The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread

[Jimbodandy]

I asked Mark about it on the slack last night because it reminded me of, like I said earlier, the Chiefs game.

Here is the throw. Notice that Howard has peeled off and Mac is staring at that route - so in theory he should see coverage is peeled off here.

View attachment 48191

In any kind of cover 2 w/o man match from the corner underneath on the vertical you would think Jones takes the hole shot to Agholor but that is covered by a safety not in the picture. X/O's specific I think with the safety over the top immediately coming down to take on the vertical is in cloud. I could be wrong. Mark said it was a straight trap with the corner showing man but then making a zone drop.

Seems like Jones hesitates while Howard is reading his eyes and following them. If Jones gets it out before Meyers breaks there would have been a window for the throw. Instead he pats the ball and waits for Meyers to break and then throws it. It isn't a missile and Howard has a pretty easy pick. He's looking at that side before he throws it. How does he not see Howard there?

Fwiw, I think that he sees Howard there, but he's not reading Howard. At quick glance, Howard could look like he's still in man. Read the body language for a couple more milliseconds, and clearly he's peeling off.

You see this with better QBs too. A few weeks ago, Bryant peeled off of Beasley for a breakup, and Allen didn't have time to process it because we brought a bunch of guys. Even TFB has his share of these.

Mac will see them better over time. Wasn't much reason to force there, except that the game is still a bit sped up for him. He's pretty good at reading leverage usually, so it's more of a pace thing imo.

 

[Arroyoyo]

Welp, not to look past this weekend’s WC game, but we know who Mac will be seeing in 2022. He’ll have quite a few tough road games in 2022 which will shed a lot of light on how much he’s grown from 2021 through 2022.

I image Pats fans are going to take over that Vegas game.

Patriots home matchups

• Buffalo Bills
• Miami Dolphins
• New York Jets
• Baltimore Ravens
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions
• Indianapolis Colts

Patriots away matchups

• Bills
• Dolphins
• Jets
• Arizona Cardinals
• Cleveland Browns
• Green Bay Packers
• Minnesota Vikings
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Las Vegas Raiders

 

[SMU_Sox]

I don't think its too complicated - Mac read man defense immediately with Howard traveling up field Nelson leaving an easy out throw to Meyers - and instead the Dolphins peeled off and ran a zone. Mac made a bad read - pick 6.

This is where I am at too. I just don't get how he doesn't see that 25 is like 2-3 yards away if that in zone and is in position to cut off that route. Brain fart is a fine guess.

Just a painful reminder that life with a rookie QB is really frustrating.

I am on the fence with Mac. If he can improve the three things I mentioned upthread: post-snap processing/anticipation, footwork/mechanics, and arm strength he should be a good QB. If he doesn't get much better he's around an average starting QB which is fine on a rookie deal but it's a lot easier to win when you have an elite QB to cover up holes vs having to have a stacked roster everywhere else because your QB is meh. You'd think with his work ethic and love of the game he improves. And they aren't dead yet - they could still possibly beat the Bills next week. I am sure Mac would love to have another crack at them.

 

[BaseballJones]

Mac's 17 games, in order of passer rating (best to worst):

Week 10 vs Cle (W, 45-7): 19-23 (82.6%), 198 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 142.1 rating
Week 17 vs Jax (W, 50-10): 22-30 (73.3%), 227 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 128.1 rating
Week 12 vs Ten (W, 36-13): 23-32 (71.9%), 310 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 123.2 rating
Week 6 vs Dal (L, 35-29): 15-21 (71.4%), 229 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 118.9 rating
Week 7 vs NYJ (W, 54-13): 24-36 (66.7%), 307 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 111.7 rating
Week 1 vs Mia (L, 17-16): 29-39 (74.4%), 281 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 102.6 rating
Week 4 vs TB (L, 19-17): 31-40 (77.5%), 275 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 101.6 rating
Week 11 at Atl (W, 25-0): 22-26 (84.5%), 207 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 96.6 rating
Week 5 at Hou (W, 25-22): 23-30 (76.7%), 231 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 95.3 rating
Week 18 at Mia (L, 33-24): 20-30 (66.7%), 261 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 91.1 rating
Week 2 at NYJ (W, 25-6): 22-30 (73.3%), 186 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 89.0 rating
Week 9 at Car (W, 24-6): 12-18 (66.7%), 139 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 85.2 rating
Week 13 at Buf (W, 14-10): 2-3 (66.7%), 19 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 84.0 rating
Week 15 at Ind (L, 27-17): 26-45 (57.8%), 299 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 74.2 rating
Week 8 at LAC (W, 27-24): 18-35 (51.4%), 217 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 70.8 rating
Week 3 vs NO (L, 28-13): 30-51 (58.8%), 270 yds, 1 td, 3 int, 55.2 rating
Week 16 vs Buf (L, 33-21): 14-32 (43.8%), 145 yds, 0 td, 2 int, 31.4 rating

Some observations....

1. His three best games came in the second half of the season. After teams started to make adjustments.
2. His seven best games were all at home. Here's his overall home/road split:
- Home: 207-304 (68.1%), 2,242 yds, 16 td, 7 int, 97.5 rating
- Road: 145-217 (66.8%), 1,559 yds, 6 td, 6 int, 85.4 rating
In order to advance in this year's playoffs, the Pats (and Mac) need to do it on the road. Those numbers...aren't very encouraging along those lines.
3. 7 out of his 17 games he had a passer rating over 100. That's really good for a rookie.
4. Only 4 games were truly bad - ratings below 84. The 2021 average passer rating across the league is 88.9. So 11 of his 17 games, he was giving above average performances. That's pretty good.
5. Against playoff teams (Ten, Dal, TB, Buf x2):
- 85-128 (66.4%), 978 yds, 7.6 y/a, 6 td, 4 int, 91.9 rating, 2-3 record, offense averaged 22.6 points per game
6. Passer rating while:
- Leading: 107.7
- Tied: 104.4
- Trailing: 81.1
7. When running RPO: 25-28 (89.3%), 304 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 111.9 rating

We know he ran a lot of RPO in college and was obviously very successful at it there. And obviously he's successful at it so far in the NFL. So why doesn't NE run more of it?

 

[SMU_Sox]

I know he had good stats vs Tennessee but his process was a mess. They dropped multiple interceptions and he missed wide open guys. His receivers were YAC demons that day. Tennessee was one of those games where the stats looked good but the tape didn't. YMMV. I really do not like box score scouting though for that reason. Not sure how else you can really do it of course. I strongly object to saying he had his third best game of the year vs TEN.

 

[snowmanny]

I agree with the middle of the pack as a starting QB assessment. In terms of the 14 playoff quarterbacks there are 8 teams featuring a QB certainly better than Mac: GB, TB, AZ, DAL, LAR, KC. BUF, CIN.
YMMV on SF, LV, TN, PIT, PHI but me, I'd take him over the last three.

 

[SMU_Sox]

And if we look at the last 4 games for Mac he's been bad. If you want to go by QB rating: 74.2 at the Colts with 2 turnovers (2 INTs), 31.4 vs Buffalo with 2 turnovers (2 INTs) and a fumble that was recovered, 128.1 vs Jaguars with 0 turnovers, and a 91.1 vs Miami but 2 turnovers (1 INT 1 fumble) and one of those was a pick-six. QB rating would suggest he had an ok day at 91.1 but would anyone here argue Mac played well yesterday?

Also if you look at his median qb rating vs the average...

Because it is a 17 game season I am going to do some splits here.
Median QB Rating first 8 games: 98.5
Median QB Rating first 9 games: 95.3
Median QB Rating last 8 games: 93.9
Median QB Rating last 9 games: 91.1

They are close but I would argue he has been worse week to week the back half of the year vs the first 8 games. I also don't like using average because one really good game skews the numbers.

Mac has had 6 turnovers the last 4 games and all 6 have been in losses.

I am not sure this team is potent enough to overcome multiple turnovers against good teams. Not many are. There is a reason rookie QBs don't tend to have any playoff success aside from the fact that bad teams are usually starting rookie QBs. If want any chance to beat Buffalo and bad Allen doesn't show up Mac can't be gifting the Bills 2 turnovers again. Not a winning formula... I know that's obvious but when you lose 3 out of your last 4 and part of why you did was because you got down early in each game largely in part to turnovers and shitty QB play early on it's a thing.

 

[luckiestman]

I agree with the middle of the pack as a starting QB assessment. In terms of the 14 playoff quarterbacks there are 8 teams featuring a QB certainly better than Mac: GB, TB, AZ, DAL, LAR, KC. BUF, CIN.
YMMV on SF, LV, TN, PIT, PHI but me, I'd take him over the last three.

Just the Pennsylvania teams for me.

 

[Cellar-Door]

One of the things that I think of when looking at say that INT, and also people who think better QBs wouldn't do much better with our WRs... that's open if Mac is Justin Herbert. He made a longer throw into a tighter window with less separation on one of their TDs, and did it shuffling to his left. Now he probably doesn't throw it, because he's borderline too aggressive and he probably holds it and goes for the outside man, but... if he misreads that defense the same way Mac did and fires it in... he gets away with it likely, where Mac is easily picked.

 

[DJnVa]

There's a lot of "his numbers looked okay but he didn't play *that* well" without the other side of the coin----times he did the right thing and the ball was dropped, or the receiver stopped his route, etc.

 

[SMU_Sox]

One of the things that I think of when looking at say that INT, and also people who think better QBs wouldn't do much better with our WRs... that's open if Mac is Justin Herbert. He made a longer throw into a tighter window with less separation on one of their TDs, and did it shuffling to his left. Now he probably doesn't throw it, because he's borderline too aggressive and he probably holds it and goes for the outside man, but... if he misreads that defense the same way Mac did and fires it in... he gets away with it likely, where Mac is easily picked.

I was having that same conversation today, Cellar-Door. Arm-talent + mental acuity = pro bowl QB. Maybe Herbert doesn't get the completion but it might not be picked off vs just broken up.

 

[IdiotKicker]

I am on the fence with Mac. If he can improve the three things I mentioned upthread: post-snap processing/anticipation, footwork/mechanics, and arm strength he should be a good QB. If he doesn't get much better he's around an average starting QB which is fine on a rookie deal but it's a lot easier to win when you have an elite QB to cover up holes vs having to have a stacked roster everywhere else because your QB is meh. You'd think with his work ethic and love of the game he improves. And they aren't dead yet - they could still possibly beat the Bills next week. I am sure Mac would love to have another crack at them.

To piggyback on this, the interesting scenario to game out if if Mac simply is what he is and can't improve those areas meaningfully. A league-average QB on a rookie deal is still a valuable commodity because you're saving a decent chunk of change compared to an average veteran. So let's say that Mac is basically the same guy next year, and shows a little improvement after Year 3. If he's the guy, he's the guy - pay him and be done with it if the development happens. But if he's not the guy, but he's still a capable QB, do you try to leverage that rookie deal into other assets, or do you let him play out the string on it and draft the next guy behind him in Year 4 or Year 5?

I'm not saying that will or won't be the case. But that's the most interesting scenario to game out - you have an average QB who has value for a couple years, and how do you maximize that value?

 

[Mystic Merlin]

To piggyback on this, the interesting scenario to game out if if Mac simply is what he is and can't improve those areas meaningfully. A league-average QB on a rookie deal is still a valuable commodity because you're saving a decent chunk of change compared to an average veteran. So let's say that Mac is basically the same guy next year, and shows a little improvement after Year 3. If he's the guy, he's the guy - pay him and be done with it if the development happens. But if he's not the guy, but he's still a capable QB, do you try to leverage that rookie deal into other assets, or do you let him play out the string on it and draft the next guy behind him in Year 4 or Year 5?

I'm not saying that will or won't be the case. But that's the most interesting scenario to game out - you have an average QB who has value for a couple years, and how do you maximize that value?

Average starting QB on a rookie deal you’re probably looking at - if many other things go well - a ceiling as a perennial playoff contender that will not threaten for a championship. Maybe you really threaten a title run one year because, say, your defense has an exceptional season/run of games.

The Andy Dalton era Bengals, basically?

 

[BaseballJones]

Average starting QB on a rookie deal you’re probably looking at - if many other things go well - a ceiling as a perennial playoff contender that will not threaten for a championship. Maybe you really threaten a title run one year because, say, your defense has an exceptional season/run of games.

The Andy Dalton era Bengals, basically?

Except you have the best coach in the sport, not Marvin Lewis. So you stand a much better chance at something more than the Dalton era Bengals accomplished.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@IdiotKicker If I were making decisions I’d probably draft an X receiver sometime on day 2 or early 3 who also can play on STs. A returner might be nice. I wouldn’t spend FA dollars on WR though for next year. I would see how much Mac improves and then if he doesn’t improve a ton spend on weapons in 2023 when they have some cap space. If he is going to live in the average to above average range then your best bet on his rookie deal is loading up on skilled position players and making sure the OL is sound. With the draft I’d say focus on OL as I think they are better developing and identifying those guys but that could just be a sample size fluke.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Except you have the best coach in the sport, not Marvin Lewis. So you stand a much better chance at something more than the Dalton era Bengals accomplished.

They will not be a perennial final four team if Mac turns out to be an average starting QB (ie, 14-17 or so).

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Average starting QB on a rookie deal you’re probably looking at - if many other things go well - a ceiling as a perennial playoff contender that will not threaten for a championship. Maybe you really threaten a title run one year because, say, your defense has an exceptional season/run of games.

The Andy Dalton era Bengals, basically?

Despite the rep, Andy Dalton was consistently a below average starting QB during his first four years. He also basically showed no improvement at all. By QBR he ranked 19, 20, 22, and 24 during his first four years. Same deal largely by ANY/A except for being a bit higher one year in 2013. Prior to his 4th year he signed a big contract and was no longer on a rookie deal.

Even if Mac doesn't significantly improve his arm strength, I think a realistic scenario is that he is more of a slightly above average guy (but not elite) guy over the course of his rookie deal. Winning with the 10th or 12th best QB in the league feels a lot more plausible than with the 22nd best guy.

 

[Fishercat]

I wonder if we're being a bit overly harsh here. Acknowledging that QB Rating is a misleading stat, here's the Year 1 to Year 2 changes of first round QBs from the last five years (+ means an improvement in rating, - means a decrease, I'll try to note small sample size issues)

2020
Joe Burrow (+19)
Tua Taglvailoa (+3, didn't start whole season either year)
Justin Herbert (-1 ; still in high 90s, played full season Year 2)
Jordan Love (NA, technically +68 since he didn't take a snap Year 1 but...no one is happy with this)

2019
Kyler Murray (+7)
Daniel Jones (-7)
Dwayne Haskins (-3, limited play both seasons)

2018
Baker Mayfield (-15)
Sam Darnold (+7)
Josh Allen (+17)
Josh Rosen (-14 - team change with limited play in both seasons)
Lamar Jackson (+29 - limited starts in year one and has returned more to his initial levels in following years)

2017
Mitch Trubisky (+18)
Patrick Mahomes (NA - one start his rookie year isn't a fair comparison and his first full season was so high to be off the scale)
Deshaun Watson (+0, started at 103)

2016
Jared Goff (+37, Sean McVay)
Carson Wentz (+23)
Paxton Lynch (-7, limited action both seasons)

While there's changes all across the board, I think that there is reason to think that even if this is who he "is", that the statistics this season could still be improved upon. I think it's fair to note the positive jumps generally corresponded with those core physical skills that Mac may not have, so a huge jump may not be in the cards but I think there's still room to get better. This could also be contextualized with the idea that most of these QBs didn't have a Belichick-esque staff or as much support around them as Mac does, I just think that expecting a bit more consistent work as a QB seems reasonable. Especially if he's going into year two with the same targets or maybe even one or two improvements. There seemed to be some real progress with Bourne as time went on at least.

Ultimately, you probably need an elite QB to be a perennial Final 4 team, but how many Perennial Final 4 teams exist in the modern day NFL? I don't see the Pats winning this year or anything but even if Mac shows some minor improvements I don't have trouble believing the Pats could be a real contender through his rookie deal either. It's also not unheard of for a QB to have that one absurd year and have a team ride to the Super Bowl on that either, just needs to be the right run I guess.

Edit: Of course, QB Rating doesn't really account for the modern QB experience super well. Like...Mac Jones and Josh Allen had roughly the same QB Rating this year, but Allen's ability to make insane throws when needed plus his legs really add a ton to his value Mac doesn't have right now...with that said Mac's rookie year was so much better than Josh's so it can go both ways.

 

[tims4wins]

Mac on the pick-6:

Of the pick-6, he said: "I knew what coverage they were playing. I just didn't see the outside guy and I threw it too wide. It was my fault. It was Cover 2, there's nothing to it. It's simple, and I have to read it out and do a better job getting the ball to the right guy."

 

[Valek123]

Mac on the pick-6:

Of the pick-6, he said: "I knew what coverage they were playing. I just didn't see the outside guy and I threw it too wide. It was my fault. It was Cover 2, there's nothing to it. It's simple, and I have to read it out and do a better job getting the ball to the right guy."

I really like this kid, says the right things, clearly has support across the locker room. To me he's Chad Pennington, with any luck he connects with Tom House over the off-season and spends the next few off-seasons continuing to clean-up his footwork/motion to maximize what he has for arm strength. I firmly live in the like the athlete/decision making process question the NFL arm strength long-term and desperately want to be wrong in the second part.

He's a leader with a bright future ahead if he can continue to clean-up some what appear to be fixable things. One of those players you generally want to succeed...

 

[BaseballJones]

They will not be a perennial final four team if Mac turns out to be an average starting QB (ie, 14-17 or so).

There's no team in football that's a "perennial final four team". The Chiefs maybe, but it's only been 3 years for them. Pretty good chance they'll get to the AFCCG this year, making it four in a row. Or Tampa with Brady could be at it for the second straight year. Green Bay has gotten to the NFCCG two years in a row but hasn't won the whole thing since the 2010 season.

So I guess the only teams that might qualify as "perennial final four" teams all have hall of fame quarterbacks. If that's what it takes, then almost certainly the Patriots won't get there with Mac, as it's extremely unlikely that he's a HOF quarterback. So I don't think "perennial final four team" is in any way a realistic goal.

I think what the Pats' goal should be is fighting for the playoffs every year, making it most of the time, and once every few years making a nice run in the playoffs. If that turns into a SB title once or twice along the way, awesome. If not, that's ok.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

There's no team in football that's a "perennial final four team". The Chiefs maybe, but it's only been 3 years for them. Pretty good chance they'll get to the AFCCG this year, making it four in a row. Or Tampa with Brady could be at it for the second straight year. Green Bay has gotten to the NFCCG two years in a row but hasn't won the whole thing since the 2010 season.

So I guess the only teams that might qualify as "perennial final four" teams all have hall of fame quarterbacks. If that's what it takes, then almost certainly the Patriots won't get there with Mac, as it's extremely unlikely that he's a HOF quarterback. So I don't think "perennial final four team" is in any way a realistic goal.

I think what the Pats' goal should be is fighting for the playoffs every year, making it most of the time, and once every few years making a nice run in the playoffs. If that turns into a SB title once or twice along the way, awesome. If not, that's ok.

I didn’t say it wasn’t ok.

 

[8slim]

It gets taken for granted, but I'm impressed that Mac started 17 games and played every meaningful snap of the season without getting injured. Seems like very few rookie QBs escape their first season without getting banged up and missing at least some time. Playing in front of a solid OL certainly is a huge help, but I firmly believe that there is a skill to avoiding debilitating hits, and I think Mac generally has that.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Despite the rep, Andy Dalton was consistently a below average starting QB during his first four years. He also basically showed no improvement at all. By QBR he ranked 19, 20, 22, and 24 during his first four years. Same deal largely by ANY/A except for being a bit higher one year in 2013. Prior to his 4th year he signed a big contract and was no longer on a rookie deal.

Even if Mac doesn't significantly improve his arm strength, I think a realistic scenario is that he is more of a slightly above average guy (but not elite) guy over the course of his rookie deal. Winning with the 10th or 12th best QB in the league feels a lot more plausible than with the 22nd best guy.

That surprises me; I stand corrected on my recollection of how good Dalton was.

 

[tims4wins]

It gets taken for granted, but I'm impressed that Mac started 17 games and played every meaningful snap of the season without getting injured. Seems like very few rookie QBs escape their first season without getting banged up and missing at least some time. Playing in front of a solid OL certainly is a huge help, but I firmly believe that there is a skill to avoiding debilitating hits, and I think Mac generally has that.

Very much agree that this is an accomplishment that shouldn’t be taken for granted, especially with his build. His teammates praise his toughness weekly so I think it’s a strong trait.

 

[DJnVa]

They will not be a perennial final four team if Mac turns out to be an average starting QB (ie, 14-17 or so).

Outside of teams led by Brady, are there perennial final four teams?

I do the same thing and compare what we Mac to be with what we had with Brady, and that's impossible. The goal for what we want to be with Mac is to be a team that can perennially be a playoff contender, and when the seasons break right, a team that is in the mix for the bye.

 

[heavyde050]

Average starting QB on a rookie deal you’re probably looking at - if many other things go well - a ceiling as a perennial playoff contender that will not threaten for a championship. Maybe you really threaten a title run one year because, say, your defense has an exceptional season/run of games.

The Andy Dalton era Bengals, basically?

That just described Jimmy G as well.
Jimmy’s SB run was fueled by an insane running game, amazing defense, and good QB play. If Mac can eventually play that role the Pats will be pretty happy.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Goff as well. Kind of takes lightning in a bottle but that’s how you usually get to a SB- Mac is never going to be Tom Brady.

 

[Rico Guapo]

Outside of teams led by Brady, are there perennial final four teams?

I do the same thing and compare what we Mac to be with what we had with Brady, and that's impossible. The goal for what we want to be with Mac is to be a team that can perennially be a playoff contender, and when the seasons break right, a team that is in the mix for the bye.

Packers with Rodgers have been in 5 of the last 11 NFC Championship games, I'd say they qualify or come close to it.

 

[Shelterdog]

Packers with Rodgers have been in 5 of the last 11 NFC Championship games, I'd say they qualify or come close to it.

It's just so hard to make the championships. The Ravens might possibly be the best run team in the league over the past twenty years--they just haven't ever hit a long term answer at QB, at least not yet--they've had all time greats at multiple positions who had _long_careers for them--and in their 22 year run they won 2 superbowls, lost 2 conference championships, lost earlier in the playoffs 9 times and didn't make the playoffs 9 times. Saints were pretty good, had a damn good QB, strong coach, and made conference championships only 3 times in Brees' 15 years as a QB.

My hope by the way is that Mac Jones turns into "less stats heavy Drew Brees because the Pats would also run a more balanced team-but even if he does does that plus say six more years of BB get you more than one or two conference championship appearances? probably only if you're lucky or just have absolutely splendid luck drafting/signing players.

 

[Bergs]

It's just so hard to make the championships. The Ravens might possibly be the best run team in the league over the past twenty years--they just haven't ever hit a long term answer at QB, at least not yet--they've had all time greats at multiple positions who had _long_careers for them--and in their 22 year run they won 2 superbowls, lost 2 conference championships, lost earlier in the playoffs 9 times and didn't make the playoffs 9 times. Saints were pretty good, had a damn good QB, strong coach, and made conference championships only 3 times in Brees' 15 years as a QB.

My hope by the way is that Mac Jones turns into "less stats heavy Drew Brees because the Pats would also run a more balanced team-but even if he does does that plus say six more years of BB get you more than one or two conference championship appearances? probably only if you're lucky or just have absolutely splendid luck drafting/signing players.

I endorse your entire post, and have been thinking very much the same vis a vis Mac's career.

As a body, there is no group of humans with a more slanted, skewed, and unrealistic idea of what is realistically possible for an NFL franchise than New England Patriots fans. "Spoiled" doesn't begin to encapsulate it*.

* PS I'm not complaining, mind you!

 

[Devizier]

That surprises me; I stand corrected on my recollection of how good Dalton was.

Partly because Dalton was very good-great from years 5-7 although hand injuries derailed him in a major way.

 

[Niastri]

I endorse your entire post, and have been thinking very much the same vis a vis Mac's career.

As a body, there is no group of humans with a more slanted, skewed, and unrealistic idea of what is realistically possible for an NFL franchise than New England Patriots fans. "Spoiled" doesn't begin to encapsulate it*.

* PS I'm not complaining, mind you!

Nothing like drafting the best player of all time in the most important position in team sports in the sixth round to permanently skew your idea of what's possible. Especially when only a year or two earlier your team hired a retread coach with a losing record who turned out to also be the greatest of all time.

Given that, why couldn't Mac Jones be a HoF QB for us? Isn't that how it works?

I hate how much that sounded like a MFY fan.

 

[BaseballJones]

As a body, there is no group of humans with a more slanted, skewed, and unrealistic idea of what is realistically possible for an NFL franchise than New England Patriots fans. "Spoiled" doesn't begin to encapsulate it*.

I think this may be true of younger Pats fans. But there are a lot of us on this board that go back a long ways with this team. I was there when the Patriots were one of the worst teams in NFL history. I have been a fan through a LOT of terrible and mediocre seasons. It wasn't THAT long ago that a wildly successful season meant a trip to the divisional round of the playoffs or once in a while going to a Super Bowl (only to get your doors blown off). Fans like me have a pretty realistic view of things and understand that what happened during the BB/TB era was the greatest run in football history and obviously it is insane to expect anything remotely like that to happen again in our lifetimes (maybe ever).

 

[rodderick]

I just want to say that if Mac indeed turns out to be Drew Brees I hope to god he doesn't play on a run heavy offense.

 

[luckiestman]

I just want to say that if Mac indeed turns out to be Drew Brees I hope to god he doesn't play on a run heavy offense.

I don’t understand the comp. Drew Brees is a superior athlete. That’s not an achievable goal.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I think this may be true of younger Pats fans. But there are a lot of us on this board that go back a long ways with this team. I was there when the Patriots were one of the worst teams in NFL history. I have been a fan through a LOT of terrible and mediocre seasons. It wasn't THAT long ago that a wildly successful season meant a trip to the divisional round of the playoffs or once in a while going to a Super Bowl (only to get your doors blown off). Fans like me have a pretty realistic view of things and understand that what happened during the BB/TB era was the greatest run in football history and obviously it is insane to expect anything remotely like that to happen again in our lifetimes (maybe ever).

I was a senior in high school during the run up to the Bears super bowl. We were grateful to be there. Same against the Pack, although that game seemed like maybe we had a puncher's chance. Still, just glad to be there after seeing 1-15 and 2-14 just too many times.

The idea of being in multiple super bowls, nevermind winning most of them, was unfathomable to a 31yo at the turn of the millennium. We are totally spoiled.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Thoughts on Mac's game yesterday? It is hard to separate him from the shambles that was most of the rest of the team, but I thought he came out well, and if the rest of the offense had also had it together this game might have at least looked a little more competitive.

In the first drive, the Pats find themselves facing a 3rd and 14. Partly because of a false start by FB Jakob Johnson (is that likely to be solely a Johnson mistake or can some of that be attributed to Mac?). Mac drops back, senses the pocket collapse, and scrambles to keep the play alive until he can hit Henry for a 30 yard gain and a first down. That's a great play by Mac. And, at times this year, one of Mac's problems has been sensing pressure. But he did it there.

The next play is a slow developing pass play where Mac hung in the pocket for a while before throwing a perfet pass to a wide open Bolden 20 yards downfield, but Bolden inexplicably (and inexcusably) dropped it.

Then Mac threw a short sideline route to Meyers, but for some reason another Pats receiver (which one?) was between Mac and Meyers and tipped the pass.

That sets up a new 3rd and 10. Again, Mac senses the pressure coming and this time he scrambles and runs. One Bill has a shot at a shoestring tackle from behind near the line of scrimmage, but Mac avoids that and runs for 16 yards and another first.

At this point, to me, this drive is all Mac and he is moving the ball despite subpar work from his teammates.

The next play after Mac's run is a first and 10 from the Buffalo 34, and Mac throws what looks like a great pass to Agholor for what should be a TD, but the Buffalo safety makes a great interception.

Evaluating this play goes beyond my football knowledge. Was Mac's pass late or underthrown? It looked to me like it was right on the money but I'm not an expert. Did Mac fail to look off the safety? I have no idea. Some people on twitter said that Agholor should have gone up for the ball instead of waiting for it and that if he had done so he would have made the play. I don't know - I'd like to know what people here think, esepially those who know what they are talking about.

Anyway, the first drive as a whole to me was Mac doing a whole lot of good and being let down by the team on multiple occasions. I suppose some of that blame could fall on Mac because he is the QB and he is supposed to lead the team, but that feels like a stretch. Part of how you lead is by example and Mac certainly did that.

I call this first drive one of Mac's better drives all season, despite the end, and despite the line (Mac 2 of 6 for 39 yards and a pick). And it speaks well of Mac that he, unlike many of his teammates, came to play.

The second drive was a McDaniels disaster. Down 14-0, he goes 3 and out with run-run-run-punt. Despite Mac playing well on drive 1, and the team not, McD does not give Mac even one chance on this drive. Either Mac is so emotionally fragile that McD does not trust him to regroup after the INT, or McD has his head up his ass.

By the time Mac gets another shot, 13 minutes of game time have gone by since his last drop back, the team is down 20-0, and that first drive feels like a long time ago. Mac's accuracy looks off on his first couple of passes, but the Pats get the benefit of a DPI call. Then Mac gets sacked by Lotulelei, who runs by Mason like he isn't there for the sack. (I wonder if Mason shouted "incoming!" at Mac as he watched Star run by him). Pats the get a delay of game to set up a 3rd and 20. Mac hits Bolden on a short pass that picks up 12. Bolden bobbled this ball but hung on. That brings a 4th and 8 from the 50, and, down 20 and having a defense that cannot stop the Bills, the Pats do the logical thing and punt the ball to set up a long Buffalo touchdown drive. Buffalo obliges.

Now down 27-0 with one time out, Mac hits 4 short passes to advance the ball to the 50, then tries the stupid fake spike thing and is sacked for a loss of 4. Third and long he hits a short pass to Meyers, and then 4th and 5 he hits a great pass to Meyers for 19 to set up a first at the Pats 26. Unfortunately, there a no time outs left so Mac needs to spike the ball with 6 seconds left. BB decides to take the points, because he somehow thinks that taking the points makes some sort of sense. Why not give Mac a shot here, he is the only Patriot making plays?

His interception to lead off the third quarter was on a tipped ball, but it wasn't well thrown. After that, we are in pure garbage time, and Mac leads 2 successful drives out of three, both ending with 4th and goal TD passes to Bourne. Not sure how much threse matter in evaluating him; at this point it was basically an exhibition game in 7 the degree cold.

Anyway, I thought this was good by him, though he wasn't perfect. I'm open to blaming him more for the critical pick at the end of the first drive. But he came in with more compete than most of his teammates and found ways to make some plays while it still seemed like it mattered.

 

[lexrageorge]

I don't believe that end zone pick was Mac's fault at all. I thought it was a great play by Hyde to come up with that ball. Agholor was running in full stride so not sure he could have easily turned around and prevented the interception. And from the replay it's not clear Agholor even saw Hyde, as he seemed to pull his hands in to catch the ball and then falls when his empty hands hit his chest.

Yeah, that first drive by Mac would have been great work had that pick not happened. And then the poor execution on the next 2 drives. It's easy to say they didn't matter given the way the defense played, but those 2 drives in the first half after the interception were both very short, and a 14-7 game may have looked very different.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I don't believe that end zone pick was Mac's fault at all. I thought it was a great play by Hyde to come up with that ball. Agholor was running in full stride so not sure he could have easily turned around and prevented the interception. And from the replay it's not clear Agholor even saw Hyde, as he seemed to pull his hands in to catch the ball and then falls when his empty hands hit his chest.

That's my (non-expert) take as well.

 

[Super Nomario]

I think if you put it where the safety can make a play on it, that's on the QB. Amazing play by Hyde, Mac probably underestimated his range.

 

[rodderick]

I think if you put it where the safety can make a play on it, that's on the QB. Amazing play by Hyde, Mac probably underestimated his range.

Yeah, I still think that's the throw you make versus single coverage, not with a safety lurking there. Ball was a little late, a little short and a little inside. Not terrible, but I've seen a lot of people say it was a great pass and it just wasn't in my opinion. Ball hung in the air for a while. Still, not the kind of mistake you kill a QB over by any stretch.

 

[DJnVa]

Yeah, I still think that's the throw you make versus single coverage, not with a safety lurking there. Ball was a little late, a little short and a little inside. Not terrible, but I've seen a lot of people say it was a great pass and it just wasn't in my opinion. Ball hung in the air for a while. Still, not the kind of mistake you kill a QB over by any stretch.

Much like 95% of plays, unless we know what Mac saw, what the read was, what Buffalo's tendency was, it's tough to say it should or should not have been thrown. That said, jesus, that would have been a hell of a response had they snuck that in. Likely wouldn't have mattered with the historically poor defensive effort but still...

 

[rodderick]

Much like 95% of plays, unless we know what Mac saw, what the read was, what Buffalo's tendency was, it's tough to say it should or should not have been thrown. That said, jesus, that would have been a hell of a response had they snuck that in. Likely wouldn't have mattered with the historically poor defensive effort but still...

It should have been thrown, Agholor had the corner cooked. Just lay it further and to his outside shoulder and it's a TD. I don't fault the decision.

 

[jmcc5400]

Thoughts on Mac's game yesterday? It is hard to separate him from the shambles that was most of the rest of the team, but I thought he came out well, and if the rest of the offense had also had it together this game might have at least looked a little more competitive.

In the first drive, the Pats find themselves facing a 3rd and 14. Partly because of a false start by FB Jakob Johnson (is that likely to be solely a Johnson mistake or can some of that be attributed to Mac?). Mac drops back, senses the pocket collapse, and scrambles to keep the play alive until he can hit Henry for a 30 yard gain and a first down. That's a great play by Mac. And, at times this year, one of Mac's problems has been sensing pressure. But he did it there.

The next play is a slow developing pass play where Mac hung in the pocket for a while before throwing a perfet pass to a wide open Bolden 20 yards downfield, but Bolden inexplicably (and inexcusably) dropped it.

Then Mac threw a short sideline route to Meyers, but for some reason another Pats receiver (which one?) was between Mac and Meyers and tipped the pass.

That sets up a new 3rd and 10. Again, Mac senses the pressure coming and this time he scrambles and runs. One Bill has a shot at a shoestring tackle from behind near the line of scrimmage, but Mac avoids that and runs for 16 yards and another first.

At this point, to me, this drive is all Mac and he is moving the ball despite subpar work from his teammates.

The next play after Mac's run is a first and 10 from the Buffalo 34, and Mac throws what looks like a great pass to Agholor for what should be a TD, but the Buffalo safety makes a great interception.

Evaluating this play goes beyond my football knowledge. Was Mac's pass late or underthrown? It looked to me like it was right on the money but I'm not an expert. Did Mac fail to look off the safety? I have no idea. Some people on twitter said that Agholor should have gone up for the ball instead of waiting for it and that if he had done so he would have made the play. I don't know - I'd like to know what people here think, esepially those who know what they are talking about.

Anyway, the first drive as a whole to me was Mac doing a whole lot of good and being let down by the team on multiple occasions. I suppose some of that blame could fall on Mac because he is the QB and he is supposed to lead the team, but that feels like a stretch. Part of how you lead is by example and Mac certainly did that.

I call this first drive one of Mac's better drives all season, despite the end, and despite the line (Mac 2 of 6 for 39 yards and a pick). And it speaks well of Mac that he, unlike many of his teammates, came to play.

The second drive was a McDaniels disaster. Down 14-0, he goes 3 and out with run-run-run-punt. Despite Mac playing well on drive 1, and the team not, McD does not give Mac even one chance on this drive. Either Mac is so emotionally fragile that McD does not trust him to regroup after the INT, or McD has his head up his ass.

By the time Mac gets another shot, 13 minutes of game time have gone by since his last drop back, the team is down 20-0, and that first drive feels like a long time ago. Mac's accuracy looks off on his first couple of passes, but the Pats get the benefit of a DPI call. Then Mac gets sacked by Lotulelei, who runs by Mason like he isn't there for the sack. (I wonder if Mason shouted "incoming!" at Mac as he watched Star run by him). Pats the get a delay of game to set up a 3rd and 20. Mac hits Bolden on a short pass that picks up 12. Bolden bobbled this ball but hung on. That brings a 4th and 8 from the 50, and, down 20 and having a defense that cannot stop the Bills, the Pats do the logical thing and punt the ball to set up a long Buffalo touchdown drive. Buffalo obliges.

Now down 27-0 with one time out, Mac hits 4 short passes to advance the ball to the 50, then tries the stupid fake spike thing and is sacked for a loss of 4. Third and long he hits a short pass to Meyers, and then 4th and 5 he hits a great pass to Meyers for 19 to set up a first at the Pats 26. Unfortunately, there a no time outs left so Mac needs to spike the ball with 6 seconds left. BB decides to take the points, because he somehow thinks that taking the points makes some sort of sense. Why not give Mac a shot here, he is the only Patriot making plays?

His interception to lead off the third quarter was on a tipped ball, but it wasn't well thrown. After that, we are in pure garbage time, and Mac leads 2 successful drives out of three, both ending with 4th and goal TD passes to Bourne. Not sure how much threse matter in evaluating him; at this point it was basically an exhibition game in 7 the degree cold.

Anyway, I thought this was good by him, though he wasn't perfect. I'm open to blaming him more for the critical pick at the end of the first drive. But he came in with more compete than most of his teammates and found ways to make some plays while it still seemed like it mattered.

I would say that Mac wasn’t the problem and gave signs of being part of the solution going forward.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I thought he was... okay? He made some mistakes, he had some throws that I didn't like the arm strength/zip on. He made some really bad clock management plays. But he also made some good throws, and hung in there under pressure, broke and ran a few times.

This game didn't really change how I see him. He's a guy with a floor of "can start for a team in the NFL" but I need to see a lot more before I'll be confident he's "is a weapon for a playoff team" I mean I look at the 14th playoff QBs and if you could pick 1 for a playoff game, Mac is probably what... 13th... maybe 12th? Mac strikes me right now as basically a league average QB, which is fine for a rookie if you build around him, but he'll need to improve significantly to be a guy who elevates your offense, particularly against playoff type defenses.

 

[RG33]

It feels to me like people are being a bit tough on Mac’s performance this year. He was good, not great, and clearly needs to work on arm strength and to get stronger in general, but for a rookie QB in the NFL, his ability to manage an offense, make secondary reads, audible at the line of scrimmage and lead a team were pretty above average and bode really well for the future. As I’ve said a few other times, give him a full offseason to work on what he now knows he needs to work on, full training camps etc., and I think we’ll know what we have one way or the other pretty early on next year.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I thought he was... okay? He made some mistakes, he had some throws that I didn't like the arm strength/zip on. He made some really bad clock management plays. But he also made some good throws, and hung in there under pressure, broke and ran a few times.

This game didn't really change how I see him. He's a guy with a floor of "can start for a team in the NFL" but I need to see a lot more before I'll be confident he's "is a weapon for a playoff team" I mean I look at the 14th playoff QBs and if you could pick 1 for a playoff game, Mac is probably what... 13th... maybe 12th? Mac strikes me right now as basically a league average QB, which is fine for a rookie if you build around him, but he'll need to improve significantly to be a guy who elevates your offense, particularly against playoff type defenses.

I agree with all of this.

I'll add that there is obvious growth potential in two areas. He'll undoubtedly develop better velocity through mechanics. And he'll get better at reading defenses post-snap with time (he's not terrible there already, but will improve).

I think that both of those areas of improvement are obvious and extremely likely. So while his floor may "can start in NFL", I think that he projects as a top 10 QB with a top 5ish ceiling. That's plenty to work with.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

It seems obvious that there is a lot of room for improvement that is not related to arm strength. Whether and how much he improves remains to be seen. But the takes that focus solely on his arm are ignorning that.

 

[luckiestman]

I agree with all of this.

I'll add that there is obvious growth potential in two areas. He'll undoubtedly develop better velocity through mechanics. And he'll get better at reading defenses post-snap with time (he's not terrible there already, but will improve).

I think that both of those areas of improvement are obvious and extremely likely. So while his floor may "can start in NFL", I think that he projects as a top 10 QB with a top 5ish ceiling. That's plenty to work with.

I don’t see the top 5 ceiling. Who are the top 5 now? Candidates: Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Dak, Allen, Herbert, Burrow.

Mac’s arm is not close to most of these guys and it is wishcasting to think it become so. He sure as hell is not going to run a lot so you have a pocket passer with a weak (relatively) arm, great accuracy, who can see the field. That can be a plus QB but what’s the story you have to tell that makes this a top 5 guy?

He is good at reading the D, he does some things that remind me of my guy, Penny. That guy can win a lot of games.