The Payroll and Lester

In my lifetime

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There has been 31 pages of hand-wringing over Lester's possible impending free agency with many calling for the RS just to give Lester his money. We are all in the dark, since we don't know where the negotiations stand (if they are even ongoing) and what Lester would take to sign now.
 
However, I doubt many would expect Lester to sign at anything less than 6/120, with it looking like it will take at least 6/132 to keep him.  On the free market, he would/will probably get offers of 6-7 yrs at over 25M per year.  So how does Lester fit within the RS budget, which I think we can safely assume will continue to remain just at the luxury tax number.  A rough estimation for the pre-benefits (also short term player acquisition, players 26-30 who end up on the 25 man roster, etc) tax number of the 25 man roster is approximately 160M. 
 
Right now (via Cot's):
2015 obligations to the following 6 is 78.6:
 

Napoli, Mike

Ortiz, David


Victorino, Shane

Pedroia, Dustin

Buchholz, Clay


Mujica, Edward

Dodger Payment

 
 
 
Adding other likely  or important pieces at the following approximate prices, puts the number at ~117 for 21 players
 

Lackey - 12

Uehara - 7

Ross - 3.2

Vasquez - 550k

Miller, Andrew- 4

Carp, Mike - 2

Herrera - 1.8

Tazawa - 2.2

Doubront - 1.3

Nava - 1.3

WMB - 550 

Workman - 600

Bogaerts - 550

JBJ -550

De La Rossa-1.2
 
 

Holt - 550
 
Of course, there are a ton of assumptions and rough guesses about salaries. 
Some of the biggest including Lackey negotiating a 2 or 3 yr deal at below market but significantly more than the team's 1 yr option price.
Uehara and Miller resigning at significant raises.
Even if some of the resignings listed don't happen, it is probable that the replacements who are signed will have contracts in the same neighborhood.
 
 
So that leaves approximately 43 million of room left in the budget to replace the following:
Peavy replaced internally with De La Rossa
Drew replaced internally with WMB
Gomes - 2014 AAV 5M  (2015 - ?5.5)
Breslow - 2014 AAV 3.8M (2015 - ?4.5)
Badenhop - 2014 AAV 2.1M (2015 - ?3.5)
Lester
 
If Lester gets a minimum of 22, that leaves no more than 21 million. At 26, ~17M would remain.
Signing everyone above  except Drew and Peavy would leave the RS within 4-8M of their presumed budget.  
Unfortunately signing everyone leaves them with the same team which is currently in last place. Yes, I know the rookies will be better, Holt will keep surprising us, Victorino and Bucholz will be healthy, Uehara and Papi will continue to defy age, etc.  
But I think most would agree in addition to a #1 pitcher, the RS need at least one additional significant bat either at C, Corner OF or SS/3B to be satisfied going into 2015. Replacing Gomes with a significant acquisition who will cost 10-15 (where they fall on this range will depend on Lester's or his replacement's contract) is probably the easiest to imagine.  
 
Unfortunately, it is not a 1 year deal or even a 3 year deal, which most would agree the RS could live with a 26 AAV contract for 3 yrs.  However if Lester starts to age poorly or gets hurt and is no longer a #1, the 26M could be used more effectively and that obviously has to be figured in any contract. Unfortunately, we can't count on the Dodgers to always bail the RS out of bad contracts.
 
Unlike some, I believe that every contract has to be looked at individually regarding it's impact on the current and future budget. I don't think it is wise to use the rationalization that the RS have a lot of cost-controlled inexpensive players currently and therefore should pay a player much more than he is likely to be worth 4 or 5 years down the road.  Looking at their track record, I am confident that the  current owners are not interested in having a payroll significantly below the tax number to bank more money.  However, I think they have learned via Crawford that it is a poor decision to think any one player is critical for the team to remain competitive on an annual basis.  If the front office judgement is that the best offer they will make to Lester is somewhere in the neighborhood of 6/120-132, and he decides to move on, then I am okay with that.  There is always another way to spend that money, if not this year, then next. 
 
 
 

Rasputin

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Dump Gomes and Breslow in addition to Drew. Doubront gets moved up to second left and Holt can take Gomes' ABs. Make Lackey's deal an extension that doesn't replace the current year.

After 2015, you'll have Vic, Ross (if he's still here), Napoli (though I would like to retain him), and maybe even Buchholz and/or Papi coming off as well as the payment to the Dodgers.

And you know what? Going a little bit over the threshold every now and then isn't the worst that could happen.
 

In my lifetime

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Rasputin said:
And you know what? Going a little bit over the threshold every now and then isn't the worst that could happen.
 
The change is the CBA re: losing the revenue sharing rebate means going over the threshold is more expensive than previously. However, from the collective bargaining agreement (available on mlb.com) - going over a single year, does not result in losing the any portion of the rebate. Going over 2 years in a row, results in forfeiting 25% of the revenue sharing rebate.  This increases by 25% for every consecutive year a team is over the threshold.  Bottom line: As you state ---- going over 1 year is not the worst, but the penalty is much stiffer now for going over consecutive years.
 
The likelihood of going over by a little for a year and then being under the next year is usually not a major problem. However, as the Yankees found out, going over by a lot and then trying to get under for the next year (and field a competitive team) is very difficult since there are typically many multi-year contracts.
 
From Fangraphs:
 
Under its current iteration, MLB’s revenue sharing program looks something like this:
● Every team in the majors pays in 31% of their net local revenue, and then that money is divided up and equally distributed to every team. Since large-market teams will have much greater local revenues than small market teams, this already puts small market teams in the black.
● On top of this, a large chunk of MLB’s central fund (which are acquired through things like national broadcasts) is set aside to be allocated to teams based on their revenues.
● By 2016, the fifteen teams in the largest markets in baseball will be disqualified from receiving revenue sharing. This feature is being phased in over the coming years. The disqualified clubs will receive a refund for the amount that they would have received in revenue sharing, although teams that have exceeded the Luxury Tax threshold in recent years will not receive a full refund. (MLB.com)
 

benhogan

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In my lifetime said:
 
Right now (via Cot's):
2015 obligations to the following 6 is 78.6:
 
Napoli, Mike Ortiz, David Victorino, Shane Pedroia, Dustin Buchholz, Clay Mujica, Edward Dodger Payment  
 
 
Adding other likely  or important pieces at the following approximate prices, puts the number at ~117 for 21 players
 
Lackey - 12 Uehara - 7 Ross - 3.2 Vasquez - 550k Miller, Andrew- 4 Carp, Mike - 2 Herrera - 1.8 Tazawa - 2.2 Doubront - 1.3 Nava - 1.3 WMB - 550  Workman - 600 Bogaerts - 550 JBJ -550 De La Rossa-1.2
 
Some of the biggest including Lackey negotiating a 2 or 3 yr deal at below market but significantly more than the team's 1 yr option price.
Good job, but I don't think the Sox rip up 1yr at $500k and give Lackey 2 for $24MM or 3 for $36MM. That is pretty close to a market rate deal for a guy his age, injury history and results. Plus he is a full year away from free agency.
 
I like Lackey now (2013-14 version), but I'm not rewarding him for a year and half of production on a 5yr deal with a FAT 2-3yr deal extension.  If I'm going to reward anyone its Lester... then Koji... then Miller...
 

ALiveH

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I argued in the other thread Vic, Mujica and Breslow are arguably overpaid and we're on the hook for them in 2015 at >$20M total.  I would not be sad to trade them for a sack of balls at the deadline if we turn into sellers.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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ALiveH said:
I argued in the other thread Vic, Mujica and Breslow are arguably overpaid and we're on the hook for them in 2015 at >$20M total.  I would not be sad to trade them for a sack of balls at the deadline if we turn into sellers.
We're not on the hook for Breslow for '15:
 
  • 13:$2.325M, 14:$3.825M, 15:$4M club option, $0.1M buyout
 

snowmanny

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ALiveH said:
I argued in the other thread Vic, Mujica and Breslow are arguably overpaid and we're on the hook for them in 2015 at >$20M total.  I would not be sad to trade them for a sack of balls at the deadline if we turn into sellers.
Victorino is a health issue. He wasn't overpaid at all last year and might well be fine at that price in 2015 if he's not injured. If he is injured there is no trade to be made.
 

ALiveH

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yeah, Vic was awesome last year.  This year, the most games he can possibly play is 86.  but the FO has to put an expected value on him in 2015.  If he only plays 100 games and/or doesn't perform, $13M is a lot to pay!  If he duplicates 2013 we'll get our money's worth.  Btw, he turns 34 next year, his defensive value is partially tied to his speed & willingness to sacrifice his body, his offensive value is also partially tied to his speed & willingness to sacrifice his body (25 HBP in 136 games including postseason) and he has an injury history.
 
It's certainly debatable, but I'd rather spend the $13M elsewhere.