The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?
- Thread starter grimshaw
- Start date
Outperforming our Pythag by 5 games. 2.5 games ahead of the ‘Stros, despite a -79 in run differential (+127 to +48). We’re making ‘em count.
The team's record on July 1 is just stunning. Seriously, a 100-win pace halfway through the season? At the beginning of the year, all I was hoping for was competitive games, after last year's team was just unwatchable on most nights. Heck, I would have been happy with 41-41 by July 1. Not only are they winning but they're also fun to watch. Feel like everything is gravy at this point, and I'm happy to go along for the ride for as long as it lasts.
They do whatever it takes to win games on a daily basis. Starters don’t do well? So what, their offense picks them up. Offense in a rut? So what, the pitching steps up and shuts down the opposition. They’ll come back in games they’re down and the pen shuts the door. It’s such a fun group to watch. Bloom has certainly proven he can scout talent too with Whitlock, Renfroe, and Kike.
Circling back to this post from Sunday. Huge indeed! They started with a couple squeakers and ended with a good old fashioned bludgeoning, and one four-game sweep later they are 20 games above .500 and 3 1/2 up on the division. The Rays must feel about us right now the way we felt when they were winning 10 in a row. I want to send all this back in time to SoSH in March arguing over whether the team was a fringe wild card contender or not. Things can turn around quick but in the meantime I am just enjoying it.
Now that the team is a bit over the halfway mark I'm pretty optimistic about the chances of a serious postseason run. That said, I think that there are a couple of reasons to be wary:
- As others have noted the Red Sox are now +4 games over their pythag. While those wins are now in the books, it does suggest that there has been some luck involved which may not hold up. The Rays are -1, Yankees 0, Jays and Astros a staggering -5, and White Sox -2.
- Perhaps more concerning is that the Red Sox are a massive +8 over their BaseRuns pythag. BaseRuns looks at the expected RS and RA numbers based on batting and pitching outcomes independent of sequencing etc. Perhaps there is reason to think that the Sox may be doing something that is contributing to their BaseRuns performance (they are scoring a little more than they "should" but mainly allowing significantly fewer runs than they "should") but it's also possible that this is luck. Rays and White Sox are 0, Yankees -2, Jays -4 and Astros -5.
- According to Umpire Scorecards the Red Sox have been among the teams that have benefited the most from umpiring discrepancies this season with a 60% favored rate and an average favor of +.16 runs (tied for second with the A's and Brewers and behind only Texas at +.23. The Yankees are -.02, Jays -.08, Astros -.12, White Sox -.13 and Rays dead last at -.14.
- The Red Sox have a Strength of Schedule of .496 so far and .500 the rest of the way. The Rays are at .505/.494, Yankees .501/.511, Jays .510/.497.
How does sequencing normalization deal with the fact that the Red Sox have three mashers in a row with a really good couple of bookends in Verdugo and Renfroe? They don't just happen to bunch up their hits. The guys who get almost all the hits on the team are bunched together in the lineup.
Wouldn't that characterize most lineups? Its not like managers spread out their good hitters. Maybe we're fortunate to have three guys have MVP-type seasons grouped together, but its not like most teams have a guy hitting 8th putting up numbers like that.
I'm pretty sure this could be offset by moving Verdugo into the lead off spot.
Yeah I think there are two main things to be "concerned" about going into the second half of the season. One is a bit of regression to the mean by the bullpen - they have an ERA of 3.42 but an xFIP of 3.97. That's still pretty good (7th in the league) but just by the law of averages we can probably expect a few more close games to be lost by the bullpen than what we saw in the first half. (On the other hand, the situation is reversed for Boston's starters, plus they will be getting Sale back, so those factors might very well cancel out any regression we see from the bullpen.)
Second is the strength of schedule as you point out. The Rays in particular have had a very tough first half of the season and should have a relatively easy second half. (The Yankees' SOS appears to be quite high mainly, I think, because they have to play the Red Sox and Tampa a lot more.)
Ultimately, it will be the intra-divisional games that will decide how successful this regular season is for the Sox. They still have to play the Yankees and TB 13 times a piece - put another way roughly a third of their remaining games are just against those two teams alone.
Jonathan Schoop has been playing 1B for the Tigers and is hitting 277/325/476 with 15 HR’s.
Might be a cheap 1B solution that could really lengthen the lineup a bit.
Might be a cheap 1B solution that could really lengthen the lineup a bit.
News for the Duran-stans. He's not going to the Olympics. Might signal that the Sox want him up sooner rather than later.
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1410992849907109895
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1410992849907109895
This year's lineup is one of the most unbalanced I've ever seen. There are three MVP level hitters, two All Stars, one or two average guys, and two or three of the worst hitters in baseball. I don't think many teams trot out Xander and Devers in the same lineup as Dalbec and Santana.
Interesting. That does suggest the front office might want him in Boston within the next 4-6 weeks.
Though not quite to Bogaerts/Devers levels, the Brewers regularly have Yelich, Adames, Navaraez and Wong (all with OPS+ above 120) in the same lineup as JBJ (45 OPS+) and Keston Hiura (54 OPS+)...and the pitcher's spot.
I, for one, can't wait for the Duran era to begin so we can say "no más" to Marwin Gonzalez and his sub-.600 OPS.
Start Jarren, pencil Kiké in as your starting 2B/#8 hitter, rotate Christian Arroyo in with those two, and let Marwin take over as Tzu-Wei Lin 2.0. That solves a lot of problems.
Start Jarren, pencil Kiké in as your starting 2B/#8 hitter, rotate Christian Arroyo in with those two, and let Marwin take over as Tzu-Wei Lin 2.0. That solves a lot of problems.
I know the odds of it actually working out are pretty slim, but I am tantalized by the thought of a mashing Franchy at 1B.
I don't know the answer to this question, but it's worth noting that most of the difference in the Sox's BaseRuns vs. actual performance comes from the pitching side, not the hitting. The Sox are averaging 5.18 runs per game while their BaseRuns say they "should" be at 5.07. Meanwhile the Red Sox have allowed 4.43 runs per game but BaseRuns indicates that they "should" be at 4.79. That's only a 2.2% difference on offense but an 8.1% difference on defense.
For the Brew Crew most of their difference is coming from the offensive side of the ball.
EDIT: Digging into the numbers I'm really not sure what is going on with the pitching. The Sox's ERA and xFIP are nearly identical, and their FIP is lower. The Sox's WHIP is awful (25th in baseball) but their strand rate is unremarkable (13th in baseball.) Sox pitchers have by far the worst BABIP in baseball (.326), but the defense doesn't seem to be an obvious problem (4th in UZR/150, 14th in Def and 15th in DRS).
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I’ve been bullish on Franchy getting his groove back after multiple injuries and a late start, but I’m especially so now that opposing pitchers can’t use substances to generate pitch break and whiffs at historically high clips, a window which basically covered Cordero’s spring training. I’m excited to see him back in Boston.
I haven't been as quick to promote Duran as some others here. I think/hope he's benefited from the Sox resisting his call up to this point in that this past 4-6 weeks has afforded him more time to work on his defense and any other aspects of his game that might need fine tuning. It appears this Olympic decision is an indicator that he'll be called up sooner rather than later and perhaps an indicator that another move may be right around the corner. If Duran gets promoted and the "hole" in the outfield filled with a guy who should lengthen the batting order Chavis probably gets sent down as the corresponding move. Then I think Santana's roster spot (over Gonzalez) is likely used to strengthen the situation at first base. The idea of Schoop intrigues me a bit. Fifty games at first this season and well experience at second. Flexibility and an experience bat that could again help strengthen and lengthen the bottom of the lineup at the cost of about $2-2.5 M plus minimal MiL talent or perhaps Detroit takes Dalbec. Use remaining, allocated assets to find another useful arm that will compliment the return of Sale and Houck.
My trade target is Whit Merrifield. Very cheap, 1-2 years left, and fills the need at leadoff and 2B.
Doesn't have to be Schoop, doesn't have to be Dalbec, but he doesn't seem to be the long term answer at first and from previous posts I believe we're both in the sooner rather than later. Conventional thinking is the longer you wait, the higher the price. IMO, if you have a specific need or target, paying a bit more earlier on when their are less suitors isn't a completely flawed idea.
That would be a great get, but I think there will be more than a couple of suitors and being one of their best players, signed through next season with an option for '23 the price isn't going to be cheap.
This seems to suggest the Red Sox pitchers have been unlucky with balls in play but once the men are on base, they’ve done a pretty good job suppressing the huge damaging innings. Their K rate helps (4th in AL) and their HR rate (1st in AL) is quite low helping offset the higher BABIP.
I'd sit tight if I were Bloom. Keep your powder dry at least until Sale has a few rehab starts. With Edro looking good again, maybe he goes looking for a bat. It's going to be a fun summer, regardless.
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Tonight's theatrics are making me wonder if there is a significant extra advantage to having cannon arms on the outfield with the new extra innings rule. I know it's often been said that having shutdown relief pitching can support a team outperforming its pythag my allowing a disproportional win rate in close games. This might be another similar factor. The Sox are leading baseball in assists and it's not close.
I actually commented to a friend during the 10th inning tonight that with the new rules it might be a strategic advantage to have a reliever or two like Ottavino, who have high walk rates but low hit rates. With a runner already on second a walk is relatively harmless, but a hit is almost always a run against.
I don't hate the new rule nearly as much as I thought I would, but I think it really exacerbates the home team's advantage in extra innings in that they know how many runs they need to win.
Was that a cannon so much? Or was it a great combination of a shallow fly with Kike having full momentum towards home plate and a not so fast guy in Brown coming to the plate?
loved the play, and I don’t disagree with the need for good arms in the OF, but I am not sure that’s what we saw in this case
It was a hell of a throw and a perfect situation. Kike was able to launch himself towards home on the high, medium fly ball and he delivered a one hop rocket. Out of the hand I thought it was going up the third base line. It definitely went to the third base side of the plate, but that proved to be advantageous in the long run.
Casa was one of the players talked about on the SoxProspects podcast this week - Ian Cundall noted that Casas has some work to do on his 1B defense, although the work that he's done to develop as a hitter is a good indication that he can improve his defense with some similar attention there.
No one is, but IMO he’s a strong enough bet I wouldn’t worry about holding onto Dalbec. Either way, Dalbec isn’t the long term answer.
German Marquez is still near the top of the trade target heap for me. Pablo Lopez is up there too but he’d cost more in prospects. Not sure if the Reds consider themselves sellers but it would be cool to add to our collection of ex-Yankee Yankee killers and get Sonny Gray.
One idea that interests me is to trade for Byron Buxton, hand injury and all, with tan eyes toward extending him. (Edit: I could have sworn Buxton was a FA this winter but it’s actually next winter, so this is even less likely unless MIN wants to start the rebuild now].
Something like:
Sox get:
Buxton
Pineda
Sano (who maybe we DFA?)
Twins get:
Dalbec
Jimenez
Kutter Crawford (or other guys on the 40-man bubble)
Buxton starts in CF when healthy, pushing Kiké to 2B. Pineda is great starter depth if he’s healthy. Then use Duran to lead a package for Marquez or another controlled frontline starter.
One idea that interests me is to trade for Byron Buxton, hand injury and all, with tan eyes toward extending him. (Edit: I could have sworn Buxton was a FA this winter but it’s actually next winter, so this is even less likely unless MIN wants to start the rebuild now].
Something like:
Sox get:
Buxton
Pineda
Sano (who maybe we DFA?)
Twins get:
Dalbec
Jimenez
Kutter Crawford (or other guys on the 40-man bubble)
Buxton starts in CF when healthy, pushing Kiké to 2B. Pineda is great starter depth if he’s healthy. Then use Duran to lead a package for Marquez or another controlled frontline starter.
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If Hernandez is able to continue hitting, catching and throwing from CF, I think the team is much better and plans to replace him are unnecessary. Also, the notion of including Duran in a package for another starter when the team is doing as well as it is and Sale is on his way back seems like tinkering for the sake of tinkering.
Good plan. Then move Sano to Atlanta for Acuna and make a separate trade where we get Ohtani for Kike Hernandez (since Acuna makes Kike expendable) and we will be all set.
Now that Kike has gotten regular time in center and has learned the walls at Fenway, he's taken enough of a step forward out there that's he's no longer an issue. If Sale comes back and can contribute, the only glaring weakness on the team is first base.
