Trade deadline

RoDaddy

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It’s getting close - July 30 I believe - so I thought it might be interesting to start a thread on this. Straight off, we need help at 1B and Rizzo might be available – and maybe Kimbrel too so a trade with the Cubs might be worth considering. Rizzo’s struggled some the last few years but is still only 31 and in the last year of his contract, so this might be a half-year rental. I like Dalbec’s potential – when he’s hitting he reminds me some of Tony C - but the strikeouts are brutal and will always be part of his game. Maybe he could be part of an offer to Chicago; we still have Chavis from the right side who can play first (just as bad lately). Lead off looked to be a definite need a month ago but now it’s not so clear. Kike is hitting better and if he falters, Arroyo is a second option
 

Ferm Sheller

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Another 1B target who might be available and is a FA at the end of the year is Garrett Cooper. Plays a solid 1B and is having a good year at the plate (.862 OPS in 211 AB). Not a star, but is a huge upgrade over Dalbec.
 

deythur

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It’s getting close - July 30 I believe - so I thought it might be interesting to start a thread on this. Straight off, we need help at 1B and Rizzo might be available – and maybe Kimbrel too so a trade with the Cubs might be worth considering. Rizzo’s struggled some the last few years but is still only 31 and in the last year of his contract, so this might be a half-year rental. I like Dalbec’s potential – when he’s hitting he reminds me some of Tony C - but the strikeouts are brutal and will always be part of his game. Maybe he could be part of an offer to Chicago; we still have Chavis from the right side who can play first (just as bad lately). Lead off looked to be a definite need a month ago but now it’s not so clear. Kike is hitting better and if he falters, Arroyo is a second option
The other par that has me longing for Rizzo is his defense. Just seems like Bobby D misses too many balls that are in the dirt. His attitude seems like it would be a good fit as well. The chemistry on this team seems rock solid and I think he could slide right in. Half season rental shouldn't break the prospect bank either I wouldn't think, I also could be very wrong.
 

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Another 1B target who might be available and is a FA at the end of the year is Garrett Cooper. Plays a solid 1B and is having a good year at the plate (.862 OPS in 211 AB). Not a star, but is a huge upgrade over Dalbec.
Is he really a huge upgrade? He seems like a classic AAAA guy who had a good first half of a season.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Is he really a huge upgrade? He seems like a classic AAAA guy who had a good first half of a season.
I mean we can debate whether "huge" is the right adjective, but I'd say he's very competent, whereas Dalbec is a disaster. He's an example of a guy who wouldn't cost a lot and isn't going strike out every AB or have nearly perfect, waist-high throws hit him in forearm and get past him.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Depending on the target, I'd be willing to part with Downs and Gilberto. I doubt a move like that is in the cards though.
 

ehaz

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Is he really a huge upgrade? He seems like a classic AAAA guy who had a good first half of a season.
Practically anyone is an upgrade if they take over from Dalbec.

Dalbec has a -1.2 bWAR, good for 5th worst in the MLB. fWAR likes him more at -0.5, which is only good for 7th worst position player in baseball.
 

shaggydog2000

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Does Rizzo refusing to be vaxxed enter the decision process?
Like every other team, the Red Sox already have players who have chosen not to be vaccinated. I don't think they'll even remotely think about it.
 

EllisTheRimMan

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Does Rizzo refusing to be vaxxed enter the decision process?
Does for me because it shows he’s a dangerous dumbass.

Anti-vaxxers should be scorned. Fuck him and I hope he and his family get infected Would love to see some big Darwinian selection this fall/winter, in general.

edit: I’ll let this stand but will refrain from further vaccine discussion. Let’s just say as a vaccinologist for 20+ years I have very strong feelings about people refusing the Covid vaccine.
 
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bosockboy

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From a baseball perspective my point was we’d have a higher risk of losing him to Covid during a critical stretch or the postseason because he’s not protected. Are you less apt to give up assets with that in the equation?
 

mauf

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Does for me because it shows he’s a dangerous dumbass.

Anti-vaxxers should be scorned. Fuck him and I hope he and his family get infected Would love to see some big Darwinian selection this fall/winter, in general.

edit: I’ll let this stand but will refrain from further vaccine discussion. Let’s just say as a vaccinologist for 20+ years I have very strong feelings about people refusing the Covid vaccine.
I share your feelings (well, maybe not quite, but I sympathize), but this isn’t the right forum to discuss them. Thanks for letting it go.
 

E5 Yaz

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From a baseball perspective my point was we’d have a higher risk of losing him to Covid during a critical stretch or the postseason because he’s not protected. Are you less apt to give up assets with that in the equation?
Would it be your opinion then that the Red Sox should trade away their own players who haven't been vaccinated, since they also could be missing for critical games?
 

mauf

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Would it be your opinion then that the Red Sox should trade away their own players who haven't been vaccinated, since they also could be missing for critical games?
Choosing to keep a player you have is different than choosing to give up value to acquire a player.

I’m not dead-set against acquiring Rizzo, but I think about his vaccine status the same way I’d think about a chronic injury that has a material chance of flaring up in the next 2-3 months, except that Rizzo might not be the only player who is unavailable if that happens. It materially diminishes his value as a short-term rental imo.
 

E5 Yaz

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Choosing to keep a player you have is different than choosing to give up value to acquire a player.
I was responding to his concern about the possibility of losing a player during a crucial moment -- which appeared to be his point — regardless of it being one currently on the team, or one you acquire.
 

chawson

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Garrett Cooper’s a good target because he slots well as a platoon mate for Casas down the line, or Cordero in the short term if that experiment works out. He frees up Dalbec for a trade too in case we’re going for bigger fish.

Trading for rentals doesn’t seem like Bloom’s style. Seems like this FO spends an above average amount of time laying groundwork with clubs for potential deals. I think Bloom is looking to get long-term pieces.

Rosenthal reports yesterday that the Twins are likely to trade Buxton if he doesn’t sign a $70M extension. I’d suspect we’re one of a relatively small number of teams who’d extend him for more than that, but again, he’s such a particular case that it’s hard to know his trade value.

I’m less convinced Arroyo isn’t playing above his head, but if Bloom thinks he’s a stable bridge to Nick Yorke then Downs might make a solid first piece of a package for Buxton.
 

geoduck no quahog

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The discussion about Rizzo does bring up an interesting issue. If teams devalue a player because he's un-vaccinated, and that somehow gets out - does the Player's Association file a complaint?
 

mauf

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The discussion about Rizzo does bring up an interesting issue. If teams devalue a player because he's un-vaccinated, and that somehow gets out - does the Player's Association file a complaint?
No, so long as each team makes its own independent decision. (Collusion would be a different matter.) Teams routinely decline to sign guys or trade for guys for reasons that wouldn’t justify discipline.
 

edoug

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No, so long as each team makes its own independent decision. (Collusion would be a different matter.) Teams routinely decline to sign guys or trade for guys for reasons that wouldn’t justify discipline.
Yeah, other than collusion, not much the Pa can do.
 

shaggydog2000

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From a baseball perspective my point was we’d have a higher risk of losing him to Covid during a critical stretch or the postseason because he’s not protected. Are you less apt to give up assets with that in the equation?
There are 17 people on the MLB injury list with COVID. There are 18 with just a back injury. There are 281 players on the MLB injury list total. Most players go on the COVID list for having an asymptomatic positive test and are quickly playing again. Covid is very serious on a national (and international) level. As a concern about causes that an MLB player may not be available, it's in the noise.
 

NoMaRRaMoN

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There are 17 people on the MLB injury list with COVID. There are 18 with just a back injury. There are 281 players on the MLB injury list total. Most players go on the COVID list for having an asymptomatic positive test and are quickly playing again. Covid is very serious on a national (and international) level. As a concern about causes that an MLB player may not be available, it's in the noise.
Not really, in that it is contagious and could lead to a significant chunk of the team being out at the same time (see the Yankees) for no good reason.
 

ehaz

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Depending on the target, I'd be willing to part with Downs and Gilberto. I doubt a move like that is in the cards though.
I wouldn't for a pure rental or a reliever, even Kimbrel or the Pirates' guy.

I do think those are two of the guys they'd be willing to part with for a good, controllable piece though. I'd be interested in kicking the tires on Luis Castillo. It would be a buy-low opportunity - 4.65 ERA/4.00 FIP in ~100 innings this season. But he's had a 3.35 ERA/3.41 FIP over 260+ innings in '19/'20. Only 28 years old and doesn't hit FA until 2024.
 

ehaz

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MLB.com proposes a trade.

AL East: A Rizzo return for Red Sox
Red Sox get: 1B Anthony Rizzo, RHP Ryan Tepera
Cubs get: OF Franchy Cordero, RHP Brayan Bello
(Red Sox No. 18 prospect), RHP Durbin Feltman

Inclusion of Bello makes that too rich for me. If Rizzo were still producing at an all-star level it might be worth the overpay.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I wouldn't for a pure rental or a reliever, even Kimbrel or the Pirates' guy.

I do think those are two of the guys they'd be willing to part with for a good, controllable piece though. I'd be interested in kicking the tires on Luis Castillo. It would be a buy-low opportunity - 4.65 ERA/4.00 FIP in ~100 innings this season. But he's had a 3.35 ERA/3.41 FIP over 260+ innings in '19/'20. Only 28 years old and doesn't hit FA until 2024.

Yeah, I wouldn't move them for a rental. Of the top prospects, those are the 2 I'd be willing to move if something better than Garrett Cooper comes up. Or for SP.
 

simplicio

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I'd be more interested in Jesus Aguilar from Miami at 1B than Rizzo. 273/335/480 at the plate this year, good pull hitter to abuse the monster. Arb eligible next year and a free agent in 2023.
 

Cesar Crespo

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MLB.com proposes a trade.

AL East: A Rizzo return for Red Sox
Red Sox get: 1B Anthony Rizzo, RHP Ryan Tepera
Cubs get: OF Franchy Cordero, RHP Brayan Bello
(Red Sox No. 18 prospect), RHP Durbin Feltman

Inclusion of Bello makes that too rich for me. If Rizzo were still producing at an all-star level it might be worth the overpay.
Gross. Bello is a lot higher than 18. Those rankings are old. He's arguably the Sox best pitching prospect. The healthiest, anyway. I want no part of moving Bello but I'm an irrational fanboy when it comes to him.
 

jmcc5400

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Yeah that's too much. Would you trade Dalbec as the major piece for Rizzo? With Casas on the horizon, I think I probably would.
 

nvalvo

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To be fair to those Rizzo trades, his numbers are a bit depressed by a weirdly low BABIP (.272) even as his quality of contact remains in line with his career norms.

I would too, but I doubt Dalbec alone is enough.
The rebuilding Cubs are one team who might actually be interested in some of our guys who need 40 man spots this winter, the group we should be trying to deal from.
 

bosockboy

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To be fair to those Rizzo trades, his numbers are a bit depressed by a weirdly low BABIP (.272) even as his quality of contact remains in line with his career norms.



The rebuilding Cubs are one team who might actually be interested in some of our guys who need 40 man spots this winter, the group we should be trying to deal from.
And it’s doubtful there’s a bidding war. No other contender is in need of a 1B upgrade.
 

benhogan

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Does for me because it shows he’s a dangerous dumbass.

Anti-vaxxers should be scorned. Fuck him and I hope he and his family get infected Would love to see some big Darwinian selection this fall/winter, in general.

edit: I’ll let this stand but will refrain from further vaccine discussion. Let’s just say as a vaccinologist for 20+ years I have very strong feelings about people refusing the Covid vaccine.
I'd like to hear your thoughts, as a vaccinologist, on this topic. Don't want people to get sick/die but want to hear from the experts.

Maybe another thread?
 

bsj

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Rizzo's vax decision absolutely is a factor in the con column. May not be a deal breaker, but certainly does not speak highly to his thought process for me.

Asdrubal Cabrera is a guy I was high on, not as a game changer but as another option, but he's on the IL and likely wont be movable
 
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Ferm Sheller

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And it’s doubtful there’s a bidding war. No other contender is in need of a 1B upgrade.
Right, but you also have to think of teams that have an 1B who can play the OF and need OF help. (I.e., Trade for Rizzo or whomever and move their 1B to LF/RF.)
 

richgedman'sghost

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Rizzo's vax decision absolutely is a factor in the con column. May not be a deal breaker, but certainly does not speak highly to his thought process for me.

Asdrubal Cabrera is a guy I was high on, not as a game changer but as another option, but he's on the IL and likely wont be movable
For Covid?
 

nvalvo

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And it’s doubtful there’s a bidding war. No other contender is in need of a 1B upgrade.
It's a good point. In order of Fangraphs projected wins, all the teams with playoff odds above 30%:

LAD – Muncy/Pujols/Bellinger
HOU – Gurriel/Garcia
BOS – Dalbec/Gonzalez/Cordero/Arroyo
SFG – Belt/Wade Jr./Flores
SDP – Hosmer/Cronenworth
CHW – Abreu/Vaughn
TBR – Choi/Diaz
MIL – Hiura/Tellez/Peterson
OAK – Olson/Moreland
NYM – Alonso/Smith
TOR – Guerrero Jr./Biggio

Apart from Boston, the only other contenders with dubious 1B situations are Milwaukee, who just acquired Rowdy Tellez, and San Diego, who still owe Hosmer ~4/$70m. Everyone else has something as good or better than Rizzo.

This actually makes me think that if I were Jed Hoyer, I'd be looking to use a Hosmer-Rizzo swap as a vehicle to buy ~$60m worth of the San Diego farm system, but I don't really see the Ricketts going for a move like that. Like Rizzo, Kimbrel and $20m for Hosmer, CJ Abrams (top ten prospect, pretty blocked at SS in San Diego), and Mackenzie Gore. I don't know if San Diego would do that, but that's what I'd be trying to do if I were Chicago. You won't need the payroll room for the next few seasons anyway.

Right, but you also have to think of teams that have an 1B who can play the OF and need OF help. (I.e., Trade for Rizzo or whomever and move their 1B to LF/RF.)
I hear what you're saying Ferm Sheller, but if you look up and down that list you'll realize that it applies to none of the teams likely to be buyers.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I hear what you're saying Ferm Sheller, but if you look up and down that list you'll realize that it applies to none of the teams likely to be buyers.
Okay, good to know and I hope that that turns out to be the case. It'd be great if they can get a solid player without having to overpay due to competition from other teams.
 

mauf

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I'd be more interested in Jesus Aguilar from Miami at 1B than Rizzo. 273/335/480 at the plate this year, good pull hitter to abuse the monster. Arb eligible next year and a free agent in 2023.
The Marlins lead the NL East in run differential. They’ve dug too big a hole to come back this year, but they’re not selling anyone at the deadline who can help them in 2022.
 

bosockboy

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It's a good point. In order of Fangraphs projected wins, all the teams with playoff odds above 30%:

LAD – Muncy/Pujols/Bellinger
HOU – Gurriel/Garcia
BOS – Dalbec/Gonzalez/Cordero/Arroyo
SFG – Belt/Wade Jr./Flores
SDP – Hosmer/Cronenworth
CHW – Abreu/Vaughn
TBR – Choi/Diaz
MIL – Hiura/Tellez/Peterson
OAK – Olson/Moreland
NYM – Alonso/Smith
TOR – Guerrero Jr./Biggio

Apart from Boston, the only other contenders with dubious 1B situations are Milwaukee, who just acquired Rowdy Tellez, and San Diego, who still owe Hosmer ~4/$70m. Everyone else has something as good or better than Rizzo.

This actually makes me think that if I were Jed Hoyer, I'd be looking to use a Hosmer-Rizzo swap as a vehicle to buy ~$60m worth of the San Diego farm system, but I don't really see the Ricketts going for a move like that. Like Rizzo, Kimbrel and $20m for Hosmer, CJ Abrams (top ten prospect, pretty blocked at SS in San Diego), and Mackenzie Gore. I don't know if San Diego would do that, but that's what I'd be trying to do if I were Chicago. You won't need the payroll room for the next few seasons anyway.



I hear what you're saying Ferm Sheller, but if you look up and down that list you'll realize that it applies to none of the teams likely to be buyers.
Yep he should be available on a really reasonable deal if they want him. Bonus it’s also a big defensive upgrade.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Only if you think 100% of the current team is vaxxed.
I disagree. You are giving up assets for half a season of an acquisition. The probability that player can contribute the rest of the way matters, and not being vaccinated lowers that probability.

If someone is already on your team you can’t change their choice and you don’t pay assets to get them.

It’s very different