The Xander Problem

[johnnywayback]

I don't think this is a new idea, but I don't see a thread focused on it, so here goes.

Xander Bogaerts is my favorite player on this Red Sox team. I've followed him since he was a skinny Aruban teenager on nearly nobody's radar. I love the way he plays the game. I think his bat is supremely underrated. I never want to see him wear another team's uniform.

But. He has never been a superlative defensive shortstop. I am by no means an expert on defensive statistics, but over nine seasons, he's 61 runs below average. And -- actually, you know what, let's just quote Fangraphs from June:

Of the 37 players with at least 1,000 innings at shortstop over the past four seasons, Bogaerts isn’t just the low man, he’s practically an outlier, as his -31 runs is nine below the 36th-ranked Jorge Polanco, and 13 below the 35th-ranked Amed Rosario. Via the component breakdowns visible at Baseball Reference (Air, Range, and Throwing, which join with the team-level Positioning for what Sports Info Solutions now calls the PART System, applicable to their data from 2013 onward), Bogaerts’ biggest deficit this year is his throwing, which has been eight runs below average already, though only 12 below average over the four seasons. Range-wise, he’s four runs below average this year, but 19 below for the four seasons.

It’s worth noting that Bogaerts’ bad numbers at shortstop go all the way back to his 2014 rookie season; he’s 60 runs below average during that time, which isn’t quite Jeteresque — he’s never had a season below -11 DRS, whereas the Yankees captain had eight such seasons over the final 12 years of his career — but it’s dead last among the 71 players with at least 1,000 innings at the spot, 19 fewer than the 70th-ranked Polanco and 23 fewer than the 69th-ranked José Reyes, though both of those players are/were much worse on a per-inning basis. Players this consistently subpar generally don’t stay at shortstop for this long.

I've always felt that, on his best days, he's competent. But even if that's the case, it's clear that the team defense needs a significant upgrade.

Meanwhile, Bogaerts can opt out after 2022. He will be looking, you'd think, for a massive contract that starts in 2023 (his age 30 season). And I imagine he will argue he should be paid like an elite shortstop -- a Lindor (10/341, includes buying out arb year), a Machado (10/300), and God only knows what Trevor Story and Trea Turner are going to do to reset the market.

So what are our options? Well, we can just plan to give him that contract and make him our shortstop through his mid-30s. But that doesn't seem like a very good idea: add five years of age to this Bogaerts and...well, let's just say you're not fixing your team defense issues that way.

Of course, we could move him off the position. But that creates two problems. One is that he's been pretty clear he only wants to play short. The other is...where do you play him?

You could, in theory, take care of the first problem by paying him shortstop money to play another position. But let's say he would be willing to go for that. Would you put him at 2B even though his biggest issue is range, especially range going to his right? I would have a hard time feeling comfortable with that. Would you put him at 3B even though his arm has been suspect this year? You might, except moving Devers dramatically reduces Devers's value (because I think he can be a good defensive 3B), plus it forces either him or Casas to DH, which is not something you want to lock in for a young player.

Honestly, it seems like Bogaerts's best defensive position during this contract might be LF. Do you really want to pay him shortstop money (or even third base money, like Arenado's $260m or Rendon's $245m) to play a low-value defensive position?

Making this even more complicated is that it seems like the best way to add a superstar to this team in the near future would be to sign one of the free agent shortstops: Story, Seager, Turner, Correa, etc. You really gonna sign one of them and then also sign Bogaerts?

Look: If Bogaerts sees the writing on the wall -- or if the other 29 teams do -- and we can sign him to a contract that would be reasonable for a guy with his bat who plays a non-premium defensive position...then, great. But if that isn't possible, then I think we only have a few options, none of which are good.

In fact, one of those options is terrible. If the guy you want at short long-term is one of this year's free agents -- Story, Seager, or for some reason Baez -- you have to make the Xander decision now. And I can imagine a scenario where (ugh, Jesus) we wind up trading my favorite member of the roster this winter.

Am I missing anything? What do we do?

 

[moondog80]

Is Devers is a respectable defensive 3B? If so, it seems like such a waste to move him to 1B, especially with Casas continuing to get rave reviews. If the SS market turns into musical chairs and someone is willing to take a non-crazy contract (you forgot to mention Correa), I have no problem with trading X.

 

[cantor44]

This is gonna be a mighty tricky proposition for the Red Sox and I don't envy Bloom. I love Xander, too for all the reasons you mention and then some: he plays hurt, he hustles, he's highly intelligent, he's humble.

But ... signing him to the kind of extension you mention would take him to his LATE 30s, not mid 30s.

I don't want him to play for another team either ... but I think ... if he opts out, you offer what you think he's worth and if he gets a better offer somewhere else you let him walk. Remember, too, that the #9 prospect in baseball is Marcelo Mayer. Who knows how he'll pan out, but if the prognosticators are correct, he will stick at SS and land in the bigs by 2025.

A lot of what happens to him will depend on how he performs in 2022. If he has a meh season, he might not opt out, though I suppose the odds are he will opt out.

I wonder if X takes big money on a shorter 2-3 year contract? Probably not, but that be the only way to keep him if he's unwilling to give a hometown discount over a longer contract.

 

[Kliq]

I don't see Xander being re-signed. He isn't the kind of player that I feel like Chaim will be willing to extend at a market-rate deal. Hopefully I'm wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me if this is his last season in Boston.

 

[NoXInNixon]

It's probably too soon to start making plans around a guy who's only 18 and probably isn't getting to Boston until 2024 or 2025. On the other hand, Mayer is already the #9 prospect in all of baseball. So I don't think it's too crazy to start keeping the SS position warm for him. To me, that precludes signing any of the premium FA shortstops this offseason, who will all probably get deals longer than 4 years.

I think that means we have to live with Xander's defense until Mayer gets here. And make that part of the negotiation. I expect it to be a tricky negotiation as well, primarily because there might not be that much of a bidding war if he opts out next year. There are four shortstops that are going to get huge contracts this off-season. How many landing spots are there going to be for him other than Boston?

 

[moondog80]

It's probably too soon to start making plans around a guy who's only 18 and probably isn't getting to Boston until 2024 or 2025. On the other hand, Mayer is already the #9 prospect in all of baseball. So I don't think it's too crazy to start keeping the SS position warm for him. To me, that precludes signing any of the premium FA shortstops this offseason, who will all probably get deals longer than 4 years.

I get it, but on the other hand if Xander is out the team has about 30 million in payroll commitments in 2023, maybe add another 15 to 20 mil for Devers in year 3 of arbitration. I firmly believe the team will, at a minimum, spend up to the tax threshold, which leaves over 150 million to spend. Tough to do that without dipping your toe into the big time FA pool, and this year's SS market might be the best chance to do that with a contract that is merely crazy and not totally insane. If they sign Baez or Correa or whoever for 5+ years and Mayer is ready in 2025 and the incumbent is still productive, you count your blessings and move them elsewhere, either another position or another team.

 

[GB5]

This teams inability to make routine and slightly above routine plays in the infield, has to me, along with our batters expanding the strike zone in big spots, has been the hallmark of the brutal slide the last month. The trickle down has been relentless. Extra outs, starting pitchers not going deep enough, overly taxed bullpen.
it was the same in 2004, when Theo identified the “Fatal Flaw” as infield defense and sent A much superior hitter in Nomar out because hue couldn’t get to balls anymore and acquired a glove first SS in OCAB and a glove only guy at first in eyechart. Does Bloom have the stones to trade Raffi or X for a guy who 99% of the region will find to be worse than Eithrr one of those even if the D is a big upgrade. Is it even the right move?
After watching this last month I am now of the mind they can’t come back next year with both of those guys making up half of the infield defensively.

 

[cantor44]

The highly unlikely scenario of X not opting out would be delightful (just dreaming) ....Starts at short next 3 seasons, then moves to another spot in 2025 for the last couple years of the contract ...

 

[snowmanny]

I don't see Xander being re-signed. He isn't the kind of player that I feel like Chaim will be willing to extend at a market-rate deal. Hopefully I'm wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me if this is his last season in Boston.

You may very well be right, but I think that we don’t know yet what Chaim will be like in Boston when it comes to money. In general, this ownership group spends a lot of money and frequently makes big pushes to win now. If they are spending $200,000,000 plus, or plus plus, there are going to be a few high priced pieces.

 

[Kliq]

You may very well be right, but I think that we don’t know yet what Chaim will be like in Boston when it comes to money. In general, this ownership group spends a lot of money and frequently makes big pushes to win now. If they are spending $200,000,000 plus, or plus plus, there are going to be a few high priced pieces.

The ownership did like to spend money. I remain skeptical under Chaim the Sox will be over $200 million. Again, hope to be proven wrong.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The "Xander Problem" totally sucks. I also love the guy and know he's not a very good defensive SS. I'm also somewhat skeptical of defensive statistics.... somewhat. Up until the ASB of this season, the stats never truly matched my eye-test. I never thought he was great or even above average but he seemed at least decent enough to not have to worry about his overall contribution to the club. It's only been the past 5-6 weeks that he truly looks Jeter-esque. Some of that I think is also mental and I believe there's room for improvement there.
But the overall issue is obvious.... he might only have 2 more, 3 more seasons that his deteriorating defense can be dealt with.... then where does he go? Is 2nd base any better for him? 3rd base? If Casas is the real deal then we'd want him at 1B. Devers at DH? X at 3rd? That makes the most sense to me but I don't know if the Sox will have a good replacement for him in 2 years. 3 maybe....?
I do like the idea of having Devers be able to play both 1B, 3B and DH along with Casas.. possibly Dalbec (yikes) or Schwarber also rotating in and out and being in LF (at Fenway) over the next 5 years and getting rid of the full time DH.

 

[moondog80]

The ownership did like to spend money. I remain skeptical under Chaim the Sox will be over $200 million. Again, hope to be proven wrong.

They spent right up to the tax this year. No huge acquisitions but could have easily went without Garrett Richards and a few other guys to save $. Why should we think this will change?

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

X's long term position is likely 3B. He has a strong arm, the lack of range won't be a problem at 3B (Bill James studied this years ago and range simply isn't much of a factor at that position), and he's played it before. The question then becomes what to do with Devers. I'd love to move Devers to 1B but I understand there are prospects on their way so maybe that's not a great solution.

 

[Rovin Romine]

X's long term position is likely 3B. He has a strong arm, the lack of range won't be a problem at 3B (Bill James studied this years ago and range simply isn't much of a factor at that position), and he's played it before. The question then becomes what to do with Devers. I'd love to move Devers to 1B but I understand there are prospects on their way so maybe that's not a great solution.

2022 is likely seen as a competetive year with Sale, et al. So they may sign some players this off-season.

JD also has an opt out at the end of this season, against his final year in 2022, so maybe the DH slot opens for next year.

Devers is a FA at the end of 2023.

Casas isn't really setting Portland on fire this year - and so may not be up next year.

It'll work out.

 

[sodenj5]

I might be wish-casting, but Xander was effusive in his praise for the Red Sox and the organization when he signed his extension, saying they were like family to him. He’s grown into the position of respected star veteran and leader.

I don’t think he would be unreceptive to a move off of SS if it meant staying in Boston his entire career.

I voted the LF contract and LF switch, but maybe they juice the numbers a bit to make up the monetary delta.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’m sure he’d be receptive, but Xander’s value is a lot less if the team sees him as a LF and not a SS. I’m assuming he opts out and finds a team willing to value him as a SS and pay him accordingly.

Kind of crazy to think that the core of the incredible ‘18 team could be almost completely gone in a span of 4-5 years.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

I voted for the “other” option. Today. Because this isn’t something we need to worry about until next year. Next year I might (probably would) vote differently, but for now it’s wait and see.
Which does mean that I wouldn’t chase one of the free agents. I’d let X play SS next year, then see where we’re at. Is his D even worse? Is he still hitting? Had he gotten hurt? Has anything changed with any other players that keeping X may impact (Devers, JD, Dalbec/Casas, Mayer, etc…)?
Too many variables now to worry about.

 

[cantor44]

2022 is likely seen as a competetive year with Sale, et al. So they may sign some players this off-season.

JD also has an opt out at the end of this season, against his final year in 2022, so maybe the DH slot opens for next year.

Devers is a FA at the end of 2023.

Casas isn't really setting Portland on fire this year - and so may not be up next year.

It'll work out.

I think that 2022 will indeed be viewed as a competitive year (it should be, and will see pretty much the same team with a couple of additions), and a year to squeeze the last possibilities out of this particular core. So, Xander is the starting SS 2022 with the hope of anchoring a championship run. However, If things go off the rails in 2022, and they are not in viable contention by the deadline, I suspect we may well see Xander traded and I'd understand the move (it would be right before he acquires his 10/5 rights I believe) ...

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I’m sure he’d be receptive, but Xander’s value is a lot less if the team sees him as a LF and not a SS. I’m assuming he opts out and finds a team willing to value him as a SS and pay him accordingly.

Kind of crazy to think that the core of the incredible ‘18 team could be almost completely gone in a span of 4-5 years.

The bolded here is bingo. Unless he's interested in signing a Pedroia-style, retire-as-a-Red Sox contract to forego his opt-out, there are only two options for Bloom: sign him to a SS market value contract or let him go. There's no chance of convincing an opted-out Xander to re-sign to a LF or 3B market contract.

 

[Bergs]

The bolded here is bingo. Unless he's interested in signing a Pedroia-style, retire-as-a-Red Sox contract to forego his opt-out, there are only two options for Bloom: sign him to a SS market value contract or let him go. There's no chance of convincing an opted-out Xander to re-sign to a LF or 3B market contract.

You're assuming other teams won't realize he won't be a good SS going forward. It's not just the Sox who won't want X doing a performance art tribute to late-stage Derk Jeter into his late 30's.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

The bolded here is bingo. Unless he's interested in signing a Pedroia-style, retire-as-a-Red Sox contract to forego his opt-out, there are only two options for Bloom: sign him to a SS market value contract or let him go. There's no chance of convincing an opted-out Xander to re-sign to a LF or 3B market contract.

Which assumes there's a market for him as a >30-year-old SS. That's not a given.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You're assuming other teams won't realize he won't be a good SS going forward. It's not just the Sox who won't want X doing a performance art tribute to late-stage Derk Jeter into his late 30's.

Which assumes there's a market for him as a >30-year-old SS. That's not a given.

Well, if he opts-out and the market collapses for him as a SS, then maybe he comes back to Bloom and signs a smaller deal. My main point is there's not much chance of negotiating anything with Bogaerts until then that assumes he's not going to be a SS into his mid/late 30s. To do so is to lose him.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Well, if he opts-out and the market collapses for him as a SS, then maybe he comes back to Bloom and signs a smaller deal. My main point is there's not much chance of negotiating anything with Bogaerts until then that assumes he's not going to be a SS into his mid/late 30s. To do so is to lose him.

We'll have a lot better idea after the post-2021 FA SS shuffle if there's even a possible landing spot for X as a SS.

 

[bsj]

Is 2nd base just a hard stop?

 

[Bergs]

Is 2nd base just a hard stop?

Prom night!

 

[McBride11]

I voted trade and sign one of the top SS coming into FA. Both things would have to be in quick succession or Sox lose negotiating power. I love X and all he has done, but he doesn't seem cut out defensively for SS and, based upon limited comments, doesn't want to move positions. If we are gonna pay a 8-10 year contract I'd rather have Story / Seager / Correa into their mid 30s than X into his late 30s.

Can always convince X to 3rd and Raffy to 1b. Raffy to DH seems awfully soon at his young age when he can actually field.

Okay so we got Mayer at #9 overall prospect slated for 2025, but prospects flame out all the time. And I'd rather have known SS vs a potential one. If Mayer forces the issue in 3 years, well we cross that bridge then. Trade chits or moving positions.

It would be cool if X went to 3b, Raffy to 1b, and then one of the big SS comes in. Then you deal with Casas and Mayer when they force the issue, until then they are only prospects.

 

[nvalvo]

He has the bat, athleticism, baseball smarts and arm to be an excellent corner outfielder. I think that's the future, and I think it happens here.

Think of Gary Sheffield as a comp. Like Bogaerts, he came up as a SS/3B, but moved at 25 to the outfield and played mostly RF, LF, and DH for the rest of his career. Now, Sheffield was a better hitter than Bogaerts, but Bogaerts has plenty of bat to be a useful player in an OF corner.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Lindor is younger than X, but a worse player and he got a 10 year $341m deal (and has been awful this year). What would be a contract people are comfortable with for X? 6 / $150? 7 / $190? These all seem like bad ideas. All it takes is one team….honestly, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s traded this off-season (depending on how this year ends).

 

[chawson]

Bogaerts has a pretty sizable home/road split throughout his career. In the last four years, he’s + .110 of OPS at Fenway (.955 to .845). Would that affect how other teams value him? Probably not much, but at this point it doesn’t seem to be a fluke.

I do wonder if a better first baseman would improve his and Devers’ OAA (does OAA ding throwing errors?) but even so the effect wouldn’t be huge. I voted to pay him like a left fielder. Give him the JDM contract, with maybe a sixth year, which would mean he’d get 9/$190~ million from his original extension, his number next to Bobby Doerr’s, and an outside shot at the Hall.

 

[scottyno]

Bogaerts has a pretty sizable home/road split throughout his career. In the last four years, he’s + .110 of OPS at Fenway (.955 to .845). Would that affect how other teams value him? Probably not much, but at this point it doesn’t seem to be a fluke.

I do wonder if a better first baseman would improve his and Devers’ OAA (does OAA ding throwing errors?) but even so the effect wouldn’t be huge. I voted to pay him like a left fielder. Give him the JDM contract, with maybe a sixth year, which would mean he’d get 9/$190~ million from his original extension, his number next to Bobby Doerr’s, and an outside shot at the Hall.

I think there's 0 chance he takes anything close to a JDM contract, that's barely an upgrade over his current contract other than tacking on a few years. 5-150 or 6-175 sound way more reasonable to me and he'd almost certainly be worth that.

 

[chawson]

I think there's 0 chance he takes anything close to a JDM contract, that's barely an upgrade over his current contract other than tacking on a few years. 5-150 or 6-175 sound way more reasonable to me and he'd almost certainly be worth that.

The JDM contract + 1 year would be roughly 6/$132. 6/175 is a cut above what I’d call “paying him like a left fielder” these days, especially with a potential salary cap, but it could be more accurate and there’s the Boras factor to consider.

Xander will be entering his age-30 season in 2023. As big contract left fielders go, do we pay him like 28-year-old Justin Upton (6/$133) or Christian Yelich (9/$215)? How about 32-year-old Andrew McCutchen (3/$50)? 30-year-old Marcell Ozuna (4/$65?)

 

[LesterFan]

I'm curious, what makes people think Xander has a good arm? I think his arm is pretty weak and admittedly I can't find any stat or metric to back this up so it's mostly eye test, but to me he doesn't get much on throws, especially on longer throws from the hole or relay throws home, compared to other shortstops around the league. What am I missing?

 

[scottyno]

The JDM contract + 1 year would be roughly 6/$132. 6/175 is a cut above what I’d call “paying him like a left fielder” these days, especially with a potential salary cap, but it could be more accurate and there’s the Boras factor to consider.

Xander will be entering his age-30 season in 2023. As big contract left fielders go, do we pay him like 28-year-old Justin Upton (6/$133) or Christian Yelich (9/$215)? How about 32-year-old Andrew McCutchen (3/$50)? 30-year-old Marcell Ozuna (4/$65?)

He's a much better player than 3 of those 4 guys you mentioned were at the time they signed those deals. He's not Yelich, but he's closer to yelich than he is to the other 3.

 

[johnnywayback]

The JDM contract + 1 year would be roughly 6/$132. 6/175 is a cut above what I’d call “paying him like a left fielder” these days, especially with a potential salary cap, but it could be more accurate and there’s the Boras factor to consider.

Xander will be entering his age-30 season in 2023. As big contract left fielders go, do we pay him like 28-year-old Justin Upton (6/$133) or Christian Yelich (9/$215)? How about 32-year-old Andrew McCutchen (3/$50)? 30-year-old Marcell Ozuna (4/$65?)

I mean, if they signed him to the Upton contract with the understanding that he'd move off SS, I'd be thrilled with that. I agree with @nvalvo that LF is the best long-term bet, and while Hanley Ramirez could tell you it's never a sure thing to make that transition, I would bet on Bogaerts to figure out the glove while hitting more than enough for the position.

The questions are: 1) Would Bogaerts take that deal -- or would he get a bigger offer from a team that believed in him at SS or 3B? 2) Would giving him that deal leave you room to go out and get one of the other big-name SS? After all, even if we successfully move him to a position he's better suited for defensively, someone has to play SS.

 

[cantor44]

I mean, if they signed him to the Upton contract with the understanding that he'd move off SS, I'd be thrilled with that. I agree with @nvalvo that LF is the best long-term bet, and while Hanley Ramirez could tell you it's never a sure thing to make that transition, I would bet on Bogaerts to figure out the glove while hitting more than enough for the position.

The questions are: 1) Would Bogaerts take that deal -- or would he get a bigger offer from a team that believed in him at SS or 3B? 2) Would giving him that deal leave you room to go out and get one of the other big-name SS? After all, even if we successfully move him to a position he's better suited for defensively, someone has to play SS.

I'd even offer his 4/100, and let him know up front he's likely to be moved off SS during the duration of the contract ...And if we wants more years and money than that, you gotta let him go, I think .... as horribly painful as that is.

 

[nvalvo]

I'm curious, what makes people think Xander has a good arm? I think his arm is pretty weak and admittedly I can't find any stat or metric to back this up so it's mostly eye test, but to me he doesn't get much on throws, especially on longer throws from the hole or relay throws home, compared to other shortstops around the league. What am I missing?

My sense is that anyone who can even play SS at all has a good arm among the broader population of MLBers. Even if his arm is only so so as a SS, it would be a great arm for an outfielder.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If he opts out, he’s opting out of 3/60 (potentially 4/80 based on an option that vests with 535 PA’s in 2025). So you have to work off that base when thinking about a new deal. A 4 year deal that makes him a free agent at 33 isn’t likely going to be what he’s looking for- I suspect he will be looking at contract length rather than AAV premium…he will want 6 or 7 years. 7/$175 seems the minimum he’d do IMO.

Couple that with what Devers will be looking for (something like 12/$360 seems likely) and you are suddenly spending close to $60m on two guys. Doable if Casas, Duran, etc end up being studs when their salaries are low but man this starts to get risky pretty fast. Seems like locking up Devers long term has to be the priority this off-season.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If he opts out, he’s opting out of 3/60 (potentially 4/80 based on an option that vests with 535 PA’s in 2025). So you have to work off that base when thinking about a new deal. A 4 year deal that makes him a free agent at 33 isn’t likely going to be what he’s looking for- I suspect he will be looking at contract length rather than AAV premium…he will want 6 or 7 years. 7/$175 seems the minimum he’d do IMO.

Couple that with what Devers will be looking for (something like 12/$360 seems likely) and you are suddenly spending close to $60m on two guys. Doable if Casas, Duran, etc end up being studs when their salaries are low but man this starts to get risky pretty fast. Seems like locking up Devers long term has to be the priority this off-season.

The two of them combined I don't see going over $55M annually. Especially if there is a long term contract extension for Devers this offseason that buys out his final two arg years. While Devers bat is fantastic.... I don't think it's enough that a team would be willing to go $30M per season knowing his defensive reputation may have other GM's seeing him as a DH by age 28. Both he and Xander have issues that will keep them from getting Lindor money IMO on the market.

 

[OCD SS]

I voted for the “other” option. Today. Because this isn’t something we need to worry about until next year. Next year I might (probably would) vote differently, but for now it’s wait and see.
Which does mean that I wouldn’t chase one of the free agents. I’d let X play SS next year, then see where we’re at. Is his D even worse? Is he still hitting? Had he gotten hurt? Has anything changed with any other players that keeping X may impact (Devers, JD, Dalbec/Casas, Mayer, etc…)?
Too many variables now to worry about.

Remember at the beginning of the season how we were worried about whether or not we'd have to extend Vasquez in order to keep him? Good times...

Seriously, there is no reason to worry about this until he actually opts out. He can easily have a down year or suffer an injury that will make it a lot less likely that he'll do so. While I don't think you can start making out line up cards with Mayer's name on them for 2024 or whatever, his presence does make it a lot less likely that Chaim would spend big FA money on a SS this off-season (and that doesn't seem like his style anyway).

MLB is increasingly a young man's game. Prospects don't always work out, but I don't think you're shifting Devers or Casas around to accommodate X. Sign Devers to an extension and don't lock up 1B long term. X starts at SS next year (you know, if there's a season), and then worry about 2023 when you have more data (but realize you're going to be paying for X to decline).

 

[gammoseditor]

Xander’s contract has a full no trade so that option isn’t happening.

Defensive metrics have been debated here and elsewhere for years. There’s no question he is a below average SS. The question is how bad is he. Based on public data he’s still a great player at SS.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Xander’s contract has a full no trade so that option isn’t happening.

Well, it could happen, but it would involve burning bridges so if that's the road they want to go, there's no changing their mind. I imagine most of us remember the impact of the whole A-Rod saga had on the organization's relationship with Nomar, and there's far less reason to rock the boat with Bogaerts right now.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Of the points already made in this thread:
- I also love X, want to figure out a reasonable way to keep him long term
- Willing to consider moving him off SS, but also willing to keep him there until it's Mayer time. Concerned about the ripple effects on Devers and 1B. Don't think we have or want to make this type of decision for another year.
- Would not be willing to sign him to anything like a Lindor contract. He's not worth it overall (most aren't), and we certainly won't want him at SS when he's 35.
- I'd at least offer him an extension this offseason. Tack on 2 years/$60M. Shows that we want him to stay, but it's way under market on years and not something he's likely to accept. Still, you never know. Maybe that plus pushing back the opt-out a year or two? Remember, Tanaka was definitely opting out, if just to extort an extension out of the MFYs. And then he didn't.

 

[StupendousMan]

Xander’s contract has a full no trade so that option isn’t happening.

Defensive metrics have been debated here and elsewhere for years. There’s no question he is a below average SS. The question is how bad is he. Based on public data he’s still a great player at SS.

The third and fifth sentences in your post seem to contradict each other. Can you please explain them in a bit more detail?

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

The third and fifth sentences in your post seem to contradict each other. Can you please explain them in a bit more detail?

I think what he means is he’s a below average defensive shortstop, but, taking offense into account, is still one of the best shortstops in the league.

This is true, and makes me wonder why anyone would want to trade him or let him walk. We could get a great defensive shortstop. They won’t be as good as X. We could keep him at short, and live with his deficiencies, and have a top 3 shortstop in baseball

 

[gammoseditor]

The third and fifth sentences in your post seem to contradict each other. Can you please explain them in a bit more detail?

If you take WAR at face value his offense makes up for his defense and you can leave him there until he regresses more.

 

[Kliq]

I'd add that in the era of three true outcomes and lots of shifting, having a great defensive shortstop does not mean as much as it once did.

 

[patinorange]

Lindor is younger than X, but a worse player and he got a 10 year $341m deal (and has been awful this year). What would be a contract people are comfortable with for X? 6 / $150? 7 / $190? These all seem like bad ideas. All it takes is one team….honestly, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s traded this off-season (depending on how this year ends).

Lindor is the poster boy for bad signings and is probably the starting point for X's contract talks. Unfortunately. His current contract is probably a bargain, so the Sox have that going for them.

 

[grimshaw]

In terms of sign him or let him go, I'd go the latter though think he will be fine through age 32. For all we know, sinkerball pitchers could be all the rage again to combat homeruns and resume innings eating. And who even knows if they ban shifts eventually. It's a dangerous position to lock up.

I'd add that in the era of three true outcomes and lots of shifting, having a great defensive shortstop does not mean as much as it once did.

I agree, though for the Red Sox going from the worst guy to top 3 would make a huge difference and they could could sacrifice a larger amount of offense (and save a ton of money).

I played around on fangraphs and found that from 2010 to 2015, the median amount of total chances by a SS was between 276 and 286 plays in a season. By 2019 it had declined to 220 and will be well under 200 this season. So ya, shortstops aren't touching the ball as much.

The best defensive shortstop by runs saved this season will be under 20. Andrelton Simmons saved 41 runs in 2017 when shifting was just starting to become more prominent.

TL/DR - If he opts out, good luck. If he doesn't, the contract is fine and don't worry about displacing Devers. His bat can still easily outhit the glove and be worth 20 mill to boot.

 

[OCD SS]

Is 2nd base just a hard stop?

This is where I’d hope he can wind up, while finishing his career with the Sox.

I'd add that in the era of three true outcomes and lots of shifting, having a great defensive shortstop does not mean as much as it once did.

… and even less for a 2Bman.

 

[billy ashley]

Xander remains surprisingly fast, he's in the 67th percentile in sprint speed. I do wonder if a move to LF would actually increase his value, where he might be damn near elite out there. The issue with Bogaerts has never been that he's got bad footwork, or poor hands, he's just not the quick twitchy athlete you normally see as a middle infielder.

If he'd be open to working out the OF, I'd explore it. If he remains a 25% better-than-league-average hitter over the life of his contract, and his physical tools allow him to be a plus defensive OF, that's still a very valuable player.