The Warriors' Roster with Durant

[JakeRae]

I think that many of you are giving GS way too much credit by saying that a championship next season is practically guaranteed. GS will have almost no depth left, little inside presence, and they added another scorer where scoring was not their challenge. They should have won the championship this year, but they folded under the physical pressure from the Cavs. Durant might change that equation, but I doubt it and if they don't win, Durant will be labeled as a failure.

They still run 6 deep, assuming they keep Ezeli instead of Livingston, with both a big and a small ball lineup that are better than anyone else's. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of their deep depth guys from last year stick around too. But, in any event, in terms of quality NBA players, they are going to have sacrificed Barnes, Livingston, and Bogut to get Durant. That's not a crippling loss of depth. This is not the Heat, where they had 3 players and scrubs. The Warriors have 4 stars, 1 very good rotation player, 1 solid rotation player, and whatever else they can cobble together.

 

[jp9183]

They still run 6 deep, assuming they keep Ezeli instead of Livingston, with both a big and a small ball lineup that are better than anyone else's. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of their deep depth guys from last year stick around too. But, in any event, in terms of quality NBA players, they are going to have sacrificed Barnes, Livingston, and Bogut to get Durant. That's not a crippling loss of depth. This is not the Heat, where they had 3 players and scrubs. The Warriors have 4 stars, 1 very good rotation player, 1 solid rotation player, and whatever else they can cobble together.

Ezeli is gone they have to renounce him to sign Durant.

 

[DourDoerr]

Jerry West continues to be amazing. How many good players over the years were available, he wanted, and didn't get? He was helped for years by being in LA, but there are other great markets too.

The Dubs almost lost the finals two years ago to a crippled Cavs squad and did lose this year when pushed around, exposing a weakness. IMO Barnes' misfires cost them at least a game (of course lots of things contribute to a loss, but Barnes had some wide open misses that could have salted away one of the losses), and now they've upgraded to the nth degree.

I agree with some posters that they'll be even weaker in the post and it'll be interesting to see how that's addressed - not sure on how ready draft picks are. Warriors will continue to be fun to watch - at least the starting unit, as the second unit presumably becomes a little less so.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Doesn't this entire experiment depend on Klay Thompson's ability to adjust to being the third wheel?

Well, that and injuries.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

They still run 6 deep, assuming they keep Ezeli instead of Livingston, with both a big and a small ball lineup that are better than anyone else's. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of their deep depth guys from last year stick around too. But, in any event, in terms of quality NBA players, they are going to have sacrificed Barnes, Livingston, and Bogut to get Durant. That's not a crippling loss of depth. This is not the Heat, where they had 3 players and scrubs. The Warriors have 4 stars, 1 very good rotation player, 1 solid rotation player, and whatever else they can cobble together.

This should be split out into a new (or is there existing) GSW 2016-2017 thread. Roster construction / depth is going to be crucial, it was such a strength this season.
Who can they keep? Can Looney contribute?

 

[mcpickl]

I think that many of you are giving GS way too much credit by saying that a championship next season is practically guaranteed. GS will have almost no depth left, little inside presence, and they added another scorer where scoring was not their challenge. They should have won the championship this year, but they folded under the physical pressure from the Cavs. Durant might change that equation, but I doubt it and if they don't win, Durant will be labeled as a failure.

They won't need depth. The same thing was said about the Celtics when they made the KG./Allen trades. They need 8, maybe 9 guys, to play meaningful minutes in playoff games.

Assuming Bogut and Barnes leave, they'll have.

Curry
Durant
Klay
Draymond
Iguodala
Livingston

Just need three ring chaser veterans to fill in the other, maybe 20-30 minutes a game? Shouldn't be an issue to get a few vets to take the minimum, plus one guy with the room exception, to win a championship.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

As a basketball fan, that's just going to be an incredibly fun team to watch. The spacing and ball movement will be absurd and they'll still be one of the top defenses.

 

[patinorange]

Doesn't this entire experiment depend on Klay Thompson's ability to adjust to being the third wheel?

Well, that and injuries.

This is an interesting thought. Thompson won't be seeing much of the ball.

Yes. The season is over. Just like it was when the Warriors were up 3-1.

 

[JakeRae]

Ezeli is gone they have to renounce him to sign Durant.

They can trade Livingston instead. Plenty of teams should be happy to add Livingston.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

They can trade Livingston instead. Plenty of teams should be happy to add Livingston.

I'd keep Shawn over Festus. Such a key piece. Roll the dice with a journeyman big + the last two first rounders.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Yeah we should have a separate Warriors thread but I agree that Golden State shouldn't trade Livingston to keep Ezeli. He is a decent big but his flaws (hands aren't good and tends to get in foul trouble) make him expendable. There are veteran ring chasers out there that Golden State can acquire who can capable give 10-15 minutes a night because their super death line-up is going to do the bulk of the heavy lifting.

I will also add this - Memphis, if healthy, will be a tough match-up for Golden State as will the ascendent Minnesota Timberwolves. People are going to be surprised when the Warriors don't win more than 67 or 68 games this season but I predict that this will be the outcome. I don't think they will sweep through the playoffs either.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Great opportunity for Damian Jones and Patrick McCaw. They will almost surely have to play some meaningful bench minutes for the Dubs this year.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Assuming Bogut and Barnes leave, they'll have.

Curry
Durant
Klay
Draymond
Iguodala
Livingston

Just need three ring chaser veterans to fill in the other, maybe 20-30 minutes a game? Shouldn't be an issue to get a few vets to take the minimum, plus one guy with the room exception, to win a championship.

I thought that they had to get rid of Livingston to make this work. Livingston and Barbosa were pretty important cogs.

The other thing is that they are going to need to integrate at least three or four new players into their system. Hopefully that won't be as easy as it sounds.

This is an interesting thought. Thompson won't be seeing much of the ball.

Yes. The season is over. Just like it was when the Warriors were up 3-1.

One thing - for most mere mortals (and that excepts out Curry) it's a lot easier to shoot when you're putting up 20 shots a game than if you get 5. There is definitely a skill to hitting shots after not having touched the ball for a while.

There is a chance this doesn't work out even if everyone stays healthy. The team has four guys who like to have the ball in their hands - let's not forget Green - and it will be interesting to see how this affects the chemistry.

One can always hope.

 

[BaseballJones]

Doesn't this entire experiment depend on Klay Thompson's ability to adjust to being the third wheel?

This is going to be one of the more interesting sub-plots in all this. Thompson is - or at least could be - a major, major superstar on his own. But now he's going to be the third wheel behind two alpha players, two MVPs. I know GS shares the ball like no other team I've ever seen since the 80's Lakers and Celtics (maybe San Antonio currently is in the discussion), but there still are only so many shots to go around. Are Curry and Durant going to be happy scoring just 20 a game in order to make sure that Klay gets his 20? Or will Klay be fine averaging 14-15 while Curry and Durant get their 27-30 apiece? And Draymond is emerging as a star too, but he seems to be ok with having fewer shots, but we will see how long that lasts.

It's kind of like the Patriots if they had 5 all-pro receiving options. Yeah, it's great to have that much talent, but there's only so many passes Brady can throw in a game.

 

[JakeRae]

Yeah we should have a separate Warriors thread but I agree that Golden State shouldn't trade Livingston to keep Ezeli. He is a decent big but his flaws (hands aren't good and tends to get in foul trouble) make him expendable. There are veteran ring chasers out there that Golden State can acquire who can capable give 10-15 minutes a night because their super death line-up is going to do the bulk of the heavy lifting.

I will also add this - Memphis, if healthy, will be a tough match-up for Golden State as will the ascendent Minnesota Timberwolves. People are going to be surprised when the Warriors don't win more than 67 or 68 games this season but I predict that this will be the outcome. I don't think they will sweep through the playoffs either.

I think they need a quality center to balance out their roster much more than they need a PG. Livingston is a very good rotation player, but his skills are less needed with Durant on the team since proper rotations will keep someone who can dominate the ball on the court at all times. With Bogut gone, they need someone to start games at the 5 and who can muscle up against teams that play them big to keep Green and Durant from wearing down playing up a position all the time. Ezeli is their only access to that player.

 

[mcpickl]

I thought that they had to get rid of Livingston to make this work. Livingston and Barbosa were pretty important cogs.

The other thing is that they are going to need to integrate at least three or four new players into their system. Hopefully that won't be as easy as it sounds.

One can always hope.

They can keep Livingston as long as someone takes Bogut. Wouldn't rule out Barbosa taking the minimum to stay either. Or the room exception.

 

[mcpickl]

I think they need a quality center to balance out their roster much more than they need a PG. Livingston is a very good rotation player, but his skills are less needed with Durant on the team since proper rotations will keep someone who can dominate the ball on the court at all times. With Bogut gone, they need someone to start games at the 5 and who can muscle up against teams that play them big to keep Green and Durant from wearing down playing up a position all the time. Ezeli is their only access to that player.

Livingston is already under contract for 5.8M. Ezeli is unsigned. Unless Ezeli is willing to sign with GS for around the same 5.8M, he isn't an option. With the way dudes are getting paid, can't see that happening.

 

[JakeRae]

Livingston is already under contract for 5.8M. Ezeli is unsigned. Unless Ezeli is willing to sign with GS for around the same 5.8M, he isn't an option. With the way dudes are getting paid, can't see that happening.

This is untrue. They could trade Livingston, and sign Ezeli for whatever it took because his cap hold is small enough to free up enough space to sign Durant first. However, the reporting indicates they are renouncing Ezeli, so they clearly disagree with me and this is a moot discussion outside of whether it is the right move.

 

[mcpickl]

This is untrue. They could trade Livingston, and sign Ezeli for whatever it took because his cap hold is small enough to free up enough space to sign Durant first. However, the reporting indicates they are renouncing Ezeli, so they clearly disagree with me and this is a moot discussion outside of whether it is the right move.

You're right, they could've done that. But having Ezeli on the books longterm makes it trickier to get Durant his max deal next summer. I assume part of KD signing there was GS assuring him they can max him next summer. I'd be really surprised if they sign anyone for decent money for more than one year.

 

[Sprowl]

Split off from the 'Durant to Dubs' thread...

***

Injuries and depth are the Achilles heel of top-heavy rosters. Brute force is the kryptonite of skill-led rosters.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Here is GSW's summer league roster: http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2016/7/1/12084992/warriors-announce-vegas-summer-league-roster-nba-golden-state

I see that Landry Fields is playing for the team. I suppose he could be a leading candidate to fill out the roster and get a ring.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Warriors source: Team has reached agreement in principle on parameters of a deal to send Andrew Bogut to the Mavericks.

That's a tweet from respected Bay Area writer Monte Poole

 

[jacklamabe65]

I have a hunch that this is not going to work out well for them. It's like marrying the Perfect 10 who turns out to be not-so-great.

 

[nighthob]

This is going to be one of the more interesting sub-plots in all this. Thompson is - or at least could be - a major, major superstar on his own. But now he's going to be the third wheel behind two alpha players, two MVPs. I know GS shares the ball like no other team I've ever seen since the 80's Lakers and Celtics (maybe San Antonio currently is in the discussion), but there still are only so many shots to go around. Are Curry and Durant going to be happy scoring just 20 a game in order to make sure that Klay gets his 20? Or will Klay be fine averaging 14-15 while Curry and Durant get their 27-30 apiece? And Draymond is emerging as a star too, but he seems to be ok with having fewer shots, but we will see how long that lasts.

If Curry & Durant are averaging 27+ apiece, Klay is averaging 8-10 points a night. The 80s died a long time ago.

 

[HurstSoGood]

If the Dubs need a guy to sit at the end of the bench, wave towels, and help with water... all for the league minimum....I know a guy who is willing to relocate.

 

[RoDaddy]

Doesn't this entire experiment depend on Klay Thompson's ability to adjust to being the third wheel?
.

Yeah, and although we're desperately looking for a silver lining here, there will always be Red's famous quote when the Lakers brought in Chamberlin to join West and Baylor in 1969 to form what was considered to be an unbeatable team (only to be beaten by the C's in the finals). It was essentially "they may have 3 superstars, but there's only one ball"

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Bogut heading to Dallas (but the interesting/relevant part):
After all the moving and shaking, the Warriors will have the league’s best top-six rotation with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Durant, Draymond Green and Shaun Livingston. The Warriors decided to pick up the final $2.8 million of Livingston’s $5.8 million 2016-17 salary.

The rest of the Warriors’ roster includes 2015 first-round pick Kevon Looney and this year’s draft selections Damian Jones and Patrick McCaw, leaving the Warriors with only the $2.9 mid-level exception and minimum contracts to fill out the final five or six spots.

They could really use a veteran power forward type, who can rebound, D and pass the ball. And hope for emergence from one of Jones or Looney.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Zaza 2.9M that's shameful

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Lol wut? What a great bargain signing for them.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Mozgov got 65 million!

 

[BigSoxFan]

Zaza clearly doesn't care about his legacy.

 

[tbrep]

Phenomenal pickup to get Zaza for that price. He had the 6th highest offensive rebound % and the 9th highest total rebound % in the league last year.

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Didn't he miss his penalty for Italy?

 

[Devizier]

Yikes.

 

[BaseballJones]

If Curry & Durant are averaging 27+ apiece, Klay is averaging 8-10 points a night. The 80s died a long time ago.

Even more to my point then.

But seriously, when they roll out the lineup of Curry, Thompson, Durant, Green, and, say, Iguodala, how in the world are teams going to stop them? The first three are all capable of 30+ a night. Green is more than capable of 20+ a night if he was a primary option. Iguodala isn't as good as the other guys, obviously, but he can still be dangerous.

No team has five quality defenders that can really stop the Warriors.

 

[Bergs]

I have a hunch that this is not going to work out well for them. It's like marrying the Perfect 10 who turns out to be not-so-great.

Unicorn Zone.

 

[Devizier]

I know the win totals futures aren't out yet, but we're looking at 70, right?

 

[nighthob]

Even more to my point then.

But seriously, when they roll out the lineup of Curry, Thompson, Durant, Green, and, say, Iguodala, how in the world are teams going to stop them? The first three are all capable of 30+ a night. Green is more than capable of 20+ a night if he was a primary option. Iguodala isn't as good as the other guys, obviously, but he can still be dangerous.

No team has five quality defenders that can really stop the Warriors.

The one ball thing is going to be a problem for them. I'm sure Klay is saying the right things now, but remember what the Celtics had to deal with when the 36 year old Ray Allen got reduced to the role the Warriors are about to demote the 26 year old Klay to. I give this till February before the stories start leaking out into the wild. Because these Warriors are going to be under a microscope like no one else ever.

Also I can't imagine that Thompson's agent is thrilled about facing the prospect of having to convince teams in three years that Klay the 3&D specialist can still be a primary scorer. They'll be forced to make a trade eventually.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

The one ball thing is going to be a problem for them. I'm sure Klay is saying the right things now, but remember what the Celtics had to deal with when the 36 year old Ray Allen got reduced to the role the Warriors are about to demote the 26 year old Klay to. I give this till February before the stories start leaking out into the wild. Because these Warriors are going to be under a microscope like no one else ever.

Also I can't imagine that Thompson's agent is thrilled about facing the prospect of having to convince teams in three years that Klay the 3&D specialist can still be a primary scorer. They'll be forced to make a trade eventually.

Here is the thing about Thompson though - he isn't an alpha and has benefitted greatly from playing with Curry and in the Warriors system. Furthermore, when he is going, Curry et al feed him until its clear its not working anymore. If any team has the system, coaching and culture to spread the ball, its Golden State (and San Antonio of course which informs a lot of the Warriors offense). I would be shocked if Thompson makes any noise, Curry is all about winning and Durant has co-existed with one of the most ball dominant players in the NBA for almost his entire career. I don't know if this will all work out as well as some think but I doubt it will be due to guys feeling they aren't getting enough touches. The Warriors share the ball better than anyone in the NBA right now.

 

[Granite Sox]

Even more to my point then.

But seriously, when they roll out the lineup of Curry, Thompson, Durant, Green, and, say, Iguodala, how in the world are teams going to stop them? ...

No team has five quality defenders that can really stop the Warriors.

Arguably, the Celtics do now (Bradley, Smart, Crowder, Horford, Brown, Rozier, Johnson).

That's 42 fouls, loads of snarl, perimeter and interior balance, and lots of defensive potential right there...

No one in the West can match that (quantity-wise), however.

Wishful thinking? Sure. But I'm hesitant to join the coronation just yet.

 

[the moops]

Also I can't imagine that Thompson's agent is thrilled about facing the prospect of having to convince teams in three years that Klay the 3&D specialist can still be a primary scorer. They'll be forced to make a trade eventually.

Klay has pretty much always been a 3 & D specialist though, hasn't he? I mean, not in the same sense as Kyle Korver, but Thompson takes nearly 50% of his shots from 3 point land. I wouldn't be surprised to see Klay average nearly the same amount of points next year with Durant on the team for I can see them resting Steph and Durant a lot more during the regular season to reduce injury risk.

 

[nighthob]

Klay takes a lot of shots now, he hasn't been the other guy on the floor since his rookie season. What his agent will be tasked with in the 2019 offseason is convincing teams that KT can still put in more than 20+ per night in a starring role despite the fact that he's spent the last three years shooting corner treys. And, no, he isn't scoring 20 p/g with Steph and KD. The 80s died a long time ago.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Klay takes a lot of shots now, he hasn't been the other guy on the floor since his rookie season. What his agent will be tasked with in the 2019 offseason is convincing teams that KT can still put in more than 20+ per night in a starring role despite the fact that he's spent the last three years shooting corner treys. And, no, he isn't scoring 20 p/g with Steph and KD. The 80s died a long time ago.

So did 80s style analysis of free agents. His agent wont have a tough time convincing teams so long as his rate stats continue to look good.

 

[nighthob]

90s style baseball analysis of basketball also died. People actually pay attention to what players are actually doing on the floor, rather than looking at contextless numbers. His game is about to undergo a big change, and his agent is going to have to convince teams that Thompson can still do what he hasn't done in three years, score efficiently in the teeth of defensive focus.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

90s style baseball analysis of basketball also died. People actually pay attention to what players are actually doing on the floor, rather than looking at contextless numbers. His game is about to undergo a big change, and his agent is going to have to convince teams that Thompson can still do what he hasn't done in three years, score efficiently in the teeth of defensive focus.

You must have been asleep for the last 5 days.

 

[DJnVa]

The Warriors attempted about 85 shots per game last season.

Curry: 20
Klay: 17
Green: 10
Iggy/Livingston: 11

That's 58-60 with rounding. Barnes took about 9.5/game--that gets you to 68-70 or so. That left about 15 or so shots/game for the rest of the roster. Replace Barnes with Durant's 19/game and that's 10 fewer shots for the rest of the roster.

If Curry, Klay, Green, Iggy, Livingston, and KD each takes 1 less shot/game (and considering that there *should* be more blowouts this year, and thus fewer minutes for each), you're only taking away 4 shots from the rest of the roster. I don't think this is as big a deal as it seems.

 

[bowiac]

The other usage factor is going to be rest. I would bet on Curry and Durant getting a healthy number of DNP-CD games.

 

[wutang112878]

This has epic fail potential written all over it. The 'collect as many superstars' as possible is great for fantasy teams and winning the offseason but its really, really difficult to make it work on the court for 82 games and keep everyone happy enough going into the playoffs. If they were adding a back to the basket guy who demands doubles and could kick out, this offense would be terrifying. But I have a difficult time seeing how to design the offense so that 3 guys with very similar skills.

Here are some specific issues that I see:

• Sharing the 1 ball, all 3 members of Run KDC are going to have to take significantly less shots
• Alpha dog - Durant and Westbrook made it work but will this work with Durant and Curry
• 4th Dog - Draymond was fine being the 3rd wheel last year, but will he be ok being the 4th
• Turnovers - the Warriors total turnover numbers werent awful, but they had some purely moronic turnovers at crucial times in the playoffs and the more untraditional their offense becomes the more I think this will become a problem for them.
• Resource shift, the Warriors are now spending more for elite offensive talent at the expense of the rest of their roster which means
  • Less depth - adding Durant forces them to move Bogut, and probably means they lose Ezili, Speights and Barbosa. Individually they arent huge loses, but collectively thats a lot of depth to lose and those guys played some significant moments for them during the playoffs
  • Defense from Bigs - Bogut, Speights and Ezili werent amazing but they were pretty effective and collectively average ~48 minutes a game. Meanwhile, Zaza only averaged ~26 last year
  • Rebounding - the Bogut, Ezili, Speights combo were effective enough rebounding the ball, but GS was basically league average in offensive and defensive rebounding last year and having a drop in this could really become a problem because to share the 1 ball, you need to get the ball

This brings us to Kerr, I'm sure all the coaches who are winning less than 40 games a year would love to have this problem, but he has a very challenging season in front of him. This is going to be challenging from an X's and O's perspective because the blueprints he has to make this work are probably Nellie and Dantoni type basketball and that just doesnt win in the playoffs. But also the ego and sharing the basketball stuff is going to probably be just as difficult of a challenge. I know everyone is saying the right thing at the moment, but he'll be asking 4 guys to take and do less offensively, but also do more defensively, get more rebounds and do more dirty work which is going to be really, really challenging. I think Kerr is a good coach and if he makes this work then I'll say he is great but I'm not convinced that he is at the moment.

 

[DJnVa]

Sharing the 1 ball, all 3 members of Run KDC are going to have to take significantly less shots

No, not really. Do the math--replacing Barnes with KD is +10 in shots/game based on last year's numbers. Having each of the top 6 take just ONE less shot per game and that's down to +4.

Add to that the fewer minutes played due to the likelihood of blowouts and it's not going to be a huge issue.

 

[wutang112878]

No, not really. Do the math--replacing Barnes with KD is +10 in shots/game based on last year's numbers. Having each of the top 6 take just ONE less shot per game and that's down to +4.

Add to that the fewer minutes played due to the likelihood of blowouts and it's not going to be a huge issue.

I'm not arguing with your math, but I just dont think it works that way. Because its not exactly the mentality of 'at the end of the season will I have the 1,400 shots I expect', its changing from shooting and touching the ball at the rate that you are accustomed to. Its getting each member of your top 5 lineup to accept a certain role to make that top 5 work and accept that less of the offense is going to run through them. In your top 5 lineup the FGA per 36 for that 5th wheel cant get any lower, not because the coach demands to get that guy a specific number of touches, but because that guy is forced to take a specific number of shots to keep opposing defenses honest & bail the team out when the shot clock is winding down.

Simply putting it as less shots might be over simplifying it. Last year Durant averaged (these are all per 36) 19.3 FGA, 5 assists and 3.5 turnovers, so thats 27.8 plays per game where he was the guy, he either got to shoot it, make something happen to get an assist or he screwed up and turned it over. Barnes meanwhile averaged 11.2 FGA, 2 assists and 1 turnover or 14.3 plays, which really highlights that he was a 'stand here and shoot it if we give it to you' guy, and this is 13.5 fewer 'that was possession' plays than Durant. I'm sticking with my theory that your 5th wheel simply has to touch it that much, so now we are asking all top 4 guys to accept 3 less plays like that per game and all of them are going to have to play differently as well.

With Curry for instance, he is going to have to get used to playing more off of the ball, holding it less, shooting less and deferring to Durant at times. Green will have to primarily play down low, wont get as many touches and certainly wont be anywhere need the 7 assists per he had. Thompson isnt going to get to operate with the ball much at all, and he is probably going to be the most impacted by taking less shots. Durant certainly played nice with Westbrook so the deferring to Curry might not be a problem, but his game will have to change and he is going to shoot less.

I'm not completely doom and gloom about this but there are going to be some challenges thats all. These are the issues that arent problems for fantasy teams but are problems for real teams. Like look at OKC, I guess Ibaka was upset this year because he was promised that he was going to be featured more in the offense and thats Ibaka. There are just some inflated egos in the NBA.