The (Way Too Early) 2015 Summer FA Gold Rush Thread

[nighthob]

OK, it's early for this thread, but let's be honest, talking about '16 and beyond is what's going to get us through the season. As entertaining as they've been in a losing cause, the piling up of losses is going to wear on us. Not to mention the endless Rondo debate. I'm going to divide this into four lists, the first one is going to be the primetime players, the second one the useful vets of varying ability, the third one the young, possibly undervalued guys that Boston might be able to poach, and the last one the retreads. Some guys on the first list are probably completely out absent special circumstances, and some are just going to be bidding wars that Boston may not win or may not want to.

Stars & Near Stars

• Marc Gasol- Probably won't leave Memphis, but should have the life of a max deal left in his body.
• Kawhi Leonard- Probably not in play as the Spurs would likely just match any offer. The only real possibility I could see is if Boston cut a deal with the Hawks (e.g. Rondo/Green for Teague/2015#1) or Knicks, end up with a second lottery pick and there's someone the Spurs really want on the board. Probably a pipedream.
• LaMarcus Aldridge- Probably not leaving Portland, but if Boston landed one of the centers in the draft then LMA would look really good here.
• Goran Dragic- Another year out there and there's no way he picks up that option. But will probably return.
• Kevin Love- It would be funny if he Elton Branded the Cavs, and funnier still if he did it for Boston. Sad it won't happen.
• Greg Monroe- Now that he's a UFA, the odds are that he draws a near max deal. I would hate the fit with Sullinger/Olynyk, but if they had someone in front of him that could defend you can live with him in the post (Detroit's most effective defensive pairings last year featured Smith and Monroe at the 4/5).
• DeAndre Jordan- Going max this summer. Probably with the Clippers, though I'm sure the Lakers will chase hard.
• Al Jefferson- Probably belongs on the next list, but he's a center, scores a lot, grabs boards, and will opt out of that current deal to re-up at the max.
• Monta Ellis- Almost certain to opt of that deal, but probably not on Boston's radar.

I'm not going to say much about these guys, they're going to be out there, Boston can always make room for them. But I'm going to focus on the ones that I think they might actually sign. Either as part of fielding a team around Rondo after they cave and give him his max or as part of the "We've done our time in the lottery time to fill in around those guys" thing.

Useful Vets

• Rudy Gay (in a keep Rondo happy & here bid)
• Paul Millsap
• Thad Young
• Aaron Afflalo
• Omer Asik
• Wes Matthews
• Jeremy Lin
• Wilson Chandler

It's these next two lists I want to discuss. This first one are the young guys I think are all going to end up in play for one reason or another, and Boston should have an opening to sign & trade for these guys, or in some cases simply make the bidding too rich for the current clubs. Some of them are on the verge of being pushed out of their jobs by other lottery picks.

Up & Comers

• Tristan Thompson- The Cavs clearly view him as part of their trade package of the future, but he's hitting RFA status on a team where he's bench depth. This is the first year he's played for a non-clusterfuck, but he's got no future there. So he should be in range for Boston, either with a large enough offer this summer to make the Cavs think twice or in trade prior to that.
• Reggie Jackson- There will be a luxury tax next year and the Thunder might not like paying Avery Bradley+ money for their sixth man, so I can see him in play for the Thunder, either over the summer or later on this year if they want to shuffle the bench around some.
• Tobias Harris- Is probably going to lose his job to Gordon in Orlando, and could be a target for Boston to replace Green with.
• Jimmy Butler- With all the money the Bulls are spending elsewhere...
• K.J. McDaniel- Trolled Philly and will be an RFA next summer
• Jae Crowder- I irrationally love Crowder
• Dre' Green- And Green

This list is for next summer's Evan Turners, guys that just haven't panned out for whatever reason and are now available. Again, just throwing out the names of some guys that I think Boston might look at as worthwhile investments, which is why I haven't bothered with Enes Kantner yet.

Reclamation Projects/Retreads

• Xavier Henry- Has been pretty good for LA, but if Green's gone then he's certainly out there as a possible replacement.
• Wes Johnson- As is this guy, though he's a few years older than XH.
• Thomas Robinson- UFA, I believe, so this one's simple
• Derrick Williams- Restricted, but I don't think it would take that much to get Sacramento to not match.
• Austin Rivers- Destined to join dad in LA, but, he's out there.
• Gerald Henderson- Meh. But if they trade Bradley in season he's a possible replacement this summer.
• Ricky Ledo- A talented knucklehead, but he'd get time here.

 

[Brickowski]

There are probably 75 more guys you could slot on this list, starting with Rondo, Green (player option) and Bass.
 
Here are just  a few:
 
Amir Johnson
Louis Williams
Amare Stoudemire
Bargnani
Hibbert (player option)
David West (player option)
Brand
Biyumbo (player option)
Tyson Chandler
Barea
Perkins
Nick Collison
Enes Kanter
Wesley Matthews
Robin Lopez
Thomas Robinson
Joel Freeland
 
And I'm sure I've missed quite a few, plus I'm going by Hoopshype so some guys may have signed extensions that I don't know about.

 

[nighthob]

Well, I wasn't bothering with Boston's own free agents in the list, and I didn't bother with West or Hibbert because I don't think there's any way they're turning down their options. I mean West might, but it would only be to go ring chasing.

 

[Brickowski]

Well, I wasn't bothering with Boston's own free agents in the list, and I didn't bother with West or Hibbert because I don't think there's any way they're turning down their options. I mean West might, but it would only be to go ring chasing.

It's hard to predict what players with options will do until we see what kind of seasons they have and where the cap will be for 2015-16.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Well, I wasn't bothering with Boston's own free agents in the list, and I didn't bother with West or Hibbert because I don't think there's any way they're turning down their options. I mean West might, but it would only be to go ring chasing.

I disagree on Hibbert not opting out. He'd be foolish to play next year for $15m when he is surely a max guy on the market. Add in foot injury history to 7-2 players and I fully expect him to get paid by the Pacers.

 

[nighthob]

I disagree on Hibbert not opting out. He'd be foolish to play next year for $15m when he is surely a max guy on the market. Add in foot injury history to 7-2 players and I fully expect him to get paid by the Pacers.

I also fully expect him to sign an extension, which is why I didn't bother putting him on the list.

 

[Swedgin]

OK, it's early for this thread, but let's be honest, talking about '16 and beyond is what's going to get us through the season. As entertaining as they've been in a losing cause, the piling up of losses is going to wear on us. Not to mention the endless Rondo debate. I'm going to divide this into four lists, the first one is going to be the primetime players, the second one the useful vets of varying ability, the third one the young, possibly undervalued guys that Boston might be able to poach, and the last one the retreads. Some guys on the first list are probably completely out absent special circumstances, and some are just going to be bidding wars that Boston may not win or may not want to.

Stars & Near Stars

• Marc Gasol- Probably won't leave Memphis, but should have the life of a max deal left in his body.
• Kawhi Leonard- Probably not in play as the Spurs would likely just match any offer. The only real possibility I could see is if Boston cut a deal with the Hawks (e.g. Rondo/Green for Teague/2015#1) or Knicks, end up with a second lottery pick and there's someone the Spurs really want on the board. Probably a pipedream.
• LaMarcus Aldridge- Probably not leaving Portland, but if Boston landed one of the centers in the draft then LMA would look really good here.
• Goran Dragic- Another year out there and there's no way he picks up that option. But will probably return.
• Kevin Love- It would be funny if he Elton Branded the Cavs, and funnier still if he did it for Boston. Sad it won't happen.
• Greg Monroe- Now that he's a UFA, the odds are that he draws a near max deal. I would hate the fit with Sullinger/Olynyk, but if they had someone in front of him that could defend you can live with him in the post (Detroit's most effective defensive pairings last year featured Smith and Monroe at the 4/5).
• DeAndre Jordan- Going max this summer. Probably with the Clippers, though I'm sure the Lakers will chase hard.
• Al Jefferson- Probably belongs on the next list, but he's a center, scores a lot, grabs boards, and will opt out of that current deal to re-up at the max.
• Monta Ellis- Almost certain to opt of that deal, but probably not on Boston's radar.

I'm not going to say much about these guys, they're going to be out there, Boston can always make room for them. But I'm going to focus on the ones that I think they might actually sign. Either as part of fielding a team around Rondo after they cave and give him his max or as part of the "We've done our time in the lottery time to fill in around those guys" thing.

Useful Vets

• Rudy Gay (in a keep Rondo happy & here bid)
• Paul Millsap
• Thad Young
• Aaron Afflalo
• Omer Asik
• Wes Matthews
• Jeremy Lin
• Wilson Chandler

It's these next two lists I want to discuss. This first one are the young guys I think are all going to end up in play for one reason or another, and Boston should have an opening to sign & trade for these guys, or in some cases simply make the bidding too rich for the current clubs. Some of them are on the verge of being pushed out of their jobs by other lottery picks.

Up & Comers

• Tristan Thompson- The Cavs clearly view him as part of their trade package of the future, but he's hitting RFA status on a team where he's bench depth. This is the first year he's played for a non-clusterfuck, but he's got no future there. So he should be in range for Boston, either with a large enough offer this summer to make the Cavs think twice or in trade prior to that.
• Reggie Jackson- There will be a luxury tax next year and the Thunder might not like paying Avery Bradley+ money for their sixth man, so I can see him in play for the Thunder, either over the summer or later on this year if they want to shuffle the bench around some.
• Tobias Harris- Is probably going to lose his job to Gordon in Orlando, and could be a target for Boston to replace Green with.
• Jimmy Butler- With all the money the Bulls are spending elsewhere...
• K.J. McDaniel- Trolled Philly and will be an RFA next summer
• Jae Crowder- I irrationally love Crowder
• Dre' Green- And Green

This list is for next summer's Evan Turners, guys that just haven't panned out for whatever reason and are now available. Again, just throwing out the names of some guys that I think Boston might look at as worthwhile investments, which is why I haven't bothered with Enes Kantner yet.

Reclamation Projects/Retreads

• Xavier Henry- Has been pretty good for LA, but if Green's gone then he's certainly out there as a possible replacement.
• Wes Johnson- As is this guy, though he's a few years older than XH.
• Thomas Robinson- UFA, I believe, so this one's simple
• Derrick Williams- Restricted, but I don't think it would take that much to get Sacramento to not match.
• Austin Rivers- Destined to join dad in LA, but, he's out there.
• Gerald Henderson- Meh. But if they trade Bradley in season he's a possible replacement this summer.
• Ricky Ledo- A talented knucklehead, but he'd get time here.

 

 
Great post.   I would move Millsap to the near stars category.  Now that he has three point range to go with rest of his jack of all trades game, I think he can be third best player on a championship team.   Similarly, Henderson is not really a reclamation project or a retread.  Given the relative dearth of talent at the position, he is a starting two guard in the league.  If Thad Young is a vet, with 5 years in the league so is Henderson.
 
In terms of the Celt's I would be happy to see them give Thomas Robinson a look.  If Stevens was on board I would do the same with Ledo, though I don't see why Dallas would let him go (I thought he had a non-guaranteed contract that runs through the next few years).  As to the up and comers - McDaniel and Harris also are worth a look.   Thompson does nothing for me.   I can't imagine Butler getting out of Chicago.  Given their cap situation they can't replace him if he leaves and he is the Bull's only wing defender.  For a team that is going to have to go through Lebron and co for the foreseeable future you need somebody to guard wings and Dunleavy is not that guy.  

 

[moly99]

If Greg Monroe comes with a time machine that takes us back to the 1980's when his style of basketball works then I'm game. Otherwise not so much.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Wes Matthews is pretty intriguing as another scorer. He isnt a star per se but would pair well if they could land an elite front court player.

 

[nighthob]

Strictly speaking this isn't a free agent discussion, but the Thunder have to be looking at Westbrook going all AI on the Western Conference and thinking "Maybe it's time cash in Durant for a haul to build the team around Westbrook?" don't they?

 

[nighthob]

I think the longer they wait the more the price goes down. Give a team a full year and they'll likely pay a mint, give them 30 games and they're not going to go all in. Meaning that the only deal available to them at the deadline is going to be the Wiz, whereas this summer I think most of the NBA would sell their souls.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

I think the longer they wait the more the price goes down. Give a team a full year and they'll likely pay a mint, give them 30 games and they're not going to go all in. Meaning that the only deal available to them at the deadline is going to be the Wiz, whereas this summer I think most of the NBA would sell their souls.

 
Trade him to avoid paying for him, or to pre-empt his exit?

 

[TheDeuce222]

I mean, what would even be a reasonable starting point for the Celtics if they wanted to make an offer for Durant (complete and utter fantasy I know)? It would have to include our first rounder this summer, Brooklyn 2016 and Brooklyn 2018 to even get Presti to pick up the phone I would think.  Wallace and Bradley (who actually might be the defensive-minded starting 2-guard next to RW they have so long looked for) could make the salaries work.  I still can't imagine that would be enough, and with the flight risk in 2016 for Wash or warmer pastures, would it be worth blowing up the rebuild to hope they could talk him into staying?  I dunno, actually.  It might be worth the risk, if Durant is healthy.  He's that good.  

 

[nighthob]

Trade him to avoid paying for him, or to pre-empt his exit?

Well, I think it has to be obvious by now that they're best served letting RWB do his Iverson 2.0 act with a caddy, and Durant ain't caddying. So if they go Russcentric (as they absolutely should) they're upping the odds that Durant leaves for DC in a year and a half. And this summer they could get a king's ransom for him, so if there's a time to do it it's now.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I mean, what would even be a reasonable starting point for the Celtics if they wanted to make an offer for Durant (complete and utter fantasy I know)? It would have to include our first rounder this summer, Brooklyn 2016 and Brooklyn 2018 to even get Presti to pick up the phone I would think.  Wallace and Bradley (who actually might be the defensive-minded starting 2-guard next to RW they have so long looked for) could make the salaries work.  I still can't imagine that would be enough, and with the flight risk in 2016 for Wash or warmer pastures, would it be worth blowing up the rebuild to hope they could talk him into staying?  I dunno, actually.  It might be worth the risk, if Durant is healthy.  He's that good.  

There isn't one.
He'll have a list of places he'd re-sign and Boston won't be on it.

 

[nighthob]

I mean, what would even be a reasonable starting point for the Celtics if they wanted to make an offer for Durant (complete and utter fantasy I know)?

I don't think there's anything there unless they walk out of the draft with either Okafor or Russell. Smart & Okafor would be a good starting point, given that that would free up Kanter as part of a sign & trade to land a low usage, three & D small forward. Russell would work well with Westbrook since D'Angelo can play on or off the ball, but the secondary cost is probably higher.

There isn't one.
He'll have a list of places he'd re-sign and Boston won't be on it.

With all due respect none of us know the answer to that question.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If Westbrook loses Durant only to be replaced by a couple 19-year olds he'll be the next one looking to bolt OKC.

Then again we couldn't get JaVale Frickin McGhee to commit to play here next year.....wake me up when we convince Durant.

 

[nighthob]

McGee hasn't been willing to commit to anyone for next year, which is why he's still watching his games at home with the rest of us.

 

[The X Man Cometh]

Well, I think it has to be obvious by now that they're best served letting RWB do his Iverson 2.0 act with a caddy, and Durant ain't caddying. So if they go Russcentric (as they absolutely should) they're upping the odds that Durant leaves for DC in a year and a half. And this summer they could get a king's ransom for him, so if there's a time to do it it's now.

 
I like that you are thinking outside the box. But I can't agree with the conclusion if I'm OKC.

Trying to replicate Iverson's 76ers, that never won anything, and never got farther in the playoffs than the Thunder already have seems foolish. What about the Lakers (Bryant, Gasol, Bynum), the Heat (James, Wade, Bosh), or the Celtics (Pierce, KG, Allen)?
 
There isn't much precedent for one-man shows winning anything. Wade in '06 and Dirk in '11 are the closest you'll get, and even then would you go out of your way to not have Wade and Dirk on the same team in their prime? RWB and Durant compare fairly well to those two.
 
As a fan of the Celtics I hope the Thunder crash and burn, and we get a shot at their three best players. But I don't see the point of dismantling the core from OKC's standpoint. Especially since the return (draft picks) is not immediate and the team taking a step back could motivate RWB to bolt and leave you with nothing.

 

[nighthob]

To be brutally frank I think the Thunder are more dangerous now than they were a couple of weeks ago. And it isn't about dismantling their team as much as admitting that Westbrook is probably the best alpha-scorer in the NBA and that they're better off surrounding him with secondary scorers than another alpha.

 

[Kliq]

Nighthob, are you really saying that the Thunder are better off without Durant, than with him?

 

[nighthob]

No, I'm saying they're better off with Westbrook playing a larger role than having him be the other guy.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Didn't think this was worth a separate thread and this is probably the best fit.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-sons-of-pop-and-the-zen-master-its-time-to-properly-measure-the-value-of-nba-coaches/
Goldsberry in talking about how we don't really evaluate coach impacts well notes some things about 3pt%, and how system changes players results by getting better shots (in particular he notes the Jump by Demarre Carroll with Budenholzer, and the collapse of Wilson Chandler under Shaw).
It makes me wonder if there is a case for a market inefficiency here, looking for guys who shoot decently from 3 on teams with bad systems (DEN, LAL) who you would expect to see a jump in 3pt% in a system that gets them better 3 opportunities. Especially with player tracking, you can have an analyst categorize attempts to see what a player might be expected to do better in your system.

 

[mcpickl]

Strictly speaking this isn't a free agent discussion, but the Thunder have to be looking at Westbrook going all AI on the Western Conference and thinking "Maybe it's time cash in Durant for a haul to build the team around Westbrook?" don't they?

No, they don't.
 
OKC should, and surely will, keep him until Durant decides he wants to leave as a free agent.

 

[Kliq]

Not to mention the fact that it is extremely rare for a team to trade a top 5 player and winning the trade. The only one I can think of at the top of my head is Dwight, and that had more to do with Dwight collapsing and not because Orlando got a tremendous haul for him.

 

[Devizier]

Not to mention the fact that it is extremely rare for a team to trade a top 5 player and winning the trade. The only one I can think of at the top of my head is Dwight, and that had more to do with Dwight collapsing and not because Orlando got a tremendous haul for him.

 
Kind of a narrow criteria, because top five players almost never get traded. If they do, it's because they're forcing their way out.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I thought it was the Celtics who wouldn't commit to JaVale Frickin McGhee playing here next year?

No it was the other way around. We wanted him locked up for next season at the max we could fit him in which was $2m. JaVale (or Javale's agent) demanded to be a FA at the end of THIS season to hit the open market.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I refuse to acknowledge the dream some have of a top tier FA coming here anytime soon. To every rule there is an exception and Ainge has a mancrush on Kevin Love but again if I'm Love and can go back West to the Lakers or shovel snow in Boston which would I choose?

I'm looking at two second tier wing guys right now who can step in as our starting 3.

Demarre Carroll was formerly recruited by Pierce and KG to replace Tony Allen prior to bursting on the scene in Atlanta. Can Ainge get over that he was wrong in failing to bring him in back then while overpaying the 3 and D guy now?

Khris Middleton was my binky coming out of A&M and I had fingers crossed he slipped before we ended up with Kris Joseph on the second round of the 2012 draft. He always had the athelticism and first step to be an effective NBA offensive player but has now added consistency in his 3-point shot. The 2 may be his better position but when Evan Turner is your starting 3 you can do worse than Middleton.

Both will be overpays as virtually all FA are however we have dollars to spend this summer prior to the cap jumping up in 2016 negating any advantage we have in this market. We are going to spend for this reason and it's these 2nd tier guys we have a legit shot at.

 

[ALiveH]

I'd be biased towards younger guys because I think this team is still 2-3 years away (hopefully).  So, I don't really want to bring in a 27+ year old guy, who's gonna be on the wrong side of 30 & starting his decline just as we're starting to contend (again, hopefully).
 
I'd target UFA than RFA for obvious reasons (the other team's ability to match makes the transaction far more difficult and adds an element of winner's curse).
 
For that reason, I like the idea of Middleton.  The rest of my short list (apart from the obvious studs that we have no shot with):
 
Thomas Robinson is young & tall - not sure if he's a good rim defender.
 
Greg Monroe - not the best fit on this roster, but we've gotta take a shot.  He's young & legit up-and-coming star.  He'd be a decent value at the max (given the big jump up in the cap).  Plus, Boston as a city & organization would be a big upgrade for him.
 
John Jenkins is a young UFA.  Not the best roster fit, but he's a sleeper as he's been really good for the Hawks in very limited minutes.
 
Greg Smith is a young UFA PF.  Again, might not be the best roster fit, but he's been decent in very limited minutes for Dallas & is buried on their bench.
 
Robin Lopez & DeAndre Jordan - good young UFA & a great roster fits.  If Portland & LAC have trouble keeping them, we've gotta take a shot.
 
Alexis Ajinca - has put up really good numbers at center in limited minutes for the Pelicans.
 
Lavoy Allen - has been good in limited minutes & can protect the rim better than KO or Sully from the 4.

 

[cardiacs]

I think Ajinca is a quality big in the making but NO probably realizes it and they would rather try to deal Asik. If we could get either guy for a reasonable price I would be all for it but I would much prefer Ajinca... he's got more offensive upside than Asik. 
 
edit: I didn't realize Ajinca was so old, I thought he was 24ish. Still, would prefer him to Asik. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Asik is a FA this summer and will be a hot commodity on the open market. He's a real nice fit next to Davis allowing him to not have to deal with defending physical bigs in the paint. NO should look to keep him but he won't come cheap by any means.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Asik is a FA this summer and will be a hot commodity on the open market. He's a real nice fit next to Davis allowing him to not have to deal with defending physical bigs in the paint. NO should look to keep him but he won't come cheap by any means.

 
He's been a rumored Ainge target for a while so I'm sure he'll at least check in on him in case he gets lost in the shuffle among the more glamorous bigs who will be available. I'd feel better about him as a Celtic if they had an athletic weak-side shotblocking type to put next to him but it would be nice to have at least one credible interior defender on the roster.

 

[bowiac]

Middleton is going to be an interesting free agency case. Last year a lot of the analytics community was pointing to Draymond Green as a potential max player, but "conventional wisdom" didn't love him yet. Conventional wisdom has now pretty much aligned with the stats people on Green, and him getting the max seems pretty likely.
 
Middleton on the other hand, I don't know who thinks he should be maxed out, but he's 23, he currently ranks 8th on RPM, has good athleticism, has a good three point shot, can play multiple positions, etc... This is a long way of saying he's going to get a surprising amount of money from an analytics friendly team that doesn't know what to do with him, but also doesn't know what to do with their cap space.