The offseason heading into 2018

Devizier

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The Boston Red Sox still have interest in adding a hitter such as J.D. Martinez and seem prepared to wait out agent Scott Boras as he tries to maximize return in a market in which very few teams seem willing to spend big dollars on free agents. As we reported the other day, some agents already are forecasting a bloodbath for veteran free agents because of how some traditional big-spenders such as the Dodgers and Yankees are slashing payroll, and because a number of other teams won’t spend because they are -- you can choose the word you find appropriate -- tanking or rebuilding.
Olney.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Remarkable note at the end:

• So far, the most money negotiated in a contract this winter is $60 million -- over three years to Carlos Santana, by the Phillies. No free agent has gotten a deal of four years or more
Tony Clark got so reamed by the owners. This luxury tax thing has become a salary cap by a slightly different name.

It's a crazy off-season but it seems pretty clear to me that nobody is blowing the bank for JDM and Hosmer is having a hard time finding anyone interested in him.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I wonder how much richer the players would be right now if they had Scott Boras handling the collective bargaining instead of Tony Clark.
Does that follow, though? CBA bargaining and individual contract negotiation seem like pretty different processes, in different contexts and with different kinds and degrees of leverage. I don't know if it's safe to assume that the skills and methods that make Boras dominant in one context would carry over to the other.
 

jon abbey

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I don't know either, but I do know that the players need to strike soon if this CBA isn't drastically reworked. The players aren't getting paid anywhere near what they're worth in the years they're under team control, and now we see that the GMs have wised up to overpaying free agents. And that's not even getting into the obscenely low salaries for minor leaguers...
 

PapaSox

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I think it is the market settling after a long run that was somewhat "what word/phrase that fits" for talent. If we look at it from a reasonable sense who in their right mind would give Price the contract he has now five years ago (assuming all things being equal talent wise). Why would some team consider paying Hosmer $175 million for 7 years? Is JDM really worth $210 million for 7 years? I think the market is saying no. The CBA agreement is placing restraints on big market teams which is allowing mid-market and in a few cases low market clubs to pick up talent. The Angels and Phillies are the big buyers so far. Think about it for a moment. The lead bidders for Hosmer are SD and KC.

Does it mean that players have to settle for $20 million a year rather than $25 - $30 million? I think it is a resounding yes. Will Hosmer take $100/5 years or JDM $125/5? The way the market is trending they may have no choice. Is Cain really worth $20 million a year? What will Darvish or Arrieta accept? They may have to take less then their agents have told them.

We can all say it is because of the talent entering free agency next year. However, I believe they'll also find the market a little soft for mega-contracts. Is Harper really worth $35 million a year? Maybe? Maybe not? If players sign one year deals hoping to jump on next years train they may find themselves in a similar market with far more talent available.

Edit: To take into account what abbey said. I believe the younger players need to receive a lot more for their talents. Should a rookie get $1 million for their 1st year? Can arbitration be opened for greater increases in salary? Sure it can. I think there should be a more liberal pay structure in the minors.
 

MikeM

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I still think people are reading too much into the lack of spending up to this point. With the exception of Darvish, Boras represents the other 4 highest projected contract guys in JDM/Arrieta/Hosmer/Moose, as well as a few of the middle tier guys like Greg Holland, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonazlez.

*That* current and overall stranglehold is probably factoring in more to why it's been a slow play offseason then anything else imo. Which was fairly predictable from the start for that matter, and doesn't necessarily translate into a new post-CBA reality where the money stops flowing towards the upper tier players in FA.
 

jon abbey

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On Christmas last year, the top seven FAs had already all signed. On Christmas this year, none of the top 10 have yet signed. That is more than a Boras effect, that is the first major sign of an overall change in philosophy that I've been saying for a couple years was coming, partly because of the CBA but partly just because it doesn't make sense to pay most vets big money anymore. The game continues to skew younger every year and the CBA hasn't kept up, it's a massive problem and will only get bigger if not addressed somehow (and unfortunately I don't see how it can be if the players don't strike or threaten to).
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Yeah, I'll be very surprised if at the very least we don't hear lots of rumbling about a strike when the current CBA is approaching it's expiration date in 2021. The owners have run over Tony Clark like he wasn't even there.

Clark: No IFA draft! We're drawing the line!

Manfred: At least we're not asking for a hard cap on spending.

Clark: Deal!

Manfred: Look, why don't you take some time to look ov... Wait, what?
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Didn't the recent Disney purchase of BAMtech mean that teams are going to get an extra $50M? That might not change the calculation for the big dogs trying to get below $197M and reset their CBT penalties, but why wouldn't that sort of cash infusion cause the mid-markets to jump into FA more aggressively? JDM et al only need a couple of interested bidders to get those numbers back up to historical market value. Doesn't have to be NY and LA driving the prices up.
 

MikeM

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On Christmas last year, the top seven FAs had already all signed. On Christmas this year, none of the top 10 have yet signed. That is more than a Boras effect, that is the first major sign of an overall change in philosophy that I've been saying for a couple years was coming, partly because of the CBA but partly just because it doesn't make sense to pay most vets big money anymore. The game continues to skew younger every year and the CBA hasn't kept up, it's a massive problem and will only get bigger if not addressed somehow (and unfortunately I don't see how it can be if the players don't strike or threaten to).
So what, are you predicted that more then maybe one of those higher end guys (I've been guessing Hosmer as the guy that signs the lesser one year opt out type deal from the start) is walking out of this winter without getting paid? If so be prepared to have to completely misread the surrounding situation reality for a second time this winter.

Heck, take even an outside Boras guy like Jay Bruce for example. With Santana getting $20m/per (which I believe was top 10 btw), I sure as hell wouldn't be in any rush to sign some some 3/$36 deal being projected in another thread before I at least have that visible JDM contract to then directly compare my current value against.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I think it is the market settling after a long run that was somewhat "what word/phrase that fits" for talent. If we look at it from a reasonable sense who in their right mind would give Price the contract he has now five years ago (assuming all things being equal talent wise). Why would some team consider paying Hosmer $175 million for 7 years? Is JDM really worth $210 million for 7 years? I think the market is saying no. The CBA agreement is placing restraints on big market teams which is allowing mid-market and in a few cases low market clubs to pick up talent. The Angels and Phillies are the big buyers so far. Think about it for a moment. The lead bidders for Hosmer are SD and KC.

Does it mean that players have to settle for $20 million a year rather than $25 - $30 million? I think it is a resounding yes. Will Hosmer take $100/5 years or JDM $125/5? The way the market is trending they may have no choice. Is Cain really worth $20 million a year? What will Darvish or Arrieta accept? They may have to take less then their agents have told them.

We can all say it is because of the talent entering free agency next year. However, I believe they'll also find the market a little soft for mega-contracts. Is Harper really worth $35 million a year? Maybe? Maybe not? If players sign one year deals hoping to jump on next years train they may find themselves in a similar market with far more talent available.

Edit: To take into account what abbey said. I believe the younger players need to receive a lot more for their talents. Should a rookie get $1 million for their 1st year? Can arbitration be opened for greater increases in salary? Sure it can. I think there should be a more liberal pay structure in the minors.
Or maybe analytics have improved to the point that teams realize this is not a premier free agent market while next year is. The team payrolls were always going to move into a more fiscally responsible direction. Big market teams aren’t only saving because of the CBA right now, they’re saving because they don’t need any of the current big free agents and are looking to Harper, Machado, and possibly Kershaw. Buyers of Hosmer and JDM absolutely recognize that.
 

jon abbey

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So what, are you predicted that more then maybe one of those higher end guys (I've been guessing Hosmer as the guy that signs the lesser one year opt out type deal from the start) is walking out of this winter without getting paid? If so be prepared to have to completely misread the surrounding situation reality for a second time this winter..
If that last part means Stanton, not a single person including Yankee management expected that to play out how it did until it actually did, so it's pretty silly to criticize me for that.

And no, I'm not really predicting anything, we'll see how it plays out in the next few months, but I wouldn't be surprised if every major FA except Martinez and Darvish ends up with less than people expected.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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I don't know either, but I do know that the players need to strike soon if this CBA isn't drastically reworked. The players aren't getting paid anywhere near what they're worth in the years they're under team control, and now we see that the GMs have wised up to overpaying free agents. And that's not even getting into the obscenely low salaries for minor leaguers...
It's crazy. Look at Jose Fernandez. Here's Fangraph's estimate of the market value of his labor for the Miami Marlins over his career:

2013: $30.1 million
2014: $12.2 million
2015: $16.7 million
2016: $49.5 million.

His actual earnings during this time period: $490,000; $635,000; $651,000; $2.8 million. $108 million in value going one way, $4.5 million going the other.

Would John Henry ever accept his salary being subject to such arbitrary rules?
 

BigSoxFan

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It's crazy. Look at Jose Fernandez. Here's Fangraph's estimate of the market value of his labor for the Miami Marlins over his career:

2013: $30.1 million
2014: $12.2 million
2015: $16.7 million
2016: $49.5 million.

His actual earnings during this time period: $490,000; $635,000; $651,000; $2.8 million. $108 million in value going one way, $4.5 million going the other.

Would John Henry ever accept his salary being subject to such arbitrary rules?
The MLBPA really needs to shorten the number of years of team control to 4 or 5 but owners will obviously fight that to the end. Six years is a really long time for some of these guys, particularly if you're not some super prospect that gets to the bigs at 22. A guy like Aaron Judge, who nearly won MVP this year, won't be a FA until his age 31 season. Who knows what kind of player he'll be then. I find the strategy of this fascinating. If it were me, I'd probably forego a FA year or two and lock in a big but potentially sub-market contract to guarantee earnings.
 

Wayapman

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Forgive the lack of knowledge, but you guys keep bashing the CBA as being terrible and for the uninformed (like me) baseball players seem to have the best situation of all the major sports.

With the exception of the low salary, team control for the first few years their potential for earnings strikes me as far superior to the salary capped sports. Am I just way off in my perception?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Could the solution be expansion? A case could be made that part of the slow free agent market is an abundance of supply with not enough demand. Certainly that appears to be the case at 1B, perhaps with outfielders too (Martinez in particular). Salary demands of the top guys available don't seem to jive with what teams are willing to pay because there are cheaper, more cost-effective options.

Obviously the harder sell will be for the owners who are seeing record profits, but it seems like it would be an avenue for the MLBPA to push for because they're not likely going to reverse the tide on luxury taxes and draft pools.
 

PapaSox

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It's crazy. Look at Jose Fernandez. Here's Fangraph's estimate of the market value of his labor for the Miami Marlins over his career:

2013: $30.1 million
2014: $12.2 million
2015: $16.7 million
2016: $49.5 million.

His actual earnings during this time period: $490,000; $635,000; $651,000; $2.8 million. $108 million in value going one way, $4.5 million going the other.

Would John Henry ever accept his salary being subject to such arbitrary rules?
I think this is what abbey was getting at. The current CBA seems to be great for the "Stars" and the Teams. And, Free Agency in general. However, for the young player it is not at all compensating them for what they bring to the table.

Edit: And, Free Agency in general.
 

chrisfont9

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I think this is what abbey was getting at. The current CBA seems to be great for the "Stars" and the Teams. And, Free Agency in general. However, for the young player it is not at all compensating them for what they bring to the table.

Edit: And, Free Agency in general.
Does arbitration result in lower salaries? I don't know enough about how they calculate those awards, either they are negotiated between the player and club or set through a hearing. But in general it's not on the open market so you don't get crazy overpays? If that's the difference, then the players would be striking for the right to more crazy overpaying. I can see how six years is too long because the big contract is pushed toward covering years post-peak, when money is more likely wasted.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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When the CBA was completed, I was rather surprised that the LT threshold was not increased more significantly, and more quickly. The players' share of overall revenue has decreased quite a bit over time, and the new CBA did nothing to reverse this trend. And the new changes to the second tier CBT thresholds, and increased penalties for exceeding the thresholds, seem to be having the desired effect, from the owners' standpoint, of putting a drag on FA salaries. The MLBPA seemed to put a big priority on changing the QO system, as they saw this as significantly impacting FAs. Although some changes were made, it seems they underestimated the impact of the other changes, particularly to the CBT. I remember Boras and the other agents not being happy about this at the time, and it seems they probably had a better understanding of how this would impact the FA market and player salaries than Tony Clark did.

In terms of changes to the CBA, I would expect that the owners would strongly resist any reduction in the time it takes for a player to reach free agency. They will not want to give up their years of control, which they will see as necessary to recoup their investment in player development - not just these specific players who make it and progress in the big leagues, but their costs for all the players they draft and develop but who never make it to the big leagues or stay long enough to qualify to become FAs. And it will be hard to get the players to strike over this - the millionaire vets won't want to give up their paychecks, and the low salary rooks won't want to do anything to jeopardize their chances of making it. But I think the MLBPA could make some advances by increasing salaries for pre-arb players, with a significant increase in the minimum salary (and maybe even automatic escalators based on plate appearances for batters, and IP or appearances for pitchers) - that way, they could set up a somewhat higher baseline for players entering the arbitration years. Changes to the CBT system would be somewhat more complex, and the likelihood of that will depend a lot on issues like revenue sharing and how the owners themselves feel about the system. But I'd think they'd at least have to try to link (index) the tax thresholds to changes in revenue so that they players don't keep losing ground.
 

Hawk68

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I don't know either, but I do know that the players need to strike soon if this CBA isn't drastically reworked. The players aren't getting paid anywhere near what they're worth in the years they're under team control, and now we see that the GMs have wised up to overpaying free agents. And that's not even getting into the obscenely low salaries for minor leaguers...
With all due respect, this is how free markets work.

The players and the owners negotiated the CBA, and to my knowledge they were good faith negotiations. Some players: Crawford, Panda and Rameriz come to mind, were beneficiaries of poor management decisions. And now the pendulum swings in favor of fiscal restraint.

Hard for me to feel sympathy for a group with league minimum compensation many times the median income of American workers.

I rather consider how my team might improve the play on the field for the enjoyment of their fan base.
 

PapaSox

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I think it was the opening quote you posted from Olney. It seems to be more of a legal, economic, labor discussion. So, I'll try a tad to bring it back to the off-season heading into 2018.

I'm not for or against JDM just the money and years. If we could get him for reasonable money it would be great. No, I don't know what reasonable is. As we are already over the luxury tax that is not the goal. I think we are try to not exceed the upper limit of $237 million (Is this called CBT?). If we sign JDM then in all likelyhood that will be exceeded. However, someone like Bruce for 3 years for about $16-17 million/year would allow us to remain under the CBT. We would also have some money to get a UT-IF or LH-RP but not both.

If its decide by Henry to exceed the CBT this year with the understanding that Panda's and Allen's money ($19 million) come off the books next year then it may be acceptable for a year. Assuming Hanley does not get the AB to trigger his option in theory there is another $22 million of the books. That would provide money for arbitration cost and to potentially keep Pomeranz and Kimbrel. However, it greatly depends on if we are paying JDM or Bruce how far we can go with arbitration demands and the resigning of FA.
 

charlieoscar

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Hard for me to feel sympathy for a group with league minimum compensation many times the median income of American workers.
I don't know how old you are but I definitely am one of the older people on SoSH and I have also spent a lot of my life studying baseball history. For a long, long time I was all for the players because they had been treated like chattel by the owners over the years. Even when a few of the superstars began making "large" salaries most players had to work in the off-season. Eventually, with a union the players gained the advantage, which did not go over well with the owners. Today, the owners and the players are making far more money than they need. Who's to blame? The fans who keep buying the tickets and over=priced beer and refreshments; paying for television broadcasts. But then the voters in this country can't stop believing all the lies told to them by politicians trying to get re-elected or elected, so how can you expect them to realize the power they have to control prices?
 

In my lifetime

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It's crazy. Look at Jose Fernandez. Here's Fangraph's estimate of the market value of his labor for the Miami Marlins over his career:

2013: $30.1 million
2014: $12.2 million
2015: $16.7 million
2016: $49.5 million.

His actual earnings during this time period: $490,000; $635,000; $651,000; $2.8 million. $108 million in value going one way, $4.5 million going the other.

Would John Henry ever accept his salary being subject to such arbitrary rules?
However, quoting the fangraphs data as market value for salary assumes that the same system is intact. In other words, it is currently a tiered system. Pre-arb the salary is strictly limited, then the arb years increase earning potential and then free agency changes shifts the market to a bidding process. If a new system existed, a different equilibrium would be found. Yes star players in their 1st 6 years would make much more, but then the current free agents would find a lot more players available and their market would be depressed from current levels. And if there was no period of time when players were controlled, teams would only offer contracts to minor leaguers if the contract gave the team control for a number of years any way. Why sign and develop a potential good major leaguer, if he could just shop his services to other teams after the season?

Baseball players have very little to complain about as far as salary structure including the fact they are guaranteed. On the other hand, football players certainly could and should do better salary-wise or at least guarantee their salaries in a profession where the average length of a career is somewhere around 4 years.
 

j-man

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yeah this baseball offseason sucks

they needs to be a floor of 100 mil i am talking about Miami KC Oak pitt tb etc maybe contact teams that refuse to have a 100 mil dollar payroll
 

chawson

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With all due respect, this is how free markets work.
While the majority of players who don’t make the majors earn the equivalent of $6.34 an hour in their summer-only contract position playing in the minors.
 

pinkunicornsox

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We do have labor regulations though and according to a quick google search the federal minimum wage is 7.25. In Rhode Island where the Pawsox play it is 9.60, so if the 6.34 figure is correct then that is problematic.
 

Tim Salmon

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We do have labor regulations though and according to a quick google search the federal minimum wage is 7.25. In Rhode Island where the Pawsox play it is 9.60, so if the 6.34 figure is correct then that is problematic.
MiLB is still subject to an antitrust exemption, and MLB has taken the position that the Fair Labor Standards Act’s wage provisions don’t apply to player salaries. Lawsuits challenging the FLSA interpretation are pending in federal court — I believe they’re still fighting over whether the cases should be certified as class actions.
 

chawson

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Curious where the $6.34 number comes from?
It isn’t issued as an hourly wage, but the minor league salary of $1,100 per month would work out to be $253.85/week. Spread over 40 hours, that’s $6.34.

Playing minor league ball isn’t a traditional 40 hr/wk job (and players are only paid during the season), but I’d count it as a full-time commitment with travel and training. Either way, it’d certainly prevent players from getting a second job.

AAA players are paid slightly more. Figures are from this 2014 report.
 
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sean1562

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$1100 a month is insane. For companies earning as much as MLB franchises, thatvis disgraceful. I’m not saying they should make 10k a month, but 1100 is unbelievable
 

grimshaw

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According to this, http://www.sportslawblogger.com/baseball/salary-information/minor-league-salary/It's actually $1150 for the short season teams only which is only a few months.
$1300 for low A
$1500 for high A
$1700 for AA
$2150 for AAA and it increases a lot each year

Not that $1500 is jack shit, but if you can get to high A, $1500 with free rent and road meal money, it is at least borderline.

It's the lower level guys who try and stick it out who are screwed. Though one other thing to keep in mind is that the average signing amount for the last pick of the draft is still around $18,000 according to this article. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/12/1/16715898/amateur-draft-bonus-analysis-slot-mlb

Anyway - back to our regularly scheduled off season talk.
 
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Plympton91

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In other words, yes, exactly how free markets work.
Yeah, Adam Smith wrote all about the competition enhancing features of a minimum 6 year reserve clause that could be 9 years or more depending on when you’re added to the 40 man roster.
 

Kun Aguero

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It isn’t issued as an hourly wage, but the minor league salary of $1,100 per month would work out to be $253.85/week. Spread over 40 hours, that’s $6.34.

Playing minor league ball isn’t a traditional 40 hr/wk job (and players are only paid during the season), but I’d count it as a full-time commitment with travel and training. Either way, it’d certainly prevent players from getting a second job.

AAA players are paid slightly more. Figures are from this 2014 report.
Isn't there also a meal allowance, not to mention lodging included also, albeit it might only be when on the road trips? I am not saying there isn't an issue, but that figure is not accurate, either. I would imagine the lodging is pretty close to $700 to $1,000 a month additional. Plus meal money too? If you want to break it down to an hourly figure, you simply have to include everything that goes with it.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Isn't there also a meal allowance, not to mention lodging included also, albeit it might only be when on the road trips? I am not saying there isn't an issue, but that figure is not accurate, either. I would imagine the lodging is pretty close to $700 to $1,000 a month additional. Plus meal money too? If you want to break it down to an hourly figure, you simply have to include everything that goes with it.
$25 a day for meals. It's why so many of them subsist on McDonald's and other fast food chains.

Chris Cotillo‏Verified account @ChrisCotillo
Source: Ex-Cubs/Rangers prospect Mike Olt has agreed to a minor-league deal with the Red Sox. Has been with CHC, CWS, SD and BOS organizations since 2015.
He played for the Sea Dogs last year, so this means he's not leaving as a minor league free agent. He was decent last year (111 wRC+) but a far cry from the prospect he was with the Rangers.
 

Sampo Gida

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According to this, http://www.sportslawblogger.com/baseball/salary-information/minor-league-salary/It's actually $1150 for the short season teams only which is only a few months.
$1300 for low A
$1500 for high A
$1700 for AA
$2150 for AAA and it increases a lot each year

Not that $1500 is jack shit, but if you can get to high A, $1500 with free rent and road meal money, it is at least borderline.

It's the lower level guys who try and stick it out who are screwed. Though one other thing to keep in mind is that the average signing amount for the last pick of the draft is still around $18,000 according to this article. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/12/1/16715898/amateur-draft-bonus-analysis-slot-mlb

Anyway - back to our regularly scheduled off season talk.
Keep in mind this is for 5 months a year. For ST and playoffs, AzFL , etc I assume its just meal and lodging allowance. Players expected to do a lot offseason workouts and I suppose most of them work in the offseason or play winterball to supplement income.
 

Red Right Ankle

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Isn't there also a meal allowance, not to mention lodging included also, albeit it might only be when on the road trips? I am not saying there isn't an issue, but that figure is not accurate, either. I would imagine the lodging is pretty close to $700 to $1,000 a month additional. Plus meal money too? If you want to break it down to an hourly figure, you simply have to include everything that goes with it.
Eh, the lodging isn't compensation and shouldn't be included. It's a business expense for the club in order to have road games. It's not replacing the guy's rent at home and they aren't paying his rent for him when he's away.

The meal money is arguably countable since it could be said to be replacing or at least supplementing the player's own spending. That said, typically per diems aren't considered compensation in the same way salary is - people who get per diems for business travel don't add them to their salary when asked how much they get paid since they only get them because they are traveling for the company. They wouldn't be added for minimum wage calculations either, I don't believe.
 

nvalvo

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Players off the 40-man don't get paid a salary at ST, either, just a living stipend.

The fundamental issue is that an industry with high ten figures in revenue and only a few thousand employees — there are 1,200 players on 40-man rosters, and something like 7,500 total players in affiliated ball; a few dozen front office workers per franchise between baseball ops, marketing, etc., and then a few thousand stadium staff league-wide — should pay better, and if they don't choose to do so voluntarily, Congress should threaten their anti-trust exemption unless they recognize a MiLB players union.

The whole league could raise the average salary among minor leaguers to $40,000, which would be enough for even organizational players who didn't get a big bonus to eat better and train year round for less than the Red Sox will pay David Price. They could probably get to $60,000 for less than somebody will pay Harper or Trout.

I bet we'd see more Daniel Nava types, fringe-y prospects who held on long enough to get a shot.
 

PapaSox

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Eh, the lodging isn't compensation and shouldn't be included. It's a business expense for the club in order to have road games. It's not replacing the guy's rent at home and they aren't paying his rent for him when he's away.

The meal money is arguably countable since it could be said to be replacing or at least supplementing the player's own spending. That said, typically per diems aren't considered compensation in the same way salary is - people who get per diems for business travel don't add them to their salary when asked how much they get paid since they only get them because they are traveling for the company. They wouldn't be added for minimum wage calculations either, I don't believe.
I think it is now taxable income in the new Republican tax bill.
 

charlieoscar

Member
Sep 28, 2014
1,339
At the lower levels you may find families offering room and board to minor leaguers. Also, many of them share living quarters around their ball club's town to keep individual costs down. Twenty-five dollars a day doesn't go far when eating out but if they contribute it to the family they stay with or split it with their roommates and do their own cooking, they can eat well and maybe have money left over.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
I was researching an article and stumbled on some information about Nick Castellanos that I thought was worth sharing. I know someone (chawson, maybe?) has mentioned his hard hit balls (95 mph or higher) before. He's 12th in all of MLB in that stat last season (via Baseball Savant). What I also found that was extremely interesting was that he had more balls hit with a launch angle between 19-26 degrees than any other batter with 450 or more PAs last year. He was at the top of that list.

Why is that important? Well, Andrew Perpetua goes into detail here (great read). JD Martinez is 42nd on the list, FWIW. But the most productive balls in play have a launch angle in that range so, combined with his rate of hard hit balls, I think I'm on the breakout bandwagon. The next range of launch angles tracked are 26-39 degrees (all via xstats.org if anyone is interested enough to poke around), which is where most home runs will be found. J.D. Martinez leads that list, which probably isn't a shock. Castellanos is 27th (again out of hitters with 450 PA or more), which is still an excellent showing.

If the Tigers are willing to package him in order to move Miguel Cabrera, I think I'd be willing to eat that albatros of a contract to get him. Castellanos a monster waiting to happen. Of course, if I'm Detroit, he's off limits for virtually any price.

Speaking of Miggy, he was 70th on the list for balls with a launch angle between 26 and 39 degrees. He was 36th on the list for 19-26 degrees and 38th on the list of balls hit 95 mph or higher, so a bounce back next year wouldn't be surprising even if the back end of that deal is assured to be horrendous.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
At the lower levels you may find families offering room and board to minor leaguers. Also, many of them share living quarters around their ball club's town to keep individual costs down. Twenty-five dollars a day doesn't go far when eating out but if they contribute it to the family they stay with or split it with their roommates and do their own cooking, they can eat well and maybe have money left over.
Seriously? In what other industry would you consider this acceptable? Would it be ok for Dunkin Donots to violate minimum wage laws if they get their employees a cot in somebody’s basement to sleep on?

Get real. I’m as conservative a Republican as is allowed to exist on SOSH, and I’ve got no problem calling this situation for minor leaguers utter, complete horseshit. The owners are being court-sanctioned slumlords, and the players and their agents are hypocrites for not bringing minor leaguers into the union.

There should either be a minor league players’ union or the amateur draft, international bonus limitations,and the reserve clause should be history.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
I was researching an article and stumbled on some information about Nick Castellanos that I thought was worth sharing. I know someone (chawson, maybe?) has mentioned his hard hit balls (95 mph or higher) before. He's 12th in all of MLB in that stat last season (via Baseball Savant). What I also found that was extremely interesting was that he had more balls hit with a launch angle between 19-26 degrees than any other batter with 450 or more PAs last year. He was at the top of that list.

Why is that important? Well, Andrew Perpetua goes into detail here (great read). JD Martinez is 42nd on the list, FWIW. But the most productive balls in play have a launch angle in that range so, combined with his rate of hard hit balls, I think I'm on the breakout bandwagon. The next range of launch angles tracked are 26-39 degrees (all via xstats.org if anyone is interested enough to poke around), which is where most home runs will be found. J.D. Martinez leads that list, which probably isn't a shock. Castellanos is 27th (again out of hitters with 450 PA or more), which is still an excellent showing.

If the Tigers are willing to package him in order to move Miguel Cabrera, I think I'd be willing to eat that albatros of a contract to get him. Castellanos a monster waiting to happen. Of course, if I'm Detroit, he's off limits for virtually any price.
What’s incredible is that Castellanos hits those marks without ever popping up. The only other power guy who can pull that off to that extreme is Joey Votto.

From 2015-17, Castellanos’s IFFB rate was 1.7 percent — third in MLB. He strikes out more than average (23.7), but his K+IFFB rate (to make up a stat) is a very good 25.4 percent.

In the same time, Todd Frazier struck out in 22.1 percent of PAs and popped up in another 17.8 percent of them. Stanton struck out in 26.9 percent of PAs and popped up in 14.4 percent.

He hits the ball hard and doesn’t give away outs.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,763
I was researching an article and stumbled on some information about Nick Castellanos that I thought was worth sharing. I know someone (chawson, maybe?) has mentioned his hard hit balls (95 mph or higher) before. He's 12th in all of MLB in that stat last season (via Baseball Savant). What I also found that was extremely interesting was that he had more balls hit with a launch angle between 19-26 degrees than any other batter with 450 or more PAs last year. He was at the top of that list.

Why is that important? Well, Andrew Perpetua goes into detail here (great read). JD Martinez is 42nd on the list, FWIW. But the most productive balls in play have a launch angle in that range so, combined with his rate of hard hit balls, I think I'm on the breakout bandwagon. The next range of launch angles tracked are 26-39 degrees (all via xstats.org if anyone is interested enough to poke around), which is where most home runs will be found. J.D. Martinez leads that list, which probably isn't a shock. Castellanos is 27th (again out of hitters with 450 PA or more), which is still an excellent showing.

If the Tigers are willing to package him in order to move Miguel Cabrera, I think I'd be willing to eat that albatros of a contract to get him. Castellanos a monster waiting to happen. Of course, if I'm Detroit, he's off limits for virtually any price.

Speaking of Miggy, he was 70th on the list for balls with a launch angle between 26 and 39 degrees. He was 36th on the list for 19-26 degrees and 38th on the list of balls hit 95 mph or higher, so a bounce back next year wouldn't be surprising even if the back end of that deal is assured to be horrendous.
I looked into Castellanos when he was mentioned too. He's got two more years of arbitration, projected at $7.6 next year, and I'd be totally happy with him as a DH for that time (his fielding is terrible); his hitting profile looks great for Fenway.

But taking on Miggy's contract to get him? That's insane. You're talking a $192 million obligation due to a 35 year old with a bad back. Two years of Mike Trout isn't worth that. I'd take maybe $50 of it, but past that why wouldn't you just go after Martinez at market rates?
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
I looked into Castellanos when he was mentioned too. He's got two more years of arbitration, projected at $7.6 next year, and I'd be totally happy with him as a DH for that time (his fielding is terrible); his hitting profile looks great for Fenway.

But taking on Miggy's contract to get him? That's insane. You're talking a $192 million obligation due to a 35 year old with a bad back. Two years of Mike Trout isn't worth that. I'd take maybe $50 of it, but past that why wouldn't you just go after Martinez at market rates?
If you give them Hanley and extend Castellanos (who seems a better outfielder than third baseman), it could be worth it. Especially if they throw in Fulmer or Norris.

This board’s already had this argument, but I believe the stats that say Miggy isn’t done. DH yes, done no.

The Tigers paid $30M of Fielder’s salary in the Kinsler trade. Certainly some number is agreeable.
 
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