The Patriots Win the Toss and Defer to the Second Half

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I tried to do some research to back up a vague feeling I had about the Patriots’ seeming preference to receive the second half kick off.  Ultimately, I reached no conclusions, but thought I might as well post the data I gathered just in case it is useful to any other inquiry anyone might be making.  By and large, I was surprised that the Patriots seem particularly ineffective in their first drive of each half, but I don’t think it has anything to do with deferring or not deferring, and, moreover, I have no idea how the stats square with how the rest of the league does in their first possession of each half as opposed to after they are “warmed up”. 
 
One thing I would say about all this is that the first drive of game 5 – the Cincinnati game – felt important at the time.  2-2, coming off a primetime butt kicking, Cinci looking dominant at 4-0, and people talking about a QB controversy.  They got the ball first and ran a beautiful TD drive.  I’m glad they didn’t have a chance to defer there.  A Cinci score to start the game might have really caused sphincters to tighten.
 
Patriots have kicked off first (either by winning the toss and deferring or because their opponent took the ball) 10 times. 
 
In the three games where they received first, their first drive of the first quarter resulted in:
 
Three and out
10-play TD
4-play TD
 
In the ten games where they had the second possession of the game, their first drive of the game resulted in:
 
Three and out.
Three and out.
Three and out.
Three and out.
5-play TD
Punt (one first down)
11-play TD
Three and out.
Three and out.
18-play FG
 
In the three games where they kicked off to start the second half, their first possession of the second half resulted in:
 
4-play, fumble lost
Three and out
12-play FG drive
 
In the ten games where they received the second half kickoff, their first possession of the second half resulted in:
 
Punt (two first downs)
Three and out
Three and out
7-play TD
6-play TD
6-plays, interception
8-play TD
11-plays, interception
Three and out
Three and out
 
Overall stats of the 26 possessions to start a half:
 
Three and outs, then punt:  12.
Punt after at least one first down: 2.
TD: 7
Turnover: 3
FG: 2

 

[Super Nomario]

I tried to do some research to back up a vague feeling I had about the Patriots’ seeming preference to receive the second half kick off.  Ultimately, I reached no conclusions, but thought I might as well post the data I gathered just in case it is useful to any other inquiry anyone might be making.  By and large, I was surprised that the Patriots seem particularly ineffective in their first drive of each half, but I don’t think it has anything to do with deferring or not deferring, and, moreover, I have no idea how the stats square with how the rest of the league does in their first possession of each half as opposed to after they are “warmed up”. 

That's all pretty small sample, but the other thing you should factor into the analysis is average starting field position on the various drives.

 

[wutang112878]

I tried to do some research to back up a vague feeling I had about the Patriots’ seeming preference to receive the second half kick off.  Ultimately, I reached no conclusions, but thought I might as well post the data I gathered just in case it is useful to any other inquiry anyone might be making.  By and large, I was surprised that the Patriots seem particularly ineffective in their first drive of each half, but I don’t think it has anything to do with deferring or not deferring, and, moreover, I have no idea how the stats square with how the rest of the league does in their first possession of each half as opposed to after they are “warmed up”. 
 
One thing I would say about all this is that the first drive of game 5 – the Cincinnati game – felt important at the time.  2-2, coming off a primetime butt kicking, Cinci looking dominant at 4-0, and people talking about a QB controversy.  They got the ball first and ran a beautiful TD drive.  I’m glad they didn’t have a chance to defer there.  A Cinci score to start the game might have really caused sphincters to tighten.

 
My take is its a bit of game theory.  Assuming no turnovers teams simply switch posession of the ball.  On your last drive of the 2nd half you can try to manage your posession such that you get 2 posessions in a row which is almost like getting a turnover.  You cant always manage the clock to capitalize on this, but this strategy at least gives you the opportunity to do it.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
My take is its a bit of game theory.  Assuming no turnovers teams simply switch posession of the ball.  On your last drive of the 2nd half you can try to manage your posession such that you get 2 posessions in a row which is almost like getting a turnover.  You cant always manage the clock to capitalize on this, but this strategy at least gives you the opportunity to do it.

I think this edge is more psychological than anything - at most (barring return TDs or recovered onside kicks) you're getting one more possession than the other team, and about half the games you get the same number of possessions. Getting two in a row is kind of neat, but you're not really getting an extra possession.

 

[wutang112878]

The extra posession is pretty signficant though.  Ignoring field position, we've averaged 2.7 points per posession.  So if it does indeed gain you a posession its almost like starting the game up a FG which is a pretty signifcant advantage that you gain solely on game theory strategy

 

[coremiller]

There is strategic value in structuring your end-of-half possession so that your opponent does not get another possession before the half.  But that's true regardless of who gets the ball to start the second half.  There is no "extra" possession that results from having the ball at the end of the half and then receiving the ball to start the second half -- that "extra" possession just offsets that the other team got the ball to start the game.

 

[Super Nomario]

The extra posession is pretty signficant though.  Ignoring field position, we've averaged 2.7 points per posession.  So if it does indeed gain you a posession its almost like starting the game up a FG which is a pretty signifcant advantage that you gain solely on game theory strategy

You aren't any more likely to get an extra possession by taking the ball or deferring, though. It just comes down to whether the half has an even or odd number of possessions.

 

[Saints Rest]

It seems to me that there are two reasons for deferring -- both of which are purely psychological/strategic:

1. Start the game with your defense on the field.  Defense is that side of the ball that is more reliant on adrenaline so use that to your advantage.
2. Start the 2nd half with the ball, so that you give yourself the ability to either run off a second score in a row (assuming you score to close the 1st half) or gain back momentum (assuming your opponent scores to close the 1st half -- cf. Week 15 against the Dolphins).

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

 
It seems to me that there are two reasons for deferring -- both of which are purely psychological/strategic:

1. Start the game with your defense on the field.  Defense is that side of the ball that is more reliant on adrenaline so use that to your advantage.
2. Start the 2nd half with the ball, so that you give yourself the ability to either run off a second score in a row (assuming you score to close the 1st half) or gain back momentum (assuming your opponent scores to close the 1st half -- cf. Week 15 against the Dolphins).

 

 
I kind of started trying to research a similar question -- it is basically whether in general teams score fewer points on average on the very first drive of the game than they do in the rest of the game.  And then test it with how teams do when their first possession is the first drive of the game as opposed to starting on defense and having their first possession be the second possession of the game.  The question was sort of whether it's easier to play offense or defense during the first few moments of a game, when you're amped up.  My hypothesis to test was similar to the adrenaline point, but the other side of it -- sort of that when you have butterflies at the very beginning of the game before that first hit and stuff that it's harder to execute on offense than it is on defense, especially for a passing type team.  But I found it very difficult to research other than tediously going through game logs.  
 
On the second point, I've sort of wondered whether the effect of the new, shorter halftime has any effect on the question whether to defer.  They shortened it to 12 minutes.  With bathroom and beer lines, virtually every stadium -- even Seattle -- is half empty until halfway through the third quarter.  If you think noise and big crowd are a thing that matters, it seems like getting the ball first in the second half on the road might give you a minor advantage.  I notice this when I go to games -- when the visitor gets the ball to start the third quarter, they often get the advantage of a relatively quiet crowd for a five minutes of game time or so.

 

[Bergs]

I've always assumed that BB simply believes possessions in the second half are more valuable than possessions in the first, likely because they can:
A) Set the tone for the last 30 minutes
B) Incorporate any adjustments made at halftime

 

[dbn]

I suspect it is like lineup construction. It doesn't matter except to the extent that the players/coaches think it matters. I.e., any psychological effects. That said, I also suspect even the psych effects are small.

 

[ALiveH]

One of the things I learned from playing hundreds of hours of Madden NFL is to defer the opening kickoff.  And, I learned this even before the BB era, so I consider myself a bit of a savant on this issue.  Controlling the second half of the game is more important than the first b/c the score will dictate the tempo, play-calling, etc.  When you defer the kickoff you get to choose which goal to defend, so you can have the wind to your advantage to close both halfs.  This is a pretty huge advantage (even moreso if you're up huge or down huge on a windy day).  As a bonus, your opponent will frequently choose to receive the ball in the first half, so you will be doubly advantaged in the second half (potentially getting an extra possession).
 
In addition, b/c you have the wind to your advantage to close out both halves it is more likely that you will be able to squeeze out an extra possession by getting the final possession each half, especially on a windy day.
 
The other positives / negatives I see being discussed in this thread are largely pop-psych or speculative.