The Race for Top 4

[blueguitar322]

Through March 16, 9 games (10 if Chelsea) to go.
 
58 - City (+31)
57 - Arsenal (+26)
56 - United (+24)
...
54 - Liverpool (+13)
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50 - Southampton (+19), Tottenham (+4)
 
Remaining schedules are as follows, with top-7 teams bolded:
 
Chelsea
5 Home: Stoke, ManUnited, Palace, Liverpool, Sunderland
5 Away: @Hull, @QPR, @Arsenal, @Leicester, @Brom
Remaining competitions: None
 
City
5 Home: West Brom, West Ham, Villa, QPR, Southampton
4 AwayPalace, @ManUnited, @Tottenham, @Swansea
Remaining competitions: Champions League (likely exit on Wed)
 
Arsenal
5 Home: Liverpool, Sunderland, Chelsea, Swansea, West Brom
4 Away: @Newcastle, @Burnley, @Hull, @ManUnited
Remaining competitions: Champions League (likely exit on Wed), FA Cup
 
ManUnited
4 Home: Villa, City, West Brom, Arsenal
5 Away: @Liverpool, @Chelsea, @Everton, @Palace, @Hull
Remaining competitions: None
 
Liverpool
4 Home: ManUnited, Newcastle, QPR, Palace
5 Away: @Arsenal, @Hull, @West Brom, @Chelsea, @Stoke
Remaining competitions: FA Cup
 
Tottenham
4 Home: Leicester, Villa, City, Hull
5 Away: @Burnley, @Newcastle, @Southampton, @Stoke, @Everton
Remaining competitions: None
 
Southampton
4 Home: Burnley, Hull, Tottenham, Villa
5 Away: @Everton, @Stoke, @Sunderland, @Leicester, @City
Remaining competitions: None

 

[blueguitar322]

Comments:

• Chelsea has all but wrapped up the title
• City's remaining schedule should see them finish 2nd unless they continue to implode
• Arsenal, United and Liverpool should finish 3-4-5 in some order. I still think United's tough schedule will be their undoing, but their performance against Spurs was quite strong indeed.  Given that all three teams still play each other, it's too close to call.
• Tottenham and Southampton are both six points and two teams behind in the race for Top 4, and have goal differential to overcome.  They also have probably the easiest remaining schedules, so who knows.  I think they're probably out, but will stay close enough to keep the other teams uncomfortable.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

The British oddsmakers are very confident that Arsenal will finish top 4, with the odds ranging from 1:6 to 1:10, with most closer to the latter. United is a slight favorite over Liverpool for the final spot at just less than even money in most books, while Liverpool is just on the other side of that. Obviously, if either side can get 3 points on Sunday, they'll become a solid favorite for the 4th spot.

 

[blueguitar322]

Team RPIs
 
.6065 - Chelsea
.5627 - Arsenal
.5623 - City
.5492 - Liverpool
.5418 - United
.5395 - Southampton
.5364 - Tottenham

 

[blueguitar322]

Through March 22, 8 games (9 if Chelsea) to go.
 
67 - Chelsea (+36) - plus 1 game in hand
...
...
...
...
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61 - City (+34)
60 - Arsenal (+27)
59 - United (+25)
...
...
...
...
54 - Liverpool (+12)
53 - Southampton (+21), Tottenham (+5)
 
Remaining schedules are as follows, with top-7 teams bolded:
 
Chelsea - RPI .6054
5 Home: Stoke, ManUnited, Palace, Liverpool, Sunderland
4 Away: @QPR, @Arsenal, @Leicester, @Brom
 
City - RPI .5613
4 Home: West Ham, Villa, QPR, Southampton
4 AwayPalace, @ManUnited, @Tottenham, @Swansea
 
Arsenal - RPI .5665
5 Home: Liverpool, Sunderland, Chelsea, Swansea, West Brom
3 Away: @Burnley, @Hull, @ManUnited
 
ManUnited - RPI .5508
4 Home: Villa, City, West Brom, Arsenal
4 Away: @Chelsea, @Everton, @Palace, @Hull
 
Liverpool - RPI .5432
3 Home: Newcastle, QPR, Palace
5 Away: @Arsenal, @Hull, @West Brom, @Chelsea, @Stoke
 
Southampton - RPI .5375
3 Home: Hull, Tottenham, Villa
5 Away: @Everton, @Stoke, @Sunderland, @Leicester, @City
 
Tottenham - RPI .5341
3 Home: Villa, City, Hull
5 Away: @Burnley, @Newcastle, @Southampton, @Stoke, @Everton
 
Arsenal have one game left outside the league (FA Cup semifinal) and Liverpool have max two (FA cup quarterfinal replay + semifinal).  Note that the FA Cup final occurs about a week after the league ends, so probably won't have a strong impact on top-4 race.

 

[blueguitar322]

Misc thoughts:

• What a terrible weekend for Liverpool.  All top-7 teams won except for them. Their job is now extremely difficult, as the effective gap between them and United is 6 points due to goal differential.  Not only that, but they have to play five of their last eight games away from Anfield, not to mention the FA cup replay and possible semifinal (at Wembley).
• Arsenal are the opposite case, playing five of their last eight games at home plus the FA cup semifinal only 14 miles from the Emirates.  Not to mention, four of their seven opponents are in the bottom third of the table.
• Where did those two United performances come from?  They've been rather dismal (and extremely fortunate, though de Gea played a huge hand in that) for most of the season, but after two big top-7 wins, their path to remain in the top-4 looks far easier.
• Three games will probably end up playing huge roles in places 2-5: Liverpool at Arsenal, City at United, and Arsenal at United.  Liverpool's best hope is that United loses at home to both City and United.
• Tottenham and Southampton aren't out of it yet, but they will have to make up ground on the road, with each having only three home games left.
• City's schedule is quietly difficult, as six of their remaining eight games are against teams ranked 11th in the table or higher.  Fortunately for them, in order to drop out of the top 4, Liverpool would have to make up 8 points in 8 games.

My guess is that City and Arsenal have come close to locking up top-4 finishes.  I'd probably rather have Arsenal's schedule and the 1 point deficit, but due to City's goal differential lead, I'd still give them the inside edge for 2nd.  United is right there in the conversation too, but their schedule is a bit more difficult, even though it looks far easier than it did 9 days ago.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

The British oddsmakers are very confident that Arsenal will finish top 4, with the odds ranging from 1:6 to 1:10, with most closer to the latter. United is a slight favorite over Liverpool for the final spot at just less than even money in most books, while Liverpool is just on the other side of that. Obviously, if either side can get 3 points on Sunday, they'll become a solid favorite for the 4th spot.

 
As expected, after that debacle, according to the oddsmakers ManU are now strong favorites to make the top 4, while Liverpool's chances have fallen to 3:1. City are basically a lock, with Arsenal not far behind. Current Top 4 odds from Ladbrokes:
 
Manchester City - 1:66
Arsenal - 1:16
Manchester United - 2:11
Liverpool: 7:2
 
Spurs and Southampton are each more than 10:1 longshots.

 

[Bailey10]

Maybe this is speaking as a United fan still high from this weekend's victory, but on those odds I wish i could bet on City dropping out.
 
City, who are easily the most out of form team in the top 4 currently, have 4 tough away games (Palace, United, Spurs, Swansea) and home games to Southampton and two teams in a relegation battle who haven't looked bad of late (Villa, QPR).
 
City dropping 9 points and one of Liverpool/Spurs/Southampton winning out could produce quite a pleasant shock. 

 

[blueguitar322]

With seven games to go:
 
70 - Chelsea (+37) - plus 1 game in hand
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63 - Arsenal (+30)
62 - United (+27)
61 - City (+33)
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54 - Liverpool (+9), Tottenham (+5)
53 - Southampton (+20)