Top Players under 25

Sam Ray Not

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Jordan Poole's last 16 games: .364/.313/.865, 11.8 points, 2.5 assists, 1.7 rebounds in 22.7 mpg.


He had a hot stretch and that hot stretch is over. Yet his stats are still heavily inflated by that hot stretch.

I'd take Herro and Trent all day over Poole without thinking twice.
Always better to look at the full season sample than to parse it into smaller buckets. I allowed that his crazy numbers through 300 minutes were likely not anywhere close to real, but also suspected he'd regress into the still-pretty-impressive range he's in now. I gave the trendlines of his rookie year, the reports out of training camp, and his stellar G-league as evidence of a 20-21 year old who was hitting a new baseline after a rough first few months in his rookie season over a year ago.

All three players are wicked young, so could fluctuate pretty wildly over the next couple years, but Trent's lack of game outside of spotting up for threes concerns me a bit. He has shown some defensive chops (probably more than Poole?) so could still settle into a "poor man's Klay" archetype, but I'm more intrigued by the ability to create off the dribble of Herro and Poole.

A couple in the same general age range and archetype who intrigue me: Kevin Porter Jr. and Talen Horton-Tucker. Though if we're docking Herro for character issues, not sure what we do about KPJ....
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jordan Poole's last 16 games: .364/.313/.865, 11.8 points, 2.5 assists, 1.7 rebounds in 22.7 mpg.


He had a hot stretch and that hot stretch is over. Yet his stats are still heavily inflated by that hot stretch.

I'd take Herro and Trent all day over Poole without thinking twice.
The optimist would say that Poole is in the midst of a cold stretch which is heavily deflating his stats. The realist would say that his “hot” and “cold” streaks made for his averages.

These numbers are still quite the small sample. Since I don’t watch a ton of Warriors I’d want to see data on his shot selection to have a better idea of his recent issues but the film would be most vital in an offense like that where shooting relies on flow.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The optimist would say that Poole is in the midst of a cold stretch which is heavily deflating his stats. The realist would say that his “hot” and “cold” streaks made for his averages.

These numbers are still quite the small sample. Since I don’t watch a ton of Warriors I’d want to see data on his shot selection to have a better idea of his recent issues but the film would be most vital in an offense like that where shooting relies on flow.
Your 1st line is true, but the problem is your 2nd line. The sample size is still very small so it's possible the bad hasn't balanced out the good yet, or the good hasn't balanced out the bad.

I'm still taking Trent Jr all day over him because Trent has a legit sample size and plays 31.1 mpg as opposed to 18.2. It's almost like using Per 36 to compare these players is very problematic.

Or to put it another way: Poole has played 692 minutes this year. Trent JR has played 1680.
 

Sam Ray Not

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It's almost like using Per 36 to compare these players is very problematic.
I don't think it's particularly problematic if we're comparing young, fit guys with no issues with stamina or foul trouble (and if we're talking reasonably big minute samples, as opposed to say 0-10 mpg). The "Millsap Doctrine" tends to apply better than people think. If anything, for young shooters/playmakers, I'd think getting extended run allows them to get in better rhythm than sporadic minutes. Anecdotally, Poole has seemed to play much better on a per minute basis in 25+ minutes than in ~15 minutes. Hard to prove this, of course, since correlation ≠ cause, and young players often get more minutes for playing well, as opposed to the other way around.

You could argue that more minutes means the coach trusts a player more so he must be better, but that risks being some combo of begging the question and appealing to authority. It also ignores the specific team situation players are in. Trent has enjoyed big minutes this season in large part due to the absence of McCollum for a long stretch in Portland, and the absence of Lowry/VanVleet in Toronto. Last night, with Lowry/FVV both healthy for the first time in ages, Trent saw the floor for 14 minutes (and was awful in those minutes, despite the dubious "advantage" of playing less).
 
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slamminsammya

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Your 1st line is true, but the problem is your 2nd line. The sample size is still very small so it's possible the bad hasn't balanced out the good yet, or the good hasn't balanced out the bad.

I'm still taking Trent Jr all day over him because Trent has a legit sample size and plays 31.1 mpg as opposed to 18.2. It's almost like using Per 36 to compare these players is very problematic.

Or to put it another way: Poole has played 692 minutes this year. Trent JR has played 1680.
He's shooting 89% on free throws this year which is pretty damned good. Id guess the odds are better he's a legit shooter going through a cold streak than that he is a shit shooter who got hot for a few weeks.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He's shooting 89% on free throws this year which is pretty damned good. Id guess the odds are better he's a legit shooter going through a cold streak than that he is a shit shooter who got hot for a few weeks.
Maybe, but he was pretty horrific last year too. Granted, he was a rookie and players improve. Outside of those 7 games, he is shooting .318 from 3 this year. He shot .279 from 3 last year. I think it's fair to question his accuracy.

He's obviously not a .311 shooter but given the rest of his game, a .353 shooter isn't that great either. Those 7 games, 23-52, .442. The other 98 games, 118/403, .293. HIs career, .310.

Again, do you take him over Gary Trent Jr?
 

slamminsammya

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Maybe, but he was pretty horrific last year too. Granted, he was a rookie and players improve. Outside of those 7 games, he is shooting .318 from 3 this year. He shot .279 from 3 last year. I think it's fair to question his accuracy.

He's obviously not a .311 shooter but given the rest of his game, a .353 shooter isn't that great either. Those 7 games, 23-52, .442. The other 98 games, 118/403, .293. HIs career, .310.

Again, do you take him over Gary Trent Jr?
I am simply calling you out for Eric Van'ing this one, I don't really care about a comparison with Gary Trent.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I am simply calling you out for Eric Van'ing this one, I don't really care about a comparison with Gary Trent.
How is taking the bigger sample size Eric Vaning something? SRN is EVing.

The fact he shot piss poor from 3 last year is impacting my opinion.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I guess ‘tis better to EV than to Hughes2.50? ;-P

Seriously, I get the concerns about last season, but if we’re parsing samples, it seems more logical to me to downplay results from an age 20 season over a year ago when he had a totally immature body and game (esp. given an extreme upward trend at the end of that season) than to downplay nearly half of his 700 minute sample this season on grounds that it was a “hot streak.”

As if on cue, Anthony Slater at the Athletic took a deep dive into the Poole today — the good, the bad, and the TBD — for anyone interested...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/2472417/2021/04/22/how-jordan-poole-became-an-emerging-part-of-warriors-future-his-answer-to-everything-is-more-work/?amp
 
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nighthob

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I am simply calling you out for Eric Van'ing this one, I don't really care about a comparison with Gary Trent.
He isn't Eric Vanning it, EVing it would be looking at the seven game sample and ignoring the rest of the track record.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How is taking the bigger sample size Eric Vaning something? SRN is EVing.

The fact he shot piss poor from 3 last year is impacting my opinion.
You also need to factor in the dysfunctional offense the Warriors had with so many non-regular rotation players getting major minutes. That is suicide for a shooter without any rhythm in the offense.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I guess ‘tis better to EV than to Hughes2.50? ;-P

Seriously, I get the concerns about last season, but if we’re parsing samples, it seems more logical to me to downplay results from an age 20 season over a year ago when he had a totally immature body and game (esp. given an extreme upward trend at the end of that season) than to downplay nearly half of his 700 minute sample this season on grounds that it was a “hot streak.”

Fwiw, Anthony Slater at the Athletic took a deep dive into the Poole today — the good, the bad, and the TBD — for anyone interested...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theathletic.com/2472417/2021/04/22/how-jordan-poole-became-an-emerging-part-of-warriors-future-his-answer-to-everything-is-more-work/?amp

He's young so he's going to improve regardless but the fact it's half his 700 minute sample is my point. 350 minutes doesn't tell you anything. Just like the 350 minutes I pointed to don't either. Nor does last year because he was a rookie. It's almost like we don't know either way.

But we all have opinions and I'm guessing he finishes the year shooting worse than .429/.353/.890. He may actually get to that point some day though. I mean, I'd possibly take him over half the players on the Celtics. I just think Trent Jr is much further along and a far safer bet.
 

mauf

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Rather than rank them, I'd give them tiers. I'm sure people will disagree with a lot of it but that's fine. I think the players in the tiers are pretty interchangeable for the most part. Some if it is obviously based on potential but I'm not counting guys who aren't producing right now.

Tier 1
Tatum
Ball
Mitchell
Doncic
Zion
SGA (fight me)

Tier 2
Ben Simmons
Bam
Young
Collins
Jaylen Brown
Sabonis
Booker
Jamal Murray
Ja Morant
Ingram
Fox



Tier 3
Herro
Hunter
RJ Barrett
Lauri
OG
Sexton
Garland
Ayton
Gary Trent
Dejounte Murray
James Wiseman (don't know where to rank)
Anthon Edwards (don't know where to rank)
JJJ
Lonzo
Haliburton




Everyone else:
Monk
PJ Washington
Coby White
Wendall Carter Jr
Patrick Williams
Myles Turner
Hachimura
Thomas Bryant
Jarrett Allen
Mikal Bridges
Cameron Johnson
Michael Porter
Lonnie Walker
Keldon Johnson
Time Lord
Jalen Brunson
Clarke
Bane
Melton
Maledon
Bagley
Beasley
DAR



I would have guessed Brown was in the top 20 players under 25. He's anywhere from 7 to 17. I don't think he's all that much better than Ingram, Fox, Murray, Ja. I could see Edwards and Wiseman passing him too, but by the time they do that... Brown will no longer be under 25. Tatum would fall anywhere from 1-6, but on most list the top 3.

Do people disagree on my ranking of Brown?
Late to the party, but thanks for putting this together.

Booker belongs in the top tier — this season has put to rest any notion that he couldn’t be more than a volume scorer on a bad team. Right now, he might even be the 2nd best player on the list (after Doncic), though there are a few others I’d rather have, including Tatum.

Love LaMelo in the top tier. If we did this list like the old Bill Simmons trade rankings, I’d have LaMelo second only to Doncic. And I’m not sure the Hornets would do that trade (but they would consider it, which the Mavs would not).
 

Cesar Crespo

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I've been following Moses Brown since the C's game.

Last 23 games: 10.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 0.8 steals, 0.1 assist on .534/-/.650 shooting in 25.7 mpg.

He's had an interesting journey as a player and was rewarded with an actual NBA contract about a month ago. His assist rate % this year is 1.2%. He gets to the line at a pretty healthy rate too. 21.5 years of age, 7'2, 245 lbs. 7'3.5 wing span, 9'3 standing reach.
 

Kliq

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Michael Porter Jr. has been lighting it up lately for Denver and will be put in an interesting role with Murray out. He gets a huge boost playing with Jokic, but post-ASG he is averaging 21-8 and shooting 57% from the field and 44% from the three. Offensive rating of 132. He is still a bad defender, but he is a really special offensive player who might be making a leap.
 

Devizier

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I like that we're making Eric Van into a verb. We need to truncate it into a snappy portmanteau though. I thought about EVan but someone else could do better, I'm sure.
 

the moops

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Tier 1 has gotta be just Zion and Doncic. Nobody else under 25 comes close to their future value paired with their current production. And honestly, there is a pretty big dropoff from that to tier 2.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Jordan Poole has put together a pretty decent 3 game stretch. When a player goes on a stretch for like 6 or 7 games, it doesn't really mean much. When they do it again, it does.

I'm not sure how good he'll be, but Quinn Cook and Jordan Bell he is not.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Jordan Poole has put together a pretty decent 3 game stretch. When a player goes on a stretch for like 6 or 7 games, it doesn't really mean much. When they do it again, it does.

I'm not sure how good he'll be, but Quinn Cook and Jordan Bell he is not.
Poole’s last two games, against the top two teams in the association:

40 pts
12-21 fg
7-16 3fg
9-9 ft
Zero turnovers
+11

Warriors win both games, despite Steph being epically cold from 3 — in large part thanks to Poole’s efforts. He gets some great looks with Steph on the floor due to Steph’s gravity, but more encouraging is that he’s also now the de facto backup PG when Steph sits, and has been acquitting himself admirably in that role. Leads are no longer instantly evaporating. Night and day from the Brad Wanamaker experience.

On the season, per 36 (930 total minutes)

21.6 pts on .571 ts (.877 ft, .346 3fg)
3.3 reb
3.6 ast
1.8 tov
 

Sam Ray Not

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To add a little flavor to Poole’s numbers: does Gary Trent Jr. have this move in his bag?

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/DrewShiller/status/1392874505941438465

Meanwhile, in the “everything old is new again” department:, old friend Jordan Bell (now a ripe old 26) is rejoining the Warriors this week. Ws have been somehow kicking ass the last couple weeks with a center rotation of 6-6 Draymond and made-of-glass Looney, but they’re going to need another big body to avoid getting ground into fine paste in a playoff series (if they make it out of the play-in). Hopefully Bell still remembers the Kerr playbook...
 

Sam Ray Not

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I’d put Zion with them (with potential to be tier 1. 27 points on 61% shooting is absurd). Ja and Jaylen tier 3?
Yeah, tier 2 could be more than just two guys. My only real point was Luka and Tatum should be on their own tier (and that Poole is good).
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Joking aside, recent drafts have produced some phenomenal players:

2017: Tatum, Mitchell, Bam
2018: Luka, Trae
2019: Zion, Morant
2020: still early but LaMelo and Edwards have shown some pop

The influx of talent is helping keep the league interesting despite some headwinds like a terrible review system and infuriating officiating.
 

Kliq

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Two players that were good stats/bad team guys up until this season have been very impressive in the playoffs.

Devin Booker is the best shot-maker in the NBA. Steph is the best shooter and nobody has his other-worldly ability to make threes at such a high volume. But not even Curry has the kind of diversity and array of shot types that he can make against good defense. Booker has everything, from complicated step-backs from three, to floaters in the paint, to stop-and-pop mid-range shots, to a glorious bank shot that you just don't see anymore. He doesn't have the size or athleticism of a guy like Tatum, but he has a certain type of skill when it comes to making different types of shots that nobody else in the NBA can match. Durant is probably the closest but even he doesn't have the array that Booker possesses. Booker has the scoring game of a great 80s scorer, like Bird, Iceman or Bernard King. He shoots a lot of threes and still plays a modern game, but he has a lot of lost-art skills as well.

Trae Young has demonstrated a command of the game and an understanding of when to push the ball, when to slow it down, when to look for his own shot and when to get his teammates involved. He has demonstrated a level of maturity so far in the playoffs against a good, disciplined defensive team and has easily been the best player in the series. Coming out of Oklahoma, it was easy to label Trae as a the shameless, undersized gunner who put up big stats but his team didn't win. That really wasn't an accurate depiction of him, he is a very unselfish player that sees the floor brilliantly and can make passes all over the floor to set up teammates. There are a lot of scoring PGs in the NBA today, but out of all of them I think Trae is one of the most natural playmakers. I think I'd only rate CP3, Doncic, LeBron and maybe Harden as superior playmakers. He's always going to be a liability on defense, but he is an incredibly gifted offensive player who has shined so far.

Also, Trae is just a tremendous villain. He plays with a swagger and has a flair for the moment and enjoys silencing crowds. He also has probably the best face in the history of basketball when it comes to antagonistic mugging, it's just world class. Him being slight of frame is also helpful, it makes the average NBA fan feel like they might be able to beat his ass, which is not the case for someone like LeBron or Embiid. I love his confidence in this New York series and you can tell his teammates got his back and enjoy playing with someone so confident.
 

Sam Ray Not

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JP3 preseason debut: 22 minutes, 30 pts on 10-17 fg, 5 ast, 5 reb, 1 stl, 2 blk, 0 tov, +21

Anyone who has been following him over the last year is not surprised. Snatch him up for your Fantasy Team if it's not too late. (And no, there are not 100 players under 25 you'd rather have. I'm not sure there are 20).
 

Cesar Crespo

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JP3 preseason debut: 22 minutes, 30 pts on 10-17 fg, 5 ast, 5 reb, 1 stl, 2 blk, 0 tov, +21

Anyone who has been following him over the last year is not surprised. Snatch him up for your Fantasy Team if it's not too late. (And no, there are not 100 players under 25 you'd rather have. I'm not sure there are 20).
Definitely 20. Definitely not 100. Probably not 50. This doesn't include anyone from the incoming rookie class either, though. Even if you disagree with some on the list, the list is 36 long and I left half the OKC roster off because I don't know how to judge them. Everyone would take 20 players over Jordan Poole. This isn't even a shot at Poole. Just a glimpse of how deep the under 25 class is for the NBA.

Wiseman
Edwards
LaMelo Ball
Zion
Haliburton
RJ Barrett
Morant
Jaren Jackson Jr
Tyler Hero
Darius Garland
Luka Doncic
Trae Young
Jayson Tatum
Collin Sexton
Michael Porter Jr
SGA
Jonathan Isaac
Miles Bridges
Deandre Ayton
Jarrett Allen
Coby White
Gary Trent Jr
Hamidou Daillo
Jamal Murray
Lauri Markkanen
NAW
Brandon Ingram
DeAndre Hunter
De'Aaron Fox
Lonzo Ball
John Collins
Thomas Bryant
OG Anunoby
Bam Adebayo
Jaylen Brown (for 19 more days)
Malik Beasley
Devin Booker (still...)
 

Sam Ray Not

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Definitely 20. Definitely not 100. Probably not 50. This doesn't include anyone from the incoming rookie class either, though. Even if you disagree with some on the list, the list is 36 long and I left half the OKC roster off because I don't know how to judge them. Everyone would take 20 players over Jordan Poole. This isn't even a shot at Poole. Just a glimpse of how deep the under 25 class is for the NBA.

Wiseman
Edwards
LaMelo Ball
Zion
Haliburton
RJ Barrett
Morant
Jaren Jackson Jr
Tyler Hero
Darius Garland
Luka Doncic
Trae Young
Jayson Tatum
Collin Sexton
Michael Porter Jr
SGA
Jonathan Isaac
Miles Bridges
Deandre Ayton
Jarrett Allen
Coby White
Gary Trent Jr
Hamidou Daillo
Jamal Murray
Lauri Markkanen
NAW
Brandon Ingram
DeAndre Hunter
De'Aaron Fox
Lonzo Ball
John Collins
Thomas Bryant
OG Anunoby
Bam Adebayo
Jaylen Brown (for 19 more days)
Malik Beasley
Devin Booker (still...)
Jaylen and Book have 17 and 24 days left in this category, respectively, so let’s set them aside, awesome as they are.

Of the remaining list: Luka, Tatum, Trae, Ja, Zion, Bam, Murray, SGA, Ingram, and LaMelo seem like the ten no-doubters. Yeah, there are almost certainly another ten or more that “anyone would take” over Poole, though with Poole now the de facto starting SG in GS, I’m betting that list is gonna shrink substantially over the next few months.

Obviously there’s a huge “fanboy who cried wolf” factor with me and any Warrior prospect I pimp, but man, Poole’s development over the last two years has blown me away. He just has all the earmarks of a budding star right now — you can hear it in the way Kerr, Steph, and co. talk about him. And he just turned 22, so presumably has a bit more room to grow than some of the guys at the upper limit of this category.

On the other hand: we now also have Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Suggs, Barnes, Giddey, Kuminga and co. to consider…
 
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benhogan

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I'd take 12 of the top 13, from 2019 draft, ahead of Poole.
Culver has been a disappointment

Okeke, NAW, Thybulle, Clarke, Bazley probably all stay in front of JP

even Grant/Romeo might stay ahead of him, but doubt it
Yea I got this wrong. Stand corrected. Poole could have a huge year for the Warriors. Cusp top 20 under 25 is not a bad prediction

Another big night (pre-season and all) from a young Poole. Went back and looked at his game logs from last season. He finished really strong in meaningful games.

Maybe SRN is on to something here

https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401365922

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/4277956/jordan-poole
 

Cesar Crespo

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Updating my list. There were a ton of graduates and a few players who moved up or down. I might have missed an injured player who hasn't played all year but the only 2 I can think of are Wiseman and Isaac.



Tier 1
Tatum
Doncic
Zion: I'll assume he's not damaged goods.
Ja Morant
Anthony Edwards
LaMelo Ball.

Tier 2
SGA
Bam
Young
Ingram
Garland
Haliburton


Tier 3
Fox
Collins
Herro
Barrett
OG
JJJ
Miles Bridges
Evan Mobley
Cade Cunningham
Scottie Barnes
Anfernee Simons

Tier Big (don't know how to rank properly)
Ayton
TL
Allen
Mo Bamba
Jonathan Isaac
WCJ
Lauri Markkanen


Everyone Else (much smaller list than last time)
DeAndre Hunter
Gary Trent
Lonzo Ball
Sexton
James Wiseman
Malik Monk
PJ Washington
Coby White
Patrick Williams
Cameron Johnson
Michael Porter Jr
Lonnie Walker
Keldon Johnson
Desmond Bane
DeAnthony Melton
Huerter
Saddiq Bey
Jordan Poole
Cole Anthony
Devin Vassell
Franz Wagner
Tyrese Maxey
Josh Giddey


I'm sure I missed obvious people and I'm sure there are arguments for others. Probably some argument on the tiers too and Haliburton being so high. Crazy how much young talent is in the league right now though.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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How badly does a team of the best 10 players under 25 years of age get beaten by the best 10 players 25 or older? They'd clearly be inferior, but how bad would it be?

Say:

Under 25: Tatum, Doncic, Ja, Zion (healthy), Edwards, Ball, Young, Bam, SGA, Ayton
25+: Curry, LeBron, Jokic, Durant, Embiid, Butler, Giannis, Lillard, Paul, Harden

We can fidget with these teams, but roughly let's go with these. What's the Vegas line in that game? Is the 25+ team favored by more or less than, say, 12 points? What's the number?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Best of 7 goes 6 with 25+ winning. It was never actually that close though, as the youth team wins the first game against an over confident/sleeping vet team. Vet team wins the next 3 easily and lets off a little 3-1, allowing Youth to steal a 2nd game. Vet team wins game 6 easily as well.
 

Sam Ray Not

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How badly does a team of the best 10 players under 25 years of age get beaten by the best 10 players 25 or older? They'd clearly be inferior, but how bad would it be?

Say:

Under 25: Tatum, Doncic, Ja, Zion (healthy), Edwards, Ball, Young, Bam, SGA, Ayton
25+: Curry, LeBron, Jokic, Durant, Embiid, Butler, Giannis, Lillard, Paul, Harden

We can fidget with these teams, but roughly let's go with these. What's the Vegas line in that game? Is the 25+ team favored by more or less than, say, 12 points? What's the number?
Hmm, outside of Giannis, Embiid, and the Joker, that 25+ team looks a lot like the 32+ team. Don’t forget the 25+ crew also includes young 20-somethings like Booker, KAT, Mitchell, LaVine, VanVleet, Gobert — who may not be “better” than the old guys you listed, but are more capable of running all day with the young’uns. They also get to poach Bam in four months, and Tatum in a year.

Of course, by then the younguns will be that much better. But generally I think setting the cut-off age at like 28, if not in the spirit of this diary, makes for a more fair fight.

In other news: the updated list needs WAY more Kuminga.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Hmm, outside of Giannis, Embiid, and the Joker, that 25+ team looks a lot like the 32+ team. Don’t forget the 25+ crew also includes young 20-somethings like Booker, KAT, Mitchell, LaVine, VanVleet, Gobert — who may not be “better” than the old guys you listed, but are more capable of running all day with the young’uns. They also get to poach Bam in four months, and Tatum in a year.

Of course, by then the younguns will be that much better. But generally I think setting the cut-off age at like 28, if not in the spirit of this diary, makes for a more fair fight.

In other news: no Kuminga or Poole on the updated list. Okay.
Poole is definitely there. I tightened up the list, you can't really complain about Kuminga not being there.
 

Kliq

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Updating my list. There were a ton of graduates and a few players who moved up or down. I might have missed an injured player who hasn't played all year but the only 2 I can think of are Wiseman and Isaac.



Tier 1
Tatum
Doncic
Zion: I'll assume he's not damaged goods.
Ja Morant
Anthony Edwards
LaMelo Ball.

Tier 2
SGA
Bam
Young
Ingram
Garland
Haliburton


Tier 3
Fox
Collins
Herro
Barrett
OG
JJJ
Miles Bridges
Evan Mobley
Cade Cunningham
Scottie Barnes
Anfernee Simons

Tier Big (don't know how to rank properly)
Ayton
TL
Allen
Mo Bamba
Jonathan Isaac
WCJ
Lauri Markkanen


Everyone Else (much smaller list than last time)
DeAndre Hunter
Gary Trent
Lonzo Ball
Sexton
James Wiseman
Malik Monk
PJ Washington
Coby White
Patrick Williams
Cameron Johnson
Michael Porter Jr
Lonnie Walker
Keldon Johnson
Desmond Bane
DeAnthony Melton
Huerter
Saddiq Bey
Jordan Poole
Cole Anthony
Devin Vassell
Franz Wagner
Tyrese Maxey
Josh Giddey


I'm sure I missed obvious people and I'm sure there are arguments for others. Probably some argument on the tiers too and Haliburton being so high. Crazy how much young talent is in the league right now though.
Trae is a Tier 1 player, no doubt about it. He led his team to the conference finals this year, and is probably one of the 5-10 best overall offensive forces in basketball. He is averaging 28-9 and shooting 38% from three. He clearly has major defensive issues but he has been an incredible player so far during his career.

SGA is having a very poor shooting year; really disappointing given his growth curve so far this year. Hopefully he bounces back at some point.

Bam I'd also probably put in Tier 1. He got hurt but is having a great season; gives you so much as a defender and while not a shooter or a traditional post-player, gets his on offense with his excellent screen-and-roll play and passing from the elbow.
 

Average Game James

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How badly does a team of the best 10 players under 25 years of age get beaten by the best 10 players 25 or older? They'd clearly be inferior, but how bad would it be?

Say:

Under 25: Tatum, Doncic, Ja, Zion (healthy), Edwards, Ball, Young, Bam, SGA, Ayton
25+: Curry, LeBron, Jokic, Durant, Embiid, Butler, Giannis, Lillard, Paul, Harden

We can fidget with these teams, but roughly let's go with these. What's the Vegas line in that game? Is the 25+ team favored by more or less than, say, 12 points? What's the number?
Old guys have maybe the best 7 guys overall (Curry, LeBron, Jokic, Durant, Embiid, Giannis, Harden) and at a minimum 7 of the top 9 depending on how aggressively you want to rank Luka and Ja. I don’t think it’s a close contest.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Poole is definitely there. I tightened up the list, you can't really complain about Kuminga not being there.
Ah, missed JP, my bad. Fixed.

As for Kuminga … 19 year old freak athlete who guards 1-5 and is currently putting up 19.9 pts per 36 on .594 true shooting — best among the 2021 lotto picks on both counts, and by a good margin. 7.2 boards per 36 to boot. At minimum, if we’re doing “zero sum Warriors,” he should be well ahead of Wiseman right now. I think he has a great shot to be one of the two or three best players in his class, given his combo of efficiency, athleticism, and extreme youth (over a year younger than Barnes, Cunningham, and Wagner, e.g.) and would bump him ahead of Suggs and Green at minimum in a redraft. But on verra…
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If I were a betting person, I'd put a lot of money on a productive career for Kuminga. He is already showing some flashes of elite defense. I don't know what his ceiling is but its hard not to dream on big things for him if his development continues.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ah, missed JP, my bad. Fixed.

As for Kuminga … 19 year old freak athlete who guards 1-5 and is currently putting up 19.9 pts per 36 on .594 true shooting — best among the 2021 lotto picks on both counts, and by a good margin. 7.2 boards per 36 to boot. At minimum, if we’re doing “zero sum Warriors,” he should be well ahead of Wiseman right now. I think he has a great shot to be one of the two or three best players in his class, given his combo of efficiency, athleticism, and extreme youth (over a year younger than Barnes, Cunningham, and Wagner, e.g.) and would bump him ahead of Suggs and Green at minimum in a redraft. But on verra…
I don't disagree with you about a redraft and I'm sure Kuminga will be on my list next year. Like Poole, he's on his 2nd string (7+ game stretch) of good games this year. I think that is an important thing. Langford was unable to ever put more than 2 or 3 games together. As for Wiseman, I felt obligated to list him. I still really have no idea where to rank him. With Edwards, you can clearly see the growth.

I just tried to stick to more established players and mostly avoided this year's draft unless it was hard to avoid them (Barnes, Mobley, Cunningham). I like Wagner more than most too.

Trae is a Tier 1 player, no doubt about it. He led his team to the conference finals this year, and is probably one of the 5-10 best overall offensive forces in basketball. He is averaging 28-9 and shooting 38% from three. He clearly has major defensive issues but he has been an incredible player so far during his career.

SGA is having a very poor shooting year; really disappointing given his growth curve so far this year. Hopefully he bounces back at some point.

Bam I'd also probably put in Tier 1. He got hurt but is having a great season; gives you so much as a defender and while not a shooter or a traditional post-player, gets his on offense with his excellent screen-and-roll play and passing from the elbow.
Yeah, I was debating Young. I disagree about Bam but he's at the top of tier 2. I have a hard time putting a big who doesn't shoot into the first tier (Zion is an outlier and not a big? I dunno). He's clearly too good to put into Tier Big, though. I also tried to keep tier 1 the same size as tier 2. I suppose I could have made tier 2 bigger.
 

benhogan

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Pretty accurate tiering of youngsters by @Cesar Crespo

feels like Desmond Bane is jumping up a tier

throw Kuminga on there, and punt Wiseman, since we don't know what he is other than a BIG that is injured (Tier BIG?)
 

Cesar Crespo

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Interesting no one has (yet, it's early) argued for a Tier Doncic this time around. Is that because people think Doncic has regressed some or because others have taken bigger steps forward? Combination of both?
 

Euclis20

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Interesting no one has (yet, it's early) argued for a Tier Doncic this time around. Is that because people think Doncic has regressed some or because others have taken bigger steps forward? Combination of both?
I don't know that he's regressed so much as he's stopped improving. He was 1st team all-NBA in his second season, at age 20. He's basically the same guy two full seasons later. Part of giving him his own class was the implicit assumption that he was about to be an MVP candidate for the next 15 years, but he's still one step below that. Probably still worth putting him at the top of tier 1, but I don't know that he's still considered a full class ahead of Tatum/Zion/Ja/etc.
 

Cellar-Door

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on talent, old guys sweep.
They have the best 7 guys and the young guys have nobody who can guard KD, Embiid, Giannis or Curry.
You could argue about chemistry maybe, but also, you could honestly full rotate and still win.
Like Paul/Embiid/Lillard/LeBron/Butler get game 1 and 3, Jokic/Giannis/KD/Curry/Harden get games 2 and 4. I'd have them as heavy favorites with both groups against anyone the under 25 crowd chooses.

Edit- also if u-25 gets "healthy Zion" over 25 gets healthy Kawhi and PG... just way more 2 way talent
 

Kliq

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I don't know that he's regressed so much as he's stopped improving. He was 1st team all-NBA in his second season, at age 20. He's basically the same guy two full seasons later. Part of giving him his own class was the implicit assumption that he was about to be an MVP candidate for the next 15 years, but he's still one step below that. Probably still worth putting him at the top of tier 1, but I don't know that he's still considered a full class ahead of Tatum/Zion/Ja/etc.
Luka started the season poorly, but in his last 15 games he is averaging 32.5-10-9 and shooting 41% from three on 9 attempts per game, while the Mavericks are 10-5 and surged up the West standings. So maybe Tier Luka?