The Legend of Todd Walker
- Thread starter Buster Olney the Lonely
- Start date
Showed a game in 2003 in a rainstorm, then a bolt of lightning hit and scared Nomar and Walker in the field
A spring 2003 flashback to when Nomar and Walker were playing the infield, converging on a pop fly in the middle of a heavy downpour. Right after the catch, an enormous thunderclap (presumably with accompanying lightning bolt) flashed right overhead.
I'd be happy if he replaced Remy full time. Although getting Eck now and then (can he replace O'Brien?) is always appreciated
If Walker would just stop harping on "walking the lead-off batter."
Letting the first batter of the inning get on base in any manner is not a great idea but considering that in 2015-16, the lead-off batter walked 6.82% of the time while he reached by a single 15.27% of the time, I'd say that more runs probably score from the latter event.
Edit: Actually, a Bill James study says they score at the same rate.
Letting the first batter of the inning get on base in any manner is not a great idea but considering that in 2015-16, the lead-off batter walked 6.82% of the time while he reached by a single 15.27% of the time, I'd say that more runs probably score from the latter event.
Edit: Actually, a Bill James study says they score at the same rate.
At what point are those sample sizes big enough that .2% wouldn't just be random noise? Interesting a walk is more likely to score a run than a single. If it isn't just noise, I wonder the reason. Only thing I can come up with is the other hitters get to see at least 4 pitches.
My thought is that a lead off walk might be more indicative of a pitcher about to be in trouble than a single....but yeah, there's probably no need to overthink 0.2% difference in probabilities.
It's basically noise at that point. Look at the much less common HBP, and that is 40.9%. It sure looks like no matter how he gets there, a leadoff hitter that reaches first scores ~40% of the time. An error scores slightly more often, but there could be a multi-base error, right?
I would call this stupid saying succesfully debunked.
I always thought the whole "walking the lead-off batter" is that it's thought a pitcher has some control over walks, whereas a ball in play is more likely to turn into an out, so the pitcher is "at fault" for a walk, but not necessarily for a single.