The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

cantor44

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Pythag is likely over-rated if teams care more about bullpen arms than about limiting blowouts, and/or have a shut-down bullpen.




Well, the results (as of now) are as follows, for all MLB teams:

Hitting:
The Sox are significantly below average in walks (#22nd overall), but at-average in Ks (#16 overall) (even with Dalbec and Franchy.)
They are #2 in hits. With the low walks this translates to a mildly above average OBP. (#12)

In terms of power, they're #3, with a strong doubles component to that (#1 by a mile), likely a Fenway feature. For homers they're #9.

All that translates into their being #6 in runs, despite our OPS+ being #10. They're within 2 runs of the #4 spot, so they're right up there. Houston leads by a ton, so the offense has been fine, but could have been better if Cora had not commited to play so much dead weight.


Pitching:
Our ERA is league average, but we're #3 in saves. Barnes needs to be considered for team MVP.

We give up a lot of hits (#3) (#4 in hits/9) and walks (#10) but are pretty good (#7) in homer suppression, and are #7 in strikeouts. Possibly why we're #4 in stranding runners.

Our ERA+ is #11, far better than our straight ERA. . .but it seems very much a high-wire act.


Mesh them together and you've got the 6th best record in baseball, 64-46. If Cora was better at talent evals, motivation, and not punting on travel days, we'd likely be 66-44, for the second best record.
Agreed on Barnes potentially being team MVP.
Offense may be fine, but wonder if it could be better with a more selective approach to the plate ... man do they expand the zone and hack their way to some very quick innings ...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Pythag is likely over-rated if teams care more about bullpen arms than about limiting blowouts, and/or have a shut-down bullpen.
This is a very good point. A good example is the game in June against the Jays where Ryan Weber was left in for six innings and 11 runs, followed by two innings from Marwin and Arroyo to close it out. The Sox clearly gave away that game to preserve the pen as it was 5-1 after three innings and the pen was generally rested and could have been used to keep it close. Subtract just 8 runs from the Jays total (assuming the full complement of relievers wouldn't give up 13 runs in 7.2 IP) and it boosts the pythag expected record by a win.

Pythag expected record is a useful gauge but it isn't necessarily gospel for the true talent level of a team.
 

Rovin Romine

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Agreed on Barnes potentially being team MVP.
Offense may be fine, but wonder if it could be better with a more selective approach to the plate ... man do they expand the zone and hack their way to some very quick innings ...
Oh, I wasn't suggesting they were using an optimal approach, so much as tossing some number into the ring for context.

I think there's certainly room to improve the offense overall. It's good, but dependent on clustering hits with that low OBP. (It's also not like they're anywhere near the point of dimnishing returns, or don't have some very low hanging fruit of a Dalbecian nature they couldn't pluck.)

Also, I should have said Whitlock/Barnes. The pen has had some excellent contributions all around, but W/B have a combined 96 innings pitched with only 18 earned runs allowed. Whitlock has been better than Barnes - but not everyone can thrive in a closer's role, so Barnes ought to get some extra credit for that.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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This is a very good point. A good example is the game in June against the Jays where Ryan Weber was left in for six innings and 11 runs, followed by two innings from Marwin and Arroyo to close it out. The Sox clearly gave away that game to preserve the pen as it was 5-1 after three innings and the pen was generally rested and could have been used to keep it close. Subtract just 8 runs from the Jays total (assuming the full complement of relievers wouldn't give up 13 runs in 7.2 IP) and it boosts the pythag expected record by a win.

Pythag expected record is a useful gauge but it isn't necessarily gospel for the true talent level of a team.
But you can’t take out blowouts on either side. For every game like that, there’s another lopsided Sox blowout.
Overall it levels out- why I think Pythag IS a good tool after the AS Game to start projecting the remaining season
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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But you can’t take out blowouts on either side. For every game like that, there’s another lopsided Sox blowout.
Overall it levels out- why I think Pythag IS a good tool after the AS Game to start projecting the remaining season
And other teams have similar blowouts in their results, both this year and over the many years that provided the data that first allowed Bill James to figure out his Pythagorean theory.
 

ledsox

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I did a little Pythag research.
Over the the last 5 years only one team has made the WS that didn’t finish in the top 2 in run differential in their league. That was the ‘17 Astros who were only 2 runs worse than the #2 Yankees.

Each of the last 5 WS featured a team that topped their league in run diff. Last year it was both teams.

It’s interesting that this period pretty much coincides with the statcast era which began in 2015 but that year it was Royals #3 vs Mets #5.
 

JimD

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If Cora was better at talent evals, motivation, and not punting on travel days, we'd likely be 66-44, for the second best record.
I don't see how Cora could be dinged for 'motivation'. The concept of come-from-behind wins has its flaws, but a team like Boston that leads MLB in this category certainly speaks to an underlying mentality that has been present most of the season (and which will very likely resurface once they string together a few wins). He has led this Sox team to a 20-12 record in one-run games and a 6-3 record in extra innings. The Blue Jays, a team whose underlying stats suggest they should be five games ahead of the Sox, are 6-12 in one-run games and 2-6 in extras by comparison. AC may not win any morality awards but he seems to know how to motivate his players more often than not.
 

Rovin Romine

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I don't see how Cora could be dinged for 'motivation'. The concept of come-from-behind wins has its flaws, but a team like Boston that leads MLB in this category certainly speaks to an underlying mentality that has been present most of the season (and which will very likely resurface once they string together a few wins). He has led this Sox team to a 20-12 record in one-run games and a 6-3 record in extra innings. The Blue Jays, a team whose underlying stats suggest they should be five games ahead of the Sox, are 6-12 in one-run games and 2-6 in extras by comparison. AC may not win any morality awards but he seems to know how to motivate his players more often than not.
That was a bit of droll quasi-trollery on my part. Cora gets his parts routinely and unreflectively buffed on the board. So, I just apply it evenly. Cora "led them" to their hot start and excellent one run record? Fine, he also "led them" to their recent doldrums.

But I do think it's fair to ask him to justify his Santana, Dalbec, and Marwin usage.

And travel-day punts.
 

curly2

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That was a bit of droll quasi-trollery on my part. Cora gets his parts routinely and unreflectively buffed on the board. So, I just apply it evenly. Cora "led them" to their hot start and excellent one run record? Fine, he also "led them" to their recent doldrums.

But I do think it's fair to ask him to justify his Santana, Dalbec, and Marwin usage.
It's fair to question Cora's moves, but the alternatives to Santana, Dalbec and Marwin have been Cordero, Chavis and (briefly) Arauz. It's not like he was benching a good player to let those guys play.
 

Rovin Romine

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It's fair to question Cora's moves, but the alternatives to Santana, Dalbec and Marwin have been Cordero, Chavis and (briefly) Arauz. It's not like he was benching a good player to let those guys play.
I think this falls under his role as head of the coaching staff. They've yet to develop or "reclaim" a position player, except maybe Arroyo, who wasn't given a consistent playing time even when he was healthy.

We have gotten a bunch of positivist drivel about "Getting Santana hitting," and the like, which tells me Cora's not very good at that portion of his job.

One could make a similar argument for pitchers.
 

Rovin Romine

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In any event, it seems we're at an inflection point. Although technically the Red Sox have a wild card spot at this point, it feels like the ship is taking on water.

I'd say this is because our overall lack of depth is showing at this point, and Cora's "Marwin/Vaz/Dalbec" lineups are no longer working. Couple that with a lack of starter effectiveness, and Cora's apparent inability to use a bullpen featuring Barnes/Whitlock/Sawamura/Taylor/Valdez to secure a win, in light of that starter slump.

Could they go on a hot streak? Sure. And I absolutey hope they do.

But at this point they need to win half their games. I think the system has the raw talent to make that happen, but it's not being used right now.
 

deythur

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In any event, it seems we're at an inflection point. Although technically the Red Sox have a wild card spot at this point, it feels like the ship is taking on water.

I'd say this is because our overall lack of depth is showing at this point, and Cora's "Marwin/Vaz/Dalbec" lineups are no longer working. Couple that with a lack of starter effectiveness, and Cora's apparent inability to use a bullpen featuring Barnes/Whitlock/Sawamura/Taylor/Valdez to secure a win, in light of that starter slump.

Could they go on a hot streak? Sure. And I absolutey hope they do.

But at this point they need to win half their games. I think the system has the raw talent to make that happen, but it's not being used right now.
Has this happened a lot this season? Last I saw stats, they were pretty good when it came to blown saves. Scoring runs seems to be the issue not the bullpen blowing games save for a few big ones from Ottavino lately.
 

Rovin Romine

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Scoring runs seems to be the issue not the bullpen blowing games save for a few big ones from Ottavino lately.
These things are synergistic. When you:
1) keep trying to milk your ineffective starters for innings (when you know they're ineffective),
2) relieve them (runners on) with crappy middle relievers, plus
3) start shrubs like Marwin (who are near-never pinch-hit for), and
4) preach aggressiveness to your hitters,

it's not entirely surprising if they start to press when they're looking at a 4 run deficit in the middle innings.
 

soxhop411

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https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/will-the-real-red-sox-please-stand-up-i-repeat-will-the-real-red-sox-please-stand-up.34250/latest
As I said in this thread, The entire lineup has been dog shit for more than a month. Trading for One hitter would not have solved that problem.

And that’s without even Talking about our entire rotation in a month + long tailspin
 

plucy

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a rock and a hard place

nazz45

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As I said in this thread, The entire lineup has been dog shit for more than a month. Trading for One hitter would not have solved that problem.

And that’s without even Talking about our entire rotation in a month + long tailspin
Sure, if all of those hitters continue to perform below their career averages the rest of the way. If injuries are involved - and with Xander that is a strong possibility - that trend would be more likely to continue. But given average health and average performance by established MLB hitters, it’s more likely Martinez, Bogaerts, Verdugo, Renfroe, even Vazquez would have some hot stretches too. So I think the holes, in the lineup at least, were fixable … except 1B.

There was a clear and obvious hole at 1B and they elected to go in a nonlinear direction with a very good power hitter who was injured and has no experience at the position. To me, it wasn’t an either/or with Schwarber and Rizzo. It’s conceivable they could have even had both, but perhaps that would have involved ownership eating the rest of Rizzo’s contract to offset the difference in prospect value. To be fair, we don’t and might never know exactly what was discussed. It very well could have been a no-brainer to turn down Bello and Downs, for example, for a 2 month rental.

But if the argument is that it was a sinking ship not worth investing in and that the starting pitch was not fixable (despite Sale and Houck as reasonable options to step into the rotation by mid August)…OK fine. But then why trade a prospect with actual value from all accounts for at best 40-45 games of Schwarber (pending playoffs). If anything, you’d argue they felt pretty good about the team/position despite any individual slumps if OK with trading for an injured rental.

Heck, the season long miscalculation at 1B even led to Arroyo doing whatever he did to his groin. His injury luck sucks so maybe he would have injured something else anyway. In a perfect Red Sox world, they acquire Rizzo before the Arroyo experiment and have a pretty deep lineup before even potentially adding Schwarber to the outfield mix.

Point is, I don’t think the struggles of a bunch of underperforming players in June/July (despite a still OKish record during that time) led the FO to inaction at the deadline. In fact, the big move they made was the opposite reaction to that since it was not a player that is likely to be here beyond this season. If the feeling is that the team was heading south, then trading anything of value for a rental is also a move worth criticizing.
 

jon abbey

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It is not so easy as some seem to think to fill 1B well in recent years, especially since I think defensive impact at 1B is underappreciated, a butcher can just kill you (hello April 2021 Jay Bruce). NY also struggled finding someone between Teixeira and Voit (2017 and 2/3 of 2018), and Voit can't stay on the field and is bad defensively when he does.

I am not totally sure why BOS has ruled out using Casas, though, and why you guys never seem to mention that (theoretical) possibility, especially now that he is back in the US. I mean, obviously they think he is not ready, but I think prospects need to be sped up as much as possible after missing 2020 and teams losing that year of control anyway. And what better time to see what you have in a prospect before when you have a big hole there and you have to decide what to do there next offseason? Then you end up trying to find someone for just one season, and then often end up in the same place that Ken T is bitching about. One of the main reasons TB is good is they trust their own farm players and if they don't, they trade them for guys who they do trust.

But I also think Peraza (in AA) replacing Gleyber at SS would likely be an immediate upgrade for NY right now, defense definitely and Gleyber isn't hitting much anyway. That's not happening either.
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I am not totally sure why they won't consider using Casas, though, and why you guys never mention that (theoretical) possibility, especially now that he is back in the US.
.777 OPS in 46 AA games is nice and encouraging, but sure as hell doesn't sound like a guy who is close to being ready for the bigs.
 

jon abbey

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.777 OPS in 46 AA games is nice and encouraging, but sure as hell doesn't sound like a guy who is close to being ready for the bigs.
Sometimes guys are better in MLB than in the minors, better lighting, whatever, but you know it happens. Florial in limited time in NY has looked better than he has in the minor leagues, just saying I see Casas listed as one of the top few 1B prospects in MLB, he just had a bunch of big HRs in the Olympics, and BOS needs someone.
 

Adirondack jack

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That was a bit of droll quasi-trollery on my part. Cora gets his parts routinely and unreflectively buffed on the board. So, I just apply it evenly. Cora "led them" to their hot start and excellent one run record? Fine, he also "led them" to their recent doldrums.

But I do think it's fair to ask him to justify his Santana, Dalbec, and Marwin usage.

And travel-day punts.
When speaking of true talent of a Red Sox manger it seems most prudent to speak Tito. Would Terry punt on travel-days? Would he overly rely on veterans during the dog days? Yes he would, to a fault sometimes.

But when the time came and you had to win a game in September or October Tito would, with unquestionable faith from the personnel, always press the right buttons. Does our current day genius have these skills? I don't know, but it seems like he sorta knows what he is doing and who are we to question it. Act weak when strong etc. etc
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Sometimes guys are better in MLB than in the minors, better lighting, whatever, but you know it happens. Florial in limited time in NY has looked better than he has in the minor leagues, just saying I see Casas listed as one of the top few 1B prospects in MLB, he just had a bunch of big HRs in the Olympics, and BOS needs someone.
I hear you, but I just don't think they've seriously considered messing with their development plan for one of their top prospects. Especially when the team is clearly more than just a first baseman away.
 

Rovin Romine

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When speaking of true talent of a Red Sox manger it seems most prudent to speak Tito. Would Terry punt on travel-days? Would he overly rely on veterans during the dog days? Yes he would, to a fault sometimes.

But when the time came and you had to win a game in September or October Tito would, with unquestionable faith from the personnel, always press the right buttons. Does our current day genius have these skills? I don't know, but it seems like he sorta knows what he is doing and who are we to question it. Act weak when strong etc. etc
Welcome back from your two week summer vacation. (Now, go check the standings.)
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Serious question here. Might he be someone that could man the spot for a week to 10 days until Schwarber gets here? Knowing that it's only for that amount of time, would that fuck with is development?
Unlikely. But what is likely is that he wouldn't be any better than the current guys during those 10 days.
 

grimshaw

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Sometimes guys are better in MLB than in the minors, better lighting, whatever, but you know it happens. Florial in limited time in NY has looked better than he has in the minor leagues, just saying I see Casas listed as one of the top few 1B prospects in MLB, he just had a bunch of big HRs in the Olympics, and BOS needs someone.
Cora was asked about this recently on a pregame and said Casas wasn't being considered. He implied that Olympic competition didn't mean a whole lot without actually saying it.
 

Rovin Romine

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Unlikely. But what is likely is that he wouldn't be any better than the current guys during those 10 days.
There's clearly a talent gap between AA/AAA and the majors. It may be possible that Casas and all our other players capable of hitting ML pitching at a league-averagish rate have fatal flaws that will not let them bridge that gap.

In that case they should be traded while their value is at an illusory high.

If not, there's no reason why one should't throw a Meises or an Ockimey or a Meneses (age 29) in the mix. We know Dalbec won't be catching on fire. Give the kids a cup of coffee. See what they can do.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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There's clearly a talent gap between AA/AAA and the majors. It may be possible that Casas and all our other players capable of hitting ML pitching at a league-averagish rate have fatal flaws that will not let them bridge that gap.

In that case they should be traded while their value is at an illusory high.

If not, there's no reason why one should't throw a Meises or an Ockimey or a Meneses (age 29) in the mix. We know Dalbec won't be catching on fire. Give the kids a cup of coffee. See what they can do.
There's one reason why they won't throw any of those guys in the mix: 40 man roster. Yes, they're Rule 5 eligible this winter. Yes, there are useless lumps we as fans don't mind seeing them jettison. But it's rare that any team, let alone one in contention, is going to cut veterans for unproven rookies. Hot shot, highly touted prospects maybe, but not 1-tool players or guys who've knocked around the minors for 10 years.
 

Rovin Romine

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There's one reason why they won't throw any of those guys in the mix: 40 man roster. Yes, they're Rule 5 eligible this winter. Yes, there are useless lumps we as fans don't mind seeing them jettison. But it's rare that any team, let alone one in contention, is going to cut veterans for unproven rookies. Hot shot, highly touted prospects maybe, but not 1-tool players or guys who've knocked around the minors for 10 years.
I don't disagree with the point you're making, or the prediction inside it, but I'd note it's not an outcome-related reason. Unless there's some coaching/scouting info we're not privy to, 2021 Danny Santana has no business being on the roster. They should fill his spot with the best option they have in system, or can reasonably trade for under the current rules.

Sometimes that's just a bunch of lottery tickets to be scratched - of which Santana was one. Here, the Sox have a few, but they continue to hold onto their first scrap of paper, hoping the numbers will somehow change.
 

sean1562

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The Red Sox went from 4 games up on TB to 4 game behind in 2 weeks.

This is not a good team. This is a profoundly mediocre team finding it’s true level.
This is a team whose 4 and 5 starters were heavily using sticky stuff and have been absolutely terrible since the crackdown. Richards and Perez may not start another game this season. Sale and Houck will be a huge improvement, our offense is still pretty good. ERod has been unlucky. The Yankees got shut out today.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Good teams don’t lose 8 games in the standings in 2 weeks. Good teams don’t blow 7-2 leads in the 6th. Good teams don’t run into five outs on the bathpaths over 3 games, or if they do their manager actually addresses the issue instead of brushing it off like Cora did yesterday.

And good teams don’t use Matt Barnes in the late innings. God he’s awful. Walking the number 9 hitter to bring the go-ahead run to the plate is completely unacceptable.

This road trip derailed the entire season.
 

brandonchristensen

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Good teams don’t lose 8 games in the standings in 2 weeks. Good teams don’t blow 7-2 leads in the 6th. Good teams don’t run into five outs on the bathpaths over 3 games, or if they do their manager actually addresses the issue instead of brushing it off like Cora did yesterday.

And good teams don’t use Matt Barnes in the late innings. God he’s awful. Walking the number 9 hitter to bring the go-ahead run to the plate is completely unacceptable.

This road trip derailed the entire season.
The Yankees did similar stuff a couple times this season. Rays were unstoppable and then couldnt win to save their life.

These DO happen, it’s just a matter if there is a bounce back or not. The other teams did.
 

grimshaw

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These are the combined head to head records of the 7 best teams in the AL

Astros - 26 and 16 (.620) with 9 left
Rays - 25 and 20 (.555) with 30 left
Sox - 32 and 26 (.552) with 21 left
Jays - 27 and 30 (.474) with 20 left
Yanks - 25 and 28 (.472) with 22 left
A's - 15 and 18 (.455) with 12 left
White Sox - 8 and 12 (.333) with 12 left

Add to that, the Sox got 6 vs the leading Phillies and an extra one against the Astros.

To me:
-The Astros are the juggernaut despite their relatively easy schedule
-The White Sox are paper tigers
-The Jays have played through more of the iron and made some big improvements.
-The A's are a pain in the ass and made some improvements as well, but don't have eye popping talent. In other words, they are the A's.
-The Yanks may have waited too long to make moves, but are playoff caliber with the acquisitions they made.
-The Rays are playing great ball but have the hardest schedule remaining by far.

The Sox aren't playing well, I get it. But they have fallen off this much and still are where they are.

Edit: Fixed Yankees record.
 
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scottyno

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Good teams don’t lose 8 games in the standings in 2 weeks. Good teams don’t blow 7-2 leads in the 6th. Good teams don’t run into five outs on the bathpaths over 3 games, or if they do their manager actually addresses the issue instead of brushing it off like Cora did yesterday.

And good teams don’t use Matt Barnes in the late innings. God he’s awful. Walking the number 9 hitter to bring the go-ahead run to the plate is completely unacceptable.

This road trip derailed the entire season.
The Dodgers started 13-2, people were talking about if they could set the all time wins record, and then they went 4-14 in their next 18 games, so yes, good teams do those things all the time.

And no the road trip hasn't derailed anything yet, would you have taken 65-49 and 2.5 games up in the playoffs with Sale coming back this week back in March? Pretty sure you would, so at this point who cares how they got here, just how they play the last 48 games.
 

jon abbey

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These are the combined head to head records of the 7 best teams in the AL
Yanks - 19 and 34 (.368) with 22 left
NY is 25-28 actually, 16-25 against the 3 ALE teams and 9-3 against the other three. Maybe you flipped the 9-3 part because it was too hard to believe?
 

BaseballJones

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The Yankees did similar stuff a couple times this season. Rays were unstoppable and then couldnt win to save their life.

These DO happen, it’s just a matter if there is a bounce back or not. The other teams did.
Yep. Starting on June 15, the Rays went on a 4-12 stretch, going from 2.0 up to 4.5 down in the standings.

This stuff can happen, even to really good teams. It’s a 162-game marathon, not to be cliche. It really is.

BUT... it’s about time for the Sox to turn it around.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Really surprised in light of the recent slide the team didn't take a shot at Hamels.

Lifeboat was still out there and instead he becomes LA's #4 or #5 starter.

I get not trading at the deadline because of the prospect cost, but this was not that. I fear Bloom has determined this team is just too far from being able to win this year.
Not picking on you specifically, bsj, as there were other similar comments, but I found yours first. But maybe the Sox made the right call here?