No, it was another player in the middle of the field. Bethel maybe.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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In the spirit of the old 3 up 3 down version of this thread:

DOWN: it's been well-litigated here: OL (esp. the left side), JJ Taylor, aging LBs
UP: Mac Jones, Christian Barmore, Jakobi Meyers. And the coaches -- both BB and Josh.
 

rodderick

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I understood the pessimism last night in the heat of the moment, but after a night to reflect...come on, people. This is essentially a brand new team, with new guys in new roles all over the place. We're four games in, and just went punch for punch with the defending champs all the way down to the last minute. The defense looked very good last night against a juggernaut offense. The team was a horrible fumble and a missed FG (both in pouring rain) from winning and being at 2-2 right now.

Belichick won 6 Super Bowls for us, the franchise QB left on the day a worldwide pandemic shut the whole league down and killed the offseason...can the guy get, I don't know, a year and a half to get it going again?

Game goat was JJ Taylor. That fumble cost them the game, IMO. I, for one, will never complain about Bolden being on the field again.

On a final note, it was great to see 2019 Brady in the house...it would have sucked to see him come in and play better in Foxboro than he has in 5 years. That didn't happen. The guy we saw last night was the one we were ready to move on from.

Offensive line was bad, BUT pulled it together down the stretch a bit. You can see light at the end of this tunnel. On to next week.
This is a bad take regarding Brady. Dude was the highest rated player on the Bucs yesterday per PFF. He wasn't amazing, but he was pretty good and drops made his numbers look a whole lot worse than he played. And "we" were ready to move on from him? Maybe speak for yourself there.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is a bad take regarding Brady. Dude was the highest rated player on the Bucs yesterday per PFF. He wasn't amazing, but he was pretty good and drops made his numbers look a whole lot worse than he played. And "we" were ready to move on from him? Maybe speak for yourself there.
Brady went 22-43 last night with 6.3 Y/A and led exactly 1 TD drive, which started at midfield. He was sailing throws all over the place despite having time most of the night. He wasn’t bad by any stretch but I thought it was a pretty mediocre game for him. To coop’s point, it looked like late season 2019 Brady to me except with the benefit of a solid OL, 3 really good WRs, and Leonard Fournette.

I don’t agree with the “ready to move on” piece. I certainly wasn’t. But I do agree that Brady wasn’t as sharp as he normally is. Last night kind of reminded me of Q1 Super Bowl Brady, to be honest.

With all that said, the dude is 44 and still has a great arm and that play where he rolled out and found AB on the sidelines was really impressive. My brain simply won’t be able to process when Brady finally does slip for an extended period of time. It’ll be so foreign.
 

chilidawg

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In the spirit of the old 3 up 3 down version of this thread:

DOWN: it's been well-litigated here: OL (esp. the left side), JJ Taylor, aging LBs
UP: Mac Jones, Christian Barmore, Jakobi Meyers. And the coaches -- both BB and Josh.
Up: Jones, Judon, Meyers (HM to Bolden).
Down: OL (RT was awful too, so let's just keep them as a group), JJ, Slater.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Does anyone think EPA is a worthwhile stat? I know nothing about it, but this article, (which I'm pretty sure is terrible despite being posted on another site by a very good football mind who has either guest written or been interviewed on here), says Mac wasn't very good. I find it hard to take the article seriously when they don't mention how bad our running game and offensive line were. And they don't mention that the interception should be equally shared with whoever's butter fingers it slipped off of.

https://slate.com/culture/2021/10/mac-jones-stats-epa-patriots-buccaneers-collinsworth.html
 

tims4wins

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Brady went 22-43 last night with 6.3 Y/A and led exactly 1 TD drive, which started at midfield. He was sailing throws all over the place despite having time most of the night. He wasn’t bad by any stretch but I thought it was a pretty mediocre game for him. To coop’s point, it looked like late season 2019 Brady to me except with the benefit of a solid OL, 3 really good WRs, and Leonard Fournette.

I don’t agree with the “ready to move on” piece. I certainly wasn’t. But I do agree that Brady wasn’t as sharp as he normally is. Last night kind of reminded me of Q1 Super Bowl Brady, to be honest.

With all that said, the dude is 44 and still has a great arm and that play where he rolled out and found AB on the sidelines was really impressive. My brain simply won’t be able to process when Brady finally does slip for an extended period of time. It’ll be so foreign.
Just as a point of comparison:
Brady’s last 13 regular season games of 2019:
59.4%, 17 TD : 8 INT, 82.0 rating, 6.2 Y/A

So yeah last night was fairly comparable to 2019. Obviously the weather wasn’t great but Mac put up fine numbers.
 

Gash Prex

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Apr 18, 2002
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Does anyone think EPA is a worthwhile stat? I know nothing about it, but this article, (which I'm pretty sure is terrible despite being posted on another site by a very good football mind who has either guest written or been interviewed on here), says Mac wasn't very good. I find it hard to take the article seriously when they don't mention how bad our running game and offensive line were. And they don't mention that the interception should be equally shared with whoever's butter fingers it slipped off of.

https://slate.com/culture/2021/10/mac-jones-stats-epa-patriots-buccaneers-collinsworth.html
no I don’t as the “best metric” - but even that author basically torpedoed his own point and limitations of advanced stats.

Update, Oct. 4, 2021, 6:45 p.m.
This post wasn’t all fair to Jones as initially written, and I’d like to add a note here to that effect. The Patriots’ running game is bad and had little chance of doing anything against the Bucs. And as Andre Weingarten pointed out on Twitter, Jones’ short passes had the effect of replacing that running game and getting the Patriots first downs that teams would usually try to get on the ground. Jones’ effort wasn’t nearly as prolific as his raw yardage and completion figures suggested, but stating that he didn’t really help the Patriots move the ball is unfair, as the Patriots’ 15 first downs on his throws indicated.
“Attempted air yards” is a useless stat in my mind
 

PedroKsBambino

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Apr 17, 2003
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No. As I recall at the time, most supported going for it, as the numbers slightly supported it. Just as the numbers slightly supported going for it last night. Neither instance is a glaring "one way is correct, the other is glaringly wrong" scenario, but neither was it a coin flip. It was probably closer to 55-45% chance of the more favorable outcome if you go for it.

Worth mentioning and asking why. Or I guess we could just close up shop, since he's a genius and all.
Plus, Faulk made it and only a shitty spot created a narrative it wasn't a bold and correct decision.