Theo...Hall of Famer?

Erik Hanson's Hook

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I know there has been some talk about this, particularly after his Chicago championship. But what he has done, bringing analytics to the forefront, starting in 2003, is really unprecedented.

First ballot? Or any ballot?

Edit: It was incredible watching this 28 year old knock down the door. Basically schooling all the other general managers on the numbers.
 
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E5 Yaz

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I know there has been some talk about this, particularly after his Chicago championship. But what he has done, bringing analytics to the forefront, starting in 2003, is really unprecedented.

First ballot? Or any ballot?

Edit: It was incredible watching this 28 year old knock down the door. Basically schooling all the other general managers on the numbers.
Theo wrote Moneyball?
 

lexrageorge

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Should be a no-brainer, IMO. Just that the selection process for non-players is completely opaque, so no real idea when it would happen.
 

Kliq

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There are only two modern executives in the Hall of Fame; Pat Gillick (Two World Series with Toronto, One World Series with Phillies, other good teams in Baltimore and Seattle) and John Schuerholz (80s Royals and 90s Braves) so the going rate seems like at a minimum, two World Series with different franchises, which Theo has done. IDK about him as a contributor for analytics, it might put him over the top, but if you were to poll 100 baseball people and asked them "Who was the first baseball executive to really start using analytics and influence other franchises?" I imagine Billy Beane would get a bulk of the answers.

Out of his contemporaries, Brian Sabean and Brian Cashman have more World Series titles and would probably deserve to go in, although they won all of theirs with the same time.
 

E5 Yaz

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IDK about him as a contributor for analytics, it might put him over the top, but if you were to poll 100 baseball people and asked them "Who was the first baseball executive to really start using analytics and influence other franchises?" I imagine Billy Beane would get a bulk of the answers.
Yep, thanks, that's what I was getting at. Too subtle, I guess
 

Erik Hanson's Hook

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BB was the trailbrazer no doubt. But I feel like Theo was one of the first guys to be like "okay, this is what we should be doing".

Sebean, Gillick, and Schuerholz were all good. Top notch, in fact. But I don't think they brought what Theo brought.
 

Sin Duda

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Don't forget his current contributions of speeding up the game. Let's say they implement several of his recommendations and the game goes from 3:11 in 2021 (actual #) to 2:56 in 2027 (made up). That would push him over (if he needs a push) in my mind. ITWT!
 

Ganthem

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BB was the trailbrazer no doubt. But I feel like Theo was one of the first guys to be like "okay, this is what we should be doing".

Sebean, Gillick, and Schuerholz were all good. Top notch, in fact. But I don't think they brought what Theo brought.
I am not sure if it is noteworthy, but I feel he was the first GM to say this moneyball stuff is not just for small town teams. I feel prior to Theo taking over the Red Sox, teams looked at moneyball as something teams like the A's had to do, not something that all teams should take a look at.
 

Whoop-La White

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He is still so young that he has a lot of time to do so much more, if not competitively then in service of the game. I think he already belongs in—if he didn’t spearhead the use of analytics then his success certainly legitimized it, ultimately changing how we talk about the game—but if he ascends to Commissioner and thrives there that would likely cement his chances.
 

snowmanny

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On the one hand my immediate reaction was “yes, of course” and my immediate reaction on seeing Cashman mentioned was “him as well if they win another.” I think they are both innovative and have had great success.

On the other hand it is easier to be innovative and have great success with the biggest payrolls in baseball. Putting just those guys in the HOF (+/- Sabean) is likely to produce a lot of “yeah, but...” commentary from their fellow GMs.

edit- I think the actual reason Theo gets in is that he orchestrated the demise of the two most celebrated World Series droughts in history. (Apologies to White Sox fans).
 

LogansDad

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I work in a AA stadium and get to see some of the stuff they are working on implementing on a daily basis, and I will say this:

He probably deserves to get in now, but if his work with the Commissioner's office manages to get 1) the pitch clock and 2) the shift limitations implemented, then I think he will need to have a special room created for him in Cooperstown.
 

ifmanis5

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No doubt HOFer.
It still blows my mind that it took so long for someone to say, 'hey Bill James' research and point of view is pretty solid, let's go with that and see how it works.'
 

Van Everyman

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If Theo decided to take a ride in Kobe‘s chopper, he would be in today. I have no idea why this is even up for debate.
 

Bergs

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There are only two modern executives in the Hall of Fame; Pat Gillick (Two World Series with Toronto, One World Series with Phillies, other good teams in Baltimore and Seattle) and John Schuerholz (80s Royals and 90s Braves) so the going rate seems like at a minimum, two World Series with different franchises, which Theo has done. IDK about him as a contributor for analytics, it might put him over the top, but if you were to poll 100 baseball people and asked them "Who was the first baseball executive to really start using analytics and influence other franchises?" I imagine Billy Beane would get a bulk of the answers.

Out of his contemporaries, Brian Sabean and Brian Cashman have more World Series titles and would probably deserve to go in, although they won all of theirs with the same time.
It's not just the 3 titles, though. It's WHERE they came. He oversaw the death of two of the most storied runs of failure in Sports history. I think that's gotta matter.
 

OCST

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It's not just the 3 titles, though. It's WHERE they came. He oversaw the death of two of the most storied runs of failure in Sports history. I think that's gotta matter.
This.

No question. First ballot. Was more successful in bringing Beane's work to fruition than Beane was, although to be fair to Beane he was working on a fraction of the budget.

Unfortunately taking that work to its logical extreme has hurt the game IMO, but he's making his penance with the changes....? Dunno about that last bit. Anyway - yes - even if there's one executive every 20 years it's him.
 

InstaFace

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I'd vote for Theo, Beane, Sabean, and Bob Watson, Cashman's predecessor at MFY from 1995 through 1998 and the first black GM to win a WS.

Probably not Cashman, who I view as having largely coasted on the core homegrown HOFers he was gifted and then bought the all-star-du-annee free agent every year, and thus far it's worked once in the last 22 years. Let them put him in the MFY HOF as a lifetime achievement award, but really it's just a longevity achievement award. He takes few real risks, and the results have been "fine" given the resources at his disposal.

If I'm only allowed to vote for one of those 4, I think I squint and say Theo. I think a lot of non Boston / Chicago fans would agree with his resume above the others. But in general, while I want the Hall to be mostly about players and less about guys who (let's be honest) mostly get to their position on old-boy-network cronyism, I think there's room for an executive every 2 years or so. Here are the current counts of inductees:

236 MLB Players
35 Negro League Players
31 Executives / Pioneers (of which 5 were in 2006 for the select committee on the negro leagues)
22 Managers
10 Umpires

That ratio doesn't seem too whack, but here's who's gotten in as an executive / pioneer, other than that 2006 SCNL group, in the last 40 years:

  • 1991 Bill Veeck, owner of the Cleveland Indians, St Louis Browns and Chicago White Sox, and who signed the first black player in the American League
  • 1995 William Hulbert, the 19th century owner of the Chicago White Stockings and basically the founder of the National League
  • 1998 Lee MacPhail, part of a MLB dynasty (his father Larry was also inducted), never an owner, rarely a GM, was president of the AL, but doesn't seem to have done much that was notable other than know everyone and be in baseball for a long time
  • 2008 Bowie Kuhn, commissioner 1969-1984, ended the reserve clause but only under duress and after taking it to the Supreme Court, didn't do anything all that great, but was a big part of baseball's history
  • 2008 Walter O'Malley, Brooklyn/LA Dodgers owner 1950-1979, the guy who moved them to the west coast after Robert Moses screwed him. Squeezed out Branch Rickey. Had a lot of political connections, made a lot of money, won a few World Series.
  • 2008 Barney Dreyfuss, owner of the Pirates from 1900-1932 and creator of the World Series
  • 2011 Pat Gillick, GM of 4 teams for a total of 30 years, won 2x WS with Toronto and then in 2008 with the Phillies
  • 2013 Jacob Ruppert, owner of the Yankees from 1915-1939, establishing them as the premier dynasty in the league
  • 2017 John Schuerholz, GM of KCR 1981-1990 the Braves 1990-2007, President of the Braves 2007-2016. Won 1985 and 1995 WS, had what you could consider a dynasty in Atlanta
  • 2017 Bud Selig, because all commissioners must be hall-of-famers, just by Great Man theory
  • 2020 Marvin Miller, MLBPA director from 1966-1982, won free agency and a bunch of other victories for the players, changed the game. Literally inducted only over his dead body.
  • 2022 Bud Fowler, 19th-century player believed to be the first african-american player in pro baseball, and started a lot of pro ballclubs.
  • 2022 Buck O'Neill, player and manager in the negro leagues and later its spokesperson and advocate that helped bring them to greater public awareness

A majority of them clearly deserving for being a core part of the story of baseball. A few seem a little off the pace, but were baseball lifers in positions of power (MacPhail, O'Malley, Selig), and even of those, the only one I can say that removing them from the hall wouldn't change the story of the sport one bit is MacPhail.

That's a pretty high standard. I think Theo and Sabean are probably in just on trophies won, and Watson on a combination of 1996, the dynasty that followed, and breaking barriers personally. Beane... you'd really have to squint to say that his contributions to the game stack up against some of those inductees (like, it's clear he borrowed a lot of ideas from predecessors like Sandy Alderson and just committed to them more fully), and he can't make up for that with sustained success of the teams he built; there's no wins-per-payroll-dollar trophy. Frankly, I think I'd vote for Alderson over Beane. But their admissions will play out over the course of a decade or two, and we'll have a bit more perspective as that goes.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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The real question is if Dave Dombrowski, who also won two titles with two different organizations, should make it.

(In case it isn’t clear, Theo is an obvious yes.)
 
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bankshot1

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Theo should be a lock, winning with two storied and starving big market teams. And he's still a young guy with worlds to conquer.

I've always felt Cashman. a very good GM, got the glory that was really earned by Watson and Michaels. He never really had to adapt to the financial realities other GMs had to, and had the deep pockets and owner's mandate to sign his and other free agents.
 

Erik Hanson's Hook

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Cashman's an interesting situation. Given a lot of resources, he used them well.

Theo's also interesting. I feel like he was one of the first guys to marry analytics with clubhouse. People skills, if you will.

Edit: And Dombrowski is underrated. One of the first Jamesians.
 

Remagellan

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I thought Theo was a no-doubt HoF when he left Boston. When he brought a World Series title to the Cubs, he only solidified a case that should be obvious from his time in Boston. If he figures out a way to make the game more dynamic in the face of the stultifying impact of all that has been learned from analytics, he'll go down as the greatest executive in the history of the game.
 

djbayko

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There are only two modern executives in the Hall of Fame; Pat Gillick (Two World Series with Toronto, One World Series with Phillies, other good teams in Baltimore and Seattle) and John Schuerholz (80s Royals and 90s Braves) so the going rate seems like at a minimum, two World Series with different franchises, which Theo has done. IDK about him as a contributor for analytics, it might put him over the top, but if you were to poll 100 baseball people and asked them "Who was the first baseball executive to really start using analytics and influence other franchises?" I imagine Billy Beane would get a bulk of the answers.

Out of his contemporaries, Brian Sabean and Brian Cashman have more World Series titles and would probably deserve to go in, although they won all of theirs with the same time.
With all due respect to Cashman, it's not just the fact that Theo did it with 2 teams, it's that they were the Sox and Cubs. He's at the top of the list.
 

cornwalls@6

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I am not sure if it is noteworthy, but I feel he was the first GM to say this moneyball stuff is not just for small town teams. I feel prior to Theo taking over the Red Sox, teams looked at moneyball as something teams like the A's had to do, not something that all teams should take a look at.
I think this is his biggest contribution to the analytics revolution. Showing that approach could also be a foundation for large revenue franchises to build themselves on, with the added advantage of being able to make big, expensive acquisitions in areas of need when the opportunities present themselves. As for the HOF, it probably shouldn't matter as much as it does, but being the GM/top baseball executive who won both of the sports most romantic, holy grail championships makes him a first ballot lock, IMO. And ultimately, I think he definitely does belong in Cooperstown.
 

glennhoffmania

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Was Beane really the first guy to embrace advanced analytics, or was he the first guy to recognize that some stats (such as OBP) were more important than others (such as BA or RBIs)? I'm not saying he wasn't- I'm simply not sure.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Was Beane really the first guy to embrace advanced analytics, or was he the first guy to recognize that some stats (such as OBP) were more important than others (such as BA or RBIs)? I'm not saying he wasn't- I'm simply not sure.
He was definitely not the first to embrace advanced analytics. I mean, you had Dan Duquette taking advice from "stats freak" Mike Gimbel in the mid-90s and getting a lot of mockery in the press for it. To the point he let Gimbel go.

Beane was certainly the most prominent GM to emphasize analytics over old fashioned scouting, and have some success with it. So in that way, he ushered in the era of Theo Epstein and Andrew Friedman being the prototypes for 21st century baseball ops.
 

glennhoffmania

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He was definitely not the first to embrace advanced analytics. I mean, you had Dan Duquette taking advice from "stats freak" Mike Gimbel in the mid-90s and getting a lot of mockery in the press for it. To the point he let Gimbel go.

Beane was certainly the most prominent GM to emphasize analytics over old fashioned scouting, and have some success with it. So in that way, he ushered in the era of Theo Epstein and Andrew Friedman being the prototypes for 21st century baseball ops.
That was my understanding as well. But that isn't meant to take anything away from Beane. He was obviously extremely important to the evolution of player evaluation.
 

lexrageorge

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Bill James probably had more to do with the adoption of statistical analysis in baseball than any specific GM. And statistical analysis had been creeping into the game over a long period of time. Dan Duquette was indeed an early adopter, although the Lewis book does a pretty good job of noting how the Red Sox of the early 2000's were definitely behind the curve when compared to the A's.