The Giannis Sweepstakes

lovegtm

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Note: If you are someone who dislikes speculation, and doesn't want to discuss players being possibly traded before it happens, this is not the thread for you. This is Speculation City.

With the Bucks down 3-0 and on the brink of a flameout even worse than that of the Kyrie Celtics, and Giannis' supermax decision coming up after the season, I wanted to open discussion for what will happen if he turns down that initial supermax offer, as seems fairly likely at this point.

The Bucks will probably try to hire a new coach who "plays stars more than 35 mins/game" and "teaches multiple defenses during the season", but with the exception of Durant in OKC (pre-supermax), teams have been unwilling to let things play out after the guy doesn't commit.

Who are the favorites for him, and what types of packages do you expect on the table?
 

BaseballJones

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If you’re gonna trade for him, you need to give up multiple high draft picks, an established player who is at least “really good” if not a star in his own right, and be able to send back enough salary to make the numbers work.

How many teams could do that?

Boston could send Hayward (meets the $ criteria) and Jaylen (meets the player criteria) plus all three first round picks almost meets the high draft pick criteria), and I wouldn’t know if Mil would turn that down. Jaylen is a budding star on a really good contract and that’s worth a ton. But the picks won’t help much because they’re not high enough. Maybe Mil could turn them into a top 5 pick? Who knows.

But a trade would have to look something like that I would think.
 

lovegtm

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If you’re gonna trade for him, you need to give up multiple high draft picks, an established player who is at least “really good” if not a star in his own right, and be able to send back enough salary to make the numbers work.

How many teams could do that?

Boston could send Hayward (meets the $ criteria) and Jaylen (meets the player criteria) plus all three first round picks almost meets the high draft pick criteria), and I wouldn’t know if Mil would turn that down. Jaylen is a budding star on a really good contract and that’s worth a ton. But the picks won’t help much because they’re not high enough. Maybe Mil could turn them into a top 5 pick? Who knows.

But a trade would have to look something like that I would think.
Jaylen on his new contract would salary-match Giannis, and there probably is a workable deal involving Jaylen+everything not nailed down. I just think the deal would ultimately fall apart when Giannis won't commit to re-signing. Even with the commitment, the Celtics probably are gun-shy.

As for the CA teams: Warriors are absolutely a threat, even if they wouldn't get him at the price their delusional homer fans think. The Lakers and Clippers have no realistic path that I can see, because they have no real tradeable assets basically forever.

I think Philly would absolutely have to consider trading Embiid or Simmons. If I could somehow turn departing Giannis into Simmons, I'd be ecstatic as the Bucks. Embiid I'd have to think about.
 

Sam Ray Not

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The core package from GS...

Edwards, Ball or Wiseman
Minnesota 2021-2022
GS future picks (2022, 2024, 2026?)
Paschall
Draymond or Wiggins

Note: if the Bucks don’t want Draymond’s *or* Wiggins’ contract... Patrick Murray of Forbes recently laid a scenario where the Ws could put together enough salary to match Giannis’ salary without either of them (using the rookie-scale contract of whoever they draft, Milwaukee’s own Kevon Looney, and an expiring “bridge contract” acquired with the Iguodala TPE).
 
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NoXInNixon

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Giannis for Zion? Then New Orleans trades some of the Lakers picks to get another piece.

Is Giannis + Holiday + Lonzo + Whatever you get for the Lakers picks enough to have a chance in the West? Seems so to me.

Zion is a pretty good return for Milwaukee.
 

mauf

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I don’t think we’ll see another supermax. For top-5 players who make much of their money from endorsements*, tying themselves to a single team from their mid-20s to early-30s isn’t necessarily a good economic decision, even leaving aside the potential competitive downsides. And I think the Wall deal has given owners religion on the folly of giving these extensions to players who aren’t at that level. And in Giannis’s case, there’s the added wrinkle of the pandemic; with the NBPA planning for no fans in arenas through 2020-21, signing a long-term deal tied to the value of the 2021-22 cap number is exceptionally risky.

If I’m the Bucks, I stand pat and try to win in 2020-21 with the same team, perhaps with a new coach. No one with a decent roster will have room under a reduced cap in the summer of 2021, and Giannis will likely want a short-term deal so he can hit the market again with 10 years of service. So I think the Bucks have another 2-3 seasons left in their window and won’t be shopping Giannis this fall, even when he turns down the supermax offer (which he definitely will).


*- Giannis might be an exception, as he doesn’t appear to have as many outside sources of income as LBJ, CP3, Harden, et al.
 

InstaFace

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All those who had Sam Ray Not to predict the Warriors, at -10000 odds, collect your paltry winnings.

The Clippers' cupboard is bare, but if they don't win the title this year, I can see them bailing on George if the opportunity to trade him (maybe plus some young cost-controlled talent) for Giannis comes up.
 

Sam Ray Not

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KAT plus this year's #1 overall?
Obviously the Bucks jump at that ... but zero chance imho that the Wolves offer that much for a one-year rental of a guy whose primary motivation for leaving Milwaukee would presumably be that he doesn’t want to play for a non-contender in a cold city in the middle of nowhere.

Given the flight risk, the KAT/DLo friendship, and the fact that KAT’s shooting is as elite as Giannis’ is crappy ... I kinda doubt Minnesota even does that deal straight up, without the #1 pick thrown in.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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All those who had Sam Ray Not to predict the Warriors, at -10000 odds, collect your paltry winnings.

The Clippers' cupboard is bare, but if they don't win the title this year, I can see them bailing on George if the opportunity to trade him (maybe plus some young cost-controlled talent) for Giannis comes up.
Lol, not predicting anything, just laying out what GS has to offer. The article I linked to is suitably skeptical about its likelihood (though it was written before the Milwaukee Meltdown, so may need revising).

I got some of that -10000 action, btw. :)
 

RorschachsMask

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So I’ve never posted anything like this, and it’s second hand info, but I was told by someone very connected to the Warriors that Giannis made it known he’d want to go there.

I don’t know the how, and I don’t think it’s the only place he’d consider, just figured I’d pass it along.
 

BigSoxFan

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So I’ve never posted anything like this, and it’s second hand info, but I was told by someone very connected to the Warriors that Giannis made it known he’d want to go there.

I don’t know the how, and I don’t think it’s the only place he’d consider, just figured I’d pass it along.
It makes a lot of sense. Warriors have established stars who are still young enough to make a run for a few years and they conveniently have a high draft pick to send to Milwaukee. But, obviously, this scenario requires Giannis to start calling the shots and force his way out. Is he really going to do this? I’d be incredibly disappointed if he did but this is the NBA after all. Stars get frustrated with the burden of falling short and Milwaukee really doesn’t have that much around him.
 

benhogan

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agree with Mauf above, Milwaukee tries running it back with some little tweaks.

But love Speculation City (fantastic disclaimer btw, weed out the lecturers)

1. Philly should be calling first thing Sunday night, offer Joel, then Simmons

2. Dallas starts with Porzingins + anything not named Luka + draft assets

3. If Milwaukee is interested in tons of future picks (ie Warriors 5 firsts + Wiggins or Dre), then OKC has a chance since they have picks and SGA to dangle

4. Celtic's offer*? Brown+5 firsts +Theis+anything they get for Hayward... (if GA guaranteed he'd sign w/ Boston)

a future of Giannis/Tatum/Smart/Langford/Granite defense within The Brad Machine = 3 to 4 Championships

*that Celtic offer beats anything GSW can come with but it really comes down to where Giannis wants to play. Also, the Celtics stand pat if they make the NBA Finals this year and win their 3 to 4 Championships with their present core
 
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PedroKsBambino

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The core package from GS...

Edwards, Ball or Wiseman
Minnesota 2021-2022
GS future picks (2022, 2024, 2026?)
Paschall
Draymond or Wiggins

Note: if the Bucks don’t want Draymond’s *or* Wiggins’ contract... Patrick Murray of Forbes recently laid a scenario where the Ws could put together enough salary to match Giannis’ salary without either of them (using the rookie-scale contract of whoever they draft, Milwaukee’s own Kevon Looney l, and an expiring “bridge contract” acquired with the Iguodala TPE).
I don't think this scenario is nuts. Milwaukee is going to need a couple high picks to plan/dream around and this is the best set they are likely to be offered. Warriors can afford to bet on a few years of Curry, Thompson, Giannis, Green and pieces.
 

lovegtm

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I don't think this scenario is nuts. Milwaukee is going to need a couple high picks to plan/dream around and this is the best set they are likely to be offered. Warriors can afford to bet on a few years of Curry, Thompson, Giannis, Green and pieces.
I absolutely think Giannis would like to play with the Dubs, and he can dictate his destination to some degree.

It seems that there is a lot of smoke around Toronto and Miami as well, but they can’t go as all-out with assets.
 

Jimbodandy

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I absolutely think Giannis would like to play with the Dubs, and he can dictate his destination to some degree.

It seems that there is a lot of smoke around Toronto and Miami as well, but they can’t go as all-out with assets.
Miami/Toronto have more players to send back that might be useful. Depends on whether Bucks ownership wants to rebuild or battle for the 7th seed every year. Some teams choose the latter.
 

lovegtm

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Miami/Toronto have more players to send back that might be useful. Depends on whether Bucks ownership wants to rebuild or battle for the 7th seed every year. Some teams choose the latter.
Yeah, if they want to compete, the Siakam+ package beats other options. Toronto probably does that, since they seem to think they have the inside track on Giannis.
 

RedOctober3829

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Freak should either stay in Milwaukee for the Supermax or force his way to Miami. He needs to learn how to win and the Riley Culture is the perfect place for him to do it. Him/Butler/Bam would be so formidable. Toronto is mentioned because of his relationship with Masai Ujiri but do they give him a championship window? No.

From a Celtics perspective, do you really want to blow up what they have now for him?
 

BigSoxFan

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Freak should either stay in Milwaukee for the Supermax or force his way to Miami. He needs to learn how to win and the Riley Culture is the perfect place for him to do it. Him/Butler/Bam would be so formidable. Toronto is mentioned because of his relationship with Masai Ujiri but do they give him a championship window? No.

From a Celtics perspective, do you really want to blow up what they have now for him?
...yes? He’s an MVP smack dab in his prime. You 100% make that trade if it can be done without Tatum.
 

benhogan

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Freak should either stay in Milwaukee for the Supermax or force his way to Miami. He needs to learn how to win and the Riley Culture is the perfect place for him to do it. Him/Butler/Bam would be so formidable. Toronto is mentioned because of his relationship with Masai Ujiri but do they give him a championship window? No.

From a Celtics perspective, do you really want to blow up what they have now for him?
Riley would be very underrated if he can land Giannis and keep Bam.

BUT I suspect he would have to be one of the players going to Milwaukee + Herro + Duncan + draft picks + salary match (AI works)

Brown+++ picks is a no brainer from the Celtics perspective
 

benhogan

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An MVP who you can’t give the ball to at the end of the game to make a shot. If the opposing defense builds a wall at the top of the key what can he do? He’s a bad shooter.
defense matters a lot, its 50% of the game

in fact, Giannis is so insanely good at defense he put Brook Lopez in the conversation as one of the best defensive 5s in the NBA (which is absurd)
 
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nighthob

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An MVP who you can’t give the ball to at the end of the game to make a shot. If the opposing defense builds a wall at the top of the key what can he do?
Pass it to whichever of JayTay, Kemba, Smart, or Romeo that's wide open as a result of the wall.
 

RedOctober3829

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defense matters a lot, its 50% of the game

in fact, Giannis is so insanely good at defense he put Brook Lopez in the conversation as one of the best defensive 5s in the NBA (which is absurd)
Yes he’s insane defensively. I’m just not wanting to break this team up. The allure of teaming Smart and Giannis up on the defensive end is pretty damn tempting though!
 

BigSoxFan

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An MVP who you can’t give the ball to at the end of the game to make a shot. If the opposing defense builds a wall at the top of the key what can he do? He’s a bad shooter.
When you have Tatum and Kemba, that ain’t a problem though.
 

BigSoxFan

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True. I just think we haven’t seen the peak of this group yet and seeing JB/JT grow together would be so enjoyable. However, it would also not be ideal to see him go to Toronto or Miami either.
Yeah, I view this similarly to the Kawhi stuff. If he’s actually made available, I only give up Jaylen+ if you get a LT commitment. If you can’t get that, it’s just not worth it to sacrifice a decade of Jaylen’s career plus other assets.

I love Jaylen but imagine having Giannis and Tatum with shooters around them...
 

InstaFace

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Can we get it done with Hayward for salary / headline and none of the other big 6? A million picks, TimeLord, any of the rookies or sophomores that they like, etc. The point with Hayward is that he'd be an expiring, so it frees them up from a budget perspective.
 

benhogan

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Yes he’s insane defensively. I’m just not wanting to break this team up. The allure of teaming Smart and Giannis up on the defensive end is pretty damn tempting though!
Danny can sit tight and wait for the "right" trade. He really doesn't have to reach/rock the boat. So he'll probably do nothing (other than maybe something w/ Hayward?)

The team is set up for 60-win seasons and title contention for the next half dozen seasons. Highly doubt will see any wild-eyed Celtic/Giannis trades occur. Just fun to speculate until tip-off
 

BigSoxFan

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Can we get it done with Hayward for salary / headline and none of the other big 6? A million picks, TimeLord, any of the rookies or sophomores that they like, etc. The point with Hayward is that he'd be an expiring, so it frees them up from a budget perspective.
Not likely because you’d be competing with the #2 pick. TL, Langford, and #14 are great secondary pieces for a deal but they’re not headliners. Jaylen would have to go and would represent a really good return given what we saw Kawhi go for.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yeah, Jaylen would have to be included to be the Dubs’ best offer. Next year’s draft is very highly regarded. With all caveats about the difference a year can make, I’ve heard scouts says that 6-7 guys next year would be #1 overall this year. The Warriors’ Minny pick is very valuable. As lovegtm said earlier, not a move I can see Ainge making without rock solid assurance that Giannis would sign.
 
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lovegtm

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Not likely because you’d be competing with the #2 pick. TL, Langford, and #14 are great secondary pieces for a deal but they’re not headliners. Jaylen would have to go and would represent a really good return given what we saw Kawhi go for.
Kawhi isn’t representative for a variety of reasons that have been pretty well hashed out. That was a bad deal the day it was done, and nothing else has been comparable. Tobias Harris as an expiring got a better haul.

The Pelicans set the standard for what teams can get if they have to deal a star, and the subsequent big trades have been very pricey.

As far as Jaylen goes: no way the Celtics can get Giannis without him. I would do it if Giannis committed to re-signing. Tatum+Giannis starts you every season as a/the title favorite for 5+ years.
 

BigSoxFan

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Kawhi isn’t representative for a variety of reasons that have been pretty well hashed out. That was a bad deal the day it was done, and nothing else has been comparable. Tobias Harris as an expiring got a better haul.

The Pelicans set the standard for what teams can get if they have to deal a star, and the subsequent big trades have been very pricey.

As far as Jaylen goes: no way the Celtics can get Giannis without him. I would do it if Giannis committed to re-signing. Tatum+Giannis starts you every season as a/the title favorite for 5+ years.
Yes, Kawhi trade return is obviously on the low end. He also had injury/behavior concerns that suppressed his value a little bit when compared to guys like AD, PG13, etc.

The Celtics’ problem in this scenario is that while Jaylen+ likely represents greater value than the #2 pick+, we’re not going to jettison him for a 1 year commitment whereas GS would probably trade #2 for a shot at convincing the Freak to stay long term.

I think the Kawhi analogy is better comp with respect to Danny’s attitude vs. the actual return because I do think it would be similar. Ainge only breaks up this core for a transcendent talent. AD and Giannis both meet that description.

I’m confident that Ainge would at least investigate.
 

bankshot1

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I usually don't play this game, but is GF good enough to push a really shitty team out of deep lottery position, who is desperate and has been desperate for decades and has both picks and maybe a couple of pieces to do something that will lock them into mediocrity for another decade?

With KI and Durant about to take over NYC next year, pandemic pending

This screams Dolan Desperation

GF and his brother as a bro package and GF is sold as the new King of Gotham and MSG as his kingdom

For Randle, Knox, Robinson (passes the trade machine) plus Knicks unprotected 1s (2) in '21 and '23 and maybe 2 of the 1s ('21 and '23) they got from Dallas for KP.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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These trade ideas are fun but at least account for the fact that any team trading a Giannis needs some form of cosmetically justifiable return. I would also add that trading to non-contenders is unlikely for a host of reasons and inter division and conference also seems hard.

In short, the number of teams that can satisfy those criteria - assuming they are the right parameters - is fairly small. If he goes on the market, Golden State has a huge advantage, especially with Giannis' reported interest in the Warriors. The question is, can they meet the Bucks market.

I actually think the biggest issue with any trade is the deal itself and not the destination. He may be one of the hardest superstarplayers to trade for given his skill set. If you don't have the right fit and coaching for him, all you are doing is assuming the Bucks issues. Milwaukee isn't stupid either. They can hold on to him, perhaps for longer per mauf but if they trade him, it will almost certainly be one where his acquiring organization is forced to mortgage the future hard.
 

nighthob

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I usually don't play this game, but is GF good enough to push a really shitty team out of deep lottery position, who is desperate and has been desperate for decades and has both picks and maybe a couple of pieces to do something that will lock them into mediocrity for another decade? ...

For Randle, Knox, Robinson (passes the trade machine) plus Knicks unprotected 1s (2) in '21 and '23 and maybe 2 of the 1s ('21 and '23) they got from Dallas for KP.

The Knicks are definitely a possibility. But Milwaukee would need more picks as Knox and Robinson aren't all that good (Robinson's fine as a rim running C, but you can't build around a guy like that, and you're not likely to pay them when the time comes). As '21 and '22 are the double drafts, the Bucks would require picks both years to make it worth their while.
 

bankshot1

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The Knicks are definitely a possibility. But Milwaukee would need more picks as Knox and Robinson aren't all that good (Robinson's fine as a rim running C, but you can't build around a guy like that, and you're not likely to pay them when the time comes). As '21 and '22 are the double drafts, the Bucks would require picks both years to make it worth their while.
I got 4 1s, 3 unprotected, and 2 of those with a decent chance to be lotteries going to the Bucks. This could be the Bucks equivalent of the Ainge's KG-Pierce Thank you for saving me 10 years of rebuilding Nets trade. The players going back to the Bucks are probably the best of slim pickings, but satisfy the trade requirements.
 

ehaz

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An MVP who you can’t give the ball to at the end of the game to make a shot. If the opposing defense builds a wall at the top of the key what can he do? He’s a bad shooter.
idk, pass the ball to Tatum or Kemba?
 

nighthob

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I got 4 1s, 3 unprotected, and 2 of those with a decent chance to be lotteries going to the Bucks. This could be the Bucks equivalent of the Ainge's KG-Pierce Thank you for saving me 10 years of rebuilding Nets trade. The players going back to the Bucks are probably the best of slim pickings, but satisfy the trade requirements.
Yes, but if Giannis stays the picks will be low first round lottery tickets with a .0001% chance of ever turning into anything more than roleplayer level talent. The two exceptions are going to be the double drafts of '21 and '22. So New York's picks those years are going to be important to the Bucks, because those are the years that low firsts have better odds of producing starter-level talent.

The simple fact is that otherwise Siakam for Giannis is seventeen times better a deal. The Warriors also have a much better package to (potentially) offer if they can find a team under the cap for fiscal '22 to take Wiggins deal for a mere future Golden State first.

EDIT: I will say, though, that RJ Barrett can be a great equalizer for the Knicks. If they were to put him in the deal instead of Randle the trade would look considerably better.
 

snowmanny

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I would like to understand why Giannis would force his way to Miami instead of Dallas. Culture climate market blah blah blah the most important factor by far is the other guy.
 

bankshot1

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Yes, but if Giannis stays the picks will be low first round lottery tickets with a .0001% chance of ever turning into anything more than roleplayer level talent. The two exceptions are going to be the double drafts of '21 and '22. So New York's picks those years are going to be important to the Bucks, because those are the years that low firsts have better odds of producing starter-level talent.

The simple fact is that otherwise Siakam for Giannis is seventeen times better a deal. The Warriors also have a much better package to (potentially) offer if they can find a team under the cap for fiscal '22 to take Wiggins deal for a mere future Golden State first.

EDIT: I will say, though, that RJ Barrett can be a great equalizer for the Knicks. If they were to put him in the deal instead of Randle the trade would look considerably better.
IMO just about any player(s) coming back to Milw. for Giannis will be a fraction of his value. IMO the real currency of value are the multiple future 1s in the 20-23 time period. If you could package Siakim plus a few lottery 1s, sure, but I don't see that as realistic or possible, as the Raptors don't have the picks to trade and if GA joins them, they'll be picking late in the draft. It looks like the Knicks are one of the few teams with the need, the currency (picks and likely lottery picks) and a possible preferred destination for Giannis. And Barrett works for the trade machine in that trade.
 

nighthob

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Multiple picks in the 20s won’t compare, value wise, to the other offers they’re going to get. But like I said, Barrett’s a legitimate potential #1 scorer, and that goes a long way to making up for the (likely) mediocre picks.
 

bankshot1

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Multiple picks in the 20s won’t compare, value wise, to the other offers they’re going to get.
IMO you take those young players off the Knicks and GA is not enough to make them a good team. There's a lot of rebuilding to do. That was the premise in my original trade scenario that GA on the Knicks would still leave them a shitty team, giving up at least 2 lottery 1s (of 4 1s given up).
 

snowmanny

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IMO you take those young players off the Knicks and GA is not enough to make them a good team. There's a lot of rebuilding to do. That was the premise in my original trade scenario that GA on the Knicks would still leave them a shitty team, giving up at least 2 lottery 1s (of 4 1s given up).
Why would he stay with the Knicks more than a year instead of just staying in Milwaukee?