The Outfield '15 version

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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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No, not the shitty 80's pop band you chumps!  The Sox '15 version!  How's it forming?  Before the offseason even began, the Sox had already dramatically improved the outfield by the addition of Castillo and the emergence of Betts.  Those two ended up also creating a jam for playing time out there even before adding Hanley.  After a little dealing they turned one Yoenis into a starting pitcher (possibly the Sox no. 1 next season) and things began to look a little more clear.... as it stands today I think we'll see the starting OF look like:
 
LF Ramirez
CF Castillo
RF Vic
 
Revolving OF (and occasional 2B):  Betts (although I think Vic will either end up injured or traded by the end of April at the latest and we'll see him f/t RF)
5th OF: Nava
 
I think Craig will be dealt and we'll have JBJ ready to be called up after the Vic injury as late inning defensive replacement for Hanley and occasional starter.
 
As it is I think defensively it looks very strong across the board in Fenway, but weak in LF in away games (perhaps seeing more Betts away from Fenway), obviously.  Offensively there's still some questions marks.  Mookie was outstanding but is still pretty green and could turn in an Xander-like stretch of struggle at some point.  Nava is Nava and Vic could be injured.  Rusney is also a question mark even though his winter games look good and his performance after coming up looked fantastic.  I'm more optimistic on this group then I was on the '14 version.
 

Drek717

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Yazdog8 said:
I think they see Betts as  FT starter and leadoff. Betts is RF and Vic is 4th outfielder or trade bait.
I would agree with this.  I think Vic still has significant value, but at this point there have to be serious concerns about him making it through even the majority of the season as a full time starter.  As a regularly used 4th OF he could produce some nice rate stats and potentially actually make it through the season.
 

santadevil

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I assume this will be JBJ's make or break season with the Sox.
 
How much playing time will he actually see though?
Will he get 300 PA's this year?
 

Mighty Joe Young

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santadevil said:
I assume this will be JBJ's make or break season with the Sox.
 
How much playing time will he actually see though?
Will he get 300 PA's this year?
If we assume that Craig is traded then the OF is Hanley/Castillo/Betts with Vic and Nava backing up. But .. If Victorino is traded as well would people suddenly start doubting the OF depth? I think that's the only scenario in which JBJ gets significant playing time. And then, only if he shows serious signs of finding his batting stroke in Pawtucket.

I think an ideal scenario is Victorino shows he's healthy AND JBJ rakes In AAA .. Then Vic gets traded and JBJ comes up and is the 4th OF .. Or JBJ goes in a trade for pitching help at the deadline.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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santadevil said:
I assume this will be JBJ's make or break season with the Sox.
 
How much playing time will he actually see though?
Will he get 300 PA's this year?
 
He'll get at least 300 PAs, but most of them will be in Pawtucket.
 
I'm not convinced Victorino can be relied upon to play at all, let alone be a guy who can capably be the 4th outfielder.  Penciling him in as a starter seems a real stretch.
 
I think the most likely scenario is Ramirez-Castillo-Betts as the starters, and some combination of Craig, Nava, and Holt taking the 4th/5th OF spots (with Craig and Holt also getting games in the infield).
 

lxt

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Actually, if Victorino is healthy I think he'll get RF. Hanley is locked into LF as I can't see him playing any other role out there. Betts, because of his lead-off potential will get CF. Castillo will be the roaming OF. Bradley will be in the minors and Nava will be floating around with his left-handed bat.
 
If Victorino is not healthy then I believe Castillo will get CF and Betts RF.
 

MakMan44

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With all respect to Vic and his nearly 6 win season, I think Mookie is a better player right now and Castillo might be too. If he looks great in ST, yeah maybe he starts the season in RF but right now, I think he's 4th on the OF depth chart.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
1. They did not sign Castillo to 7/72 to be a 4th OF. He has a starting job (whether in CF or RF) until he plays his way out of it.
 
2. If Victorino is healthy, it's conceivable they start the year with him as the starting RF just to pump up his value for an early trade. If he is keeping Mookie in Pawtucket or on the bench past mid-May, something has gone terribly wrong.
 
3. Trotsky, I'm not sure why you think LF defense will be weaker in away games. As an OF, mobility should be Hanley's strong suit. He's not as fast as he used to be, but his speed is still probably roughly average for a LF. I would expect him to be a better defender on the road than at Fenway, at least at first.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Seeing a Ramirez in LF makes me tingley. That being said, I think its a no-brainer that it's Ramirez in left, Castillo in center and Mookie in right with Vic and Nava coming off the bench. That leaves the immortal BROCK HOLT and Hanigan to be the other bench guys. Craig is as good as gone unless they deal Nava. Craig and Nava both fill the 1B/OF role. Vic can play any OF position and is a switch hitter. Unless he's completely crippled he's a very expensive perfect 4th OF.
 

foulkehampshire

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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
If the Sox think there is a realistic chance that Craig can return to 2011-2013 level Craig, I have a hard time believing he's going anywhere.  He's still only 30 years old, and could take over at first for Napoli in 2016.  Victorino really seems like the odd man out to me.
 
 
Neither Craig & Victorino are going to be happy with a limited role, but at least Shane can hit from the left side and is a naturally good defender. Nava is too valuable for what he brings to the table and he's still cheap. He's also willing to play 1B; would probably be passable defensively with enough reps.
 
Very hard imagining a role for Craig with the current roster. 
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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foulkehampshire said:
 
 
Neither Craig & Victorino are going to be happy with a limited role, but at least Shane can hit from the left side and is a naturally good defender. Nava is too valuable for what he brings to the table and he's still cheap. He's also willing to play 1B; would probably be passable defensively with enough reps.
 
Very hard imagining a role for Craig with the current roster. 
Shane cannot hit from the left side.
 
They could get Craig enough at bats to make him happy enough.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Shane cannot hit from the left side.
 
In fact Craig has hit RHP better over his career than Victorino (.761 to .729)--though Craig has to prove he can hit anybody anymore before this is all that relevant.
 
The only advantages healthy Victorino has over healthy Craig are outfield defense and baserunning.
 

Merkle's Boner

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I'm really surprised about people's thoughts on Vic. I don't see why there would be any reason to think he won't be healthy after the long recovery period he's had. And I don't see why, if he's healthy, he's not the best and most proven option. Seems risky to have two-thirds of your starting OF be unproven at the ML level.
 

MakMan44

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Merkle's Boner said:
I'm really surprised about people's thoughts on Vic. I don't see why there would be any reason to think he won't be healthy after the long recovery period he's had. And I don't see why, if he's healthy, he's not the best and most proven option. Seems risky to have two-thirds of your starting OF be unproven at the ML level.
Mookie had a .920 OPS in AAA and followed that up with a .812 OPS in the show. I don't think he has anything left to prove in the minors and keeping him down there when Shane clearly has no future with the team seems silly. I'd let teams see that he's healthy in ST, and ship him off for salary relief afterwards. I disagree with the notion that he's the best option for RF, though not the proven part. 
 

Fireball Fred

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Basically, a lot of ifs out there. Hanley in LF is the closest to a sure thing - and it's a new position for him. Castillo and Betts are promising rookies; we've heard that song before. Victorino and Craig were very good two years ago, but couldn't contribute last year. Nava's always iffy.

My impression is that the Sox are expecting to start Ramirez-Castillo-Betts, which suggests doubts about Victorino's health - if he plays like '13, nobody's going to beat him out. At the same time, they're not going to bet it all on two rookie outfielders.

Despite the ifs, these are good assets. I suspect things will sort themselves out in spring training, and not before. If Craig and Victorino both look good, the former is the more likely to be traded (unless a need develops at 1B or DH).
 

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Fireball Fred said:
If Craig and Victorino both look good, the former is the more likely to be traded (unless a need develops at 1B or DH).
This doesn't make sense to me.  Victorino has no future with the team, while Craig could take over for Napoli in 2016.  If they both look good, it would seem to increase the likelihood of this, making Craig less expendable. 
 

Paradigm

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It seems pretty clear to me that Hanley, Rusney, and Mookie are the long-term outfield for this team. 
 
There are literally no other positions for them to play. Pablo is at third, Xander is at short, Dustin is at second. First base doesn't count, but it's not for guys like this who can, you know, play defense.
 
I love Victorino and think his 2013 season was abso-fucking-lutely fantastic, but the team clearly knows they can't rely on him for a full season. And sure, it's a little disappointing, because he's such a good guy and when he's healthy he's so damn good. So maybe Mookie struggles and hey! We have Victorino ready to slide into right field in May. He's the fourth outfielder. He has more value as a backup and bench guy and clubhouse leader than as a trade chip, because I doubt anyone's going to give up meaningful value for him due to his injury concerns.
 

jasvlm

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It seems that the consensus is that Castillo will play CF.  I think the Sox optimal alignment is probably Hanley in LF, Betts in CF and Castillo in RF.  Castillo has a better arm than Betts, and having 2 guys with CF range in those 2 spots makes lots of sense.  Betts was fine as a CF, and is assured of playing every day as the leadoff hitter.
VIctorino slots in as the 4th OFer, with Nava and Craig battling it out for a 5th OF/1b backup spot.  The final trades have yet to transpire, which might shake up the OF mix, but those 3 OFers play for sure.  Victorino, coming off back surgery, will have to play his way back into shape.  He'd be an ideal trade candidate if he were healthy, and he still might be once the season starts and he'll get to play some.  Castillo might be the guy who ends up getting farmed out in a roster crunch situation, giving him more time at AAA to learn to hit pro pitching, but he appeared ready to play in the majors.
I'd love for JBJ to re-establish his value as a CF, but he'll have to do that at AAA as well.  He still might have a role on the 2015 Red Sox, but not until the 2nd half, and only then if he's raking at AAA.  The man can flat out catch the ball, but that alone won't keep him in the show.
 

MikeM

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 If Victorino is healthy, it's conceivable they start the year with him as the starting RF just to pump up his value for an early trade. If he is keeping Mookie in Pawtucket or on the bench past mid-May, something has gone terribly wrong.
 
 
 If Victorino is healthy and still on the roster by the time April rolls around...I believe this is the most likely scenario we see play out. Assuming he does not get moved before then...even in the event we have to wait until he shows up to spring gtg and then eat some salary to make it happen. 
 
Say what you want about the age old debate on whether players should be expected to do whatever while honoring their contract, and how much that could/would/should impact a perception on how this organization treats it's players. I'd agree Betts should be our guy entering 2015. But yeah, in this case i ultimately just can't see Ben regulating Victorino to full time 4th outfielder status in his free agency year. If there is any reason to believe he can still play at a high level, it will be Victorino's job to lose in ST imo. 
 

Hyde Park Factor

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MikeM said:
If Victorino is healthy and still on the roster by the time April rolls around...I believe this is the most likely scenario we see play out. Assuming he does not get moved before then...even in the event we have to wait until he shows up to spring gtg and then eat some salary to make it happen. 
 
Say what you want about the age old debate on whether players should be expected to do whatever while honoring their contract, and how much that could/would/should impact a perception on how this organization treats it's players. I'd agree Betts should be our guy entering 2015. But yeah, in this case i ultimately just can't see Ben regulating Victorino to full time 4th outfielder status in his free agency year. If there is any reason to believe he can still play at a high level, it will be Victorino's job to lose in ST imo.
Vic will have plenty of opportunities to showcase himself in ST, and they will cut him early early enough to catch on with another team if it comes to that. It seems highly unlikely that they give Vic (or anyone, for that matter) AB's during the season as a courtesy to him because it's his free agent year.
 

Merkle's Boner

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Vic is the best RF option. There is no doubt in my mind that, if healthy, he can patrol that expanse better than anyone. It's unfortunate they have two rookies with similar skill sets whose best OF position is CF. I don't think they are in a hurry to have both Mookie and Castillo get 600 ABs after last season's rookie issues.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Savin Hillbilly said:
1. They did not sign Castillo to 7/72 to be a 4th OF. He has a starting job (whether in CF or RF) until he plays his way out of it.
 
2. If Victorino is healthy, it's conceivable they start the year with him as the starting RF just to pump up his value for an early trade. If he is keeping Mookie in Pawtucket or on the bench past mid-May, something has gone terribly wrong.
 
3. Trotsky, I'm not sure why you think LF defense will be weaker in away games. As an OF, mobility should be Hanley's strong suit. He's not as fast as he used to be, but his speed is still probably roughly average for a LF. I would expect him to be a better defender on the road than at Fenway, at least at first.
 
It has to do more with the move to a new position more than anything else.  Despite the wall, it's a very small outfield so I was figuring that that would hide any weaknesses that would be amplified in larger LF's.  Although, sure.... I could see that opposite being the case also.
 

Hyde Park Factor

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Merkle's Boner said:
Vic is the best RF option. There is no doubt in my mind that, if healthy, he can patrol that expanse better than anyone. It's unfortunate they have two rookies with similar skill sets whose best OF position is CF. I don't think they are in a hurry to have both Mookie and Castillo get 600 ABs after last season's rookie issues.
I would amend that to say the Vic that we knew... we have no idea if that is the guy who will show up to ST or not. Without knowing what we have in him, it's hard to pencil him in for regular season AB's simply as a courtesy on Ben's part.
 

Merkle's Boner

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Hyde Park Factor said:
I would amend that to say the Vic that we knew... we have no idea if that is the guy who will show up to ST or not. Without knowing what we have in him, it's hard to pencil him in for regular season AB's simply as a courtesy on Ben's part.
I guess that's true. But it's not like he just had a shitty season, a la Craig (although injury may have played a part there as well). The guy was legitimately hurt and basically missed the season. I don't see why he wouldn't be healthy this year and again, if healthy, I don't see why we shouldn't expect a solid 3 WAR-like season out of him. I mean, he posted a 6 WAR season in 2013. While it's conceivable that both Castillo and Mookie post a 3 WAR, I think it's asking a lot of two rookies, one of whom has had like two months of minor league experience.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Merkle's Boner said:
I guess that's true. But it's not like he just had a shitty season, a la Craig (although injury may have played a part there as well). The guy was legitimately hurt and basically missed the season. I don't see why he wouldn't be healthy this year and again, if healthy, I don't see why we shouldn't expect a solid 3 WAR-like season out of him. I mean, he posted a 6 WAR season in 2013. While it's conceivable that both Castillo and Mookie post a 3 WAR, I think it's asking a lot of two rookies, one of whom has had like two months of minor league experience.
 
It's important to keep in mind that Victorino isn't returning from a knee injury or a shoulder or anything somewhat typical of ballplayers.  He's coming back from back surgery.  There are no guarantees that even if he's healthy and pain-free, he'll be back to what he was in 2013 or prior.  He may never be the same player again.
 
I think the odds of him putting up a 3 WAR season in 2015 are about the same as Castillo or Betts.
 

JimD

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The best outcome for the Red Sox is if both Shane Victorino and Allen Craig show up healthy in spring training and prove capable of playing major league baseball at a high level again.  At a minimum, they have a damn good RF for 2015 in Victorino, with the bonus that he would be a valuable trade candidate.  The CF job goes to whoever in the Castillo/Betts/JBJ trio earns it in ST, with the other two going down to AAA.  Craig would the 4th OF as well as backup 1B and DH.  I'm as excited about Rusney and Mookie as anyone but the 2015 Red Sox are built to contend and if Victorino and Craig give them the best overall chance to win, then they need to be on the team.  Rusney's and Mookie's time will come.
 

The Boomer

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JimD said:
The best outcome for the Red Sox is if both Shane Victorino and Allen Craig show up healthy in spring training and prove capable of playing major league baseball at a high level again.  At a minimum, they have a damn good RF for 2015 in Victorino, with the bonus that he would be a valuable trade candidate.  The CF job goes to whoever in the Castillo/Betts/JBJ trio earns it in ST, with the other two going down to AAA.  Craig would the 4th OF as well as backup 1B and DH.  I'm as excited about Rusney and Mookie as anyone but the 2015 Red Sox are built to contend and if Victorino and Craig give them the best overall chance to win, then they need to be on the team.  Rusney's and Mookie's time will come.
 
Napoli is in close to the same situation as Victorino.  He has a relatively large expiring contract with injury concerns.  Craig, if he recovers, is actually relatively cost controlled for several years.  JBJ is also cost controlled.  2016 and beyond are important too.  The Sox will be selling low if they trade any of them but, from a long term perspective, Napoli and Victorino ought to be their primary trade bait mainly because their contracts are expiring.  You can retain Craig and JBJ either until they prove their worth to keep or restore their trade value.  Even if both continue to disappoint, they still have some residual trade value to another team that values the possibility of controlling them while believing that a change of scenery will unlock their potential.  Napoli and Victorino will be worth their top value as trade chips if they just prove they are healthy and possibly productive during spring training.  Any further injury will make each of them almost worthless.
 
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]I always believed that Hanley is the long term answer at 1B.  If Napoli has trade value this spring, either Hanley or a Craig/Nava platoon (to start) can play there.  However, with all those sinkerball pitchers on the staff, Hanley's IF experience ought to play better there defensively.  The Craig/Nava platoon will be more than adequate in left field.[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Likewise, if Victorino has trade value this spring, neither Betts nor Castillo will need to go back to the minors with JBJ as a defensive 4th outfielder who, if he eventually proves he can hit, would give the Sox probably their best defensive outfield ever with Betts, JBJ and Castillo left to right.[/SIZE]
 

mwonow

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Despite last year's rookie 'experience', I think Hanley, Rusney and Mookie are your starting OF, left to right, for the bulk of 2015 (I also think the FO is looking more at 2016 than 2015 - I'm sure they expect to be competitive in 2015, but I believe they will add a major arm or two after next season as a way to climb further up the standings).
 
You'd think Nava would have some value on the trade market. From where I sit (a basement in Toronto, so I'm not claiming anything for the view!), it's hard to see Nava making the roster ahead of either the young guys or Vic and Craig, so my guess would be that he's gone before opening day.
 
Also, I'm not certain that the Craig we saw last season does enough defensively to belong in a ML outfield platoon (I can't get the tag up for two bases thing out of my head), so I picture him as a PT.outfield fill-in who mainly backs up 1B and DH. So...do you keep Vic around so that the Sox have (with Hanley, Mookie and Rusney) four defensively-capable OFs? Or do you trade Vic, hold Nava, and call up JBJ if one of Mookie or Rusney gets hurt and you need another glove for center/right?
 
Personally, I'd have a hard time being less of a Craig fan, but I think he's less likely to go than either Vic or Nava unless somebody decides to Godfather Ben. With power at a premium and Cespedes no longer around, I think the Sox will probably give Craig another season - but I don't see him being in the mix as an everyday or even platoon option in the OF
 

phenweigh

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JimD said:
The best outcome for the Red Sox is if both Shane Victorino and Allen Craig show up healthy in spring training and prove capable of playing major league baseball at a high level again. 
 
 
jasvlm said:
It seems that the consensus is that Castillo will play CF.  I think the Sox optimal alignment is probably Hanley in LF, Betts in CF and Castillo in RF.  
 
I agree with both of the above.  The problem is if both happen, it assures a roster crunch until somebody is traded.  And the trade may not happen before the season starts if the Sox FO doesn't like the value coming back, and would prefer to have Shane and Allen establish more trade value.  Sure, that's the proverbial "good problem to have," but it's still a problem.  And the proverbial "these things have a way of working themselves out", is not a certainty though I do think it's likely.  So if this scenario plays itself out the Sox will be faced with a tough decision, and I can see them sending Betts down to AAA for a short time.
 

Niastri

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Savin Hillbilly said:
1. They did not sign Castillo to 7/72 to be a 4th OF. He has a starting job (whether in CF or RF) until he plays his way out of it.
 
2. If Victorino is healthy, it's conceivable they start the year with him as the starting RF just to pump up his value for an early trade. If he is keeping Mookie in Pawtucket or on the bench past mid-May, something has gone terribly wrong.
 
3. Trotsky, I'm not sure why you think LF defense will be weaker in away games. As an OF, mobility should be Hanley's strong suit. He's not as fast as he used to be, but his speed is still probably roughly average for a LF. I would expect him to be a better defender on the road than at Fenway, at least at first.
Responding to the bolded part:  If Victorino, Castillo and Ramirez are playing so much we can't find time for Betts, things could have gone terribly right.   Victorino and Ramirez are both capable of putting up 4-5 win seasons when healthy, and Castillo might be a revelation.  If they play well enough to keep Betts on the farm into May, I bet we have a good shot at leading the division.
 
I don't see it happening.  I am of the opinion that Victorino is unhealable at this point and will play very limited time through the last year of his contract and retire at the end of the season.  I hope I am wrong, but just watching a video of him walking around looked painful, and that video was at the end of the season.

Dude can barely walk, or so it seems.  Nobody feels sorry for a guy with his lifetime earnings, but having a bad back sucks the life out of you (so I kind of do feel bad for him...).
 

The Boomer

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Encouraging numbers in Puerto Rico for Castillo and Vazquez after yesterday's games:
 
 
 
[SIZE=9pt]Castillo, Rusney CF [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]3 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]0 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]3 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt].405 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2 2B (2), BB (2)[/SIZE]
 
 
[SIZE=9pt]Vazquez, Christian[/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]5 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]1 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt].300 [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]HR (1)[/SIZE]
 

judyb

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Responding to the bolded part:  If Victorino, Castillo and Ramirez are playing so much we can't find time for Betts, things could have gone terribly right.   Victorino and Ramirez are both capable of putting up 4-5 win seasons when healthy, and Castillo might be a revelation.  If they play well enough to keep Betts on the farm into May, I bet we have a good shot at leading the division.
 
I don't see it happening.  I am of the opinion that Victorino is unhealable at this point and will play very limited time through the last year of his contract and retire at the end of the season.  I hope I am wrong, but just watching a video of him walking around looked painful, and that video was at the end of the season.

Dude can barely walk, or so it seems.  Nobody feels sorry for a guy with his lifetime earnings, but having a bad back sucks the life out of you (so I kind of do feel bad for him...).
Wouldn't near the end of the season be just a few weeks after he'd had the surgery? Not that I'd have any idea if the surgery will do him any good at all, but shouldn't he have been expected to look pretty bad around then either way?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I seem to remember that Victorino always walks around looking a bit painful, even when he's supposedly healthy. He's the Mickey Rivers of the new millennium.
 
Anyway, good point Niastri that if Betts really is blocked past the first 4-6 weeks that means things are probably going very well. I just think he has a chance to be extraordinary, and I would hate to see veteran-placating politics delay or derail that. Also, I would question whether VIctorino is really capable of putting up a >4-win season at this point. He did it in 2013 primarily because he got an extraordinary, and probably artifactual, boost from UZR. (Yes, I was watching, his RF play was outstanding, but I don't think it was >30 UZR/150 outstanding.) I think if we were to get a 3.5-win season from Victorino next year that would be great, and as much as we should expect. And while it's too soon to say this with confidence, I think that's very likely to be Mookie's floor.
 

67WasBest

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Knowing how the FO feels about deep depth and maximizing value I expect an early diet of Victorino and Craig in early season showcases. That is assuming neither are dealt before the season starts. I'm expecting Betts, Castillo and Ramirez by year end. I also see Bradley with a bench role because that glove, inserted late in games, will likely win more games than any bat we could add to the bench.

I hold out a hope of Betts, Bradley and Castillo in 2016, with Hanley at 1B.
 

Niastri

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In general, a rotation of our six outfielders with Brentz and Bradley being our seventh and eighth guys is the most likely to result in a highly productive outfield. There is so much uncertainty among them that I would be terrified to trade any of them without getting a ransom.

Ramirez may be a LF disaster, Betts and Castillo might not handle the majors like we hope, Victoria and Craig might continue to be unhealthy, Nava might get rubbed out of the rotation, etc.

Each of them is insurance for poor performance from the others.
 

JimD

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Savin Hillbilly said:
Anyway, good point Niastri that if Betts really is blocked past the first 4-6 weeks that means things are probably going very well. I just think he has a chance to be extraordinary, and I would hate to see veteran-placating politics delay or derail that.
 
After the 2014 debacle, I believe that Farrell will be under pressure to play the best talent, period.  I sure as hell hope that ownership doesn't put up with another mediocre season just to placate underperforming vets. 
 

Merkle's Boner

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JimD said:
After the 2014 debacle, I believe that Farrell will be under pressure to play the best talent, period.  I sure as hell hope that ownership doesn't put up with another mediocre season just to placate underperforming vets.
But couldn't you argue that the 2014 debacle had a lot to do with relying on too much youth and not enough vets. I'm curious to see whether they have a quick trigger with Betts/Castillo after the poor play of JBJ, Xander, and WMB in 2014.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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Merkle's Boner said:
But couldn't you argue that the 2014 debacle had a lot to do with relying on too much youth and not enough vets. I'm curious to see whether they have a quick trigger with Betts/Castillo after the poor play of JBJ, Xander, and WMB in 2014.
 
I certainly hope that's not their response to last year. They should be relying on their own judgment about when prospects are ready, and then giving them as big a role as their talent appears to warrant. Sometimes it's going to work, sometimes it's not. (Which is, of course, equally true of supposedly "proven" veterans: as exhibits A, B, and C, I give you Crawford, C., Pierzynski, A.J., and Lugo, J.) To stop giving important roles to rookies because a few rookies struggled in one season would be like never sending runners because a few of them got thrown out at the plate in one game. Of course you have to be smart and not reckless about your sends, but if your runners are never getting thrown out, you're not sending them enough. Same goes here: if your prospects are never tanking, you're not giving them enough opportunities.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
I certainly hope that's not their response to last year. They should be relying on their own judgment about when prospects are ready, and then giving them as big a role as their talent appears to warrant. Sometimes it's going to work, sometimes it's not. (Which is, of course, equally true of supposedly "proven" veterans: as exhibits A, B, and C, I give you Crawford, C., Pierzynski, A.J., and Lugo, J.) To stop giving important roles to rookies because a few rookies struggled in one season would be like never sending runners because a few of them got thrown out at the plate in one game. Of course you have to be smart and not reckless about your sends, but if your runners are never getting thrown out, you're not sending them enough. Same goes here: if your prospects are never tanking, you're not giving them enough opportunities.
Given that we're talking about the outfield, and whether "proven veterans" can bounce back from career-threatening injuries, Grady Sizemore could be the most apt comparison from 2014 to Victorino and Craig for 2015. Grady had 2 BABIP-fueled streaks, one at the beginning of the season for Boston and one in the middle of the season for Philadelphia, but overall he was sucking up at bats that would have been better given to almost anyone else.
 

Fireball Fred

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Jul 29, 2005
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Sizemore is not a good comp for Victorino- he'd been out of baseball for two years, and injured for three years before that. Victorino's health and age are certainly concerns, but he was very good at a key position year before last.
 

lxt

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Sep 12, 2012
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67WasBest said:
Knowing how the FO feels about deep depth and maximizing value I expect an early diet of Victorino and Craig in early season showcases. That is assuming neither are dealt before the season starts. I'm expecting Betts, Castillo and Ramirez by year end. I also see Bradley with a bench role because that glove, inserted late in games, will likely win more games than any bat we could add to the bench.

I hold out a hope of Betts, Bradley and Castillo in 2016, with Hanley at 1B.
I said the same thing a while back, except naturally Hanley was not an option. I think your statement is now a far more accurate picture of what's to come. I like Napoli but I don't think the Sox can limit themselves.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Jun 26, 2006
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I'm also less pessimistic about Victorino than many here. He's not a guy who's always out with injury. 2013 as his first year under 130 games, and then obviously there was the back issue last year. But he's been otherwise very durable. 
 
"Back surgery" is pretty broad and vague. After the surgery, he was walking around within a few days and just wasn't allowed to bend/lift/twist for one month. The outside of the recovery was six months. Did he have vertebrae fused? Nerve damage repaired? Spinal stuff or not? It's hard to know - can't find anything specific.
 
There's strong possibility he's good as new, his hamstring is now well rested and repaired, and we've got a gold glove .800 OPS guy on our hands. I think rightfield is his to lose.  
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Some interesting analysis/projection on Victorino based on other players that have had the same type of surgery he did.  If the Red Sox have done similar study, it might explain why they haven't appeared to operate on the assumption that Victorino will be back to his old self.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Thanks. That's cool info. But I think there are a couple missing data points:

What was the average age at surgery?

What was the average games played before and after?

And how much are the counting stats held down by a couple of outliers?

Still, I agree that portends ill.
 

jasvlm

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Nov 28, 2014
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There are a few reasons I feel like Victorino will have to earn his spot back.  Firstly, he hasn't played in a while, and his back surgery is certainly something that requires a fair amount of recovery time both to hit and to field at levels approaching his 2014 performance.  I think the team will give him that time, but not necessarily in the major league lineup.  Secondly, he's a free agent beyond 2015.  That cuts both ways: he's playing for his next (and likely last) contract, so the team should feel some level of obligation to allow him to showcase those skills to potentially interested teams-BUT: this is a bottom line business, and if he's not right, they won't trot him out there for 400 ABs to allow him to rebuild his value while better options rot on the bench or in AAA.  I think Victorino has a role on the 2015 Sox, but it won't be as a starting player.  He should enter the season as a projected 25 man roster player ONLY if he is as healthy as he can be and ONLY if he is without limitations physically.  Otherwise, he's going to head to AAA to play himself into shape while the able bodied OFers stay in the bigs.  
 

Al Zarilla

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jasvlm said:
There are a few reasons I feel like Victorino will have to earn his spot back.  Firstly, he hasn't played in a while, and his back surgery is certainly something that requires a fair amount of recovery time both to hit and to field at levels approaching his 2014 performance.  I think the team will give him that time, but not necessarily in the major league lineup.  Secondly, he's a free agent beyond 2015.  That cuts both ways: he's playing for his next (and likely last) contract, so the team should feel some level of obligation to allow him to showcase those skills to potentially interested teams-BUT: this is a bottom line business, and if he's not right, they won't trot him out there for 400 ABs to allow him to rebuild his value while better options rot on the bench or in AAA.  I think Victorino has a role on the 2015 Sox, but it won't be as a starting player.  He should enter the season as a projected 25 man roster player ONLY if he is as healthy as he can be and ONLY if he is without limitations physically.  Otherwise, he's going to head to AAA to play himself into shape while the able bodied OFers stay in the bigs.  
During Pablo's intro he mentioned himself and Hanley slotting in maybe fourth and fifth as he reeled off a one through seven lineup. He mentioned Victorino first and I got the feeling that he'd been talking to Ben and maybe Farrell when they were selling the sox and they were talking up Vic. Who knows though. Betting man I'd bet it's Shane's job to lose though.
 

MakMan44

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Aug 22, 2009
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Al Zarilla said:
During Pablo's intro he mentioned himself and Hanley slotting in maybe fourth and fifth as he reeled off a one through seven lineup. He mentioned Victorino first and I got the feeling that he'd been talking to Ben and maybe Farrell when they were selling the sox and they were talking up Vic. Who knows though. Betting man I'd bet it's Shane's job to lose though.
That doesn't really make sense, since Vic is only going to be here for 1 more season. If they were talking anyone up, it should've been Mookie (who Farrell mentioned as the lead off man a while back) or Rusney. 
 
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