Timelord Injury Watch

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
I'm gonna be very interested to see the details on this deal.

4/54 feels a bit rich to me with his inability to stay on the court so far.

I'm expecting to see incentives and/or not fully guaranteed years in this contract.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,300
deep inside Guido territory
I think we all agree if he is injured for the majority of the contract it won't be a good one. My point was that when you said he may not "pan out", I got the sense you were implying 2 variables (both health and quality).

I would say there is only one variable really. If he plays and is healthy, I dont doubt he will be good. We don't know how good and how much he could potentially exceed the contract, but he is already good enough to be worth it if healthy.

He's not a young athletic lotto ticket anymore. He already hit.
Depends on your definition of hit. We know he’s a rotation guy. To me, that’s it to this point. He has a lot of development left offensively if he wants to be considered more than that. I like him as a player and what he could become, but I’m not going to say he’s hit yet. When he stays healthy and takes the next step to becoming a reliable player then I will.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,126
Santa Monica
Depends on your definition of hit. We know he’s a rotation guy. To me, that’s it to this point. He has a lot of development left offensively if he wants to be considered more than that. I like him as a player and what he could become, but I’m not going to say he’s hit yet. When he stays healthy and takes the next step to becoming a reliable player then I will.
IF he stays healthy, gets more minutes and takes another step forward he'll be on the cusp of an All-Star team.

but thats a very big IF
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
Depends on your definition of hit. We know he’s a rotation guy. To me, that’s it to this point. He has a lot of development left offensively if he wants to be considered more than that. I like him as a player and what he could become, but I’m not going to say he’s hit yet. When he stays healthy and takes the next step to becoming a reliable player then I will.
No way, he is a starting center if he's healthy. Health is the big if, but saying he's just a rotation guy right now is selling him way short.

He could certainly develop more, but he already played at a high level last season. Timelord is good. Very good. He just has to play.
 

Attachments

Last edited:

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,934
Cultural hub of the universe
Depends on your definition of hit. We know he’s a rotation guy. To me, that’s it to this point. He has a lot of development left offensively if he wants to be considered more than that. I like him as a player and what he could become, but I’m not going to say he’s hit yet. When he stays healthy and takes the next step to becoming a reliable player then I will.
I'd agree. I think offensively he has upside still if the elbow jumper starts to have some consistency, and defensively he'll get better with more experience. He (and he's not the only one) needs to tighten up on the rotations.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,813
I love the guy, so I'm happy. There were games last season where he was flying around the court and was the only reason to watch the Celtics. He was that good. He's for real. He's learning to be smarter about timing his jumps, not getting overeager, and starting to find his position on defense. Offensive game could develop some? He shows an ability to hit short jumpers.

I would've rather done 4 for $48m, in that ballpark, with incentives tied to how many games he plays in. But I like having him locked up for the next five years. He made a big leap last year (so to speak).
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Depends on your definition of hit. We know he’s a rotation guy. To me, that’s it to this point. He has a lot of development left offensively if he wants to be considered more than that. I like him as a player and what he could become, but I’m not going to say he’s hit yet. When he stays healthy and takes the next step to becoming a reliable player then I will.
Yeah this is crazy, he's at least as good on offense as a whole lot of starters, I mean, he's a better passing Gobert (though Gobert does get more FTs).
I'd say he's as good or better on offense than all of the following who started a significant amount of games last year:
Zubac, Zeller, Turner, Noel, Looney, Len, Jordan, Robinson, Looney, Biyombo, Adams

I love the guy, so I'm happy. There were games last season where he was flying around the court and was the only reason to watch the Celtics. He was that good. He's for real. He's learning to be smarter about timing his jumps, not getting overeager, and starting to find his position on defense. Offensive game could develop some? He shows an ability to hit short jumpers.

I would've rather done 4 for $48m, in that ballpark, with incentives tied to how many games he plays in. But I like having him locked up for the next five years. He made a big leap last year (so to speak).
4/48 probably is a fairly easy turndown for him. He'd get 3/33+ no matter what just on age and potential assuming he didn't have a career threatening injury, and the upside is big. The 4th year and extra money is what makes him skip a very thin FA class.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,813
One possible knock on him: He doesn't always seem to bring 100% intensity. So that'll be something to keep an eye on. But when he's fired up, he's a dominant player. Maybe Ime can be a "Rob whisperer" and keep him engaged at a high level. Anyway, I'm excited. I was hoping Brad could pull off this extension.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,199
CA
I like this deal and love that this core is locked up at reasonable rates. Obviously, health drives everything with RW — and if he does stay healthy, he will make the leap, and this will be a steal of a contract in 2 years.

It gives me confidence that PBS gave him this contract, as he must trust the Celtics training staff (and his experiences with him) that he can be healthy, and that his previous injuries are not debilitating.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,126
Santa Monica
I love the guy, so I'm happy. There were games last season where he was flying around the court and was the only reason to watch the Celtics. He was that good. He's for real. He's learning to be smarter about timing his jumps, not getting overeager, and starting to find his position on defense. Offensive game could develop some? He shows an ability to hit short jumpers.

I would've rather done 4 for $48m, in that ballpark, with incentives tied to how many games he plays in. But I like having him locked up for the next five years. He made a big leap last year (so to speak).
I imagine there will be incentives/options embedded, which will make this deal look even better

I'd be shocked if the entire amount is guaranteed
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,101
I imagine there will be incentives/options embedded, which will make this deal look even better

I'd be shocked if the entire amount is guaranteed
At least 85% is guaranteed. The CBA has limits on the types of incentives that can be put in player contracts, and they cannot exceed 15% of the player's salary:

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q74

A bonus also cannot be based on the player dressing in uniform or being eligible to play for a specific number of games.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,126
Santa Monica
At least 85% is guaranteed. The CBA has limits on the types of incentives that can be put in player contracts, and they cannot exceed 15% of the player's salary:

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q74
thanks.

He'll get $3.7MM this season then it goes to ~$13.5MM/yr for the next 4yrs (is that last year a team option?)

so the absolute most in incentives would be ~ $2MM/yr with $11.5MM gtd

Loving this off-season
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
4/48 probably is a fairly easy turndown for him. He'd get 3/33+ no matter what just on age and potential assuming he didn't have a career threatening injury, and the upside is big. The 4th year and extra money is what makes him skip a very thin FA class.
I don't know if I'd call walking away from $48M when one has a injury history like TL but your general point holds. Unless something really serious happened, TL has shown so much potential that getting the MLE - which would be 4/$41M based on this year's numbers - seems like a realistic floor and who knows what might happen if TL puts a full season together.

Hope TL realizes now he doesn't have to block every shot, if that allows him to stay on the court for more games.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,958
Saskatoon Canada
One possible knock on him: He doesn't always seem to bring 100% intensity. So that'll be something to keep an eye on. But when he's fired up, he's a dominant player. Maybe Ime can be a "Rob whisperer" and keep him engaged at a high level. Anyway, I'm excited. I was hoping Brad could pull off this extension.
I am not as high on him as most, mostly because he can't stay healthy, but this isn;t fair. He was tentative, at times. But, once he figured things out he was getting after it.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Big gamble on his health. Granted, if his health were a given, he's probably looking at Jarrett Allen money.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Big gamble on his health. Granted, if his health were a given, he's probably looking at Jarrett Allen money.
This is why I don’t feel it is a gamble. If he DID get Jarrett Allen money then that would be the gamble......but his injury history is baked into the contract to protect the Celtics while he receives some security to protect himself as well. It’s one of those deals that make sense for both sides to sign right now.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
@lovegtm pretty much nailed it in March


I was definitely in the low-ball him camp (for '22 FA/cap hold purposes), but after the Marcus signing paying the going rate for TL makes all the sense in the world. Plus they know his medicals and will load manage the shit out of Rob

Some people around here were pretty down on TL the first few months last season, nice to see him turn it around.
Ha, didn't even remember I got that one right. Stopped clock etc.

I love the contract--if it goes underwater, there'd be $27-40M to get off of, which would cost roughly a 1st rounder. I'm very fine taking that chance given TL's huge upside. He has 2nd to 3rd best player on a title team upside.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,813
I am not as high on him as most, mostly because he can't stay healthy, but this isn;t fair. He was tentative, at times. But, once he figured things out he was getting after it.
Consistent effort was a knock on him coming out of college. I didn't see it so much last year, but his first couple of years, yeah. Sometimes he seemed to play worse in garbage minutes (when a lot of end-of-the-bench guys will be hustling, trying to prove themselves). From NBADraft.net:
Disappears for stretches of games, particularly offensively … Competitive level has been questioned by some …
 

brendan f

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2019
267
Big gamble on his health. Granted, if his health were a given, he's probably looking at Jarrett Allen money.
I'm not sure if people here are using Jarret Allen because they think he's a good barometer of the center market, but I think it's pretty clear he was vastly overpaid this offseason. If healthy, RW would get Allen money and actually deserve it. He's better than Allen at literally everything (except, of course, minutes played).
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Consistent effort was a knock on him coming out of college. I didn't see it so much last year, but his first couple of years, yeah. Sometimes he seemed to play worse in garbage minutes (when a lot of end-of-the-bench guys will be hustling, trying to prove themselves). From NBADraft.net:
The NBADraft.net report (they lose more relevance with each passing year) is a joke without any context. When Billy Kennedy replaced his perimeter-heavy scoring attack of Alex Caruso, Jalen Jones and Danuel House after they left for the NBA with a pair of low-post bigs in Tyler Davis and TL the offense went from up-tempo to walk it up, swing to Davis once he gets post-up pos in the low block first, if he’s fronted by the zone swing to other side and if Hogg or their other 3-pt shooter (forget name) didn’t have a look they would look to TL for the re-post on the other low block. Aside from it being a boring offense it was easily schemed by using a 2-3 zone so TL’s athleticism was pretty much relegated to the offensive glass. Criticizing him for getting lost in that offense ignores his role in that offense and the fact that Tyler Davis was a much better low post offensive option didn’t help TL be involved more.
 
Last edited:

Koufax

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,936
When playing for the Celtics, especially last season, he did not lack for intensity. Health, not intensity, is the dark cloud hanging over him.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
I'm not sure if people here are using Jarret Allen because they think he's a good barometer of the center market, but I think it's pretty clear he was vastly overpaid this offseason. If healthy, RW would get Allen money and actually deserve it. He's better than Allen at literally everything (except, of course, minutes played).
How is it clear Allen was vastly overpaid?

Allen may well have received an "above market" contract but its not clear to me given the complex nature of NBA economics, his potential market, how much of a Cavs premium was built in as well as the true (not reported) state of league finances.

Again, not saying you are incorrect but if we are just comparing his contract to those inked by players in seasons prior, I am not sure it tells us much. In general, I assume that most NBA contracts will favor the teams because that has been the long-term trend (and a byproduct of how the league is structured financially).
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,813
The NBADraft.net report (they lose more relevance with each passing year) is a joke without any context. When Billy Kennedy replaced his perimeter-heavy scoring attack of Alex Caruso, Jalen Jones and Danuel House after they left for the NBA with a pair of low-post bigs in Tyler Davis and TL the offense went from up-tempo to walk it up, swing to Davis once he gets post-up pos in the low block first, if he’s fronted by the zone swing to other side and if Hogg or their other 3-pt shooter (forget name) didn’t have a look they would look to TL for the re-post on the other low block. Aside from it being a boring offense it was easily schemed by using a 2-3 zone so TL’s athleticism was pretty much relegated to the offensive glass. Criticizing him for getting lost in that offense ignores his role in that offense and the fact that Tyler Davis was a much better low post offensive option didn’t help TL be involved more.
Could well be true; I confess I didn't watch him play college ball. But there was a perception anyway (unfounded or not) that, coming out of college, he was inconsistent on effort and it may have even hurt his draft stock a bit; I've seen the criticism a few places, not just NBADraft.net. Here it is at The Stepien:
Motor runs hot-and-cold. Will disappear for long stretches of games and doesn’t go out of his way to make hustle plays.
I saw some signs of that his first couple of years, but not last year. So it may have just been a maturity thing. Anyway, the bottom line is we're all worried primarily about the same thing: his health, and that weird "popliteal artery entrapment syndrome."

But as I said above, I love the guy and I'm probably the most thrilled of anyone on this board that he got extended.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
Honestly I think most of what looked like lack of effort was just him being uncertain and not wanting to overcommit. You know the coaches have been drilling it into his head not to leap for pump fakes and to stay in position, I think sometimes it's gonna look like him not trying when really he's just unsure of his next move. Not that that makes it any better, but it is different. The Ringer has this as his negatives:

MINUSES
  • Limbs flail when he shoots jumpers. Form and release look different each time.
  • Needs to overhaul his shot form; he brings the ball up the left side of his body, but shoots with his right hand.
  • Doesn’t always do the little things; doesn’t show proper screening technique and rarely seals a defender on the post.
  • Undisciplined defender who reaches too often and falls out of his stance.
  • Only an average rebounder statistically considering his athleticism, though that may be because he played out of position at A&M.
Not really effort, but undisciplined and lacking technique is a common complaint.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,406
around the way
Honestly I think most of what looked like lack of effort was just him being uncertain and not wanting to overcommit. You know the coaches have been drilling it into his head not to leap for pump fakes and to stay in position, I think sometimes it's gonna look like him not trying when really he's just unsure of his next move. Not that that makes it any better, but it is different. The Ringer has this as his negatives:

Not really effort, but undisciplined and lacking technique is a common complaint.
I think that your assessment is pretty good. Effort seems to be there to me. Problem is his tendency to try to do everything, and the potential downsides that come with that. CBS routinely trumped a few messages on defense to guys: don't overhelp, don't forget to build back out to the shooters, don't leave the floor until the other guy does. TL has had problems with all of those at times during his NBA career and has consumed the coaching to try to get better at them. Sometimes he's probably thinking to much. Or he's doing what Brad told him to do and not overcommitting to particular things, and maybe that sometimes looks weird to the viewer who doesn't know how to watch film.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,126
Santa Monica
At the risk of taking over the Marcus thread with 2-bigs talk, I wouldn't be surprised if we see TL and Al together in very specific matchups. It is generally a bad idea of course, but against certain 2-big lineups for stretches, it might not be so awful.

TL is quick and athletic enough that you won't get burned that badly for having two immobile guys out there in the right situation. And Al can shoot, so you're not getting killed terribly on spacing/shooting. I can see this for a few minutes against say Lopez/Portis type lineups.

You can't run TL + Kanter (2 non-shooters) or Al + Kanter (two slow bastards), but I think that you can run TL and Al...sparingly.
bringing this over from the Smart thread

Al and Rob's minutes/use are precious, I hate the thought of them being forced on the floor together.

I do think Jaylen could handle most 4s (ie Portis), esp in a playoff scenario. BUT if the Al/Rob 2-BIG lineup is a consideration of Ime/PBS they need to see if Grant has dropped weight or go trade for Nance, Slo-Mo or sign Thad Young*/Millsap/ Ennis** to a vet min deal (or maybe they keep Parker)

While being the biggest proponent of Baynes/Horford several years back, I was very anti-2 BIGs slop we saw last season or the pairing of Al/Rob.


* rumors of Thad Young being bought out
**did Ennis sign with the Lakers?
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Could well be true; I confess I didn't watch him play college ball. But there was a perception anyway (unfounded or not) that, coming out of college, he was inconsistent on effort and it may have even hurt his draft stock a bit; I've seen the criticism a few places, not just NBADraft.net. Here it is at The Stepien:

I saw some signs of that his first couple of years, but not last year. So it may have just been a maturity thing. Anyway, the bottom line is we're all worried primarily about the same thing: his health, and that weird "popliteal artery entrapment syndrome."

But as I said above, I love the guy and I'm probably the most thrilled of anyone on this board that he got extended.
Right, I understand the criticism but it really was unfounded and then it began gathering steam. What these people aren’t recognizing is that his role in the zone offense, nearly all teams played zone due to not having a big to matchup with Davis who’d be an automatic 2 against man-to-man, literally consistent of being on the weak side block waiting for his action which often never came. So they see him not being active and assume he should be “doing something” when he was oftentimes doing precisely what he was supposed to be doing.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,333
I’ve never seen a lack of intensity from TL but rather he would be slow to process plays/be thinking too much and it gives the appearance of less effort.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
Last season, the Celtics were 29-23 when TL played, 7-13 without.
They were 10-3 with Rob Williams as a starter. 19-20 with him off the bench.


For comparison:

Tatum: 34-30 with. 2-6 without
Brown: 30-28 with, 6-8 without
Kemba: 22-21 with, 14-15 without
 

brendan f

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2019
267
How is it clear Allen was vastly overpaid?
Well, first off he was a restricted free agent, so the Cavs could have just tested what other suitors would give him and match; Instead, they decided to pony up and pay him. He's making a decent chunk more than Clint Capela, a player who is pretty clearly better than him. He's relatively comparable to Richaun Holmes who just signed for just over half of what Allen is getting paid. Now granted Allen is younger but he's shown little growth since he entered the NBA. If you're a believer that he's going to make some leaps going forward, I guess the contract looks okay. Just not a believer in that. Bottom line for me is he's closer to a decent starting center--of whom there are many who make far less money-- than someone who deserves a big contract.

I'm so excited about the Williams contract though. A little surprised he didn't just bet on himself this year and look to cash in but I'm thrilled we have him going forward. He's come a long way since missing that flight. I'm getting irrationally excited about the defensive upside of this team. Also love our frontcourt versatility with Williams (rim runner), Horford (floor spacer), and Kanter (traditional center).
 
Last edited:

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
5,872
Well, first off he was a restricted free agent, so the Cavs could have just tested what other suitors would give him and match; Instead, they decided to pony up and pay him. He's making a decent chunk more than Clint Capela, a player who is pretty clearly better than him. He's relatively comparable to Richaun Holmes who just signed for just over half of what Allen is getting paid. Now granted Allen is younger but he's shown little growth since he entered the NBA. If you're a believer that he's going to make some leaps going forward, I guess the contract looks okay. Just not a believer in that. Bottom line for me is he's closer to a decent starting center--of whom there are many who make far less money-- than someone who deserves a big contract.

I'm so excited about the Williams contract though. A little surprised he didn't just bet on himself this year and look to cash in but I'm thrilled we have him going forward. He's come a long way since missing that flight. I'm getting irrationally excited about the defensive upside of this team.
(1) Maybe just a difference in intuition, but I would've been stunned if he bet on himself. Given his injury history and the artery syndrome, it seems (heavy emphasis on seems as I'm no doctor) just as likely he's out of the league in a year or two than he's our starting center. I can only imagine his agent was just short of screaming into his ear to take an extension. But I don't have the insight into his medical history that his doctors do or that his agent does, etc.

(2) I don't think it's irrational at all! Schroder (or Smart, if he starts) over Kemba is a huge improvement -- so is J-Rich over the poo poo platter of Teague, Pritchard, Nesmith, Fournier, Ojeleye, etc and Horford/Williams over TT/Williams. Now the only obvious weak link out of the rotation players is Pritchard (or Nesmith, if he leapfrogs Pritchard), who in spite of all his flaws on the defensive end manages to generate some deflections and steals.
 
Last edited:

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
There are just 6 centers making more than Allen's $20M/annually: The three centers who just made all-NBA (Jokic/Embiid/Gobert) and three centers who've made multiple all-star teams (KAT/Vucevic/Horford). It was a tremendous overpay (especially considering that he was a RFA) and par for the course for the Cavs, who in their last dozen non-Lebron years have averaged under 24 wins.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Well, first off he was a restricted free agent, so the Cavs could have just tested what other suitors would give him and match; Instead, they decided to pony up and pay him. He's making a decent chunk more than Clint Capela, a player who is pretty clearly better than him. He's relatively comparable to Richaun Holmes who just signed for just over half of what Allen is getting paid. Now granted Allen is younger but he's shown little growth since he entered the NBA. If you're a believer that he's going to make some leaps going forward, I guess the contract looks okay. Just not a believer in that. Bottom line for me is he's closer to a decent starting center--of whom there are many who make far less money-- than someone who deserves a big contract.

I'm so excited about the Williams contract though. A little surprised he didn't just bet on himself this year and look to cash in but I'm thrilled we have him going forward. He's come a long way since missing that flight. I'm getting irrationally excited about the defensive upside of this team. Also love our frontcourt versatility with Williams (rim runner), Horford (floor spacer), and Kanter (traditional center).
Allen is 23 years old and has come a long way in 3 years of understanding the game. I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume his best years are ahead of him. Comparing him in the same stratosphere to a craptastic Rashaun Holmes is a stretch. I’ll agree that without any of us having behind the scene knowledge about what was happening it may be an overpay or his agent made a hard line play in that without this deal he’d be hitting the market next summer as one of the most sought after UFA……in which case the Cavs were wise not to be penny wise and dollar foolish. It isn’t like they are a destination that guys like Jarrett Allen cling to as UFA.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Allen is younger than TL, he's 23 and honestly has a better track record than Holmes.

I also disagree he hasn't shown improvement. He took a massive leap from his bad first two years to his 3rdd year, he didn't take a big leap in this weird COVID year, but he also didn't really regress, which is in itself something given how many young early career guys struggled with the post bubble season (especially ones who were in the bubble).

The advanced metrics really like his D. I think the amount he got paid is perfectly reasonable for a 23 year old who has multiple seasons with big minutes who grades out as very good on D and not a disaster on O. Teams always roll the dice on that kind of player. He's an impact defender, and there is a chance he grows into an offensive game. Looking at other young bigs, he was probably more highly thought of than Collins until this year, and he isn't a terrible bet to be a better all-around player than Collins over their deals, certainly $5M AAV difference isn't unreasonable.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
Allen is 23 years old and has come a long way in 3 years of understanding the game. I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume his best years are ahead of him. Comparing him in the same stratosphere to a craptastic Rashaun Holmes is a stretch. I’ll agree that without any of us having behind the scene knowledge about what was happening it may be an overpay or his agent made a hard line play in that without this deal he’d be hitting the market next summer as one of the most sought after UFA……in which case the Cavs were wise not to be penny wise and dollar foolish. It isn’t like they are a destination that guys like Jarrett Allen cling to as UFA.
I appreciate the perennial dilemma that teams like the Cavs face with regards to attracting and retaining free agents, but overpaying for mediocrity when your team finished 28 games under .500 is not the way out. Last year among centers (per game) Allen was 12th in minutes, 18th in points, 11th in rebounds, 10th in blocks, 23rd in assists and 41st in steals. Also among centers, he was 20th in RPM, 15th in PER, 13th in WS/48, 15th in OBPM, 23rd in DPBM and 14th in VORP. He's still young but this isn't a player with tremendous amounts of untapped potential. He's not likely going to become a good 3 point shooter, playmaker for himself or others, or come back stronger and faster. It's nothing but incremental improvement for him from here on out, with his ceiling being a borderline top 10 NBA center.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I appreciate the perennial dilemma that teams like the Cavs face with regards to attracting and retaining free agents, but overpaying for mediocrity when your team finished 28 games under .500 is not the way out. Last year among centers (per game) Allen was 12th in minutes, 18th in points, 11th in rebounds, 10th in blocks, 23rd in assists and 41st in steals. Also among centers, he was 20th in RPM, 15th in PER, 13th in WS/48, 15th in OBPM, 23rd in DPBM and 14th in VORP. He's still young but this isn't a player with tremendous amounts of untapped potential. He's not likely going to become a good 3 point shooter, playmaker for himself or others, or come back stronger and faster. It's nothing but incremental improvement for him from here on out, with his ceiling being a borderline top 10 NBA center.
I mean you say you appreciate that they need to put a competitive product on the floor then go on to show why they shouldn’t put a competitive product on the floor. $20m for years 23-26 of an already productive big who excels defensively for a team looking to grow with young players as opposed to losing him next year to UFA. I don’t know everyone’s exact position on every FA but it’s weird for me to see people critical of the growth years of an up and comer only to switch threads to see demand for the decline years of an Evan Fournier at a slightly lower price tag.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
I mean you say you appreciate that they need to put a competitive product on the floor then go on to show why they shouldn’t put a competitive product on the floor. $20m for years 23-26 of an already productive big who excels defensively for a team looking to grow with young players as opposed to losing him next year to UFA. I don’t know everyone’s exact position on every FA but it’s weird for me to see people critical of the growth years of an up and comer only to switch threads to see demand for the decline years of an Evan Fournier at a slightly lower price tag.
I don't think you'll find me wanting to pay for Fournier's decline years (although it's certainly possible), but there's a real difference between paying for Fournier's skill (scoring efficiency and floor spreading at a reasonable volume) vs. Allen's skill (rebounding and rim protection). The latter, especially from centers, is just not all that expensive in 2021. I posted above that Allen has the 7th biggest contract for a center, both in terms of total value and AAV. It's actually 8th, as for some reason Spotrac counts Bam as a power forward. So, is he in the top 8 centers in the league? Top 12? Top 15? Does he have the potential to grow into that level?

Embiid
Jokic
Gobert
KAT
Ayton
Bam
Sabonis

Those 7 are miles ahead of him, both in potential and current production. Then there's Vucevic, Lopez, Capela, Wood, Valanciunas, Turner, Nurkic, Adams, Holmes, Porzingis, and on and on. I'm not saying everyone in the latter group is better than Allen but most of them are (hell, if both Horford and TL are healthy they might be better than Allen in 21/22). His age is a nice plus, but I just don't see an avenue for him being a much better player. Borderline top 10 is his ceiling, and I don't think that's worth overpaying for, even in a low tier market (at least not on a team that finished miles out of the playoff picture last year). Being in a bad market doesn't automatically make an overpay for an average starter a good deal.

*edit - completely forgot about Sabonis. Another guy miles ahead of Allen.
 
Last edited:

brendan f

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2019
267
Embiid
Jokic
Gobert
KAT
Ayton
Bam

Those 6 are miles ahead of him. Then there's Vucevic, Lopez, Capela, Wood, Valanciunas, Turner, Nurkic, Adams, Holmes, Porzingis, and on and on. I'm not saying everyone in the latter group is better than Allen but most of them are
Exactly, or at the very least they're in a comparable range. Deal is even more of a head-scratcher when you factor in they just drafted Mobley...to do what, play the 4? I don't get the plan.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I don't think you'll find me wanting to pay for Fournier's decline years (although it's certainly possible), but there's a real difference between paying for Fournier's skill (scoring efficiency and floor spreading at a reasonable volume) vs. Allen's skill (rebounding and rim protection). The latter, especially from centers, is just not all that expensive in 2021. I posted above that Allen has the 7th biggest contract for a center, both in terms of total value and AAV. It's actually 8th, as for some reason Spotrac counts Bam as a power forward. So, is he in the top 8 centers in the league? Top 12? Top 15? Does he have the potential to grow into that level?

Embiid
Jokic
Gobert
KAT
Ayton
Bam
Sabonis

Those 7 are miles ahead of him, both in potential and current production. Then there's Vucevic, Lopez, Capela, Wood, Valanciunas, Turner, Nurkic, Adams, Holmes, Porzingis, and on and on. I'm not saying everyone in the latter group is better than Allen but most of them are (hell, if both Horford and TL are healthy they might be better than Allen in 21/22). His age is a nice plus, but I just don't see an avenue for him being a much better player. Borderline top 10 is his ceiling, and I don't think that's worth overpaying for, even in a low tier market (at least not on a team that finished miles out of the playoff picture last year). Being in a bad market doesn't automatically make an overpay for an average starter a good deal.

*edit - completely forgot about Sabonis. Another guy miles ahead of Allen.
You missed part of my point. What is considered an overpay? If you blindly look at his $20m per for ages 23-26 you are paying for upside which based on his growth from 19-22 I would expect to be pretty good and certainly better than most of their second tier list above, possibly all of it over the next 4 years. $20m good? Hmmmm, would it be better for Cavs suits to be in their board room next summer with cap space and no Jarrett Allen while being proud about refusing to pay him the prior year?
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
You missed part of my point. What is considered an overpay? If you blindly look at his $20m per for ages 23-26 you are paying for upside which based on his growth from 19-22 I would expect to be pretty good and certainly better than most of their second tier list above, possibly all of it over the next 4 years. $20m good? Hmmmm, would it be better for Cavs suits to be in their board room next summer with cap space and no Jarrett Allen while being proud about refusing to pay him the prior year?
That's the issue, I don't see much more upside for him. He's basically a league average center (or slightly better) which is really nice for a 23 year old, but it's less valuable if he's basically already hit 90% of his potential.

All this is ignoring the issue that Brendan brings up, which is that they just drafted another center with the 3rd pick in the draft. This franchise is a clown show.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
That's the issue, I don't see much more upside for him. He's basically a league average center (or slightly better) which is really nice for a 23 year old, but it's less valuable if he's basically already hit 90% of his potential.

All this is ignoring the issue that Brendan brings up, which is that they just drafted another center with the 3rd pick in the draft. This franchise is a clown show.
I don’t feel that athletic bigs who are still filling into their body peak or close to peak at age 22. It is more likely that this profile of a player peaks during his 3rd NBA contract beginning at age 27 barring injury. Allen had made expected or greater than expected leaps in both his physicals and understanding of the game over the past 3 years. I don’t understand why you feel this growth will stunt in the years where it typically grows faster.

Mobley isn’t yet physically capable of playing the 5 against half the 5’s in the league. I actually love the pairing for Mobley’s early years before his body is developed. He is more of a perimeter face-up perimeter player with soon-to-be 3-point range.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
What aspect of his game might improve to the point where he's worthy of a contract for a top 10 center? Pretty much all the guys at the top have real offensive potential and production (either creating their own shots or can stretch the floor) beyond rim running. The exception is Gobert, who is on another level defensively. If Allen becomes an annual DPOY candidate, it's worth it.

I actually don't mind the Allen/Mobley pairing either, for a year or two, at reasonable money. The Cavs just signed up for five years of it, in which either their largest contract or player with the most potential will be playing out of position.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
I don’t feel that athletic bigs who are still filling into their body peak or close to peak at age 22. It is more likely that this profile of a player peaks during his 3rd NBA contract beginning at age 27 barring injury. Allen had made expected or greater than expected leaps in both his physicals and understanding of the game over the past 3 years. I don’t understand why you feel this growth will stunt in the years where it typically grows faster.

Mobley isn’t yet physically capable of playing the 5 against half the 5’s in the league. I actually love the pairing for Mobley’s early years before his body is developed. He is more of a perimeter face-up perimeter player with soon-to-be 3-point range.
I admittedly don’t watch a ton of Allen, but I never noticed him taking a leap. I feel like he went from an under the radar quality big to being recognized as being a quality big more so than he improved. What areas of his game do you see having improved? Statistically it doesn’t show up at all. His rate stats are basically flat the last two or three years after a slight improvement across the board following his rookie season. That’s all his rates, shooting, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, usage. They all look the same year over year. His impact stats show a similar lack of progression. I’m not saying that any of that is dispositive that he isn’t improving or couldn’t, but I am curious why you see significant upside left (beyond age).
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
What aspect of his game might improve to the point where he's worthy of a contract for a top 10 center? Pretty much all the guys at the top have real offensive potential and production (either creating their own shots or can stretch the floor) beyond rim running. The exception is Gobert, who is on another level defensively. If Allen becomes an annual DPOY candidate, it's worth it.

I actually don't mind the Allen/Mobley pairing either, for a year or two, at reasonable money. The Cavs just signed up for five years of it, in which either their largest contract or player with the most potential will be playing out of position.
They really didn’t sign up for 5-years of that pairing…..they signed up for 4 more years of control of Allen. If Mobley emerges as a future 5 in this league during that window you’ll have a tradeable asset as opposed to not. There is also plenty of doubt that forcing Mobley to defend the interior is the best use of his agility down the road but it certainly isn’t right now.

Allen is still 23……he will be filling into his body and has a reputation as a good study so slowing the game down further along with added strength should improve his overall game. All he would need is for health and moderate growth to be an arbitrary “Top-10 center” as those currently in their 30’s age out.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
This may not belong in the Williams thread, but I'm not sure where this 'the advanced metrics like [Allen's] D' stuff is coming from. He grades +0.9 defensively on DARKO, which is fine, but sort of meh for a big (not in the top 25 for a big). That's my own stat, but the two best public metrics (EPM and LEBRON) are also meh on him. EPM grades him as +0.5, which is again outside the top 25 among centers. LEBRON grades him at +0.7, which again is meh for a center.

I'm fine with the Allen deal if you think he has room to grow, but without material growth, that's an underwater contract imo.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
I don't care about the specific contracts for Jarrett Allen or even RWIII . However there is simply not enough information available to outsiders to accurately characterize a new contract's value. People doing so are making assumptions about team and league finances, geographic premiums as well as specific situations.

I get that we need takes because without it we don't have an opinion market but there are a lot of definitive statements being made about big deals where people aren't privvy to the crucial details. That should be acknowledged before we start arguing about who is right about valuation.

After almost two decades on this site, I am only certain of one thing - nobody who posts here can see the future. Other than that, all else is mostly lightly informed opinion.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I admittedly don’t watch a ton of Allen, but I never noticed him taking a leap. I feel like he went from an under the radar quality big to being recognized as being a quality big more so than he improved. What areas of his game do you see having improved? Statistically it doesn’t show up at all. His rate stats are basically flat the last two or three years after a slight improvement across the board following his rookie season. That’s all his rates, shooting, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, usage. They all look the same year over year. His impact stats show a similar lack of progression. I’m not saying that any of that is dispositive that he isn’t improving or couldn’t, but I am curious why you see significant upside left (beyond age).
He came into the league as an athletic wild rim-runner with zero knowledge of what he’s supposed to be doing on the floor. He went from a skinny shot blocker who struggled against physicality to pretty much being able to hold the block against physical starting 5’s which wasn’t the case at all as a rookie. Offensively he was lost while using his length, athleticism and energy to run the rim on PnR. He’s improved his face-up shooting eFG% from 32 to 44 to 49% in the last three years…..I’m assuming his baby jump hook that he’s developed is credited to that number.

Between age, increased strength/body upside, improving shooting which he has each year I see the normal good trajectory of a 23-yr old player. Then you also have the length and athleticism factor as he continually learns how to utilize it as his body grows.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,213
I like Jarrett Allen and agree there is upside still remaining. Where I struggle with that contract is you are betting on what I'd say is about a 10% or so outcome for him. He's a good defensive center, but not elite. Maybe he takes a step up defensively and becomes a top level help defender, but far from sure thing. He's solid offensively and very efficient, but we haven't seen a lot of reason to think he's a 18-20 point a game guy either and he can't really pass (so, even if he somehow takes a huge step up from what we've seen it isn't going to be transformative as he's really just a finisher). He's already a very good rebounder.

So if you put together improvement in the first two and continued very good rebounding you get to a guy who is a top-5 center, maybe even top 3. That is worth this contract for sure. But it also assumes a bunch of growth across his game, and unless you get that you're overpaying a top-10 center who is not elite at anything (but also not bad at anything).

Allen is a better player overall right now than TL, but I'd rather TL on his deal than Allen on his for sure---you have a chance TL is elite defensively and he is a more versatile offensive player thanks to the passing even if he's vastly less consistent. If you were, say, the Bucks you might prefer Allen's certainty but that isn't really where the Cavs (or Celtics) are....the lack of elite upside is an issue at that salary level
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,021
Imaginationland
They really didn’t sign up for 5-years of that pairing…..they signed up for 4 more years of control of Allen. If Mobley emerges as a future 5 in this league during that window you’ll have a tradeable asset as opposed to not. There is also plenty of doubt that forcing Mobley to defend the interior is the best use of his agility down the road but it certainly isn’t right now.

Allen is still 23……he will be filling into his body and has a reputation as a good study so slowing the game down further along with added strength should improve his overall game. All he would need is for health and moderate growth to be an arbitrary “Top-10 center” as those currently in their 30’s age out.
At the end of the day it depends on how you project him, which is a wait and see. One last note on those aging out, most of the league's good centers are still in their prime (or younger). Of the 7 above that I have far ahead of Allen now and forever, they are all in their 20s. Of the group after that, only Lopez is past 30. Anyone breaking into the top 10 in the next few years will have to earn it.