The JD Opt-Out: Just Do-it or Just Don't?

E5 Yaz

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Figured we'd be discussing this soon enough, so why not a thread?

MLBTR has some notes from a Big Time Baseball podcast interview with Boras, where he sets the stage for the Martinez decision. Sure sounds as though the only two options are a Red Sox extension/renegotiation or free agency. Playing under the current contract doesn't appear likely.

***

Boras was not similarly restrained when the hosts raised the topic of Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, another prominent opt-out candidate. Though he didn’t specifically address the opt-out decision (three years, $62.5MM in his case), Boras left little doubt that he has begun compiling talking points on the slugger.

Martinez, per Boras, is “one of the top 5 offensive players in the game … and that is the vision of J.D. Martinez that I believe all teams have.” But the premium hitter is not a bat-only player, says his agent. He’s in the lineup every day and “plays forty or fifty games in the outfield,” says Boras. “I don’t think teams would in any way view J.D. Martinez as a DH,” adds the always-entertaining player rep, who also emphasized Martinez’s leadership and provision of hitting information and “intensity” to teammates.

***

If Sox ownership is truly interested in shedding salary (and signing Mookie), can they afford to go through this process with JD?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wouldn't teams prefer it if he DIDN'T want to play 40-50 games in the OF? It also rules out any NL team but that was obvious.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Given the Sox’ current financial situation and Mookie’s upcoming free agency, they may have to bite the bullet and let JD walk unless he’s willing to agree to something pretty team friendly, which it doesn’t sound like he would be.

Obviously that would be a significant loss for the offense but despite Boras’s protestations it’s going to be easier to at least partially make back JD’s lost production than a true 5-tool talent like Mookie.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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I say let him walk if he opts out. Will we miss his bat, yes most likely, but that money would come in handy in other areas (i.e. the bullpen, possible Mookie extension...) Just extend a qualifying offer and thank him for the ring
 

jon abbey

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Honestly this feels to me like a bluff by Boras, especially given the lack of demand for DHs on the market plus Castellanos also being out there, another Boras client who is best off at DH. JDM had -6 DRS in just 220 innings in the OF this year, it's true that he's not just a DH but he would be a more helpful player if he was (as bosox79 also said while I was typing). I'll be very surprised if he ends up opting out.
 

JBJ_HOF

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The Red Sox are going to amend JD's contract from 3 years, 62.5 Million to something like 3 years, 72 million. Then they are going to trade Betts.
 

Murderer's Crow

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This sounds like the second time Boras will overplay his hand against the Red Sox with JDM. Except this time, he has to opt-out and take a gamble to prove he isn't bluffing.
 

AB in DC

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If Sox ownership is truly interested in shedding salary (and signing Mookie), can they afford to go through this process with JD?
The Red Sox are going to amend JD's contract from 3 years, 62.5 Million to something like 3 years, 72 million. Then they are going to trade Betts.
I'm gonna go against the grain here and say that either Mookie and JD will both be on the 2020 Sox, or neither will.

If JD opts out, trading Mookie creates an opportunity for the FO to shed salary, get back under the luxury tax threshold, and begin the rebuild.

If JD doesn't opt out, the team still has all the pieces together to make another World Series run, and trading Mookie works against that without giving enough payroll relief to reset the luxury tax.
 

santadevil

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I'm thinking JD stays, while a lot of us hope he opts out and signs elsewhere to help alleviate the payroll concerns and give the team a chance at signing Mookie long-term.

I say let him walk if he opts out. Will we miss his bat, yes most likely, but that money would come in handy in other areas (i.e. the bullpen, possible Mookie extension...) Just extend a qualifying offer and thank him for the ring
Does he get a qualifying offer if he opts out? I don't know the rules on this
 

Manramsclan

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Scott Boras said:
“I don’t think teams would in any way view J.D. Martinez as a DH.
Boras is really reaching with this one. This is such a horrendous bluff. JD terrible in the field, and he tends to miss time with back issues. These issues will only get more pronounced as he ages.

JD Martinez as a full time DH is not only good for whatever team he is on, but is also good for JD Martinez!

Call this bluff. Boras continues to operate as if this is the early 2000's. Last year's free agency period was very difficult for veteran players. 2 years ago, JD Martinez, a premium offensive talent, stayed unsigned until late February almost two weeks after pitchers and catchers. Teams are going to be knocking down his door now? When he is two years older and a bigger injury/decline risk? Please.
 

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Boras doesn't have a Jedi mind trick strong enough to convince teams that JD can be anything near a F/T OFer. 40 games is wince-inducing enough. I also doubt most teams see him as a top 5 offensive performer over the next 3-4 years. (Top 10-15? Ok. But his #s are down this year from last, and he's not adding speed to his repertoire.)

So what's his potential market? Seems likely to me to be limited to AL teams. Which teams? Of the currently good teams, the MFYs aren't adding another RH DH-only type for $25M+/year. Houston has other SP fish to fry and young players to extend. Cleveland, Oakland, Minnesota, Tampa? At that price? No way.

Chicago's a possibility. They've presumably got money and a desire to take the next step. Who else? LAAA wouldn't seem likely to want to add the next Albert Pujols to their line-up. Texas already has too many OF/DH players. Seattle? Maybe. Any of the other tanking teams likely?

Point is, JDM and Boras can go fishing, but the lake is small and not particularly well stocked. And he has to know that, if he opts out, the Sox could easily decide to take JDM's money and redistribute it to extensions for Mookie and others. Pretty risky strategy in this case...
 

Murderer's Crow

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You know what's missing from this that usually isn't? An estimate from what Boras thinks JD should earn. Previous that was 10/250 and he wound up with 5/125. I think 5/125 is probably about right again.
 

E5 Yaz

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You know what's missing from this that usually isn't? An estimate from what Boras thinks JD should earn. Previous that was 10/250 and he wound up with 5/125. I think 5/125 is probably about right again.
True, but I suppose that might be in the podcast interview. As to how much is realistic, I'm guessing that it's about years and not average salary at this point. Going to ask for 6-7 years and settle on 4
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Does he get a qualifying offer if he opts out? I don't know the rules on this
The first deadline in the off-season will be his opt-out. If he does, he's a free agent same as Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Holt, etc. No reason he would be ineligible for a QO as far as I can tell. The only players ineligible for a QO are ones who were acquired mid-season...so the only ineligible Sox at this point are Chacin and Owings, not that either are in anyway deserving of one.

Frankly, I think it would be foolish not to put the QO on him if he opts out.
 

BoSox Rule

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I think he’s more likely to opt out after next year when his salary dips below $20m
 

santadevil

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The first deadline in the off-season will be his opt-out. If he does, he's a free agent same as Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Holt, etc. No reason he would be ineligible for a QO as far as I can tell. The only players ineligible for a QO are ones who were acquired mid-season...so the only ineligible Sox at this point are Chacin and Owings, not that either are in anyway deserving of one.

Frankly, I think it would be foolish not to put the QO on him if he opts out.
Thanks for the clarification

I think he’s more likely to opt out after next year when his salary dips below $20m
But he'll also be a year older (33) and if his production drops further next year, he will likely be done in the MLB after his contract expires in 2022
I think this year is his true cutoff year for the opt out for himself
 

The Gray Eagle

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But he'll also be a year older (33) and if his production drops further next year, he will likely be done in the MLB after his contract expires in 2022
I think this year is his true cutoff year for the opt out for himself
All the more reason for the Red Sox to hold firm and not renegotiate that contract. They should tell Boras that JD can either play under his current contract or opt out, that they're not going to be giving him any more money or years.
 

chrisfont9

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Boras doesn't have a Jedi mind trick strong enough to convince teams that JD can be anything near a F/T OFer. 40 games is wince-inducing enough. I also doubt most teams see him as a top 5 offensive performer over the next 3-4 years. (Top 10-15? Ok. But his #s are down this year from last, and he's not adding speed to his repertoire.)

So what's his potential market? Seems likely to me to be limited to AL teams. Which teams? Of the currently good teams, the MFYs aren't adding another RH DH-only type for $25M+/year. Houston has other SP fish to fry and young players to extend. Cleveland, Oakland, Minnesota, Tampa? At that price? No way.

Chicago's a possibility. They've presumably got money and a desire to take the next step. Who else? LAAA wouldn't seem likely to want to add the next Albert Pujols to their line-up. Texas already has too many OF/DH players. Seattle? Maybe. Any of the other tanking teams likely?

Point is, JDM and Boras can go fishing, but the lake is small and not particularly well stocked. And he has to know that, if he opts out, the Sox could easily decide to take JDM's money and redistribute it to extensions for Mookie and others. Pretty risky strategy in this case...
The Mariners are a plausible option. They are committed to a ludicrously low $44m (+ all the arbs) in 2020 and the fanbase here won't take too kindly to a sneakily-well-resourced franchise cheaping out on them completely. They should be shopping for SP first, but everybody loved having Nelson Cruz around, so another semi-expensive DH would probably go over OK if he's a good bet to hit, as JD is.
 

jon abbey

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The Mariners are a plausible option. They are committed to a ludicrously low $44m (+ all the arbs) in 2020 and the fanbase here won't take too kindly to a sneakily-well-resourced franchise cheaping out on them completely. They should be shopping for SP first, but everybody loved having Nelson Cruz around, so another semi-expensive DH would probably go over OK if he's a good bet to hit, as JD is.
They could have just kept Encarnacion then, he has a $20M option for next season. You really think SEA is going to pay a DH big money for 3-4 years? I would be stunned.
 

chrisfont9

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Why? Do you believe that if JD opts out that he will return on less money?
I do. Sorry, not a very elegant comment on my part, but his age plus his limited, replaceable value means smart teams will know better than to overpay here. If Boras wants to argue that the market was reset last winter by Machado and Harper, well, that's the market for absurdly young mega-stars hitting the market, not for 33-y-o DHs.
 

chrisfont9

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They could have just kept Encarnacion then, he has a $20M option for next season. You really think SEA is going to pay a DH big money for 3-4 years? I would be stunned.
Four years' age difference, JD more consistent, and the Mariners just got done clearing the books. I don't think that commits them to clearing the books every year. This isn't KC, they have to do something for the fans after two horrendous years.
 

jon abbey

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Four years' age difference, JD more consistent, and the Mariners just got done clearing the books. I don't think that commits them to clearing the books every year. This isn't KC, they have to do something for the fans after two horrendous years.
OK, I guess we'll see. They did get a talented young pitcher for Encarnacion also, Juan Then, still 19 and in high A by the end of the season.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=672730#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL
 

Muppet

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I do. Sorry, not a very elegant comment on my part, but his age plus his limited, replaceable value means smart teams will know better than to overpay here. If Boras wants to argue that the market was reset last winter by Machado and Harper, well, that's the market for absurdly young mega-stars hitting the market, not for 33-y-o DHs.
I agree that this would be an absolute best case scenario but my guess would be that JD might be a bit more sceptical about his options coming off his last go at Free Agency.
 

mauf

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There are 31 qualifiers with an OPS of 900 or better this season, compared to 16 in 2016 and 23 in 2017. So even as JDM has performed well, players like him are becoming less scarce.

Most players want to max out their guaranteed money, so I think JDM will opt out and sign a 5-year deal for considerably more than the $62 million or so he has left on his current deal, but the AAV on the new deal probably won’t match the $22mm on his current deal.
 

sean1562

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If he opts out, let him walk. I think we probably got the best season of his career out of him last year and I am perfectly happy with not paying a DH 20 mil plus for the next three years. This team's problem is not their offense. We need pitching help desperately
 

LesterFan

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I don't think he opts out. His market will once again be limited, probably to only AL teams, and there will be a loss of draft pick for the signing team. And unlike other players who have opted out and re-signed for more money, there's a very real possibility the Red Sox will say thanks and move on, so he loses another potential suitor. While he was still a very good hitter this season (138 wRC+), that's significantly lower than the 169 wRC+ he posted in 2017-2018. Still good, but not elite. Can he really do much better than the 3/62 remaining? I don't think he takes the risk to find out. Maybe someone offers a 4th year for slightly more money but I can't see anyone going beyond that.

If he opts out and it makes the Sox more likely to sign Mookie, I'm all for it.
 

nattysez

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He doesn't have a no-trade clause, does he? I think he's gone no matter what.

While the opt-outs limit his trade value, if the Sox decide to trade Mookie, I assume they'll trade JDM as well to clear as much room as they can (though they could in theory keep him until the deadline to maximize his trade value). And if they extend Mookie, they'll trade him to open up cap room.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He doesn't have a no-trade clause, does he? I think he's gone no matter what.

While the opt-outs limit his trade value, if the Sox decide to trade Mookie, I assume they'll trade JDM as well to clear as much room as they can (though they could in theory keep him until the deadline to maximize his trade value). And if they extend Mookie, they'll trade him to open up cap room.
Martinez has a limited no-trade clause with a list of three teams. If he doesn't opt-out, I don't see where there's much of a trade market for him. Yes, he's a great hitter, but if Boras analyzes the market and suggests to his client that it's in his best interest to stay, I can't imagine that means there's a team out there willing to give up prospects/players of value to take on his current deal. And that's without considering his second opt-out next winter, which likely knocks down his potential return more.

It's not as though he's a troublemaker worth paying to be rid of. If it requires eating a bunch of salary to trade him, that would be counter-productive considering he's likely to be worth a good chunk of his salary next year (as he has been the last two years). Better to pay him full salary to get that production than pay a chunk of it (half?) and get nothing.
 

JimD

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I think the Sox should do nothing - tell him and Boras that the remaining contract represents fair value and they'd love to have him in Boston, but if he wants to opt out and test the market he's certainly entitled to do that. I hope he's still here for at least one more season and the Sox can make one more run in '20 after the new management team retools the pitching in some fashion, but I don't see the need to risk overpaying for his decline by overreacting with a foolish extension.
 

Van Everyman

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I think JDM is the guy you let go of if you really need to shed salary. He's an incredible hitter and no he's not replaceable. But there's zero reason the team should be holding on to guys like him at the potential expense of players like Betts and Devers. And you absolutely don't tie up *more* money and *more* years in a guy like him.

So I think the team's position, as @JimD says, is clear. As suggested above, I think the bigger question is whether JDM rolls the dice to opt out or not. He may not after having been somewhat burned by the market before.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I think JDM is the guy you let go of if you really need to shed salary. He's an incredible hitter and no he's not replaceable. But there's zero reason the team should be holding on to guys like him at the potential expense of players like Betts and Devers. And you absolutely don't tie up *more* money and *more* years in a guy like him.

So I think the team's position, as @JimD says, is clear. As suggested above, I think the bigger question is whether JDM rolls the dice to opt out or not. He may not after having been somewhat burned by the market before.
Thirded. If he stays, enjoy the great offense at a more-than-fair price. If he opts out, say "thanks for all the fish" and enjoy the increased payroll flexibility. The Sox are really in a no-lose situation here, and I don't think they have any reason to try to pre-empt the situation by offering JDM a raise to stay. (Which seems like exactly the kind of move DD would have made.) It will be a little interesting to see how the Sox handle DH if JDM does go, but I think it's somewhat axiomatic that if you're going to have a question-mark position, DH is the one you want.
 

bosockboy

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Thirded. If he stays, enjoy the great offense at a more-than-fair price. If he opts out, say "thanks for all the fish" and enjoy the increased payroll flexibility. The Sox are really in a no-lose situation here, and I don't think they have any reason to try to pre-empt the situation by offering JDM a raise to stay. (Which seems like exactly the kind of move DD would have made.) It will be a little interesting to see how the Sox handle DH if JDM does go, but I think it's somewhat axiomatic that if you're going to have a question-mark position, DH is the one you want.
Especially when they have the flexibility to shuffle Devers in and out of DH to limit his defensive liabilities.
 

InsideTheParker

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Especially when they have the flexibility to shuffle Devers in and out of DH to limit his defensive liabilities.
I like using the DH to "rest" players, and therefore like the idea of not having a designated DH, but if they want to do that, that's another reason not to let the much cheaper BROCKHOLT go, as he can rotate into various positions for a day or two to give them that rest.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I think JDM is the guy you let go of if you really need to shed salary. He's an incredible hitter and no he's not replaceable. But there's zero reason the team should be holding on to guys like him at the potential expense of players like Betts and Devers. And you absolutely don't tie up *more* money and *more* years in a guy like him.

So I think the team's position, as @JimD says, is clear. As suggested above, I think the bigger question is whether JDM rolls the dice to opt out or not. He may not after having been somewhat burned by the market before.
Agreed. I love having JDM on the team, but he's expensive as a DH (and a liability as an OF). If he opts out, so be it. The Twins got (surprisingly, but still) the same production this year from Nelson Cruz, for half the annual price and a shorter overall commitment. We need depth. We can find helpful bats. We can't find extra CBT space.
 

67YAZ

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It's going to be a buyer's market this winter for free agent DHs. Jose Abreu is a true DH, but Josh Donaldson and Nick Castellanos should move in that direction given their age (Donaldson) and defensive...what's the opposite of prowess (Castellanos)? David Freese and Todd Frazier could be a short-term, budget friendly options, while Encarnacion can be bought out ($5m against $20m salary). I think it will be hard for JD to find a better contract than the one he has right now.
 

sean1562

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eh hasnt Donaldson always been a pretty good defensive 3b? a lot of 3b have been able to play later on in their careers. I dont think he needs to restrict himself to a DH role.
 

67YAZ

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eh hasnt Donaldson always been a pretty good defensive 3b? a lot of 3b have been able to play later on in their careers. I dont think he needs to restrict himself to a DH role.
In 2017 he missed 49 games; in 2018 it was 110. He has had reoccurring calf problems in both legs. It’s awesome that he’s bounced back this season, but I’d be very careful with him from ages 34 on.
 

RobertS975

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Boros' advice managed to screw Varitek out of millions, and this may happen again to JD. Sometimes he is a magician, but certainly has his flubs as well.
 

Average Reds

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If it was a team option, would they take it?
An interesting question.

The way the contract is structured, the option we are discussing is for one year. (Because he has another option after next season.) And the Sox would unquestionably do that.

If you are asking whether they would accept the option for another three years, it’s a closer call, but still yes.
 

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It seems a foregone conclusion Mookie will expect Trout level duration and AAV. It would also seem for RS to keep him and get sufficient pitching help they would have to move at least Martinez' money off the books. I wonder if RS even have the stomach for something like a 12/$420 kind of deal. Perish the thought etc. but it seems the chances of Mookie staying in Boston are no where near 100%, maybe not even 50%. Somebody out there will offer him Trout money if RS don't. And there is a much higher than zero probability they won't.
 

santadevil

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It seems a foregone conclusion Mookie will expect Trout level duration and AAV. It would also seem for RS to keep him and get sufficient pitching help they would have to move at least Martinez' money off the books. I wonder if RS even have the stomach for something like a 12/$420 kind of deal. Perish the thought etc. but it seems the chances of Mookie staying in Boston are no where near 100%, maybe not even 50%. Somebody out there will offer him Trout money if RS don't. And there is a much higher than zero probability they won't.
I don't think this is the case...Trout is currently on the GOAT trajectory.
I love Mookie and he is very, very good, but he's not Trout

I think Mookie will end up being closer to an 8 year/$300M contract, for $37.5 per. So I guess he'll win in AAV, but not overall dollars and length
 

BJBossman

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I agree, provided the "get under all the cap thresholds " talk is malarkey
More balderdash than malarkey
If either is the case, then why not go all in? Not like the farm is going to turn around overnight without some major trades. I get the Dodgers are probably the model in terms of farm system and competing (we'll see how the astros farm holds up drafting late in round 1 so often).

Considering the absolute dearth of SP depth in this system, trading for a SP would be a top priority.

And getting a buy low guy like Gennett could be really interesting.

A big question for this team and how it approaches the winter is going to be how they plan to use Chavis. For example: If it's 2B or LF, Jose Abreu could be an option
 

keninten

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Too bad they can`t put him at 1B. He`s never played there in the majors. Then Chavis at 2b. I`d like to see the DH rotate to give starters rest and keep everyone on the bench fresh.