Tim Tebow: Pride of The Philippines

jon abbey

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But Ockimey is 24, there are tons of examples of guys breaking through at 26 or 27 or 28. Kyle Higashioka is 29 and was drafted in 2008 and is finally getting a real chance (to be a backup) this season. The age coupled with the AAA incompetence is what makes Tebow an outlier, as a player.
 

billy ashley

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Here's a piece about his try out, the graded him harder than I remembered on power, and slightly easier on batting/fielding (but still bad)

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/what-scouts-are-saying-about-tim-tebows-mlb-tryout-083116

Arm- 40 (No carry)
Fielding- 45 (Needs footwork)
Hitting- 35 (Grooved uppercut swing)
Power- 55 (Raw power)
Running- 55 (6.7 60-yard dash time)

If that's an 18 year old debating between signing a contract and going to college, I'd recommend they prepare for school/
 

billy ashley

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But Ockimey is 24, there are tons of examples of guys breaking through at 26 or 27 or 28. Kyle Higashioka is 29 and was drafted in 2008 and is finally getting a real chance (to be a backup) this season. The age coupled with the AAA incompetence is what makes Tebow an outlier, as a player.

I don't disagree with you at all. I think Ock is a bad MLB hitter, who if platooned might be a useful bench piece. I think Tebow is a horrific offensive player in AAA. The difference in offense is pretty large between the two, and the difference in defense isn't as large as you'd want when comparing one's self to one of the least well rounded "prospects*" in the league.


*I've followed Ock since he was drafted and have hopes for him, but there is a reason he went unprotected 2 years in a row.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That there, coupled with his offensive prowess, is why I'm not convinced that Tebow is one of the best 30 baseball players in the Philippians.
The Philippines Baseball League folded in 2012 and was recreated in 2019. The 2017 National Team had 3 former Major Leaguers. Chris Aguila, Eric Farris and Clay Rapada. You're either underrating Tebow or overrating the Philippines. Tebow was a solid AA player. I'd guess the Philippines Baseball League isn't even A+ quality, never mind AA. Hell, it may not even be NCAA quality since the league is made up of 6 universities and 1 other team. Taylor Garrison had all of 1 ip at AAA. Kevin Vance had 9 ip at AAA. JR Bunda, Ryan Juarez,. Devon Ramirez and Josh Wong, Indy league. . Brad Haynal and Brady Conlan made it all the way to A+! Songco made it to AA. Not only would Tebow be one of their best 30 players, he'd be one of their 9 best offensive players and be starting games.

You should be very, very convinced. I have no idea why you aren't.
 

Cesar Crespo

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There are 3/4 current players in the MLB that could play for the Filipino team from what I can tell

Addison Russell
Tyler Saladino
Chase and Travis D'Arnaud
 

billy ashley

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The Philippines Baseball League folded in 2012 and was recreated in 2019. The 2017 National Team had 3 former Major Leaguers. Chris Aguila, Eric Farris and Clay Rapada. You're either underrating Tebow or overrating the Philippines. Tebow was a solid AA player. I'd guess the Philippines Baseball League isn't even A+ quality, never mind AA. Hell, it may not even be NCAA quality since the league is made up of 6 universities and 1 other team. Taylor Garrison had all of 1 ip at AAA. Kevin Vance had 9 ip at AAA. JR Bunda, Ryan Juarez,. Devon Ramirez and Josh Wong, Indy league. . Brad Haynal and Brady Conlan made it all the way to A+! Songco made it to AA. Not only would Tebow be one of their best 30 players, he'd be one of their 9 best offensive players and be starting games.

You should be very, very convinced. I have no idea why you aren't.

Listen, I get the quality of baseball in the Philippines is poor. But I don't think you can credibly argue that Tebow was a "quality" AA player. He was roughly 7% better than average offensively, largely fueled by an unsustainable BABIP, it was over .400. With normal luck he'd have been well below average offensively. One could argue that BABIP is less luck dependent in the minors for guys who murder the ball, but being that Tebow has never posted one above .308 at any other level, it seems like a fluke.

This was while being a bad defender in left field. That is not a quality AA player.
 

billy ashley

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If you want to talk about Tebow's most successful season, it's actually probably the season he had in high A, in which he had bad, but not eye popping K to BB rates. That year he had a normal BABIP, .290, and was about 3% worse than league average. His ISO was exactly the same.

So yeah, I guess if you want to say that a slightly below average LF who can't play defense is a quality player, I guess that's a quality player.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If you want to talk about Tebow's most successful season, it's actually probably the season he had in high A, in which he had bad, but not eye popping K to BB rates. That year he had a normal BABIP, .290, and was about 3% worse than league average. His ISO was exactly the same.

So yeah, I guess if you want to say that a slightly below average LF who can't play defense is a quality player, I guess that's a quality player.
He's a lot better than some random guy off the street with 0 baseball skills and 80 speed. You think baseball is far easier than it is.
 

billy ashley

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These are Tebow's statistics. He was an abysmal hitter in AA, who lucked himself into a 106 wRC+. Again, while providing substantial negative defensive value. I think his High A is actually really impressive upon further reflection. He was almost average offensively without any crazy luck helping him out. Which that he didn't play competitive baseball at all from his teenage years to his late 20s, speaks to how athletic the guy is.

But yeah. That's not a quality minor league line.

Below is the career of old friend Miles Head, a similarly offense only prospect (granted he was a 3b, in theory)

28725

Miles Head was sort of interesting in 2011. But yeah, he was a decade younger. I'm not sure if Head would be at his current age, among the 30 best players in a country with 100,000,000 people, either.
 

billy ashley

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He's a lot better than some random guy off the street with 0 baseball skills and 80 speed. You think baseball is far easier than it is.
I think it's really hard. I also think that defense and zero offensive value probably provides more utility than only a little offensive value, and negative defensive value.
 

billy ashley

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I'll say this, his high A numbers suggest that if Tebow had focused on baseball rather than football, he very likely could have been a legitimate prospect. Obviously football worked out well for him so he made the right choice, but the fact that he wasn't totally embarrassed offensively in high A, and demonstrated gains from A to high A (that K rate drop is impressive) is pretty wild, given his background.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think it's really hard. I also think that defense and zero offensive value probably provides more utility than only a little offensive value, and negative defensive value.
Maybe but defense is a baseball skill. Didn't the Oakland A's literally sign a track and field guy back in the 70's for the sole purpose of only stealing bases?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'll say this, his high A numbers suggest that if Tebow had focused on baseball rather than football, he very likely could have been a legitimate prospect. Obviously football worked out well for him so he made the right choice, but the fact that he wasn't totally embarrassed offensively in high A, and demonstrated gains from A to high A (that K rate drop is impressive) is pretty wild, given his background.
I'm not arguing he's a legitimate prospect. 90%+ of the players in the minors aren't. He's Aneury Tavarez. Fringe prospect maybe.
 
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He's a lot better than some random guy off the street with 0 baseball skills and 80 speed. You think baseball is far easier than it is.
How many juniors in high school are playing baseball right now? How many of those deserve a minor league invite after having not played in 10 years. Without his name, Tebow is a random guy off the street. 0 baseball skills might be slightly too low though.
 

Cesar Crespo

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How many juniors in high school are playing baseball right now? How many of those deserve a minor league invite after having not played in 10 years. Without his name, Tebow is a random guy off the street. 0 baseball skills might be slightly too low though.
A guy who made a professional sports league should always be allowed to tryout for another sport because they are clearly physically gifted. Those juniors in HS probably don't deserve to play in the minors, ever.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Tim Tebow isn't the only person to fail at one sport to try another one. He's just a bit older than guys like Mark Hendrickson.

edit: Shaq Thompson would get another shot at baseball if he wanted it, despite being the worst baseball player ever.
 

billy ashley

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Way off topic, but I'm not sure Shaq Green Thompson would get another try... beyond that, his baseball experience was vastly different. Tebow was initially assigned to the instructional league, while being a decade older than most of his peers in the Instructs. Due to Thompson needing to decide whether or not to abandon football, which he had health concerns related, to, he needed to be thrown into competitive play immediately. So Thompson went cold into a league against competition you'd normally not subject a more conventional high schooler to, let alone a guy who hadn't seen live pitching in a year.

That experience was of course noteworthy for all the wrong reasons. Thompson went back to football, where he was of course a standout. It worked out well for him, and we all should be happy for him. Hopefully he remains healthy.

Tebow got adjustment time, and when he got into games he did so while physically much more mature than his initial competition.
 

InstaFace

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Just to be clear, nobody has asserted that Tebow (now or at any point in his pro baseball career) is a legitimate big-league prospect.

All that Cesar Crespo and I are saying is that he's pretty clearly one of the best players eligible to play for the Philippines, which is kinda fun in a small-world sort of way.

There are 3/4 current players in the MLB that could play for the Filipino team from what I can tell

Addison Russell
Tyler Saladino
Chase and Travis D'Arnaud
That's interesting, where did you manage to pull that info from? Obviously Travis D'Arnaud playing for their team would be like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang playing for the Gabon national football team - so much better than everyone else there that the plan is basically "hope he makes something happen". Let's see, we've got a few fringe minor-league never-weres, one or two has-been prospects, a few retired major leaguers, a well-calibrated pitching machine, and... a guy who is an above-average current major leaguer.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Just to be clear, nobody has asserted that Tebow (now or at any point in his pro baseball career) is a legitimate big-league prospect.

All that Cesar Crespo and I are saying is that he's pretty clearly one of the best players eligible to play for the Philippines, which is kinda fun in a small-world sort of way.


That's interesting, where did you manage to pull that info from? Obviously Travis D'Arnaud playing for their team would be like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang playing for the Gabon national football team - so much better than everyone else there that the plan is basically "hope he makes something happen". Let's see, we've got a few fringe minor-league never-weres, one or two has-been prospects, a few retired major leaguers, a well-calibrated pitching machine, and... a guy who is an above-average current major leaguer.
Wikipedia. There could be more but like you said, the point is it's pretty clear a guy who made it all the way to AAA is good enough to make the Filipino team. Addison Russell is in the same boat as Tebow in that he's eligible for the team because his mom is Filipino.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Filipino_American_sportspeople
I get his point, but I think he was considering defense as a non baseball skill. An all glove guy may very well be better than Tebow but there aren't many all glove guys from the Philippines either. Plus an all glove guy would probably make it all the way to AAA regardless. See a guy like Javy Guerra (not Filipino, just using him as an example of a guy who can't hit at all but made it to AAA anyway).
 

Plympton91

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Watching the Red Sox game yesterday, Ryan Brasier in 2018 popped up as another comp, though on the pitching side.
 

jon abbey

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The Mets released 39 minor leaguers today, but Timmy T was not one of them. The dream is alive!