The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread

johnmd20

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Euclis20

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Man, didn't age well at all.
It's remarkable really. Looking at the 6 WRs on the depth chart two years later, one guy is retired (Edelman), one dead (Thomas), one is basically done (Brown), two are barely hanging on (Gordon and Dorsett have a combined 12 catches this year), and one is N'Keal Harry.
 

johnmd20

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It's remarkable really. Looking at the 6 WRs on the depth chart two years later, one guy is retired (Edelman), one dead (Thomas), one is basically done (Brown), two are barely hanging on (Gordon and Dorsett have a combined 12 catches this year), and one is N'Keal Harry.
The dead guy really jumped out to me. That is just insane he is deceased.
 

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On the 2021 vs 2019 comparison:

2019 Pats scored on 36.3 pct of their drives, 14th in NFL. Red zone TD rate was 50% 26th in NFL.

2021 48.5% of drives get points, 1st in NFL. Red zone 61% 13th in NFL.

So the 2021 offense was far more efficient. The only reason the 2019 offense was even remotely close in points as volume of drives.
 

BaseballJones

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On the 2021 vs 2019 comparison:

2019 Pats scored on 36.3 pct of their drives, 14th in NFL. Red zone TD rate was 50% 26th in NFL.

2021 48.5% of drives get points, 1st in NFL. Red zone 61% 13th in NFL.

So the 2021 offense was far more efficient. The only reason the 2019 offense was even remotely close in points as volume of drives.
The Pats' offense is super efficient, but still has room to improve. To score on 48.5% of your drives means you're not turning it over very much, and you're not stalling out quickly on drives. But...they're 13th in the NFL in giveaways (with 20 on the year), so it's not like they're NOT turning it over. They're a little better than average in that department. So that means in their non-turnover possessions, they typically move the ball well enough to score points. So that's a good thing.

Yet if they could improve their red zone TD rate to, say, 67% - not a huge jump really - they'd be scoring a lot more points. So I like these numbers a lot actually. This is a good, solid offense.
 

Gash Prex

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Mac was PFF's second highest grade for last week (89.9) versus the Jaguars only behind Rogers. For the season he is tied for 9th in PFF grade.

Other advanced metrics

11th in EPA/Play
11th in EPA+CPOE
11th in QBR

Essentially Mac, as a rookie, has been the 10/11th best QB with no qualifiers.
 

tims4wins

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The Pats' offense is super efficient, but still has room to improve. To score on 48.5% of your drives means you're not turning it over very much, and you're not stalling out quickly on drives. But...they're 13th in the NFL in giveaways (with 20 on the year), so it's not like they're NOT turning it over. They're a little better than average in that department. So that means in their non-turnover possessions, they typically move the ball well enough to score points. So that's a good thing.

Yet if they could improve their red zone TD rate to, say, 67% - not a huge jump really - they'd be scoring a lot more points. So I like these numbers a lot actually. This is a good, solid offense.
Yeah they play low possession games so they really have to maximize their efficiency in the red zone. When they do, they win, sometimes big. When they struggle in the red zone, it has bitten them.
 

joe dokes

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Mac was PFF's second highest grade for last week (89.9) versus the Jaguars only behind Rogers. For the season he is tied for 9th in PFF grade.
[snip]
Essentially Mac, as a rookie, has been the 10/11th best QB with no qualifiers.
IIRC the pre-season hope of many (or at least me) was that Cam improving to middle of the pack-ness would have the team at least competing for the playoffs. Mac has done better than that, and so has the team (clearly not just the QB is responsible for that). And at the same time, Cam's work in Carolina suggests that he would not have had the improvement to middle of the pack. And in hindsight, BB and McD knew it.
 

snowmanny

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He's likely to be the fifth best QB in the AFC playoffs after Mahomes, Burrow, then Allen and Herbert, (or maybe fourth or tied for fourth if Raiders win) and ahead of Tannehill and Wentz. But I'd call him closer to the 3/4 guys than he is to the 6/7 guys: the Titans and Colts are winning for non-QB reasons. To me he's good enough that a game against anyone except KC would be a coin flip. That's more than I expected.
 

slamminsammya

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Posting his numbers on throws to various parts of the field isn't really knocking down arguments about his going deep because

1) If a player understands his own strengths he won't try those throws unless they are very open, and
2) A good coaching staff won't set up a guy to try those throws anyways.

Its in a similar vein to saying someone like Grant Williams is as good of a 3 point shooter as Steph Curry beause they have similar efficiency per attempt.
 

DJnVa

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Posting his numbers on throws to various parts of the field isn't really knocking down arguments about his going deep because

1) If a player understands his own strengths he won't try those throws unless they are very open, and
2) A good coaching staff won't set up a guy to try those throws anyways.

Its in a similar vein to saying someone like Grant Williams is as good of a 3 point shooter as Steph Curry beause they have similar efficiency per attempt.

There's also a difference in throwing outside the hashes in zone versus man. Jags played zone and Mac burned them outside a lot. As teams digest what he can and cannot do, he'll need to adjust and add things to his game.
 

tims4wins

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As teams digest what he can and cannot do, he'll need to adjust and add things to his game.
Absolutely true. As a reminder, Brady's last 8 games of 2001 (including playoffs):
146-236 (61.9%), 1546 yards (6.55 YPA), 3 TD (1.3%), 6 INT (2.5%), 74.6 passer rating

Somehow (D, special teams, etc.) they went 8-0 in those 8 games, but the point is that defenses had adjusted after Brady's sizzling start.

First 9 games:
173-264 (65.5%), 1,823 yards (6.91 Y/A), 16 TD (6.1%), 7 INT (2.7%), 94.6 passer rating.

We tend to forget this because the Pats went on that run all the way to the title, but Brady really struggled down the stretch of 2001 as a first year QB.

I don't post these stats to try to compare Mac to Brady; but more to show that even the GOAT struggled the second half of his first year as defenses had more film to react to.
 

rodderick

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Been away from the board for a good while due to personal reasons, and just wanted to come in to say I've been pleasantly surprised by Mac and was wrong about his odds of producing at near 2001 Brady level when he absolutely has. By pretty much every metric he's been a fringe top 10 QB this season and I don't know what else we could expect from a rookie. It appears his floor is "good enough to contend with" and that's tremendously valuable in today's NFL, though I still believe he has some physical limitations that could prevent him from ascending to a truly elite level. Absolute home run of a pick, couldn't be happier. The next step in his development will likely come in terms of volume and transforming into a more focal point of the offense, but as long as they can run the ball I really don't want that to be forced.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Been away from the board for a good while due to personal reasons, and just wanted to come in to say I've been pleasantly surprised by Mac and was wrong about his odds of producing at near 2001 Brady level when he absolutely has. By pretty much every metric he's been a fringe top 10 QB this season and I don't know what else we could expect from a rookie. It appears his floor is "good enough to contend with" and that's tremendously valuable in today's NFL, though I still believe he has some physical limitations that could prevent him from ascending to a truly elite level. Absolute home run of a pick, couldn't be happier. The next step in his development will likely come in terms of volume and transforming into a more focal point of the offense, but as long as they can run the ball I really don't want that to be forced.
I agree with this, and would just add that there is a whole lot of room for improvement here, in all aspects of his game, so the question over the next year or two will be how much he can actually improve. Can he improve his arm strength, either actually or by improving his mechanics? I assume there is some limited potential here and that Mac is in a place where every little bit will help him. But, for all the credit Mac gets in the more cerebral parts of the game, we've seen a lot of poor reads and poor decisions at times. And the one positive on his arm - accuracy - has also occasionally been a problem. So room to get better there as well.

I accept the arguments that just because there is room for improvement with a young QB doesn't mean that the QB will actually improve, and that improvement in a QB won't necessarily be linear or predictable. But that cuts both ways. The only way to get a sense of where he goes from here will be to see him next year. I still see plenty of reason for optimism about his becoming a QB that teams can win with.
 

EricFeczko

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Been away from the board for a good while due to personal reasons, and just wanted to come in to say I've been pleasantly surprised by Mac and was wrong about his odds of producing at near 2001 Brady level when he absolutely has. By pretty much every metric he's been a fringe top 10 QB this season and I don't know what else we could expect from a rookie. It appears his floor is "good enough to contend with" and that's tremendously valuable in today's NFL, though I still believe he has some physical limitations that could prevent him from ascending to a truly elite level. Absolute home run of a pick, couldn't be happier. The next step in his development will likely come in terms of volume and transforming into a more focal point of the offense, but as long as they can run the ball I really don't want that to be forced.
By what metrics?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm

ANY/A -- 17th
NY/A -- 14th
Y/A -- 15th
TD % -- 14th
Int % -- 18th
Comp % -- 8th
QBR -- 10th
QB rating -- 16th

He's had some peripheral stats crack the top-ten like completion percentage, otherwise, he's been very clearly average relative to his peers. The top ten in ANY/A are all about 7 -- Mac Jones has an ANY/A of 6.18.

Of course, having an average season as a rookie QB is, in and of itself, pretty phenomenal. Brady threw for a 5.39 ANY/A in 2001 ( though this underscores just how different the game is today vs. in 2001).
 

BaseballJones

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I’d agree that on the whole, Mac has been about dead middle of the pack in terms of starting NFL QBs this year. Which, as you rightly point out, is a pretty awesome outcome for a true rookie. (As opposed to a Brady or Mahomes or Rodgers, whose first year as a starter wasn’t their actual rookie year)
 

EricFeczko

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I’d agree that on the whole, Mac has been about dead middle of the pack in terms of starting NFL QBs this year. Which, as you rightly point out, is a pretty awesome outcome for a true rookie. (As opposed to a Brady or Mahomes or Rodgers, whose first year as a starter wasn’t their actual rookie year)
Absolutely.

Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes had the opportunity to spend at least a year studying under greats like Favre, Belichick, and Reid. They played in practices against NFL-caliber teams for two years before seeing the real game. Mac Jones had a single pandemic-shortened pre-season by comparison.

EDIT: I think its important to look relative to other rookie QBs this year to get a basis for Mac's performance. The poor performance across the board for rookie QBs may reflect unreliable practice relative to other years due to the pandemic (i'd need to check historical stats, which is tricky), making Mac's performance even more awesome.
 

Gash Prex

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By what metrics?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm

ANY/A -- 17th
NY/A -- 14th
Y/A -- 15th
TD % -- 14th
Int % -- 18th
Comp % -- 8th
QBR -- 10th
QB rating -- 16th

He's had some peripheral stats crack the top-ten like completion percentage, otherwise, he's been very clearly average relative to his peers. The top ten in ANY/A are all about 7 -- Mac Jones has an ANY/A of 6.18.

Of course, having an average season as a rookie QB is, in and of itself, pretty phenomenal. Brady threw for a 5.39 ANY/A in 2001 ( though this underscores just how different the game is today vs. in 2001).
by just about every advances stat he’s top 10-11 - the ones you decided to not post

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1478404900505587712
 

Devizier

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I know I’m not the first one to make this comparison, but Mac feels closer to Chad Pennington than Brady. Shoulder injuries aside, that’s a pretty solid outcome.
 

DJnVa

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I know I’m not the first one to make this comparison, but Mac feels closer to Chad Pennington than Brady. Shoulder injuries aside, that’s a pretty solid outcome.
I mean, 99.99% of all QBs ever are closer to Pennington, no?
 

BaseballJones

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Only thing I'm really not liking is the fact that in 3 of the last 4 games (all losses), he's committed 2 turnovers in each game. He cannot do that in the playoffs. This team can't really survive those kinds of mistakes, even though they hang really well despite them. They just haven't been able to overcome that.
 

BaseballJones

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Mac's final regular season stat line as a rookie:

17 g, 352-521 (67.6%), 3,801 yds, 7.3 y/a, 22 td, 13 int, 92.5 rating, 10-7 record, team averaged 27.2 points per game

Pretty damned good for a rookie. Pretty solid for a non-rookie too.
 

Cellar-Door

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One thing I've noticed in recent weeks and it came up again this week, there are throws teams definitely don't think he can make. The pick 6 came in part because Flores called a D where he just said 'ok, if you can fire this ball in after the jam/re-route but before the safety gets over... good for you" and instead flooded the short pattern. Now Mac also stared down his guy which didn't help, but that D was called because they just didn't think Mac could/would make that throw. BUF and IND did some similar stuff, especially early. Played man and forced everything outside basically daring Mac to fire one in and a line before the safety came over.

Mac has been way better than was reasonable to expect. For him to take the next step into a top 10 QB, they need to find a way whether strength or mechanics to put that throw in his arsenal. He's never going to be Herbert or something where he has the arm to just make literally any throw into any window from any base, but along with working on his footwork under pressure, being able to make some of those flatter throws would be huge.
 

BaseballJones

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There seem to be certain throws he cannot make at this point in his career. But there are throws he makes that I don't see many others making. The "drop it in a bucket 30 yards downfield over a defender's outstretched arm" kind of throws - he made two of them today.
 

Cellar-Door

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There seem to be certain throws he cannot make at this point in his career. But there are throws he makes that I don't see many others making. The "drop it in a bucket 30 yards downfield over a defender's outstretched arm" kind of throws - he made two of them today.
He has great touch, and that helps him a lot, especially when he gets single coverage without a safety, and time to set.
He doesn't have great strength. So teams will try to scheme that and give him as few chances to set and throw deep without a safety, and leave him as many low trajectory middle to long throws with a safety over the top as he wants.
If he never develops it.. he'll be a middle of the league QB who beats up bad teams and struggles against top defenses. If he develops it he has a chance to be a top QB and a guy you happily give a big 2nd contract and think you can win a title at market value.
 

slamminsammya

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That one throw towards the end down the sideline to Meyers for 36 yards or whatever really stood out. It was a great catch but it looked severely underthrown and it didn't seem like he wanted it to end up where it did.
 

SMU_Sox

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The interception reminded me of what the Chiefs did against the Bengals where you have the outside corner line up in man and initially play the vertical but then he peels off to the underneath route and tries to cut it off. It was a great play call and it fooled Mac. I’m not sure if he should have seen it or if he needed to throw it earlier. The guys I watched it with think he should have seen it but I want to wait to see the replay. He had happy feet in the pocket again today. Like I said after the Bills game but I think he’s hit the wall for improvement this year. He hopefully speeds up his post snap processing, work on his mechanics, and adds both strength and flexibility this off-season.
 

soxhop411

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The interception reminded me of what the Chiefs did against the Bengals where you have the outside corner line up in man and initially play the vertical but then he peels off to the underneath route and tries to cut it off. It was a great play call and it fooled Mac. I’m not sure if he should have seen it or if he needed to throw it earlier. The guys I watched it with think he should have seen it but I want to wait to see the replay. He had happy feet in the pocket again today. Like I said after the Bills game but I think he’s hit the wall for improvement this year. He hopefully speeds up his post snap processing, work on his mechanics, and adds both strength and flexibility this off-season.
blending my sports terminology here for a bit, but would you compare the “rookie wall” for a QB to the “rookie wall” a SP faces during their rookie season in the majors?

seems like it’s somewhat common for rookies SP and QB’s to hit that stamina/repetition wall at some point in their rookie season? (Dead arm/innings limit/mechanics issues etc for a SP)

hopefully a full offseason where he can work out with people on the patriots staff can help fix those issues like you said.
(Just like a SP having a Full off-season to work with the big league staff during the off-season vs having to work with the MILB staff)
 
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Eddie Jurak

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One thing I've noticed in recent weeks and it came up again this week, there are throws teams definitely don't think he can make. The pick 6 came in part because Flores called a D where he just said 'ok, if you can fire this ball in after the jam/re-route but before the safety gets over... good for you" and instead flooded the short pattern. Now Mac also stared down his guy which didn't help, but that D was called because they just didn't think Mac could/would make that throw. BUF and IND did some similar stuff, especially early. Played man and forced everything outside basically daring Mac to fire one in and a line before the safety came over.

Mac has been way better than was reasonable to expect. For him to take the next step into a top 10 QB, they need to find a way whether strength or mechanics to put that throw in his arsenal. He's never going to be Herbert or something where he has the arm to just make literally any throw into any window from any base, but along with working on his footwork under pressure, being able to make some of those flatter throws would be huge.
Mac's struggles the past few weeks have shown that there are throws defenses don't expect him to attempt/make, and that is a problem. But they have also shown a lot of other issues, from the physical (struggles with his mechanics, poor accuracy) to the mental: poor reads, staring guys down, occasional failure to just execute plays. The Pats offense asks a lot of a QB and it seems fair at this point to surmise that Mac has not mastered it and is not able to use all the tools the offense has in the same way a prime Brady could.

Anyway, my point is just that, OK, if he has a stringer arm he likely doesn;t throw the pick six. But also if he doesn't stare down his target, not see the DB jumping the route, and poorly locate his throw, he also doesn't throw the pick six.

He ability to approve in one dimension - arm strength - is unknown but likely very limited.

His ability to improve in other dimensions - reads, execution, accuracy, moving in the pocket, etc. - are also unknown but a lot of those are more in line with his perceived strangths as a QB.

My sole point in bringing this up is that there is a lot of room for improvement here. Nothing guaranteed but the possibilities are there, and they interact - whatever more he can squeeze out of his arm, if anything, makes the other improvements easier.

I was talking to my brother yesterday, and he is basically 100% out on Mac Jones. Too slight of build, too weak of an arm, will never be able to succeed in bad weather, football playoffs happen in January and February. I think that is very premature. But we shall see.
 

Arroyoyo

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I wasn’t worried about his arm strength until I saw him float a number of deep balls short of where they needed to be (forcing the receivers to pull back).

Is it really unusual, though, for young quarterbacks to add arm strength as they mature? Could this be improved in the next 2-3 years to average or maybe slightly above average? That’s all we need, right? He doesn’t need to have a rocket; just not noodle.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The interception reminded me of what the Chiefs did against the Bengals where you have the outside corner line up in man and initially play the vertical but then he peels off to the underneath route and tries to cut it off. It was a great play call and it fooled Mac. I’m not sure if he should have seen it or if he needed to throw it earlier. The guys I watched it with think he should have seen it but I want to wait to see the replay. He had happy feet in the pocket again today. Like I said after the Bills game but I think he’s hit the wall for improvement this year. He hopefully speeds up his post snap processing, work on his mechanics, and adds both strength and flexibility this off-season.
I'm far from you as an x/o guy, but my take was that Flores was testing Mac a bit there---switched the coverage to see if he adjusted, and he did not.

My personal view is that while it is certainly true Mac has some throws he won't make, the bigger thing teams are keying on is that he's been over the course of the year a beat slow on a lot of passes. That allows the defense to bring extra defenders over, close gaps, and gives an extra beat for the pass rush to get home, etc. The Pats I expect know that and are pushing him to trust his reads and instincts more, and that in turn opens up things like that INT yesterday as defensive 'tests' playing off his desire to move more quickly.

One adjustment we might see next is some double-moves and pump-fakes---neither of which has featured much in Pats offense thus far
 

DJnVa

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I'm far from you as an x/o guy, but my take was that Flores was testing Mac a bit there---switched the coverage to see if he adjusted, and he did not.

My personal view is that while it is certainly true Mac has some throws he won't make, the bigger thing teams are keying on is that he's been over the course of the year a beat slow on a lot of passes. That allows the defense to bring extra defenders over, close gaps, and gives an extra beat for the pass rush to get home, etc. The Pats I expect know that and are pushing him to trust his reads and instincts more, and that in turn opens up things like that INT yesterday as defensive 'tests' playing off his desire to move more quickly.

One adjustment we might see next is some double-moves and pump-fakes---neither of which has featured much in Pats offense thus far

We've heard Brady say for years that nothing on the field surprises him. Jones will still be surprised. This isn't Vanderbilt trying to confuse him, it's NFL guys. I feel certain that he's gonna watch a metric shit-ton of film this offseason. He can get faster without increasing his arm strength just by being a fraction quicker on his reads. That's just gonna come with time.

Jones was actually better in second half of season, even as teams built film on him:

Games 1-8: 68.1% completion, 9/6 TD/INT, 90.6 rating, 6.76 AYA
Games 9-17: 67.0% completion, 13/7 TD/INT, 95.3 rating, 7.32 AYA
 

RG33

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We've heard Brady say for years that nothing on the field surprises him. Jones will still be surprised. This isn't Vanderbilt trying to confuse him, it's NFL guys. I feel certain that he's gonna watch a metric shit-ton of film this offseason. He can get faster without increasing his arm strength just by being a fraction quicker on his reads. That's just gonna come with time.

Jones was actually better in second half of season, even as teams built film on him:

Games 1-8: 68.1% completion, 9/6 TD/INT, 90.6 rating, 6.76 AYA
Games 9-17: 67.0% completion, 13/7 TD/INT, 95.3 rating, 7.32 AYA
Yeah, Belichick recently called him the best rookie that he has ever coached. I’m pretty comfortable saying that Mac Jones is going to absolutely annhilate film, playbook, and gym this offseason and come by rearing to go. As has been mentioned, next September will put him in the same spot as Thomas Andrew Brady in 2001 when he made his first start. This year is all gravy — and has been beyond expectactions for me, the Patriots are in great shape with Mac leading the charge in the future.
 

Harry Hooper

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I was talking to my brother yesterday, and he is basically 100% out on Mac Jones. Too slight of build, too weak of an arm, will never be able to succeed in bad weather, football playoffs happen in January and February. I think that is very premature. But we shall see.
Yes, it's premature as the cold weather factor cannot be teased apart from the length of the season factor without changing the NFL schedule to start in March. It is a valid concern at this point, though. News next season that Mac had adapted to using a throwing glove in cold weather would be encouraging.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Yes, it's premature as the cold weather factor cannot be teased apart from the length of the season factor without changing the NFL schedule to start in March. It is a valid concern at this point, though. News next season that Mac had adapted to using a throwing glove in cold weather would be encouraging.
Im still pro-Mac. I think his late year struggles are due in part to teams getting film on him and designing effective ways to attack him that he and the Pats offense have not yet adjusted to.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I haven't read this entire thread to see whether anyone's discussed this, but I'm still wondering whether Mac's left leg has been hampered by some type of nagging injury. He didn't wear a brace at the start, but then started wearing it early on. I wonder whether he has some issue that's limiting his ability to throw. Maybe he needs his knee scoped or something after the season.
 

PedroKsBambino

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We've heard Brady say for years that nothing on the field surprises him. Jones will still be surprised. This isn't Vanderbilt trying to confuse him, it's NFL guys. I feel certain that he's gonna watch a metric shit-ton of film this offseason. He can get faster without increasing his arm strength just by being a fraction quicker on his reads. That's just gonna come with time.

Jones was actually better in second half of season, even as teams built film on him:

Games 1-8: 68.1% completion, 9/6 TD/INT, 90.6 rating, 6.76 AYA
Games 9-17: 67.0% completion, 13/7 TD/INT, 95.3 rating, 7.32 AYA
I'm optimistic as well, though I do think whether his arm strength improves is simply an unknown. I think his speed and quality of diagnosis and decisionmaking is nearly certain to go up, and that will help a bunch.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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One thing I've noticed in recent weeks and it came up again this week, there are throws teams definitely don't think he can make. The pick 6 came in part because Flores called a D where he just said 'ok, if you can fire this ball in after the jam/re-route but before the safety gets over... good for you" and instead flooded the short pattern. Now Mac also stared down his guy which didn't help, but that D was called because they just didn't think Mac could/would make that throw. BUF and IND did some similar stuff, especially early. Played man and forced everything outside basically daring Mac to fire one in and a line before the safety came over.

Mac has been way better than was reasonable to expect. For him to take the next step into a top 10 QB, they need to find a way whether strength or mechanics to put that throw in his arsenal. He's never going to be Herbert or something where he has the arm to just make literally any throw into any window from any base, but along with working on his footwork under pressure, being able to make some of those flatter throws would be huge.
I 100% agree with the overall conclusion in the second paragraph. And its definitely the case that Mac's questionable ability to make that outside throw on a line gives the defense the option of doing exactly what they did. But it should still never be a pick six. When the DB has broken off the receiver after the jam, Mac hasn't even started to wind up, its pretty obviously zone coverage with only three rushers, and he still fires it right to the DB. I think its a situation where Mac's current limitations give the defense more options, especially when it comes to flooding short areas (at that moment there are five coverage defenders right at the first down marker), but throwing a pick-six there is really a processing/mental mistake more than anything. He needs to see that it isn't there and go through his progression.
 

lexrageorge

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I wasn’t worried about his arm strength until I saw him float a number of deep balls short of where they needed to be (forcing the receivers to pull back).

Is it really unusual, though, for young quarterbacks to add arm strength as they mature? Could this be improved in the next 2-3 years to average or maybe slightly above average? That’s all we need, right? He doesn’t need to have a rocket; just not noodle.
Yes, he could and should be able to improve the zip on the ball. The strength of a throw is more than just arm strength; there are a lot of body mechanics involved as well. And his arm will likely get stronger after a couple of years of the team's strength and conditioning program. He will never be the strongest armed QB in the league, but his likely ceiling is probably average; maybe slightly below or above.

There's also a chance he never improves, but the same could be said for any rookie QB.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Yeah, Belichick recently called him the best rookie that he has ever coached. I’m pretty comfortable saying that Mac Jones is going to absolutely annhilate film, playbook, and gym this offseason and come by rearing to go. As has been mentioned, next September will put him in the same spot as Thomas Andrew Brady in 2001 when he made his first start. This year is all gravy — and has been beyond expectactions for me, the Patriots are in great shape with Mac leading the charge in the future.
I'm pretty sold on this too. Its unclear to what degree Mac can overcome some of his physical limitations but I'm confident that nobody is going to outwork him this offseason and that he'll come back a better player making fewer mental mistakes and probably with his mechanics and footwork consistently cleaner.

At minimum, Mac is going to be an average to somewhat above average starting NFL QB who is a huge bargain on his rookie deal for the next three seasons.
 

joe dokes

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My uneducated eye still sees him throwing to the "wrong" guy somewhat regularly. (Other more open, or about to be). Even on completions. I assume its some combination of experience, patience and confidence (in himself, the line and the receiver). I'm still on the train.
 

Ferm Sheller

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We also have to ask ourselves what the better QBs in the league would do with this set of receivers. They have a few nice/solid pieces (Henry, Bourne, Meyers), but this isn't a group brimming with talent -- far from it.
 

rodderick

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We also have to ask ourselves what the better QBs in the league would do with this set of receivers. They have a few nice/solid pieces (Henry, Bourne, Meyers), but this isn't a group brimming with talent -- far from it.
It's hard to say because the better QBs in the league likely wouldn't be throwing the ball so infrequently and teams wouldn't be gearing up to stop the run against them, so passing for them would probably be harder than it is for Mac. I don't believe that group would be enough to sustain a good pass first offense.
 

SMU_Sox

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I asked Mark about it on the slack last night because it reminded me of, like I said earlier, the Chiefs game.

Here is the throw. Notice that Howard has peeled off and Mac is staring at that route - so in theory he should see coverage is peeled off here.

48191

In any kind of cover 2 w/o man match from the corner underneath on the vertical you would think Jones takes the hole shot to Agholor but that is covered by a safety not in the picture. X/O's specific I think with the safety over the top immediately coming down to take on the vertical is in cloud. I could be wrong. Mark said it was a straight trap with the corner showing man but then making a zone drop.

Seems like Jones hesitates while Howard is reading his eyes and following them. If Jones gets it out before Meyers breaks there would have been a window for the throw. Instead he pats the ball and waits for Meyers to break and then throws it. It isn't a missile and Howard has a pretty easy pick. He's looking at that side before he throws it. How does he not see Howard there?
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Seems like Jones hesitates while Howard is reading his eyes and following them. If Jones gets it out before Meyers breaks there would have been a window for the throw. Instead he pats the ball and waits for Meyers to break and then throws it. It isn't a missile and Howard has a pretty easy pick. He's looking at that side before he throws it. How does he not see Howard there?
I think its really a brainfart more than anything else. To me, it actually seems like a relatively simple case of needing to see its not there and just go through his progressions. There are only three rushers, he has Bourne running a crosser on the other side and might find a window to sneak a throw in to him, if the LB in the middle comes down on Bourne he's got Henry 1 on 1 running some kind of post against the safety on the far side who had outside leverage, Agholor might even end up burning the rotating near side safety on the go route if the safety came down too aggressively, etc. There are going to be opportunities to make a play here. He has to understand that when the defense drops 8 and has 5 defenders right near the first down marker on third and short that he needs to be able to let the play develop because the defense is completely geared toward taking away a quick hitter.
 

Strike4

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It's hard to say because the better QBs in the league likely wouldn't be throwing the ball so infrequently and teams wouldn't be gearing up to stop the run against them, so passing for them would probably be harder than it is for Mac. I don't believe that group would be enough to sustain a good pass first offense.
This is an excellent point and part of the paradox of Mac's future: you won't see the Patriots in a game like last night's Chargers-Raiders one because the Patriots don't "play that way" on both sides of the football. So is it that Mac will never be a QB like Carr or Herbert because of who Mac is, or is it that the Patriots as constructed and coached will never put Mac in the situation where they rely on him like a Carr or Herbert (or so many others)?
 

Gash Prex

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I don't think its too complicated - Mac read man defense immediately with Howard traveling up field Nelson leaving an easy out throw to Meyers - and instead the Dolphins peeled off and ran a zone. Mac made a bad read - pick 6.