The Plan For the #1, er, #3 Overall Pick?

Kid T

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I dont get how the C's make a trade with the 76ers if it doesnt involve embiid? Only player that puts the c's over the top after adding atleast hayward...
Because Embid's health makes him too much of a wildcard. Also, the 76'ers are trying to build their "big 3" with Embid, Fultz, an Simmons. From the C's perspective, adding Embid means adding more salary that will need to be shuffled off to clear enough cap space for Hayward.



I am going to disagree with most of you and say I am fine with this. Ainge did not think Fultz was that much better a fit compared to at least 2 other guys on the board and got max value for the pick. What would have been a disaster is he kept the number 1 and drafted someone other than Fultz.

I think folks on this board should be open-minded about Butler coming - I know their games don't compare but there is a good chance Fultz will never be as good as Butler at the NBA level. Always make deals for proven NBA all-stars over draft picks because there is too much variability in how players project, and that doesn't include injury risk.


Personally I continue to be more excited for Zizic than anyone in this draft class....
The problem is Butler accounts for $18 million/year against the cap vs $4-7 mil for the #1/3 pick. The other element is the length of contract/team control. Butler has 2 years left while the draft pick will be under team control for 4. While I agree that we shouldn't write off the next 2-3 years to Warriors/Cavs, I think most will agree that the roster as presently constructed (even with the inclusion of Butler) is not strong enough to overtake the Warriors/Cavs barring an injury or other unforeseen circumstance. The key is to stretch the window of contention instead of throwing almost all your chips for a GFIN stategy. Be competitive if an opportunity presents itself, but keep intermediate term assets available to build a dynasty in years 3-6. Adding Hayward would help with the present lineup, but I think the assets required to acquire Butler might be prohibitive in mortgaging too much future flexibility. I think the biggest question mark for the intermediate/long-term future is how Ainge views IT's role and whether he is willing to extend a max contract. In a perfect world, Brown and whomever Ainge picks at #3 blossoms into their full potential. The 2018 ping pong balls fall just the right way and the C's get 2 of Porter/Doncic/Ayton.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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This thread is amazing.

If Danny ends up with Butler and Hayward and Jackson out of this on top of potentially one of Ayton/Porter/Doncic it is a fucking grand slam. IT/Hayward/Butler/Horford/Zizic with Smart/Jackson/18'Rookie is a helluva lot better than what we put on the court this year. Top 3-4 in the NBA easily, and a legit puncher's chance against GSW and CLE.

I mean, by the sentiments in this thread you would think Danny is Don Sweeney and that the Celtics should just tank the next 5 years regardless because GSW and CLE are going to win anyways.
What if the package for Butler includes the #3 pick this year? Does that change your mind?
 

Steve Dillard

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Jaylen Brown and #3? Keep next year's LA/2019 Sacramento? and Brooklyn 2018
 

Devizier

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I wonder if the Celtics will tinker around the edges of this trade. Moving their Cleveland and Clippers second rounders for Philadelphia's pick from New York would be nice.
 

Sportsbstn

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All we have right now is #1 is being traded and a ton of speculation of what could be next. Ainge has done a great job till now with trades and building the team, so I trust him to execute his plan here. At worst let's see what that plan is first before making final judgement.
 

Swedgin

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This thread is an amazing study in collective psychology. The best so-called draft experts in the world - not to mention the GMs themselves who are paid to get these things right - have a very spotty track record in evaluating which college and overseas players will truly flourish in the NBA.
Except, they don't in the context of Fultz. The track record of consensus #1 picks in the NBA is near perfect. Other than Greg Ogden who was undone by injury not ability, consensus #1 picks do not bust. On the other hand the league is full of 2-4 picks in the same drafts who failed.

It's not complicated. When everyone agrees that one player is clearly the best in his class, that guy almost always turns out to be very good. The other players all have question marks, require more projection etc. which gives rise to differing opinions and eventually varied outcomes.

That's why I dislike this deal. I trust in Danny, but he's not infallible or omniscient. He's better than most of his peers at evaluating talent but there is still a huge element of risk when you get past a consensus 1 or 1a/1b situation.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Were they to deal for Butler before the draft, wouldn't that mean not enough cap room for a max free agent?

Also...

Danny can't be banking on getting Jackson as he might not be around. There's been a solid group of evaluators who don't believe there's a huge difference between 1-4.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cs end up with DSJ or Tatum or Fox.

But god, if DA ends up with Ball, I think DA will have made the biggest mistake of his life. Bigger than biting Tree Rollins.
For the record, Ainge never bit Tree Rollins - Rollins bit Ainge, leading to the Herald's memorable headline "Tree Bites Man".
 

wilked

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I tried reading through 8 pages of thread

No one knows what's coming back in this trade yet, right?
 

Imbricus

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Sounds like it's Philly's #3 this year, plus their LAL pick next year, as long as that pick is #2 to #5. Not liking that return at all -- can't believe Ainge couldn't wring more than that out of Philly -- but I think it makes sense not to judge yet until he's played more of his cards and we see where this is going. Many, many things we don't know, even as diehard fans.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm in the camp that is concerned about the trade. I am on record here as saying that I think they should be building the team to begin peaking 4 years from now, when the GS dynasty window is closing, but that in the meanwhile, they should still try to be as competitive as possible without jeopardizing the larger plan.

I wanted Fultz and one of the big 3 from next year's draft (was hoping for Ayton). I thought that those two, combined with Jaylen Brown, Zizic, and Yabusele, would form a potentially phenomenal core.

In the meanwhile, I was thinking that they'd add Hayward, and have IT, Brown, Bradley, Hayward, Horford as the core, which would be pretty darned good and competitive.

But if this trade is going to happen, I'm going to have to readjust my expectations. Especially if they turn these newly acquired draft picks into Jimmy Butler. That would make me nauseous, not because Butler isn't a really good player - he is, and he'd make the current Celtics better. It's because I don't think he'd remotely put them over the top, and he'd cost them that post-GS window as well. They'd be better over the next 4 years, but probably not good enough to get by Cleveland still, never mind GS.

So what I'm hoping is that - presuming the deal is going to happen, which I'd rather it not - they do NOT trade the picks for Butler or George, but stay with the process. Sign Hayward anyway (that part of the plan doesn't change), and then hope that the 2018 pick falls to 2 or 3 and they are able to get 2 of the top 3 picks in next year's draft, and end up with two of Porter/Ayton/Doncic. And with the #3 pick this year, they either take Tatum or Jackson (more on these two in a moment) OR trade that pick for like the #5 and a future pick from Sacramento, and grab Isaac in that spot. I'm a believer that you go for the guy who could be a star, and Isaac has enormous potential.

Ugh. I wish this wasn't a conversation, but it looks like it needs to be since it looks like this deal is happening.

*Tatum and Jackson... Tatum is a really good scorer who can put the ball in the basket from every level and the Celtics sorely could use a guy like that. Jackson is a tremendous athlete whose two weaknesses - shooting and ball-handling - can be overcome with practice and hard work, and he is by all accounts a tremendous worker. And it's not like he's a bad shooter. His mechanics are poor but he puts the ball in from three point range at a sufficiently effective rate that I think he could be a solid shooter when all is said and done. He really is exactly what the Celtics already have though - a great athlete who works hard and can be great on defense. Isn't that what Crowder, Smart, Brown, etc., already are?
 

wilked

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If it was both picks (even with a #1 protection against Lakers) I would have liked the trade. If it's an either or and with the Lakers protection I don't think he got good value.

The only explanation, as others noted, is he is not as high on Fultz as the public and/or much higher than the public on Jackson / Tatum

Edit to add: or part of a bigger trade
 

Eddie Jurak

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My gut reaction is that I don't care for this deal because I saw Fultz as being a nice fit here. Capable of playing alongside IT or anchoring the backcourt after IT moves on.

If we were certain to get a top pick in next year's draft out if it I'd be more on board, but as things stand it is a risk.

I don't like the idea of the Celtics pivoting to GFIN mode without adding the star who can really bring them there, which seems like a short list after Anthony Davis who isn't likely to be available anyway.

Also, I have no idea what Danny is up to.
 

lovegtm

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Jackson is a tremendous athlete whose two weaknesses - shooting and ball-handling - can be overcome with practice and hard work, and he is by all accounts a tremendous worker. And it's not like he's a bad shooter. His mechanics are poor but he puts the ball in from three point range at a sufficiently effective rate that I think he could be a solid shooter when all is said and done. He really is exactly what the Celtics already have though - a great athlete who works hard and can be great on defense. Isn't that what Crowder, Smart, Brown, etc., already are?
Crowder and Smart are below-average athletes by NBA standards. Obviously it doesn't seem to hurt Smart on defense much, but it really shows when he tries to finish near the rim.
 

cathat

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Hate this rumored trade. I don't 100% trust DA's talent evaluation skills. Remember he was willing to trade a Brooklyn pick for Justice Winslow. I think we can all agree that he dodged a bullet there. Why would you trade a guaranteed #1 pick in a draft with a consensus #1 for a chance to get a #2-5 pick?
 

lovegtm

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If it was both picks (even with a #1 protection against Lakers) I would have liked the trade. If it's an either or and with the Lakers protection I don't think he got good value.

The only explanation, as others noted, is he is not as high on Fultz as the public and/or much higher than the public on Jackson / Tatum

Edit to add: or part of a bigger trade
Given that we already know Danny likes to consolidate and go after players he's high on (Winslow), this whole trade probably was set in motion when he and Brad just weren't that high on Fultz relative to other options.

At that point, trading down becomes a great option, but it's VERY hard to do effectively in the NBA draft. Off the top of my head, I can't recall a recent example of a team doing it. Hinkie got Saric and a pick moving down 2 spots, but the pick was (I think) lottery protected. The Knicks wanted to move down and take Porzingis lower, but it didn't happen.

If Ainge really likes other players as much or better as Fultz, this is a very strong haul, given constraints.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Not sure if anyone is still having the 2012 calendar problem but I found a fix online last night that worked for me. I went into the PS3 browser and cleared the cache. I then uninstalled the MLB.TV app and re-installed the same version. Rebooted the system and voila! 2013 calendar! I probably could have skipped the uninstall/reinstall step but I figured it couldn't hurt to try that as well.

Now I just need to test if the games will actually play.
Marcus Smart is not a below avergae athlete. Do you mean possesses a below avg vertical?
 

lovegtm

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Marcus Smart is not a below avergae athlete. Do you mean possesses a below avg vertical?
What I mean is that his limitations finishing at the rim are connected to what is usually labeled "athleticism." He clearly has other athletic attributes (lateral quickness, strength) that allow him to be elite on defense.
 

finnVT

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I think the discounting of value of future picks is a big part of why this feels iffy. If the LAL pick were this year in the 2-5 range, would people feel differently? Fultz for Jackson+Tatum? And that draft next year, as of right now, looks like it might be even better at the top. Adam Silver's comments about 1-and-done add a wrinkle to this too-- if that goes away next year (or the year after if SAC conveys instead), one of those drafts could end up being doubly loaded.
 

jmm57

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What are people projecting Zizic as? It seems like there's been an overcorrection since the draft and he's now overrated on here. I still haven't seen anywhere projecting him as a starter on a contender.

I've seen Zaza or Robin Lopez types with less D, Valanciunas as an upside comp and one Steven Adams with less passing/d.
 
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BaseballJones

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Crowder and Smart are below-average athletes by NBA standards. Obviously it doesn't seem to hurt Smart on defense much, but it really shows when he tries to finish near the rim.
I don't think it's his athleticism that keeps him from finishing near the rim. I think it's that he's not a particularly talented scorer.
 

cumicon

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I think my biggest question with this trade is why now? Why not at least wait until draft night and see how desperate Philly gets? Really wish the return was the unprotected Laker's 2018, and if it falls outside of the top 5, Philly has to convey Sacramento 2019 in addition Philly '18.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think the discounting of value of future picks is a big part of why this feels iffy. If the LAL pick were this year in the 2-5 range, would people feel differently? Fultz for Jackson+Tatum? And that draft next year, as of right now, looks like it might be even better at the top. Adam Silver's comments about 1-and-done add a wrinkle to this too-- if that goes away next year (or the year after if SAC conveys instead), one of those drafts could end up being doubly loaded.
Obviously, we can't grade this deal without knowing 1) who we select and 2) what happens with that pick. If we get lucky and it lands at 2 or 3, I think we'll all be dancing in the streets getting Tatum/Jackson + Doncic/Porter/Ayton Fultz. If the pick is part of a bigger trade, then we need to see who it nabs whether it be Butler and someone else. And we also need to know how we do in FA. If we strike out in FA but still make a GFIN trade for Butler, then the trade gets dicier.

I think there's some real risk here but it's disingenuous not to acknowledge the potential upside. But I don't think that disagreeing with this trade makes someone a WEEI caller or whatever. This isn't a slam dunk "hell yeah" deal. It could be good or it could be bad. Or it could be a wash. We'll just have to see.
 

MarkBT

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I think my biggest question with this trade is why now? Why not at least wait until draft night and see how desperate Philly gets? Really wish the return was the unprotected Laker's 2018, and if it falls outside of the top 5, Philly has to convey Sacramento 2019 in addition Philly '18.
Once he made decision to trade out of #1, I think Danny wanted a few days to shop the #3 pick (and other assets) before the draft. If he truly is intent on keeping the future picks (for now), and values a few players in the 4-8 range of this draft board, why not put a bidding war at #3? Are there teams out there that would give up multiple picks/assets for Jackson/Fox/Tatum/Ball (if the LAL pass)? If Sacramento felt another team was moving in on Fox would they cough up picks 5 and 10 for 3?
 

Cesar Crespo

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What are people projecting Zizic as? It seems like there's been an overcorrection since the draft and he's now overrated on here. I still haven't seen anywhere projecting him as a starter on a contender.

I've seen Zaza or Robin Lopez types with less D, Valanciunas as an upside comp and one Steven Adams with less passing/d.
I haven't seen anyone on here project him as more than a rotational big who may get 20-25 minutes a night. Steven Adams has actually been his most thrown out comp.
 

smastroyin

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I'm not quite In Danny We Trust here because I honestly don't see the return as enough. As I've said, if the C's had lost the ping pong luck and gotten 3 or 4, I would have been fine trading the pick on its own. But they didn't. They won ping pong luck and Danny just had to make trades anyway. And this is not highway robbery if it's one other pick. It's an ok value trade, maybe even a good one, but as we've all stated, the Celtics have enough value. They need high upside players.

If the plan is flip, I do love Butler and think he would immediately be the best player on the team. Same with Paul George. But, I also agree with the idea that Ainge has to be really careful not to fall in love with the present tense. I do think adding Butler and a good FA without giving up a rotation player probably makes the C's the favorites in the East barring herculean effort from LeBron (and pending whatever moves Cleveland makes of course). But, if that increases the impetus to GFIN, then that can also be a bad thing.

On the other hand, if Ainge has inside info that Durant would actually mull the Celtics if they added another player...then ok, clear the decks and have some fun. I personally think this scenario, however amazingly unlikely, is more likely than Anthony Davis being available and the reason Danny made this trade.
 

DJnVa

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All I know is that there better be another huge shoe to drop. Fultz is a better talent than Jackson and that's the game the Celtics are in right now. Gather the most talent possible. The Lakers pick could easily be late lottery and who knows where the 21 pick will be. Not sure how those kinds of picks helps this team get past the Cavs or Warriors unless they are traded for a big star. Danny is the king of the trade market but this is the biggest gamble of his career. Not only is he passing on the consensus #1 he is trading it to a division rival who could haunt them for years to come if he reaches his potential.

I mean, I wanted Fultz too, but acting like Ainge doesn't know the plan that he's been orchestrating is kinda odd, no?
 

jmm57

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I haven't seen anyone on here project him as more than a rotational big who may get 20-25 minutes a night. Steven Adams has actually been his most thrown out comp.
Just on the prior page there is a post with Zizic plugged in at starting C next year and another saying he's more exciting than anyone in this draft. Outside this board, that boston.com article has friends thinking he's a superstar.

It will be great if they get their 25 min/game rebounder/physical presence that cheap, but wasn't sure if I missed a recalibration on his upside.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If this report is correct and one reason DA is making the trade is because he thinks the Cs are several seasons away, Butler to me doesn't make any sense. Signing a free agent makes sense because it only uses cap space which won't be available in the future but trading the future assets stockpiled for a current asset just seems contradictory to the intent of the trade.

DA must love next year's draft. I can imagine that the Cs brass are thinking that the upside of this trade is so high that they've got to pull the trigger. If the Cs can get Porter and Ayton next year, that could be like adding McHale and Parrish.

Maybe Red has already told DA where the ping-pong balls are going to land next year . . . .
 

Ed Hillel

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Hate this rumored trade. I don't 100% trust DA's talent evaluation skills. Remember he was willing to trade a Brooklyn pick for Justice Winslow. I think we can all agree that he dodged a bullet there. Why would you trade a guaranteed #1 pick in a draft with a consensus #1 for a chance to get a #2-5 pick?
Except that's not the trade. It's a guaranteed #1 pick in an average to above average draft class for the #3 pick in the same class anda strong likelihood of a top 5 pick in one of the next two classes, both of which are probably stronger than this year's.
I think the discounting of value of future picks is a big part of why this feels iffy. If the LAL pick were this year in the 2-5 range, would people feel differently? Fultz for Jackson+Tatum? And that draft next year, as of right now, looks like it might be even better at the top. Adam Silver's comments about 1-and-done add a wrinkle to this too-- if that goes away next year (or the year after if SAC conveys instead), one of those drafts could end up being doubly loaded.
Yeah. What's odd is seeing so many people harp on patience then get upset about having to wait. Impatience is a natural human tendency, I suppose.

(Though they reportedly might blow their wad on Butler)
 

Red Averages

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At the end of the day Danny likely gets his guy and acquires a top 5 pick next year (while hedging if it isn't). That's pretty damn good.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Just on the prior page there is a post with Zizic plugged in at starting C next year and another saying he's more exciting than anyone in this draft. Outside this board, that boston.com article has friends thinking he's a superstar.

It will be great if they get their 25 min/game rebounder/physical presence that cheap, but wasn't sure if I missed a recalibration on his upside.
I mean, he could be the starter on the C's next year. That doesn't really make him a starter. The Celtics just have no other bigs outside of Yabu unless they bring back one of KO, Jerebko or Amir. There's always a small chance he exceeds all his projections.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Just on the prior page there is a post with Zizic plugged in at starting C next year and another saying he's more exciting than anyone in this draft. Outside this board, that boston.com article has friends thinking he's a superstar.

It will be great if they get their 25 min/game rebounder/physical presence that cheap, but wasn't sure if I missed a recalibration on his upside.
It's hard to know Zizic's upside because he's still learning how to play the game. What we do know is that he's an incredibly strong and physical player with a relentless motor. He should be in the NBA for a long time but he still needs to develop skills to translate that longevity into production, particularly on the offensive end. I mean he's not Gobert or Jordan. At this point maybe his best comp is Gortat?
 

Foxy42

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The #1 protection in the LAL pick sucks. I would have thought Danny could get Philly to blink on that.
 

Kliq

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Man the Globe picked the wrong day to build their Sunday Sports section on a massive Fultz feature.
 

smastroyin

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Hard for me to believe that this is even possible.
Indeed, it was as much a statement on the Brow wishes as anything.

But, imagine an NBA where you have Durant on the Celtics. LeBron stays in Cleveland. Paul goes to the Spurs. So you have 4 top tier competitors, without tearing apart the next level (TBD based on FA moves but I'm talking Rockets, Wizards, et al) or the young teams on the rise (Bucks, Sixers, et al). Could be a fun couple years in the NBA. Make it happen Adam. (I realize the "fun" is not as fun for that second tier group, but their chances seem a little less hopeless than they do now anyay)
 

Yossarian

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Couple of thoughts...

Jackson may or may not become a star (he may not even be the pick), but I think we need to hold off on the complaints that he's redundant with what the Celts already have. Crowder, for example, is already a good shooter and probably has maxed out his upside. If Jackson develops Crowder's jumper, on the other hand, he could be a Paul George clone. His upside is just way, way higher than anybody the Celts have in guards/wings with the possible exception of Brown. And it's probably higher there, too.

Also, with all the chatter about the Lakers maybe thinking twice about Ball, I just think it's instructive that all the hype has for months insisted that Fultz and Ball are the no-doubt top two guys in the draft who you have to take if you get the chance. Meanwhile, there's a good chance that the teams with the actual original top two picks took or will take a good look and said "eh, no thanks, we'll go in a different direction." That doesn't mean they're right, necessarily, and my bet is the Lakers do end up taking Ball, but it should raise a few eyebrows.
 

Tony C

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Except, they don't in the context of Fultz. The track record of consensus #1 picks in the NBA is near perfect. Other than Greg Ogden who was undone by injury not ability, consensus #1 picks do not bust. On the other hand the league is full of 2-4 picks in the same drafts who failed.

It's not complicated. When everyone agrees that one player is clearly the best in his class, that guy almost always turns out to be very good. The other players all have question marks, require more projection etc. which gives rise to differing opinions and eventually varied outcomes.

That's why I dislike this deal. I trust in Danny, but he's not infallible or omniscient. He's better than most of his peers at evaluating talent but there is still a huge element of risk when you get past a consensus 1 or 1a/1b situation.
This. You can read every self-appointed internet expert out there, but the consensus is the way to go. It's the same reason I'm confident Ball is the 2nd best player in the draft despite the wise guys going sour on him. It's house money that the consensus is the way to go.
 

pjheff

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Ten years ago, I couldn't understand trading the #5 pick for Ray Allen. In my mind, he was a player on the wrong side of 30 with balky ankles, a poor fit on a rebuilding team. I was wrong, as I was not privy to the longer view that would subsequently add Garnett and thereby transform an organization.

Ten years later, I don't understand trading the #1 pick for the #3 pick, and I say that as someone who thought pre-lottery that Jackson is the most Celtic player in the draft. In my mind, this team needs better assets, not more assets, so turning a better #1 into more #2-6 picks seems a poor fit on a contending team. But I may well be wrong, as I am not privy to the longer view that Ainge has, and thus I am going to watch expectantly for the next move that follows as he attempts once again to transform the organization.
 

MillarTime

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Has there been any confirmation on Danny's preference if they keep #3? Jackson or Tatum? Would they take Ball if the Lakers don't?
 

moondog80

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The #1 protection in the LAL pick sucks. I would have thought Danny could get Philly to blink on that.
Meh. Sure, it would be better without that, but there's a pretty low likelihood of this burning us. The protection on anything 6 or below is a much bigger concession IMO.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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A number of reporters are saying the protection is 2-5 this morning. So Celtics get Lakers pick if it's 1 or 6+.

If it's 2-5 the Celtics get Sac 2019 1st.