The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

OurF'ingCity

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Gallo would fit right in. He's struck out 105 times in 333 PA's. He's leading the American League in strike outs. You think Dalbec pisses you off? Just wait.

Also, he hasn't played 1st since 2018.

Not going to happen.
I don't think they are going to trade for Gallo because the acquisition cost would be too high, but, for the record, Dalbec is currently sporting a 37.2 K% and 5% BB% compared to Gallo's 31.5% and 19.2% (which leads the majors among qualified hitters). They are not even remotely comparable other than the fact that they both strike out a lot. And Gallo was defensively average at first when he played there - the fact that he can play the outfield when necessary too is an added bonus.

Edit: beaten to it by JABO.
 

ehaz

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If we’re talking about 1B rentals (which I think is the easiest and most necessary upgrade) I’d love to get Anthony Rizzo.

He’s having a down year by his standards, but a 112 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at and his xwOBA indicates he’s been unlucky (.363 v .337).

The only tricky part is he’s owed the prorated part of $16.5M this year. Ownership would have to be OK with going over the luxury tax. The flip side is he should be relatively cheap to acquire re - acquisition cost.

Looking towards the playoffs, I think 2B/CF should be fine between Kike/Arroyo/Duran. Eovaldi/Sale/ERod/Pivetta should be a solid postseason 4. Bullpens can always use some reinforcements come October but that could come from within.

Kike
Verdugo
X
Devers
JD
Rizzo
Renfroe
Arroyo
Vazquez

That lineup is deep as hell. 1-7 murders the ball.
 

bosockboy

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If we’re talking about 1B rentals (which I think is the easiest and most necessary upgrade) I’d love to get Anthony Rizzo.

He’s having a down year by his standards, but a 112 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at and his xwOBA indicates he’s been unlucky (.363 v .337).

The only tricky part is he’s owed the prorated part of $16.5M this year. Ownership would have to be OK with going over the luxury tax. The flip side is he should be relatively cheap to acquire re - acquisition cost.

Looking towards the playoffs, I think 2B/CF should be fine between Kike/Arroyo/Duran. Eovaldi/Sale/ERod/Pivetta should be a solid postseason 4. Bullpens can always use some reinforcements come October but that could come from within.
If the Cubs picked up half we might squeeze him under. Honest question, does Rizzo’s refusal to get vaccinated enter the decision?
 

ehaz

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If the Cubs picked up half we might squeeze him under. Honest question, does Rizzo’s refusal to get vaccinated enter the decision?
Ugh I didn’t even know about this. Really? He’s a cancer survivor…
 

BornToRun

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If we’re talking about 1B rentals (which I think is the easiest and most necessary upgrade) I’d love to get Anthony Rizzo.

He’s having a down year by his standards, but a 112 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at and his xwOBA indicates he’s been unlucky (.363 v .337).

The only tricky part is he’s owed the prorated part of $16.5M this year. Ownership would have to be OK with going over the luxury tax. The flip side is he should be relatively cheap to acquire re - acquisition cost.

Looking towards the playoffs, I think 2B/CF should be fine between Kike/Arroyo/Duran. Eovaldi/Sale/ERod/Pivetta should be a solid postseason 4. Bullpens can always use some reinforcements come October but that could come from within.

Kike
Verdugo
X
Devers
JD
Rizzo
Renfroe
Arroyo
Vazquez

That lineup is deep as hell. 1-7 murders the ball.
Maybe package him with a certain scarecrow looking reliever?
 

chawson

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Is there a tremendous difference between Arroyo and Merrifield? Aside from one of them having an excellent ‘80s-style baseball name? Merrifield has been a slightly better hitter this year and has a clear edge in baserunning and contact skills, but factoring his age, contract, and modest decline, I’m not sure that the upgrade is worth it.

In fact, I think that’s how Bloom should sell Arroyo at the deadline: a poor man’s Whit Merrifield. We’ve got plenty of infield depth until Downs is ready (Marwin, Santana, Wong, Arauz, Chavis, maybe Potts) and could play Kiké there more once Cordero/Duran come up. There’s gotta be a rebuilding team that values Arroyo as a cheap, versatile 3-win regular.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is there a tremendous difference between Arroyo and Merrifield? Aside from one of them having an excellent ‘80s-style baseball name? Merrifield has been a slightly better hitter this year and has a clear edge in baserunning and contact skills, but factoring his age, contract, and modest decline, I’m not sure that the upgrade is worth it.

In fact, I think that’s how Bloom should sell Arroyo at the deadline: a poor man’s Whit Merrifield. We’ve got plenty of infield depth until Downs is ready (Marwin, Santana, Wong, Arauz, Chavis, maybe Potts) and could play Kiké there more once Cordero/Duran come up. There’s gotta be a rebuilding team that values Arroyo as a cheap, versatile 3-win regular.
Soooo, Bloom should trade the best 2B the team has had this year (when healthy) for what exactly?

That seems like the sort of thing a team 10 games under .500 does at the trade deadline, not a team with the most wins in baseball.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Arroyo has 0.8 career WAR. Merrifield is 15.8.
To be fair, Merrifield is six years older and has a couple seasons head start in the service time department. When he debuted, he was older than Arroyo is now. I think chawson was making the point that they're similar players in 2021, and arguably Arroyo is still on the way up in his career trajectory.
 

nattysez

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Franchy is starting at 1b for the WooSox tonight. What other teams need a first baseman? I wonder how much of a haul the Cubs can really demand for a half-season of Rizzo.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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To be fair, Merrifield is six years older and has a couple seasons head start in the service time department. When he debuted, he was older than Arroyo is now. I think chawson was making the point that they're similar players in 2021, and arguably Arroyo is still on the way up in his career trajectory.
His point is that if you squint at the rate stats that Arroyo has put up in 43 games this year while Alex Cora mixes and matches lineups and compare it to the rate stats that Merrifield has put up while playing in 85 out of Kansas City's 85 games (currently on pace for his third consecutive non-covid season with 700+ PAs), the rate stats are kinda similar. Therefore (in his view) the only thing that Merrifield a better player is the fact that Merrifield is also one of the best baserunners in the league, maybe the very best.

Kick behind the tires of those rate stats and you might notice that Christian Arroyo's RC+ is built on an unsustainable .330 BABIP, that his xOBA is .291, which is in line with his career norms, rather than his current .331 OBA, and that his 26.7 K% and 4.1% BB% are both bad. While in contrast Merrifield's 13.2% K% and 7.3% BB% makes him an elite contact hitter in the current game and his .327 OBA is well supported by his xOBA of .320. I suppose except for Merrifield's elite contact skills, his elite baserunning, his extreme durability, and his track record of consistent offensive performance, maybe they are about equal.

I admit however that Merrifield is does not have the upside of a franchise defining superstar with a 1.176 OPS like Byron Buxton. But can we please stop comparing our scrubs to other teams allstars. It's embarassing.
 

chawson

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To be fair, Merrifield is six years older and has a couple seasons head start in the service time department. When he debuted, he was older than Arroyo is now. I think chawson was making the point that they're similar players in 2021, and arguably Arroyo is still on the way up in his career trajectory.
Yes, exactly my point, thanks. I don’t think Arroyo’s supplanted Downs as the 2B of the future for us. He’s had a good (and slightly lucky) 150 PAs, but he’s established himself as a major leaguer and has developed a rep as a sparkpluggy, good character guy.

The Rockies, Tigers, and Pirates to name a few are expected to trade middle infielders this month. Guys like Cron, Jon Gray, Fulmer and Moran are all roughly in the ballpark of Arroyo’s value.
 

chawson

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His point is that if you squint at the rate stats that Arroyo has put up in 43 games this year while Alex Cora mixes and matches lineups and compare it to the rate stats that Merrifield has put up while playing in 85 out of Kansas City's 85 games (currently on pace for his third consecutive non-covid season with 700+ PAs), the rate stats are kinda similar. Therefore (in his view) the only thing that Merrifield a better player is the fact that Merrifield is also one of the best baserunners in the league, maybe the very best.

Kick behind the tires of those rate stats and you might notice that Christian Arroyo's RC+ is built on an unsustainable .330 BABIP, that his xOBA is .291, which is in line with his career norms, rather than his current .331 OBA, and that his 26.7 K% and 4.1% BB% are both bad. While in contrast Merrifield's 13.2% K% and 7.3% BB% makes him an elite contact hitter in the current game and his .327 OBA is well supported by his xOBA of .320. I suppose except for Merrifield's elite contact skills, his elite baserunning, his extreme durability, and his track record of consistent offensive performance, maybe they are about equal.

I admit however that Merrifield is does not have the upside of a franchise defining superstar with a 1.176 OPS like Byron Buxton. But can we please stop comparing our scrubs to other teams allstars. It's embarassing.
Nah that’s not my point, but you’re right that I think we should trade for Buxton.

Edit: To clarify, I do not think we should trade for Whit Merrifield, a solid but aging contact hitter with a 108 wRC+ the last three seasons who the Royals should have moved sooner. Going forward, I think Arroyo’s productivity eclipses Merrifield’s sooner than people think.

In fact, that’s a good reason to move him. He’s gained a lot of value since being a near-ST cut four months ago, but Jeter Downs is probably ready next summer. Given Arroyo’s draft pedigree, you could make a pretty convincing case for him as a cheap long-term regular for a second-division team — like Merrifield has been.
 
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sean1562

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Hasn't Downs been pretty mediocre in AAA? Arroyo has been solid but injured this season. I doubt any team is going to look at this guy we signed for nothing and trade anything of value after 150 PAs. Downs could very easily be terrible, Marwin is gone after this season, and Arroyo is cheap and under control through 2025. Why trade him now?
 

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Hasn't Downs been pretty mediocre in AAA? Arroyo has been solid but injured this season. I doubt any team is going to look at this guy we signed for nothing and trade anything of value after 150 PAs. Downs could very easily be terrible, Marwin is gone after this season, and Arroyo is cheap and under control through 2025. Why trade him now?
I like Arroyo quite a bit and I wouldn't trade him. However, the fact that we signed him for nothing is totally irrelevant in evaluating his current value.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Nah that’s not my point, but you’re right that I think we should trade for Buxton.

Edit: To clarify, I do not think we should trade for Whit Merrifield, a solid but aging contact hitter with a 108 wRC+ the last three seasons who the Royals should have moved sooner. Going forward, I think Arroyo’s productivity eclipses Merrifield’s sooner than people think.

In fact, that’s a good reason to move him. He’s gained a lot of value since being a near-ST cut four months ago, but Jeter Downs is probably ready next summer. Given Arroyo’s draft pedigree, you could make a pretty convincing case for him as a cheap long-term regular for a second-division team — like Merrifield has been.
I realize you're just trolling at this point, but Merrifield has a higher WAR than JD Martinez, Kyle Schwarber or Juan Soto so far this season and by the end of 2021 he will accumulate more WAR than Christian Arroyo will accumulate over his entire career. The fact that we are looking to upgrade from Christian Arroyo for a better second baseman should tell you everything you need to know about Christian Arroyo's value to another franchise, which is only slightly more than zero. And if the Twins make Buxton available, and they will not, the starting price would be three top prospects or established cost controlled young players. Like, I dunno, maybe Casas, Duran and Whitlock?

It turns out that even second division teams are actually trying to win games, not just give away their stars for replaceable parts.
 

scottyno

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Unless the Sox fall apart in the next month selling Arroyo (or really selling anyone) makes no sense unless they get ridiculously blown away with an offer. Teams with the most wins in baseball at the deadline don't sell.
 

lurker42

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I realize you're just trolling at this point, but Merrifield has a higher WAR than JD Martinez, Kyle Schwarber or Juan Soto so far this season and by the end of 2021 he will accumulate more WAR than Christian Arroyo will accumulate over his entire career. The fact that we are looking to upgrade from Christian Arroyo for a better second baseman should tell you everything you need to know about Christian Arroyo's value to another franchise, which is only slightly more than zero. And if the Twins make Buxton available, and they will not, the starting price would be three top prospects or established cost controlled young players. Like, I dunno, maybe Casas, Duran and Whitlock?

It turns out that even second division teams are actually trying to win games, not just give away their stars for replaceable parts.
I think you're actually just talking past each other a bit.

Some people are going to look at Arroyo's draft pedigree and parts of his minor league track record and conclude that his performance this year is a not-unexpected step forward by a guy who had his development slowed by injuries, and that we can reasonably expect him to maintain more or less this level of performance going forward. Those people are going to see Merrifield as a marginal upgrade that wouldn't be worth the cost.

Some people are going to look at his major league track record and his underlying batted ball numbers and conclude that his performance this year has been lucky, and he'll regress back to being a fringe major leaguer. Those people are going to see Merrifield's track record of being an above-average regular as something worth paying to acquire.

I'm guessing that most people are in the second group, but that may be just because that's where I am. I would also argue that, based on his acquisition cost, most major league executives are in that group. But there is definitely a valid argument supporting the first group's viewpoint as well.
 

chawson

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I realize you're just trolling at this point, but Merrifield has a higher WAR than JD Martinez, Kyle Schwarber or Juan Soto so far this season and by the end of 2021 he will accumulate more WAR than Christian Arroyo will accumulate over his entire career. The fact that we are looking to upgrade from Christian Arroyo for a better second baseman should tell you everything you need to know about Christian Arroyo's value to another franchise, which is only slightly more than zero. And if the Twins make Buxton available, and they will not, the starting price would be three top prospects or established cost controlled young players. Like, I dunno, maybe Casas, Duran and Whitlock?

It turns out that even second division teams are actually trying to win games, not just give away their stars for replaceable parts.
Hey man, I have no idea why you’re so fired up about this and you’re talking well past what I’m saying.

I never said Christian Arroyo is “equal to” Whit Merrifield this year or career wise. I asked if there’s a big enough difference between the two players to warrant acquiring the more famous one. I suggested that given our depth at 2B and emerging top prospect there that Arroyo, a convincing late-bloomer regular with potential upside, could be swapped somewhere that could give him more playing time, and we’d be fine.

If you’re still pissed I think it’s a good gamble to trade for Buxton and try to extend him, I don’t know what to tell you. Buxton’s injury history and upside makes him an odd case, but I’m hardly the first to suggest he could be on the move and the Baseball Trade Values calculator says he’s worth far, far less than what you threw out there — Downs alone sounds about right. Again, special case, who knows! But the Twins are entering full teardown and could get nothing for him if he’s hurt. The team that trades for him is going to want to extend him, and deep-pocketed enough (in cash and prospects) to do it. Buxton would be a god here, and given the circumstances, it’s a somewhat unorthodox move that seems like something Bloom would be good at. It’s also just like, kinda fun to discuss on a low-stakes baseball message board during hot stove season.

2B Adam Frazier to the Red Sox for 2B/SS Jeter Downs is the first proposal on this list. (I thought this was a joke at first)
https://theathletic.com/2691954/2021/07/07/which-prospects-could-pirates-land-in-deadline-deals-and-whos-out-of-reach-jim-bowden-weighs-5-trade-proposals/
No thanks, Jim Bowden.

Unless the Sox fall apart in the next month selling Arroyo (or really selling anyone) makes no sense unless they get ridiculously blown away with an offer. Teams with the most wins in baseball at the deadline don't sell.
We’re not “selling” but I fully expect we’ll trade a player or three from the 40-man. Bloom loaded the roster with modest upside, flippable players. Factoring the upcoming 40-man crunch and the reality that we’re way ahead of our projected contention window, I wouldn’t be surprised if the deadline deals are dynamic.
 

joe dokes

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Unless the Sox fall apart in the next month selling Arroyo (or really selling anyone) makes no sense unless they get ridiculously blown away with an offer. Teams with the most wins in baseball at the deadline don't sell.
Arroyo is the perfect guy to play on a team that's a contender but building too. Effective now, costs nothing, but ultimately expendable. After the season.
 

scottyno

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We’re not “selling” but I fully expect we’ll trade a player or three from the 40-man. Bloom loaded the roster with modest upside, flippable players. Factoring the upcoming 40-man crunch and the reality that we’re way ahead of our projected contention window, I wouldn’t be surprised if the deadline deals are dynamic.
Trading Arroyo when there's really no viable replacement (you want Marwin or Chavis as your starting 2b when you're trying to win a pennant?) would be selling
 

nvalvo

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Trading Arroyo when there's really no viable replacement (you want Marwin or Chavis as your starting 2b when you're trying to win a pennant?) would be selling
I think most of the scenarios we were kicking around a few months ago paired an Arroyo deal with calling up Duran for CF, and then starting Hernández at 2B.
 

scottyno

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I think most of the scenarios we were kicking around a few months ago paired an Arroyo deal with calling up Duran for CF, and then starting Hernández at 2B.
There isn't much reason to expect a rookie Duran to play better than either Hernandez or Arroyo are playing right now, they're on pace for 3-4 war per 162 seasons
 

beautokyo

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I still don't even see why Arroyo's name keeps popping up when Chavis is the logical piece to get rid of. There is a difference I know but maybe a 3rd/4th round pick thrown in would make up for it.
 

nighthob

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Trading Arroyo when there's really no viable replacement (you want Marwin or Chavis as your starting 2b when you're trying to win a pennant?) would be selling
I think his idea is to move Kiké to 2B after Duran takes over CF and use Arroyo as trade bait to add to this year's team. You seem to think that any trades are selling in a pejorative sense of the word. It's not. If Duran can handle CF and Arroyo helps them add pitching or a competent 1B that's hardly "selling".
 

scottyno

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I think his idea is to move Kiké to 2B after Duran takes over CF and use Arroyo as trade bait to add to this year's team. You seem to think that any trades are selling in a pejorative sense of the word. It's not. If Duran can handle CF and Arroyo helps them add pitching or a competent 1B that's hardly "selling".
The trade deadline is in 3 weeks, that's not very much time to figure out if Duran can be a starting caliber center fielder on a contending team, but you're right, if you have a crystal ball and can figure out he's already a 4 win caliber player in 3 weeks then it might make some sense, even then probably not.

Since I don't think that's possible, I think Arroyo is more valuable to this roster than an equivalent pitcher, both because right now the pitching is actually decently better than the offense, and because they have much more short term help coming in house for the pitching than the hitting.
 

nighthob

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Which leads to the problem is how long does Arroyo’s luck hold up? Honestly I think Duran is going to be able to replace Arroyo offensively. Upgrading 1B is something they do need to do if they hope to win this year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Which leads to the problem is how long does Arroyo’s luck hold up? Honestly I think Duran is going to be able to replace Arroyo offensively. Upgrading 1B is something they do need to do if they hope to win this year.
Why is the assumption that Arroyo has been lucky? He was a first round draft pick for a reason. Isn't it possible he is the player we've seen this year, and can continue to be going forward?

I'd rather keep Arroyo where he is, doing what he's doing, than pin my hopes to a rookie.
 

nighthob

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Why is the assumption that Arroyo has been lucky? He was a first round draft pick for a reason. Isn't it possible he is the player we've seen this year, and can continue to be going forward?
His BABIP is high, that’s the definition of good luck. I think chawson’s point was that Arroyo’s value will likely never be higher than it is now, and now’s the time when they could use him to close a real weakness. Personally I feel a Schoop rental is probably cheaper and makes more short term sense with Casas waiting in the wings.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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His BABIP is high, that’s the definition of good luck. I think chawson’s point was that Arroyo’s value will likely never be higher than it is now, and now’s the time when they could use him to close a real weakness. Personally I feel a Schoop rental is probably cheaper and makes more short term sense with Casas waiting in the wings.
.330 is hardly a super lucky BABIP. Higher than his career average, to be certain, but it's not like he has a big sample size in which his created that average.

Rafael Devers' BABIP right now is .329. Bogaerts' is .354. Martinez's is .347. Guess they're just lucky too. I'm not sold on BABIP as a reliable indicator of anything, especially in the shift era.

Besides, if he's really just "lucky" and the Sox want to sell high on him as a result, shouldn't every other team recognize that as well? Which would poke a hole in the "his value has never been higher" idea.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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.330 is hardly a super lucky BABIP. Higher than his career average, to be certain, but it's not like he has a big sample size in which his created that average.

Rafael Devers' BABIP right now is .329. Bogaerts' is .354. Martinez's is .347. Guess they're just lucky too. I'm not sold on BABIP as a reliable indicator of anything, especially in the shift era.

Besides, if he's really just "lucky" and the Sox want to sell high on him as a result, shouldn't every other team recognize that as well? Which would poke a hole in the "his value has never been higher" idea.
I with this. I'm suspecting that Bloom has identified players that have bat skills that can push their luck on batted balls just enough to make a difference. Devers, X and JDM are all incredibly skilled at bat control and I really am starting to think that their higher BABiP is indicative of a skill. Possibly Arroyo too
 

PrometheusWakefield

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I mean, I can't bring you guys fully up to speed on the past decade of offensive baseball statistics, but you should know that they created this whole set of statistics that look at how hard balls are hit and at what launch angle, compare those numbers to other players exit velocities and launch angles, and on that basis they determine the "expected batting average", "expected slugging percentage" and "expected OBA". Bogaerts expected BA is .298, and his expected SLG is .506. JD has an xBA of .281 and an xSLG of .530. Devers has a xBA of .293 and a xSLG of .599. This is not Chaim Bloom's special sauce, it's publicly available information you can look up for yourself on Fangraphs. It's extremely important to understand this kind of data if you want to have informed opinions about what is happening in baseball.

Christian Arroyo? His xBA is .229, his xSLG is .379 and his xOBA is .291. This is a player whose peripherals have not improved from his replacement-level career norms. He's a .220 hitter with poor contact skills and a little bit of power who is getting a little lucky and who Cora is using disproportionately against lefties to improve his numbers slightly. No professional baseball team in 2021 is going to have a hard time telling the difference between Christian Arroyo and a quality baseball player.
 
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grimshaw

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Arroyo's not the kind of guy you throw in the ole trade simulator and pop out an obvious match. He's a post prospect having the best 150 PA of his career and filling a hole the Sox have since Downs isn't ready. Maybe he's useful to a team like the Pirates who may move Frazier, or another team who enjoys cheap, vanilla players, but he's still closer to a lottery ticket than a regular so it's hard to figure they'd get enough value to pull the trigger. FWIW, the 4% walk rate is what I worry about more than the slightly inflated BABIP.

I like him and hope they just ride it out with him and see what happens.
 
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chawson

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.330 is hardly a super lucky BABIP. Higher than his career average, to be certain, but it's not like he has a big sample size in which his created that average.

Rafael Devers' BABIP right now is .329. Bogaerts' is .354. Martinez's is .347. Guess they're just lucky too. I'm not sold on BABIP as a reliable indicator of anything, especially in the shift era.

Besides, if he's really just "lucky" and the Sox want to sell high on him as a result, shouldn't every other team recognize that as well? Which would poke a hole in the "his value has never been higher" idea.
It’s less about cashing in on favorable luck than recognizing that he’s a starting-caliber player without an opportunity. He’s blocked by superstars at his natural position (3B) and shortstop, and I’m assuming Bloom still prefers Downs long-term.
I mean, I can't bring you guys fully up to speed on the past decade of offensive baseball statistics, but you should know that they created this whole set of statistics that look at how hard balls are hit and at what launch angle, compare those numbers to other players exit velocities and launch angles, and on that basis they determine the "expected batting average", "expected slugging percentage" and "expected OBA". Bogaerts expected BA is .298, and his expected SLG is .506. JD has an xBA of .281 and an xSLG of .530. Devers has a xBA of .293 and a xSLG of .599. This is not Chaim Bloom's special sauce, it's publicly available information you can look up for yourself on Fangraphs. It's extremely important to understand this kind of data if you want to have informed opinions about what is happening in baseball.

Christian Arroyo? His xBA is .229, his xSLG is .379 and his xOBA is .291. This is a player whose peripherals have not improved from his replacement-level career norms. He's a .220 hitter with poor contact skills and a little bit of power who is getting a little lucky and who Cora is using disproportionately against lefties to improve his numbers slightly. No professional baseball team in 2021 is going to have a hard time telling the difference between Christian Arroyo and a quality baseball player.
I think most people here understand this stuff. Arroyo’s not a star, he’s not hitting like Bogaerts or JDM, that’s not a new baseline. But over the last month (seeing post-spin pitchers and regular playing time), Arroyo’s xwOBA is .386, including a .370 mark against RHP. His EV is 92.6 mph. This is all pretty SSS, but it suggests to me that he’s capable of holding his own in a normal pitching environment.

Maybe Bloom thinks Downs is the expendable one? I don’t know. It’s very possible and he’d surely fetch more in a trade. But it seems to me that not moving one of them — while Arroyo plays like a solid regular or Downs is still a Top 50 prospect — is a missed opportunity.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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I mean, I can't bring you guys fully up to speed on the past decade of offensive baseball statistics, but you should know that they created this whole set of statistics that look at how hard balls are hit and at what launch angle, compare those numbers to other players exit velocities and launch angles, and on that basis they determine the "expected batting average", "expected slugging percentage" and "expected OBA". Bogaerts expected BA is .298, and his expected SLG is .506. JD has an xBA of .281 and an xSLG of .530. Devers has a xBA of .293 and a xSLG of .599. This is not Chaim Bloom's special sauce, it's publicly available information you can look up for yourself on Fangraphs. It's extremely important to understand this kind of data if you want to have informed opinions about what is happening in baseball.

Christian Arroyo? His xBA is .229, his xSLG is .379 and his xOBA is .291. This is a player whose peripherals have not improved from his replacement-level career norms. He's a .220 hitter with poor contact skills and a little bit of power who is getting a little lucky and who Cora is using disproportionately against lefties to improve his numbers slightly. No professional baseball team in 2021 is going to have a hard time telling the difference between Christian Arroyo and a quality baseball player.
I get it.... but you really think that Bloom and other executives go to public information to take a deeper look at players? I'm suspecting that they don't. That they have a whole other set of confidential information that can extrapolate and dig a little deeper into those public numbers. Just a small teensy skill set like hand-eye coordination and wrist-fast twitch action could be the difference in .010 points of BABiP. Am I speculating on this? Absolutely. But for whatever reason, Arroyo is not regressing (yes, SSS.... but SSS is all he's ever had, along with injuries) so I don't think we can really extrapolate anything at all from his history as to what sort of "true" player he is.
 

shaggydog2000

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Apr 5, 2007
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He's dead ... so 0.0
You're really putting a dent in my plans for the team of ringers I was going to put together for my Power Plant softball team.

Arroyo is fine. He may be slightly overperforming his underlying numbers, but some players can ride that luck for a short season. He's also a very good 2B, with the highest UZR/150 among players with more than 300 innings at the position, and his DRS and RPM would put him among the top players if pro rated as well. I get the urge to optimize, but he's not really the problem. And even if you added another bat, he's a much better option as a cost controlled utility player in the future.

Dalbec is a 1B who can't field and can't hit righties. That's 70% of the pitchers out there. I think he's the obvious place to upgrade.
 

YTF

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Let's look at what Arroyo being on the roster does for this team. ATM he's helped to lengthen the batting order and that was a definite need and seems to play a solid 2B, but there are a couple of other things in play here. His being brought back up eliminated the need for Chavis to be on the Boston roster. It also lessens the need to start Gonzalez and Darwin as frequently as he and Hernandez can cover the needs at 2B and OF most days. The bigger need here IMO continues to be at 1B. If you move Arroyo to fill that need you become more dependent upon the likes of Chavis, Gonzalez to shore up 2B. Even if Duran is called up and Kike becomes your primary 2B, wouldn't you rather Arroyo be the back up and Kike available to play the OF while on minimizing the need to start Gonzales?
 

ngruz25

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I with this. I'm suspecting that Bloom has identified players that have bat skills that can push their luck on batted balls just enough to make a difference. Devers, X and JDM are all incredibly skilled at bat control and I really am starting to think that their higher BABiP is indicative of a skill. Possibly Arroyo too
The prime example of this, of course, is Derek Sanderson Jeter. He turned his decent power and inside out swing into a CAREER BABIP of .350.
 

sean1562

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Haven't most of our championship teams had bench players having lucky/career years? 2018 was Brock Holt's best or second best season. 2013 Mike Carp was somehow amazing and Daniel Nava had a career season. Having a deep bench loaded with league average hitters seems like a pretty solid strategy if you want to go deep into the playoffs. What are we trading Arroyo for anyway, prospects? CJ Cron? Why would the Rockies want Arroyo when they have Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers, who are basically the exact same player as Arroyo?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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2B Adam Frazier to the Red Sox for 2B/SS Jeter Downs is the first proposal on this list. (I thought this was a joke at first)
https://theathletic.com/2691954/2021/07/07/which-prospects-could-pirates-land-in-deadline-deals-and-whos-out-of-reach-jim-bowden-weighs-5-trade-proposals/
Seems like any trade involving Jeter Downs would be trading low on him. Considering he basically skipped AA, it's not a shock he's struggling a bit in AAA. I wouldn't be looking to move him at all.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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Haven't most of our championship teams had bench players having lucky/career years? 2018 was Brock Holt's best or second best season. 2013 Mike Carp was somehow amazing and Daniel Nava had a career season. Having a deep bench loaded with league average hitters seems like a pretty solid strategy if you want to go deep into the playoffs. What are we trading Arroyo for anyway, prospects? CJ Cron? Why would the Rockies want Arroyo when they have Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers, who are basically the exact same player as Arroyo?
The swap here would be Arroyo for Jon Gray, or maybe Gray and Cron with a minor league arm thrown in. The Rockies are by all accounts in disarray, but should trade Story and Cron and lost their 3B prospect Welker to drug suspension. Can’t pretend to know their plan, but that leaves McMahon and Rodgers (and maybe Hampson, who has been mostly playing CF) for four infield positions.