The OC Search

[tims4wins]

Reiss lays out some candidates

• Bill O’Brien: The former Patriots quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator (2009-2011) projects as a leading candidate who uniquely checks every box. If he could get close pal Doug Marrone (Saints OL coach) to join him, it would be a decisive double dip. O’Brien’s former offensive line coach with the Texans, Mike Devlin, could also fit; he’s currently an assistant OL coach in Baltimore.
• Adam Gase: The former Dolphins and Jets head coach has never worked for Belichick, but there is plenty of mutual respect, he has run a similar offensive scheme and came up under Nick Saban (a Belichick confidant), when he was head coach at Michigan State and LSU. Gase's last OL coach with the Jets, Frank Pollack, now has that position with the Bengals.
• Keenan McCardell: The current Vikings wide receivers coach played for Belichick with the Browns (1992-1995) and has spent the past decade coaching receivers between the NFL and college. A jump to coordinator might be steep, but pairing him with someone with an OL background like Marrone -- whom he coached under in Jacksonville (2017-2020) and has OL/blocking expertise -- could be a nice complement.
• Shawn Jefferson: An associate head coach/receivers coach under Gase with the Jets (2019-2020) and Kliff Kingsbury with the Cardinals (2022), he played for the Patriots in 1996 when Belichick was an assistant on the staff. He has been coaching in the NFL since 2007.
• Kliff Kingsbury: A 2003 sixth-round draft choice of the Patriots, he spent the past four seasons as Cardinals coach before being fired Monday. His offenses are notably different from what New England has run, but his knowledge as a quarterback has transferred to the coaching ranks. Peter Schrager of Fox Sports reported Saturday that Kingsbury has told teams he isn’t interested in coordinator jobs at the moment.
• Doug Nussmeier: Currently serving as the Cowboys' quarterbacks coach, he was Saban’s offensive coordinator at Alabama in 2012 and 2013. He played quarterback (Saints' fourth-rounder in 1994) before entering the coaching ranks, and has two years of coaching tight ends on his resume, so there’s some natural linkage with blocking schemes.
• Nick Caley: The Patriots’ tight ends coach since 2017, he was passed over last year in favor of the Patricia/Judge combination. If Belichick didn’t think he was ready then, the question is if things would be different now.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

That entire list reads like Reiss is just mentally preparing everyone for BOB’s return.

 

[tims4wins]

That entire list reads like Reiss is just mentally preparing everyone for BOB’s return.

Agreed, including the... inclusion of two minority candidates to check the Rooney Rule box.

 

[Justthetippett]

Agreed, including the... inclusion of two minority candidates to check the Rooney Rule box.

How realistic is BOB + Marrone? Haven’t heard that rumor elsewhere. That would also have to be a record for most coaches with HC experience on one staff.

 

[Ale Xander]

wrong thread

 

[8slim]

I, for one, am eagerly anticipating the fan base resuming their unrelenting critiques of an OC who's actually qualified and good. See: McDaniels, Josh; O'Brien, Bill; Weiss, Charlie

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

To quote Marlo Stanfield, "I think that's one of those good problems."

 

[8slim]

To quote Marlo Stanfield, "I think that's one of those good problems."

Agree completely. Just cracked me up reading some people bash McDaniels relentlessly for 10 years.

 

[NDame616]

I, for one, am eagerly anticipating the fan base resuming their unrelenting critiques of an OC who's actually qualified and good. See: McDaniels, Josh; O'Brien, Bill; Weiss, Charlie

Of course it doesn't speak to the entire fanbase, but plenty of GOAT/Game ball threads had lots of "seeing Patricia run the offense makes me appreciate how good McDaniels was"

Grass isn't always greener my friends.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I, for one, am eagerly anticipating the fan base resuming their unrelenting critiques of an OC who's actually qualified and good. See: McDaniels, Josh; O'Brien, Bill; Weiss, Charlie

The quarterback isn't very good, so it's going to be another long season of "is it the OC or is it the QB"

 

[Jimbodandy]

The quarterback isn't very good, so it's going to be another long season of "is it the OC or is it the QB"

If they bring in someone like O'Brien and solidify the offensive line and the offense still sucks, there won't be much debate here.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If they bring in someone like O'Brien and solidify the offensive line and the offense still sucks, there won't be much debate here.

Probably will, people are very bad at figuring out when a line is good. We've had great lines where people complained they sucked because the QB took sacks.
If we have BOB next year and a league average line, Mac will probably still take a ton of sacks and people will say the line sucks and it isn't his fault.

 

[8slim]

We've had great lines where people complained they sucked because the QB took sacks.

When was this? I'm sincerely asking. Brady didn't "take sacks", so are we talking about 2020 or 2021?

 

[Kliq]

Reiss' list just feels like a list of guys in the league that have some connection to Belichick, not based on any real informed sources telling him things.

 

[JM3]

When was this? I'm sincerely asking. Brady didn't "take sacks", so are we talking about 2020 or 2021?

Cassel led the league in sacks taken in '08 with 47 (& followed up with 42 the next season for KC).

Brady took 21 sacks in '07 & 16 in '09. I have no idea if people were complaining about the oLine on here back then, but that shows pretty nicely how big of a difference the QB can make in sacks.

 

[Cellar-Door]

When was this? I'm sincerely asking. Brady didn't "take sacks", so are we talking about 2020 or 2021?

Last year, plus the Cam year yes, also the Cassel year, and the year Jacoby and Jimmy started some games.
Basically this board treats: Sacks= line sucks, when most sacks are the QB's fault.

 

[8slim]

Last year, plus the Cam year yes.

I don't recall people complaining much about the OL last year. Isn't that why we thought the OL would be a strength again in 2022?

 

[Jimbodandy]

Probably will, people are very bad at figuring out when a line is good. We've had great lines where people complained they sucked because the QB took sacks.
If we have BOB next year and a league average line, Mac will probably still take a ton of sacks and people will say the line sucks and it isn't his fault.

Yeah some people probably will. But it won't be a serious debate around here. The fact that the Pats are basically doing a public RFP for an OC indicates that they believe that the problem is organizational in part, not just bad quarterbacking. If they fix that and improve on their OL and the offense still sucks, most of us "unsure still if Mac is the guy or not" will join the rotten tomatoes brigade.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Last year, plus the Cam year yes, also the Cassel year, and the year Jacoby and Jimmy started some games.
Basically this board treats: Sacks= line sucks, when most sacks are the QB's fault.

SMU posted the "whose fault was the sacks" numbers in this forum, probably in this thread. I'd imagine that those numbers will be available next year too.

 

[DJnVa]

Curran is optimistic.

The primary target is former Patriots OC, former Penn State and Texans head coach, former Alabama OC Bill O’Brien. There is unanimity on all sides that O’Brien’s the best person for the job and -- while there are other candidates with merit -- the familiarity ownership and Mac Jones have with O’Brien and O’Brien’s willingness to return mean it would be an upset if he doesn’t get the job.

They want him (Mayo) to know he’s valued in a way that, say, Josh McDaniels didn’t when the team approached him after he’d all but accepted the Colts coaching job in early 2018. McDaniels never heard one word about the team’s future plans for him until he was about to go to Indy. Mayo now knows.

Does that make him the successor to Belichick? A lot can happen between now and when Belichick finally says, "Enough ..." but it appears Mayo would have the inside track. For Belichick, having Mayo take over for him would likely be a source of pride.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Pats' staff would be terrific if it ended up as:

HC/GM: Belichick
AHC/DC: Mayo
OC: O'Brien
D-play caller: S Belichick
ST: Judge
Ernie Adams role: Patricia

Run with that, improve the OL, and let's see how the offense does. If they can't make THAT work, then it's a player issue (particularly at QB).

 

[BigJimEd]

Reiss' list just feels like a list of guys in the league that have some connection to Belichick, not based on any real informed sources telling him things.

Seems to be every list. I don't think anyway has any inside info at this point. We should hear about some interviews shortly though.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Pats' staff would be terrific if it ended up as:

HC/GM: Belichick
AHC/DC: Mayo
OC: O'Brien
D-play caller: S Belichick
ST: Judge
Ernie Adams role: Patricia

Run with that, improve the OL, and let's see how the offense does. If they can't make THAT work, then it's a player issue (particularly at QB).

Doug Marrone as OL coach would be a vast improvement over Yates/Patricia. Marrone and BOB are very close and he's a FOB(friend of Bill).

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

Doug Marrone as OL coach would be a vast improvement over Yates/Patricia. Marrone and BOB are very close and he's a FOB(friend of Bill).

Marrone had a rough ending in Jacksonville, but that 2017 Jags team came within a Stephon Gilmore fingertip of beating the Pats in Foxboro in the AFCCG.

 

[chilidawg]

Probably will, people are very bad at figuring out when a line is good. We've had great lines where people complained they sucked because the QB took sacks.
If we have BOB next year and a league average line, Mac will probably still take a ton of sacks and people will say the line sucks and it isn't his fault.

PFF has the Pats OL as #11 in the league. Maybe they weren’t the biggest part of the problem.

 

[BaseballJones]

PFF has the Pats OL as #11 in the league. Maybe they weren’t the biggest part of the problem.

2021:
- Mac was sacked 28 times in 521 pass attempts (18.6 attempts per sack)
- Pats rushed for 4.4 yards per attempt

2022:
- Mac was sacked 34 times in 442 pass attempts (13.0 attempts per sack)
- Pats rushed for 4.3 yards per attempt

Decreased performance in both passing and running games (obviously only a slight decrease in the rushing, but still, a decrease). It's either play calling or OL play, because everything else was basically the same (same RBs, WRs, TEs, and QB).

 

[Cellar-Door]

2021:
- Mac was sacked 28 times in 521 pass attempts (18.6 attempts per sack)
- Pats rushed for 4.4 yards per attempt

2022:
- Mac was sacked 34 times in 442 pass attempts (13.0 attempts per sack)
- Pats rushed for 4.3 yards per attempt

Decreased performance in both passing and running games (obviously only a slight decrease in the rushing, but still, a decrease). It's either play calling or OL play, because everything else was basically the same (same RBs, WRs, TEs, and QB).

Well PFF had them #9 last year so they slid.

But... you're missing a key thing... QB performance. Sacks are often a QB stat on a number of levels...
1. Poor pre-snap ID
2. Poor decision making post snap.
3. QB taking a sack vs. making throw.

Now playcalling and line can effect it too, but I think at least some of it this year is teams found ways to blitz Mac that he failed to identify, AND... Mac's sack numbers got real bad right when his INT numbers dropped. He ate a lot of balls rather than chance throws. Brady took so few sacks because he identified pressure pre-snap, he beat blitzes consistently, and he was always willing to dump one over taking a hit.

 

[BaseballJones]

Right, but if you have constants A, B, and C, but the result is different, you typically look to see what changes were made, and it turns out, D (the OL) and E (offensive coaches) were the things that changed. I think that those are more likely the culprit than that Mac suddenly forgot how to play QB.

Or the numbers are just random statistical noise, which is also a possibility. I mean, look at Dan Marino's stats. One of the all-time greats, and his numbers range wildly from year to year, as did his sack numbers (sack rate of 3.1% in 1985, 2.0% in 1987, 1.0% in 1988, 4.7% in 1991, etc.).

 

[Cellar-Door]

Right, but if you have constants A, B, and C, but the result is different, you typically look to see what changes were made, and it turns out, D (the OL) and E (offensive coaches) were the things that changed. I think that those are more likely the culprit than that Mac suddenly forgot how to play QB.

Or the numbers are just random statistical noise, which is also a possibility. I mean, look at Dan Marino's stats. One of the all-time greats, and his numbers range wildly from year to year, as did his sack numbers (sack rate of 3.1% in 1985, 2.0% in 1987, 1.0% in 1988, 4.7% in 1991, etc.).

Except those aren't the only things that changed... how teams played Mac changed (starting late in the previous season) and, Mac's INT rate changed, the decisions Mac made changed, you can look at the games this year and see Mac eat balls rather than chance a throw. Sacks are a complex thing, and depend on a lot of factors, but the biggest part generally is the QB, and QB play is not at all constant year to year, especially when you're talking about an inexperienced guy. Treating QB play as some constant is just silly.

Edit- I will say I think the line was worse this year, and the blitz pickups by backs and TEs was probably worse, and the playcalling had less safe throws. I also think Mac got conservative and ate balls, and teams consistently fooled him pre-snap with pressure looks.

 

[lexrageorge]

Unless the majority of the OL suffers season-ending injuries in training camp, and Bill unexpectedly brings back Agholor/Henry/Smith/Bourne as center pieces of the offense again, I will not be giving Mac any excuses in the Game Goat threads. Whether it's Bill O'Brien or another name, next season's QB performance will be entirely on Mac.

 

[8slim]

Re: Mayo, it has been interesting to learn in the past week that he's a LOT more involved in crafting than D than I had understood previously. I'm totally spacing on the analyst who said this on the Toucher & Rich show (maybe Reis?) but it was that while Steve literally "calls IN the plays" that doesn't mean he was always calling the plays, and that Mayo had a lot to do with that. Also that he presented each week's defensive structure to the players and then allowed them to contribute input within their spheres.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

Re: Mayo, it has been interesting to learn in the past week that he's a LOT more involved in crafting than D than I had understood previously. I'm totally spacing on the analyst who said this on the Toucher & Rich show (maybe Reis?) but it was that while Steve literally "calls IN the plays" that doesn't mean he was always calling the plays, and that Mayo had a lot to do with that. Also that he presented each week's defensive structure to the players and then allowed them to contribute input within their spheres.

Not surprising, he was literally an extra coach on the field while playing. He's going to be an amazing HC.

 

[Shelterdog]

Reiss' list just feels like a list of guys in the league that have some connection to Belichick, not based on any real informed sources telling him things.

I think Reiss is the opposite of many reporters in that he is pretty well sourced and (I believe) gets feedback from inside the organization so he doesn't look stupid but he really doesn't flaunt it. He rarely says that he's "hearing" X or Y but I think he actually really does hear X or Y particularly from BB himself. You'll see Reiss on a sunday say "X has been playing well and might be up for more playing time" or "Z has proven to be a valuable backup and may be a candidate for extension and surely enough X is starting for the first time that day and Z gets an extension three days later.

If Riss is putting a name on a list there's a good chance he's heard that's a name to pay attention to.

 

[Saints Rest]

2021:
- Mac was sacked 28 times in 521 pass attempts (18.6 attempts per sack)
- Pats rushed for 4.4 yards per attempt

2022:
- Mac was sacked 34 times in 442 pass attempts (13.0 attempts per sack)
- Pats rushed for 4.3 yards per attempt

Decreased performance in both passing and running games (obviously only a slight decrease in the rushing, but still, a decrease). It's either play calling or OL play, because everything else was basically the same (same RBs, WRs, TEs, and QB).

I'm not sure where to find this stat, but I recall hearing on TV broadcasts, that Rham was near the top of the league at yards after first contact. My sense is that this was a year where a much larger majority of those 4.3 YPA were due to Rham's (and Harris's) ability to generate something from nothing than in previous years (cf. Sony Michel rookie year).

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm not sure where to find this stat, but I recall hearing on TV broadcasts, that Rham was near the top of the league at yards after first contact. My sense is that this was a year where a much larger majority of those 4.3 YPA were due to Rham's (and Harris's) ability to generate something from nothing than in previous years (cf. Sony Michel rookie year).

Harris and Rham were pretty high in 2021 as well. I also kind of think Rham is an amazing RB who sort of sucks at finding the hole but makes up for it by often breaking tackles, where Harris had less post-contact skill, but hits the holes better. I think we saw that a decent amount this year, where Harris would just find the hole, get 3-5 yards, then the next series Rham would go nowhere 2-3 times then break off a big run.

 

[Kliq]

I think Reiss is the opposite of many reporters in that he is pretty well sourced and (I believe) gets feedback from inside the organization so he doesn't look stupid but he really doesn't flaunt it. He rarely says that he's "hearing" X or Y but I think he actually really does hear X or Y particularly from BB himself. You'll see Reiss on a sunday say "X has been playing well and might be up for more playing time" or "Z has proven to be a valuable backup and may be a candidate for extension and surely enough X is starting for the first time that day and Z gets an extension three days later.

If Riss is putting a name on a list there's a good chance he's heard that's a name to pay attention to.

I don't think Reiss isn't plugged-in because he obviously is. Just going by the write-ups though, it sounds more like he is speculating based on what people in football have some connection to Belichick, which is certainly worthy of some informed speculation, but doesn't feel very definitive.

 

[BigJimEd]

I'm not sure where to find this stat, but I recall hearing on TV broadcasts, that Rham was near the top of the league at yards after first contact. My sense is that this was a year where a much larger majority of those 4.3 YPA were due to Rham's (and Harris's) ability to generate something from nothing than in previous years (cf. Sony Michel rookie year).

Somewhat surprisingly Rham seemed to have more room before contact this season. He also had a better year than last season. 5.0 Y/A v 4.6 in 2021
Rham:
2021 - 1.9 YBC/Att; 2.7 YAC/att
2022 - 2.9 YBC/Att; 2.1 YAC/att

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StevRh00.htm (under advanced rushing)

Harris also had more YBC:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarrDa06.htm

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

Not surprising, he was literally an extra coach on the field while playing. He's going to be an amazing HC.

Agree. BB is putting on a full court press to keep Mayo away from all of the other HC interviews and avoid having another team poach the guy that BB and Kraft consider worthy of the Patriot's HC job. If this is the Pat's succession plan, color me thrilled.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

If that is the plan then how many more years of BB are we looking at here? One? Two?

If you were promised the HC role in four years and teams were knocking on your door today would you wait? Four years is a lifetime in the NFL.

I'm just trying to prepare myself mentally for Bill's retirement. That's going to be a sad day.

 

[Shelterdog]

I don't think Reiss isn't plugged-in because he obviously is. Just going by the write-ups though, it sounds more like he is speculating based on what people in football have some connection to Belichick, which is certainly worthy of some informed speculation, but doesn't feel very definitive.

Agreed but i was struck that his list had enough "rooney" candidats on it. It felt to me like his list of who the pats would take based on his deep familiarity with the team and maybe some chatter like "i think we'll be looking for someone with a history here"

 

[JM3]

Agreed but i was struck that his list had enough "rooney" candidats on it. It felt to me like his list of who the pats would take based on his deep familiarity with the team and maybe some chatter like "i think we'll be looking for someone with a history here"

All lists should be Rooney-rule compliant.

 

[Kliq]

I'm not anti-BOB and this is just kind of a vibe feeling, but I think the team would be better off going with a younger offensive mind from a different background than being a BB disciple. Someone like Zac Robinson is intriguing to me for that very reason; someone from a younger, innovative system that is prepared to progress the offense in a way the league is trending. BOB could probably do that too; but it's more exciting if they bring in someone from outside the BB tree.

 

[Justthetippett]

I'm not anti-BOB and this is just kind of a vibe feeling, but I think the team would be better off going with a younger offensive mind from a different background than being a BB disciple. Someone like Zac Robinson is intriguing to me for that very reason; someone from a younger, innovative system that is prepared to progress the offense in a way the league is trending. BOB could probably do that too; but it's more exciting if they bring in someone from outside the BB tree.

If they go with BOB, I’d like to see a younger guy brought in as an offensive assistant or QB coach. They will need to already have a succession plan in place. No idea who that might be but presumably BOB has some of those guys in his orbit, either from Houston or Bama, or Bill can pull from his stable.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

PFF has the Pats OL as #11 in the league. Maybe they weren’t the biggest part of the problem.

Color me extrordinarily skeptical. If, hypothetically speaking, the line can't do certain things so the team stops calling those plays, how does PFF's rate that?

 

[bsan34]

I'm not anti-BOB and this is just kind of a vibe feeling, but I think the team would be better off going with a younger offensive mind from a different background than being a BB disciple. Someone like Zac Robinson is intriguing to me for that very reason; someone from a younger, innovative system that is prepared to progress the offense in a way the league is trending. BOB could probably do that too; but it's more exciting if they bring in someone from outside the BB tree.

In a vacuum this would be my take. In this specific situation, given his experience with both BB and Mac and Mac having already gone through OCs at a rate of one/year, the familiarity and stability that BOB would bring is valuable.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1615737360561410055?s=20&t=5HhX9BBxOk_5gMqmUBQOBQ

 

[tims4wins]

Reiss called that. Obvious Rooney Rule interview, or so it seems.

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/philaperry/status/1615739720499351555?s=46&t=wWli2fCdqrrKcL2a04pmJQ

 

[luckiestman]

Putting this tweet here because of Caley overlap

Jets having meeting with Hackett currently.

Pats Interviewing any Shannahan style guy? It doesn’t seem like it.

View: https://twitter.com/richcimini/status/1615716204118679553?s=46&t=9rBFC0Cuxqgk4_Z-Z_eYAw

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Caley landing the Jets OC job would feel like a real indictment of some or all of BB, Mac, and/or the Patriots offense as a whole. Or it would be a real indictment of the Jets.