Trade deadline

ehaz

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Lol how does this stuff happen without tampering? Can we just have Sale give Max a phone call?
 

YTF

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cantor44

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I'm also one who doesn't think the Red Sox bullpen is that great...or reliable.

The bullpen stat I pay attenion to is WHIP (because we all know that bullpen ERA is meaningless and the whole point of a reliever is to avoid putting men on).

The Red Sox are currently 17th in WHIP, below the following AL Teams (in order)
  • Tampa (1.13)
  • NYY (1.19)
  • Seattle
  • Oakland
  • Cleveland
  • Toronto
  • Houston
  • Texas (for crying out loud)
  • Boston (1.35)
That includes all 5 competitors for the WC spot.

The Bostons break out this way:
Barnes: .833
Sawamura: 1.248
Ottavino: 1.355
Taylor: 1.412
Darwinzon: 1.515
...Thankfully Whitlock: 1.042

Tampa?
Castillo: .991
Kittredge: .869
Thompson: 1.029
Springs: 1.031
Fairbanks: 1.290

That's a hell of a base bullpen

I don't know how I'd fix it, or if that's even possible - but the Red Sox could definitely benefit from some better arms out there, even conceding that Taylor is better than his numbers suggest
You may be on to something there. By that token though:

Eovaldi 1.18
Pivetta 1.34
Erod 1.35
Perez 1.47
Richards 1.63

Houck 1.17 (!! - but SSS)

Taylors WHIP by month: April - 2.46, May - .88, June .77, July 1.58 (though most of that was in one outing) ...

Anyway, it seems anyway you slice they need an arm, starter or pen ....
 

nvalvo

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It is very sad that Hosmer is a legitimate upgrade for the Red Sox at 1B.
It is also very unlikely that the Red Sox match up with the Padres on this because the Padres are looking to trade him because they are up against the threshold.
The value of trading for Hosmer as an upgrade is much less than absorbing Hosmer for an A+ prospect. If you could do both then the trade might make sense for the Sox. Without the space under the threshold to do that it makes no sense for them, especially when there are multiple other options for upgrading at that position without taking on that much salary.
We can do both. Why would Boston be constrained by the CBT threshold? We reset last year.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm also one who doesn't think the Red Sox bullpen is that great...or reliable.

The bullpen stat I pay attenion to is WHIP (because we all know that bullpen ERA is meaningless and the whole point of a reliever is to avoid putting men on).
The whole point of a reliever is to prevent runs from scoring, just like it is with starters. Now, relievers sometimes come into games with runners on, so they can give up runs without it being attached to their own ERA, so yes, era means less for relievers than for starters, but still, their job is to prevent runs from scoring, above and beyond anything else.
 

Niastri

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We can do both. Why would Boston be constrained by the CBT threshold? We reset last year.
I'm curious about this as well... Didn't we throw a pizza party when we confirmed we were reset last season? Isn't that so we could spend more of Henry's money once we had a chance to win again?

I'm all for Bloom not GFIN for baseball reasons, but tax shouldn't be an issue.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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You may be on to something there. By that token though:

Eovaldi 1.18
Pivetta 1.34
Erod 1.35
Perez 1.47
Richards 1.63

Houck 1.17 (!! - but SSS)

Taylors WHIP by month: April - 2.46, May - .88, June .77, July 1.58 (though most of that was in one outing) ...

Anyway, it seems anyway you slice they need an arm, starter or pen ....
I also think the value of WHiP has changed a bit to a bend-but-don’t-break philosophy….
 

Niastri

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I think the Sox are asking their relievers to avoid hits at all costs. They are going for strikeouts and are ok with walks if it reduces hits. In this homerun/strikeout offensive environment, it makes sense to have that strategy.
 

Rovin Romine

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geoflin

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getting Abrams back as a trade chip gets us in the conversation for just about anyone else in baseball. He’s worth more than 1 1/2 years of Berrios.
Which is why SD won't trade him just to get rid of Hosmer.
 
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Mighty Joe Young

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Regarding Scherzer …has anyone actually looked at his contract? It runs until 2028 and he’s already 38.

https://theathletic.com/2732480/2021/07/27/rosenthal-trevor-story-max-scherzer-mlb-trade-deadline/?source=user_shared_article

The details in the story are a tad confusing but it sounds like the remaining portion of his contract is all deferred until 2028.

As with the amount the cap hit is also unclear … maybe 15m per year?

Sounds like a pretty risky proposition for a guy who could fall off the cliff at anytime.

Edit: should have checked Cots first .. damn you Rosenthal

He’s a FA next year

Go for it Chaim!

You guys are fast! I was editing when two posts arrived correcting my error!
 
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kelpapa

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Regarding Scherzer …has anyone actually looked at his contract? It runs until 2028 and he’s already 38.

https://theathletic.com/2732480/2021/07/27/rosenthal-trevor-story-max-scherzer-mlb-trade-deadline/?source=user_shared_article

The details in the story are a tad confusing but it sounds like the remaining portion of his contract is all deferred until 2028.

As with the amount the cap hit is also unclear … maybe 15m per year?

Sounds like a pretty risky proposition for a guy who could fall off the cliff at anytime.
He's a free agent after this year per baseball reference.

Part of his contract is deferred
 

nazz45

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Regarding Scherzer …has anyone actually looked at his contract? It runs until 2028 and he’s already 38.

https://theathletic.com/2732480/2021/07/27/rosenthal-trevor-story-max-scherzer-mlb-trade-deadline/?source=user_shared_article

The details in the story are a tad confusing but it sounds like the remaining portion of his contract is all deferred until 2028.

As with the amount the cap hit is also unclear … maybe 15m per year?

Sounds like a pretty risky proposition for a guy who could fall off the cliff at anytime.
He's a pending FA. Washington would be on the hook for nearly all the deferred salary. But the new team would be responsible for some of his deferred salary for 2028 (which impacts the 2021 CBT):

Here’s what a new team would inherit (aside from a Hall of Fame-caliber ace): About a third of Scherzer’s $35 million salary to be paid in 2028, when inflation would lower the overall value of that amount. But it would shoulder about a $12 million hit toward the competitive balance tax threshold for 2021, since that is determined by the average annual value of a contract, not what a club owes a player in a specific year. That could deter teams that don’t want to exceed the tax threshold and pay overage fees this year. These terms were first reported by the Athletic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/07/27/nationals-trade-deadline-sell-off-max-scherzer-deal/
He's not quite in Bobby Bonilla territory.
 

rhswanzey

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Apologies if this shouldn’t be in the trade deadline thread - I think it’s pertinent, because it makes the case for cashing in Duran (for Scherzer - not trading Duran for the sake of it) more credible

Kike is the 5th most valuable defender in the AL, per Fangraphs. He’s behind Myles Straw, Semien, Correa and Chapman. Among all MLB outfielders, he’s third behind JBJ and Straw.

Arroyo doesn’t have enough PA (170) to qualify. Drop the minimum PA threshold, and he’s comfortably positive on defense, placing ninth among second basemen in MLB, in less playing time than all but one of the guys ahead of him. (By the way, prorate Arroyo to about 550 PA, and he’s a four win player this year).

My question is: how much does Duran need to hit to offset downgrading defensively at both 2B and CF, and is that bar a reasonable expectation? He’s probably going to be a good regular for several years. But this year? The kid’s not a butcher, but he’s not a plus defender in the outfield. He’s going to strike out a lot. I don’t think it’s any sure thing that he’s starting in this team’s best lineup.

Anyway, Scherzer is still probably a reach, but if it doesn’t happen, I hope it’s not because we refused to consider moving Duran. Our starting center fielder is under contract for 2022...
 

cantor44

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Apologies if this shouldn’t be in the trade deadline thread - I think it’s pertinent, because it makes the case for cashing in Duran (for Scherzer - not trading Duran for the sake of it) more credible

Kike is the 5th most valuable defender in the AL, per Fangraphs. He’s behind Myles Straw, Semien, Correa and Chapman. Among all MLB outfielders, he’s third behind JBJ and Straw.

Arroyo doesn’t have enough PA (170) to qualify. Drop the minimum PA threshold, and he’s comfortably positive on defense, placing ninth among second basemen in MLB, in less playing time than all but one of the guys ahead of him. (By the way, prorate Arroyo to about 550 PA, and he’s a four win player this year).

My question is: how much does Duran need to hit to offset downgrading defensively at both 2B and CF, and is that bar a reasonable expectation? He’s probably going to be a good regular for several years. But this year? The kid’s not a butcher, but he’s not a plus defender in the outfield. He’s going to strike out a lot. I don’t think it’s any sure thing that he’s starting in this team’s best lineup.

Anyway, Scherzer is still probably a reach, but if it doesn’t happen, I hope it’s not because we refused to consider moving Duran. Our starting center fielder is under contract for 2022...
Good questions. But obviously Bloom is also considering Duran's potential beyond this year. There could be an eventuality in which Duran is on the team but not starting in the post season, if Arroyo comes back healthy ...
 

YTF

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Good questions. But obviously Bloom is also considering Duran's potential beyond this year. There could be an eventuality in which Duran is on the team but not starting in the post season, if Arroyo comes back healthy ...
I don't know that it happens, but in a scenario where Chaim's able to swing a deal for Starling Marte (with or without Aguilar) Duran may not even make the post season roster.
 

grimshaw

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No, you release him.. unfortunately the Sox care more about his AAV than salary, which is going to work against us here.
Right, but there is virtually no history of the Red Sox doing that and it is very rare in baseball. They have ridden out some truly shitty contracts.

I do think they badly need a cost controlled starter, or blue chipper which was impossible when Bloom started. It's possible they could pull it off now.
 

Manramsclan

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We can do both. Why would Boston be constrained by the CBT threshold? We reset last year.
Because Hosmer's salary isn't just this year. Taking on $21 Million for next year and $13 Million for three years after that will impact roster construction negatively for the next 4 seasons. We would be right back in the position we were in when we had to trade Mookie. Having too much money committed to older players that would keep us from extending or paying the younger, better players that we have.

Next year is the first where $13 Million of Pedroia's dead money is off the books. Why would the Red Sox want to throw another potential corpse onto their roster who costs MORE than that?
 

Auger34

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When Putzy McScouty drafted Mitch Moreland in 2007, he said he thought Mitch might have "the best cheekbones of anyone I've ever drafted." From the texts received from Boston, one sense they would like to see him in San Diego for 2+months, especially if a juicy prospect was coming the other way.
Grammar and spelling are both wayyyyy too good for this to be a Gammo
 

nvalvo

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Because Hosmer's salary isn't just this year. Taking on $21 Million for next year and $13 Million for three years after that will impact roster construction negatively for the next 4 seasons. We would be right back in the position we were in when we had to trade Mookie. Having too much money committed to older players that would keep us from extending or paying the younger, better players that we have.

Next year is the first where $13 Million of Pedroia's dead money is off the books. Why would the Red Sox want to throw another potential corpse onto their roster who costs MORE than that?
In this scenario, we’re acquiring a pre-FA ace or near-ace for well under market rate using a prospect we’re getting by agreeing to pay Hosmer more than his on-field performance is worth. We wouldn't be acquiring Hosmer because we like him especially or think his contract is a good value. He's a first baseman with a .770 career OPS who is paid like he's a first baseman with an .870 career OPS. We'd be acquiring him because the Padres want to give us (say) Luis Campusano (and likely some money) to take him, and we can bundle Campusano with (say) Aldo Ramirez and Cam Cannon to acquire Berríos (or a comparable starter).

The thinking is that (Berríos' considerable on-field value + Hosmer's meager on-field value) / (Berríos' reasonable arb awards + Hosmer's obscene paycheck – whatever the Padres kick in) will be a desirable value proposition, when you consider that Hosmer would be an upgrade for the 2021 and likely the 2022 team. If/when Casas is ready, I'd either release him, or kick in a few more dollars and trade him again to serve as a veteran presence on a rebuilding team. The AAV hit would likely be smaller than the $18m listed.

Few prospects are worth the $50 million or so that Hosmer's deal is under water; if it's Abrams coming with him, maybe we're taking all the money, but if it's only Gore or Campusano, the Padres would need to kick in $20-30m to make the deal make sense for Boston. That would cut the AAV down to something more palatable.

If we cannot get such a prospect, or if that prospect does not in fact fetch a Castillo- or Berrios-tier pitcher, or if San Diego can't cut down the AAV by a reasonable amount, then it's a bad deal and no one's interested. But we're not acquiring Hosmer just to acquire Hosmer. We're acquiring Hosmer to acquire 2+ seasons of ace-type production at a good price.
 

OCD SS

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Right, but there is virtually no history of the Red Sox doing that and it is very rare in baseball. They have ridden out some truly shitty contracts.

I do think they badly need a cost controlled starter, or blue chipper which was impossible when Bloom started. It's possible they could pull it off now.
That the Sox haven’t done this probably doesn’t indicate a ton with Bloom not having a track record now, but that it happens less frequently across MLB is probably a point towards owners looking at sunk costs a little different than we do (probably since it’s their money). That it took Pujols so long to get released is a good example…

I’ve never been a fan of Hosmer, and his deal looked bad when it was signed (I mean more than your “typical” $100M+contract). It looks like it’s set up to dump him to a smaller market team, but the Sox will care about his AAV, which is the inverse of Wil Meyers; I just don’t think the $ work for the Sox, especially over 4 more years. Even with a top prospect stapled to him, it looks like a better bet for the Sox to use a Franchy & Bobby platoon at 1B…
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm all for Bloom not GFIN for baseball reasons, but tax shouldn't be an issue.
Luxury tax impacts ARE baseball reasons in today's MLB economy. (I recognize you're trying to distinguish on-field factors from economics, but they're on equal footing these days)

Others are made the point about contracts and salaries affecting future years, and that's not something to be taken lightly. A big reason the Red Sox exceeded the tax threshold by so much in 2017-2018-2019 was dead money on the books (Sandoval, Hanley, Pedroia, etc). Sometimes dead money can't be helped (Pedroia's contract was not a bad decision), but adding payroll just because they reset the tax and they have the room, particularly for a modest upgrade to a position that could be dealt with in other ways, is a good way to end up back in luxury tax hell.
 

JimD

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Any discussion about the luxury tax needs to also acknowledge that nobody can say with certainty what the tax structure will look like after the next CBA is hammered out this winter. It would be risky for a team near the top of the MLB salary heap to add significant payroll right now and certainly a factor that a GM of such a team will be weighing carefully.

YMMV, but after four WS titles in the last two decades, and with the team once again heading in the right direction with a very promising young executive at the helm, I'm OK if Bloom & the Gang decide to pass on a big splash like Scherzer and instead bring in the next Eyechart or Peavy at the deadline and roll the dice with this team largely as constructed. In Chaim I trust.
 

Van Everyman

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Same. For that matter, the holes on this team are clear, somewhat manageable and mitigated by the fact that Sale’s return will be at least as impactful as any realistic acquisition they’d make in the rotation.


In Chaim I trust.
Yep
 

YTF

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Luxury tax impacts ARE baseball reasons in today's MLB economy. (I recognize you're trying to distinguish on-field factors from economics, but they're on equal footing these days)

Others are made the point about contracts and salaries affecting future years, and that's not something to be taken lightly. A big reason the Red Sox exceeded the tax threshold by so much in 2017-2018-2019 was dead money on the books (Sandoval, Hanley, Pedroia, etc). Sometimes dead money can't be helped (Pedroia's contract was not a bad decision), but adding payroll just because they reset the tax and they have the room, particularly for a modest upgrade to a position that could be dealt with in other ways, is a good way to end up back in luxury tax hell.
To add to this if I might, I think many fans forget that a part of that economy is the huge loss of revenue due to co-vid last season as well as the early part of this season.
 

BaseballJones

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Duran hasn't done too much yet but obviously it's very SSS. Houck is a superb addition, and Sale should be as good an addition as any team could possibly add, and at no cost to the Sox.

Of course I'd love to see another solid, long-term starter acquired, and the big hole right now is 1b, but that should be filled relatively inexpensively, I should think.

Verdugo showing signs of life again (7-19, 2 2b, 1 hr, .368/.368/.632/1.000 over his last 5 games) is encouraging. The lineup on the whole looks good, with 7 guys sporting an ops+ of over 100, and 3 of them over 137. Replacing Dalbec with Aguilar or Rizzo would make a potentially huge difference though. That's probably where the main effort should be, and again, it probably can be done relatively inexpensively.

If they can get either of those guys for a reasonable package, then the Sox would be replacing a 74 ops+ at 1b with a 114 ops+ or better. That's a huge upgrade. And if Sale is SALE, that bumps Richards out of the rotation. And suddenly the rotation looks like this:

From
1. Eovaldi
2. Rodriguez
3. Pivetta
4. Perez
5. Richards

To
1. Sale
2. Eovaldi
3. Rodriguez
4. Pivetta
5. Perez

And Richards either moves to the bullpen or gets DFA'd or something. Either way that's a huge upgrade to the rotation and it looks a LOT stronger. Houck then slides into the bullpen where he can be an absolute monster, and he'd replace the worst guy in the pen, and that would be a major upgrade there.

Lots can go wrong. But overall the team is in pretty good shape, and one key 1b addition would do wonders for them.
 

Apisith

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This team has been really fun to watch but we’re 5 games better than our Pythagorean W-L record. We’re 5th in the AL, ranked below the Astros, White Sox, Rays and Blue Jays. I don’t know whether it’s Cora magic but in 2018 we were also 5 games better than our Pythag W-L record. So I don’t know what the true level of talent of the team is, and whether adding Sale, Houck and Duran means that the true level of talent is going to be higher regardless of whether we add anyone.
 

cornwalls@6

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Any discussion about the luxury tax needs to also acknowledge that nobody can say with certainty what the tax structure will look like after the next CBA is hammered out this winter. It would be risky for a team near the top of the MLB salary heap to add significant payroll right now and certainly a factor that a GM of such a team will be weighing carefully.

YMMV, but after four WS titles in the last two decades, and with the team once again heading in the right direction with a very promising young executive at the helm, I'm OK if Bloom & the Gang decide to pass on a big splash like Scherzer and instead bring in the next Eyechart or Peavy at the deadline and roll the dice with this team largely as constructed. In Chaim I trust.
Agree. I love Scherzer, and would love to see him pitch for the Red Sox, but the cost in terms of prospects and potential tax ramifications just doesn't make sense for this ball club right now. The potential/hopeful return of a very effective Sale, the hopeful continued emergence of Houck, and the overall quality of the pen, have me more than willing to take our chances with this club has constructed, with the addition of a cost sensible 1b bat, and an arm or two. With the knowledge that depending on the CBA, we could be in strong position to add a bigger external acquisition next year and/or beyond.
 

IpswichSox

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Customary caveats that this is from Jim Bowden:

Bowden: I was also told to keep an eye on the Boston Red Sox re: Scherzer. Apparently the ownership in Boston is really pushing Chaim Bloom to make an aggressive run at Scherzer with the idea that they're going to get Chris Sale back, and combining Sale and Scherzer, the ownership really likes the chances of winning the World Series.


View: https://twitter.com/CBSSportsHQ/status/1420375872708751364
 

cantor44

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Agree. I love Scherzer, and would love to see him pitch for the Red Sox, but the cost in terms of prospects and potential tax ramifications just doesn't make sense for this ball club right now. The potential/hopeful return of a very effective Sale, the hopeful continued emergence of Houck, and the overall quality of the pen, have me more than willing to take our chances with this club has constructed, with the addition of a cost sensible 1b bat, and an arm or two. With the knowledge that depending on the CBA, we could be in strong position to add a bigger external acquisition next year and/or beyond.
It may be so that in the total picture acquiring Scherzer doesn't make sense ... Though I do refer to Apisith's post above about how the team is over their pythag. It is an exciting, fun group, but there really could be regression to the mean here (I said the same thing about the 2013 team and it never happened). The "arm or two" you speak may not have to be Scherzer, but I hope is more than Peavy. I think the team needs it. In any case, if you add Sale and say, Berrios (let a man dream), you are also bolstering the bullpen by adding Houck and Pivetta or Perez, and subsequently trimming the weakest links from the roster ...

They are CLOSE. But do win it all, they need reinforcements. Ironically, though framed as rebuild year, the window on the current excellent core of this club may be closed by the end of the 2022. GFIN and take advantage of the Devers-Bogaerts-Martinez middle of the order ... this could be it for them.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Rizzo seems to make too much sense for that not to happen - has history here, perfectly fits a need, and is a FA at year’s end so the Sox won’t have to give up a ton and they can reasses the 1B situation in the off-season. Only way it doesn’t happen, I think, is it some other team gets really desperate and gives Chicago an offer they can’t refuse.

The more interesting question is whether there is some trade to be worked out where the Sox get Rizzo and Kimbrel. I suspect Kimbrel will cost a lot more because teams are always desperate for relievers (and the Sox aren’t, really) and I’m not even sure where exactly Kimbrel would slot into our bullpen (I sure as hell wouldn’t want him taking closing duties away from Barnes) so it seems unlikely, but it’s an intriguing scenario since they play for the same team and are both plausible candidates for Boston to target.

As for Scherzer, I’d pass - the price is just going to be too high. This isn’t the 2018 Sox where they are so good that there is no reason not to go completely all in - the Sox are very good this year but not so good that I’d want to blow up the farm to get a half-year of Scherzer. I mean it’s not that implausible to imagine a scenario where they trade Duran+ or whatever to get Scherzer but nonetheless barely lose the division to the Rays and lose the wild card game, which would be a major setback to the work they’ve done building up the farm system in recent years.
 

bosockboy

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Customary caveats that this is from Jim Bowden:

Bowden: I was also told to keep an eye on the Boston Red Sox re: Scherzer. Apparently the ownership in Boston is really pushing Chaim Bloom to make an aggressive run at Scherzer with the idea that they're going to get Chris Sale back, and combining Sale and Scherzer, the ownership really likes the chances of winning the World Series.


View: https://twitter.com/CBSSportsHQ/status/1420375872708751364
At minimum I think this says Chaim doesn’t have any financial handcuffs.
 

geoduck no quahog

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If Fangraphs can be trusted, it looks like Tampa still has the highest rated farm system in MLB, followed by Batimore. Yankees show as #4 and Toronto as #7. (Red Sox #13)

My point is that 2021 could very well be the best window Boston has for advancing deep into the playoffs. Even without those ratings, Tampa and Toronto are 2 teams that should scare everyone in the near future, particularly Toronto.

Circumstances have aligned to make this a GFIN year. They should GFIN.
 

RedOctober3829

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At minimum I think this says Chaim doesn’t have any financial handcuffs.
Jared Carrabis was on The Baseball Hour last night with Mazz and Mazz pressed him on what he knew about what the Red Sox were doing as he had posted a set of cryptic tweets. Carrabis on Scherzer said that he went into the deadline thinking they had absolutely no chance at Scherzer because the impression is that Bloom wouldn't give up the prospect capital to do so. But, after talking to sources he said that what he thought going in was not actually the case and that they are definitely in on him and that it may be a possibility. He compared it to asking your parents for something and expecting a no but then getting a maybe.
 

grimshaw

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In regards to the Sox not having room in the pen, they can also move a reliever or two to NL teams, and then upgrade to Kimbrel. The Yankees just moved a few of their guys but aren't punting. Darwinzon could probably get a few depth type prospects.

I don't think it's a coincidence that they re-signed Barnes weeks before the trade season started so if a closer type came in via trade, it was already communicated to him what his role would be. Kimbrel is a creature of habit who probably wouldn't flourish as a pen ace, but I haven't gotten that sense with Barnes that he minds when he pitches.
 
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RedOctober3829

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Alex Speier's latest on the deadline

According to multiple major league sources, the Red Sox are taking a broad-ranging approach to their discussions with other teams. They’re open to adding rental players who would be eligible for free agency after this year as well as players who would come with additional seasons of team control. At a time when their projected payroll is approaching the $210 million luxury-tax threshold, the team also hasn’t ruled out taking on salary to go over that mark.
Further evidence of that open-mindedness: According to Jayson Stark of The Athletic, the Red Sox are one of eight teams discussing a trade for Nationals ace Max Scherzer. Even with Chris Sale coming back — Bloom told NESN that it “isn’t out of the question” that the lefthander could return to the big leagues after two more rehab starts — the Sox seem determined to at least explore difference-makers.
At least modest upgrades, starting with bullpen help, seem likely. But an element of unknown possibility hovers over the Sox between now and Friday.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/27/sports/red-sox-might-look-different-after-fridays-trade-deadline/?event=event25
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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At minimum I think this says Chaim doesn’t have any financial handcuffs.
It's Jim Bowden, so I take it with a grain of salt.

But even if we take it at face value, having the green light to aggressively pursue Scherzer doesn't mean there's a green light to spend aggressively elsewhere. Scherzer, with his contract, might be a unique case. He may add to the luxury tax payroll but he doesn't cost any real dollars until down the road. That trade off might be palatable to the owners where something like Hosmer* wouldn't.

* Hosmer should be a non-starter anyway, but just throwing him out as an expensive example.
 

YTF

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If Fangraphs can be trusted, it looks like Tampa still has the highest rated farm system in MLB, followed by Batimore. Yankees show as #4 and Toronto as #7. (Red Sox #13)

My point is that 2021 could very well be the best window Boston has for advancing deep into the playoffs. Even without those ratings, Tampa and Toronto are 2 teams that should scare everyone in the near future, particularly Toronto.

Circumstances have aligned to make this a GFIN year. They should GFIN.
Yes, this was unexpected and a nice "problem" to have considering the need to restock the system with good young talent. The issue now is can you GFIN with restraint? What are the parameters with which Bloom will be allowed to work within. $$$? Minor league talent? One, the other or both? It will make a difference. If he can take on $$$, the hit to the farm may not be as bad, if not he's going to have to part with talent.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
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If Fangraphs can be trusted, it looks like Tampa still has the highest rated farm system in MLB, followed by Batimore. Yankees show as #4 and Toronto as #7. (Red Sox #13)

My point is that 2021 could very well be the best window Boston has for advancing deep into the playoffs. Even without those ratings, Tampa and Toronto are 2 teams that should scare everyone in the near future, particularly Toronto.

Circumstances have aligned to make this a GFIN year. They should GFIN.
Yes and yes. A clear eyed view sees this: a supreme core potentially nearing the end of its run maybe after this season and almost certainly after 2022, AND ... not a lot of ML ready blue chip players in the upper minors.

Chaim has rebuilt some depth on the farm ... but not many guys ready to step into Bogaerts/Martinez/Sale/Eovaldi roles right away (all those guys plus Erod and Kike and Ottavino and Vazquez might be gone by 2022). So, unless the team wants to rebuild via FA after 2022 and spend spend spend, then the ACTUAL rebuilding years might be 2023/24 rather than now.

Now? They have the second best record in baseball. They have some weaknesses. They have a stellar core at the end of their window. They are relatively healthy (with Sale coming). They are unshackled from LT considerations this season.

All that = GFIN.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
6,348
Yes, this was unexpected and a nice "problem" to have considering the need to restock the system with good young talent. The issue now is can you GFIN with restraint? What are the parameters with which Bloom will be allowed to work within. $$$? Minor league talent? One, the other or both? It will make a difference. If he can take on $$$, the hit to the farm may not be as bad, if not he's going to have to part with talent.
Circumstances are always about a deep system. Is top talent replaceable? For me... Duran is. My opinion from reading and reports is that Jimenez has a higher ceiling as a CF'er.
Nick Yorke can make Jeter Downs expendable. Adding Mayer makes a player like Lugo expendable (he likely already was).... Bloom has built up pitching depth pretty well too.
The only "untouchables" for me are Mayer, Bello, Houck and Casas. I have a Second Tier of guys I really don't want to move but would be okay with if they get utilized in the right deal
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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Because Hosmer's salary isn't just this year. Taking on $21 Million for next year and $13 Million for three years after that will impact roster construction negatively for the next 4 seasons. We would be right back in the position we were in when we had to trade Mookie. Having too much money committed to older players that would keep us from extending or paying the younger, better players that we have.

Next year is the first where $13 Million of Pedroia's dead money is off the books. Why would the Red Sox want to throw another potential corpse onto their roster who costs MORE than that?
nvalvo explained the theory behind a Hosmer deal really well above. I don’t like most scenarios involving Hosmer playing for the Red Sox and I’m cautiously optimistic Franchy is a good 1B solution, but we could afford to absorb his salary if it nets us a significant piece from SD. Assuming the most generous arb figures for Devers, Verdugo, Renfroe, Pivetta and Cordero, we’re still around $100-110M of committed money in 2023, $20M less if X opts out.

The Rizzo-to-Boston stuff is media gold, but his bat against RHP isn’t hugely different from Hosmer’s. Here are a few of the guys floated in this thread.

Expected wOBA v. RHP ‘20-21
Cron: .372
Gallo: .360
Santana: .358
Moran: .348
Rizzo: .345
Aguilar: .342
Hosmer: .341
Bell: .324
 

Apisith

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Oct 19, 2007
3,208
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Yes and yes. A clear eyed view sees this: a supreme core potentially nearing the end of its run maybe after this season and almost certainly after 2022, AND ... not a lot of ML ready blue chip players in the upper minors.

Chaim has rebuilt some depth on the farm ... but not many guys ready to step into Bogaerts/Martinez/Sale/Eovaldi roles right away (all those guys plus Erod and Kike and Ottavino and Vazquez might be gone by 2022). So, unless the team wants to rebuild via FA after 2022 and spend spend spend, then the ACTUAL rebuilding years might be 2023/24 rather than now.

Now? They have the second best record in baseball. They have some weaknesses. They have a stellar core at the end of their window. They are relatively healthy (with Sale coming). They are unshackled from LT considerations this season.

All that = GFIN.
Besides Devers, the rest of the core are being paid free agent salaries. We can definitely rebuild via FA if they leave because we’ll have the payroll room to do it, not that it’s what I’m suggesting to do. We’re not in the same position as 2018 when Betts was paid $10m for 10 wins and Benintendi was paid $500k for 5 wins. Then, not only were we already over the limit but we were getting ridiculous production from cost-controlled players. We had to go for it, no matter what.

In fact, with the Yankees and Dodgers both projected to be at or over the CBT limit next year and the year after, we might be the biggest fish in free agency next winter.
 

YTF

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Circumstances are always about a deep system. Is top talent replaceable? For me... Duran is. My opinion from reading and reports is that Jimenez has a higher ceiling as a CF'er.
Nick Yorke can make Jeter Downs expendable. Adding Mayer makes a player like Lugo expendable (he likely already was).... Bloom has built up pitching depth pretty well too.
The only "untouchables" for me are Mayer, Bello, Houck and Casas. I have a Second Tier of guys I really don't want to move but would be okay with if they get utilized in the right deal
And to take the Duran discussion in a different direction if I may for a moment. Even if he's deemed as not being replaceable, I don't necessarily seeing him as having the position locked down for the rest of this year. I have no issue with a guy like Marte coming in, Duran being sent back down if the numbers say he's the odd man out and being called back up in September to do what he can to help down the stretch. SSS for sure, but I've not seen anything yet to say that Duran is the best option if the team is in GFIN mode. ATM, with the deadline two days away, I'm not convinced Duran needs to be on any post season roster.
 

sean1562

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Sep 17, 2011
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What is the board's opinion of Rizzo as a trade and then sign candidate? He is a very valuable prospect right now but it seems based mostly on projection and not results to date. What kind of contract would Rizzo command? Low level prospects for Rizzo, re-sign him to 3-4 year deal, then flip Casas to the Twins for Berrios? Rizzo has been mediocre this season and was mediocre in the Covid shortened season last year but his age 24-29 seasons are basically Casas' ceiling. I don't see anything that jumps out looking at Rizzo's numbers that explain his slight downturn.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
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Besides Devers, the rest of the core are being paid free agent salaries. We can definitely rebuild via FA if they leave because we’ll have the payroll room to do it, not that it’s what I’m suggesting to do. We’re not in the same position as 2018 when Betts was paid $10m for 10 wins and Benintendi was paid $500k for 5 wins. Then, not only were we already over the limit but we were getting ridiculous production from cost-controlled players. We had to go for it, no matter what.

In fact, with the Yankees and Dodgers both projected to be at or over the CBT limit next year and the year after, we might be the biggest fish in free agency next winter.
Though the FA route - too many of them - risks being burdened with bloated contracts for aging players. I think a wise team picks their spots (you have to have a couple of these) and goes the rest of the way with young players from the farm and value finds ...I suppose that's obvious ....