The Second War on Theis: Celtics trade for Daniel Theis

lexrageorge

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Another benefit of having Theis on the roster with regards to injury insurance.

Yes, it is true that if either Al or Robert Williams go down for the season or the entire playoffs, this team is not going very far, Theis or no Theis. But not every injury is season ending. And having Theis available in the event that either Al or RWill have to miss a game or two in the playoffs would be helpful. Same applies if one of them should get in foul trouble. Theis >>> Kanter right now in that situation.
 

Auger34

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Brad mentioned they acquired players who are “self aware”, essentially players who know their role and aren’t trying to do too much. I think that’s one of the biggest reasons why Theis fits better than Schroeder. He wants to be in Boston, he’s fine doing the dirty work and he’s got his multi year contract. I don’t think any of those things apply with Schroeder
 

NomarsFool

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Out of curiousity, why didn't Brad explore signing Theis as a FA last summer? I don't recall ever hearing about that as a possibility.
 

benhogan

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this deal will feel much better if Schroder stays in Houston past March 1

Schroder is also expected to stay with the team for the present, though there has been considerable speculation the former Boston reserve will be a buyout candidate before the annual cutoff date for postseason eligibility, this year falling on March 1.
 

Cellar-Door

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this deal will feel much better if Schroder stays in Houston past March 1

Schroder is also expected to stay with the team for the present, though there has been considerable speculation the former Boston reserve will be a buyout candidate before the annual cutoff date for postseason eligibility, this year falling on March 1.
I bet they keep him. Their moves make it clear they aren't desperate to save money this year (and how much could they really save, like $1M?), they could use someone vaguely capable at PG to help their young guys, and maybe they get lucky and Schroder signs there in the summer.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Out of curiousity, why didn't Brad explore signing Theis as a FA last summer? I don't recall ever hearing about that as a possibility.
Was that even a possibility cap wise? I'm assuming Theis wouldn't have taken much of a discount to return to Boston.
 

benhogan

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I bet they keep him. Their moves make it clear they aren't desperate to save money this year (and how much could they really save, like $1M?), they could use someone vaguely capable at PG to help their young guys, and maybe they get lucky and Schroder signs there in the summer.
don't trust Fertitta when it comes to saving $$$

this is a billionaire that fights tooth & nail to not pay single moms above minimum wage
 

Cellar-Door

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Was that even a possibility cap wise? I'm assuming Theis wouldn't have taken much of a discount to return to Boston.
yeah they would have had to do a S&T into a TPE. Possible, but would have made a lot of stuff difficult, also would have eliminated any chance for a big trade (hardcap) so probably not something they were willing to do especially since Fournier wasn't done yet.

don't trust Fertitta when it comes to saving $$$

this is a billionaire that fights tooth & nail to not pay single moms above minimum wage
Oh he's an asshole, but if he had given orders to save money they would have made different moves at the deadline (notably Gordon would be gone).
 

Eddie Jurak

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Theis was not productive with Houston, but his debut last night showed that rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. He looked like the same guy we traded a year ago. I think he'll be a consistent part of a 9-man rotation with the Celtics going forward this year as well as a guy who can step in when Rob is out.

Maybe he doesn't hold up well enough to deliver over the next 2 years of his deal (3rd year is a team option), but if that is the case we're talking about a moderate overpay (ie, giving $8M to a guy worth $6M) as opposed to a complete wasted. For this year, he'll be worth what they are paying him. And he is a way better fit on the team than Schroder was, especially with White coming in.
 

lovegtm

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If Theis is 19-20 Theis, and Horford is gone, that's $9M very very well spent. Daniel Theis is a much better center than the guys typically available for $5-7M in the summer. He has his matchup weaknesses, but Rob lets them work around that now that he can straight up defend every center in the league except Embiid.
 

mcpickl

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They trade Theis, making $5M, for essentially nothing, to get under the tax, and you hate the deal. They bring him back, making $9.0M, in exchange for some NBA flotsam and jetsam plus a good player who wans't a good fit here. You must think a) Theis can play and is a good value at $5.M (otherwise you would not care about giving him away for nothing) and b) Theis is overpaid at $9M. Fair enough. But that means we are modestly overpaying a guy who can fill a role here. What is so bad about that? This (second deal) was not a tax deal - they were already under.
It comes down to value for me. The Daniel Theis they gave away to get under the tax making 5M was their starting center. The Daniel Theis they just acquired making just under 9M average for the next two years is a backup center, and a one position backup (please not another season of Theis masquerading a 4 as well). If Rob Williams wasn't here and they traded for Theis on his contract to start, that would be fine.

According to spotrac, he's the 24th highest paid center in the league. That is really pricey in a 30 team league for a backup. That's about where he'll remain. I saw someone saying he'll get passed by guys on rookie deals. Rob Williams passes him next year. I think only Mitchell Robinson and maybe Mo Bamba will have any shot at signing for more than him. Serge Ibaka and Tristan Thompson will for sure not make more than him next year, and maybe Thomas Bryant won't as well. I just took a quick look at this, I could be off by one or two either way, but it's at least close.

That's a lot of resources to spend on a guy you hope is playing 15 minutes or less for you when healthy.

On a team where the tax has been an issue for the past two seasons, I think it would make much more sense to sign a minimum backup for that spot, and if something happens that you need an upgrade there due to injury/performance, then make a move next deadline.

It just doesn't make sense to me to pay Theis close to 9M, when guys like Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside, Cody Zeller, Dwayne Dedmon, Frank Kaminsky all signed for the minimum this offseason and Ed Davis, Boogie Cousins and Bismack Biyombo didn't even get a contract at all til in season.

Maybe you like Theis better than most, or all, of those guys. For the record, I do. But I don't like him 7M dollars better.

And the tax implication I was talking about on this deal was dumping Schroder into the trade for nothing. If the tax wasn't an issue this season, they could've just kept him as depth since I don't think tanking Houston would've minded us just keeping that money. Again, I don't blame them for trying to stay under the tax, but I think the tax is likely to be an issue going forward as well.

I also saw others noted Theis is valuable as matching outgoing salary. I don't think that matters much either. Already having Horford available as anywhere from 14.5M to 26.5M as an expiring contract should give the Celtics plenty of ballast to make deals.
 

Fishy1

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This really isn't very hard. We turned an expiring contract into a contract that can be moved next year for other talent if need be. You seem to be overly, even obsessively focused on the fact that he's paid 9 million when Boogie Cousins and Ed Davis (???) are fighting for a ten day contract.

First: Daniel Theis is a very good defender! He's not a very good rebounder or shooter, but he fills a need next year if we move on from Horford. He also fills a need if TL or Al gets injured, a very real possibility. He's a nice backup defender or starter at a position where defense is prized. He might start next to Rob next year.

We were paying Josh Richardson 12 million in spite of the fact that we had three wings ahead of him on the depth chart. That contract was turned into Derrick White. Was paying Richardson 12 million also a horrible overpay, or was it a shrewd decision with the future in mind?
 

mcpickl

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This really isn't very hard. We turned an expiring contract into a contract that can be moved next year for other talent if need be. You seem to be overly, even obsessively focused on the fact that he's paid 9 million when Boogie Cousins and Ed Davis (???) are fighting for a ten day contract.

First: Daniel Theis is a very good defender! He's not a very good rebounder or shooter, but he fills a need next year if we move on from Horford. He also fills a need if TL or Al gets injured, a very real possibility. He's a nice backup defender or starter at a position where defense is prized. He might start next to Rob next year.

We were paying Josh Richardson 12 million in spite of the fact that we had three wings ahead of him on the depth chart. That contract was turned into Derrick White. Was paying Richardson 12 million also a horrible overpay, or was it a shrewd decision with the future in mind?
It's apparently very hard.

I have no issues with Daniel Theis the player, with the exception of saying he might start next to Rob next year. No thanks to two centers again.

And thanks for helping make my point on Josh Richardson vs Daniel Theis. If you can backup multiple spots like Josh Richardson, that's much more valuable than being able to backup just one. I wouldn't pay a guy that can just play point guard 9M bucks to backup either.

And I'm overly, even obsessively, focused on the money because over the past two season the Celtics have been as well.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It comes down to value for me. The Daniel Theis they gave away to get under the tax making 5M was their starting center. The Daniel Theis they just acquired making just under 9M average for the next two years is a backup center, and a one position backup (please not another season of Theis masquerading a 4 as well). If Rob Williams wasn't here and they traded for Theis on his contract to start, that would be fine.

According to spotrac, he's the 24th highest paid center in the league. That is really pricey in a 30 team league for a backup. That's about where he'll remain. I saw someone saying he'll get passed by guys on rookie deals. Rob Williams passes him next year. I think only Mitchell Robinson and maybe Mo Bamba will have any shot at signing for more than him. Serge Ibaka and Tristan Thompson will for sure not make more than him next year, and maybe Thomas Bryant won't as well. I just took a quick look at this, I could be off by one or two either way, but it's at least close.

That's a lot of resources to spend on a guy you hope is playing 15 minutes or less for you when healthy.

On a team where the tax has been an issue for the past two seasons, I think it would make much more sense to sign a minimum backup for that spot, and if something happens that you need an upgrade there due to injury/performance, then make a move next deadline.

It just doesn't make sense to me to pay Theis close to 9M, when guys like Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside, Cody Zeller, Dwayne Dedmon, Frank Kaminsky all signed for the minimum this offseason and Ed Davis, Boogie Cousins and Bismack Biyombo didn't even get a contract at all til in season.

Maybe you like Theis better than most, or all, of those guys. For the record, I do. But I don't like him 7M dollars better.

And the tax implication I was talking about on this deal was dumping Schroder into the trade for nothing. If the tax wasn't an issue this season, they could've just kept him as depth since I don't think tanking Houston would've minded us just keeping that money. Again, I don't blame them for trying to stay under the tax, but I think the tax is likely to be an issue going forward as well.

I also saw others noted Theis is valuable as matching outgoing salary. I don't think that matters much either. Already having Horford available as anywhere from 14.5M to 26.5M as an expiring contract should give the Celtics plenty of ballast to make deals.

It's also an awful insurance policy against TL getting injured because if TL gets injured, the team isn't going anywhere anyway. TL is a vital cog to this team if they want a chance of winning anything. DT/Al isn't getting it done. I guess if Al gets injured, DT is an ok insurance policy but it's still a drop off. DT isn't the passer, and even in Al's off year, the shooter.

I guess I can get behind it as a move for next year if Al is traded but I still don't think it would be hard to find a back up center in the offseason at a cheaper price. If they use assets to dump Al in the offseason and don't use his salary to bring someone back, I'll think this was an especially bad deal. Why not just go with Horford again? Declining Al's option+ Theis's contract does save around 3 million, but ugh. I hope that's not the plan, either. I would be looking to trade Al with other pieces this offseason for a significant player. If that didn't happen, I'd have just rolled with him as the back up center over buying him out and going with Theis to save $3 mil.

DT does have a decent contract for matching purposes though. Not a total given he's on the team next year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This really isn't very hard. We turned an expiring contract into a contract that can be moved next year for other talent if need be. You seem to be overly, even obsessively focused on the fact that he's paid 9 million when Boogie Cousins and Ed Davis (???) are fighting for a ten day contract.

First: Daniel Theis is a very good defender! He's not a very good rebounder or shooter, but he fills a need next year if we move on from Horford. He also fills a need if TL or Al gets injured, a very real possibility. He's a nice backup defender or starter at a position where defense is prized. He might start next to Rob next year.

We were paying Josh Richardson 12 million in spite of the fact that we had three wings ahead of him on the depth chart. That contract was turned into Derrick White. Was paying Richardson 12 million also a horrible overpay, or was it a shrewd decision with the future in mind?
That can possibly be moved next year for talent if need be. Or it's possible the Celtics need to attach a 1st round pick to dump his contract because there are no deals out there. The whole "you can just flip his contract next year" is the entire point. Lately, instead of using those contracts to acquire talent, the C's have been attaching picks to get rid of the contract.

People take it for granted that Theis can be easily flipped if the C's decide he's not needed or need the money for someone else. Maybe everything will be fine and Theis is decent back up center for 2 years, or they flip him for a Josh Richardson next year. Still don't like the trade.
 

Cellar-Door

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It comes down to value for me. The Daniel Theis they gave away to get under the tax making 5M was their starting center. The Daniel Theis they just acquired making just under 9M average for the next two years is a backup center, and a one position backup (please not another season of Theis masquerading a 4 as well). If Rob Williams wasn't here and they traded for Theis on his contract to start, that would be fine.

According to spotrac, he's the 24th highest paid center in the league. That is really pricey in a 30 team league for a backup. That's about where he'll remain. I saw someone saying he'll get passed by guys on rookie deals. Rob Williams passes him next year. I think only Mitchell Robinson and maybe Mo Bamba will have any shot at signing for more than him. Serge Ibaka and Tristan Thompson will for sure not make more than him next year, and maybe Thomas Bryant won't as well. I just took a quick look at this, I could be off by one or two either way, but it's at least close.

That's a lot of resources to spend on a guy you hope is playing 15 minutes or less for you when healthy.

On a team where the tax has been an issue for the past two seasons, I think it would make much more sense to sign a minimum backup for that spot, and if something happens that you need an upgrade there due to injury/performance, then make a move next deadline.

It just doesn't make sense to me to pay Theis close to 9M, when guys like Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside, Cody Zeller, Dwayne Dedmon, Frank Kaminsky all signed for the minimum this offseason and Ed Davis, Boogie Cousins and Bismack Biyombo didn't even get a contract at all til in season.

Maybe you like Theis better than most, or all, of those guys. For the record, I do. But I don't like him 7M dollars better.

And the tax implication I was talking about on this deal was dumping Schroder into the trade for nothing. If the tax wasn't an issue this season, they could've just kept him as depth since I don't think tanking Houston would've minded us just keeping that money. Again, I don't blame them for trying to stay under the tax, but I think the tax is likely to be an issue going forward as well.

I also saw others noted Theis is valuable as matching outgoing salary. I don't think that matters much either. Already having Horford available as anywhere from 14.5M to 26.5M as an expiring contract should give the Celtics plenty of ballast to make deals.
So I disagree on a few things here:
1. Part of trading Theis was that they were giving his starting spot to TL.
2. The problem with the "do I like him $7M better" is... do you like him 7M better than the worst version of the worst of those guys? Because you can't really tell with the tier below Theis what you'll get and how they'll fit, a number of those guys just don't fit what we do on either end at all.
3. I think they anticipate him playing more next year because they don't plan to have Al here, so Theis will be more a rotational starter/bench fringe guy playing 20+MPG, which is basically full time when it comes to centers.
4. Making a move after an injury is always bad, because the market is limited, you have to overpay, and you struggle to get good fits and bring guys into the system. Also... it isn't just major injuries, Timelord had his healthiest year of his career last year... he played less than 75% of the games. This year he's been even healthier.... he's still only played 78% of the games so far. Even with Horford on the roster there are going to be a lot of big minutes available for a big on this team, without Horford you're talking basically starter minutes likely between starting around 1 in 4 games, and playing minutes off the bench for a team that likes to play big.

I expect he'll be around 27th-30th in salary next year, the guys locked in ahead, plus Nurkic, Ayton, Favors (Player option), Robinson, maybe Bamba. I think that's in line with his skills, he's better than some guys ahead of him, some guys below (mostly rookie deals) are better than him.

Edit- also I'd say your list of minimum guys is all over the place, a couple of the ring chasers on that list are pretty good (I think Theis is better, particularly for us) but come with the question of both fit, and if they'd pick us over teams like the Lakers, Heat, Bucks, etc. which as we saw when we were trying to get a big with $9M is harder than you'd think. Then some of them are TERRIBLE, like, yes Theis is $7M better than Boogie, because Theis is a good NBA defense first center and Boogie isn't an NBA player anymore.
 

Euclis20

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It's also an awful insurance policy against TL getting injured because if TL gets injured, the team isn't going anywhere anyway. TL is a vital cog to this team if they want a chance of winning anything. DT/Al isn't getting it done. I guess if Al gets injured, DT is an ok insurance policy but it's still a drop off. DT isn't the passer, and even in Al's off year, the shooter.
If TL (or really any of the top 6) is out at playoff time the team isn't going anywhere, but if he's out for a few games or a few weeks, having Theis as a backup instead of Freedom is VERY useful. It doesn't have to be all or nothing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If TL (or really any of the top 6 are out at playoff time) the team isn't going anywhere, but if he's out for a few games or a few weeks, having Theis as a backup instead of Freedom is VERY useful. It doesn't have to be all or nothing.
I question how useful it actually is. Like, how many wins a year is DT worth over Enes Kanter in the same role? Plus you can make the same argument for DS. If MS or DW get injured, having DS instead of PP is very useful.
 

Cellar-Door

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I question how useful it actually is. Like, how many wins a year is DT worth over Enes Kanter in the same role? Plus you can make the same argument for DS. If MS or DW get injured, having DS instead of PP is very useful.
I disagree. DS was not particularly positive because he didn't fit the system and wasn't going to be happy with a bench role, sliding him in for Smart changed how we played on both ends for the worse. Theis is happy with the swing big role, he can really sub for either TL or Al, and he is an excellent fit for what we want to do.
 

Euclis20

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I question how useful it actually is. Like, how many wins a year is DT worth over Enes Kanter in the same role? Plus you can make the same argument for DS. If MS or DW get injured, having DS instead of PP is very useful.
I won't parse the number of wins, but I'll agree that it's small and also point out that the Celtics are just .5 games ahead of a play in spot and just 4.5 games out of first. The standings could be very, very tight at the end and every game will matter for positioning.

On Schroder, I agree 100% and the Celtics will miss him if Smart is out for any real length of time. Not enough that they'd regret dealing him, but he will be missed when Smart is hurt. I'd say that Pritchard is a better option on the court than Freedom, plus with TL/Horford a greater injury risk than Smart or White (although it's closer than I'd like), having a slightly better backup big is more important than having a slightly better backup point guard.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I question how useful it actually is. Like, how many wins a year is DT worth over Enes Kanter in the same role?
One of the things about DT versus all of the other backup centers on the market is that we know DT can play at least a little bit the system Ime wants to play. Conversely, we also know Enes Freedom cannot. We're pretty sure some of the other names upthread won't be able to either.

$9M seems a bit rich but it's not my money so I'm less worried about that. Obviously, if the Cs have to attach a substantial asset to part with his contract next year for luxury tax purposes, McP can have the last laugh but I honestly think POBOBS got Theis to stay here for a while.
 

Saints Rest

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Brad mentioned they acquired players who are “self aware”, essentially players who know their role and aren’t trying to do too much. I think that’s one of the biggest reasons why Theis fits better than Schroeder. He wants to be in Boston, he’s fine doing the dirty work and he’s got his multi year contract. I don’t think any of those things apply with Schroeder
Having lived thru contract-year Scary Terry, Brad might have been trying to avoid doing it to Ime,
 

Cellar-Door

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I won't parse the number of wins, but I'll agree that it's small and also point out that the Celtics are just .5 games ahead of a play in spot and just 4.5 games out of first. The standings could be very, very tight at the end and every game will matter for positioning.

On Schroder, I agree 100% and the Celtics will miss him if Smart is out for any real length of time. Not enough that they'd regret dealing him, but he will be missed when Smart is hurt. I'd say that Pritchard is a better option on the court than Freedom, plus with TL/Horford a greater injury risk than Smart or White (although it's closer than I'd like), having a slightly better backup big is more important than having a slightly better backup point guard.
Celtics are under .500 in the 13 games TL has missed, now Enes was not the primary replacement in many of those... as they just went to Al (probably not an option last year), Enes started 1 game.... we lost.
I'd say that TL can be expected to miss around 18-22 games a year based on his last 2 seasons. I think Theis with Al is probably only a 2-3 game difference in those. Theis with Al gone is probably more like 4, that's a lot of games in the scheme of things. Even more than that though, I think Theis is a big you can play in a playoff game, and feel pretty good about it. Enes was unplayable in most playoff games, and so are a lot of bench bigs.
 

reggiecleveland

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I like Theis as a bench guy. As a starter not so much. But the D doesn't fall off the map when he comes in. He is almost the worst kind of 3pt shooter. Almost good enough that he thinks he just needs to make a few to be legit.
 

slamminsammya

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I don't get how someone can get that worked up over $9 million for the next two years. You could sign me on that contract and it wouldn't be that negative for the cap and trade flexibility. Now add in the fact that Theis is actually a good NBA player filling a needed role on our team that we know he can succeed in and I wonder whether we live in the same realities given what an upset this is to senor pickl.
 

Senator Donut

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If we are assuming Horford is not brought back at his full salary, the Celtics were looking at Robert Williams and no other center depth for next season. Without a first round pick and likely capped out, the Celtics would have to use an exception or acquire a player via trade to fill that role. I think Theis at $9 million is an as good or better option than what would be available using the full or tax midlevel, plus the Celtics wouldn't incur the opportunity cost of not being able to use the midlevel to sign another contributer. They also have the added bonus of Theis contributing to the team this current year like he did last night.
 

shoelace

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If we are assuming Horford is not brought back at his full salary, the Celtics were looking at Robert Williams and no other center depth for next season. Without a first round pick and likely capped out, the Celtics would have to use an exception or acquire a player via trade to fill that role. I think Theis at $9 million is an as good or better option than what would be available using the full or tax midlevel, plus the Celtics wouldn't incur the opportunity cost of not being able to use the midlevel to sign another contributer. They also have the added bonus of Theis contributing to the team this current year like he did last night.
It seems like some posters are too hung up on some abstract idea of value (especially this whole "fungible big" conversation that ignores roster fit and defensive scheme), but this is a really good summary of all of the additional context that makes it a good trade. I think we're into hysterical territory when a pretty good player on a two year, MLEish deal is seen as a negative asset. It's wild, and I don't think it has any basis in reality.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It seems like some posters are too hung up on some abstract idea of value (especially this whole "fungible big" conversation that ignores roster fit and defensive scheme), but this is a really good summary of all of the additional context that makes it a good trade. I think we're into hysterical territory when a pretty good player on a two year, MLEish deal is seen as a negative asset. It's wild, and I don't think it has any basis in reality.
a lot of it will depend on what happens to Horford.
 

NomarsFool

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It seems like some posters are too hung up on some abstract idea of value (especially this whole "fungible big" conversation that ignores roster fit and defensive scheme), but this is a really good summary of all of the additional context that makes it a good trade. I think we're into hysterical territory when a pretty good player on a two year, MLEish deal is seen as a negative asset. It's wild, and I don't think it has any basis in reality.
Well, Houston just traded Theis for nothing - so in our reality his contract seemed to be no better than a neutral asset.

The last few seasons we have constantly subjected to luxury tax talk - all of us obsessing over whether players make the All Star game or make All-NBA because of the cap implications and whether they can afford to keep player X, Y, and Z. So, money matters.
 

slamminsammya

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Well, Houston just traded Theis for nothing - so in our reality his contract seemed to be no better than a neutral asset.

The last few seasons we have constantly subjected to luxury tax talk - all of us obsessing over whether players make the All Star game or make All-NBA because of the cap implications and whether they can afford to keep player X, Y, and Z. So, money matters.
Why is it so difficult to grasp that the value of the same contract, and same player, will vary by team according to their particular situation?

Theis is worth less to Houston as a rebuilding team than he is to Boston who needs to solidify a playoff rotation this year and next. This point has been raised multiple times.

If KG was so good why did Minnesota trade him for Al Jefferson, a bag of not so good role players, and picks that became Jonny Flynn and Wayne Ellington? He couldn't have been that good right? Is that how the logic works? And so on and so forth.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm not so sure I'd say Theis was traded for nothing anyway... HOU seems to plan to play Schroder and try to get him to agree to a deal there.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It comes down to value for me. The Daniel Theis they gave away to get under the tax making 5M was their starting center. The Daniel Theis they just acquired making just under 9M average for the next two years is a backup center, and a one position backup (please not another season of Theis masquerading a 4 as well). If Rob Williams wasn't here and they traded for Theis on his contract to start, that would be fine.
Do you mean value or role? Theis is, substantively, the same guy they traded a year ago, though he's paid more now.
According to spotrac, he's the 24th highest paid center in the league. That is really pricey in a 30 team league for a backup. That's about where he'll remain. I saw someone saying he'll get passed by guys on rookie deals. Rob Williams passes him next year. I think only Mitchell Robinson and maybe Mo Bamba will have any shot at signing for more than him. Serge Ibaka and Tristan Thompson will for sure not make more than him next year, and maybe Thomas Bryant won't as well. I just took a quick look at this, I could be off by one or two either way, but it's at least close.

That's a lot of resources to spend on a guy you hope is playing 15 minutes or less for you when healthy.

On a team where the tax has been an issue for the past two seasons, I think it would make much more sense to sign a minimum backup for that spot, and if something happens that you need an upgrade there due to injury/performance, then make a move next deadline.

It just doesn't make sense to me to pay Theis close to 9M, when guys like Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside, Cody Zeller, Dwayne Dedmon, Frank Kaminsky all signed for the minimum this offseason and Ed Davis, Boogie Cousins and Bismack Biyombo didn't even get a contract at all til in season.
To a man, all of those guys are either bad players or guys who don't fit the Celtics system. They had that in Kanter and it failed.

Ainge, when team building after the Pierce-Garnett trade, made no effort at all to find players who fit the team and it showed. Brad is taking a different approach.
And the tax implication I was talking about on this deal was dumping Schroder into the trade for nothing. If the tax wasn't an issue this season, they could've just kept him as depth since I don't think tanking Houston would've minded us just keeping that money. Again, I don't blame them for trying to stay under the tax, but I think the tax is likely to be an issue going forward as well.
Schroder was a bad fit (though good player) whose role was going to shrink, and the Celtics shed some salary in the process which allows them to shop in the buyout market while staying below the tax line. There is real value and no financial cost to bringing in Theis for the stretch run of this season - if there's a problem with this deal it is the next 2 years.
I also saw others noted Theis is valuable as matching outgoing salary. I don't think that matters much either. Already having Horford available as anywhere from 14.5M to 26.5M as an expiring contract should give the Celtics plenty of ballast to make deals.
I think that what we have seen from Brad as GM so far is that he is not afraid to make deals and he likes to keep options open. I don't think the Celtics have committed one way or another to retaining or buying out Horford or to trading Horford. (And I don't think Horford works as a $14.5M trade salary. They either keep/trade him at $26.5M or buy him out for a 14.5M cap hit). It's very easy to envision the Celtics getting shipped out in a big beal being Smart/Theis/Nesmith rather than Horford. Or, maybe, their upgrade is a different guy making $10M.
 

lovegtm

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A lot of the $9M sticker shock is people not adjusting for the escalating cap. The cap next season is going to be 20% higher than in 2018-19, and over 90% (!) higher than in the Warriors first title season of 2014-2015, which wasn't that long ago.

Ibaka and Tristan both went for more than Theis's contract at a lower cap number, and they're significantly worse players. Below that MLE money, things get rough. You end up paying Robin Lopez and JaVale McGee types $5M, if they''ll sign with you and not someone else.

Yes, centers are fungible, but "fungible" in the NBA really means "somewhere around the MLE." It's totally fine for roster building to pay your backup center somewhere around the MLE, if he's going to be getting ~20 mins/game.

Finally, the plan for Horford is likely to package him with picks for a shooting guard or shooting wing. Getting Theis lets you execute that plan while keeping the team's talent level high, with White or Smart as a 6th man, as opposed to having to send Smart out as matching salary (the only option besides Horford).
 

lexrageorge

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And, again, way too much is being read into the team's tax moves.

Last year was a bridge year once Hayward walked and Kemba's knee did not respond. No tinkering around the edge of the roster was going to change that. So Wyc had literally no reason to pay the tax on last year's roster.

This year, they were just slightly above the threshold. Once it became clear how the trade deadline was going to shake out, dumping a couple of non-assets to get under the threshold was an inarguable no-brainer decision.

We have no idea where the team will stand with regards to the tax next season. There will be a shit ton of player movement coming this offseason, and there is no reason to think Stevens will not be active. Between Horford's expiring and several trade exceptions, including the $17.1M and $9.7M TPEs, there will be multiple avenues to make deals. They could be hard capped at the apron if they receive a player in a sign-and-trade, but if the team is a true contender after all the moves, Wyc will pay the tax.
 

lovegtm

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We have no idea where the team will stand with regards to the tax next season. There will be a shit ton of player movement coming this offseason, and there is no reason to think Stevens will not be active. Between Horford's expiring and several trade exceptions, including the $17.1M and $9.7M TPEs, there will be multiple avenues to make deals. They could be hard capped at the apron if they receive a player in a sign-and-trade, but if the team is a true contender after all the moves, Wyc will pay the tax.
The team has some small but non-negligible championship equity this year, as constructed. Treating it as a non-contender non-tax paying team next season would be criminal, barring insanely bad luck of some kind.
 

HomeRunBaker

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A lot of the $9M sticker shock is people not adjusting for the escalating cap. The cap next season is going to be 20% higher than in 2018-19, and over 90% (!) higher than in the Warriors first title season of 2014-2015, which wasn't that long ago.

Ibaka and Tristan both went for more than Theis's contract at a lower cap number, and they're significantly worse players. Below that MLE money, things get rough. You end up paying Robin Lopez and JaVale McGee types $5M, if they''ll sign with you and not someone else.

Yes, centers are fungible, but "fungible" in the NBA really means "somewhere around the MLE." It's totally fine for roster building to pay your backup center somewhere around the MLE, if he's going to be getting ~20 mins/game.

Finally, the plan for Horford is likely to package him with picks for a shooting guard or shooting wing. Getting Theis lets you execute that plan while keeping the team's talent level high, with White or Smart as a 6th man, as opposed to having to send Smart out as matching salary (the only option besides Horford).
Exactly. There has always been a market and a price to pay for a “fungible” center bc simply put……they aren’t really that fungible since very few humans of that size can play competitive NBA minutes. This goes way back to the Mark Blount signing without taking into account that we entered that summer with only Raef LaFrentz still limping following knee surgery and Ernest Brown who was signed on the final day of the regular season to secure his rights. People said Blount was fungible……in actuality he was necessary. Then of course he mailed in the rest of his career bc he knew nobody on that roster was taking his minutes bc we had nobody who could…..bc 7-foot human beings who are able to compete in the NBA are not fungible. They are a rarity. If they were fungible we could simply plug in Greg Monroe at the min to provide the same production.
 

mcpickl

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Do you mean value or role? Theis is, substantively, the same guy they traded a year ago, though he's paid more now.
These are intertwined for me.

If I'm paying Theis nearly 9M to be a starter, playing 28ish minutes a game against mostly other starters, I think that's good value
If I'm paying Theis nearly 9M to be a backup center, playing 14ish minutes a game against mostly backups, I think that's bad value.

I don't think Theis should play any minutes with Rob or another center. He's just a center for me. 9 million bucks for that role is too high in my opinion.

I get everyone thinks Wyc suddenly won't care about the tax next year. Let's say all you guys are right. They're even enough over the tax that dumping Theis won't get them out. The difference to Wycs wallet between paying Theis over dumping him for a veteran minimum guy to be your backup center instead would be at least 18 million bucks for the entire season. Even if they just waited til the deadline, they'd save 13 million. His salary is 7 million more(so about 2M prorated in cash if they waited til deadline), and if they're over the tax he'd cost them 11 million more than a minimum guy. It would be even more if they are more than 10M over the tax. And if dumping Theis actually got them under the tax, would be even more costly.

So, maybe Wyc won't mind paying an extra 13 million bucks or more to have Theis around next year. I'd expect he'd prefer to stick that 13 million in his pocket. I know I would.

I wonder whether we live in the same realities given what an upset this is to senor pickl.
Miss me with this personal bullshit.

You argue your case, I'll argue mine.

Don't need this kinda crap at all.
 

benhogan

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Theis is TL injury + Al wear-n-tear insurance this season. PLUS DT will have a bigger role than fungible 5 when/if Horford gets dealt next year. Finding out this season if he can excel playing next to Rob & Grant, while staying under the cap, is worth it.

Agree that every deal/contract has to consider the $$$ aspect, Wyc's budget isn't limitless
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The Is also allows Brad to think about dealing Al next year. BRobb had an interview with POBOBS here and POBOBS said that he's looking for guys who fit along the Jays. The Is fits and as MCP points out, everyone will be a lot happier with the trade if he's playing 20-ish mpg every night. Really depends on what happens to Al next year.
 

Eddie Jurak

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These are intertwined for me.

If I'm paying Theis nearly 9M to be a starter, playing 28ish minutes a game against mostly other starters, I think that's good value
If I'm paying Theis nearly 9M to be a backup center, playing 14ish minutes a game against mostly backups, I think that's bad value.

I don't think Theis should play any minutes with Rob or another center. He's just a center for me. 9 million bucks for that role is too high in my opinion.

I get everyone thinks Wyc suddenly won't care about the tax next year. Let's say all you guys are right. They're even enough over the tax that dumping Theis won't get them out. The difference to Wycs wallet between paying Theis over dumping him for a veteran minimum guy to be your backup center instead would be at least 18 million bucks for the entire season. Even if they just waited til the deadline, they'd save 13 million. His salary is 7 million more(so about 2M prorated in cash if they waited til deadline), and if they're over the tax he'd cost them 11 million more than a minimum guy. It would be even more if they are more than 10M over the tax. And if dumping Theis actually got them under the tax, would be even more costly.

So, maybe Wyc won't mind paying an extra 13 million bucks or more to have Theis around next year. I'd expect he'd prefer to stick that 13 million in his pocket. I know I would.
So, the issue with Wyc and the tax is just more complicated than "he'll pay" or "he won't pay." In his history of owning the team, he has sometimes been willing to pay and sometimes not. Any simple analysis that says "of coursse he'll pay next year" vs."of course he won't pay next year" is probably wrong. It's also true that the tax goes up when teams are over the tax line for consecutive or multiple years ("the repeater tax"). The best guess is that Wyc will pay the tax to chase a banner but not just to marginally upgrade the roster of a noncontender, so 1) Brad and Ime and the team need to prove themselves first, and 2) because of the repeater penalities, Wyc will want to stay under for as long as he can manage before going over.

What that means for next year is a matter of reading the tea leaves, so sufficie it to say it could go either way.

This year, the Celtics looked very much like a noncontender, albeit one with some promise, and that is reflected in the tax and deadline moves. Taken together, Brad improved the quality of the team while getting far enough below the line that he can try to add a veteran or two in the buyout market.

There are several positives for the Celtics in the Theis deal:
  • Added some space under the tax line that could come into play this year (when we know Wyc isn't paying the tax)
  • Added a third C who can immeditately contribute within the system. The top 2 centers on this team have missed a total of 22 games out of 61, so planning around their absence is not without value. Theis is meaningfully better than Kanter, Kornet, Bruno, Jabari Parker, or whatever other cheap waiver wire options are floating around out there. Losing a C was a major vulnerability for this team, now it isn't.
  • Adds flexibility around the Horford situation. Next year, the Celtics can either buy Horford out for a $14.5M cap hit or pick up his $29M option to keep him or trade him. But going into next year with Rob + waiver wire crap backing him up is not viable, while going in with Rob + Theis backing him up is perfectly viable. That means that instead of having to either keep Horford or invest in a new backup for Rob, they are free to trade or buy out Horford if that is what is best for the team.
  • Adds an ~$8.5M cap number that can be used for trade salary matching purposes. The Celtics have 3 salaries at max or near max (Brown, Tatum, Horford), two high mid level salaries (Smart, White), and then Theis at his ~$8.5M. Rob will jump above Theis next year as his 4/$48 M extension kicks in. Three of those seven are likely not going anywhere (Brown, Tatum, Rob), a fourth may be bought out (Horford), and Brad is certainly not committed to moving White or Smart.
That's real value, especially in the form of a player who can contribute. The only negative is the salary/contract. But, at worst, I think a fair balancing of the pros and cons lands on "slight overpay" as opposed to "waste of money." (The latter would be if the Celtics had given Theis' deal to Kanter or Kornet.) There's simply no reason to be certain that what Brad would have done in the alternative would have been better. Maybe yes, maybe no, although for this year only adding Theis is surely better than the plausible alternatives.
 

chilidawg

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The Is also allows Brad to think about dealing Al next year. BRobb had an interview with POBOBS here and POBOBS said that he's looking for guys who fit along the Jays. The Is fits and as MCP points out, everyone will be a lot happier with the trade if he's playing 20-ish mpg every night. Really depends on what happens to Al next year.
Horford seems to me a great fit, except for his age timeline. I think it'd have to be a great return to trade him if the team has significant post season success.
 

benhogan

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Horford seems to me a great fit, except for his age timeline. I think it'd have to be a great return to trade him if the team has significant post season success.
Horford looks really good playing with the Smart JayLords. Otherwise, he's OKish. Grant can replace his production with those 4, at 1/10th of the cost

Besides the age issue, Al is way too expensive to keep for a full season next year. The $28.5MM doesn't have to be guaranteed until Jan 7, 2023. Expect him to be dealt this summer or at the very latest Jan. 7. PBS will need to attach assets (picks/young players) to Horford to get a "great return"
 

Auger34

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Does anyone have any strong opinions on who Brad should be targeting with the Horford+picks package?
This would probably be our last chance to acquire a “3rd star” but I think that package is too light to acquire anyone of that caliber. It would be nice to acquire a younger version of Horford for sure but there aren’t too many players like that out there…depending on who they draft I wonder if the Magic would be willing to trade Wendell Carter? He’s always struck me as sort of “Horford lite” and I think he would be able to replace a decent amount of what Horford brings to the table
 

lexrageorge

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Horford's greatest asset as a trade chip is the option, as he can either be a $14.5M or $28.5M salary match. As an expiring, he's also useful to a team trying to get under the cap the following offseason. So his value on the trade market should be higher than what we see of Al the player who's used in a supporting role on the Celtics. If Brad is stapling picks and players to Al, I expect him to aim quite high.
 

Senator Donut

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Horford's greatest asset as a trade chip is the option, as he can either be a $14.5M or $28.5M salary match. As an expiring, he's also useful to a team trying to get under the cap the following offseason. So his value on the trade market should be higher than what we see of Al the player who's used in a supporting role on the Celtics. If Brad is stapling picks and players to Al, I expect him to aim quite high.
Even better, Horford can be guaranteed any dollar amount between those two figures and traded at that value.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If Zion does ask out, maybe NO moves on from Ingram. Horford and picks/swaps for Ingram would work for a rebuilding team, though maybe they could get better picks.
 

benhogan

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Does anyone have any strong opinions on who Brad should be targeting with the Horford+picks package?
This would probably be our last chance to acquire a “3rd star” but I think that package is too light to acquire anyone of that caliber. It would be nice to acquire a younger version of Horford for sure but there aren’t too many players like that out there…depending on who they draft I wonder if the Magic would be willing to trade Wendell Carter? He’s always struck me as sort of “Horford lite” and I think he would be able to replace a decent amount of what Horford brings to the table
Before the White deal, ballhandler was by far the biggest need. Also adding Theis, took away any kind of desperation to replace Horford with another 5.

So while both the White & Theis deals could be viewed as slight draft/$$$ overpays in a vacuum, in a macro sense they create roster acquisition flexibility this summer/future. "Flexibility" and "building around the JAYs" are Brad's consistent themes.

Rob Williams can be the 3rd star by the 2023 playoffs, so the Brad Beal/white whale hunting isn't necessary IMO.

"Horford + picks" return? PBS should be targeting a youngish, well-rounded player that enhances the JayLords. We've thrown around names, but there are dozens of different variables in play to even guess who could be had. Probably best to start with rebuilders like Sacramento (Barnes?), Houston (Woods?), Detroit (Grant?) if we want to throw darts