The Game Goat Thread: Wk. 6 vs Dallas

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, in the Patriots 4 losses the defense has allowed:
17 to MIA (who average 17)
21 to NO (who average 25)
19 to TB (who average 33)
23 (in regulation) to DAL (who average 32).

The offense has scored:
16 vs Mia (who give up 31)
13 vs NO (who give up 18) (and it was 6 net since there was a pick 6)
17 vs TB (who give up 24)
29 vs DAL (who give up 23) (it was 23 net because pick 6).

SO in every loss we have held the opponent to less than their average scoring (except MIA where it was a tie)
In every loss except today, we have scored less than the opponent's average surrendered (and if you use net to take into account defensive TDs allowed today was a tie).

The defense is not the issue, it's an above average scoring D. Our offense is garbage.
 

JMDurron

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Speaking of the OL causing cascading failures across the rest of the roster, is there any reason to think that our lackluster TE performances thus far are similarly impacted? Are they helping out the incompetent OTs and not getting to run enough routes? Are they off the field more to get more “quick throw” passes off in more spread sets out of pass protection desperation?
 

jodyreeddudley78

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The TEs are very good, the OC is not calling plays to target them. The OL is currently in shambles but IMO they have more than enough talent. But they continue to make stupid mistakes and have horrible play calling and it’s fucking killing them.
Coming into today, they have targeted the TE position on a higher % of pass plays than any other team -- except for KC.
 

Cellar-Door

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Speaking of the OL causing cascading failures across the rest of the roster, is there any reason to think that our lackluster TE performances thus far are similarly impacted? Are they helping out the incompetent OTs and not getting to run enough routes? Are they off the field more to get more “quick throw” passes off in more spread sets out of pass protection desperation?
Jonnu Smith has run 15 total routes the last 2 games. He's basically being used as a mediocre 6th OL now to try and protect the tackles from outside rushes.
 

Melrose Diner

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I kinda think it’s not going to end well here for BB. You can’t win in the NFL with barely any talent.
This is a great point. Every team at the top of the NFL totem pole has someone on offense that you’d classify as a game breaker/big play threat on ANY given play, or at the very least someone that you can depend on to say “this guy is getting the ball in this situation, try and stop it”. The Patriots don’t have anything close to that, and it’s clear as day on short yardage downs when they get super vanilla. This organization cannot move forward until there’s a philosophical change in how the roster is built and that starts with the current head coach and coordinators.
 

Ed Hillel

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The defense is not the issue, it's an above average scoring D. Our offense is garbage.
Specifically, it’s the OL. You make that an average unit and this is probably an above average offense and playoff team, somewhere in the 10-11 win range.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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They allowed what, 25 first downs today? And 24 yards on 3rd and 25, with the game on the line? It is most assuredly not an above average defense. An above average defense would have actually made a stop or two. They were awful today.
 

Cellar-Door

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They allowed what, 25 first downs today? And 24 yards on 3rd and 25, with the game on the line? It is most assuredly not an above average defense. An above average defense would have actually made a stop or two. They were awful today.
I mean... they allowed less points, and less NY/A than DAL averages, that's good, on both a scoring and per-play basis they did pretty well compared with the rest of the league, that's the definition of an above average D. That's what happens when you play a great offense and you're on the field all game. Picking 1 play to judge a defense is monumentally stupid and you know that.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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They held Dallas to 23 points in regulation. Is there anyone who wouldn’t have taken that going in?
I thought it would have been an achievement if the Cowboys were held to 35. They gave up 23 before OT, not counting the pick-6.

This D has issues but they played above expectations against TB and now Dallas.

If you're going to knock it for playing in the rain (TB) or getting shredded in OT (D) then give it credit for the things they did right (red zone defense tonight).

Also, since none of us know the extent of responsibility SB has, it seems he's getting targeted disproportionately for being the coach's son or his facial expressions on the sidelines.
 
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ponch73

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That’s not how it works. The D gave up 23 points.
You’re missing the bigger point. That stat is not representative of how they played, particularly down the stretch. And, more importantly, if Mac magically doesn’t throw that pick 6 (and instead the Patriots end up punting), let’s not kid ourselves into believing that the Pats D would have contained the Cowboys offense on the next drive.

Saying the D only gave up 23 points completely misses how poorly they played in the second half. Not counting overtime, they gave up 487 yards. They let Dak throw for 374 yards and over 8 YPA in regulation. With a 3 point lead and 31 seconds left in the game, they allowed Dallas to gain 24 yards on 3rd and 25 to get into field position to tie up the game. They generated little to no pressure on Dak all game, looked slow moving laterally, and missed tackles. And they choked late.
 

mikcou

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You’re missing the bigger point. That stat is not representative of how they played, particularly down the stretch. And, more importantly, if Mac magically doesn’t throw that pick 6 (and instead the Patriots end up punting), let’s not kid ourselves into believing that the Pats D would have contained the Cowboys offense on the next drive.

Saying the D only gave up 23 points completely misses how poorly they played in the second half. Not counting overtime, they gave up 487 yards. They let Dak throw for 374 yards and over 8 YPA in regulation. With a 3 point lead and 31 seconds left in the game, they allowed Dallas to gain 24 yards on 3rd and 25 to get into field position to tie up the game. They generated little to no pressure on Dak all game, looked slow moving laterally, and missed tackles. And they choked late.
You make 8 YPA sound like a lot when Dak came into the game averaging more than that. This Dallas offense is really really good - something that seems to be missing from a lot of posters analysis.

They made plays when they needed to to keep the game close despite Dallas moving the ball easily at times. I think thats pretty much all you can ask a good but non-elite defense to do against an elite offense.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Cowardly decision making and vanilla play calling. The only thing holding this team back right now. The OL is garbage and the defense is inconsistent but a couple of aggressive plays today and we’re talking about squeaking out a win. This team has talent on offense. Mac, Harris, Meyers, Bourne and Henry are all playmakers. Stevenson will get there. They are 100% not being utilized.
 

Silverdude2167

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I am getting tired of waking up and seeing this team has lost by a few points to a good team. It is really not clear to me what this team is going to end up like, they really are a few plays away from 5-1 or 1-5. It would not surprise me at all for them to fix the mistakes and end up something like 11-6 or "become the chargers" as was said previously and end up 6-11.

Now I want to just rant a bit about how fucking insane their schedule has been, the schedule makers did them no favors.
They ended up with a schedule that has them playing their 3 hardest opponents outside of the Bills in the first 6 weeks.
They get Tampa, the Cowboys, and Saints, while the Bills get the Steelers, WFT, and KC.

Somehow the first-place schedule is easier this year than the 3rd place schedule.
Cowboys are better than WFT,
San Diego is at least as good if not better than KC
Cleveland is better than Pitt

This team has potential and has been fucked by the schedule makers. If there next 6 were their first 6, it is not hard to see them sitting at 4-2 instead of 2-4 with positive feelings all around.
/Rant over

Anyways the next 6 games are the key to the season, if they can find a way to go 6-0 or 5-1 then they have a shot at the playoffs, but they have left themselves no margin for error with the two Bills games remaining. Again I would not be shocked to see them enter the first Bills game at 8-4 or 4-8. They should beat the Jets and Falcons, I feel like they can beat the Panthers and Titans and would not be surprised to see them beat the Browns or Chargers.
 

CFB_Rules

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They allowed what, 25 first downs today? And 24 yards on 3rd and 25, with the game on the line? It is most assuredly not an above average defense. An above average defense would have actually made a stop or two. They were awful today.
They’re top 10 in DVOA. This is what a good defense looks like in today’s NFL.
 

SMU_Sox

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BB’s cowardly punting.
Mills worst day as a Patriot.
Hightower in coverage and when he needed to blow up a blocker and make a tackle.
Bentley in coverage.
Turning the ball over again 2 times on offense.

New England is 4th worst in the NFL for giveaways. That’s got to stop. It’s killing them.
 

SMU_Sox

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If you look at their turnover differential it is tied for 23rd in the league at -3. That doesn’t include blocked punts. At -5 they would be tied for 29th. They are tied for 29th worst for giveaways now at -11 in 6 games. Almost 2 giveaways per game. It’s just an atrocious situation.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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The turnovers must stop but NE had sightly bad luck on their side.

Out of the 8 fumbles, they lost 5 of them, 2nd most in the league with Miami (10 fumbles).

In comparison, the Cardinals fumbled a whopping 12 times and lost just 1. Bills fumbled more than the Pats at 10 times but only 2:

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-fumbles-lost-2021-by-team

Still, 8 fumbles is way too many.
 

rodderick

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I am getting tired of waking up and seeing this team has lost by a few points to a good team. It is really not clear to me what this team is going to end up like, they really are a few plays away from 5-1 or 1-5. It would not surprise me at all for them to fix the mistakes and end up something like 11-6 or "become the chargers" as was said previously and end up 6-11.

Now I want to just rant a bit about how fucking insane their schedule has been, the schedule makers did them no favors.
They ended up with a schedule that has them playing their 3 hardest opponents outside of the Bills in the first 6 weeks.
They get Tampa, the Cowboys, and Saints, while the Bills get the Steelers, WFT, and KC.

Somehow the first-place schedule is easier this year than the 3rd place schedule.
Cowboys are better than WFT,
San Diego is at least as good if not better than KC
Cleveland is better than Pitt

This team has potential and has been fucked by the schedule makers. If there next 6 were their first 6, it is not hard to see them sitting at 4-2 instead of 2-4 with positive feelings all around.
/Rant over

Anyways the next 6 games are the key to the season, if they can find a way to go 6-0 or 5-1 then they have a shot at the playoffs, but they have left themselves no margin for error with the two Bills games remaining. Again I would not be shocked to see them enter the first Bills game at 8-4 or 4-8. They should beat the Jets and Falcons, I feel like they can beat the Panthers and Titans and would not be surprised to see them beat the Browns or Chargers.
How could you possibly say a team that plays 5 of its first 7 games at home was screwed by the schedule makers? Two months ago we were looking at this stretch as the soft part of the schedule and hoping for a 5-2 start. The Cowboys are better than we expected, but come on.
 

NortheasternPJ

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How could you possibly say a team that plays 5 of its first 7 games at home was screwed by the schedule makers? Two months ago we were looking at this stretch as the soft part of the schedule and hoping for a 5-2 start. The Cowboys are better than we expected, but come on.
Seriously. They had 5 of the first 7 at home and get to play the Dolphins, Texans and the Jets twice in the first half, three of the worst teams In football. Miami is 1-5 and we all know where the 1 win was. On top of that we have no idea if the Saints are even any good.

The schedule is not made up in terms of who you play based on the formula they use and if we’re complaining about the order of them we’re all losers.
 

Silverdude2167

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How could you possibly say a team that plays 5 of its first 7 games at home was screwed by the schedule makers? Two months ago we were looking at this stretch as the soft part of the schedule and hoping for a 5-2 start. The Cowboys are better than we expected, but come on.
It's a rant, it doesn't have a bunch of logic to it.

There is no conspiracy theory to it, but if they did not have to play 3 of their hardest games early in the season people's outlook on this team would be much different. Even including the Dolphins, the teams they have lost to have a record of 14 - 9, take out the Dolphins and its 13-4. It's not like they are losing to the sisters of the poor here. You play the games on your schedule, but the schedule turned out to be very difficult at the start which sucks for a team that is trying to build something new.

And the 3rd place teams last year are better than the 1st place teams from last year, that is just the nature of the NFL and it screwed the Pats this year.
 
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rodderick

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It's a rant, it doesn't have a bunch of logic to it.

There is no conspiracy theory to it, but if they did not have to play 3 of their hardest games early in the season people's outlook on this team would be much different. Even including the Dolphins, the teams they have lost to have a record of 14 - 9, take out the Dolphins and its 13-4. It's not like they are losing to the sisters of the poor here. You play the games on your schedule, but the schedule turned out to be very difficult at the start which sucks for a team that is trying to build something new.

And the 3rd place teams last year are better than the 1st place teams from last year, that is just the nature of the NFL and it screwed the Pats this year.
The Saints are nowhere near one of their 3 hardest games and they'll have played 3 of their 4 easiest games in their first 7. After that, it's a bunch of teams that are either as good as the Pats or better, with the Jags thrown in. The other two easier games are the Falcons and the Dolphins, both on the road. Don't even think they'll be favored in either unless things change dramatically.
 

jsinger121

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The Saints are nowhere near one of their 3 hardest games and they'll have played 3 of their 4 easiest games in their first 7. After that, it's a bunch of teams that are either as good as the Pats or better, with the Jags thrown in. The other two easier games are the Falcons and the Dolphins, both on the road. Don't even think they'll be favored in either unless things change dramatically.
There are only two games remaining on the schedule where the Patriots will be favored and that’s the Jets next week and the Jaguars. I honestly don’t see this team winning more than 5 games with the crap talent they have across the board.
 
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rodderick

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There are only two games remaining on the schedule where the Patriots will be favored not and that’s the Jets next week and the Jaguars. I honestly don’t see this team winning more than 5 games with the crap talent they have across the board.
Nah, they'll win at least 7 or 8. They'll beat some teams that are a little better than they are, I don't think the game day coaching will be this bad the whole season, they'll turn it around at least a little. I don't think they can hang with Buffalo or with the Chargers on the road (despite last year's blowout), but I wouldn't be surprised to see them beat Cleveland, Tennessee, the Colts or Carolina, for instance. Add two Jets games, a Dolphins game and a Jags game to that mix and they won't pick in the top 10 of the 2022 draft.
 

jsinger121

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Nah, they'll win at least 7 or 8. They'll beat some teams that are a little better than they are, I don't think the game day coaching will be this bad the whole season, they'll turn it around at least a little. I don't think they can hang with Buffalo or with the Chargers on the road (despite last year's blowout), but I wouldn't be surprised to see them beat Cleveland, Tennessee, the Colts or Carolina, for instance. Add two Jets games, a Dolphins game and a Jags game to that mix and they won't pick in the top 10 of the 2022 draft.
I kinda think you are overselling them to win 7-8. While they have BB who will keep them in games they make way too many mistakes for them to win another 5-6 games. They don’t really do anything well on either side of the ball. Let’s also not forget injuries are starting to catch up with them on a team that isn’t very deep to begin with and we only are 6 games in. Basically all I want to see is this team play hard, Mac to look really good and lose a lot of close games to get a top 10 pick.
 

mauf

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What I find the most discouraging is that they’re finding ways to lose. This was a winnable game today and they blew it. Miami was a winnable game and they blew it. Tampa was the same.

I don’t know how on earth they change that. They’re making far too many stupid errors and the coaching has been conservative to the point of self harm.

They gave up 24 on 3rd and 25 to give Dallas the tying FG. I mean what the fuck. That’s unacceptable.
Truly bad teams lose to teams like Dallas and Tampa Bay by multiple scores. Try rooting for Jacksonville sometime. Being in a position to win all these games is evidence that while the Pats are not good, they are also not terrible.

Pats are 1-3 in one-score games. You could argue that they’d be 3-3 with average luck, but teams with rookie QBs lose more than their share of those, just as teams with elite QBs win more than their share. I’d say the Pats’ record fairly reflects who they are as a team right now. I certainly don’t agree with the “they could be 5-1” takes.

I’m skeptical that record in one-score games is a good gauge of coaching performance. BB has been good over the course of his career, but I’d submit that’s mostly TB12. Adam Gase was 20-6 in one-score games during his tenure in Miami, so there’s considerable evidence that luck is a major factor in these outcomes (though one could argue maybe that was evidence that Tannehill was a hidden gem, which of course we now know he was.)

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-why-nfl-head-coaches-shouldnt-be-judged-by-their-record-in-one-score-games/

If I had to point to one play that cost them the game, I’d go with the 24-yard completion to Lamb on 3rd-and-25, which set up the tying FG on 4th down. Not sure if that’s on Mills for the coverage, Steve B for dialing up something too soft, or a bit of both. But that’s where I’d look for a goat.
 

Captaincoop

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Yeah, in the Patriots 4 losses the defense has allowed:
17 to MIA (who average 17)
21 to NO (who average 25)
19 to TB (who average 33)
23 (in regulation) to DAL (who average 32).

The offense has scored:
16 vs Mia (who give up 31)
13 vs NO (who give up 18) (and it was 6 net since there was a pick 6)
17 vs TB (who give up 24)
29 vs DAL (who give up 23) (it was 23 net because pick 6).

SO in every loss we have held the opponent to less than their average scoring (except MIA where it was a tie)
In every loss except today, we have scored less than the opponent's average surrendered (and if you use net to take into account defensive TDs allowed today was a tie).

The defense is not the issue, it's an above average scoring D. Our offense is garbage.
Absolutely agree. This isn't 1985, you don't win by completely shutting the other team down every week. The defense has been good enough to win games, the offense has not.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Truly bad teams lose to teams like Dallas and Tampa Bay by multiple scores. Try rooting for Jacksonville sometime. Being in a position to win all these games is evidence that while the Pats are not good, they are also not terrible.

Pats are 1-3 in one-score games. You could argue that they’d be 3-3 with average luck, but teams with rookie QBs lose more than their share of those, just as teams with elite QBs win more than their share. I’d say the Pats’ record fairly reflects who they are as a team right now. I certainly don’t agree with the “they could be 5-1” takes.

I’m skeptical that record in one-score games is a good gauge of coaching performance. BB has been good over the course of his career, but I’d submit that’s mostly TB12. Adam Gase was 20-6 in one-score games during his tenure in Miami, so there’s considerable evidence that luck is a major factor in these outcomes (though one could argue maybe that was evidence that Tannehill was a hidden gem, which of course we now know he was.)

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/heres-why-nfl-head-coaches-shouldnt-be-judged-by-their-record-in-one-score-games/

If I had to point to one play that cost them the game, I’d go with the 24-yard completion to Lamb on 3rd-and-25, which set up the tying FG on 4th down. Not sure if that’s on Mills for the coverage, Steve B for dialing up something too soft, or a bit of both. But that’s where I’d look for a goat.
When you constantly find ways to lose games you're a bad team. Period, end of story. Close games, blowouts, I really don't care. All games are 1 or 2 plays away. Bad teams don't make them, and the Pats are a bad team.
 

jsinger121

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When you constantly find ways to lose games you're a bad team. Period, end of story. Close games, blowouts, I really don't care. All games are 1 or 2 plays away. Bad teams don't make them, and the Pats are a bad team.
Agreed. Its like the 1993 Patriots over again. Look at that schedule. 5-11 but were in pretty much every game. They won the last 4 games after starting 1-11. Bad team but the seeds were being planted for 94 and 96.
 

rodderick

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When you constantly find ways to lose games you're a bad team. Period, end of story. Close games, blowouts, I really don't care. All games are 1 or 2 plays away. Bad teams don't make them, and the Pats are a bad team.
My issue with the "a couple of plays away from beating Tampa and Dallas" take is that I think you were also a couple of plays away from losing handily to them. I don't think the Pats outplayed either team.
 

joe dokes

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I see Mills name a lot in this thread (which is deserved.) But I dont see McCourty's. Perhaps that's because he was invisible. Which is a problem (in my not-informed-by-watching-video opinion).
 

BaseballJones

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Not the point. With the game on the line, even if they allowed say 15 yards there they win the game. They couldn’t do it.

The defense has consistently found ways to fail all season long. When they’ve needed a stop with the game on the line they’ve failed.
Both you guys are right. Overall the defense did its job. Dallas’ offense is a monster and they found a way, with not that much help from their own offense or special teams, to hold Dallas to 23 points in regulation.

But then it’s also true that they couldn’t get the key stop when they needed it at the end of regulation or in overtime.
 

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I mean... they allowed less points, and less NY/A than DAL averages, that's good, on both a scoring and per-play basis they did pretty well compared with the rest of the league, that's the definition of an above average D. That's what happens when you play a great offense and you're on the field all game. Picking 1 play to judge a defense is monumentally stupid and you know that.
Absolutely not. A good defense has to step up with the balance of the game on the line and all season long they have come up short in such situations. After the fumble in the Miami game, they needed a stop to get the ball back and couldn't get it. They got pushed down the field by both the Saints and Tampa with those games still close, and yesterday just needing to keep Dallas out of FG range they gave up 24 yards. It's inexcusable. It's not one play. It's been the whole season.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Agreed. Its like the 1993 Patriots over again. Look at that schedule. 5-11 but were in pretty much every game. They won the last 4 games after starting 1-11. Bad team but the seeds were being planted for 94 and 96.
I am not as confident that the seeds are being planted for the future. I have very serious issues with the overall philosophy of the team, I think it's looking increasingly outdated. The extreme offensive conservativism, the return to the unwatchable bend but don't break defense, the big slow LBs... that's not how you win in the modern NFL. It's not 2003 any more.
 

Hoya81

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I see Mills name a lot in this thread (which is deserved.) But I dont see McCourty's. Perhaps that's because he was invisible. Which is a problem (in my not-informed-by-watching-video opinion).
From what I see, he’s been playing way off the ball deep on passing plays.
 

jsinger121

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I am not as confident that the seeds are being planted for the future. I have very serious issues with the overall philosophy of the team, I think it's looking increasingly outdated. The extreme offensive conservativism, the return to the unwatchable bend but don't break defense... that's not how you win in the modern NFL. It's not 2003 any more.
I think they have the QB but I think BBs ability to draft real top end talent has been severely lacking. Remember on the podium after super bowl 49 when he said to Edelman and Gronk that it’s a players league and look at us now. You don’t win in this league without players and you don’t win by continuing to play aging veterans who should have been gone already. After this season guys like Hightower, McCourty and KVN should be gone along with Jamie Collins.
 

DJnVa

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I've learned (mostly) to stay out of these threads because I know how we react here.

That said--you gotta go for it in OT. And after Jonnu's catch on first drive where did he go?

Unlike others, I think there's a lot to like with this team, and Mac seems to do a little more each week, but I think the coaches need to trust these guys more.
 

TFisNEXT

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I've learned (mostly) to stay out of these threads because I know how we react here.

That said--you gotta go for it in OT. And after Jonnu's catch on first drive where did he go?

Unlike others, I think there's a lot to like with this team, and Mac seems to do a little more each week, but I think the coaches need to trust these guys more.
Yeah I think there's more legit debate on some of the other decisions BB made, but the OT punt is just baffling. This is a guy who went for it on his own 28 against the Colts because he could see how obvious it was the defense wasn't stopping the opponent. Not sure what he saw yesterday to think it was different. Esp when the opponent needed only a FG and not a touchdown to beat you.
 

BigSoxFan

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I've learned (mostly) to stay out of these threads because I know how we react here.

That said--you gotta go for it in OT. And after Jonnu's catch on first drive where did he go?

Unlike others, I think there's a lot to like with this team, and Mac seems to do a little more each week, but I think the coaches need to trust these guys more.
I think Cellar addressed this somewhere but, basically, Jonnu is not running routes because the OL is such trash, which is a huge waste of $31M guaranteed. The OL has effectively ruined this season almost single-handedly. The defense hasn't been great but it's been decent enough. The poor OL is impacting everything. Mac is getting bombarded. Jonnu has to stay and block. No running lanes opening. Just a shame.
 

mauf

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When you constantly find ways to lose games you're a bad team. Period, end of story. Close games, blowouts, I really don't care. All games are 1 or 2 plays away. Bad teams don't make them, and the Pats are a bad team.
Over the long haul, nobody wins a lot more or a lot less than half of those close games, unless they have an elite QB. The Pats are what mediocrity in the NFL looks like.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
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Dec 12, 2002
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Melrose, MA
Their point differential is now -2 after 6 games. One clear win, one clear loss, one close win, three close losses. They are indeed a mediocre team, albeit one with a bad record.
 

54thMA

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Aug 15, 2012
10,154
Westwood MA
Regardless of all the issues people have pointed out in this thread, they were up 3 with about 2:00 minutes and change left.

If the defense makes a stop, the game is over.

I can't recall if the Cowboys on 3rd and 25 completed a 24 yard pass on that drive or was it 3rd and 12 and Dak scrambled for 11 yards.

Either way, that shit can't happen, yet it does.

Over and over and over.

After the free agent signings and the draft and with Hightower opting back in, I though the front 7 would be much improved over last year.

It's not.

And that's a problem and will continue to be one all year long.

Remember when teams would score late on New England the mantra would be "The left the Patriots/Brady with too much time"; now the team leaving other teams too much time is us.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Lots of negatives in this thread, and rightfully so, but I will say that I was pleasantly surprised by the run defense yesterday. Holding Zeke/Pollard to 27/110 (4.1 YPC) is a pretty solid job given that they're 5.1 and 6.0 YPC, respectively.