The offseason heading into 2018

Tyrone Biggums

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Wonder how much a year of Cutch would cost? Cole just went for a song more or less. Have the DH be a rotation if necessary.
 

chawson

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Wonder how much a year of Cutch would cost? Cole just went for a song more or less. Have the DH be a rotation if necessary.
Like the idea in principle, but we’d have to give up Groome to beat whatever the Giants offer, which almost surely starts with Tyler Beede.
 

pdub

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Would McCutchen solve our power issues, though? Sure, we'd have a deeper and more well-rounded lineup, but he's not a power hitter in the vein of, say, JDM. I might bite if DD didn't already deplete the hell out of the farm, but not sure I would in this case.
 

MikeM

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Setting aside the question whether Reed preferred the Midwest... the Red Sox are rapidly running out of cap space to fit under the $237MM secondary threshold, at which point the penalties start becoming really punitive under the new CBA.

Assuming Mookie wins his arbitration hearing and the Sox sign Martinez for $25MM per year or more, there’s not enough salary room to add $8.5MM for a 4th bullpen arm with closer experience. Not without losing draft position, and an extra reliever just isn’t worth it.
Seeing Reed go at 2 years at under $10m/per and without a speculated Sox interest is indeed a curious one. Or at least leaves me buying more into the Sox having a legit and focused interest in JDM then I was previously.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Would McCutchen solve our power issues, though? Sure, we'd have a deeper and more well-rounded lineup, but he's not a power hitter in the vein of, say, JDM. I might bite if DD didn't already deplete the hell out of the farm, but not sure I would in this case.
I mean he’s never going to be confused for Stanton but 28 homers would have been tops on the Sox. I could be wrong on that part. He’s not JDM but he will cost a lot less next season.
 

MikeM

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Wonder how much a year of Cutch would cost? Cole just went for a song more or less. Have the DH be a rotation if necessary.
As much as people might like that type of surface fit on paper, those pesky and surrounding baseball politics probably get in the way of it in reality. Slotting him in LF full time is one thing, but from the player perspective it would be a pretty dirty FO move on both sides to put the guy like that in a DH'ing role leading into his first (and maybe only) big crack at free agency.

That said I don't see us matching up well given the Pirite's tendency to like fairly cheap/controllable and ready-to-play now pieces. Other then the potential Bradley fit if DD gets desperate coming down the off-season stretch.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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As much as people might like that type of surface fit on paper, those pesky and surrounding baseball politics probably get in the way of it in reality. Slotting him in LF full time is one thing, but from the player perspective it would be a pretty dirty FO move on both sides to put the guy like that in a DH'ing role leading into his first (and maybe only) big crack at free agency.

That said I don't see us matching up well given the Pirite's tendency to like fairly cheap/controllable and ready-to-play now pieces. Other then the potential Bradley fit if DD gets desperate coming down the off-season stretch.
Nah, the Pirates would want more cheap years than what Bradley has left.

Since they've restocked from the Astros farm system, it's hard to know what exactly they'd want. But it'd probably be true prospects with some AA/AAA experience, of which the Sox system appears pretty depleted at the moment.
 

PapaSox

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I'm not sold on McCutchen being the right one for the team. As MikeM stated it would not be in his best interest to DH when he is looking at FA next season. And, Buzzkill I think is right about what the Pirates would be looking for.

I'd rather go after someone like Frazier or Moustakas who could offer coverage at 3B, possibly at 1B and DH. Frazier might take 2 years at McCutchen money while Moustakas would need a little bit more. Both will eat into Hanley's time but it may help to keep Hanley rested. He may not get his option triggered but he'd play and be on a winner. There is roughly 800 AB to split up between Hanley, Devers, Mitch and whom ever they sign.

I know JDM is the target and preferred but Frazier or Moustakas would fill the void and provide backup at 3B/1B for far less money. We may actually be able to sign a LH-RP like Watson or Wood.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'd rather go after someone like Frazier or Moustakas who could offer coverage at 3B, possibly at 1B and DH. Frazier might take 2 years at McCutchen money while Moustakas would need a little bit more. Both will eat into Hanley's time but it may help to keep Hanley rested. He may not get his option triggered but he'd play and be on a winner. There is roughly 800 AB to split up between Hanley, Devers, Mitch and whom ever they sign.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're getting at, but if we're talking about sharing time between DH, 1B, and 3B, that's more like 2000 PA to split up.

Also, I don't see Moustakas signing anywhere where he's not assured of being the full time starter at 3B. With Devers around, any starting-caliber 3B is going to be hesitant at best to sign here. The notion of splitting one's time between 2-3 positions is a hard sell for a free agent who by all rights is deserving of a single starting position. Frazier might be an easier sell on that concept, but if he's looking at it as a pillow type deal to try to get one more score next winter, he's not going to be keen on being a platoon player either.

This isn't a rotisserie league and it isn't a video game. Ideas like these fit better in those realms where you're not dealing with individual egos and feelings.
 

MikeM

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Moustakas stopped making any potential sense the moment we clogged up our incoming roster flexibility with the Moreland signing.

That said I'm still genuinely interested to see where his market actually comes in at though, and which might fall way short of early surface speculation guesses. Like Bruce he could end up being one of the better value buy pieces this FA class had to offer imo.
 

nvalvo

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Wonder how much a year of Cutch would cost? Cole just went for a song more or less. Have the DH be a rotation if necessary.
I understand everyone is saying that the return for Cole was light, but I'm not sure it really was. For Cole's arb2 and arb3 seasons, Pittsburgh received:
  • 5 years of control of a 24 year old SP who has been okay in his early cups of coffee.
  • A high-end 3B prospect in Colin Moran, with serious offensive potential and 6 years of control remaining.
  • A pre-arb RP with a 13 K/9 in Michael Feliz, and
  • A good OF prospect in Jason Martin, who just had a very good season between A+ and AA as a 21 year old.
That's pretty good for Cole, given his last two seasons. All of these players should be okay to good MLB players, with Moran in particular having considerable upside — he just hit 18 HR in 350 PA. People saying it's a light package must be comparing it, I think, to the prospects we gave up for Sale, but that's because we got an extra year of a better pitcher in Sale.

(I'd love to acquire McCutchen if JDM chooses elsewhere, but I'm not sure we really have a ton to trade.)
 

MikeM

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I understand everyone is saying that the return for Cole was light, but I'm not sure it really was. For Cole's arb2 and arb3 seasons, Pittsburgh received:
  • 5 years of control of a 24 year old SP who has been okay in his early cups of coffee.
  • A high-end 3B prospect in Colin Moran, with serious offensive potential and 6 years of control remaining.
  • A pre-arb RP with a 13 K/9 in Michael Feliz, and
  • A good OF prospect in Jason Martin, who just had a very good season between A+ and AA as a 21 year old.
That's pretty good for Cole, given his last two seasons. All of these players should be okay to good MLB players, with Moran in particular having considerable upside — he just hit 18 HR in 350 PA. People saying it's a light package must be comparing it, I think, to the prospects we gave up for Sale, but that's because we got an extra year of a better pitcher in Sale.

(I'd love to acquire McCutchen if JDM chooses elsewhere, but I'm not sure we really have a ton to trade.)
Agreed with the above.

Sometimes people get too caught up in the dream big potential, and the general notion that teams simply stop caring about their MLB roster if/when the path to possible contention isn't a clear one. I think the Pirates did ok for what their always small market minded approach appeared to be aiming at there.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Seeing Reed go at 2 years at under $10m/per and without a speculated Sox interest is indeed a curious one. Or at least leaves me buying more into the Sox having a legit and focused interest in JDM then I was previously.
Or maybe they feel Smith offers just as much if not more and they have a good read on Thornburg recovering well from surgery?
 

MikeM

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Or maybe they feel Smith offers just as much if not more and they have a good read on Thornburg recovering well from surgery?
Maybe, which was a possibility I pointed out at the beginning of this offseason. Hence the buying more there instead of actually buying into it completely. At least coming from my previous stance that was strongly guessing DD was done with major lineup changes, and that this supposed 5 year offer we have on the table is more resigning Lester'y legit then anything else.

I still do find the second tier concern connection interesting though. Especially considering Reed might of had some longer term appeal there as well, since I fully expect us to let a no setbacks and soon to be very expensive/risky Kimbrel walk after the season.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Smith and Kimbrel are both relatively career-neutral in terms of their LHH/RHH splits. So planning to use them as the key 8th/9th inning guys makes a lot of sense.

That said, I think the lack of interest in Reed comes from carrying 10 RHP relievers on the 40-man already. If the Sox acquire any reliever before the season starts, they should be targeting a LHP good for a clean inning even against multiple RHH. Someone like Jake McGee would have been real nice at about the same AAV, but Reed would have been relatively redundant.
 

MikeM

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I don't know if I would go as far as to label Reed relatively redundant. Under a scenario where we don't sign JDM, DD is essentially left bringing back last year's team up a half season of Devers, down his deadline upgrades, and with another who knows what to expect out of Price (and maybe Pedroia) wild card.

Considering the arguable effort that was made last year to get us under the LT for one season, splurging a little bit this winter on a reasonable RP deal that at least left our bullpen looking a little more reliable/deeper wouldn't have been an unreasonable call imo.
 

Manramsclan

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Moustakas stopped making any potential sense the moment we clogged up our incoming roster flexibility with the Moreland signing.

That said I'm still genuinely interested to see where his market actually comes in at though, and which might fall way short of early surface speculation guesses. Like Bruce he could end up being one of the better value buy pieces this FA class had to offer imo.
I agree, and unfortunately his value will likely benefit the New York Yankees who have a gaping hole at third.
 

Rich Garces Belly

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Assuming Mookie wins his arbitration hearing and the Sox sign Martinez for $25MM per year or more, there’s not enough salary room to add $8.5MM for a 4th bullpen arm with closer experience. Not without losing draft position, and an extra reliever just isn’t worth it.
I see Reed as more than a 4th bullpen arm (who are the top 3?), and am not as optimistic as you are that a JDM signing is inevitable. Reed could have helped the team this season and been Kimbrel insurance in 2019. With Reed off the market I hope the Red Sox look at Watson and Duensing.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I see Reed as more than a 4th bullpen arm (who are the top 3?), and am not as optimistic as you are that a JDM signing is inevitable. Reed could have helped the team this season and been Kimbrel insurance in 2019. With Reed off the market I hope the Red Sox look at Watson and Duensing.
Reed would have been, easily, the second best arm in the pen if he had signed with the Red Sox.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Reed would have been, easily, the second best arm in the pen if he had signed with the Red Sox.
First, volatility of relievers makes this statement difficult to predict in advance. Here's a FIP chart, anyway.

Addison Reed is redundant in the sense that what he might be expected to do, reliever-not-starter Joe Kelly also might be expected to do, for cheaper. As might a healthy Tyler Thornburg or Carson Smith. In fact, Smith might be expected to do even better.

Reed would likely be the bullpen's 3rd-4th best arm, but given reliever volatility, not necessarily worth the cost premium it would have taken to lure him away from his preferred Midwest. He could be the 2nd best RHP arm in the bullpen in 2018, of course, but he could almost just as easily be the 5th, without even slipping too much.

Now, spending that same general level of money on Jake McGee would not have been redundant, because the Sox have no one who throws nearly that well port-side in relief. But the offense is higher priority right now, as DDski probably feels (rightly) that the pen can be bolstered as the season progresses.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I don't agree that it's redundant because I don't agree that there isn't a significant difference in what to expect going forward. I simply don't understand why anyone trusts Joe Kelly in late inning high leverage situations. 2017 Joe Kelly looks a lot like career Joe Kelly, IMO.

Career: 4.08 FIP, 4.10 xFIP
2017: 3.49 FIP, 4.07 xFIP with a career low 7.3% HR/FB.

The only year he was close to that rate was 2013 at 8.9% when his xFIP was 3.65 as a reliever, but his HR/FB was 13.9% (compared to 6.6% as a starter). So there's no consistency in keeping the ball in the yard more as a reliever and when you strip HR luck out of the equation, he really wasn't any different a pitcher last year.

Said differently, he still can't throw strikes consistently. I don't want him pitching the 8th inning of close games. I'd be very comfortable with Addison Reed, though. Luckily, this is something they can fix around the deadline, as they did with Addison Reed last season.

Edit: I also don't see how you can confidently argue anyone in the Red Sox pen is better than Reed, with the obvious exception of Craig Kimbrel.

My objection to Kelly aside, Barnes is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide and I don't buy his home numbers as sustainable. Smith is coming off of an injury that has an impact on control longer than any other aspect of pitching, and he's a pitcher who relies on control to be good. Thornburg should be considered toast until he defies the odds and gets back to throwing dominant innings, given the injury he's trying to come back from.

After that who can you throw into the conversation with a straight face? Brandon Workman? Meh.
 

chawson

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A cheap ass deal for Peter Moylan would look nice at this point. He’s a Ziegler-type, death on RHH, gets one of the highest soft contact rates in the league.

He’s always played for league-minimum on bad teams but can be a pretty valuable weapon if deployed correctly, especially looking for a GIDP. Thornburg struggles against RHH even when healthy and we don’t know what to expect from Smith.
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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Edit: I also don't see how you can confidently argue anyone in the Red Sox pen is better than Reed, with the obvious exception of Craig Kimbrel.

My objection to Kelly aside, Barnes is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide and I don't buy his home numbers as sustainable. Smith is coming off of an injury that has an impact on control longer than any other aspect of pitching, and he's a pitcher who relies on control to be good. Thornburg should be considered toast until he defies the odds and gets back to throwing dominant innings, given the injury he's trying to come back from.

After that who can you throw into the conversation with a straight face? Brandon Workman? Meh.
I'll tell you why I can argue that might be better than Reed in 2018: because relievers are volatile.

Kimbrel likely will be better than Addison Reed this season, and -- as I linked to above -- the Sox already have 3 other guys who could relatively easily be as good as, or better than, Addison Reed this year, based on their track records and projections. Sure, there are injury questions about Smith and even more about Thornburg; there are performance questions about Kelly. But there are also injury and performance questions about Reed simply because he's a free agent relief pitcher. That is to say, if Reed's performance suffers a downward spike in 2018 then it's true that any RHP reliever currently on roster, including Austin Maddox and Heath Hembree, could be better than Reed next season. Even Bye-Bye Barnes.

Except Taylor. He won't. Or Buttrey. He won't either, though he might be better than Reed in another 2 years.

And while the fact of reliever volatility, by itself, doesn't mean it wouldn't have been good to sign Reed in a vacuum, it does mean that other factors come into play when it comes to assessing whether his would have been a good signing for this team.

There are already 10 RHP relievers on the 40-man roster, and the Sox are already looking at broaching the $237MM second threshold because of poor contracts handed out in Free Agency. Is it worth it for the Red Sox to drop 10 spots in the first round of the draft, in order to get Addison Reed when you've got 7 other legitimate MLB-ready arms for the bullpen? To you it might be justified, but I'm arguing that it probably isn't. As 2017 demonstrated, the best late-inning relievers a team rolls out in October might just be found in its rotation.

And most importantly -- adding an 11th RHP reliever doesn't appear to fit how DDski does business. He's not building a team with Cherington's or Theo's model. I can almost guarantee either of them would have been happy to sign Bruce and Reed, and then call it a day. Well, Theo surely would have tried to pull a 3-way trade to pry Stanton off the Marlins, too. But the point generally stands.

And that point is, the Red Sox are a DDski team now, and it shows. His reputation is built on signing superstars rather than role players, on creating teams with a strong lineup but a questionable bullpen that needs to be addressed mid-season, and on gutting the farm to acquire big-name players. Guess what he's done?

At this point, we as fans have to look at the Detroit Tigers over the last 10 years or so, and accept that's the direction the Red Sox are headed. DDski built some really good teams in Detroit before their window closed. The 2018 Sox also look like one of his really good teams.

Hopefully, this time around there won't be some random team coming out of nowhere to slam shut the window when it's widest open.
 

chawson

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And most importantly -- adding an 11th RHP reliever doesn't appear to fit how DDski does business. He's not building a team with Cherington's or Theo's model. I can almost guarantee either of them would have been happy to sign Bruce and Reed, and then call it a day. Well, Theo surely would have tried to pull a 3-way trade to pry Stanton off the Marlins, too. But the point generally stands.
Good post. Mostly agree except for the above. Jay Bruce seems quite far from Theo’s kind of player. And to the larger point, DD is far more the “sign this guy and call it a day”-type GM than Theo or Ben, who generally operated with a lot of complexity.
 

PapaSox

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Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're getting at, but if we're talking about sharing time between DH, 1B, and 3B, that's more like 2000 PA to split up.

Also, I don't see Moustakas signing anywhere where he's not assured of being the full time starter at 3B. With Devers around, any starting-caliber 3B is going to be hesitant at best to sign here. The notion of splitting one's time between 2-3 positions is a hard sell for a free agent who by all rights is deserving of a single starting position. Frazier might be an easier sell on that concept, but if he's looking at it as a pillow type deal to try to get one more score next winter, he's not going to be keen on being a platoon player either.

This isn't a rotisserie league and it isn't a video game. Ideas like these fit better in those realms where you're not dealing with individual egos and feelings.
The 800 AB is the potential number of AB that could be available to the extra guy across three positions - some from 3B, some from 1B and some as DH. Assuming injury or potential down play from one of the three. Also includes potential PH. Assuming 4.5 - 5 AB/game across 162 games. So roughly 2400 across all three positions.

I'd have to agree with your logic on Moustakas. However, I'm not sure there are many spots open and the season is quickly approaching. I was thinking more along the lines of a one year deal. Frazier will likely sign for a year with the Yankees. He may go for two years if he thinks the DH role may be available after the season.

Someone mentioned the Yankees for Moustakas but I'm not sure they're looking for a long term commitment as they have a potential prospect they are hoping steps in to the role.

Not sure is was worthy throwing out the rotisserie league or video game comment. It's really not helping the conversation. Your comments concerning Moustakas were well enough state to show the error of my ways.
 
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Plympton91

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I think if they can bring Moustakis in on an affordable 3 or 4 year contract that makes more sense than 5 or 6 years for JDM, they should go ahead and do it. Devers is not a good 3Bman at all, and ihas all of 2 months of experience above AA. If Devers ends up platooning with Ramirez at DH and spelling Moustakis at 3B that’s a great role to break in a rookie. While Ramirez gets ABs spelling Moreland at 1B. And Moustakis gives them the LHed power they desperately miss.

That could work easily. 1900 total PA over the 3 positions, 350 for Ramirez, 450 for Moreland, 500 for Devers, 600 for Moustakis. I wouldn’t rule it out if JDM doesn’t enter the fold sooner rather than later.
 

keninten

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Setting aside the question whether Reed preferred the Midwest... the Red Sox are rapidly running out of cap space to fit under the $237MM secondary threshold, at which point the penalties start becoming really punitive under the new CBA.

Assuming Mookie wins his arbitration hearing and the Sox sign Martinez for $25MM per year or more, there’s not enough salary room to add $8.5MM for a 4th bullpen arm with closer experience. Not without losing draft position, and an extra reliever just isn’t worth it.
Just curious but aren`t the Sox at $191,115,000 now. According to Cot`s they have Mookie at $9 so that could change but they also have added in Rusney at $11,771,429. His salary shouldn`t count towards the cap unless he wasn`t grandfather in the new CBA.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Just curious but aren`t the Sox at $191,115,000 now. According to Cot`s they have Mookie at $9 so that could change but they also have added in Rusney at $11,771,429. His salary shouldn`t count towards the cap unless he wasn`t grandfather in the new CBA.
For cap purposes, you're looking at the wrong tab if it includes Castillo (there are two: "MLB Boston 18" and "Red Sox Tax Tracker 18"). The Sox still have to pay his salary, so it has to be accounted for, but it does not count against the cap unless he's added back to the 40-man roster.

The Tax Tracker tab has them (w/ benefits estimated) at $194,784,600 without Betts, who is headed to an arbitration hearing where his salary will either be determined at $7.5M or $10.5M. If we assume the Red Sox win arbitration with Betts and can sign Martinez in the neighborhood of $25M AAV, that puts them at about $227M (or $231M if Betts wins). So somewhere between $6-10M in wiggle room for addressing any other roster needs this winter or during the season. And that's not accounting for the potential that they trade someone like Holt or Leon if there's a roster crunch in the spring and save a million or two there.

BP is right...$8.5M for a reliever that is somewhat redundant (setting aside debates over quality for a moment) is a bit untenable.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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This should probably go in it's own thread, but I'd love to see the Sox make an olive branch extension offer to Betts that would pay him his $10.5M this year and lock him in for 2 FA years. Tell him we think he's worth it now and we want him to be a core part of this team. I get that he's a Boras guy, but there's a decent chance that there's a not unreasonable dollar and years figure that could secure Betts' prime while still giving him a chance to cash in big in his late 20s.

IMO, this should be as big a priority this offseason as adding another big bat, for 3 reasons: (1) I don't want to lose Mookie after his arb years when he's only 29; (2) I fear the salary inflation we're likely to see with next year's FA class; and (3) I don't want the Sox to have to pay him $40M/year for 7 years into his mid-30s.
 

Salem's Lot

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This should probably go in it's own thread, but I'd love to see the Sox make an olive branch extension offer to Betts that would pay him his $10.5M this year and lock him in for 2 FA years. Tell him we think he's worth it now and we want him to be a core part of this team. I get that he's a Boras guy, but there's a decent chance that there's a not unreasonable dollar and years figure that could secure Betts' prime while still giving him a chance to cash in big in his late 20s.

IMO, this should be as big a priority this offseason as adding another big bat, for 3 reasons: (1) I don't want to lose Mookie after his arb years when he's only 29; (2) I fear the salary inflation we're likely to see with next year's FA class; and (3) I don't want the Sox to have to pay him $40M/year for 7 years into his mid-30s.
Betts is not represented by Scott Boras. His agent is Steve Veltman at Legacy.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/mookie-betts-moves-to-the-legacy-agency.html
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This should probably go in it's own thread, but I'd love to see the Sox make an olive branch extension offer to Betts that would pay him his $10.5M this year and lock him in for 2 FA years. Tell him we think he's worth it now and we want him to be a core part of this team. I get that he's a Boras guy, but there's a decent chance that there's a not unreasonable dollar and years figure that could secure Betts' prime while still giving him a chance to cash in big in his late 20s.

IMO, this should be as big a priority this offseason as adding another big bat, for 3 reasons: (1) I don't want to lose Mookie after his arb years when he's only 29; (2) I fear the salary inflation we're likely to see with next year's FA class; and (3) I don't want the Sox to have to pay him $40M/year for 7 years into his mid-30s.
Signing Betts to an extension as you suggest would assuredly put the team in a position where they likely couldn't afford to pay for a big bat like JD Martinez without being in danger of exceeding the secondary luxury cap. As has already been pointed out in this thread, they're likely to be within $10M of that cap should they sign Martinez right now. Extending Betts now likely eats up whatever breathing room they may have under the cap.

Let's say they sign Betts to a five year deal right now (buying out 3 years of arbitration and two years of free agency), I think we're talking somewhere minimum 5/100M before he comes to the table. If they buy out his arbitration years for roughly what he may actually get in arbitration...let's call it $10, $14, and $17M...and tack on buying out two FA years at, say, $25M per year and that's about $90M. So his cap number this year goes up from $10.5 if he wins arbitration to a minimum of $18-20M in a long term deal. There goes that $10M cushion.
 

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Yes, I understand that. I'd be ok with DD holding the line hard on JDM and pivoting to a Betts extension if we can't get Martinez on a very good deal (say, 5/$120-125M, max). If JDM will sign for that, then I guess DD can wait a year on Betts, staying under $237M now, until after the Hanley deal has (hopefully) expired. But they'd need to aggressively negotiate with Betts next offseason before those top FAs start inking market-altering deals.
 

OCD SS

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Extensions typically aren’t inked until closer to ST, when the free agents have already signed, though. Once Mookie has played his season & put up his numbers, what reason does he have to to sign something quickly, before the rest of the FAS move the market?
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Extensions typically aren’t inked until closer to ST, when the free agents have already signed, though. Once Mookie has played his season & put up his numbers, what reason does he have to to sign something quickly, before the rest of the FAS move the market?
Hence the quandary I think the Sox are in here. They want to sign JDM, but not so much that it hamstrings future moves. If they do sign JDM, they can't extend Betts now without exceeding the $237M CBT penalties threshold, unless they can jettison HR's (or others') salaries, which seems unlikely. They can wait until next season, but you're right, Betts will be advised to wait to see what mammoth deals get signed to see where the market is heading, and he'll potentially cost much more to extend.

I think Betts is a better and more important long term building block for this team than JDM. It could be that, all these things considered, there's no practical or likely way to sign JDM and extend Betts without opening up gaping holes elsewhere (e.g. not signing or replacing Pom or Porcello or Kimbrel when their deals are up, maybe not extending X, etc.). It's why I raised it now. If forced to choose, I'd rather they choose extending Betts now. Especially since Betts might put up numbers closer to 2016 than 2017 this year, pushing his value even further north.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
They need to get Porcello, Ramirez, and Pablo off the books and replaced with low salaried quality. Hopefully Wright comes back healthy shows he can replace 3 year average Porcello, allowing them to trade his overpriced 2019. And if Chavis can consolidate his AA success in AAA this year, they can waive bye bye to Hanley with him stepping into that role. Those developments would free up some money for improvements elsewhere.
 

Sampo Gida

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Aug 7, 2010
5,044
Extensions typically aren’t inked until closer to ST, when the free agents have already signed, though. Once Mookie has played his season & put up his numbers, what reason does he have to to sign something quickly, before the rest of the FAS move the market?
I thought extensions by teams with CBT concerns usually get announced in April or later like AGon, Beckett, Pedroia. That way they dont influence the current year.
 

edoug

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Jul 15, 2005
6,007
Giving up on Porcello is way too premature. Whether you think he deserved the Cy Young or not, he deserved strong consideration for the award. And it's not like he won it in 2007.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
4,662
One that sticks out is Brentz's somewhat rosy projection of a .318 wOBA. That's what Hanley put up last year.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
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Sep 20, 2005
8,105
One that sticks out is Brentz's somewhat rosy projection of a .318 wOBA. That's what Hanley put up last year.
And Castillo at .307...does he have any hope of breaking out of purgatory?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
And Castillo at .307...does he have any hope of breaking out of purgatory?
It would take quite a cataclysmic turn of events from him to brought back to Fenway in a Red Sox uniform. I honestly think his only hope is to play out of his mind in Pawtucket and hope another team sees it and wants to take the risk of making a trade. He carries an $10.3M cap hit through 2020 ($35.5M in actual money). That's an expensive gamble to trade for if any AAA success he has doesn't carry over.
 

chawson

Member
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Aug 1, 2006
4,662
And Castillo at .307...does he have any hope of breaking out of purgatory?
Nope. A comparably skilled outfielder with a .305 projected wOBA is Jarrod Dyson, and he's probably looking at two years, $12 million in this market. Castillo's at 3/$35.5M as soon as he gets called up.