I have to say I am skeptical that we could get Jonathan Gray for Christian Arroyo, whatever baseballtradevalues says. Is there a comparable trade from the last few seasons you could point to, where a pitcher with Gray's resume and service time received a return comparable to Arroyo?
This seems like a good spot for my annual trade deadline question about why would any team trade two decent chips in a single deal for a fungible Red Sox player (and a minor league throw-in!), when they can move them in separate deals and get a better return?
Not perfect analogs, but Lance Lynn to NYY for Tyler Austin and a mL arm in 2018 is one. Happ to NYY for IF Brandon Drury and OF Billy McKinney the same year is another. Both those starters were making around $12M (Gray’s making $6M) but there was cash exchanged too. The Drew Pomeranz for Mauricio Dubon swap in 2019 is also kinda similar, even though Pomeranz was no longer a starter. Maybe the Jaime Garcia deal in 2017? Does Arroyo have more value right now than Jalen Beeks did in 2018?
I’m not exactly beating the drum for Gray here, just answering sean1562’s query about what a reasonable return from the Rockies would be. Gray’s widely expected to be moved and that xFIP is better than Pivetta, but he also makes $6M and is coming off an injury to his right elbow last month, and was shut down for right shoulder inflammation last September. Márquez is my guy there but Colorado brass said this week that he won’t be traded.
I thought that was a bit generous too. I'd have to guess his defensive range has suffered quite a bit. Not covering a lot of space, especially when adding in decomposition.
For some reason I was thinking of Gray as a relief pitcher. You're right, his numbers are better when compared to our starting rotation -- although given the impending return of Sale (and possibly Houck) I think my overall point stands (plus all the reasons you lay out).
Kinda? Defensively challenged seems a bit harsh but his D isn't that great. His speed covers up a lot of mistakes. His arm is also fringe average. His D is a passable weakness.
Isn't Hernandez is already a "decent" CF. And Arroyo is a decent @B. This just doesn't seem like an overall upgrade to me.
If you trade him and Hernandez regresses or Duran isn't ready then you're in a real hole without many options. If you keep Arroyo and he pumpkins you can move Hernandez to second and give Duran a shot.
I know he's a HOFer, but putting up replacement-level MLB play while dead would be his most impressive achievment.
Yes and yes. IMO the overall 2B/OF upgrade in this would be Hernandez, Arroyo and Duran > Hernandez, Arroyo and Santana. Santana goes, Gonzalaz remains at the end on the bench (for now) as your super sub and you look for a Cron-Schoop type to play first.
Sure. I actually thought about the Dubon trade as a potential comp, too. But Dubon was still 24 and still had that new-car smell — had just played in the Futures Game, etc. — and as you say, Pomeranz was reinventing himself as a relief ace.
Holy shit, that must have been the anesthesia speaking. Had eye surgery earlier in the day, looked fine when I posted it. LOL Let's try a second take on this and I'll correct the original post. You've got to admit this beats the usual, "This is what happens when I post before I have my morning coffee" or "This is what happens when I post after a night of drinking." excuses.
First, it’s not even my idea, I said that a Schoop rental would be my preference. I just said that idea (of trading Arroyo) was neither crazy nor stupid as they have a CF waiting in the wings and a guy that can easily cover 2B in Hernandez. Also, if you used Arroyo to acquire a 1B the question really isn’t whether or not Duran will be a better hitter than Arroyo, it’s whether he’d be a better hitter than Dalbec.
I was agreeing with you, I see no need to move Arroyo for another CF or 2B. In my scenario Duran make this possible but he'll require someone being moved from the 40 man roster which is where Santana (nee Darwin) comes in.
No, looking back I'm pretty sure it was a me thing, but thanks.
I agree. The bullpen is already very good - seven deep quality arms. Though I think it would be remiss to get fooled by the Jeckyll and Hyde rotation. They have all had their bright spots, and all, have been, sometimes more often than not, pretty bad. Sale will help. I think given that Duran and Cordero represent potential depth on offense, Bloom should focus his efforts to trade for a quality starter - at least at 3 type. That's the number 1 order of business, and, as Trotsky points out would also strengthen the bullpen by allowig Perez replacing Andreise or some such. If all they're willing to "afford" is one player before the deadline so be it, but let's hope it's a starter. If more than one player is in the cards, then next on the list would be a first base compliment, and then last a reliever.
Assuming Sale, Houck and another starter that Bloom should be looking to trade for, who else you bump from the rotation and subsequently from the pen. I mean Eovaldi and Eduardo have to stay, so we're looking at moving Pivetta in a trade or to the pen? What about Richards" Does he get moved for a #3?
2020 Brasier was better than 2019. But I am worried that the barrage of injury/illness will make him 2020 Josh Taylor.
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Houck enters the starting rotation. Perhaps he does. He had some good results in a very SSS in ML. His minor league stats are solid but not overwhelming. But even with Houck, Sale, and pitcher to be determined added, I think space can be made:
Do we really wanna move Perez to the pen with how solid he’s been all year? He’s outperforming his career marks by a fair margin but a 3.89/4.27 ERA and FIP isn’t something I’d be rushing to replace out of the 5th slot. Evo has been very good all year, Pivetta is solid and has shown he can be dominant at times, and Eddy has looked better his last 4 or so starts and the peripherals have always suggested that he’s being victimized by the baseball gods for some unknown sin. I think Richards is the only guy who should really be at risk of losing his spot.
Let's say he signs after his showcase. Figure, what, 3-4 weeks to ramp up his pitch count to reasonable starter levels (say 75 pitches)? Seems like he'd be good for 6-7 starts in late August and September at most. Don't see much use in pinning any hopes on that. He'd be a good insurance policy behind Sale and Houck if they can sign him to a minor league deal and see what he can do in Worcester, but I suspect he wants a big league deal.
I'd like to see another 1B option. With the clock ticking, I'm all for giving Franchy a shot and actually hoped he might have gotten the call up over Chavis when Santana wound up on the DL, but I also am looking at the over all luck that this team has had in avoiding the injury bug. I'd like to see a more dependable bat brought in to fill that slot to help keep the offense going should someone go down. Again that might be Franchy, but how long can they wait to be sure? Not counting Plawecki, your bench consists of Gonzalez and Chavis/Santana who along with Dalbec, leave us with with three options at first, yet none of them are optimal. With Arroyo, Hernandez and Gonzalez able to man 2B and Gonzalez able to back up Dalbec is there really a need for Chavis/Santana to be on the ML roster. Bring Franchy up, give him a look and make a decision on the position before you find yourself having to "settle" for what's available after other teams fill their needs.
No, but you might want to put ERod there. It's happened before when starters have off years. Derek Lowe began 2004 playoffs in the pen (though we know necessity pulled him out of there and he performed brilliantly) .... The starting pitching really hasn't been great. Maybe Sale is enough of an improvement. Though not sure why most think Houck is a sure thing ....
This is a beautiful entry and I think there is great validity to it. The whole is certainly greater than the sum of its parts with this Red Sox team (and I think Cora and Bloom should be credited for influencing as much). I am a professional actor and director (mostly theater), and I know from personal experience that chemistry and group dynamics are just as important, if not more important than the respective talents of individual performers on influencing outcomes. When casting a production it's wise to avoid the talented but egotistical malcontent. Time and again, a healthy, vital, positive group dynamic proves to be the most essential factor in "success."
