There has been 31 pages of hand-wringing over Lester's possible impending free agency with many calling for the RS just to give Lester his money. We are all in the dark, since we don't know where the negotiations stand (if they are even ongoing) and what Lester would take to sign now.
However, I doubt many would expect Lester to sign at anything less than 6/120, with it looking like it will take at least 6/132 to keep him. On the free market, he would/will probably get offers of 6-7 yrs at over 25M per year. So how does Lester fit within the RS budget, which I think we can safely assume will continue to remain just at the luxury tax number. A rough estimation for the pre-benefits (also short term player acquisition, players 26-30 who end up on the 25 man roster, etc) tax number of the 25 man roster is approximately 160M.
Right now (via Cot's):
2015 obligations to the following 6 is 78.6:
Napoli, Mike
Ortiz, David
Victorino, Shane
Pedroia, Dustin
Buchholz, Clay
Mujica, Edward
Dodger Payment
Adding other likely or important pieces at the following approximate prices, puts the number at ~117 for 21 players
Lackey - 12
Uehara - 7
Ross - 3.2
Vasquez - 550k
Miller, Andrew- 4
Carp, Mike - 2
Herrera - 1.8
Tazawa - 2.2
Doubront - 1.3
Nava - 1.3
WMB - 550
Workman - 600
Bogaerts - 550
JBJ -550
De La Rossa-1.2
Holt - 550
Of course, there are a ton of assumptions and rough guesses about salaries.
Some of the biggest including Lackey negotiating a 2 or 3 yr deal at below market but significantly more than the team's 1 yr option price.
Uehara and Miller resigning at significant raises.
Even if some of the resignings listed don't happen, it is probable that the replacements who are signed will have contracts in the same neighborhood.
So that leaves approximately 43 million of room left in the budget to replace the following:
Peavy replaced internally with De La Rossa
Drew replaced internally with WMB
Gomes - 2014 AAV 5M (2015 - ?5.5)
Breslow - 2014 AAV 3.8M (2015 - ?4.5)
Badenhop - 2014 AAV 2.1M (2015 - ?3.5)
Lester
If Lester gets a minimum of 22, that leaves no more than 21 million. At 26, ~17M would remain.
Signing everyone above except Drew and Peavy would leave the RS within 4-8M of their presumed budget.
Unfortunately signing everyone leaves them with the same team which is currently in last place. Yes, I know the rookies will be better, Holt will keep surprising us, Victorino and Bucholz will be healthy, Uehara and Papi will continue to defy age, etc.
But I think most would agree in addition to a #1 pitcher, the RS need at least one additional significant bat either at C, Corner OF or SS/3B to be satisfied going into 2015. Replacing Gomes with a significant acquisition who will cost 10-15 (where they fall on this range will depend on Lester's or his replacement's contract) is probably the easiest to imagine.
Unfortunately, it is not a 1 year deal or even a 3 year deal, which most would agree the RS could live with a 26 AAV contract for 3 yrs. However if Lester starts to age poorly or gets hurt and is no longer a #1, the 26M could be used more effectively and that obviously has to be figured in any contract. Unfortunately, we can't count on the Dodgers to always bail the RS out of bad contracts.
Unlike some, I believe that every contract has to be looked at individually regarding it's impact on the current and future budget. I don't think it is wise to use the rationalization that the RS have a lot of cost-controlled inexpensive players currently and therefore should pay a player much more than he is likely to be worth 4 or 5 years down the road. Looking at their track record, I am confident that the current owners are not interested in having a payroll significantly below the tax number to bank more money. However, I think they have learned via Crawford that it is a poor decision to think any one player is critical for the team to remain competitive on an annual basis. If the front office judgement is that the best offer they will make to Lester is somewhere in the neighborhood of 6/120-132, and he decides to move on, then I am okay with that. There is always another way to spend that money, if not this year, then next.
However, I doubt many would expect Lester to sign at anything less than 6/120, with it looking like it will take at least 6/132 to keep him. On the free market, he would/will probably get offers of 6-7 yrs at over 25M per year. So how does Lester fit within the RS budget, which I think we can safely assume will continue to remain just at the luxury tax number. A rough estimation for the pre-benefits (also short term player acquisition, players 26-30 who end up on the 25 man roster, etc) tax number of the 25 man roster is approximately 160M.
Right now (via Cot's):
2015 obligations to the following 6 is 78.6:
Napoli, Mike
Ortiz, David
Victorino, Shane
Pedroia, Dustin
Buchholz, Clay
Mujica, Edward
Dodger Payment
Adding other likely or important pieces at the following approximate prices, puts the number at ~117 for 21 players
Lackey - 12
Uehara - 7
Ross - 3.2
Vasquez - 550k
Miller, Andrew- 4
Carp, Mike - 2
Herrera - 1.8
Tazawa - 2.2
Doubront - 1.3
Nava - 1.3
WMB - 550
Workman - 600
Bogaerts - 550
JBJ -550
De La Rossa-1.2
Holt - 550
Of course, there are a ton of assumptions and rough guesses about salaries.
Some of the biggest including Lackey negotiating a 2 or 3 yr deal at below market but significantly more than the team's 1 yr option price.
Uehara and Miller resigning at significant raises.
Even if some of the resignings listed don't happen, it is probable that the replacements who are signed will have contracts in the same neighborhood.
So that leaves approximately 43 million of room left in the budget to replace the following:
Peavy replaced internally with De La Rossa
Drew replaced internally with WMB
Gomes - 2014 AAV 5M (2015 - ?5.5)
Breslow - 2014 AAV 3.8M (2015 - ?4.5)
Badenhop - 2014 AAV 2.1M (2015 - ?3.5)
Lester
If Lester gets a minimum of 22, that leaves no more than 21 million. At 26, ~17M would remain.
Signing everyone above except Drew and Peavy would leave the RS within 4-8M of their presumed budget.
Unfortunately signing everyone leaves them with the same team which is currently in last place. Yes, I know the rookies will be better, Holt will keep surprising us, Victorino and Bucholz will be healthy, Uehara and Papi will continue to defy age, etc.
But I think most would agree in addition to a #1 pitcher, the RS need at least one additional significant bat either at C, Corner OF or SS/3B to be satisfied going into 2015. Replacing Gomes with a significant acquisition who will cost 10-15 (where they fall on this range will depend on Lester's or his replacement's contract) is probably the easiest to imagine.
Unfortunately, it is not a 1 year deal or even a 3 year deal, which most would agree the RS could live with a 26 AAV contract for 3 yrs. However if Lester starts to age poorly or gets hurt and is no longer a #1, the 26M could be used more effectively and that obviously has to be figured in any contract. Unfortunately, we can't count on the Dodgers to always bail the RS out of bad contracts.
Unlike some, I believe that every contract has to be looked at individually regarding it's impact on the current and future budget. I don't think it is wise to use the rationalization that the RS have a lot of cost-controlled inexpensive players currently and therefore should pay a player much more than he is likely to be worth 4 or 5 years down the road. Looking at their track record, I am confident that the current owners are not interested in having a payroll significantly below the tax number to bank more money. However, I think they have learned via Crawford that it is a poor decision to think any one player is critical for the team to remain competitive on an annual basis. If the front office judgement is that the best offer they will make to Lester is somewhere in the neighborhood of 6/120-132, and he decides to move on, then I am okay with that. There is always another way to spend that money, if not this year, then next.