TRADE DEADLINE GAME THREAD

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,672
Rogers Park
Very true but I would still but I still would have taken Liriano and he probably would have cost much much less than Pomeranz did and has a better track record.
I disagree pretty emphatically with this, TB. What is there about Liriano's 5+ BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 that suggests he can help at all?

Liriano is conceding a .370 OBP and a .444 SLG. That's almost exactly Dustin Pedroia's season line.

Without hyperbole, I'd rather roll the dice with Buchholz' new/old arm slot. And I'd much rather see what Pomeranz can do over a longer stretch of starts. Whether the difference between those two is worth Espinoza is a question for the evaluators, I guess.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
I disagree pretty emphatically with this, TB. What is there about Liriano's 5+ BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 that suggests he can help at all?...
Agreed. Liriano is like a LH version of Clay. Similar career spikes of inconsistency (outside of the PITT magic he experienced until this year) laced with injuries. He's always had BB problems. His performance this year stinks. Sure, he'd have cost a lot less than Pomeranz - for good reason. I think patient (and RHH filled) lineups - like TOR's - would eat him alive.
 

ugmo33

Member
SoSH Member
May 6, 2016
165
Haven't seen anybody mention maybe the best result of the deadline...the Sox have 10 more games against the Yankees
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
19,983
St. Louis, MO
Since this is a game thread, a good chance to throw this out there....what happened to Rudy? Been meaning to ask. And a trade deadline passed without Corsi.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Logic? I mean, I literally posted in absolutes, but clearly it isn't an absolute that's what happened.

But it certainly makes sense to reach that conclusion without making leaps.
I guess that's what I was asking about, your certainty. I see how you could assume that, but I don't even necessarily think that quote is certain to be directed at Boston. Or it could mean he wanted either of Yoan or AB, or Urias from LAD or Gallo and Profar or a handful of other guys on the three teams mentioned. Or he wanted one of the 3 Bs, All of them have multiple untouchables. I'm just not seeing where that means Yoan/AB, even though it's a certainly in the field of consideration. Frankly I'm not even sure the two of them together would have gotten it done, but I'm also not really buying that they were going to move him unless it was an extreme overpay, as in more than those two. But it never made sense to me that they would trade him anyway, so I'm probably jaded there.
 

czar

fanboy
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
4,315
Ann Arbor
I disagree pretty emphatically with this, TB. What is there about Liriano's 5+ BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9 that suggests he can help at all?

Liriano is conceding a .370 OBP and a .444 SLG. That's almost exactly Dustin Pedroia's season line.

Without hyperbole, I'd rather roll the dice with Buchholz' new/old arm slot. And I'd much rather see what Pomeranz can do over a longer stretch of starts. Whether the difference between those two is worth Espinoza is a question for the evaluators, I guess.
Let me preface this with "I would rather have any of the 5 current starters in this rotation other than Liriano." And there are some red flags beyond "he's having a bad stretch."

That said, I've noticed a bit over-the-topness with "what have you done for me lately." Liriano posted xFIP- of 82, 93, 81 the last 3 years. Good enough for 24th best SP in baseball. He's at 111 this year -- not very good, but, for example, Julio Teheran posted a 108 mark last year. Shelby Miller was 121 two years ago. Danny Duffy has been worse than that for a few years running. Jon Lester was 102 after 2013. Verlander was 11 in 2014.

So Liriano has had a bad ~100 IP. We've seen pitchers bounce back from that before. Perhaps Liriano will continue to put up awful peripherals moving forward, but we know that it takes quite a bit to establish new (bad) baselines for previously good players. I actually think a move for him was a good buy-low for the Jays if they are intent on competing the next few years (where Liriano's value should theoretically be maximized). PIT really must have really felt they needed to clear that salary.

Agreed. Liriano is like a LH version of Clay. Similar career spikes of inconsistency (outside of the PITT magic he experienced until this year) laced with injuries. He's always had BB problems. His performance this year stinks. Sure, he'd have cost a lot less than Pomeranz - for good reason. I think patient (and RHH filled) lineups - like TOR's - would eat him alive.
Shocking -- the guy who is 5 years older with the more expensive contract would be a cheaper get that the cost-controlled 27 year-old showing breakout signs.

"PITT magic" that lasted 3+ years and produced ~9 fWAR with good peripherals (well above average swinging strike rates, essentially league average BB%) is not a lucky streak.

Again, not saying Liriano *should* have cost a lot, but it shouldn't shock anyone if he were to be a league-average (or better) pitcher down the stretch.
 

FanSinceBoggs

seantwo
SoSH Member
Jan 12, 2009
937
New York
Lucroy would have been an awesome addition for the Red Sox. By OPS, catcher is the weakest offensive position in the Red Sox lineup, even weaker than LF. Lucroy would have helped the Red Sox this year and next, and maybe even beyond next year if the Red Sox extended him. Leon is likely a fluke, a BABIP anomaly. Vazquez has issues with the bat. Swihart might not be anything more than a mediocre hitter and below average defender. I think Vazquez is the best of the three, and will likely be the starter long term, but his offensive game will always be a challenge.

But it is impossible to know what the Brewers wanted for Lucroy in their talks with the Red Sox. Maybe they asked for Benintendi or a package that included Devers and Kopech. If that is the case, I'm glad the Red Sox didn't bite on Lucroy even though he would have been a significant upgrade over what they have.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Passing on Lucroy was a smart move by DD, given that Milwaukee undoubtedly would have wanted Devers or Kopech in the deal. No way in hell you give up one of those guys for a 1 1/2 years of a player at a position where the Sox are fine now and still have plenty of potential going forward. I'm still high on Swihart and no way I'm ready to give up on Vazquez. And for now, Leon is doing nicely. I doubt the conversations were ever very serious.
 

Rough Carrigan

reasons within Reason
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Let me preface this with "I would rather have any of the 5 current starters in this rotation other than Liriano." And there are some red flags beyond "he's having a bad stretch."

That said, I've noticed a bit over-the-topness with "what have you done for me lately." Liriano posted xFIP- of 82, 93, 81 the last 3 years. Good enough for 24th best SP in baseball. He's at 111 this year -- not very good, but, for example, Julio Teheran posted a 108 mark last year. Shelby Miller was 121 two years ago. Danny Duffy has been worse than that for a few years running. Jon Lester was 102 after 2013. Verlander was 11 in 2014.

So Liriano has had a bad ~100 IP. We've seen pitchers bounce back from that before. Perhaps Liriano will continue to put up awful peripherals moving forward, but we know that it takes quite a bit to establish new (bad) baselines for previously good players. I actually think a move for him was a good buy-low for the Jays if they are intent on competing the next few years (where Liriano's value should theoretically be maximized). PIT really must have really felt they needed to clear that salary.



Shocking -- the guy who is 5 years older with the more expensive contract would be a cheaper get that the cost-controlled 27 year-old showing breakout signs.

"PITT magic" that lasted 3+ years and produced ~9 fWAR with good peripherals (well above average swinging strike rates, essentially league average BB%) is not a lucky streak.

Again, not saying Liriano *should* have cost a lot, but it shouldn't shock anyone if he were to be a league-average (or better) pitcher down the stretch.
It's also possible that Pittsburgh knows something. It seems like they knew what was wrong with him and how to fix him, doesn't it? They took a guy who just couldn't seem to quite get his shit together and, while not as well as that great year early on with the Twins, they got him straightened out. (I know, someone could argue that Liriano straightened himself out and it just happened to occur when he went to Pittsburgh. That's certainly possible.) It has to be a little disconcerting when the guys who, apparently, knew what to do to fix him choose to get rid of him.

Also, I think that there are more teams in the AL than in the NL who will work over pitchers who walk too many guys.
 

FanSinceBoggs

seantwo
SoSH Member
Jan 12, 2009
937
New York
Passing on Lucroy was a smart move by DD, given that Milwaukee undoubtedly would have wanted Devers or Kopech in the deal. No way in hell you give up one of those guys for a 1 1/2 years of a player at a position where the Sox are fine now and still have plenty of potential going forward. I'm still high on Swihart and no way I'm ready to give up on Vazquez. And for now, Leon is doing nicely. I doubt the conversations were ever very serious.
I'm assuming the conversations were serious in the sense that the Red Sox identified catcher as a position to upgrade and contacted the Brewers in good faith to see what it would take to acquire Lucroy. The two teams probably discussed players as well, but when the price was too high the Red Sox may have walked away or made a lower offer that was rejected by the Brewers. According to rumors, some kind of contact between the organizations took place regarding Lucroy.

I suppose a strong lineup can carry a weak spot in the order, and at least Leon, Vazquez, and Hanigan are quality defensive players. Lucroy is a quality defensive player who would have provided a huge and valuable upgrade to the offense.
 
Last edited:

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Or the Sox and Brewers never talked about him. We don't know. Rumors aren't facts.

The weakest position in a very good offensive lineup isn't necessarily weak. They're fine at catcher. No way a trade for Lucroy would have been sabermetrically defensible.
It actually would have been defensible. Dave Cameron wrote an article on that specific thing a few weeks ago. I'll look for the link, but his point was that adding a good hitter to an already good lineup is more effective than adding a good hitter to a weak lineup. The concept was if the overall lineup is good, that new addition is hitting more often with guys on base or getting on base with good hitters behind him. As opposed to adding a good hitter to, say, the Mets and he often comes up with the bases empty or stands at first base while his team meekly tries to move him over.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
It actually would have been defensible. Dave Cameron wrote an article on that specific thing a few weeks ago. I'll look for the link, but his point was that adding a good hitter to an already good lineup is more effective than adding a good hitter to a weak lineup. The concept was if the overall lineup is good, that new addition is hitting more often with guys on base or getting on base with good hitters behind him. As opposed to adding a good hitter to, say, the Mets and he often comes up with the bases empty or stands at first base while his team meekly tries to move him over.
It very well could have been. I just love that phrase.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,672
Rogers Park
Let me preface this with "I would rather have any of the 5 current starters in this rotation other than Liriano." And there are some red flags beyond "he's having a bad stretch."

That said, I've noticed a bit over-the-topness with "what have you done for me lately." Liriano posted xFIP- of 82, 93, 81 the last 3 years. Good enough for 24th best SP in baseball. He's at 111 this year -- not very good, but, for example, Julio Teheran posted a 108 mark last year. Shelby Miller was 121 two years ago. Danny Duffy has been worse than that for a few years running. Jon Lester was 102 after 2013. Verlander was 11 in 2014.

So Liriano has had a bad ~100 IP. We've seen pitchers bounce back from that before. Perhaps Liriano will continue to put up awful peripherals moving forward, but we know that it takes quite a bit to establish new (bad) baselines for previously good players. I actually think a move for him was a good buy-low for the Jays if they are intent on competing the next few years (where Liriano's value should theoretically be maximized). PIT really must have really felt they needed to clear that salary.
This is fair, but I'd say we aren't at the point in the success cycle to take that gamble. I would have loved that kind of buy-low move in, say, late 2014, but now we're in a tight pennant race. We need to take a "what have you done for me lately" perspective, because the difference between winning the division and a wildcard slot could easily be a single game.

We trail both the Orioles (4-6) and Jays (6-7) head to head, too.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,469
This report just came out today from CBS Chicago
The White Sox discussed left-handed aces Chris Sale and Jose Quintana with the Red Sox prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but Boston was unwilling to part with center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for either, reports Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago.

It’s unclear who else was involved in the teams’ talks, but had the Red Sox given up Bradley for Sale or Quintana, they would have damaged one area of their roster to improve another. That’s something contending teams are especially loath to do during the season. However, the two clubs could resume negotiations in the offseason, writes Levine.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/sox-rumors-sale-quintana-bradley.html#comments

I assume if the Sox revisit trade talks with the Pale Hose this offseason, the jumping off point will be whats reported here
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,672
Rogers Park
Question is what else they wanted. If it's JBJ, Moncada, and Kopech, then no thank you.
Even straight up, it's not a no-brainer. Bradley's at 4.4 WAR this season, over 6 in the last calendar year. Sale's best season is 6.2, and he should come in around 5 this season.

Sale is on a very reasonable deal. Including the options, he's controllable through 2019 for $38m.

Bradley is pre-arb. He has one more year at $500k, and then three years of arbitration, making him controllable through 2020. His arbitration years will likely cost something like $30m.

Both players have downside risk. Bradley could forget how to hit again, or get hurt. Sale is a pitcher with weird mechanics, and his velocity and peripherals have dipped from elite to merely very good this season. But basically, the deal is four years of Bradley's production for three years of Sale's, at comparable money.

Now you could argue that top SP are more important to a roster (or to *this* roster!) than outfielders in ways that WAR doesn't capture. That might very well be true. And I would probably do the deal, insofar as we're swimming in center fielders, but any rotation could use Sale.

NO WAY are you throwing in Moncada *or* Kopech however.