Theo’s back????!!!!
- Thread starter SouthernBoSox
- Start date
I have a working theory that not all wins or runs are equal. That might not be the exact right way to say it, but I think it would be worth starting with a hypothesis that teams need certain WAR building blocks, to, well, build on. You cannot simply buy 95 wins. It’s too expensive. Well, I guess the Dodgers are going to give it a go. But the Red Sox won’t.
The key to making the playoffs will continue to be finding runs from cost controlled players. But roster sizes are too small to have only lottery tickets. It could work in any one year. The Diamondbacks gave it a go. But generally speaking my theory is you must pay, or over pay, to get the foundation. Your first 60-70 wins. You need chunks. 3, 4, 5 win players with upside, even if they cost $10 million per win or are projected to have bad years at the backend. Once you have that, that’s where effective management to capitalize on bargains takes over. Relying on the lottery tickets for your foundation requires too much luck.
That’s my theory anyway, and so I support overpaying for floor guys — either in cash per year or over committing to long deals. I don’t have data, but if I had decent research skills I might try to find a way to answer the question.
Theo probably has a few bucks in the bank and equity in something good destroys salary any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Jeff Passan: Theo Epstein is returning to the Boston Red Sox. He'll join Fenway Sports Group as a senior adviser, and while he won't be in charge of personnel decisions, his voice should carry enormous weight as the Red Sox figure out how to get back into contention in the brutal AL East.
I see this as nothing but an absolute positive. Local guy, past history here of success, someone to advise Breslow.
This is obviously a good move, but it doesn’t change anything when it comes to on-field improvements until ownership starts to open the wallet again. Having a sounding board for Breslow that happens to be the greatest baseball executive of our lifetimes is awesome.
Four years ago this month was the Mookie trade. This is unequivocally the best Sox news in the four years since.
“Local guy with past history of success here” might be the most humbling description of Theo Epstein of all time. I
He is a hall of famer. He changed baseball. He’s on the greatest of all time. And now he owns part of the team.
Agreed completely. Hope is good, and you can't have too many smart people who love baseball and have a winning pedigree.
This too. Whatever the reporting structure is, Theo can provide advice and experience that the party planner doesn't have.
Hopefully he can extend the "get in the hole" guy before he gets to arb.
My apologies if I was one those that mocked you. I was skeptical of rumors of Theo being named to Breslow's role, as that would have been a step down for him. Did not envision him being named into this new role.
Only regret I have with this move is that I wish it was made before the Yamamoto bidding began.
It would be the highest of ironies if Theo comes back in the old Lucchino role given his dissatisfaction with Lucchino's meddling led to L'Affaire Gorilla Suit in the first place.
I also like that they have clearly defined roles. It seems to be a lot of the crap that happens with the team is the escalating GM/President Baseball Operations/Jerry Jones-like owner meddling/etc.
No good decisions have ever come out of a committee.
No good decisions have ever come out of a committee.
And a night in the gorilla suit.
This can only be good, and I can’t imagine he’d sell out his good (exalted!) name for some cash grab, he’s got to be close to 9 figures by now.
Let’s hope he knows something we don’t, he sure as F always has before.
My guess (based on nothing) is this was part of the deal from the start and Breslow is thrilled.
Edit: that doesn’t change the short term outlook for this team, but I‘m more optimistic about the longer term than I have been in a while.
Can’t hurt. Wish it was at the beginning of offseason, but if he’s an asset as the anti-Luchinno because he dealt with that and left twice because of it, and told Henry you better get out of the way and spend some frigging money then it’s awesome.
No doubt, but Breslow also wasn’t in charge there. These guys all have egos and Breslow doesn’t want to be undermined.
I’m not losing any sleep over it, just curious. Not that we’ll ever find out.
Cant imagine Theo would want to stand over this shit show of baseball operations unless he knew there was an actual plan. Maybe he just got fed enough money to stand over anything
Mentions the Red Sox last though, almost a footnote. No, just seeing his picture in the opening post, face aged a bit but same old Theo, made my morning. LFG!
If Theo is acting as an advisor for all of FSG's sports holdings, he's not going to be able to usurp Breslow's job. The optimistic take — and hopefully the realistic one as well — is that Theo will be able to represent Breslow's thoughts and needs on the ownership level, and help him argue for the money for free agent X or whatever. Hopefully they can maintain the same positive relationship they apparently had in Chicago, with both of them promoted up the ladder.
I don't remember how much of this was reported when Breslow was hired, but Gammo is tweeting today that Theo was an "important Breslow advocate" for replacing Chaim, and he expects them to be "on the same page without distraction, which will make Henry very happy"
Gammo:
View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1753430093756535063
View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1753431128420094324
View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1753433190834848041
"On the baseball side, Epstein says he’ll act as a sounding board and executive coach, if needed, to the Red Sox baseball operations people. Notably, he hired Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow while at the Cubs. “I’m a full believer in him and what he and his team are going to mean for the Red Sox,” Epstein said of Breslow, who joined the Red Sox in October. “With the other sports, where I have a lot to learn, hopefully my experience not only with teams but with Major League Baseball and with private equity will come in handy, at least as a supportive resource for the people at FSG.”
"At Fenway, Epstein will work on sports initiatives across the business’ holdings, which include Liverpool FC, the Pittsburgh Penguins, RFK Racing, TGL’s Boston Common Golf and a recently acquired stake in the PGA Tour, in addition to the Red Sox."
This is really great news. Everywhere Epstein has gone, success has followed. Let's hope the streak continues.
EDIT: Amplifying/Echoing @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat above, whose post was hidden when I composed the following...]
I'm sure he'll say all the right things, but I hope in his heart of hearts Breslow also thinks this is a good thing.
In a vacuum, Theo coming in over him means Breslow's likely going to want to have Theo's signoff on anything significant, which means asking someone else (even if the GGMOAT) to second-guess you. And the press, inevitably, will try to get Theo to comment on the baseball operations all the time. Again, I'll guess Theo will do the politically correct thing and only comment in the positive... but could be a recipe for trouble.
That said, I'll believe Breslow will be grateful for the GGMOAT sounding board, and he and Theo appear to have an excellent pre-existing relationship.
I'm sure he'll say all the right things, but I hope in his heart of hearts Breslow also thinks this is a good thing.
In a vacuum, Theo coming in over him means Breslow's likely going to want to have Theo's signoff on anything significant, which means asking someone else (even if the GGMOAT) to second-guess you. And the press, inevitably, will try to get Theo to comment on the baseball operations all the time. Again, I'll guess Theo will do the politically correct thing and only comment in the positive... but could be a recipe for trouble.
That said, I'll believe Breslow will be grateful for the GGMOAT sounding board, and he and Theo appear to have an excellent pre-existing relationship.
I don't agree it was the plan from the start of Breslow's tenure. It may have been clear both sides were looking in each other's direction, but if the plan was always to bring him in with this kind role they should have had him onboard before this off-season's biggest decisions were already made. I do agree Craig's likely onboard, it would be interesting to find out who else in the organization was pushing for this and got the deal over the line.
Love this on so many levels
1. Ideally he takes over as the figure head for ownership when it comes to speaking. Not having to hear Kennedy and Werner talk anymore is a huge plus
2. Agreeing with other posters that this can only help baseball ops. As a sounding board for CB and as a go between for baseball ops and Henry aka open your wallet
3. Wondering if this increases the chances of Cora signing an extension (assuming Breslow wants to keep him)
4. Not sure if it’s too late for this to happen but maybe this is the push to get them to sign Montgomery + Soler and pretend to compete for a WC this year
1. Ideally he takes over as the figure head for ownership when it comes to speaking. Not having to hear Kennedy and Werner talk anymore is a huge plus
2. Agreeing with other posters that this can only help baseball ops. As a sounding board for CB and as a go between for baseball ops and Henry aka open your wallet
3. Wondering if this increases the chances of Cora signing an extension (assuming Breslow wants to keep him)
4. Not sure if it’s too late for this to happen but maybe this is the push to get them to sign Montgomery + Soler and pretend to compete for a WC this year
The money line in the Gammons tweetstorm is the open that Theo’s return will “tie” Red Sox baseball operations to FSG:
I think we all knew something was up with Henry and this seems to suggest the golf piece has been the distraction (at least recently?).
This may be more than a little over the top, but for me the feeling is like both John Lennon and George Harrison have come back from the great beyond, looked up Paul and Ringo and now the Beatles are back together.
That is how most private equity works and an amazing, amazing outcome. Typically PEs will grab subject matter experts who will be the pipeline between the asset and the PE. Depending on investment levels, how important it is a lot of times these advisors can be de facto CEOs. This is basically FSG appointing Theo as the ownership role to the Red Sox if this turns out how it smells to me. He will of course have some accountability, but him retaining ownership shares indicates that he will be fairly autonomous.
Though this refers to his as "part-time advisor".
View: https://twitter.com/ABC7Chicago/status/1753448467966386522?s=20
Solely "stonks!" memes. Memes being the dark underbelly of the Sabermetric community.
Kind of a weird series of tweets with suggesting that Henry left them dangling and then ends it with “Henry only cares about wins”.
No matter what, this is an awesome move. As @SouthernBoSox said, I think the biggest component of this is that Theo has cache and sway with JWH. He can move the needle if he pounds the table for more money or to open the purse strings for a free agent.
Love it
I guess that explains why our disk space is exploding. 4500 varieties of weei-talking-points.bmp have been uploaded in the last month alone!
Why don't you go on Twitter? Just curious. You expect everyone else to report back to you, like Pete Abraham or Chad Finn?
Since we're parsing lines from Gammon's
"which with a team that isn't as good as they think"
Is exactly what I've been saying for a heck of a long time. I think Breslow knew it when he took the job (and so does Epstein). There are a lot of really poorly put together pieces at the MLB and minor league level and it's going to take some serious work to fix it.
Epstein (in any role) and Breslow is a good start toward fixing this cluster...
"which with a team that isn't as good as they think"
Is exactly what I've been saying for a heck of a long time. I think Breslow knew it when he took the job (and so does Epstein). There are a lot of really poorly put together pieces at the MLB and minor league level and it's going to take some serious work to fix it.
Epstein (in any role) and Breslow is a good start toward fixing this cluster...