Timelord Injury Watch

[bsj]

I am not the biggest Williams fan....so I hope you devotees are right.

This just seems premature.

EDIT- I was wrong. Bargain.

View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1428768452077146112

 

[Seels]

good contract if he's a starter

terrible one if he isn't

 

[Cellar-Door]

Seems reasonable.
He signs it because it's more than he'd get on the market right now if he has another injury plagued season.
Celtics sign it because they have limited ways to build out a roster, and if he stays relatively healthy and play 25MPG at the level he did last year he's worth more. If he can stretch that to 28-29M he's worth a lot more.

 

[bsj]

good contract if he's a starter

terrible one if he isn't

That money means, to me, they are committing to starting him and playing him ~30-35 min per game...if he can stay out of foul trouble

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

It's a good deal if he can stay healthy. It's also very moveable regardless. For me, contracts in the NBA are at the point where anything under $15mil for a good player is basically fine. It's the $20+++ range where you need to be damn sure you're getting a stud—those are the ones that need picks stapled to them in order to offload.

 

[Cellar-Door]

good contract if he's a starter

terrible one if he isn't

I think it's less starter than MPG. If he's gonna be a 15-18 MPG player it's bad, if he's going to be 24-29 MPG it could be good.

 

[RetractableRoof]

How does this work in terms of the Celtics trying to salary match in trades? Is this a help/hindrance in that regard?

 

[ifmanis5]

He just needs to stay on the floor. If he can do that he is elite. That said, I expect some amount of Load Management with his minutes which would be beneficial.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Seems reasonable.
He signs it because it's more than he'd get on the market right now if he has another injury plagued season.
Celtics sign it because they have limited ways to build out a roster, and if he stays relatively healthy and play 25MPG at the level he did last year he's worth more. If he can stretch that to 28-29M he's worth a lot more.

This sums up my thoughts. It’s a solid deal for both sides. It isn’t an albatross deal should TL be injury-plagued and carries enough upside for him to be a solid 20-25 mpg contributor for 60-70 games a year during this deal.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Higher than I probably would have liked - and hopefully some of that is incentives, as there are "easy to reach" incentives that definitely would help mitigate Cs risk - but as others have said not crippling as to the worst case scenario for the Cs.

Also, I think it's pretty clear TL is much better than a top-15 center when he plays. If he is able to play in 65 games this year, he would have signed for a lot more than that methinks.

Here's where their Drs earn their keep. If TL can play in 300 games over the next 5 years counting playoffs, that contract will be a steal.

 

[BigSoxFan]

4/54 isn't great value but there's some upside potential here. I'm good with this one. He may always be an injury liability but we now know he's a legit impact guy when healthy. That wasn't apparently this time last year.

 

[Seels]

I think it's less starter than MPG. If he's gonna be a 15-18 MPG player it's bad, if he's going to be 24-29 MPG it could be good.

Sure. I'll agree with that. Whether he's starting or not is pretty irrelevant. But if he can't get major minutes than paying him 13.5 seems wasteful.

 

[Devizier]

Cynical side of me says "another solid mid-level contract for salary matching". $13.5M seems like a reasonable AAV.

Here's the market for comparison:

Derrick Rose	PG	32	UFA	NYK	NYK	3	$43,562,189	$14,520,730
Doug McDermott	SF	29	UFA	IND	SAS	3	$42,000,000	$14,000,000
Josh Hart	SG	26	RFA	NOP	NOP	3	$37,920,000	$12,640,000
Kelly Oubre Jr.	SF	25	UFA	GSW	CHA	2	$25,000,000	$12,500,000
Kelly Olynyk	PF	30	UFA	HOU	DET	3	$37,195,122	$12,398,374
Devonte' Graham	PG	26	RFA	CHA	NOP	4	$47,300,000	$11,825,000
Richaun Holmes	C	27	UFA	SAC	SAC	4	$46,522,560	$11,630,640

 

[Cellar-Door]

I will say, it isn't THAT much money.
It's about 1M a year more than Olynyk just signed for.

Jarrett Allen just got 4/100, his major advantage over TL is that he plays 29 MPG (a big advantage).

It's also similar to the contract Holmes just got (Holmes is 4 years older). Holmes also plays 28-29 MPG, but also isn't as good as TL in those minutes.

To me TL basically has to play 22-24 MPG at 85-90% of what he played his 19MPG last year at to be worth this deal. Anything over that and it's a positive deal, if he starts playing 28-30 MPG at anything approaching his current per minute performance it's one of the better deals for a big in the league.

 

[Manramsclan]

I don't know much about cap implications when it comes to NBA salaries, and what is a good deal in a bad deal.
What I do like about this is that there will be a core of Celtics that will be around for the next 4 years that will be playing and practicing together and have a lot of talent, instead of chasing two superstars and pairing them with a bunch of guys.

Hopefully we will see some great team basketball with Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Williams locked up for the next 3 years along with Nesmith. That's a really nice interesting core.

 

[lexrageorge]

One of the issues the roster did have was too few "mid-range" contracts outside of Smart. It wasn't that long ago they had Horford and Hayward at the max, Kyrie for the DV max, the J's on their rookie deals, and a bunch of min salary players. And those mid-range contracts make it easier to match salary in a trade.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

This is perfectly fine. It’s very movable in terms of dollars and teams are always on the hunt for even just decent big men, so they should have no trouble moving on from RWill if they need to open up space or if better options present themselves.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

This is an extension that kicks in after 2021-22, correct? So they have got him for 5 years at a total of $58M.

If he stays healthy, that is a steal. If he continues his injury prone ways, it's a nice piece of matching salary.

If not for his health issues, I'd be making the argument that he could be the 3rd star (along with the Jays).

I would not rather have Kelly Olynyk at slightly lower money.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Lots of risk with this contract given he could never pan out. The people saying it's a tradeable deal: if his injury issues keep going, why would anyone want him on that contract and if he's really good why are we trading him in the first place given the deal would have a lot of value for the level of performance?

 

[radsoxfan]

To chime in, this is all about health. If he plays most of the season he has proven he is easily worth this contract (or more).

As for the cap, salary matching purposes etc…. Who knows what will happen. Barring major injury this should be a very movable deal.

They know far more about his health than us, so that part is a black box. Let’s hope they have a different doc weigh in than the one who cleared the Kemba deal though!

 

[Fishy1]

Lots of risk with this contract given he could never pan out. The people saying it's a tradeable deal: if his injury issues keep going, why would anyone want him on that contract and if he's really good why are we trading him in the first place given the deal would have a lot of value for the level of performance?

Well, bad teams looking to tank often don't want to take back a good player.

Has that changed that much with the new lottery rules?

 

[radsoxfan]

Lots of risk with this contract given he could never pan out. The people saying it's a tradeable deal: if his injury issues keep going, why would anyone want him on that contract and if he's really good why are we trading him in the first place given the deal would have a lot of value for the level of performance?

Perhaps semantics, but I don’t think there is a big risk of him not “panning out”. I’d argue he has shown enough to prove he is very good when he plays.

Obviously the health is a concern, but timelord is more than a lottery ticket. The dude is good.

 

[bankshot1]

If TL stays/plays healthy he's a 30 minute shot-blocking rim protecting windmill and its a great signing.

TL stay well.

 

[Ale Xander]

Like this deal a lot but mainly because I like RW. Id he stays healthy and out of foul trouble, it can be a really good deal. If he gets hurt, than it’s a negative, but it’s not an albatross.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Perhaps semantics, but I don’t think there is a big risk of him not “panning out”. I’d argue he has shown enough to prove he is very good when he plays.

Obviously the health is a concern, but timelord is more than a lottery ticket. The dude is good.

Yes. And while he may have freakish athleticism, there is more to his game than just that.

 

[Rustjive]

I don't know much about cap implications when it comes to NBA salaries, and what is a good deal in a bad deal.

The nature of the NBA salary cap means that the immediate and short-term implications of the salary cap almost nothing. In addition, Timelord is extremely boom/bust - if he's healthy it's going to be a good deal, if he isn't, then it's bad. That's about all it boils down to.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Perhaps semantics, but I don’t think there is a big risk of him not “panning out”. I’d argue he has shown enough to prove he is very good when he plays.

Obviously the health is a concern, but timelord is more than a lottery ticket. The dude is good.

The whole key is his health. If he can't stay on the floor, that's a bad contract.

 

[bigq]

Please stay healthy, please stay healthy, please stay healthy.

 

[chilidawg]

Let's go!!

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s-oPirTfug

 

[JM3]

At least I won that argument where I said he would never take 3/$27m or whatever?

Seems fine. Lettuce just hope for health & prosperity.

 

[scottyno]

Close to half a max extension to play close to half a season, sounds about right

 

[Jimbodandy]

Perhaps semantics, but I don’t think there is a big risk of him not “panning out”. I’d argue he has shown enough to prove he is very good when he plays.

Obviously the health is a concern, but timelord is more than a lottery ticket. The dude is good.

Exactly. It's fair to question whether he can stay on the court. There's a gamble there with this deal. But there's no question that healthy TL is worth more than this deal. I'll take it.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

All contracts have some element of risk in both directions.

Other posters have covered the downside risk - his health is clearly a concern and even if he gets on the floor, he may not play well - so let's focus on the upside. In his three seasons the production Williams has shown is in line (note I am not suggesting they are similar players - just similar levels of production when on the floor...and I get that last part is key because every Time Lord discussion starts with the assumption "if healthy" so while his injury history is a factor, I think it safe to say most here are aware of the risk) with players like Jarret Allen and Jusuf Nurkic for example.

As was noted upthread, Williams should not be paid as much as Allen but if he can approach that level of production, what is characterized as a bad deal for the C's quickly becomes a steal for them. If I were worried about one party really costing themselves here, it would be Time Lord and not the club.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

As was noted upthread, Williams should not be paid as much as Allen but if he can approach that level of production, what is characterized as a bad deal for the C's quickly becomes a steal for them. If I were worried about one party really costing themselves here, it would be Time Lord and not the club.

It should be noted that, health permitting, he'll surpass Allen. Better shotblocker, better passer, steals the ball more than the vast majority of bigs. His health is a serious concern and should not be dismissed. But his talent shouldn't be dismissed, either, and he's made great strides in relatively few minutes.

 

[Tony C]

Lots of risk with this contract given he could never pan out. The people saying it's a tradeable deal: if his injury issues keep going, why would anyone want him on that contract and if he's really good why are we trading him in the first place given the deal would have a lot of value for the level of performance?

Lots of risk for TL, too. This could easily be seen as a bargain IF…

 

[bakahump]

For at least a year you can load manage Rob (and Al) quite well. Al and TL (Tal?) form a pretty competent "Modern NBA 5". Both bring a little different skills and both will never be Embiid killers. But a Combined 15-20 Rebounds and 20- 25 ish points isnt outrageous. Mix in that both guys screen and pass well and can (or at least could in Als case) play passible perimeter defense for 3-5 seconds and decent interior D makes them pretty Strong in the middle.
Kanter, Bruno and Kornet are decent guys at 10-15.

If Bruno can develop maybe he is the (more similar then Al) platoon partner with TL in 22 and beyond.

All of course assuming that they all stick around.

I would love to see how TL would do against Embiid given the challenge. If Bill was 10-20 years younger he could coach up TL on how a springy 6'9 dude should defend a behemoth Philly center.

 

[nighthob]

That money means, to me, they are committing to starting him and playing him ~30-35 min per game...if he can stay out of foul trouble

There is probably no way to play him that much without breaking him. But there are always centers available so even in the post-Horford years they should be OK. This is a much more reasonable deal than some of the other guys at his level are getting.

 

[Cellar-Door]

There is probably no way to play him that much without breaking him. But there are always centers available so even in the post-Horford years they should be OK. This is a much more reasonable deal than some of the other guys at his level are getting.

Also, centers don't play 35MPG anymore. Jokic came close last year, and Bam and KAT got up to 33 and change.
Gobert was around 30, Turner 31, Valanciunas 28, Allen and Ayton 29/30, Embiid 31, Nurkic 24, Noel 24, Lopez 27, Holmes 29.

 

[sezwho]

Also, centers don't play 35MPG anymore. Jokic came close last year, and Bam and KAT got up to 33 and change.
Gobert was around 30, Turner 31, Valanciunas 28, Allen and Ayton 29/30, Embiid 31, Nurkic 24, Noel 24, Lopez 27, Holmes 29.

All about Lord Management

 

[JakeRae]

This is a really good deal. I’d be shocked if he couldn’t have gotten at least full MLE money even after an injury plagued season based on the upside he’s already shown (excluding catastrophic injuries). Holmes and Allen are decent comps for the quality of player Williams is today, but he’s still actively learning to contribute on both ends and has a ton of upside left.

In terms of trade flexibility, this has very little impact other than that Williams could be extraordinarily valuable by the deadline (but if he is he probably won’t get traded). His salary this year doesn’t change and it’s extremely unlikely that he or Smart are going out the door in a trade. I feel like a broken record repeating this, but if we are trading for a star, it’s going to be a Horford, young players or filler, and all of our first round picks trade. Horford is the guy on the roster who is both usable as matching salary and isn’t part of our future.

 

[Spelunker]

At least I won that argument where I said he would never take 3/$27m or whatever?

Seems fine. Lettuce just hope for health & prosperity.

Especially now that he's getting that cheddar.

 

[128]

Also, centers don't play 35MPG anymore. Jokic came close last year, and Bam and KAT got up to 33 and change.
Gobert was around 30, Turner 31, Valanciunas 28, Allen and Ayton 29/30, Embiid 31, Nurkic 24, Noel 24, Lopez 27, Holmes 29.

That's a fascinating stat. I was blissfully unaware that starting centers' averages had dipped so low. It doesn't seem outrageous to hope for 28 mpg from Time Lord.

 

[SoxJox]

I see this as a high-ceiling sign and am very happy with it. Although Brad has moved out of the HC position, from that experience he has a very clear understanding of the current roster and their potential, and is likely factoring that into his general and composite calculations going forward. I'm all in on this one.

 

[radsoxfan]

The whole key is his health. If he can't stay on the floor, that's a bad contract.

I think we all agree if he is injured for the majority of the contract it won't be a good one. My point was that when you said he may not "pan out", I got the sense you were implying 2 variables (both health and quality).

I would say there is only one variable really. If he plays and is healthy, I dont doubt he will be good. We don't know how good and how much he could potentially exceed the contract, but he is already good enough to be worth it if healthy.

He's not a young athletic lotto ticket anymore. He already hit.

 

[Euclis20]

One interesting quirk for TL, he's exceptionally good at blocking 3 point shots. Per possession and excluding guys who played less than 150 minutes, he was 3rd in blocked 3s each of the last two years (both times behind Boucher and Thybulle).

 

[BringBackMo]

Lots of risk with this contract given he could never pan out. The people saying it's a tradeable deal: if his injury issues keep going, why would anyone want him on that contract and if he's really good why are we trading him in the first place given the deal would have a lot of value for the level of performance?

He has clearly already panned out. It’s simply a matter of whether he can stay healthy. The Celtics are betting on his health not on whether he will develop as a player. He has already done that.

 

[Big McCorkle]

One interesting quirk for TL, he's exceptionally good at blocking 3 point shots. Per possession and excluding guys who played less than 150 minutes, he was 3rd in blocked 3s each of the last two years (both times behind Boucher and Thybulle).

He had that play in the playoffs where he completely stonewalled a drive attempt by James Harden, forced him to reset at the perimeter, and then blocked his stepback 3.

If he can actually manage to stay healthy, this contract is an absolute steal. If.

 

[Everetts Dinosaurs]

Timelord is my favorite player to watch when he's on the court. I love love love that he's locked up.

 

[TripleOT]

I’m a big TL guy, and love this signing. Load manage TL and AL, and let Kanter fill in whatever minutes remain.

If TL could consistently play five minutes in each of the first three quarters, and the last 5-7 minutes of the game, for 20-22 minutes a night, he could have a huge impact on this team becoming a contender.

 

[benhogan]

At least I won that argument where I said he would never take 3/$27m or whatever?

Seems fine. Lettuce just hope for health & prosperity.

@lovegtm pretty much nailed it in March

Yeah, what I'd expect in the summer:

- TL extended at ~4/50

I was definitely in the low-ball him camp (for '22 FA/cap hold purposes), but after the Marcus signing paying the going rate for TL makes all the sense in the world. Plus they know his medicals and will load manage the shit out of Rob

Some people around here were pretty down on TL the first few months last season, nice to see him turn it around.