Mods, merge this if you think it should go in an existing thread.
Thinking about the next shoe to drop. Gotta be signing Lester, but then a trade of their excess supply of OF and pitching prospects for hopefully a #2 caliber starter (or better). Looking at the possibilities, I think we're talking about Cespedes + a pitching prospect (Webster, etc.) for that guy. But what will that fetch? I'm thinking three criteria: (1) the SP needs to be a FA after 2015. (2) He needs to be good and so will likely command a pretty hefty salary in 2016 as a free agent, and (3) he needs to be on a team that probably isn't a top contender for 2015 (on paper), or at least needs offense more than SP.
So step 1: who is a FA in 2016 that's any good? http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/mlb/2016/starting-pitcher/ gives us a good list.
Buehrle, Tor
Zimmerman, Was
Kazmir, LAA
Gallardo, Mil
Cueto, Cin
Iwakuma, Sea
Lackey, StL
Samardzija, Oak
Norris, Bal
Price, Det
Porcello, Det
Medlen, Atl
Leake, Cin
Latos, Cin
Fister, Was
Guys I'd cross off the list right off the top, for various reasons:
- Cueto - probably not available
- Price - not sure Detroit would trade him to Boston
- Lackey - don't think StL would deal him to Boston after acquiring him; plus, he only makes $500k in 2015
- Buehrle - again, not sure Toronto would trade him to Boston
So that leaves: Zimmerman, Kazmir, Gallardo, Iwakuma, Samardzija, Norris, Porcello, Medlen, Leake, Latos, and Fister.
That's a pretty decent group of starters, actually. But let me narrow it down further. Here are four guys I don't want:
Norris
Porcello
Leake
Kazmir
I'm just not a fan of any of these guys and don't think any of them can be relied upon. Some others of you might feel the same way about Latos. I happen to think he's pretty solid. So we're down to this list (with some quick and dirty basic numbers):
Zimmerman - 14-5, 2.66 era, 1.07 whip, 182 k
Gallardo - 8-11, 3.51 era, 1.29 whip, 146 k
Iwakuma - 15-9, 3.52 era, 1.05 whip, 154 k
Samardzija - 7-13, 2.99 era, 1.07 whip, 202 k
Medlen - 15-12, 3.11 era, 1.22 whip, 157 k
Latos - 5-5, 3.25 era, 1.15 whip, 74 k
Fister - 16-6, 2.41 era, 1.08 whip, 98 k
The skinny on each situation:
- Zimmerman/Fister. Putting the two together since they're on the same team. The Nationals have quality OF already in Harper, Span, and Werth. So the Sox don't seem like a good fit in terms of what they have to offer.
- Gallardo. The Brewers have Gomez, Braun, and Khris Davis, a somewhat promising young OF who hit 22 homers last year (low OBP of .299). I don't see them looking at Cespedes as an upgrade in their OF.
- Iwakuma. Seattle has a glaring need in the OF, and a deal like this could really work for them. Cespedes gives them a big bat that they need in the lineup to support Seager. Iwakuma seems expendable for them, as they have dynamite SP.
- Samardzija. Tough to deal Cespedes right back to Oakland, but the reality is that their offense dropped off a lot without Cespedes. The problem here is that they already are losing Lester (almost certainly), and losing another top pitcher may be a real problem for them. However, if you gave them Cespedes and Webster, who might thrive in the canyons and huge foul territory of Oakland, for Shark, that might be a good deal for both teams. Still, I don't see it as likely given the first thing I said here.
- Latos. I see this as a real possibility. They could use a big bat and have four SP due to become FA after 2015. Giving them a young, cost-controlled pitcher like Webster in addition to the bat they need might make a lot of sense.
- Medlen. Atlanta looks to be shedding OF, not adding them. So Cespedes doesn't work for them. I'd love Medlen though. Quality pitcher, still just 29. Don't see it happening.
Long story short, I think Iwakuma is the most likely guy for Boston to get in a trade. Which would be just fine. He's a good pitcher. Career era+ of 120. Solid in every way. Latos or Leake would be next in line, IMO. Of course, I'd love for them to throw in a bit more (depending on what that bit is) to get Cueto. Cespedes + Webster + two more good (not elite) prospects (Ranaudo/Marrero?) for Cueto. Still might not be enough. But worth a push.
Thinking about the next shoe to drop. Gotta be signing Lester, but then a trade of their excess supply of OF and pitching prospects for hopefully a #2 caliber starter (or better). Looking at the possibilities, I think we're talking about Cespedes + a pitching prospect (Webster, etc.) for that guy. But what will that fetch? I'm thinking three criteria: (1) the SP needs to be a FA after 2015. (2) He needs to be good and so will likely command a pretty hefty salary in 2016 as a free agent, and (3) he needs to be on a team that probably isn't a top contender for 2015 (on paper), or at least needs offense more than SP.
So step 1: who is a FA in 2016 that's any good? http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/mlb/2016/starting-pitcher/ gives us a good list.
Buehrle, Tor
Zimmerman, Was
Kazmir, LAA
Gallardo, Mil
Cueto, Cin
Iwakuma, Sea
Lackey, StL
Samardzija, Oak
Norris, Bal
Price, Det
Porcello, Det
Medlen, Atl
Leake, Cin
Latos, Cin
Fister, Was
Guys I'd cross off the list right off the top, for various reasons:
- Cueto - probably not available
- Price - not sure Detroit would trade him to Boston
- Lackey - don't think StL would deal him to Boston after acquiring him; plus, he only makes $500k in 2015
- Buehrle - again, not sure Toronto would trade him to Boston
So that leaves: Zimmerman, Kazmir, Gallardo, Iwakuma, Samardzija, Norris, Porcello, Medlen, Leake, Latos, and Fister.
That's a pretty decent group of starters, actually. But let me narrow it down further. Here are four guys I don't want:
Norris
Porcello
Leake
Kazmir
I'm just not a fan of any of these guys and don't think any of them can be relied upon. Some others of you might feel the same way about Latos. I happen to think he's pretty solid. So we're down to this list (with some quick and dirty basic numbers):
Zimmerman - 14-5, 2.66 era, 1.07 whip, 182 k
Gallardo - 8-11, 3.51 era, 1.29 whip, 146 k
Iwakuma - 15-9, 3.52 era, 1.05 whip, 154 k
Samardzija - 7-13, 2.99 era, 1.07 whip, 202 k
Medlen - 15-12, 3.11 era, 1.22 whip, 157 k
Latos - 5-5, 3.25 era, 1.15 whip, 74 k
Fister - 16-6, 2.41 era, 1.08 whip, 98 k
The skinny on each situation:
- Zimmerman/Fister. Putting the two together since they're on the same team. The Nationals have quality OF already in Harper, Span, and Werth. So the Sox don't seem like a good fit in terms of what they have to offer.
- Gallardo. The Brewers have Gomez, Braun, and Khris Davis, a somewhat promising young OF who hit 22 homers last year (low OBP of .299). I don't see them looking at Cespedes as an upgrade in their OF.
- Iwakuma. Seattle has a glaring need in the OF, and a deal like this could really work for them. Cespedes gives them a big bat that they need in the lineup to support Seager. Iwakuma seems expendable for them, as they have dynamite SP.
- Samardzija. Tough to deal Cespedes right back to Oakland, but the reality is that their offense dropped off a lot without Cespedes. The problem here is that they already are losing Lester (almost certainly), and losing another top pitcher may be a real problem for them. However, if you gave them Cespedes and Webster, who might thrive in the canyons and huge foul territory of Oakland, for Shark, that might be a good deal for both teams. Still, I don't see it as likely given the first thing I said here.
- Latos. I see this as a real possibility. They could use a big bat and have four SP due to become FA after 2015. Giving them a young, cost-controlled pitcher like Webster in addition to the bat they need might make a lot of sense.
- Medlen. Atlanta looks to be shedding OF, not adding them. So Cespedes doesn't work for them. I'd love Medlen though. Quality pitcher, still just 29. Don't see it happening.
Long story short, I think Iwakuma is the most likely guy for Boston to get in a trade. Which would be just fine. He's a good pitcher. Career era+ of 120. Solid in every way. Latos or Leake would be next in line, IMO. Of course, I'd love for them to throw in a bit more (depending on what that bit is) to get Cueto. Cespedes + Webster + two more good (not elite) prospects (Ranaudo/Marrero?) for Cueto. Still might not be enough. But worth a push.
