Tracking the Mendoza's (league batting average).

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
But how does it compare to Aprils, historically?

And how does it compare to Aprils during a pandemic, in a year after there were no minor leagues?

I'm sure the information exists to answer your first half of the question but I can't find it.

edit: Never mind, I found it. Batting averages:

2019: .245
2018: .244
2017: .247
2016: .249

I'm seeing a trend. If anyone cares to look more into it: It's month by month splits. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016 You can go to previous year.
 

caminante11

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Nov 17, 2006
3,088
Brooklyn, NY
Part of it is the rising strikeout rate which is setting another record this year. But part of it is a drop in BABIP and that could be fluky. BABIP is .283 this year, was .292 last year and .298 in 2019. That should even out as the year progresses.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Oct 31, 2013
72,428
A lot of it is shifts being successful and batters not willing/able to bunt or go the other way
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
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Jul 20, 2005
7,877
Boston, MA
It's not just shifting, it's that every team has immediate information about the batted ball tendencies of every single hitter. Everyone can perfectly position every defender for every at bat and it's killing BABIP. Especially on grounders.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Runs per game per team, by year
2021 - 4.25
2020 - 4.65
2019 - 4.83
2018 - 4.45
2017 - 4.65
2016 - 4.48
2015 - 4.25
2014 - 4.07
2013 - 4.17

I think 2016 is when the launch angle revolution began, if memory serves. You see the rise in runs per game from 2016-2020 compared with the years preceding the LAR. Now runs are back down as defenses are catching up with all the shifts and strikeouts. So I wonder if this really could mean that small ball needs to return to baseball in some way. Bunting for hits. Stealing bases. That kind of thing. Manufacturing runs by moving the ball and runners around in old-fashioned ways.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Half way thru May, the line now stands at .235/.311/.391.

So far in May: .240/.316/.394. BAbip of .292. In April, it was .283.

.240 would be 5th worst of all time. So while better, not much.



Seattle, Cleveland and Milwaukee are currently hitting below the Mendoza Line. (.204, .210 and .213 respectively). 7 teams are hitting below .220 (Det, TB, NYY, Oak).

The worst Team batting average in the modern era is .2106 by the White Sox in 1910. The 2020 Reds had the 2nd lowest batting average but it was also a very short season.

Up until the end of 2019, 6 teams had hit below .220 in the modern era. 4 teams did it last season. There are currently 7 doing it now.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
At .238/.313/.398 now.

April: .232/.309/.389
May: .239/.315/.397
So far in June: .247/.318/.419

I wonder if maybe we are already seeing an impact of the new rules. No way to actually know for sure though.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
April: .232/.309/.389
May: .239/.315/.397
June: .246/.320/.417
So far in July: .247/.322/.421

Year: .241/.316/.406.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
On May 3rd, the league is at .232/.306/.368.

At the end of April last season, the league was at .232/.309/.389.

This is over 25152 PA in 2022. The good news is, the offense league wide should get better relative to itself as the season goes on.

Over the course of 22.399 AB, .021 Slugging is worth 470 total bases. I think? That feels low. It's just .021 x 22,399 right? Though now looking, it's over 680 games. 470 total bases looks a lot bigger next to the 680 number.
 

allmanbro

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SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
362
Portland, Maine
Since I've heard a lot on the deadend ball, I quickly calculated March/April Isolated Slugging the last few years:

Year BA SLG ISO
2014​
0.249​
0.389​
0.140​
2015​
0.250​
0.390​
0.140​
2016​
0.249​
0.405​
0.156​
2017​
0.247​
0.407​
0.160​
2018​
0.244​
0.400​
0.156​
2019​
0.245​
0.421​
0.176​
2021​
0.232​
0.390​
0.158​
2022​
0.231​
0.369​
0.138​


So, April ISO is down to basically 2014/2015 levels this year. There are two confounds though: 1) we've replaced pitchers with DHs, which you'd expect to see ISO go up from that, but also 2) shortened spring training and generally cold weather.

Overall, it seems like power is genuinely down this year. If this is because of the deadened ball and it all works the way the league wants, maybe we actually do see a move away from three true outcomes. BA might go up, HR and K down. But these adjustments are probably really hard to make mid season.
 
Last edited:

Jason Bae

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Jul 23, 2021
624
NJ
League slash line up to .243/.312/.395. League HR rate of 1.07, lowest since 2015. Currently the lowest BA since 1968 (.237) and OPS since 2014 (.700). There are currently only seven qualified hitters with an OPS above .900 (Judge, Goldschmidt, Alvarez, Arenado, Freeman, Devers, Riley). It's pretty rare nowadays to see < .900 OPS hitters in the top 10. There were two in 2014 (Miguel Cabrera and Michael Brantley), prior to that you'd have to go back to 1992 (Danny Tartabull, Ken Griffey Jr., Andy Van Slyke).