Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.

pokey_reese

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Traded at deadline to Oakland for a pitcher.
You've pretty much exactly described Jared Walsh last season for the Angels, or Jose Abreu, and even with terrible defense they were worth about 3 wins and were top-10 1B in the majors. Sign me up for that immediately.
 

EricFeczko

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You've pretty much exactly described Jared Walsh last season for the Angels, or Jose Abreu, and even with terrible defense they were worth about 3 wins and were top-10 1B in the majors. Sign me up for that immediately.
Additionally, whether Dalbec gets traded this season should depend more on Casas' development than Dalbec's performance.
If Casas is ready, then Dalbec could net an MLB-ready starter or re-stocking pitchers at higher levels of the farm system (which are still a bit limited).
If Casas isn't, then trading him just opens a hole at 1B and doesn't make a lot of sense.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I'm not sure what kind of starter Dalbec nabs at this point, at least straight up. I think he has better value on the team if they think he's a player to build around or a good complimentary piece to have on low money.
 

nvalvo

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That was the prevailing wisdom, right? And to a lesser extent, someone should have been signed as a contingency plan for Dalbec in case August was a mirage.
We should probably have a Dalbec thread, but I think there's some cause for cautious optimism with him. His K rate is dropping (under 30% for the season, and *well* under 30% in the last week or so), and his quality of contact remains very good, if not quite at the elite levels he's shown in the past. And we know he's been tinkering with his two-strike approach. So some of the peripherals suggest at least the potential for improvement.
 

Niastri

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Someone in another thread said "We should probably have a Dalbec that to discuss this" so I figured I would top this thread again...

I have Dalbec as a prospect binky, so I appreciate any hint he might be better than his performance this year so far.
 

chawson

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We should probably have a Dalbec thread, but I think there's some cause for cautious optimism with him. His K rate is dropping (under 30% for the season, and *well* under 30% in the last week or so), and his quality of contact remains very good, if not quite at the elite levels he's shown in the past. And we know he's been tinkering with his two-strike approach. So some of the peripherals suggest at least the potential for improvement.
Not to nitpick a small sample, but I'm curious what you're seeing that's optimistic. I'm seeing Dalbec's K rate at 33.3% over the last week, and more like >40% over the last five games. His barrel rate of 20.2% last year has been more than halved to 8.9% in 2022, and his pop-up rate has more than tripled over last year's mark. (He didn't pop up once last April; he's done it 9 times so far this month).

I still think Dalbec's skill set inspires optimism but he looks off to me right now.

Cordero may be spelling him at first in the short-term, but I think the plan would be to give him a chance to hack it in Boston as a way of clarifying our right field picture in ‘23, if not sooner. We’ve got no other real candidates in the upper minors and may not want to have to shell out for a guy like Grossman, Haniger, or Duvall next offseason.
 

InsideTheParker

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As a general rule, Dalbec has been quite good receiving at first base. The thought of a new-to-the-position Cordero playing there while a new-to-the-position Trevor Story clanks them from 2nd is nightmarish. I would so much have rather gone with Suzuki in RF, JBJ on the bench, or kept Renfroe than spent a lot of $ to play Arroyo and Story out of position. The Story purchase seems more like Bogaerts replacement than a serious use of players. And poor Dalbec, whose hitting can be wonderful but has been mostly gruesome so far, may be deprived of the only job he's doing at all well.
 

Niastri

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I agree... Dalbec has become passable as a first baseman. If they are going to bring up Franchy to replace someone, why not JBJ or end the Arroyo in right experiment? Sure, Arroyo hurt himself playing first, but learning first has got to be easier for an infielder than an outfielder. Why are they screwing with people defensively when their (more) natural positions need help too?
 

shaggydog2000

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As a general rule, Dalbec has been quite good receiving at first base. The thought of a new-to-the-position Cordero playing there while a new-to-the-position Trevor Story clanks them from 2nd is nightmarish. I would so much have rather gone with Suzuki in RF, JBJ on the bench, or kept Renfroe than spent a lot of $ to play Arroyo and Story out of position. The Story purchase seems more like Bogaerts replacement than a serious use of players. And poor Dalbec, whose hitting can be wonderful but has been mostly gruesome so far, may be deprived of the only job he's doing at all well.
Dalbec was the worst First Baseman last year by Plus Minus Runs and Defensive Runs Saved, and was 18th out of 21 qualified 1B in UZR/150, mostly because of his error rate. He's not going to be sticking in the majors based on his defense.
 

Rovin Romine

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Dalbec was the worst First Baseman last year by Plus Minus Runs and Defensive Runs Saved, and was 18th out of 21 qualified 1B in UZR/150, mostly because of his error rate. He's not going to be sticking in the majors based on his defense.
He's a converted 3B, who played 120 games at first in 2021. Prior to 2021, he had 21 games at first in the minors, and 21 games in the majors.

So I'm not really placing a lot of stock in his early 2021 numbers as predictive.

What really matters is whether he can improve on his defensive play.
 

shaggydog2000

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He's a converted 3B, who played 120 games at first in 2021. Prior to 2021, he had 21 games at first in the minors, and 21 games in the majors.

So I'm not really placing a lot of stock in his early 2021 numbers as predictive.

What really matters is whether he can improve on his defensive play.
It doesn't look like it's 1B specific skills that are holding him back. I severely doubt he's going to learn his way into being a plus defender. Maybe not the worst, but definitely not a good one.
 

Rovin Romine

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It doesn't look like it's 1B specific skills that are holding him back. I severely doubt he's going to learn his way into being a plus defender. Maybe not the worst, but definitely not a good one.
He was by most accounts at least an average third base defender.

He may never be a plus, but it's not like we're talking about the prototypcal "bat only" player here.
 

shaggydog2000

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He was by most accounts at least an average third base defender.

He may never be a plus, but it's not like we're talking about the prototypcal "bat only" player here.
No, Soxprospects said he had the potential to be average, but had limited range and regressed after making good progress.

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/dalbec-bobby.htm

He's well below average so far as a major leaguer. That's the only data we have (even if it isn't a big enough sample to be decisive), and it goes along with the scouting. Maybe the data and the scouts are wrong and he is actually good at defending, but so far he looks like a bat only player with a streaky bat. That isn't keeping you in the majors at 1B for long.
 

AB in DC

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So does Dalbec have any major league value at this point once Devers is healthy? He looks totally lost at the plate, and I'm not even sure he's good enough to be a late-inning defensive replacement at 1B.
 

Beale13

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Between him striking out in a key spot with the bases loaded by swinging at two Aroldis Chapman pitches that weren't close to strikes where it was obvious Chapman was having trouble throwing strikes, and his little league muff last night, I'd be happy to never see Bobby Dalbec play baseball again unless it was for a Red Sox opponent.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Between him striking out in a key spot with the bases loaded by swinging at two Aroldis Chapman pitches that weren't close to strikes where it was obvious Chapman was having trouble throwing strikes, and his little league muff last night, I'd be happy to never see Bobby Dalbec play baseball again unless it was for a Red Sox opponent.
I suspect we’re seeing the final days of Dalbec in a Sox uniform. Bloom can’t - and I believe won’t- stick with him after the AS break. I’d rather see Downs there at 3rd
 

AB in DC

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I suspect we’re seeing the final days of Dalbec in a Sox uniform. Bloom can’t - and I believe won’t- stick with him after the AS break. I’d rather see Downs there at 3rd
Well, in a Boston uniform anyway. He'd do fine in Worcester where maybe he'll figure things out again. (Someone please tell me he still has options.)
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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At this point, they can’t send him down as there are no available position players on the 40-man. So they’d have to DFA someone to even add another bat.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I suspect we’re seeing the final days of Dalbec in a Sox uniform. Bloom can’t - and I believe won’t- stick with him after the AS break. I’d rather see Downs there at 3rd
Yeah. At closer to full health, Downs makes more sense. I'm not sure he's a good option either but he can offer value outside of hitting. More upside too, given his age. It's been talked about in the other thread, but if Downs changes lead to long term gains in contact skills and lowered K%, he could be anywhere from UI/OF to all star. I guess you could say the same about Dalbec but he's 3 years older. I still think Downs would be better off in AAA getting steady ABs and playing some in the OF. Lets see if he can keep up the new found plate discipline or it's just a mirage.

Somehow, Dalbec only has an ISO of .124 and a HR% of 2.5%. But even if you gave him his career ISO, he still doesn't have an OPS+ of 100.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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At this point, they can’t send him down as there are no available position players on the 40-man. So they’d have to DFA someone to even add another bat.
So if they "release" him and he goes unclaimed, then he can accept a mL assignment and it'll take him off the 40-man, correct? I suspect he'll get claimed. The potential is significant but I don't think the Sox can deal with it much longer. He just can't be on a contending team and he's just going to destroy AAA again.
 

Daniel_Son

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Has anyone done a deep dive into what's actually wrong with him? He's cut his K rate and increased his walk rate, which should be encouraging. OTOH, he's posting a .124 ISO and a BABIP of .274 - so low power (a huge aspect of his game) and he's getting very unlucky with the balls he actually does hit. Is it as simple as that?
 
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Ganthem

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Yeah. At closer to full health, Downs makes more sense. I'm not sure he's a good option either but he can offer value outside of hitting. More upside too, given his age. It's been talked about in the other thread, but if Downs changes lead to long term gains in contact skills and lowered K%, he could be anywhere from UI/OF to all star. I guess you could say the same about Dalbec but he's 3 years older. I still think Downs would be better off in AAA getting steady ABs and playing some in the OF. Lets see if he can keep up the new found plate discipline or it's just a mirage.

Somehow, Dalbec only has an ISO of .124 and a HR% of 2.5%. But even if you gave him his career ISO, he still doesn't have an OPS+ of 100.
I would rather see Downs have continued success at the minor league level before giving him a permanent role on this team. Granted it is probably a good move in terms of defense, but it seems to not move the needle in terms of offense. Bloom should focus on acquiring a first baseman, moving Franchy to right and either sending Dalbec down or DFA him.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I would rather see Downs have continued success at the minor league level before giving him a permanent role on this team. Granted it is probably a good move in terms of defense, but it seems to not move the needle in terms of offense. Bloom should focus on acquiring a first baseman, moving Franchy to right and either sending Dalbec down or DFA him.
Yeah, I think most of us would prefer Downs in AAA and to move away from Dalbec.

Casas is also starting a rehab assignment but he hasn't played in 2 months and the team would be gambling on him being ready after the deadline.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I would rather see Downs have continued success at the minor league level before giving him a permanent role on this team. Granted it is probably a good move in terms of defense, but it seems to not move the needle in terms of offense. Bloom should focus on acquiring a first baseman, moving Franchy to right and either sending Dalbec down or DFA him.
It's more about preferring Downs over Dalbec to play 3B while Devers is out. Hasn't Arroyo played there though?
 

AB in DC

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At this point, they can’t send him down as there are no available position players on the 40-man. So they’d have to DFA someone to even add another bat.
I was more thinking about sending him to Worcester when Arroyo is off the IL, keeping Downs as a utility infielder. If Arroyo can get more work at 1B then I'd rather keep Downs's glove than Dalbec's.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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That makes some sense, but I think Downs needs playing time. I think we are at the point where a change of scenery deal for Dalbec would be ideal; wouldn’t expect much but maybe a RH reliever; someone like Taylor Clarke with the Royals?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The best answer to this Devers injury/1B shitshow is hopefully by a trade and soon with Devers getting healthy and taking a mid-season breather. Skip the AS Game!
 

AB in DC

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That makes some sense, but I think Downs needs playing time. I think we are at the point where a change of scenery deal for Dalbec would be ideal;
But that raises the problem another poster mentioned, in that we don't have another position player on the 40-man to replace him if he's traded -- at least not until Casas is ready to come up. If you want to give Downs (and Casas) more regular reps at Worcester then we have to keep Dalbec on the 26-man just for depth.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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But that raises the problem another poster mentioned, in that we don't have another position player on the 40-man to replace him if he's traded -- at least not until Casas is ready to come up. If you want to give Downs (and Casas) more regular reps at Worcester then we have to keep Dalbec on the 26-man just for depth.
ha I think that was actually me. But you are right. trade Dalbec for a reliever, DFA Valdez or Ort or whomever wasn’t DFA’d for activating Sale and add a position player to the 40-man.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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So if they "release" him and he goes unclaimed, then he can accept a mL assignment and it'll take him off the 40-man, correct? I suspect he'll get claimed. The potential is significant but I don't think the Sox can deal with it much longer. He just can't be on a contending team and he's just going to destroy AAA again.
Bobby never even destroyed AAA. SSS, but in 123 PAs in 2019 he hit .257/.301/.478 with 7 HR.
 
Has anyone done a deep dive into what's actually wrong with him? He's cut his K rate and increased his walk rate, which should be encouraging. OTOH, he's posting a .124 ISO and a BABIP of .274 - so low power (a huge aspect of his game) and he's getting very unlucky with the balls he actually does hit. Is it as simple as that?
I took a look at his statcast data and found a few noteworthy things:

  • Big picture, quality of contact is way down. xWOBA is down from .344 to .307 and xWOBACON is down from .503 to .394
  • Barrel rate has cratered: 20.2% to 8.5%
  • Sweet Spot % is down 6 points, Hard Hit% down 4 points
  • K's are down and BB's are up, but not enough to offset the loss of contact quality
  • He's traded a bit of his line drive% to ground balls and popups
  • He's pulling the ball a bit less and going oppo a bit more
  • He's somehow both topping the ball more and getting under it more
  • His discipline numbers are interesting. He's taking a more passive approach at the plate, swinging less both in and out of the zone. But his contact numbers in the zone are up significantly, and he's swinging and missing less. He's also getting pitched in the zone less.
I'm sure there's more nuance to it, but it sure looks like he's being more passive but not necessarily more selective. He's trading swing and misses for weak contact.
 

BaseballJones

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If the Sox trade Dalbec, it's a near guarantee that he'll hit a ton of homers for his new team. LOL

But seriously, they should look for a 1-2 year solution at 1b. I'd really love CJ Cron. The Rockies are going nowhere. Cron is 32 1/2 years old and not a key piece of their future. He's making $7.25 million, which isn't very much at all, but it's still not nothing. He's signed through 2023. The Sox should look into a deal for him and Bard, who is also old and is on the last year of his deal and not part of Colorado's future. I don't know what it would take to pry them from the Rockies, but the Sox have the prospects to make it happen. Obviously you don't do it if Colorado demands the major prospects.
 

DJnVa

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If the Sox trade Dalbec, it's a near guarantee that he'll hit a ton of homers for his new team. LOL

But seriously, they should look for a 1-2 year solution at 1b. I'd really love CJ Cron. The Rockies are going nowhere. Cron is 32 1/2 years old and not a key piece of their future. He's making $7.25 million, which isn't very much at all, but it's still not nothing. He's signed through 2023. The Sox should look into a deal for him and Bard, who is also old and is on the last year of his deal and not part of Colorado's future. I don't know what it would take to pry them from the Rockies, but the Sox have the prospects to make it happen. Obviously you don't do it if Colorado demands the major prospects.

CJ Cron has a .695 OPS away from Coors this season, and it was .734 last season. I'm not sure I'm parting with decent prospects for that.
 

IpswichSox

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I took a look at his statcast data and found a few noteworthy things:

  • Big picture, quality of contact is way down. xWOBA is down from .344 to .307 and xWOBACON is down from .503 to .394
  • Barrel rate has cratered: 20.2% to 8.5%
  • Sweet Spot % is down 6 points, Hard Hit% down 4 points
  • K's are down and BB's are up, but not enough to offset the loss of contact quality
  • He's traded a bit of his line drive% to ground balls and popups
  • He's pulling the ball a bit less and going oppo a bit more
  • He's somehow both topping the ball more and getting under it more
  • His discipline numbers are interesting. He's taking a more passive approach at the plate, swinging less both in and out of the zone. But his contact numbers in the zone are up significantly, and he's swinging and missing less. He's also getting pitched in the zone less.
I'm sure there's more nuance to it, but it sure looks like he's being more passive but not necessarily more selective. He's trading swing and misses for weak contact.
i.e., he's just a hot mess at the plate.

It's really too bad about Casas' injury because he was the expected antidote to this expected Dalbec outcome.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If the Sox trade Dalbec, it's a near guarantee that he'll hit a ton of homers for his new team. LOL

But seriously, they should look for a 1-2 year solution at 1b. I'd really love CJ Cron. The Rockies are going nowhere. Cron is 32 1/2 years old and not a key piece of their future. He's making $7.25 million, which isn't very much at all, but it's still not nothing. He's signed through 2023. The Sox should look into a deal for him and Bard, who is also old and is on the last year of his deal and not part of Colorado's future. I don't know what it would take to pry them from the Rockies, but the Sox have the prospects to make it happen. Obviously you don't do it if Colorado demands the major prospects.
Bell is definitely the preferable trade target and if no BP deals happen, I'd be fine with that.... but Cron is a decent second option. His home and away splits are, like has been mentioned countless time, pretty discountable as there is a "Coors effect" that has an effect on players hitting on the road.
 

DJnVa

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His home and away splits are, like has been mentioned countless time, pretty discountable as there is a "Coors effect" that has an effect on players hitting on the road.
Maybe. But Cron's lifetime OBP for his non-Coors Field seasons is .312. His career OPS outside of his Coors Field seasons is .776. That's .017 higher than Dalbec. Is that really worth it? We seem just as likely to get a Dalbec second half improvement like last season as we are to get Cron making a big impact.

Like with all trades it depends on the parameters (Bard, etc.) but I don't know.
 

Daniel_Son

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I took a look at his statcast data and found a few noteworthy things:

  • Big picture, quality of contact is way down. xWOBA is down from .344 to .307 and xWOBACON is down from .503 to .394
  • Barrel rate has cratered: 20.2% to 8.5%
  • Sweet Spot % is down 6 points, Hard Hit% down 4 points
  • K's are down and BB's are up, but not enough to offset the loss of contact quality
  • He's traded a bit of his line drive% to ground balls and popups
  • He's pulling the ball a bit less and going oppo a bit more
  • He's somehow both topping the ball more and getting under it more
  • His discipline numbers are interesting. He's taking a more passive approach at the plate, swinging less both in and out of the zone. But his contact numbers in the zone are up significantly, and he's swinging and missing less. He's also getting pitched in the zone less.
I'm sure there's more nuance to it, but it sure looks like he's being more passive but not necessarily more selective. He's trading swing and misses for weak contact.
Fantastic analysis, thanks. I wonder if he'd be better served going back to a harder-hitting approach. I'd gladly take some more Ks for 25-30 home runs.
 

grimshaw

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i.e., he's just a hot mess at the plate.

It's really too bad about Casas' injury because was the expected antidote to this expected Dalbec outcome.
Between last season and this one he has nine lives. Franchy has been ok but still not enough to seize the full time job.

The trade value site laughably has him as more valuable than Nick Pivetta. Do they even update the site during the season?
 

nvalvo

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Between last season and this one he has nine lives. Franchy has been ok but still not enough to seize the full time job.

The trade value site laughably has him as more valuable than Nick Pivetta. Do they even update the site during the season?
I was also struck that Baseball Trade Values still thinks Dalbec has some considerable value, but pre-arb players with any upside at all are generally pretty valuable, so they may not be a million miles off base.
 

chawson

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Between last season and this one he has nine lives. Franchy has been ok but still not enough to seize the full time job.

The trade value site laughably has him as more valuable than Nick Pivetta. Do they even update the site during the season?
I think they do, but not sure on what schedule. IIRC they had Jarren Duran up around 35-40 last July. He dipped down to 16 or so last March and he’s up at 21.5 now.

Dalbec has a few unteachable skills and still has plenty of time to put it all together. He needs a team that can afford to give him full-time play for another year or so. I hope we get back someone better than Austin Davis.

In any case, the guys who do that site seem pretty active. They tweeted a few days ago a “featured trade” of Josh Bell straight up for Jay Groome. I’d allow it.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Dalbec has value to teams like Oakland or Pittsburgh that run super-low payrolls and have rosters full of pre-arb players because they don't sign major league free agents (or at least, not good ones), but I don't see how he'd fetch a return on his own better than what Michael Chavis got. I would guess that any deal that brings in a first baseman (Bell, for example) would include Dalbec as part of the package on the way out.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Dalbec has value to teams like Oakland or Pittsburgh that run super-low payrolls and have rosters full of pre-arb players because they don't sign major league free agents (or at least, not good ones), but I don't see how he'd fetch a return on his own better than what Michael Chavis got. I would guess that any deal that brings in a first baseman (Bell, for example) would include Dalbec as part of the package on the way out.
What other playoff teams could use Bell right now? What would other teams trying to get him have to offer? Sox have some great mL depth that I’d imagine would be hard to beat.
Is Groome, Lugo and Dalbec waaaaaay too much? Does DC have any decent bullpen arms to add in?
 

sean1562

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I would not want to include Lugo in any trade for a rental. Dalbec and Groome alone could be enough. The Nats team is pretty devoid out of talent in the bullpen. I am not sure Tanner Rainey or Carl Edwards Jr are much of an upgrade for us.

Looking at other playoff contenders, most of them seem to be set at 1B. Mariners have Ty France, Blue Jays have Vlad Jr., Rays have Ji Man Choi(.847 OPS for the year), Cards have Goldschmidt, Braves have Olsen, Mets have Alonso, Dodgers have Freeman, and the Phillies have Hoskins. The Brewers might be looking for a Rowdy Tellez upgrade, the Astros could move on from Yuri Gurriel, and the Guardians could be looking to replace Owen Miller.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Jay Jaffe's "Replacement Level Killers" series has begun on FanGraphs. First base is the first position covered. Red Sox are top of the killer list. That's not where you want to be.

"After a tantalizing 23-game debut in 2020, Bobby Dalbec was subpar last year, hitting the ball very hard but striking out 34.4% of the time (second among all players with at least 400 PA) and finishing with a 107 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR. Even that version of Dalbec would be an improvement upon the current one, however. The 27-year-old is hitting .205/.286/.344 (76 wRC+) with a 31.3% strikeout rate and a barrel rate that’s dropped by more than half relative to last year (from 20.2% to 9.5%). Lately, he’s been serving as the short half of a platoon with Franchy Cordero, who himself has been pretty bad (.225/.299/.372, 87 wRC+) while striking out 32.4% of the time.

The Red Sox do have a first baseman of the future in 6-foot-5 lefty Tristan Casas, who topped the team’s prospect list and was 16th on our Top 100 heading into the season (he’s currently ranked 15th overall). Armed with a more mature approach at the plate and better contact skills than Dalbec, he wasn’t exactly lighting up the International League (.248/.359/.457) before suffering a right ankle sprain on May 17. After making a four-game rehab stint in the Florida Complex League last week, he’s likely to rejoin Triple-A Worcester this weekend. It’s asking too much for him to step into the big club’s job so soon, and so the team, which has gone just 5-12 in July after a 20-6 June, will need additional help. The Nationals’ Josh Bell and the Marlins’ Jesús Aguilar are both pending free agents who could fit, as could the Marlins’ Garrett Cooper, who has an additional year of club control and could also help in right field, where the team is below replacement level as well."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2022-replacement-level-killers-introduction-first-base/