I was a little worried that three days on the bench might have screwed Dalbec up... Going into his last at bat, those fears seemed well founded, but then he came through with a ninth inning homer that could have been a big one.
Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.
- Thread starter nvalvo
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Also need to point out that that HR was against Chapman.... a power-pitcher. The narrative right now is that he should sit against power pitchers, but what's his sample size against them? And what's his post July 31st sample against them? He clearly needs to be in the game right now and it doesn't matter who he's facing. Old narrative was that he could only hit lefties, but since given more opportunities against righties he's definitely improved post trade deadline.
I know it was junk time... but not really. That put the game back within reach.
to be clear, it’s *righty* power pitchers they want to protect him from.
The most positive sign from Bobby yesterday was a net negative by result: the ball judge took back. I know Cortes is a lefty and not high velocity, but bobby letting a ball get deep and hitting it that hard the other way is a beautiful thing. That's what we saw a ton of at the end of 2020. As he's been saying, he's getting his foot down sooner and every pitch seems to slow down for him. But his power plays to all fields. Loved seeing it go that way, even if he got everything but the home run.
I'm playing him against everyone at this point. I also think he should probably bat higher sometimes, swapped with JD.
I'm playing him against everyone at this point. I also think he should probably bat higher sometimes, swapped with JD.
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So … what’s up with Dalbec’s alligator’s arms? He let two catchable pop ups drop on the weekend. The one Sunday night was awful. He still had a yard to go before the railing and completely shied away. Let’s hope they never move him to the outfield - he’ll never go past the warning track.
He's still hitting well but his K rate has been climbing back up after a really good August. He has 7bb/27k in his last 78 PA. Slashing .271/.346/.629 with 12 xbh and 6 HR.
He was on a great 18 game, 56 PA stretch right before that where he had 7bb/9k.
The 7bb/27k in 78 PA is still improvement over the rest of the year, especially the BB.
First 90 games: 308 PA, 14bb/118k, 26 xbh, 11 HR. 04.5% BB%, 38.3% K rate, 1xbh/11.1 AB. 1 HR/26.3 AB. 1bb/22.0 PA. .215/.260/.391, .317 BAbip.
Last 39 games: 134 PA, 14bb/036k, 24 xbh, 13 HR. 10.4% BB%, 26.7% K rate, 1xbh/04.9 AB. 1 HR/9.00 AB. 1bb/08.4 PA. .316/.403/.761, .353 BAbip.
Even if the K rate climbs back up to 33-35%, if the BB% stays around 8%, he'll be fine. In the last 3rd of his season, he's walking more than twice as much while hitting for more than twice as much power. All while striking out less, even if it's climbing back up lately.
He was on a great 18 game, 56 PA stretch right before that where he had 7bb/9k.
The 7bb/27k in 78 PA is still improvement over the rest of the year, especially the BB.
First 90 games: 308 PA, 14bb/118k, 26 xbh, 11 HR. 04.5% BB%, 38.3% K rate, 1xbh/11.1 AB. 1 HR/26.3 AB. 1bb/22.0 PA. .215/.260/.391, .317 BAbip.
Last 39 games: 134 PA, 14bb/036k, 24 xbh, 13 HR. 10.4% BB%, 26.7% K rate, 1xbh/04.9 AB. 1 HR/9.00 AB. 1bb/08.4 PA. .316/.403/.761, .353 BAbip.
Even if the K rate climbs back up to 33-35%, if the BB% stays around 8%, he'll be fine. In the last 3rd of his season, he's walking more than twice as much while hitting for more than twice as much power. All while striking out less, even if it's climbing back up lately.
I'm very glad Schwarber helped.
However, I would have loved it more if the RS hitting coach had been able to do this. Who was Franchy's Schwarber?
I totally agree. The fact that it took Schwarber to do this kind of tutoring is an indictment of the Red Sox coaching staff, Cora included.
Or perhaps all it took was a fresh set of eyes or a new perspective. Not that much different than Pedroia diagnosing a glitch in David Price's wind-up a few years ago, or Adrian Gonzalez helping to "fix" David Ortiz after he arrived in 2011. JD Martinez has been credited by multiple teammates for helping them figure something out, like Verdugo a couple months ago or Bogaerts last year or Mookie in 2018. Players talk to each other and seek/give advice to each other all the time. Doesn't mean the coaching staff are incompetent or useless.
Among the pleasant surprises in that article, Kyle Hart -- he of the 15.55 ERA in 2020 -- managed to make a positive contribution to the team in an unexpected way. I'm all for it.
Considering that the team is 4th in the AL in runs and OBP, 2nd in SLG, and 3rd in OPS, maybe its an indictment of Dalbec, who simply refused to listen to coaches that were trying to coach him and instead threatened to beat them over the head with his bat. (no that last part didn't actualy happen, i'm just making it up to fit my preferred narrative).
Oh for heaven's sakes, how dare you suggest that the constant whinging about the manager and coaching staff is somehow wrong
I tend to think things like this are fluff in general. I'm a lot of fun at parties. Unfortunately I can't read the article. Hitters and pitchers are always tinkering and when something works, that's the reason. Until it doesn't work anymore. Sometimes it is legit though. Usually it happens at the minor league level and involves a completely revamped swing and/or approach where you can't help but notice it if you had any familiarity with the player. From the quotes, it sounded more mental and like no actual flaw was pointed out. What is simplifying his approach mean? What are the areas Kyle was categorizing as high focus and little focus? Maybe the article actually went into this.
If it isn't fluff, someone should be offering Dustin Pedroia a lot of money because it seemed like he was constantly pointing things out to hitters and pitchers alike. Kyle should also be giving the same advice to everyone on the team.
The numbers definitely back up a change in approach, even if the Ks are creeping upwards again. The walk rate remains. Though over his last 18 PA he has 0bb/9k. SSS, worth keeping an eye on.
I want to be a true believer. He's up to a .244/.313/.514 career line in 534 PA/486 AB with 38bb/193k. 61 xbh, 32 HR. 115 OPS+. That's way better than I ever envisioned. I could see an argument saying he's actually better than his career line if there was a real change in his approach. The lines are different enough to suggest a fall from his current production over the last ~150 PA wouldn't be close to the production he put up in his first ~300 of the year.
I just want the record to reflect that I never believed in Red Sox Legend Bobby Dalbec and am ready to admit I'm wrong - like usual.
Despite the development of Casas and given the JD opt out wouldn't it still make a lot of sense to find 400-500 AB's for Dalbec somehow next year? Maybe in lieu of signing Schwarber back?
if JD opts out, I don't see why there isn't room for Dalbec and Schwarber, depending on the type of deal he's looking for. Casas might be ready some time in 2022, but I doubt it's at the beginning of the season.
If any teams do value Bobby Dalbec as a 3b, they should look to trade him. Outside of that, he has more value to the Red Sox. When Casas is ready, trading Dalbec or Schwarber shouldn't be that hard. Maybe by then, they would have established a new baseline and would get more in return.
I think Schwarber is closer to 2021 version than career version, but if someone differs, maybe they pass all together even if there is room.
Sure. But it's not like Dalbec didn't have success in 2020, and wasn't epically bad April, May, June, and July of 2021. And it sounds like Schwarber had him do something other than the hitting coaches were doing. So, that's far beyond JD helping someone tweak their swing to work out of a minor slump. This from the quoted article above:
Personally, if I'd hired a couple of guys to be hitting coaches, I'm going to ask them why/how a 90 minute session, that implicitly says Dalbec was focusing on the wrong things, turns a negative WAR player into a positive one.
What's 1 WAR worth again?
Because Dalbec might be a selfish and uncoachable prick who thought he knew it all after his 2020 cup of coffee?
That's certainly one possibility.
But without fearing the answer, I'd certainly ask. Wouldn't you?
Or Dalbec started hitting around the same time and attributed his recent success to Schwarber even if it isn't.
Both X and JDM approached Dalbec to help him get out of his slump but he attacked them both with a knife.
BTW, Hyers has been the hitting coach from 2018 till now. Apart from Devers (absent 2020) and Arroyo (sorta) we haven't had any under age 27 hitters trending upward or holding water. Granted there's a lot of dreck in there. Just an odd factoid.
Other than the MVP caliber shortstop who was 25 in 2018 the MVP outfielder who was 25 in 2018 and Verdugo who came to the Sox at 24 and has been better than he was with LA?
Its been pointed out several times here that a lot of Dalbec's new found success came against some pretty crappy pitchers. I wonder how much of his improvement was simply do to facing the kind of pitchers he'd succeeded against in the minors, succeeding against them again and then getting some confidence to do better against actual major leaguers as well. That Schwarber arrived at the same time might have contributed as well, but maybe it was just a coincidence.
To me the bigger indictment on the RS staff and the hitting coach in particular is not that it took Schwarber to fix Bobby but rather that it took Schwarber to get these guys to stop hacking at every pitch that comes out of a pitchers hand. Schwarber gets here has a meeting with the players, discusses hitting strategy and the walk % immediately goes up and the K% goes down. Schwarber known for his patience imparts it upon his teammates. Why couldn’t the hitting coach have done this three months earlier. Very glaring problem. Wasn’t like Schwarber went deep into the lab and uncovered a hidden secret
If he meant post 2018, he's not entirely wrong. One could argue Verdugo got worse. Of course there are only 3 players who would really qualify and he's disqualifying one of them. At least in 2021. Xander held water in 2019 too. Betts did not. Benny didn't.
-Mookie trended down from 18 to 19 then left.
-Xander improved marginally from 18 to 19, then trended downward.
-Granted 2020 was short, but Verdugo trended downward from 2020 to 2021.
It's a weird factoid that I don't particularly feel indicates anything.
Did you think an idle comment on not having young hitters improve from 18-21 was attacking Cora or something? Which reminds me I don't know anything about you. Is there some personal issue I should be aware of? Feel free to PM me.
Get thee to a game thread.
Xander is a massively better hitter from 2018- than any year in his career before that, you can just admit you completely spaced on him and own it rather than trying to argue that.
Betts had an outlier year in 2018 yes, but he followed it up in 2019 with his 2nd best offensive year and then continued on to LA where he continued to be a better hitter than before 2018.
Who knows how much of that if anything is on the coaching staff, but your idle comment was completely wrong so yes it seems pretty relevant to point out that you ignored the best and maybe 2nd best young position player the Sox have had in the last 10-15 years.
Sometimes - someone can tell you something 99 times, and then someone else says the same thing a bit different and then it just “clcks”.
You're amazing. But how did you not point out that all of the players on the squad hit better in 2018 than they did in 1995!
Pretending I said something I didn't say, so you can take it to task, is basically your ongoing pattern of interaction with me. Because I don't think Alex Cora is all that great.
And that's a truly odd way to conduct yourself, if you stop to think about it for a moment.
Back on Ignore, Scotty.
And that's a truly odd way to conduct yourself, if you stop to think about it for a moment.
Back on Ignore, Scotty.
Maybe, of course I can't know for sure. We also know the Red Sox are 19th in BB. Here are the top 8 teams in BB: NYY, LAD, SF, MIL, SD, CWS, TB, HOU. Not there's any pattern there or anything. Sox are predictably aggressive and are at the bottom (or top depending on how you look at it) at swinging at balls outside the zone. They routinely fail to approach at bats situationally. So ... at some point SOMETHING'S gotta reflect the coaching, no? Imagine how much better they'd be, if they all did what Dalbec has done via Schwarber's influence. Rather than 4th in runs, maybe they'd be first!
I think they're going to leave Casas in Worcester long enough to set the WooSox/PawSox single season home run record (36). So he should be in Boston by 4th of July weekend.
I wonder if there's a bit of news-y filter built into what we hear about. Hitting coach works with hitter is Dog Bites Man — not a story. But veteran slugger works with young slugger is a heartwarming story of setting aside self-interested considerations about playing time to help the team. So that gets written up.
It has already been documented — e.g. on the @RedSoxStats twitter account that member SoxScout runs — that Dalbec had retooled his approach in May to stop hitting so many "empty" fly balls to right, and instead pulling the ball more in the air. So with that context in hand, it is quite clear that Dalbec was already working on his approach before Schwarber's arrival, and so perhaps Schwarber's contribution here was in helping Dalbec figure out how iron out the nuances of what Hyers and the coaching staff was already working on with him.
Hyers is here because he's in the Francona coaching family tree and because he was with the Dodgers when they were using swing tweaks to turn washed up randos into All Stars. His One Weird Trick may be the on-plane swing path stuff that helped Justin Turner and Chris Taylor and — hmm... — Kiké Hernandez hit for more power. If that's right, then I wouldn't be shocked if he's not the ideal messenger for a guy like Dalbec, for whom getting the ball in the air isn't the issue.
It seems like if there's a positive Hyers effect, it mostly happened when he showed up in 2018, when Bogaerts, Betts, Benintendi, and Lin all made big strides. But even then, Vazquez cratered and Devers regressed more mildly. And if anything, the record has been more mixed since then. Do we give Hyers credit for Vazquez' recovery? What about Devers' weird trajectory? Benintendi is clearly the worst count in any indictment of Hyers, but even now that he is far from that malign influence he still only has a 101 OPS+. Betts, similiarly, has been closer to his 2019 performance than to his 2018 career year in his time in LA.
I guess I'm left wondering what to compare this to. Obviously, if Pittsburgh turns Chavis into a middle of the order bat, that's a huge black eye, but I'd want to see a few more PAs first.
How does the Hyers track record compare to other hitting coaches? What kind of effect size should we be expecting?
If I had to characterize what is going on, I would hypothesize that this is mostly about factors larger than any individual coach. We brought Hyers here to tap into the swing plane trend, and he delivered some real results for us, especially with Bogaerts' and Betts' power numbers. We won a title. Nice. But pitchers have adjusted, and so the returns from that approach have diminished. And now we get to see if Hyers (or the next guy we hire) can figure out what's next.
I dunno — what do you all see?
It has already been documented — e.g. on the @RedSoxStats twitter account that member SoxScout runs — that Dalbec had retooled his approach in May to stop hitting so many "empty" fly balls to right, and instead pulling the ball more in the air. So with that context in hand, it is quite clear that Dalbec was already working on his approach before Schwarber's arrival, and so perhaps Schwarber's contribution here was in helping Dalbec figure out how iron out the nuances of what Hyers and the coaching staff was already working on with him.
Hyers is here because he's in the Francona coaching family tree and because he was with the Dodgers when they were using swing tweaks to turn washed up randos into All Stars. His One Weird Trick may be the on-plane swing path stuff that helped Justin Turner and Chris Taylor and — hmm... — Kiké Hernandez hit for more power. If that's right, then I wouldn't be shocked if he's not the ideal messenger for a guy like Dalbec, for whom getting the ball in the air isn't the issue.
This is indeed an interesting odd factoid that warrants some more inquiry. Here are our hitters who were under 27 at any point during Hyers' tenure, and their OPS+ trajectories in seasons in which they got >50 PA for the Sox. I include 2017 for a pre-Hyers baseline.
It seems like if there's a positive Hyers effect, it mostly happened when he showed up in 2018, when Bogaerts, Betts, Benintendi, and Lin all made big strides. But even then, Vazquez cratered and Devers regressed more mildly. And if anything, the record has been more mixed since then. Do we give Hyers credit for Vazquez' recovery? What about Devers' weird trajectory? Benintendi is clearly the worst count in any indictment of Hyers, but even now that he is far from that malign influence he still only has a 101 OPS+. Betts, similiarly, has been closer to his 2019 performance than to his 2018 career year in his time in LA.
I guess I'm left wondering what to compare this to. Obviously, if Pittsburgh turns Chavis into a middle of the order bat, that's a huge black eye, but I'd want to see a few more PAs first.
How does the Hyers track record compare to other hitting coaches? What kind of effect size should we be expecting?
If I had to characterize what is going on, I would hypothesize that this is mostly about factors larger than any individual coach. We brought Hyers here to tap into the swing plane trend, and he delivered some real results for us, especially with Bogaerts' and Betts' power numbers. We won a title. Nice. But pitchers have adjusted, and so the returns from that approach have diminished. And now we get to see if Hyers (or the next guy we hire) can figure out what's next.
I dunno — what do you all see?
Good players having somewhat consistent performances outside one outlier season from Betts and averagish players being less consistent and bouncing around a little more from year to year. Also, that it's hard to take much from 2020. A bad or hot start can have a pretty huge impact on a 200-250 PA sample size. Look no further than Bobby Dalbec in 2021 and the impact his last 2 months have had on his season. His season was a complete disaster until August 1st. You could look at his 2020 season too. It was 92 PA. Pitchers never really got the chance to adjust and he never got the chance to struggle.
Also fringey prospects who were never expected to be regulars so you'd expect them to get worse with any real exposure to MLB pitching and sample sizes so small to be all but meaningless.
The only ones you can really argue got worse were Benny and Vaz. Vaz was good for less than 1.5 seasons and pretty terrible outside of that. He's also 31 so him declining now isn't exactly a shock. He also wasn't under the age of 27 at any time during the 2018 season so he actually doesn't count anyway. If Verdugo doesn't rebound in 2022, he may count.
I don't actually have a horse in this race. I was just curious to see if there were any patterns, and I don't really see any either.
I'm honestly pretty skeptical about the idea that any given coach has much Value over Replacement Coach. If we ditched Hyers and brought in — I dunno — Eric Hinske, I doubt too much would change.
I don't have a horse either and that was my long winded way of saying I didn't really see any patterns or anything you wouldn't expect to see. I agree a hitting coach doesn't make much of a difference . I'm not sure why you didn't use Chavis full season to date and only his 22 PA in Pittsburg though. In 158 PA in 2020, he has a .636 OPS and a 67 OPS+. In 104 PA in 2021, he has a .636 OPS and a 66 OPS+.
Eh, just because that's the post-Hyers sample. It is a pretty dumb way to do it statistically, I totally agree, but I thought people here might find it interesting to know what's up with Chavis.
It's kind of fun that he went 4/5 against STL in one of the last games they lost before their recent tear.
Was just talking 2023 with a buddy.
If Bobby Dalbec has a strong 2022...thinking on par with his 2nd half of 2021....any scenario where he gets the first crack at filling the DH role if the Sox don't re-sign JD (and, of course, assuming Casas is ready to come up).
Thinking is that it would free up a lot of $ to extend Devers and Bogaerts.
If Bobby Dalbec has a strong 2022...thinking on par with his 2nd half of 2021....any scenario where he gets the first crack at filling the DH role if the Sox don't re-sign JD (and, of course, assuming Casas is ready to come up).
Thinking is that it would free up a lot of $ to extend Devers and Bogaerts.
It would make him the youngest full-time DH (in age and arb years) besides Yordan Alvarez, who has chronic knee issues, and even he was been pushed into outfield duty last year. Khris Davis didn’t do it until his first arb year (age 29).
Depends how strong his 2022 is at the plate. I think if Dalbec’s somehow in the range of a .400 wOBA bat (like Castellanos or vintage JDM or Nelson Cruz) like he was in Aug-Sep of last year, then sure. If he’s more like a .340-.350 wOBA bat, aka a little better than last year overall, I’d suspect another team would want to give him a shot at improving at 1B while he’s still cheap, and might value that more than we would value tying up the DH role.
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And yet that wasn't enough to earn him regular playing time in the post season.
That team had JD at DH. His scenario for 2023 has no JD.
Not to mention hitting like the 2nd half of 2021 for 1.5 seasons is a pretty decent sample.
I don't see him hitting like that he did in the 2nd half for a full season though so it doesn't matter.
He started the first two games of that post-season. The second game against a lefty starter (McClanahan). He went 0-for-8.
Then JD Martinez came back and Cora chose Schwarber over Dalbec. Didn't hurt that they only faced one more lefty after that (Valdez). Didn't help that Schwarber didn't do a ton at the plate in the ALCS. Kinda felt like starting Gomes over Nava at that point.
I'm still bearish on Dalbec as anything other than a part timer and feel as though he is more valuable in trade - perhaps in a deal for a fireman type guy. He was a pleasant surprise and was a huge reason they accelerated the rebuild, but IMHO was bottled lightning.
I'd like to see them roll with Casas out of spring training and keep Dalbec on as insurance if Tristan seems overwhelmed. Casas being ready or not at this point is the biggest factor in how to proceed. Him playing in the AFL even after a chaotic season where he played overseas for a spell, shows me they want him up very soon or he may have had the extra month off.
FWIW - Steamer and other projection systems like FGDC and ZiPS do not see another step forward (other than improved defense to a degree) and have him around a 1 to 1.5 fWAR guy.
FWIW further, in the fun to think about vein, Steamer has Casas with a slash of .253/.341/.458 with a wRC+ of 114.
I'd like to see them roll with Casas out of spring training and keep Dalbec on as insurance if Tristan seems overwhelmed. Casas being ready or not at this point is the biggest factor in how to proceed. Him playing in the AFL even after a chaotic season where he played overseas for a spell, shows me they want him up very soon or he may have had the extra month off.
FWIW - Steamer and other projection systems like FGDC and ZiPS do not see another step forward (other than improved defense to a degree) and have him around a 1 to 1.5 fWAR guy.
FWIW further, in the fun to think about vein, Steamer has Casas with a slash of .253/.341/.458 with a wRC+ of 114.
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