Trade deadline

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,803
Might be an outlier but he's got a 4.3 WAR, 869OPS, truly a stud defender with a cannon, OPS+ 138. What's the line between good, very good, and great?

Will he change the offense? I don't think he can do it alone. In recent Yankees fashion, I fully expect him to go on the IL a week after he gets here.
It's probably partially my oldness talking & reluctance to call a lifetime .211 hitter "great".

He's had an interesting set of streaks this year. Was meh until the sticky crackdown, then went on a huge tear, then has been pretty bad in a small sample since the HR derby.

But yeah, he's 12th in WAR this season & has obviously been very good.
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,803
Talk to me about Hosmer. Statistically, he doesn't seem like a bad offensive player. Is the only major drawback the AAV?

I feel like their desire to shed the contract may lead to him being very cheap insofar as prospects needed, and fitting into the Bloom plan. Would you all be more open to it if the Pads were willing to eat some of the 2022 salary (which is really the brutal year)? His salary at $13 million per for the remaining years on his deal, IF he doesnt opt out, is not unreasonable.
Someone should correct me if I'm wrong, but he signed an 8/$144m contract & regardless of the actual payout structure it will count $18m/year against the cap for 4 more years after this one, minus the proration of any $ the Padres kick in (unless he opts out).

Personally, idgaf about the actual out of pocket to the owners, just what it costs tax-wise & how that impacts our ability to build a team.

I also don't think he'll opt out of the 3/$39m portion of his deal from his age 33 to 35 seasons, unless he really gets his career turned back around. The problem with that is it also limits the upside because if he actually becomes worth the contract, he won't stick around & play for it.

Where was I going with this? I have no clue. Basically I trust Bloom & will just assume that whatever he does/doesn't do is awesome.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,015
It's probably partially my oldness talking & reluctance to call a lifetime .211 hitter "great".

He's had an interesting set of streaks this year. Was meh until the sticky crackdown, then went on a huge tear, then has been pretty bad in a small sample since the HR derby.

But yeah, he's 12th in WAR this season & has obviously been very good.
He's an incredibly streaky player in general. Not just this year. (He has some JBJ hot/cold stretches). I'd imagine most .211 hitters are streaky. The difference between hot and cold is hitting .240 vs hitting .170. His season to date he's been great though. He's also walking considerably more and has hit .222 over the last 3 years, after hitting .203 in his first 4. His career high in BB is 75 in 532 PA in 2017. He had 74 in 577 the following this year. He currently has 74 in 388 PA this year. The batting average could very well be (and probably is) noise. The walks aren't.

Batting average is weird. It was overrated for a very long time but we may have shifted to the point it is underrated. An empty .300 hitter would have value today.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
17,012
Maine
Also if there's no trade imminent he should pitch.
Exactly. If he's pitching today, that's arguably a leverage point for the Nats. If teams aren't willing to meet their asking price, they're content to hold on to him and keep running him out there like they have for the last six and a half years. If they hold him out just in case of a trade, they appear anxious/desperate to get a deal done, perhaps at a lower price.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,015
Exactly. If he's pitching today, that's arguably a leverage point for the Nats. If teams aren't willing to meet their asking price, they're content to hold on to him and keep running him out there like they have for the last six and a half years. If they hold him out just in case of a trade, they appear anxious/desperate to get a deal done, perhaps at a lower price.
Or that they don't want to risk any type of injury. At least I always thought that was the reason they were held out.
 

shanks

lurker
Feb 10, 2006
48
bk, ny
re: max scherzer. what are the vegas odds he makes it through this full start? i bet a $1 that he gets through 2 w/ 0-1 hit and a few strike outs and he gets pulled…causing all the sites to crash at once.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
78,045
Oregon
Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are not in the Cubs lineup today
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
2,997
Hand goes to Toronto for catcher Riley Adams, a bat-first catcher and the Jays’ #20 prospect. If near-MLB-ready catchers were trade targets for them in a possible Scherzer deal as reported in the Athletic yesterday, they could be less interested in Ronaldo Hernandez now that they got this guy.
 

brandonchristensen

bad at game threads
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
33,752
Hand goes to Toronto for catcher Riley Adams, a bat-first catcher and the Jays’ #20 prospect. If near-MLB-ready catchers were trade targets for them in a possible Scherzer deal as reported in the Athletic yesterday, they could be less interested in Ronaldo Hernandez now that they got this guy.
Any time I’ve watched Hand pitch, he’s blown it against the team I wanted to lose.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
17,012
Maine
Or that they don't want to risk any type of injury. At least I always thought that was the reason they were held out.
Sure, guys get held out or pulled out when there's a trade imminent. But if nothing's imminent, or at least if the Nats don't feel like there's anything imminent, why should they hold him out of what is his normal day of work? Particularly if they've got a double header and they're already having to come up with one extra starter for the day.
 
Jul 27, 2021
66
It's gotta be totally different being a Yankees fan. When most teams are bad, including Boston, they are just bad. When the Yankees are bad, they don't hesitate to send out prospects like they are candy for a .223 power hitter who fills one of the ~4 holes in their lineup.

Wild.
They arent bad. They havent had a bad team for a long time. They havent had a losing season in almost 30 years.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
6,453
Hand's rate stats are all down considerably and his FIP is 4.33. Relivers are tricky with SSS and all but I'm leaning toward just another guy status at this point.
 
Jul 27, 2021
66
It's probably partially my oldness talking & reluctance to call a lifetime .211 hitter "great".

He's had an interesting set of streaks this year. Was meh until the sticky crackdown, then went on a huge tear, then has been pretty bad in a small sample since the HR derby.

But yeah, he's 12th in WAR this season & has obviously been very good.
And they got him for just four yutes.
 
Jul 27, 2021
66
I think that's kind of his point. The Yankees don't sacrifice for a year.

I actually disagree though. 2016 and 2017 were supposed to be rebuild years. We just happened to strike gold early.
I find it amazing that so many Yankee fans (present company excluded of course) want to see Cashman gone. He has done an incredible job overall. I know they havent won as many WS titles but the playoffs are a crapshoot.
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

Member
SoSH Member
May 5, 2017
1,451
Hand is so streaky, you run a high risk of having a closer who's pretty much unusable for a couple of months… if I'm a contending team, I don't want one of those months to be October.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
20,720
Garden City
I find it amazing that so many Yankee fans (present company excluded of course) want to see Cashman gone. He has done an incredible job overall. I know they havent won as many WS titles but the playoffs are a crapshoot.
There is an overarching general point that they have with which I would say I agree. Their point is "put your money where you mouth is and show us some championships." Everything else the radio callers typically say is insane. I mean, yesterday someone called up WFAN and said they have a trade idea to fix this team, Stanton for Harper.

Besides that, the Yankees fan base that is most vocal is very anti-analytics. For that, they hate Boone and Cashman.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,571
The fact that he explicitly said no to the New York Yankees but would come to Boston makes me want him. Send them Groome, Seabold, and somebody else.
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
21,971
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
I'm just not feeling a massive add here. Ownership brought Bloom in for a reason, and pressuring him to be something he is not doesnt seem like it would end well.

Still say bullpen and 1B is as far as he goes, but maybe I will be shocked.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
78,045
Oregon
I think I would have held Scherzer back today if I were the Nationals. Removing a pitcher mid-game is so totally different than pulling a position player that I'd just avoid the hassle and pitch him Saturday if he wasn't dealt. And, of course, the possibility of injury would be a huge missed opportunity
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
20,720
Garden City
I think I would have held Scherzer back today if I were the Nationals. Removing a pitcher mid-game is so totally different than pulling a position player that I'd just avoid the hassle and pitch him Saturday if he wasn't dealt. And, of course, the possibility of injury would be a huge missed opportunity
On the other hand, a team trading for Scherzer could be skeptical that holding him back is due to injury?
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
20,720
Garden City
He obviously doesn't want to go to New York. I do wonder besides them being a 1st place team what intrigues Scherzer about Boston. Is he close with players on the team? Does he have interest in signing here in FA and wants to get a taste of Boston?
They're in first and he wants to win? You've got a hell of a lot better chance going to Boston than the Yankees based on the standings. But alas, there will also always be players who grew up hating the Yankees and wouldn't want to come here.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
16,904
St. Louis, MO
He obviously doesn't want to go to New York. I do wonder besides them being a 1st place team what intrigues Scherzer about Boston. Is he close with players on the team? Does he have interest in signing here in FA and wants to get a taste of Boston?
I think simply because he knows they can win a ring this year. And maybe he wants to pitch with Sale.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
17,857
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Exactly. If he's pitching today, that's arguably a leverage point for the Nats. If teams aren't willing to meet their asking price, they're content to hold on to him and keep running him out there like they have for the last six and a half years. If they hold him out just in case of a trade, they appear anxious/desperate to get a deal done, perhaps at a lower price.
Or the acquiring team gets him with some extra rest and the flexibility to slot him anywhere in their rotation they wish, adding to his value.

(Not directed at you, personally, but IMO, many people have ideas about "what looks strong" and "what looks weak" in all sorts of negotiations, and (again purely IMO) most of that's just wish-casting by one party or another. If you identify the factors for a deal/resolution, those don't change depending on who picks up the phone first.)
 

IpswichSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
2,697
Suburbs of Washington, DC
I'm just not feeling a massive add here. Ownership brought Bloom in for a reason, and pressuring him to be something he is not doesnt seem like it would end well.

Still say bullpen and 1B is as far as he goes, but maybe I will be shocked.
Just speculating, but I don't think ownership today would pressure Bloom in the same way Lucchino probably did countless times before with previous GMs. But let's face it, the team has likely advanced beyond the internal projections, and it's a legitimate discussion about how much you move now to strengthen a run this year. But this is the point, there's still a way to do that consistent with Chaim's overall effort to balance near term and longer term. These guys are smart enough to appropriately value opportunities. At least I think.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
1,865
I'm just not feeling a massive add here. Ownership brought Bloom in for a reason, and pressuring him to be something he is not doesnt seem like it would end well.

Still say bullpen and 1B is as far as he goes, but maybe I will be shocked.
I doubt he'd have gotten the hire if they felt he wasn't capable of making big trades when needed too.
 

PrometheusWakefield

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2009
10,072
Boston, MA
So, Scherzer for .5 years or Berrios for 1.5?

By FIP they aren't that different this year (3.47 for Scherzer versus 3.57 for Berrios). Add in the fact that Berrios is 10 years younger, I think maybe advantage Berrios.
 

StuckOnYouk

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
3,370
CT
I find it amazing that so many Yankee fans (present company excluded of course) want to see Cashman gone. He has done an incredible job overall. I know they havent won as many WS titles but the playoffs are a crapshoot.
Is it really true the playoffs are a crapshoot? So there is no recipe toward the type of teams that generally win the WS?

I never bought that back when Beane or even Theo said it. I get why the FO folks want to put that out there - it takes all the pressure off them, making it sound like its literally just picking out of a hat. Which to me is BS.