Timelord Injury Watch

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
He's a 72% free throw shooter. He can and should develop his shot, starting with a mid-range.
He might be, but we don't really know that.

65.6% for his career. He's at 72% this year in 67 attempts. If he were to miss his next 2, he dips below 70%.

He's made his last 11 and 20 of his last 21. Prior to that, he was shooting 61%, 28/46.

It's possible he regresses back to 65% or is even better than the 72% he's at right now.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,393
San Francisco
I just don't understand what opens up for the offense if Rob is taking midrange shots. Several people seem fixated on this, anyone care to explain?

I would much rather he work on developing one post move. Just a little hook shot or something to pose some type of threat when receiving a pass that isn't a lob. I don't personally see any reason to have him doing anything with the ball outside 5 feet besides passing.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,948
Cultural hub of the universe
I just don't understand what opens up for the offense if Rob is taking midrange shots. Several people seem fixated on this, anyone care to explain?

I would much rather he work on developing one post move. Just a little hook shot or something to pose some type of threat when receiving a pass that isn't a lob. I don't personally see any reason to have him doing anything with the ball outside 5 feet besides passing.
My guess it would mean the big needs to come out and contest, rather than laying back and clogging the lane.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,393
San Francisco
My guess it would mean the big needs to come out and contest, rather than laying back and clogging the lane.
Yeah, I just can't imagine what is being opened up here. Timelord gets the ball at the elbows, ok lets draw the big closer to him. Now what? If he's off the ball, he already has gravity with his lob threat, having him hang out in the midrange just seems to erase his greatest strength?
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,549
I just don't understand what opens up for the offense if Rob is taking midrange shots. Several people seem fixated on this, anyone care to explain?

I would much rather he work on developing one post move. Just a little hook shot or something to pose some type of threat when receiving a pass that isn't a lob. I don't personally see any reason to have him doing anything with the ball outside 5 feet besides passing.
If he could consistently hit from the free throw circle, you could not play zone against the Celtics
 

GB5

New Member
Aug 26, 2013
690
When Timelord came into the league, his offensive range was six inches from the basket. 4 years later his offensive range is..6 inches from the basket. He has gotten better at defensive rotations, and ever though his offensive stats have gotten better I am not sure his offensive game really has. Confidence and minutes have helped his numbers, not really skill development.
 

Koufax

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,946
He is a good passer with good court awareness. If he draws a big man out from under the basket to defend, others can cut to the basket without running into a crowd.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,672
Melrose, MA
I just don't understand what opens up for the offense if Rob is taking midrange shots. Several people seem fixated on this, anyone care to explain?

I would much rather he work on developing one post move. Just a little hook shot or something to pose some type of threat when receiving a pass that isn't a lob. I don't personally see any reason to have him doing anything with the ball outside 5 feet besides passing.
Sometimes he has the ball more than 5 feet from the basket and the only pass available to him is to reset the offense. A reliable shot would be helpful in those situations. A post move would also be helpful to him in certain situations that come up in games. Probably the post move would be more helpful, but the uncontested jumper might be the easier to add.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,310
Santa Monica
Yea, you want Rob to work on developing the jumper from the nail

Developing post moves on the block, with his back to the basket, would be helpful but is secondary to facing the hoop, in either shoot or pass attack mode from the FT line

He immediately becomes a 2-3 ZONE breaker from the nail. Not sure why IME hasn't put Horford into that role when the defense plays 2-3 against the C's?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,278
I'm curious if this is something that is actually required. Do players really need to extend their game to 10-16 feet before they can extend it to beyond the arc? What happens if he practices taking 3s and skips the midrange?
It is an easier shot to develop mechanically as it isn’t contested nearly as much as a mid-range shot would be (where mechanics could be affected) so muscle memory would be built. My guess would be that the mental aspect would be the greatest challenge as far as building confidence for a guy like TL who has always had good mechanics shooting face up even at A&M but was never allowed to do so in games based on his role in the offense back then. That passivity seems to have carried over as he simply isn’t an aggressive offensive player.


When Timelord came into the league, his offensive range was six inches from the basket. 4 years later his offensive range is..6 inches from the basket. He has gotten better at defensive rotations, and ever though his offensive stats have gotten better I am not sure his offensive game really has. Confidence and minutes have helped his numbers, not really skill development.
Yes and No. I think his issue in college was confidence related as he’s always shown the mechanics, rotation and release to be a good face-up shooter. At A&M teams played almost exclusively zone to combat him and Tyler Davis on the low block. Even though his FT% was horrific there you could see that it was primarily mental as it wasn’t like he was Kidd-Gilchrist trying to shot put the ball through the hoop. Is it work ethic or psychological struggles? I don’t know but the physical skill appears to be there for him to grow in this area.
 
Last edited:

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,163
Rob has to be pretty much untouchable at this point given his salary, right? I'd much rather give up draft capital or route Smart somewhere for assets than give him up. It's really, really useful for team-building when you have a guy that good making $12M for the next 4 (!!) years, particularly if/when the cap rises.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,672
Melrose, MA
Rob has to be pretty much untouchable at this point given his salary, right? I'd much rather give up draft capital or route Smart somewhere for assets than give him up. It's really, really useful for team-building when you have a guy that good making $12M for the next 4 (!!) years, particularly if/when the cap rises.
Yes - it is hard to envision a deal for Rob that returns equal or greater value back to the Celtics. I thought last night was one of his best games as a Celtic. He bodied up on Jokic at times in the 4th (something the C's usually don't ask him to do) and held his own, put up a 15-16 double-double with some assists, steals, and blocks, and appeared to be more fired up than he usually seems.

And who else in the league executes every element of this:
View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1492335944170708995?s=20&t=W0m1dipGp47yFINec2-GYw
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,785
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
Rob has to be pretty much untouchable at this point given his salary, right? I'd much rather give up draft capital or route Smart somewhere for assets than give him up. It's really, really useful for team-building when you have a guy that good making $12M for the next 4 (!!) years, particularly if/when the cap rises.
He’s untouchable for me.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,714
Great signing by Stevens, huge surplus value on that contract at the moment.

What does he get on the market right now? Capela 5/90 deal seems like the floor to me.
 

Attachments

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Rob has to be pretty much untouchable at this point given his salary, right? I'd much rather give up draft capital or route Smart somewhere for assets than give him up. It's really, really useful for team-building when you have a guy that good making $12M for the next 4 (!!) years, particularly if/when the cap rises.
Like any trade, depends on the return.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,163
Great signing by Stevens, huge surplus value on that contract at the moment.

What does he get on the market right now? Capela 5/90 deal seems like the floor to me.
Yeah, Myles Turner was 4/80, so I'd guess he gets 20-23M if he hit FA this summer. Brad killed it on that one.

Between TL, Jaylen's below-market deal, and Tatum not making all-NBA, the Celtics are positioned well to go into the tax without having it be overly burdensome the next two seasons.
 

ragnarok725

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2003
6,370
Somerville MA
It's worth remembering for the first 4 pages of this thread, the refrain was "great deal if he stays healthy". So far, so good, but durability is measured in seasons.

That said, with this new demonstrated level of play, the bet looks better than ever. If Williams really is a DPOY contender on that salary, it's obviously a massive steal. The only way he goes is with Horford and few other assets for a top 10 player.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,163
It's worth remembering for the first 4 pages of this thread, the refrain was "great deal if he stays healthy". So far, so good, but durability is measured in seasons.

That said, with this new demonstrated level of play, the bet looks better than ever. If Williams really is a DPOY contender on that salary, it's obviously a massive steal. The only way he goes is with Horford and few other assets for a top 10 player.
I think there was one other big question mark besides health: can he play 30 mins consistently without getting fatigued?

The answer is clearly yes, and he seems to have gotten better at conserving energy on both ends by not constantly jumping around.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,187
Imaginationland
Like any trade, depends on the return.
Trading TL would leave a pretty gaping hole at center, we'd basically only move him for a replacement. Assuming Embiid, Jokic and Bam are off the table, what about Gobert? Another report came out today about growing tension between Gobert and Mitchell:

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2022/02/12/another-report-of-growing-tension-between-gobert-mitchell-in-jazz-locker-room/

Maybe it results in Mitchell demanding out, but if he gives management a "me or him" talk there's a good chance Gobert is shipped off somewhere, especially if they go another year without getting out of the second round. He's expensive, 5 years older than TL and isn't as good defensively on the perimeter or as a passer, but he's still in his prime (leading the league in rebounds and TS% at 16 ppg, although worth noting that TL would be ahead of him in the latter if he played enough to qualify), he's far more durable and he's perhaps the best rim protector since Mutombo. 5 straight 1st team all-defense and 3 DPOYs, he's led a series of above average to great defenses in Utah despite the fact that he's really the only great defender in their rotation. I don't see their playoff failures on him, teams are able to exploit him in the postseason because there's only so much he can do to cover for everyone else.

TL and Horford works without having to throw in any additional contracts (not saying that'd be enough, but we wouldn't have to stretch to make it work under the cap). I still love his potential (and current production), but man am I afraid of his durability issues.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,278
I think there was one other big question mark besides health: can he play 30 mins consistently without getting fatigued?

The answer is clearly yes, and he seems to have gotten better at conserving energy on both ends by not constantly jumping around.
Remember early in the year when he was contributing to our slow starts by admittedly pacing himself? It seems like he’s now figured out his rotations, how/when he will be used, and is expanding energy appropriately based on this knowledge.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,224
CA
Trading TL would leave a pretty gaping hole at center, we'd basically only move him for a replacement. Assuming Embiid, Jokic and Bam are off the table, what about Gobert? Another report came out today about growing tension between Gobert and Mitchell:

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2022/02/12/another-report-of-growing-tension-between-gobert-mitchell-in-jazz-locker-room/

Maybe it results in Mitchell demanding out, but if he gives management a "me or him" talk there's a good chance Gobert is shipped off somewhere, especially if they go another year without getting out of the second round. He's expensive, 5 years older than TL and isn't as good defensively on the perimeter or as a passer, but he's still in his prime (leading the league in rebounds and TS% at 16 ppg, although worth noting that TL would be ahead of him in the latter if he played enough to qualify), he's far more durable and he's perhaps the best rim protector since Mutombo. 5 straight 1st team all-defense and 3 DPOYs, he's led a series of above average to great defenses in Utah despite the fact that he's really the only great defender in their rotation. I don't see their playoff failures on him, teams are able to exploit him in the postseason because there's only so much he can do to cover for everyone else.

TL and Horford works without having to throw in any additional contracts (not saying that'd be enough, but we wouldn't have to stretch to make it work under the cap). I still love his potential (and current production), but man am I afraid of his durability issues.
I would not do TimeLord for Gobert straight up at this point. I get the durability concerns and that Gobert is a big upgrade defensively, but Rob is so young, has improved so much, and is so cheap. Jazz would have to sweeten the pot for me.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,714
I would not do TimeLord for Gobert straight up at this point. I get the durability concerns and that Gobert is a big upgrade defensively, but Rob is so young, has improved so much, and is so cheap. Jazz would have to sweeten the pot for me.
While Rudy's D is insanely good, I wouldn't argue with you at the moment given Rob and his contract.

If given the choice, I'd prefer my max guys to be scoring wings like Tatum rather than guys like Rudy.
 

Attachments

Sep 1, 2019
170
I would not do TimeLord for Gobert straight up at this point.
Agree. More broadly, how many centers/big men in the league would you trade TL for right now, considering the blossoming superstar potential, young age, and incredible contract?

I love watching this guy play like no other Celtic in a long time, especially the way he times and controls blocks like a latter-day Russell. And his visionary passing.

Danny has taken a lot of grief here, most of it deserved, but he got this pick right (and then Brad wisely gambled to lock him up).
 
Last edited:

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
2,940
Berkeley, CA
I think there was one other big question mark besides health: can he play 30 mins consistently without getting fatigued?

The answer is clearly yes, and he seems to have gotten better at conserving energy on both ends by not constantly jumping around.
This stood out to me. I haven't seen the C's since the streak began and - thanks to EJ for the summaries - TL's play was a revelation yesterday. His body control has really advanced from the past. He was always baited into jumps and he seems to have figured out to stay grounded as long as possible. Also, he seems to have gotten used to the long minutes and not fighting fatigue anymore. Very impressive and that block and behind the back save are just incredible plays. Continues to be my favorite C to watch. Finally saw him lose the opening jump ball though.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,660
Great signing by Stevens, huge surplus value on that contract at the moment.

What does he get on the market right now? Capela 5/90 deal seems like the floor to me.
The Jarrett Allen deal probably. TL has been better than Allen was last year, but is also 2 years older with some injury concerns so it balances out.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,163
...
If given the choice, I'd prefer my max guys to be scoring wings like Tatum rather than guys like Rudy.
Yup, and trading for Rudy means you lose the opportunity to move the Al contract for a scoring wing/guard.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,948
Cultural hub of the universe
From BBref's weird pupu platter of stats, Robert is:

14th in Rebounds
5th in O Rebounds
19th in PER
7th in Win Shares
13th on Offensive WS
7th in Defensive WS
6th in WS/48
15th in BPM
4th in DBPM
1st in ORating!
2nd DRating!
5th on OReb %
3rd in Block %
18th in Triple doubles with 1.

He's a stat sheet stuffer if I've ever seen one.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,672
Melrose, MA
From BBref's weird pupu platter of stats, Robert is:

14th in Rebounds
5th in O Rebounds
19th in PER
7th in Win Shares
13th on Offensive WS
7th in Defensive WS
6th in WS/48
15th in BPM
4th in DBPM
1st in ORating!
2nd DRating!
5th on OReb %
3rd in Block %
18th in Triple doubles with 1.

He's a stat sheet stuffer if I've ever seen one.
Everything but points and threes.

Relatedly, Rob shows the good and the bad of PER. If you want to know at a glance whether a player is an efficient accumulator of stats, PER is your measure. If you want more of an assessment of actual player value in basketball games, then PER is not so good. There's no way on God's green earth that Rob is a top 20 player in this league, but he does put numbers up.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,948
Cultural hub of the universe
Everything but points and threes.

Relatedly, Rob shows the good and the bad of PER. If you want to know at a glance whether a player is an efficient accumulator of stats, PER is your measure. If you want more of an assessment of actual player value in basketball games, then PER is not so good. There's no way on God's green earth that Rob is a top 20 player in this league, but he does put numbers up.
I'd say that's true of not just PER but all these BBRef stats. Just thought it was crazy to see that he's 1st in their ORating and 2nd in DRating. MVP!!!
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,497
around the way
Advanced stats in general love Rob, the LARAPM is trending up fast too. Him, Smart, White, Al, and especially Tatum are all advanced stat studs.
I had to look at the picture to remember what LARAPM was. First glance, it looked like LARP, and I was imagining Rob at King Richard's fair dressed as a king's guard.
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,300
Lynn
I had to look at the picture to remember what LARAPM was. First glance, it looked like LARP, and I was imagining Rob at King Richard's fair dressed as a king's guard.
My phone autocorrected it to LARP four straight times, almost gave up.

From what we know about Rob, he may actually enjoy the fair.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,714
Advanced stats in general love Rob, the LARAPM is trending up fast too. Him, Smart, White, Al, and especially Tatum are all advanced stat studs.
Even JB, who used to be much lower compared to conventional wisdom in many of the advanced stats, seems to be coming around.

Not a surprise many of them have us in the title mix given how much they love our top 6.
 

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,300
Lynn
Even JB, who used to be much lower compared to conventional wisdom in many of the advanced stats, seems to be coming around.

Not a surprise many of them have us in the title mix given how much they love our top 6.
Yeah, when this is the lowest average graded player (Jaylen has more consistent grades, Rob has higher peaks and lower valleys) with advanced stats, you likely have a pretty damn good team. Obviously advanced stats aren’t everything, and Jaylen is almost definitely this teams second best player. Though I will say I think you can make an argument that Rob is more important to the team.
 

Attachments

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,310
Santa Monica
From BBref's weird pupu platter of stats, Robert is:

14th in Rebounds
5th in O Rebounds
19th in PER
7th in Win Shares
13th on Offensive WS
7th in Defensive WS
6th in WS/48
15th in BPM
4th in DBPM
1st in ORating!
2nd DRating!
5th on OReb %
3rd in Block %
18th in Triple doubles with 1.

He's a stat sheet stuffer if I've ever seen one.
The funny thing is he tips out numerous balls on offense and defense that doesn't get "stuffed onto a box score". PLUS he dissuades teams from attacking the rim and alters shots all over the floor

I'd say Rob has been IME's biggest win. He challenged TL early this season, Rob has stepped up since. In addition to that, IME has put TL in the best position to succeed by using another 5 to do the dirty work down low while letting him roam on D.

Rob will only continue to get better offensively as he gains confidence with his FT jumper, plays with a better ballhandler in White, and is thrown more lobs down low when the JAYs get doubled.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,574
Somewhere
The thing that jumps out about Williams’ highlights that aren’t as obvious in real time is that he’s learned to restrain himself. In the past he would always be a max effort guy, but now he’s learned to pace and use anticipation to make these awesome plays. Very promising.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,672
Melrose, MA
The thing that jumps out about Williams’ highlights that aren’t as obvious in real time is that he’s learned to restrain himself. In the past he would always be a max effort guy, but now he’s learned to pace and use anticipation to make these awesome plays. Very promising.
Both of those points tend to bode well for 1) his staying healthy and 2) him mainting value going forward.

IOW, the reasonable expectation of Rob’s floor is much higher now than it was when he signed his extension.

If the Celtics end up “losing” on that contract, it is more likely to be an incremental loss rather than a total one (e.g. something along the lines of ‘Rob delivers $30M on his $48M contract” rather than “Rob delivers $10M on the deal while missing 2.75 seasons.”
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,745
Advanced stats in general love Rob, the LARAPM is trending up fast too. Him, Smart, White, Al, and especially Tatum are all advanced stat studs.
When a team is beating other teams by 30 or so points, my guess is that advanced stats are going to be super happy.
The funny thing is he tips out numerous balls on offense and defense that doesn't get "stuffed onto a box score". PLUS he dissuades teams from attacking the rim and alters shots all over the floor

I'd say Rob has been IME's biggest win. He challenged TL early this season, Rob has stepped up since. In addition to that, IME has put TL in the best position to succeed by using another 5 to do the dirty work down low while letting him roam on D.

Rob will only continue to get better offensively as he gains confidence with his FT jumper, plays with a better ballhandler in White, and is thrown more lobs down low when the JAYs get doubled.
Can I suggest that maybe having 2 BIGZ out there has helped TL stay on the court? He's obviously capable but banging against centers every night can't be great on the body.

I'll also note that Ime's defense fits TL perfectly - allowing him (as Scal says) to kind of play "free safety" really anchors the defense as even when opposing offenses get a mismatch off a switch and try to blow by the bigger guy, they still have to beat TL at the rim.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,310
Santa Monica
Can I suggest that maybe having 2 BIGZ out there has helped TL stay on the court? He's obviously capable but banging against centers every night can't be great on the body.

I'll also note that Ime's defense fits TL perfectly - allowing him (as Scal says) to kind of play "free safety" really anchors the defense as even when opposing offenses get a mismatch off a switch and try to blow by the bigger guy, they still have to beat TL at the rim.
I think that's a pretty fair comment.

The banging in the paint against beef 5's would rob TL of some of his leaping ability. Stationed under the hoop against rim running wings is also physically abusive. That's why having a few 5s (like Theis to play next to Rob) isn't the worst way to fill out the roster.

Another ancillary benefit of "free safety Rob" is it permits our wing defenders to play tighter on the perimeter knowing that Rob will help if they get beat off the dribble.

If we could find a beef center that could drill Corner3s, then we'd really be on to something
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Since his splits are now even, thought I'd update his recent stretch.
First 24 games: .734/---/.619, 27.8 mpg, 9.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.7 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.2 TO, 1.8 PF
last 24 games: .731/.000/.788, 32.1 mpg, 10.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.8 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.3 TO, 2.5 PF

His early season struggles with rebounding and blocks have all but evaporated and he's obviously been included a bit more in the offense.

Now at .732/.000/.693, 30.0 mpg, 10.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.2 blocks, 0.9 steals, 1.2 TO, 2.1 PF for the season.

I'm not a huge fan of win shares but he's 7th in the league. Of course, TL being 7th is probably why I'm not a huge fan of win shares.

3rd in total Oreb, 3rd in blocks, 14th in RPG, 17th in total rebounds.

FWIW, 11.2 rebounds would be 7th and 2.8 blocks would be tied for 1st. 8.2 rebounds for a big playing 28 mpg is pretty pedestrian.
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
7,555
Maine
Now at .732/.000/.693, 30.0 mpg, 10.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.2 blocks, 0.9 steals, 1.2 TO, 2.1 PF for the season.
.000 3pt%
Would not bang

I asked awhile back but will ask again.
Now that the Jays, Smart and White look like long term "pillars" for this team.....

If there could only be one, and If you could make the call, would you rather see if you could get RW3 to begin developing a 3pt shot? Or would you push him to develop a 15 footer From baseline to baseline?

Keep in mind that a 3pt% next year might be well below 30% while a 15 footer might be @ 42%.
(of course the point would be for steady improvement until one was a consistent weapon. but NEXT YEAR those are your options)