This is the best Red Sox team...ever.

BostonWolverine

New Member
Dec 6, 2017
109
Ann Arbor, MI
The Sox won 108 with a pythag that suggested a merely excellent 103 win team. So while this is the best Sox team by wins, it's the fourth best by W% and the third by pythagorean W%

This prompted a question, that led me to make a spreadsheet: this is the eleventh "luckiest" Red Sox team, as measured by the difference between W% and pythag W%.

Here is the Sox' W% – their pythag W% for franchise history.

(There's a tie for first between the excellent 1946 team and the abjectly terrible 1923 team — pythag W% of .355, our sixth worst result — which is interesting. That merely awful team could have been much worse!)

Code:
2018    0.032
2017    0.001
2016    -0.032
2015    -0.016
2014    -0.007
2013    -0.019
2012    -0.031
2011    -0.022
2010    0.006
2009    0.009
2008    -0.003
2007    -0.031
2006    0.034
2005    0.030
2004    0.009
2003    0.008
2002    -0.041
2001    -0.007
2000    -0.003
1999    0.011
1998    -0.015
1997    -0.016
1996    0.022
1995    0.040
1994    0.024
1993    0.002
1992    0.001
1991    0.007
1990    0.020
1989    -0.012
1988    -0.026
1987    -0.028
1986    0.03
1985    -0.048
1984    0.004
1983    0.012
1982    0.024
1981    0.011
1980    0.025
1979    -0.007
1978    0.020
1977    0.017
1976    -0.025
1975    0.041
1974    -0.005
1973    -0.011
1972    0.033
1971    0.009
1970    -0.002
1969    0.033
1968    0.029
1967    -0.006
1966    -0.006
1965    -0.041
1964    0.009
1963    -0.003
1962    0.006
1961    0.007
1960    -0.004
1959    -0.032
1958    0.009
1957    -0.003
1956    0.028
1955    -0.022
1954    -0.034
1953    0.032
1952    -0.013
1951    0.018
1950    0.00
1949    -0.009
1948    0.015
1947    0.005
1946    0.046
1945    0.015
1944    -0.041
1943    -0.019
1942    0.001
1941    -0.020
1940    0.007
1939    0.038
1938    0.008
1937    0.000
1936    -0.026
1935    0.019
1934    -0.026
1933    -0.041
1932    -0.014
1931    0.019
1930    -0.034
1929    0.004
1928    -0.007
1927    -0.010
1926    -0.025
1925    -0.029
1924    -0.023
1923    0.046
1922    0.009
1921    0.006
1920    0.004
1919    -0.028
1918    -0.005
1917    0.002
1916    0.029
1915    0.038
1914    0.029
1913    0.012
1912    0.022
1911    -0.016
1910    -0.029
1909    0.042
1908    -0.056
1907    -0.022
1906    0.002
1905    0.002
1904    -0.002
1903    0.008
1902    0.016
1901    -0.019
That sums to 0.025. Meaning that this year's over-performance takes us from a very slightly unlucky franchise to a lucky one. It's kind of amazing that after 12 decades its close enough that a single moderately lucky year can flip it one way or the other.
Would mind resorting that using the second column?
 

uk_sox_fan

Member
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Nov 11, 2006
1,273
London, England
So the Sox finished with a Run Differential of +229 which ties them with the 1949 Sox (155 games) for 2nd-best in team history (behind 1912's +255 in 154 games). On the one hand this year's addition used 7 more games than the 49ers to get to this level; on the other hand they scored and allowed 20 fewer runs and so had a higher pythag.
 

JimD

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Nov 29, 2001
8,690
Looking at what happened to the Cubs - losing a 5-game division lead in September to finished tied with Milwaukee, then getting dumped by the Brewers into the wild-card game and losing that to the Rockies to be knocked out of the postseason - just makes me appreciate even more how this Red Sox team never cracked down the stretch. They put their foot on the collective necks of the Yankees with that early August sweep and kept it there, never letting the few disappointments like the sweep by Tampa mushroom into something larger and more dangerous. Just a beautiful overall performance to behold.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Jul 30, 2001
7,187
Looking at what happened to the Cubs - losing a 5-game division lead in September to finished tied with Milwaukee, then getting dumped by the Brewers into the wild-card game and losing that to the Rockies to be knocked out of the postseason - just makes me appreciate even more how this Red Sox team never cracked down the stretch. They put their foot on the collective necks of the Yankees with that early August sweep and kept it there, never letting the few disappointments like the sweep by Tampa mushroom into something larger and more dangerous. Just a beautiful overall performance to behold.
They even went and won the last day of the season to avoid a single 4 game losing streak over the entire season.
 

allmanbro

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Jul 19, 2005
362
Portland, Maine
I know this doesn't mean much, given changes in the schedule and playoff structure, and especially since they are still up against the Yankees. But I thought it was worth noting a milestone: with the win last night, they have 110 wins total between regular season and playoffs, which tops the 1912 team's 109 (105 regular season, 4 world series) for most overall.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
20,851
Maine
I know this doesn't mean much, given changes in the schedule and playoff structure, and especially since they are still up against the Yankees. But I thought it was worth noting a milestone: with the win last night, they have 110 wins total between regular season and playoffs, which tops the 1912 team's 109 (105 regular season, 4 world series) for most overall.
The 2004 team also won 109...98 regular season + 11 post-season.
 

AutomatedTeller

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Apr 30, 2008
133
ma
What a great season this has been so far. How many teams defeat multiple 100 win teams in the postseason? The '04 Sox did.

I don't know if I want to see the Sox hit against Kershaw or if I want the comparisons between the Sox OF and the Brewers.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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Dec 22, 2002
21,588
What a great season this has been so far. How many teams defeat multiple 100 win teams in the postseason? The '04 Sox did.

I don't know if I want to see the Sox hit against Kershaw or if I want the comparisons between the Sox OF and the Brewers.
And countless Travis Shaw stories.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
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Just curious, when did stacking regular season games plus post season games to get a number of total wins become a thing? Have I just been missing people doing this, or is it a recent thing?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,616
- 108 regular season wins that would have been probably like 113+ if they had kept their foot on the gas.

- 7-2 in the AL playoffs agains teams that both won 100 or more games.

- 5-0 on the road in the AL playoffs.

- Outscored their opponents 56-35 over those 9 games (average score: 6.2 to 3.9).

- Much-maligned bullpen outperformed both Houston and NY's bullpens.

Basically, the Sox took both Houston and NY out to the woodshed and beat their respective asses black and blue.

And I'm already completely sick of the "Houston was so banged up" line. Correa's back wasn't 100%. Altuve's knee was clearly hurting. Other than that, what injuries did they have? Meanwhile, Boston dealt with knee injuries to Nunez and Wright (keeping Wright out of the playoffs), and freaking Chris Sale spent time in the HOSPITAL and had to miss a start because of it. Oh and their starting second baseman has been out all season long.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,616
I'd like to reflect for a moment on how good the Sox' bench has been. Let's call the bench Vazquez, Holt, Swihart, Moreland, and Devers. Because Nunez, Kinsler, and Pearce started most of the playoffs so far.

ALDS
Holt: 4-6, 1 hr, 5 rbi
Devers: 2-7, 1 rbi
Moreland: 1-3
Swihart: 0-1
Vazquez: 3-9, 1 hr, 2 rbi
TOT: 10-26, 2 hr, 8 rbi, .385 avg

ALCS
Holt: 1-9
Devers: 5-13, 1 hr, 6 rbi
Moreland: 3-6, 1 2b, 2 rbi
Swihart: DNP
Vazquez: 2-13, 1 2b
TOT: 11-47, 1 hr, 8 rbi, .234 avg

Totals: 21-73 (.288), 3 hr, 16 rbi in just 9 games

It is so nice to have this kind of quality off the bench. And if Moreland and Holt and Devers start, I love having Kinsler and Nunez and Pearce available. Cora really has a nice system going with Moreland pinch-hitting for the catcher late, and then being able to put in another quality defensive catcher in the mix. I feel very comfortable with Holt up in big spots. Devers has a knack. In 36 postseason plate appearances so far, he has 3 homers, 12 rbi, and a slash line of .355/.417/.645/1.062.

This bench is versatile and skilled and they've been killing it all postseason.
 

AutomatedTeller

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Apr 30, 2008
133
ma
I love this Sox team. '04 is my favorite Sox team, but I think this team is better, mainly because it's more balanced. There are no weaknesses on this team, except maybe catcher, where the '04 had a very thin rotation.
 

Earthbound64

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Just curious, when did stacking regular season games plus post season games to get a number of total wins become a thing? Have I just been missing people doing this, or is it a recent thing?
I feel like it's a thing that happened after 1998 - and especially after 2001 - for the Yankees to be able to say that their 1998 team "had the most wins."
 

canyoubelieveit

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Apr 8, 2006
7,894
I love this Sox team. '04 is my favorite Sox team, but I think this team is better, mainly because it's more balanced. There are no weaknesses on this team, except maybe catcher, where the '04 had a very thin rotation.
The '04 team had a very thin rotation? Pedro and Schilling were #1 and #2, Wakefield a solid #3, Arroyo a solid #4, and even though I have a falsely inflated memory of Derek Lowe's season due to his postseason heroics, he was fine for a #5. And that rotation was one of the most durable in team history...all 5 of them pretty much showed up every 5th game all season.

edit: yep, I didn't read your post carefully enough...thought you were talking about the pitching rotation. Sorry about that.
 
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etakbear

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May 30, 2010
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The '04 team had a very thin rotation? Pedro and Schilling were #1 and #2, Wakefield a solid #3, Arroyo a solid #4, and even though I have a falsely inflated memory of Derek Lowe's season due to his postseason heroics, he was fine for a #5. And that rotation was one of the most durable in team history...all 5 of them pretty much showed up every 5th game all season.
Pretty sure they were talking about the catchers .Tek, who was solid and Mirabelli.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Nov 11, 2006
1,273
London, England
So with their 6th straight post-season win the Sox Elo (the one that comes from 538's 'Complete history of MLB' not their season-specific one) has now reached 1602.00, the highest ever in franchise history. Here's how it stacks up among the greatest post-WWII teams:

Code:
1     1998    NYY    1618.38
2     1970    BAL    1613.61
3     1954    CLE    1609.83
4     2001    OAK    1609.51
5     2017    CLE    1606.70
6     2018    HOU    1604.11
7     2001    SEA    1603.56
8     1971    BAL    1603.54
9     1953    NYY    1602.98
10    1995    CLE    1602.81
11    1954    NYY    1602.72
12    2018    BOS    1602.00
13    2009    NYY    1601.03
14    1975    CIN    1600.90
15    1976    CIN    1600.07
Notice the team's current Elo is still below Houston's peak (after G1 of the ALCS) of 1604.11 and Cleveland's peak last year of 1606.70 after taking a 2-0 lead over NY in the ALDS. Houston finished 2018 at 1597.04.

Boston cracked the 1600-barrier for the 1st time in franchise history on the 18th of August as they ran their record to 88-36 (.710) before losing 6 of their next 8 games. After Tuesday's Game 1 win they finally cracked it again and established a new high last night.

The below is a chart of the 538 Elo over the final 10 games of the regular season and the 11 games so far of the playoffs. Eyeballing it, it would seem that a 4-game sweep would move the Sox into 5th place in the Post-war league table, just behind the 2001 A's.
Elo.png
 
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AB in DC

OG Football Writing
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Jul 10, 2002
13,754
Springfield, VA
How would that chart look if you used end-of-season ELOs instead of peak? Seems odd to see 2018 Houston and 2017 Cleveland without factoring in their last few losses.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
54,016
The 2018 Red Sox currently have 117 wins (4th most ever) and could get to 119.

1998 Yankees-125
2001 Mariners-120
1906 Cubs -118
2018 Red Sox-117*
 

dynomite

Member
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The 2018 Red Sox currently have 117 wins (4th most ever) and could get to 119.

1998 Yankees-125
2001 Mariners-120
1906 Cubs -118
2018 Red Sox-117*
Incredible to think we’ve celebrated Dirty Water 117 times this year. We are so lucky.

Still, while I share the urge to use baseball’s wonderful history and statistics to compare past and present teams, even for a Red Sox homer like me this one doesn’t feel 100% fair.

Even putting aside the advent of the 162 game season in 1961, these Red Sox of course had a whole additional playoff series to buoy their win total over fellow 108-win teams like the ‘75 Reds and ‘86 Mets.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,045
Pittsburgh, PA
that hasn't stopped every yankee fan ever from talking about "125 wins".

I think the 1906 Cubs going 116-36 in 154 games probably makes them the best team ever, but they did also go 2-4 in their (cross-town) world series.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Dec 28, 2000
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The 2018 Red Sox currently have 117 wins (4th most ever) and could get to 119.

1998 Yankees-125
2001 Mariners-120
1906 Cubs -118
2018 Red Sox-117*
Man... if only the Sox had played in the Wild Card game they could've caught the Mariners...
 

drbretto

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Apr 10, 2009
12,122
Concord, NH
We're doing it wrong. If we're just going to combine total wins in a season, let's not forget about the Sox' league leading 22-9 spring training record. Cause why not at this point? :)

So, let's adjust those numbers, shall we?

1998 Yankees - 125 + 15 = 140 Wins
2001 Mariners - 120 + 13 = 133 Wins
2018 Boston Red Sox - 117 + 22 = 139 Wins*

With 2 to go. I'll let you do the math :)
 

Ramon AC

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Apr 19, 2002
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What?
Then there was that cancelled game in Baltimore where Mookie and JD home runs were struck from the record...surely we would have won that one, bringing the 2018 total to 140.
 

chrisfont9

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I was listening to a podcast (Fangraphs' Effectively Wild) where the subject came up about what lessons will be taken from a Sox or Dodgers' win. Since the former is mathematically more likely and incalculably more interesting, I'll toss out that the Sox' model blows a hole in both the prospect hoarding strategy and the mega-bullpen thing that's been in vogue for a few years. Dombrowski's rep is as the guy who trades the prospects for established players, and signs a few free agents along the way. But isn't the team's strategy more along the lines of going all in on a particular window, which opened with the Bogaerts/Betts/Bradley/Vazquez/Swihart/Edro collection? Plus Benny shortly thereafter. It seems pretty clear that they made trades for guys who were ready in that window at positions the young studs didn't fill, and traded away guys from different windows (Kopech, Espinoza) or from redundant positions (Margot, Moncada). It's all pretty straightforward but it's a message that you shouldn't horde prospects when you could patch up a weakness and win now -- something the Yankees failed to do with their crappy rotation this season.

And the bullpen thing, I mean, it's nice to have a lot of those guys but if you have a strong rotation and can get 2-3 relievers hot in the postseason, you're more or less set. The extreme bullpenning thing is a creative way to patch over your weak rotation, but you're still way better off strengthening your rotation.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what people end up trying to derive as "lessons" from this season.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Aug 6, 2010
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Incredible to think we’ve celebrated Dirty Water 117 times this year. We are so lucky.

Still, while I share the urge to use baseball’s wonderful history and statistics to compare past and present teams, even for a Red Sox homer like me this one doesn’t feel 100% fair.

Even putting aside the advent of the 162 game season in 1961, these Red Sox of course had a whole additional playoff series to buoy their win total over fellow 108-win teams like the ‘75 Reds and ‘86 Mets.
This team also didn't try to win, like, at all, for majority of September.
 

dynomite

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This team also didn't try to win, like, at all, for majority of September.
Sure, but did those other teams? Take the ‘75 Reds — they won the NL West by 20 games and finished 15.5 games better than the NL East champion Pirates. A quick glance at the game logs shows that Bench only played 4 regular season games after September 12th.

Again, all of this is in the context of thinking the 2018 Red Sox are one of the best teams to ever take the field. I adore them. I just don’t think counting overall wins is necessarily the best way to make the point, that’s all.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
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Feb 4, 2012
38,480
This team also didn't try to win, like, at all, for majority of September.
But they still did win at at .577 clip in September. So while they weren't trying, they still won 15 games. And it was hard competition (Astros and lots of Yankees). I think it is fair that if they were pedal to the metal they could have grabbed 2-3 more wins. 110 would have looked nice.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Aug 6, 2010
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But they still did win at at .577 clip in September. So while they weren't trying, they still won 15 games. And it was hard competition (Astros and lots of Yankees). I think it is fair that if they were pedal to the metal they could have grabbed 2-3 more wins. 110 would have looked nice.
2-3? Come on. They weren't trying at all.

I think they could've gotten to 115 with the pedal on the metal, but it was pointless. The division was locked up and getting guys healthy (especially Sale) was far more important.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
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Feb 4, 2012
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2-3? Come on. They weren't trying at all.

I think they could've gotten to 115 with the pedal on the metal, but it was pointless. The division was locked up and getting guys healthy (especially Sale) was far more important.
With an absent Sale, getting their win percentage up to their season average of .667 would have been 2 more wins.

They went 15-11. I think 17-9 is a fair expectation for them 'trying'.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Aug 6, 2010
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With an absent Sale, getting their win percentage up to their season average of .667 would have been 2 more wins.

They went 15-11. I think 17-9 is a fair expectation for them 'trying'.
You took what you said and used your own "fair estimate" to back it up. Great work.

Not to mention that "season average" includes the month they weren't trying. Math harder.
 

DGreenwood

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Feb 2, 2003
2,463
Seattle
You took what you said and used your own "fair estimate" to back it up. Great work.

Not to mention that "season average" includes the month they weren't trying. Math harder.
22-4 is what they would have had to do in September to get to 115 wins. That's winning at an .846 clip. That seems like an unreasonable expectation, even with the pedal to the metal. They didn't have a month like that all season.
 
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Earthbound64

Member
SoSH Member
We're doing it wrong. If we're just going to combine total wins in a season, let's not forget about the Sox' league leading 22-9 spring training record. Cause why not at this point? :)

So, let's adjust those numbers, shall we?

1998 Yankees - 125 + 15 = 140 Wins
2001 Mariners - 120 + 13 = 133 Wins
2018 Boston Red Sox - 117 + 22 = 139 Wins*

With 2 to go. I'll let you do the math :)
How do split-squad games factor into that?