The Rafael Devers Extension Thread

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
Devers side asking for 8-268+, based on the articles reference that they were 100+ apart, is an even less serious offer than you seem to think 8-168 was.
According to FanGraphs, if you take 2020 out of it the value of his last 2.5 seasons is worth $53.2 million, $34.2 million, and currently $36.9 million and will rise from there. Asking for $33.5 million/year is much more in line with what he’s worth than a $21 million/yr offer. Considering he’ll be making close to $20 million next year after a huge arbitration raise, he should be asking for what he asked for.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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In this age of people getting 10, 12, 15 year deals, I absolutely love a deal--even if it's as a 1B or DH that gets us him until he's 33 at around $30 million. You buy his prime and nothing more. Can stuff go to shit? Sure. But this is a good deal.
Sure, for the team. But Devers is not going to sign a deal that forces him into free agency again when he’s past his prime. Look at the model of all these recent deals - guaranteed length (think 10–12 years), but also multiple player opt outs so the player can get more money or years if the market changes.

Why would a guy like Devers accept less? Surely it will likely be a bad deal for the team that signs him, but someone will do it. So you either have to give him what he wants or accept not resigning him. Which is fine, but it will be hard to replace him-it’s not as if upper echelon free agents are generally signing team friendly deals. I mean, Marcus Semien just got more than the Sox offered Devers for his age 31-37 years .
 

jose melendez

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Sure, for the team. But Devers is not going to sign a deal that forces him into free agency again when he’s past his prime. Look at the model of all these recent deals - guaranteed length (think 10–12 years), but also multiple player opt outs so the player can get more money or years if the market changes.

Why would a guy like Devers accept less? Surely it will likely be a bad deal for the team that signs him, but someone will do it. So you either have to give him what he wants or accept not resigning him. Which is fine, but it will be hard to replace him-it’s not as if upper echelon free agents are generally signing team friendly deals.
My comment was based entirely on the rumor of him wanting 8 for $268. If that's on offer, do it yesterday,
 

GB5

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Almost nobody ever looks at the viewpoint of the team in these things. Every offer that a player doesn’t accept is “insulting”. How long do we have to go back on this.
Clemens
Boggs
Mo Vaughn
Maybe Pedro
Mookie
Lester..I though I agree with this instance.

every Red Sox high end player who leaves here was insulted.
The team is running a business. It’s job with these contracts if they really want the player is to get him to the shortest term and the least amount of dollars possible.
Set a contract with years and dollar amount and say this is the most we absolutely will pay. Anything beyond that we have to walk away.
And then make your lowest but reasonable enough offer to stay in the negotiating game.
If the agent for the player does not counter offer then there is not a deal to be made. The player wants to test the market which is their right.
If this was an open bank then someone like JD Martinez would be getting more than 20 mill per, because most agreed that the Sox waited him out and got him for under market. Same with Varitek.

what they really shouldn’t do is let Bogey and Raffy get into their walk years, then the negotiation becomes a whole separate kettle of fish.
 

streeter88

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My goodness. A Globe day off piece during the ASB, and we have 1 1/2 pages of commentary. This place will go absolutely nuts when / if anything remotely newsworthy happens.
 

BaseballJones

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If you’re Raffy would you prefer a 7/245 deal (35 per) or a 12/360 deal (30 per)? Obviously the first is a higher AAV and a shot at another huge deal at age 32 but the second is way more total money and is a hedge against career ending injury or whatever.
 

Apisith

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Yeah, we missed the boat on extending him a few years ago because we were always over the cap. That’s another negative to having a lot of high-cost long-term deals: being forced to go year-to-year with your cost-controlled players.
 

jon abbey

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In this age of people getting 10, 12, 15 year deals, I absolutely love a deal--even if it's as a 1B or DH that gets us him until he's 33 at around $30 million. You buy his prime and nothing more. Can stuff go to shit? Sure. But this is a good deal.
'Until he's 33 at around $30 million' is a 6/180 offer, I don't think that's going to do it in either years or AAV.
 

Apisith

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Devers is probably going to ask for $350m after he puts up a 7-win season, maybe even more if Soto gets a $500m extension from whoever trades for him.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Not for a guy like Mookie in his late 20’s (at the time) but maybe for a younger star like Soto, Acuna, etc.
This. I love Mookie and hated to see him go, but he was 4 years older than Soto is now (a huge difference) and salaries have only continued to go up. Had the pandemic not hit when it did, I'm certain Mookie would've netted far more. Add in some of the money thrown at other players since then and the beeping sound we're all hearing as Cohen backs up the Brinks truck for Judge and the monopoly money it'll cost to retain Soto for the final 3rd of his contract won't seem nearly as bad as it seems now, especially if much of it is deferred. I remember Winfield signing his deal with the Yankees and all the audible gasps at the thought of someone making that much to play ball. It's not much more than the league minimum based on AAV now.

Raffy is about halfway between Soto's age and Mookie's at the time he was traded. This is the time to lock him down to a lifetime deal if we're so inclined. Raffy and Soto are the guys you want to build a franchise around. Short of Ohtani, you'd be hard pressed to find bigger impacts on your roster. Good or bad, $35M AAV deals will be much easier to unload 8-10 years from now than most people might think.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If you’re Raffy would you prefer a 7/245 deal (35 per) or a 12/360 deal (30 per)? Obviously the first is a higher AAV and a shot at another huge deal at age 32 but the second is way more total money and is a hedge against career ending injury or whatever.
Both. A 12 year with multiple opt outs.
 

grimshaw

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The two of those guys had very similar offensive lines last year.

Matt Olsen age 27 season: .271/.371/.540 with a .379 wOBA and well below average 1b play.
Devers age 24 season: .279 .359/.538 with a .373 wOBA and among the worst 3b play.

I can see Matt Olsen as an opening offer if they thought Devers would be moving to 1b or if he wouldn't improve in the field, but not something that would get done because of the age difference.

He wasn't in that top tier coming into the season but him going all superstar bat and becoming average in the field changes it all and I can see how that offer could bother him now if he felt this is where he was heading.

As an added note, Devers is on pace for the 2nd highest wRC+ age 25 3b season of all time.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=1900&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=25,25&filter=&players=0&startdate=1900-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=19,d
 
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scottyno

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The two of those guys had very similar offensive lines last year.

Matt Olsen age 27 season: .271/.371/.540 with a .379 wOBA and well below average 1b play.
Devers age 24 season: .279 .359/.538 with a .373 wOBA and among the worst 3b play.

I can see Matt Olsen as an opening offer if they thought Devers would be moving to 1b or if he wouldn't improve in the field, but not something that would get done because of the age difference.
Olson also played in one of the worst hitters parks while Devers played in one of the best. That Devers line was a 133 ops+ while Olson was a 154
 

Sox Puppet

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It stands to reason that Devers would probably make a pretty good 1B. At least anecdotally, he has always seemed to have pretty good hands and range, but a not very accurate arm. Playing him at 1B would keep him from having to do what he does worst. He may take playing 3B as a point of pride, though, especially if he knows people are skeptical of his defense there.

As a side note, putting our eggs in the Triston Casas basket has had a number of ripple effects. If we didn't have him in the pipeline, maybe we'd just pay Devers what he wanted and move him to 1B right away, then get a 3B some other way. At the very least, we wouldn't be wasting ABs on Bobby D and Franchy.
 

BaseballJones

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Olson also played in one of the worst hitters parks while Devers played in one of the best. That Devers line was a 133 ops+ while Olson was a 154
No matter how reasonable, given everything, the Olson comp might have been last year, it’s irrelevant if Devers thinks it’s a joke and an insult.
 

koufax32

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No matter how reasonable, given everything, the Olson comp might have been last year, it’s irrelevant if Devers thinks it’s a joke and an insult.
It’s only irrelevant if the goal is “sign him as cheaply as possible but get it done no matter what.” I assume this isn’t the case though.

That said, I wonder what the top numbers 1. were when that offer was made, and 2. what the top numbers are now in terms of both years and dollars. I think everyone agrees they’ve gone up, but to what from what? Does the FO look at this year as the new norm for an ascending player or a possible career year with the previous two being his normal baseline for the next 8-10 years? I’ve not delved into the stats enough to determine if this year’s numbers are sustainable. Regardless, it’s safe to assume the RD will want to be paid like this is his new norm.

At the risk of putting too much in one post, there is the body type factor when considering a long term extension. RD looks more like a Youk than a Mookie and, if my memory is correct, Youk body types fade earlier than more fit/lean types. Should this impact offers?
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah I mean I’d sign that in a nanosecond if I’m Boston. He will get a lot more than that.
 

Average Game James

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Riley had 3 more years of arbitration eligibility according to Spotrac (looks like he was a Super 2?) so I'm not sure the deal is all that comparable.
 

mikcou

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That's pretty team-friendly, especially the AAV. At best that's a starting point for us. It's going to cost us a lot more.
He has three arb years remaining. Probably was only going to get $30-$35M for the three combined. You take that out and theyre valuing his FA years at like 7/175-180. Add in a discount for paying him that early and were looking at $28-30M a year for FA years for a lesser player.
 

moondog80

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Riley was better than Devers last year and just as good this year. Devers will cost more only to the degree that him being closer to free agency ups his price. Which is , of course, significant. But that's the only difference.
 

chawson

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Since 2020 (in bWAR):
AR: 10.2
RD: 8.5

Since 2021:
AR: 10.8
RD: 7.8

2022:
AR: 4.7
RD: 4.3

Arb years are off but this seems like it could influence a Devers extension more in the team-friendly direction, at least relative to the Machado deal.
 

Ganthem

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Hasn't Dever's defense improved this season? I kind of feel that part of the gap in what the Sox think he is worth and what he thinks he is worth was his defense. If the Sox feel Devers can remain at third for the bulk of the contract then I can see how they would be comfortable offering a large deal to him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Hasn't Dever's defense improved this season? I kind of feel that part of the gap in what the Sox think he is worth and what he thinks he is worth was his defense. If the Sox feel Devers can remain at third for the bulk of the contract then I can see how they would be comfortable offering a large deal to him.
By most defensive metrics, Devers seems to be improved over the previous couple seasons, or at least not getting worse. He's still not great or even good, but he's a lot closer to passable than he's been, which is encouraging.

Total Zone per 1200 innings:
2020 -31
2021 -20
2022 -2

BIS Runs Saved per 1200 innings
2020 -10
2021 -12
2022 -4

UZR per 150 games
2020 -10.6
2021 -5.8
2022 -6.6

Statcast Runs Prevented:
2020 -3 (short season)
2021 -9
2022 +1

He's never going to be a gold glover and they can't hold back on an offer because of that. But if they think he can be good enough to hang there for at least half the contract (say through age 31 or so), I think they don't worry about the possible overpay on the back-end if he has to become a full time DH.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If he’s in it for a mind-warping 12-year deal, and he can stay at 3B for 4 of those and then split 1B, DH and occasional 3B the remaining 8…. Is that good? That’s what I’m envisioning but I still think he’ll be a .900+ OPS bat for at least 8 of those 12 years
 

BeantownIdaho

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If he’s in it for a mind-warping 12-year deal, and he can stay at 3B for 4 of those and then split 1B, DH and occasional 3B the remaining 8…. Is that good? That’s what I’m envisioning but I still think he’ll be a .900+ OPS bat for at least 8 of those 12 years
I wonder if he is open to a 7-8 year deal to be able to sign another 6-7 year deal to take him to the end of his career. It might be beneficial for both parties. Who knows what the crazy money will be 8 years from now.
 

8slim

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If he’s in it for a mind-warping 12-year deal, and he can stay at 3B for 4 of those and then split 1B, DH and occasional 3B the remaining 8…. Is that good? That’s what I’m envisioning but I still think he’ll be a .900+ OPS bat for at least 8 of those 12 years
Is there reason to think that Devers can't play 3B past the age of 30? I mean that literally. Is there evidence that he'll need to be moved in 4-5 years?
 

Rovin Romine

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If he’s in it for a mind-warping 12-year deal, and he can stay at 3B for 4 of those and then split 1B, DH and occasional 3B the remaining 8…. Is that good? That’s what I’m envisioning but I still think he’ll be a .900+ OPS bat for at least 8 of those 12 years
That seems optimistic. His best years are ahead of him in one sense. But he's had 4.5 seasons at 3B to get better there. . .and his best version of himself (this year) might well be his future best also.

As far as the bat goes, bRef comps him via similarity scores to guys like Rolen and Chavez. There's a positional adjustment to that, but it does not factor in defense. Meaning the score will tend to cluster players who play the same position to a degree, not equate or distinguish among good or bad catchers.

Age 22 - OPS .916 (his second full year, for all intents and purposes.)
23 - .793 (short season)
24 - .890
25 - .938 (so far)
**
26 - .900+ ?
27 - .900+ ?
28 - .900+ ?
29 - .900+ ?
31 - .900+ ?
(now a DH/1B)
32 - .900+ ?
33 - .900+ ?
34 - .900+ ?
35 - sub. 900 OPS?
36 - sub. 900 OPS?
37 - sub. 900 OPS?
38 - sub. 900 OPS?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Is there reason to think that Devers can't play 3B past the age of 30? I mean that literally. Is there evidence that he'll need to be moved in 4-5 years?
I should have added "worst case scenario he can only play 4 more seasons there". I hope he can stick there for more than that.
Just he's always been dinged by his defense so I could envision it becoming problematic enough that he gets moved in 4 more.