The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

Delicious Sponge

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It's started already, and is the main reason why a lot of people, myself included, are so pissed at Bloom for his lack of moves at the trade deadline. It's beginning to look like the 2021 season will be one more weight for Red Sox fans to bear, but our own TV network shouldn't be stoking the fire.
Yankees' Comeback On Red Sox In Standings Among Largest Ever (nesn.com)
“One more weight for Red Sox fans to bear”?????????????

I can’t believe I need to say this but this team has won FOUR World Series in the last 17 years.

If you’re bearing weight as a post-2004 Red Sox fan you need to check yourself.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Not to get all Dalbecian, but it pays to look at his at bats in addition to databasing them. Every player's at bat tells a story that goes beyond the paperwork. JDM's vulnerability to low/outside comes to mind as an example. Renfroe's sometimes decision to swing before a pitch is thrown raises another. WIth Dalbec, it seems that his pitch recognition is off. Remy often mentions head control and looking the pitch into your bat and it often appears that Dalbec simply makes himself vulnerable to swings and misses by not tracking the ball. It becomes excruciating when he has 2 strikes on him and a pitcher knows he doesn't need to throw anything hittable. Now...this is just from recollection, but I'm certain that there are others on this site that pay more attention than I do and can back up some of the advanced stats with their eyeballs.

I'm not saying the stats lie...they've got mechanical eyes on everything these days...but what about Dalbec in 2021 gives you confidence that he may have turned a corner?
 

Doug Beerabelli

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“One more weight for Red Sox fans to bear”?????????????

I can’t believe I need to say this but this team has won FOUR World Series in the last 17 years.

If you’re bearing weight as a post-2004 Red Sox fan you need to check yourself.
The Red Sox have won four World Series since 2004, but every time they're on ESPN or Fox playing a late season series we can count on seeing Bucky Dent , Bill Buckner and Aaron Boone. And 2011 is sure to come up in the conversation. It is REALLY nice to counter with Papi, Pedro and 2018, but you know that, even if this team was overachieving and it isn't fair, this season will be constantly brought up.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Red Sox have won four World Series since 2004, but every time they're on ESPN or Fox playing a late season series we can count on seeing Bucky Dent , Bill Buckner and Aaron Boone. And 2011 is sure to come up in the conversation. It is REALLY nice to counter with Papi, Pedro and 2018, but you know that, even if this team was overachieving and it isn't fair, this season will be constantly brought up.
Sure, if the season ended today.

Story's not finished on this season yet.
 

E5 Yaz

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The Red Sox have won four World Series since 2004, but every time they're on ESPN or Fox playing a late season series we can count on seeing Bucky Dent , Bill Buckner and Aaron Boone. And 2011 is sure to come up in the conversation. It is REALLY nice to counter with Papi, Pedro and 2018, but you know that, even if this team was overachieving and it isn't fair, this season will be constantly brought up.
And you give a shit about this ... why?
 

grepal

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Alex Cora made a great point about the Yankees being being better. Before the trade deadline the Yankees made several moves which made them a different and a better ball club. They may not have enough to win the World Series but once in the playoffs the best team does not always win. The Red Sox made paltry moves compared to the other contenders. If they got better it was by inches, not yards. Chris Sale is a great pitcher but it is pretty hard to picture a scenario where he comes back after two years of not pitching to lead us to a win. Our bullpen was overtaxed by too many starters unable to get through 5 or 6 innings too often. We now see the results.
 

scottyno

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Alex Cora made a great point about the Yankees being being better. Before the trade deadline the Yankees made several moves which made them a different and a better ball club. They may not have enough to win the World Series but once in the playoffs the best team does not always win. The Red Sox made paltry moves compared to the other contenders. If they got better it was by inches, not yards. Chris Sale is a great pitcher but it is pretty hard to picture a scenario where he comes back after two years of not pitching to lead us to a win. Our bullpen was overtaxed by too many starters unable to get through 5 or 6 innings too often. We now see the results.
Schwarber Robles and Davis have the same WAR for the Sox as Rizzo Gallo and Heaney have for the Yankees. The moves they made aren't the reason they've been better.
 

E5 Yaz

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Schwarber Robles and Davis have the same WAR for the Sox as Rizzo Gallo and Heaney have for the Yankees. The moves they made aren't the reason they've been better.
Stop screwing with the Hate Bloom/Cora narrative
 

cantor44

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Not to get all Dalbecian, but it pays to look at his at bats in addition to databasing them. Every player's at bat tells a story that goes beyond the paperwork. JDM's vulnerability to low/outside comes to mind as an example. Renfroe's sometimes decision to swing before a pitch is thrown raises another. WIth Dalbec, it seems that his pitch recognition is off. Remy often mentions head control and looking the pitch into your bat and it often appears that Dalbec simply makes himself vulnerable to swings and misses by not tracking the ball. It becomes excruciating when he has 2 strikes on him and a pitcher knows he doesn't need to throw anything hittable. Now...this is just from recollection, but I'm certain that there are others on this site that pay more attention than I do and can back up some of the advanced stats with their eyeballs.

I'm not saying the stats lie...they've got mechanical eyes on everything these days...but what about Dalbec in 2021 gives you confidence that he may have turned a corner?
By my eye test, his pitch recognition has been better later, and no surprise has corresponded to his improved numbers ... my anecdotal sense (I watch almost every game) is that he's swinging out of the zone a lot less ...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What about Schwarber at first base? What happened to that?
Would be delicious to see him there, with Verdugo, Hernandez, Renfroe in the outfield, JD at DH and Arroyo at 2B ...That would be maximal use of their best players ...but, alas ... maybe in his reps at first before games Schwarb isn't cutting it.
Schwarber at 1B....still alive.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1428103792931885062

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1428104327298756611
 

E5 Yaz

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No wonder he hasn't been able to play 1B ... they have him working on the wrong side of the field
 

BaseballJones

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Schwarber Robles and Davis have the same WAR for the Sox as Rizzo Gallo and Heaney have for the Yankees. The moves they made aren't the reason they've been better.
Well you know better than this. It’s been too short a time to evaluate them based on WAR with their new teams. Rizzo was hugely impactful right off the bat (no pun intended) for New York. But he hasn’t accumulated enough ABs to really register in terms of WAR.
 

scottyno

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Well you know better than this. It’s been too short a time to evaluate them based on WAR with their new teams. Rizzo was hugely impactful right off the bat (no pun intended) for New York. But he hasn’t accumulated enough ABs to really register in terms of WAR.
Fair enough, we can look at win probability added, which shows the game by game impact relative to the scoreboard, and the 3 Yankees are a combined 0.1 WPA, .5 for Rizzo, .5 for Gallo, and -.9 for Heaney, compared to .2 for Schwarber -.1 for Robles and 0 for Davis. So again, no real difference, slight edge to the Yankees because WPA ignores defense.
 

NYCSox

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Even then they won two of the three Heaney starts so his suckitude does not matter.

Edit: I don't know what matters now TBH. They steal games they have no business winning and then somehow on the brink of pissing away games they don't piss them away. Absolutely infuriating.
 

BaseballJones

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Fair enough, we can look at win probability added, which shows the game by game impact relative to the scoreboard, and the 3 Yankees are a combined 0.1 WPA, .5 for Rizzo, .5 for Gallo, and -.9 for Heaney, compared to .2 for Schwarber -.1 for Robles and 0 for Davis. So again, no real difference, slight edge to the Yankees because WPA ignores defense.
Rizzo, in his first 6 games for the Yankees, went 8-20 with 8 runs, 3 hr, and 6 rbi, slashing .400/.519/.850/1.369. In those 6 games, the Yankees went 5-1. In his first two games, the Yanks won both, scoring 7 total runs. Rizzo scored 5 of their 7 and drove in 2 himself. He got on base 7 of his 9 plate appearances in those two games.

So he made an ENORMOUS impact, especially those first two games, both of which they almost certainly do not win without him. So I don't care what WAR or WPA says, the guy was a major difference-maker right out of the chute for them.

Obviously less so now because he cooled off and then has been on the Covid list, but there's no denying the impact he made initially.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Combined 1 wpa is well above what the Sox have gotten out of first base all year, though. Sometimes the “replacement player” isn’t so easy to find.
 

scottyno

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Rizzo, in his first 6 games for the Yankees, went 8-20 with 8 runs, 3 hr, and 6 rbi, slashing .400/.519/.850/1.369. In those 6 games, the Yankees went 5-1. In his first two games, the Yanks won both, scoring 7 total runs. Rizzo scored 5 of their 7 and drove in 2 himself. He got on base 7 of his 9 plate appearances in those two games.

So he made an ENORMOUS impact, especially those first two games, both of which they almost certainly do not win without him. So I don't care what WAR or WPA says, the guy was a major difference-maker right out of the chute for them.

Obviously less so now because he cooled off and then has been on the Covid list, but there's no denying the impact he made initially.
And Heaney has given up 15 runs in 15 innings, which is an even more enormous impact, just in the other direction. .5 WPA in 9 games is a ton.
 

RobertS975

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If they lose tonight, someone is bound to point out that during the preseason, we would have been thrilled to be trailing a WC spot by a game in late August. But the trend is not a friend here!
 

scottyno

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But it didn't matter. They went 2-1 in those games.
1-2 actually, but if you want to play that game they probably would have won Rizzo's first 3 games that he homered in anyway because they only gave up 4 runs in 27 innings so those didn't "really matter". The point was that they aren't doing well and the sox aren't doing badly because of the trades or lack of trades. Give the Sox Rizzo and give the Yankees not Rizzo and they'd have about the same records they do now.
 

NYCSox

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1-2 actually, but if you want to play that game they probably would have won Rizzo's first 3 games that he homered in anyway because they only gave up 4 runs in 27 innings so those didn't "really matter". The point was that they aren't doing well and the sox aren't doing badly because of the trades or lack of trades. Give the Sox Rizzo and give the Yankees not Rizzo and they'd have about the same records they do now.
Right. I got the Chicago games mixed up. Thought he pitched one of the two that they should have pissed away but didn't.
 

YTF

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Even then they won two of the three Heaney starts so his suckitude does not matter.

Edit: I don't know what matters now TBH. They steal games they have no business winning and then somehow on the brink of pissing away games they don't piss them away. Absolutely infuriating.
Question, when the Sox were winning games that Richards, Perez and Rodriguez pitched with a great deal of suckatude did it not matter? Maybe if you isolate that game you can say it didn't matter, but in total it certainly mattered.
 

grepal

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Schwarber Robles and Davis have the same WAR for the Sox as Rizzo Gallo and Heaney have for the Yankees. The moves they made aren't the reason they've been better.
WAR has its place but team construction is important too. Schwarber is a good hitter and an on base guy, skills the Sox can always use, but the construction of this team desperately called for a productive first baseman who can hit right handed pitching and a starting pitching capable of going 6-7 innings regularly. With the bullpen stressed from overwork we needed productive arms there too. That is a big shopping list for sure, Glad to see the farm headed in the correct direction. My thought was adding Rizzo and signing him to play first next year and DH when Casas is ready add/or Dalbec improves his splits seemed like a great move. I think the Yankees not only added him bit he Cubbies are paying his salary. As for the starter I know we did not have enough to offer the packages for Berrios and Scherzer but I would have loved it if we could have added one of those pitchers. On the positive side of the coin I did not think the Sox were more than an average team when the season started so I got 4 plus months of maybe we are good enough to make a deep run which is a big bonus in my opinion. It's just that it sucks to see the Yankees get so much help from the one bat that we really should have gotten and to now be behind them is painful. Reminds me of all the years from 60's going forward until 2004. Hopefully the f/o team can do enough to make the Sox great year in and year out, not just be good enough to get into the playoffs. After all the Sox are not the Rays, Boston is the City of Champions.
 

scottyno

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WAR has its place but team construction is important too. Schwarber is a good hitter and an on base guy, skills the Sox can always use, but the construction of this team desperately called for a productive first baseman who can hit right handed pitching and a starting pitching capable of going 6-7 innings regularly. With the bullpen stressed from overwork we needed productive arms there too. That is a big shopping list for sure, Glad to see the farm headed in the correct direction. My thought was adding Rizzo and signing him to play first next year and DH when Casas is ready add/or Dalbec improves his splits seemed like a great move. I think the Yankees not only added him bit he Cubbies are paying his salary. As for the starter I know we did not have enough to offer the packages for Berrios and Scherzer but I would have loved it if we could have added one of those pitchers.
Rizzo has a .914 ops since he's been traded, Dalbec has an ops of .1080 this month, it's unlikely replacing Dalbec with Rizzo would have done much of anything.

And there aren't very many pitchers in baseball that go "6 to 7 innings regularly" so not sure who exactly you think they should have got. And almost literally every team in baseball would have loved to have added Berrios or Scherzer, but since you admit the Sox didn't have a package to get them that would have made any sense I'm not sure the point in bringing them up.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Rizzo has a .914 ops since he's been traded, Dalbec has an ops of .1080 this month, it's unlikely replacing Dalbec with Rizzo would have done much of anything.

And there aren't very many pitchers in baseball that go "6 to 7 innings regularly" so not sure who exactly you think they should have got. And almost literally every team in baseball would have loved to have added Berrios or Scherzer, but since you admit the Sox didn't have a package to get them that would have made any sense I'm not sure the point in bringing them up.
Exactly! The shitty performance is exclusively based on shitty performances by players that were performing way better prior to the AS Break (for whatever reasons... BABiP or regression or a bad stomach), along with a few boneheaded managerial moves. But what Bloom "could" have done wouldn't have made a difference
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Dalbec had three monster games where went 7-11 with 3 HR. But, the Sox scored 45 runs in those games. He actually somehow had a negative WPA in those three games because of when he did his damage.

You can split up Dalbec’s month into three chunks:

Aug 1-10: 4-16, 0 XBH, 2 bb, 8 k
Aug 11-14: 7-11, 2 2b, 1 3b, 3 hr, 1 bb, 0 k
Aug 15-19: 1-10, 0 XBH, 0 bb, 3 k

Rizzo has been worth 1.5 WAR this year compared to -1.3 for the combo of Dalbec (-0.8) and Franchy (-0.5). That’s almost a 3 win difference with 25% of the season to go.

I would love to think he’s figured something out but I am very skeptical. He may mash some AAA guys but he has massive problems with power pitchers, righties, on the road, etc.
 

scottyno

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Dalbec had three monster games where went 7-11 with 3 HR. But, the Sox scored 45 runs in those games. He actually somehow had a negative WPA in those three games because of when he did his damage.

You can split up Dalbec’s month into three chunks:

Aug 1-10: 4-16, 0 XBH, 2 bb, 8 k
Aug 11-14: 7-11, 2 2b, 1 3b, 3 hr, 1 bb, 0 k
Aug 15-19: 1-10, 0 XBH, 0 bb, 3 k

Rizzo has been worth 1.5 WAR this year compared to -1.3 for the combo of Dalbec (-0.8) and Franchy (-0.5).

I would love to think he’s figured something out but I am very skeptical. He may mash some AAA guys but he has massive problems with power pitchers, righties, on the road, etc.
You can do the exact same thing with Rizzo, he was 4/9 with 2 HRs in his first 2 games with the Yankees and 6/31 with 1 XBH and 1 case of COVID since then.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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You can do the exact same thing with Rizzo, he was 4/9 with 2 HRs in his first 2 games with the Yankees and 6/31 with 1 XBH and 1 case of COVID since then.
Rizzo’s production was much more useful to his team though; a 2 run single in a one run game like last night is worth more than a 3 run shot when you’re up 14-0. Bobby’s production was completely done in garbage time.

Rizzo has already added +0.2 WPA for the Yankees while Dalbec is -0.8 for the year. Bobby is well below replacement level, Rizzo is not.

Just think Rizzo has contributed a lot more positively to his team than Dalbec has this month and would expect that to continue.

(I apologize for beating a dead horse. Am just super down on Dalbec but would love to be wrong and hope he starts doing what he did last year and in spring training).
 
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scottyno

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Rizzo’s production was much more useful to his team though; a 2 run single in a one run game like last night is worth more than a 3 run shot when you’re up 14-0. Bobby’s production was completely done in garbage time.

Rizzo has already added +0.2 WPA for the Yankees while Dalbec is -0.8 for the year. Bobby is well below replacement level, Rizzo is not.

Just think Rizzo has contributed a lot more positively to his team than Dalbec has this month and would expect that to continue.

(I apologize for beating a dead horse. Am just super down on Dalbec but would love to be wrong and hope he starts doing what he did last year and in spring training).
It's really hard for a guy that has a .547 OPS this month and missed half his team's games due to covid to have contributed a lot more positively than anyone. He contributed a lot in 2 games and has been terrible since. Yes that will probably change, but it wouldn't have helped so far.

2 months of Rizzo vs 2 months of Dalbec will end up being a small difference in the final standings and would not have done much to prevent the current 6-11 month the Sox have so far.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Rizzo’s overall production with the Yankees is 272/386/528, mediocre start to August but he had the two monster games right when he was acquired.

He’s had three games with WPA over .1, the first two against the Marlins (.19, .34) and last night (.12). Dalbec hasn’t had a game with a WPA as high as Rizzo had las night since June 29. Despite playing so little, Rizzo has contributed more value than Dalbec.

With just one game separating the two teams, it’s very possible lots of things theoretically could have made a difference- it’s impossible to know what players would have done in different situations on different teams….at least in theory, though, it would have been nice to upgrade the below replacement level situation at first base. Wonder if they considered dealing Dalbec himself for an upgrade, or what kind of market he would even have.

Having said all that, I’d rather Dalbec start over Travis Shaw and with some crappy teams coming up, hopefully he’s able to hit some bombs.
 

cantor44

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Exactly! The shitty performance is exclusively based on shitty performances by players that were performing way better prior to the AS Break (for whatever reasons... BABiP or regression or a bad stomach), along with a few boneheaded managerial moves. But what Bloom "could" have done wouldn't have made a difference
Rizzo is also a gold glove first baseman. See: yesterday's game - Dalbec botches a very playable ball and two runs scored ... the ball hit, ironically, by Rizzo.

The team had too many blackholes on offense, especially at first base (despite Dalbec's recent surge). Adding a good field/good hit first baseman (like Rizzo) would have been much better than adding another DH/Outfielder, who creates a logjam/redundancy on the roster, and in fact has pushed JD to the field, thereby weakening the defense.

Rizzo would have helped the team on offense AND on defense.

Now, mind you, if Schwarber does play first base decently for most of the rest of the season, maybe all will be well. But the issue is more than just comparing Rizzo's offensive output vs. Dalbec's over the span of a couple of weeks.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Bump.

take away the Sox month with their best win differential and they are 70-55
take away the Sox month with their worst win differential and they are 76-49

last month’s 12-16 record has been upgraded this month to 13-6 so far, and the questions about 90 wins may be answered by this weekend as they have 88 wins as of this AM.

i would say they are “good”
 

bluefenderstrat

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Yes, they are indeed good. They survived the Covid outbreak that most of us assumed was going to end the season. Despite the absolutely embarrassing display some of our senior members have put on recently, this has been a successful season. Lots of ups and downs but far more entertaining than most of us expected back in March. Some huge decisions to be made once the CBA is in place (?) but the future looks bright. Chaim & Cora have done a great job.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They were faced with a brutal situation (partly of their own making) with the COVID outbreak- they could have Padre’d it up, but so far they have more than responded to the challenge. Dalbec has shown remarkable growth, and everyone has contributed. I personally feel much better about the teams future based on their response.

Now, don’t screw its up in the next week and a half..
 

bob burda

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Why?


Why?


Why mess with success by tempting fate and bumping this post? My superstition Spidey-sense alarms are going off like crazy now
Good cop here: after a 10 second count, eat a banana (enjoy the potassium) do some deep breaths, and as you eat maybe do some visualization of ballplayers in banana uniforms celebrating their 7th straight win in the Toilet....you're going to be just fine.
 
I love this. As someone who is very much outside the Boston media bubble I appreciate the insight into what some of the motivations behind the sports radio negativity might be. I am enjoying this season greatly, even though the team itself is pretty far down the list of my favorite teams, behind the WS teams and the '03 team by a margin. For me, I just really value baseball this year. After last year's non-season and continued COVID doldrums, having baseball on in the background most evenings when the kids get home from preschool (West Coast) is a pleasure. I was ready to struggle through a mediocre seasons just for the sheer joy of having baseball to watch at all. But mediocrity is not what we've gotten. This team has been very frustrating to watch at times. The defense has been infuriating, and there have been more than a few games where it felt like the offense just didn't show up at all against a poor quality pitcher. But despite all that there have been some incredible success stories and a tenacious team where there is always someone carrying the load. The team has been competitive basically wire to wire and even if they don't go deep into the playoffs that in itself is so much more than I expected.
 

bosockboy

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I love this. As someone who is very much outside the Boston media bubble I appreciate the insight into what some of the motivations behind the sports radio negativity might be. I am enjoying this season greatly, even though the team itself is pretty far down the list of my favorite teams, behind the WS teams and the '03 team by a margin. For me, I just really value baseball this year. After last year's non-season and continued COVID doldrums, having baseball on in the background most evenings when the kids get home from preschool (West Coast) is a pleasure. I was ready to struggle through a mediocre seasons just for the sheer joy of having baseball to watch at all. But mediocrity is not what we've gotten. This team has been very frustrating to watch at times. The defense has been infuriating, and there have been more than a few games where it felt like the offense just didn't show up at all against a poor quality pitcher. But despite all that there have been some incredible success stories and a tenacious team where there is always someone carrying the load. The team has been competitive basically wire to wire and even if they don't go deep into the playoffs that in itself is so much more than I expected.
And conversely, they absolutely could win the whole thing. Clear the wildcard game and it’s on. No one scares me.