The Top 4

Humphrey · Nov 28, 2022

So, which of these 4 games has the best odds of someone pulling an upset?

Ga/LSU
TCU/KState
Michigan/Purdue
USC/Utah

JCizzle · Nov 28, 2022

Curious why you have OSU in right now over USC? USC's lone loss was on the road to ranked Utah by a point. OSU got blown out at home. Both teams handled ND about equally well, and I don't see much other difference between their schedules to make up for USC having the better loss.

B H Kim · Nov 28, 2022

I agree with the argument that it should be Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC, no matter what happens next Saturday. To bump any of those four (in favor of Ohio State) because they lose this week would be penalizing them for qualifying for their conference championship games (and rewarding Ohio State for their failure to do so).

soxin6 · Nov 28, 2022

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC

OSU lost at home and looked pretty bad in the process. Yes, Michigan was undefeated and ranked third, but losing at home in CFB is way worse than losing on the road. There is no way OSU should be in the top 4 right now, but I expect that they will be when the rankings come out tomorrow.

Awesome Fossum · Nov 28, 2022

UGA
UM
TCU
USC

Bama
Ohio St

The most interesting argument imo is 5/6 -- who is first up if USC or TCU lose. I think that because Bama's losses were so close puts them in the conversation, and that because Ohio St got run off the field by another playoff team pushes them over.

Humphrey said:
So, which of these 4 games has the best odds of someone pulling an upset?

Ga/LSU
TCU/KState
Michigan/Purdue
USC/Utah

TCU and USC are both -2 right now. USC has obviously already lost to Utah, but KSU is pretty damn good.

B H Kim said:
I agree with the argument that it should be Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC, no matter what happens next Saturday. To bump any of those four (in favor of Ohio State) because they lose this week would be penalizing them for qualifying for their conference championship games.

They'd be penalized for losing their conference championship game. I think it's fair to point out what a double-edged sword these games are, but I don't think we can pretend that they don't happen.

In a better world, Alabama and Ohio State would be playing each other this weekend.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Nov 28, 2022

I really don't understand the argument for Bama over OSU as the fifth best team. Bama has two losses, both to teams not nearly as good as Michigan, and their two best wins aren't as good as OSU's two best wins. OSU-Michigan was a one score game midway through the fourth quarter with OSU having more total yards at that point. It's not like that game was a blowout from the beginning or a case of one team truly dominating the other.

Was (Not Wasdin) · Nov 28, 2022

Why would Alabama be the "next team up" and not Tennessee? I mean, I know why, but I dont like it. Tennessee beat them straight up, and lost at Georgia and at south carolina (who looks like a pretty good team right now). Bama lost to Tennessee and LSU (who Tennessee beat up on). Their losses are comparable. It doesn't seem right to me that a two loss team that doesn't even play for its conference championship gets in ahead of a team it lost to with the same record and similar losses.

Philip Jeff Frye · Nov 28, 2022

B H Kim said:
I agree with the argument that it should be Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC, no matter what happens next Saturday. To bump any of those four (in favor of Ohio State) because they lose this week would be penalizing them for qualifying for their conference championship games (and rewarding Ohio State for their failure to do so).

But if USC losses twice to the same team? That means that the first game, while close, was not a fluke, right?

Awesome Fossum · Nov 28, 2022

Bama lost two games by four points, one in OT. Tennessee lost two games by 39 points, was completely uncompetitive against a team already in the playoff field, and their QB is now out for the season.

I don't think it's unreasonable to put Ohio State ahead. For me, the big thing is that Ohio State wilted against a team already in the playoff field at home.

Awesome Fossum · Nov 28, 2022

Philip Jeff Frye said:
But if USC loses twice to the same team? That means that the first game, while close, was not a fluke, right?

With two head to head wins, I would almost think a 10-3 Utah has a better case than an 11-2 USC.

B H Kim · Nov 28, 2022

Awesome Fossum said:
With two head to head wins, I would almost think a 10-3 Utah has a better case than an 11-2 USC.

After watching Utah lose to Florida and seeing how the rest of Florida's season played out, I have a hard time believing that Utah is one of the four best teams in the country.

Awesome Fossum · Nov 28, 2022

I didn't say they ought to be Top 4 with a win; I gave that spot to Alabama. You were the one who wanted to give it to an 11-2 USC that had lost twice to the Pac 12 champ.

chrisfont9 · Nov 28, 2022

B H Kim said:
After watching Utah lose to Florida and seeing how the rest of Florida's season played out, I have a hard time believing that Utah is one of the four best teams in the country.

Yeah, that's a bridge too far. I am a Utah fan now that my son goes there, so I am biased but have watched them all season. They were on the verge of winning the Florida and Oregon games, and the Oregon game especially was a complete fluke (the field was icy). But losses are losses as far as the rankings go. A healthy Rising is maybe a top 10 QB and their defense is probably better than it was when they first faced USC, but against the top teams I doubt they could hold up. They thrive as a ground-and-pound team which would be tough against NFL-level D lines you see in the SEC.

I don't hate their chances of ruining USC's season though.

jon abbey · Nov 28, 2022

It feels like Georgia is going to win two playoff games by a combined 50 points.

JCizzle · Nov 28, 2022

This is why I'm happy they're expanding the playoff. I get that three loss LSU (or fill in the blank equally flawed team) wouldn't make for the sexiest national champion if they went on a run as the ~#11 seed to the title, but I think it's equally dumb that a team like OSU or Alabama can take advantage of another team faring better in their conference and losing in a title game.

phineas gage · Nov 28, 2022

I'm all for expansion, but how far? I would assume it goes to eight next time, but what next? Logistically college football playoffs would be probably be limited to at most a four-week window, so maybe sixteen teams tops? Can the system eventually incorporate most of the traditional bowls, if the money incentive is large enough?

Humphrey · Nov 28, 2022

phineas gage said:
I'm all for expansion, but how far? I would assume it goes to eight next time, but what next? Logistically college football playoffs would be probably be limited to at most a four-week window, so maybe sixteen teams tops? Can the system eventually incorporate most of the traditional bowls, if the money incentive is large enough?

You figure these places are going to always have playoff games for various reasons:
Dallas (Cotton)
Atlanta (Peach)
New Orleans (Sugar)
Miami (Orange)
Rose Bowl (even though the stadium sucks) or SOFI or maybe both
Phoenix (Fiesta)

A 12 team playoff (which is where things seem headed for) takes 11 games. Easy enough to incorporate those 6 or 7 venues into the schedule every year and rotate out the rest either in the remaining nice weather places or domes.

Have to start as close or on New Year's Day as possible. Let the other crap bowl games fill in the tv time slots in the interim.

luckiestman · Nov 28, 2022

B H Kim said:
After watching Utah lose to Florida and seeing how the rest of Florida's season played out, I have a hard time believing that Utah is one of the four best teams in the country.

Utah kids melting in the Swamp in the summer wasn’t that surprising. You ever been there during that time of year? Walking from your house to your car sucks in that heat.

I don’t have them top 4 but if it was their only loss I would forgive it.

Sad Sam Jones · Nov 28, 2022

The Big1G Conference Championship was played on Saturday in Columbus. There's no unfair advantage for them by not playing in the glorified scrimmage this weekend in Indianapolis. It would be an unfair disadvantage penalizing them again for playing in the really good half of the conference instead of the craptastic half of it.

thehitcat · Nov 29, 2022

There is no Tuesday night release of rankings. The next release will be Sunday post the championship games. I see it like this.

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC

I think if TCU loses they drop to 4 but are still safe. If USC loses I could see wandering eyes looking to Ohio State or Alabama but I think the top three are in no matter what happens in the conference champ games.

luckiestman · Nov 29, 2022

thehitcat said:
There is no Tuesday night release of rankings. The next release will be Sunday post the championship games. I see it like this.

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU
4. USC

I think if TCU loses they drop to 4 but are still safe. If USC loses I could see wandering eyes looking to Ohio State or Alabama but I think the top three are in no matter what happens in the conference champ games.

I cannot see TCU losing and still being in front of OSU

Average Reds · Nov 29, 2022

luckiestman said:
I cannot see TCU losing and still being in front of OSU

Have to believe this is right. If either TCU or USC loses, OSU is in.

To the point made above, it is somewhat counter-intuitive that a team not making their conference championship game gets "credit" for not losing that game, but the football playoffs have always been unfair that way.

Average Reds · Nov 29, 2022

JFK35 said:
Everyone is exaggerating the margin of the game on Saturday. Ohio State DOMINATED the first half in the same way Michigan dominated the 4th Quarter. They were down 4 and had more yards with 11 mins left to go in the game. Michigan won and was the better team and has the Buckeyes number right now. And I would be thrilled if Day got fired.

The two big plays Michigan had in the first half were a direct result of the OSU defense selling out against the run. To ignore that and claim domination seems a bit myopic.

The second half was what domination looks like.

With all that said.. they are one of the top 4 teams in the country. There is no doubt about that.

The bolded is simply false. If TCU and USC win out, they are in. Deservedly so.

loshjott · Nov 29, 2022

JCizzle said:
This is why I'm happy they're expanding the playoff. I get that three loss LSU (or fill in the blank equally flawed team) wouldn't make for the sexiest national champion if they went on a run as the ~#11 seed to the title, but I think it's equally dumb that a team like OSU or Alabama can take advantage of another team faring better in their conference and losing in a title game.

I think a #11 seed making a run to the title would be very sexy, even a power five team. Think 1985 Villanova or 1983 NC State in basketball. Or one of the recent non-power five runs to the final four.

trotsplits · Nov 29, 2022

JFK35 said:
I never said they wouldn’t be in with wins. I just said Ohio State is better than both of them and is one of the top 4 teams in the country. They won’t be in the playoffs but they are one of the top 4 in the country

Is Ohio St better than TCU? They should settle it on the field: it would be fun watching two Big XII teams go at it.

DeadlySplitter · Nov 29, 2022

Official top 6: UGA, UM, TCU, USC, OSU, ALA

Zososoxfan · Nov 30, 2022

JFK35 said:
Everyone is exaggerating the margin of the game on Saturday. Ohio State DOMINATED the first half in the same way Michigan dominated the 4th Quarter. They were down 4 and had more yards with 11 mins left to go in the game. Michigan won and was the better team and has the Buckeyes number right now. And I would be thrilled if Day got fired.

[snip]

Average Reds said:
The two big plays Michigan had in the first half were a direct result of the OSU defense selling out against the run. To ignore that and claim domination seems a bit myopic.

The second half was what domination looks like.

[snip]

Yeah, you're overstating OSU's play in The Game @JFK35 . Knowles set OSU up to stuff the run and dare JJ to throw for the win. Michigan played a bend-don't-break approach, and while OSU's second drive was good and got down to the RZ, OSU settled for a FG. I don't have to tell you that OSU struggled in the RZ all season. Michigan then outscored OSU 14-10 in Q2. And the second half was OSU getting blasted on their home field. When Michigan was able to put together a 15-play TD drive starting in the middle of Q3 and ended in Q4, the score might've been close, but that setup the big Q4. Was I nervous during the second half--even in the 4th? Of course! It's The Game! But that doesn't take away the fact that OSU basically couldn't put together a scoring drive following the Marvin Harrison Jr. TD. On the 4 drives beginning late in Q2 (I'm not counting end of half), they punted 4 times. Then they scored a FG. Then they had 2 INTs.

trotsplits said:
Is Ohio St better than TCU? They should settle it on the field: it would be fun watching two Big XII teams go at it.

Why Day decided that going to the Big 12 to find a DC to stop Michigan [fergodssake] is beyond me. But the O also needs to take a long look in the mirror. If you're throwing on the vast majority of your 3rd and 4th downs, that's a problem.

trotsplits · Dec 1, 2022

JFK35 said:
Ohio State is miles better then TCU. That’ll be obvious when TCU plays Michigan and the game is over before the 1st Quarter is over.

I agree that Michigan will beat TCU, but I wouldn't assume OSU would beat TCU based on what I've seen from the Buckeyes this year. They've been outgained for four of the past five games. And only two of those games were against Michigan and Penn St.

Zososoxfan · Dec 1, 2022

JFK35 said:
Everyone agrees USC has to win to be in

But some say TCU is in no matter what?… thoughts ?

TBH, I never gave the idea that teams shouldn't be penalized for losing a CCG but I think it makes some sense. If you look at it this way though, shouldn't the only teams outside the current top 4 eligible to make the playoffs be the other CCG participants (i.e., Utah, KSU, Clemson, UNC, LSU, and Purdue (lol))? From there, we can easily eliminate Purdue, UNC, and LSU. So, let's say Utah, KSU, and Clemson win, what happens and what should happen? Clemson is at a disadvantage because they play #23 UNC--i.e., not a current playoff team. But KSU and Utah each have 3 losses. Outside of Utah's loss to FL (which admittedly was @UF in sweltering heat), all 5 losses were to good, ranked teams. Nevertheless, I don't think any of those teams deserve a playoff spot.

So to boil it down, the most interesting scenarios to consider are UGA, Michigan, TCU, USC losses, and a Clemson win.

Current rankings, plus record with premises above:

1. UGA (12-1), loss to #14 LSU in CCG
2. Michigan (12-1), loss to unranked Purdue in CCG
3. TCU (12-1), loss to #10 KSU in CCG
4. USC (11-2), losses to #11 Utah in CCG, and close loss @ #11Utah
5. OSU (11-1), loss to #2 Michigan
6. Bama (10-2), close losses to #7 @Tenn, @ #14 LSU
7. Tenn (10-2), big losses to @ #1 UGA, @ #19 SCAR
8. PSU (10-2), losses @ #2 Michigan, #5 OSU
9. Clemson (10-2), losses @ #21 ND, #19 SCAR
10. KSU
11. Utah

Personally, I think Bama, Tenn, and Clemson's losses eliminate them from the discussion though. So it comes down to OSU vs. the current top 4 for me. Even though it's unlikely and I would find it unfair, if Michigan were to lose to an unranked Purdue, I think you could make an argument for putting OSU ahead of Michigan. Frankly, if LSU beats UGA I would have to give some real thought to putting OSU ahead of UGA based on resume. OTOH, I don't think OSU should jump TCU even if TCU loses to a top 10 KSU team. USC is probably the most interesting comparison, because they're the only team in the top 4 with a loss going into the CCG. But again, I don't think it's fair to penalize TCU for making it to their CCG and losing.

TL;DR - I would argue that TCU should be in regardless of outcome. However, I'm toying with the idea that only teams playing in CCGs should be eligible for playoffs. This year however, Clemson's resume isn't good enough and their CCG isn't competitive enough to get them in over the current top 4. If one of the top 4 gets blown out, and Clemson puts the hurt on UNC, I might feel differently though.

Awesome Fossum · Dec 1, 2022

That still leaves the Notre Dame problem. And if Notre Dame can be eligible without going to a conference championship game, why can't Ohio State?

nolasoxfan · Dec 2, 2022

Zososoxfan said:
TBH, I never gave the idea that teams shouldn't be penalized for losing a CCG but I think it makes some sense. If you look at it this way though, shouldn't the only teams outside the current top 4 eligible to make the playoffs be the other CCG participants (i.e., Utah, KSU, Clemson, UNC, LSU, and Purdue (lol))? From there, we can easily eliminate Purdue, UNC, and LSU. So, let's say Utah, KSU, and Clemson win, what happens and what should happen? Clemson is at a disadvantage because they play #23 UNC--i.e., not a current playoff team. But KSU and Utah each have 3 losses. Outside of Utah's loss to FL (which admittedly was @UF in sweltering heat), all 5 losses were to good, ranked teams. Nevertheless, I don't think any of those teams deserve a playoff spot.

So to boil it down, the most interesting scenarios to consider are UGA, Michigan, TCU, USC losses, and a Clemson win.

Current rankings, plus record with premises above:

1. UGA (12-1), loss to #14 LSU in CCG
2. Michigan (12-1), loss to unranked Purdue in CCG
3. TCU (12-1), loss to #10 KSU in CCG
4. USC (11-2), losses to #11 Utah in CCG, and close loss @ #11Utah
5. OSU (11-1), loss to #2 Michigan
6. Bama (10-2), close losses to #7 @Tenn, @ #14 LSU
7. Tenn (10-2), big losses to @ #1 UGA, @ #19 SCAR
8. PSU (10-2), losses @ #2 Michigan, #5 OSU
9. Clemson (10-2), losses @ #21 ND, #19 SCAR
10. KSU
11. Utah

Personally, I think Bama, Tenn, and Clemson's losses eliminate them from the discussion though. So it comes down to OSU vs. the current top 4 for me. Even though it's unlikely and I would find it unfair, if Michigan were to lose to an unranked Purdue, I think you could make an argument for putting OSU ahead of Michigan. Frankly, if LSU beats UGA I would have to give some real thought to putting OSU ahead of UGA based on resume. OTOH, I don't think OSU should jump TCU even if TCU loses to a top 10 KSU team. USC is probably the most interesting comparison, because they're the only team in the top 4 with a loss going into the CCG. But again, I don't think it's fair to penalize TCU for making it to their CCG and losing.

TL;DR - I would argue that TCU should be in regardless of outcome. However, I'm toying with the idea that only teams playing in CCGs should be eligible for playoffs. This year however, Clemson's resume isn't good enough and their CCG isn't competitive enough to get them in over the current top 4. If one of the top 4 gets blown out, and Clemson puts the hurt on UNC, I might feel differently though.

Just here to point out that KSU lost to #16 Tulane University. Carry on…

Edit: Also, U South Carolina put the hurt on both Clemson and Tennessee’s playoff hopes. Season highlights for the Gamecocks. If Clemson doesn’t lose to the Gamecocks—close game BTW—I think they’d be #6 right now, behind tOSU and ahead of ‘bama.

tims4wins · Dec 3, 2022

There is a chance we get a Michigan OSU title game 9 months after a Duke UNC final four game. End of the world is coming.

What happens if TCU loses??

Average Reds · Dec 3, 2022

JFK35 said:
Everyone agrees USC has to win to be in

But some say TCU is in no matter what?… thoughts ?

My guess is that is probably right, simply because it’s harder to jump a two-loss team who didn’t make the conference championship in front of a previously undefeated team that lost in the championship.

That said, I’m not sure reason is the guiding principle, so who knows?

Average Reds · Dec 3, 2022

tims4wins said:
There is a chance we get a Michigan OSU title game 9 months after a Duke UNC final four game. End of the world is coming.

What happens if TCU loses??

If TCU loses, my guess is that we have the rematch in the semi-final game.

tims4wins · Dec 3, 2022

Average Reds said:
If TCU loses, my guess is that we have the rematch in the semi-final game.

With Bama-Georgia as the other semi-final? That would be pretty nuts.

Average Reds · Dec 3, 2022

tims4wins said:
With Bama-Georgia as the other semi-final? That would be pretty nuts.

If TCU loses I think they drop to number 4.
I don’t see Alabama getting in.

But WTF do I know?

Average Reds · Dec 3, 2022

JFK35 said:
I see it as HIGHLY unlikely (0.002%) we have a rematch in the semifinals. The committee doesn’t like to do that and I think they’ll be too tempted by a possible rematch in the title game

You are probably right. Which means we are likely set for the playoffs.

Zososoxfan · Dec 3, 2022

So uhhh, what now??

Is usc out?? Does osu fail upwards??

jsinger121 · Dec 3, 2022

USC is officially done.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Dec 3, 2022

Unless TCU gets blown out, I think that the 4 teams are set(Georgia, Michigan, TCU, OSU) with only the seeding TBD

luckiestman · Dec 3, 2022

JFK35 said:
TCU trails 14-7 with 10:16 left in 2Q but it means nothing. The playoffs are set

Georgia vs Ohio State
Michigan vs TCU

Is this to make Michigan and TCU fans happy? Give me

Dawgs/Buckeyes
Wolverines/Tide

Average Reds · Dec 3, 2022

luckiestman said:
Is this to make Michigan and TCU fans happy? Give me

Dawgs/Buckeyes
Wolverines/Tide

I wouldn’t think that a two loss Alabama team would be placed ahead of a one-loss TCU team, but what do I know?

JokersWildJIMED · Dec 3, 2022

Average Reds said:
I wouldn’t think that a two loss Alabama team would be placed ahead of a one-loss TCU team, but what do I know?

Hard to say. The committee is supposed to put the best teams in…if TCU loses big? Who knows. I think most unbiased would agree that the SEC is stronger up and down than the Big 12 and maybe two tough road losses (plus getting Bryce Young in the playoffs) makes Alabama’s case.

Let’s see how TCU responds.

The Top 4

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